STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 30

[ozymandius]

Thursday November 30, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 781 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2164 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1870 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1831
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 29, 2006

Dow... 12,226.73 +90.28 (+0.74%)
Nasdaq... 2,432.23 +19.62 (+0.81%)
S&P 500... 1,399.48 +12.76 (+0.92%)
Gold future... 641.80 -1.90 (-0.30%)
30-Year Bond 4.61% +0.02 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.52% +0.01 (+0.27%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

UPWARD REVISION IN 3RD QUARTER GDP LIFTS MARKETS
Economic Reports

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released the preliminary estimate for third quarter 2006 gross domestic product (GDP), which showed the economy grew 2.2% on an annualized basis, up from the advance estimate released last month that reported growth at 1.6%.

The markets responded favorably to today’s revision of 2.2%, which was larger than the consensus estimate (Thomson Financial Consensus) of 1.8%. The main contributing factors to the upwards revision came from lower imports, higher inventories and greater consumer spending on services that were somewhat offset by a downward revision to consumer spending on durable goods.

The largest drag on GDP was residential fixed investment, which was down an annualized 18% from the second quarter and has been in a downtrend since peaking in the second quarter of 2005.

-cut-

It’s not hard to understand the negative contributing trend to GDP from residential investment as housing continues its contraction. Much like the movie, The Perfect Storm (2000), where the fishermen saw a clearing in the clouds and thought they were going to make it out of the storm before the clouds closed once again, today’s release of new homes sales for October, which surprised to the downside with downward revisions to prior months, showed the housing storm clouds closing again after opening a bit in August and September with the housing sector still not out of the storm yet. New home sales fell 3.2% to 1.004 million annualized units in October, with the positive news in the report showing that the median price for a new single-family home rose 1.9% on a YOY basis. However, the months’ supply of homes rose to 7.0 in October from the upwardly revised 6.7 (previous 6.4) September reading. The increase in supply came from a 3.8% increase in completed homes for sale in October, with completed homes for sale up 33% over the past six months, which will continue to put downward pressure on prices.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/25
Briefing Forecast 310K
Market Expects 316K
Prior 321K

8:30 AM Personal Income Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.5%

8:30 AM Personal Spending Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.1%
Prior 0.1%

10:00 AM Chicago PMI Nov
Briefing Forecast 56.0
Market Expects 54.5
Prior 53.5

10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index Oct
Briefing Forecast 30
Market Expects 30
Prior 30

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

18. 8:30 Reports:

(adding line items on edit)

U.S. Oct. real consumer spending up 0.4%, best since July - 8:33 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. Oct. personal savings rate -0.6%, best since March - 8:33 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. core consumer prices up 2.4% in past year - 8:33 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. Oct. incomes up 0.4% vs. 0.5% expected - 8:32 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 36 seconds ago

U.S. Oct. core inflation up 0.2% vs. 0.1% expected - 8:31 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 1 minute ago

U.S. 4-wk avg. continuing jobless claims rise to 2.45 mln - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 52 seconds ago

U.S. Oct. real disposable incomes up 0.6% - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 52 seconds ago

U.S. 4-wk avg. continuing jobless claims rise to 2.45 mln - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 52 seconds ago

U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 45,000 to 2.48 million - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 52 seconds ago

U.S. 4-week avg. initial jobless claims up 7,250 to 325,000 - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 52 seconds ago

U.S. initial weekly jobless claims highest in more than year - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 52 seconds ago

U.S. initial weekly jobless claims rise 34,000 to 357,000 - 8:30 AM ET, Nov 30, 2006 - 52 seconds ago

[54anickel]

29. Jobless Claims Post Large Increase

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061130/jobless_claims.html?.v=1

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits posted an unexpectedly large increase last week.

The Labor Department reported that 357,000 newly laid off workers filed jobless claims, a rise of 34,000 from the previous week.

Many economists had been expecting claims to fall slightly. Labor Department analysts attributed part of the jump to seasonal adjustment factors.

The four-week moving average for claims, which is designed to smooth out week-to-week fluctuations, rose by 7,250 to 325,000, the highest level since June 3.

[54anickel]

33. RPT-U.S. Midwest business slows surprisingly in Nov (PMI 49.9)

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-11-30T150540Z_01_N30458200_RTRIDST_0_USA-ECONOMY-CHICAGO-PMI-URGENT-REPEAT.XML

CHICAGO, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Business activity in the U.S. Midwest contracted in November, confounding expectations for continued modest expansion, a report showed on Thursday.

The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago business barometer fell to 49.9 from 53.5 in October. Economists had forecast the index at 54.0.

A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Coming into November, the Chicago PMI had been above 50 for more than 3 1/2 years.

The employment component of the index fell to 49.4 from 57.0 in October. Prices paid eased to 60.2 from 62.5 and new orders fell to 52.0 from 54.1.

[54anickel]

34. Chicago PMI slows to lowest level since April 2003 (Surprise!)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB2C34F3E%2DEC26%2D48A8%2DA4E5%2D1A94D39C9294%7D&siteid=google

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Business activity in the Chicago region slowed to its lowest level in more than three years in November, according to Chicago purchasing managers index released Thursday. The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 49.9% in November from 53.5% in October. This is the lowest level since April 2003. The drop surprised economists, who were expecting the Chicago PMI index to rebound slightly to 54.4%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in the region. The employment index dropped to 49.4% from 57.0%. The prices paid index fell to 60.2% from 62.5% in October. The new orders index fell to 52.0% from 54.1%. Inventories fell to 57.7% from 67.2% in the previous month. The deliveries-diffusion index fell to 43.0% from 54.1%. This is the lowest since March 2001.

[UpInArms]

38. U.S. home prices rising at slowest pace in 8 years

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-home-prices-rising-slowest/story.aspx?guid=%7BB973C78F%2D2980%2D4DFC%2DAFAC%2DA620D8C84700%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home values increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, the slowest price appreciation since 1998, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday. Home prices are up 7.7% in the past year. Prices had risen 57% in the previous five years. Prices fell 0.6% in Michigan over the past year. Prices fell from the second quarter to the third quarter in five states: New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Idaho showed the fastest year-over-year growth at 17.5%. Prices fell quarter-to-quarter in more than half of the cities in California. Large price gains were seen in the cities hit by Hurricane Katrina.

(not really a "report" - but :blush: needed to cover up my duplication of 54anickel :hi:

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices at 2-month high above $62

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil climbed to a two-month high near $63 on Thursday, building on the previous session's gains after an unexpected drop in U.S. winter fuel stocks and signs of solid economic growth in the world's top consumer.

U.S. crude was up 11 cents at $62.57 a barrel at 1007 GMT. It earlier hit $62.68, its highest since October 2. Brent crude was up 39 cents at $63.46.

U.S. inventories of crude oil and refined products fell last week as imports eased and demand was robust, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday .

Distillate stocks, including home heating oil, fell by one million barrels. Analysts had expected a stock build.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/markets_oil_dc

[ozymandius]

4. Angola to ask for OPEC membership

LUANDA, Angola - Angola, Africa's largest sub-Saharan oil producer after Nigeria, will apply to join OPEC next month, the government said.

The government said in a statement late Wednesday the application stemmed from Angola's "growing role in the world oil sector."

Angola's crude production, most of it from offshore rigs operated by foreign companies, has climbed to around 1.4 million barrels a day but is expected to reach 2 million barrels a day by April next year. The southwest African country is China's largest supplier of crude.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061130/ap_on_bi_ge/angola_opec_1

[Ghost Dog]

60. Oil prices extend gains

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39051.4117592593-885247959&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

... Analysts at JP Morgan said crude prices were now set to test resistance in the $65 to $67 range and had the potential to move back towards $70 a barrel.

/..

[ozymandius]

5. Ask the expert: US capital markets (puke alert)

The committee on capital markets regulation, chaired by Glenn Hubbard, a former economic adviser to President George W. Bush, has recommended that companies and auditors should be better protected against costly shareholder lawsuits to stem the tide of litigation endangering the competitiveness of US markets.

The findings of the influential group are part of wide-ranging efforts by business leaders and politicians to rein in a regulatory and legal system they say is stifling the ability of the US to compete with financial centres such as London and Hong Kong.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20061130/bs_ft/fto113020060714176479

I'm sure this is something Lieberman can salivate over.

[ozymandius]

6. Stocks seen rising on strong retail sales

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock futures rose on Thursday, suggesting stocks may extend gains from the previous session, as retail stores including Costco Wholesale Corp. (Nasdaq:COST - news) and JoS. A. Bank Clothiers (Nasdaq:JOSB - news) reported strong November sales.

The sales reports provided important clues to the strength of consumer spending in the holiday shopping season. The Commerce Department was also due to release October personal income and consumption data at 8:30 a.m.

Shares of Costco rose 0.6 percent in European trading after the company said November sales at stores open at least a year rose 5 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/markets_stocks_dc

[ozymandius]

7. Stock futures up ahead of inflation data

LONDON - U.S. stock market futures advanced on Thursday as Microsoft rolls out an upgrade to its key operating system and before data likely to show declining inflation and a slower rate of retail sales growth.

S&P 500 futures rose 2.8 points at 1,405.00 and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 3.5 points at 1,799.25. Dow industrial futures rose 24 points.

-cut-

Companies meanwhile will be releasing same-store sales figures for November.

According to Thomson Financial, same-store sales in November probably rose 2.7 percent, below the 3.7 percent growth last year. Excluding Wal-Mart Stores Inc., however, same-store sales probably rose 4.8 percent, compared to 3.3 percent last year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061130/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.19 Change -0.30 (-0.36%)

British Pound Highest Since 1992...Where From Here?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/British_Pound_Highest_Since_1992___Where_1164889166362.html

EURUSD – The EURUSD has rallied to the 1.3200 figure again this morning. The pair has held below the 11/29 high at 1.3216 so far, giving scope to a short term lower swing high. A drop below 1.3130 would confirm the lower swing high and give scope to additional weakness. Price has come back to close below the upper Bollinger band (2 standard deviations) on the daily after spending 5 days outside the upper band. This could indicate that the move immediate move higher has exhausted itself and that a corrective move lower is due. The next measured objective for bulls would be the level where larger wave 5 (daily chart) would equal 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 at 1.3280.

<snip>

USDJPY – The USDJPY continues to range with the 38.2% fibo of 118.46-115.37 at 116.54 capping gains this morning. Since the 11/27 low at 115.37, the USDJPY has traced out a small flag (chart below), which gives scope to a continuation of weakness below 115.37. A break below 115.37 would shift focus to the 8/10 low at 114.65. However, a sustained break above 116.54 would negate the flag formation and suggest a deeper upward correction towards the 50% fibo at 116.91.

<snip>

GBPUSD – The Pound remains strong across the board. So strong in fact, that Cable reached prices this morning that haven’t been seen since Great Britain was part of the European Monetary Union. Oscillators on every time frame remain overbought and the short term time frames (hourly and 240 minute) show bearish divergence with oscillators. However, there is little confidence in a sustained move lower until price falls below 1.9433. The next upside target remains the point where wave 5 equals 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 – at 1.9732.

<snip>

USDCAD – The larger uptrend remains in place above the support line drawn off of the 9/1, 9/28 and 10/30 lows. However, this morning’s rally was rejected at the 1.1400 figure. Still, the rally from 1.1285 is in 5 waves, which favors a corrective move lower from near current levels to fibo support from 1.1362 (38.2% of 1.1285-1.1409) to 1.1333 (61.8%) before a more impressive rally takes place. A dip below 1.1285 would negate the bullish stance.

...more...

Ranges' Draw Pulling Dollar Back From Lows

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Ranges__Draw_Pulling_Dollar_Back_1164825152498.html

It seems the majors are back to their old ways. The second New York morning session stocked with market moving indicators has passed without a revival of last week’s spike in volatility. If fundamentals fail to rouse the anti-dollar momentum, the market could react to suggestions that the world’s largest currency is oversold.

Looking to price action, ranges were still intact, but momentum on the dollar favorable legs seemed to strengthen. For the EURUSD pair, a brief jaunt above the 1.32 figure marked a 20-month high before sinking over 85 points in what resembles profit taking. The yen move was less dramatic as an Asian session low around 115.60 led to a rally to 116.50 before another test of the resistance fended off a further run. The USDCHF swung off of a double bottom from the after-hours sessions for a 100-point rally to 1.2110. Finally, the British pound has formed a solid range against the greenback between 1.9545 and 1.9470, an unusually narrow range relative to other pairs suggesting pressure is building.

The window for traders to rally the troops around another wave of strong dollar selling is closing, at least fundamentally. Today’s economic releases were stoking the economic fires with a big revision of third quarter GDP and a disappointing new home sales report that has erased much of the optimism that the housing market may nearly be out of the woods. The first big report this morning was the first revision of economic growth covering the three months through September. Running into the release, there were few expectations on the table as many would rather ignore the modest bump in the lagging indicator. In its initial report, the 1.6 percent annualized pace of expansion was the slowest in three-and-a-half years. However, in contrast to the expected revision to 1.8 percent, the market was surprised to learn that the BEA’s calculations saw a 2.2 percent pace. Now a three-and-a-half year low is merely a three quarter low. On the other hand, some of the nuances of the revision were dubious in their support to a bullish turn for growth. The bulk of the positive shift came from a firming in inventories, which is typically an unfavorable condition for growth in the following periods when businesses halt production in order to work off the stores. What’s worse for the dollar, both income and inflation tempos were unsupportive. This is a heavy cloud hanging over hawks’ heads, especially given the big reduction in wage growth in the second quarter’s GDP record from 7.7 percent to 0.7 percent.

With cautious optimism, traders accepted the growth numbers and shifted their attention to the new homes sales report. In terms of the entire housing market, new homes account for an estimated 15 percent of total sales, a relatively small portion in comparison to yesterday’s existing homes report. Then again, the new report is a leading indicator to yesterday’s report, which helped to leverage the market moving potential of today’s release. According to the Commerce Department, sales of recently completed homes dropped more than expected to 1.004 million units, a 3.2 percent contraction following September’s downwardly revised 3.7 percent growth. This is an ominous sign for November’s existing homes report, which predictable followed the rebound in the September reading of new sales in its report yesterday. Furthermore, the national inventory of new homes on the market for sale grew to a record 166,000, contrasting the improvements in the broader measure that includes starts and permits. The report itself was not without redeeming qualities. The median price for new units grew 13.9 percent to $248,500 over October, contrasting the biggest drop in existing home prices ever for the same month. Now, as the newswires cool, the market will position itself for the Beige Book due out at 19:00 GMT to reveal the same numbers the Fed will look at in its next rate meeting. Tomorrow, the now even bulls and bears will have another chance to tip the scales with personal spending, the Chicago manufacturing report and third quarter housing price index on deck.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Dollar resumes its slide against the euro

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20061130/bs_ft/fto113020060714166477

The dollar resumed its slide against the euro and slumped to a 14-year low against the pound on Thursday amid continuing fears over the state of the US economy.

The dollar received some respite in the previous session from an upward revision to US growth.

On Wednesday, the dollar rallied after official data showed that US gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.2 per cent in third quarter against an estimated 1.6 per cent and consensus forecasts of a 1.8 per cent rise.

However the dollar fell 0.5 per cent to $1.9549 against sterling , dropped 0.4 per cent to $1.3193 against the euro and eased 0.1 per cent to Y116.24 on Thursday.

"The fact that the real GDP data has failed to underpin the dollar serves to underline the fact that dollar sentiment remains dire," said Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. "Market participants are likely to continue pushing it lower through the month of December when the dollar tends to perform poorly against both the euro and the pound."

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Sterling at 14-yr high vs weak dollar, stocks up

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-11-30T112754Z_01_SP320990_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-GLOBAL.xml

LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling punched to a 14-year high against a broadly weaker dollar on Thursday, while expectations that world growth will stay strong despite a slower U.S. economy lifted global stock indexes to fresh record highs.

Euro zone government bonds stalled as markets absorbed a deluge of economic data, and oil traded near its highest level in two months above $62 a barrel after data showed shrinking U.S. fuel inventories.

Sterling rose to $1.9563, its highest against the dollar since September 1992, when the UK was forced to abandon the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, the precursor to the euro.

The euro rose above $1.32, testing a 20-month high against the dollar, which was also down against the yen at 116.26 at 1105 GMT.

The dollar has fallen nearly 3 percent against a basket of major currencies in the past two weeks as softer U.S. data led markets to increase the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates early next year to revive the economy.

"We have had a range break, and investors weren't fully positioned for it," said Michael Metcalfe, senior strategist at State Street.

...more...

[54anickel]

30. Dollar Set for Second Month of Declines on Prospect of Rate Cut

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=abnCY9yMZS_U&refer=us

Nov. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar headed for a second consecutive month of declines on speculation a slowing U.S. economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

The U.S. currency dropped to a 20-month low against the euro and the weakest in three months versus the yen this week as traders bet the central bank will lower borrowing costs. Reports today may show spending grew at a below-average pace in October, and that the Fed's gauge of inflation slowed.

``The Fed said core inflation would ease, and they've been totally vindicated,'' said Gavin Friend, currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in London. ``That's what's giving the market the confidence to price in a rate cut in the second half of next year.''

snip>

Friend said the dollar could fall below $1.36 against the euro, and below $2 versus the pound, by year-end.

The Fed left its benchmark rate at 5.25 percent the past three months, after two years of increases. Interest-rate futures show 62 percent odds of a 5 percent rate at its meeting ending March 21.

U.S. personal spending rose 0.1 percent for a second month in October, according to the median of 69 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. That was below the average 0.5 percent increase in the first nine months. A housing market slump has left Americans feeling less wealthy, damping growth in consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the economy.

more...

[UpInArms]

35. dollar dropping like a rock - under 83 now

Last trade 82.99 Change -0.50 (-0.60%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 83.49

Previous Close 83.49 High 83.53

Low 82.96 2006-11-30 10:26:21, 30 min delay

52wk High 92.32 52wk High Date 2005-12-02

52wk Low 83.05 52wk Low Date 2006-11-29

just a fly-by post - hope to be back later

[Ghost Dog]

39. Dollar falls after November Chicago PMI report

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061130:MTFH67854_2006-11-30_15-10-43_NYA000057&type=comktNews&rpc=44

NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to a fresh 20-month low against the euro after a report showed business activity in the U.S. Midwest contracted in November confounding expectations for continued modest expansion.

...

The euro <EUR=> gained gainst the dollar, trading at $1.3226 soon after the report from about $1.3215 shortly prior. The dollar fell against the yen, trading at about 115.87 yen <JPY=> from about 116.00 yen shortly prior.

The dollar started to sell off before the number was officially released and traders said the data was available early. <-- :think:

[54anickel]

52. Why did they give them a heads up anyway? Wonder what difference,

if any that would make? "Hey, the PMI really sucks and so does the buck, just in case you didn't realize it, thought I'd give you a heads up you you could hit the exit a bit before everyone else." :crazy:

[54anickel]

51. Achieving new lows

Last trade 82.84 Change -0.65 (-0.78%)

Settle Time 15:00 Open 83.49

Previous Close 83.49 High 83.53

Low 82.79 2006-11-30 12:28:19, 30 min delay

52wk High 92.32 52wk High Date 2005-12-02

52wk Low 83.05 52wk Low Date 2006-11-29

[ozymandius]

9. Gotta run folks.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Have fun watching today's shenanigans. I'm off to make a few pennies for the family larder.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

11. bye Ozy!

I'll be running out of here in a few minutes myself. I miss the days when I actually got to read all the news that was not fit to print.

:hi:

and here's a few :donut::donut::donut::donut: to go :)

[UpInArms]

10. India's economy surprises with 9.2% growth

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20061130/bs_ft/fto113020060515006467

India's economic growth unexpectedly accelerated during the last quarter on the back of rapid growth in consumer credit and government spending, raising the likelihood that the central bank will raise borrowing costs for the fourth time in a year.

Asia's second-fastest growing economy expanded 9.2 per cent in the three months to September 30, according to provisional data released Thursday by the Central Statistical Organisation.

It was the sixth quarter out of the past seven that gross domestic product growth has exceeded 8 per cent and was among the strongest increases the country has ever recorded, adding to fears of overheating, particularly in the red-hot property sector.

Fears that India is expanding at a pace well above its non-inflationary speed limit have been growing, with a recent survey of 600 firms finding that 96 per cent were operating close to or above their optimal levels of capacity utilisation. Headline inflation was 5.3 per cent in early November, near the top of the central bank's 5.0-5.5 per cent estimate for the financial year and well above levels seen in the rest of Asia. "We expect inflation to break above the 5.0-5.5 range and believe there is an increased probability of the Reserve Bank of India raising rates before the next quarterly monetary policy meeting in January," said Rajeev Malik of JP Morgan.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

14. Indian economy grews faster than expected, led by manufacturing, services

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061130/afp/061130081719business.html

NEW DELHI (AFP) - India's economy expanded by 9.2 percent in the second quarter to September, beating forecasts as manufacturing and services showed strong growth, official data shows. India's Central Statistical Organisation said services, including real estate and communications, posted the highest second growth of 13.9 percent, followed by manufacturing at 11.9 percent year-on-year. Experts had expected fiscal second-quarter growth figures ranging from 8.0 to 8.7 percent after the economy picked up speed to 8.9 percent in the three months to June.

...

The higher-than-expected growth reported for both quarters this year comes as the country battles rising prices that prompted the government to cut fuel costs Wednesday. India lowered prices for gasoline (petrol) by just over four percent and diesel by slightly above three percent to reflect falling global oil prices in the past six months, the petroleum minister said Wednesday in an effort to reduce inflation in the nation of 1.1 billion people.

Wholesale price inflation, which has stayed above five percent for most of the year, has led to expectations of an interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of India in its next policy review in January. The faster growth and the prospect of higher interest rates had no apparent impact on the Mumbai stock exchange where the benchmark Sensex index was up 92.39 points or 0.68 percent to 13,709.21 in noon trade.

In October, the central bank warned of an overheating economy as it juggled interest rates to keep prices in check. The central bank then raised the cost for banks to borrow by a quarter of a percentage point to 7.25 percent and kept its reverse repurchase rate, the rate paid for deposits from commercial banks, at a four-year high of 6.0 percent. The central bank did refrain from lifting its long-term rate, or bank rate, from 6.0 percent and kept the cash reserve ratio, the percentage of funds banks have to keep as cash, at 5.0 percent.

/...

[AnneD]

28. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. Hubby said that in the two years that had elapsed since we let and he went back, things had so radically changed. We had an interesting talk with some friends as to the social changes that would occur due to this wealth. I am interested in what will pass. I just saw a good friend off. She will stay for a month or so and will be traveling North in addition to the South.

They will have some real problems if they don't start putting money into infrastructure. Power goes off for hours at a time on a daily basis, many places are without indoor plumbing, and forget the sewage system-it is non existent in some places. In all my brief travels through India-infrastructure was abysmal. Some of the best things working had been left by the British so that gives you an idea of what I am talking about. They have lots of manpower but not will power to make the here and now better.

And China, for all its growth may have bad political problems in the future. There seems to be a restlessness among the younger folk that may be hard to contain. All this money will bring about major cultural changes that the government may not be able to handle.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Ghost Dog]

36. India's economy: Too hot to handle

http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8326793

...

China's double-digit growth may look like a danger sign but there are few of the usual troubles. Inflation is only 1.4% and China has a widening current-account surplus, which implies excess supply rather than excess demand. Nor do asset price gains look particularly excessive. Average house prices have risen by less than 6% in the past 12 months. And share prices have gained only 42% in the past four years. Even the expansion of bank credit has slowed to an annual pace of 15%, not much faster than nominal GDP growth.

In contrast, India's economy displays an alarming number of signs that things have gone too far. Consumer-price inflation has risen to almost 7% (see chart), well above Asia's average rate of 2.5%. A recent report by Robert Prior-Wandesforde at HSBC finds many other signs of excess. For example, in a survey of 600 firms by the National Council of Applied Economics Research, an astonishing 96% of firms reported that they were operating close to or above their optimal levels of capacity utilisation—the highest number ever recorded. Firms are also experiencing a serious shortage of skilled labour and wages are rocketing. Companies' total wage costs in the six months to September were 22% higher than a year earlier, compared with an average increase of around 12% in the previous four years.

India's current account has shifted to a forecast deficit of 3% of GDP this year from a surplus of 1.5% in 2003—a classic sign of excess demand. Total bank lending has expanded by 30% over the past year, close to the fastest growth on record.

India's share and housing markets also look bubbly. Draft proposals by the central bank on November 17th to cap banks' exposure to stockmarkets and curb reckless lending only mildly dampened the optimism. Share prices are almost four times their level in early 2003. India's price/earnings ratio of 20 is well above the average of 14 for all Asian emerging markets. House prices have also gone through the roof: Chetan Ahya of Morgan Stanley reckons that prices in big cities have more than doubled in the past two years. Housing loans jumped by 54% in the year to June (the latest figures available) and loans for commercial property were up by 102%.

Indian policymakers seem reluctant to admit that economic growth has exceeded its speed limit over the past three years, let alone slow it. They prefer to bask in the belief that India has become another China, able to keep growing ever faster without inflation rising. Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, has said the Indian economy will continue to grow by more than 8% in the next few years.

India's trend growth rate has almost certainly increased but it is still nowhere near as high as China's. Mr Prior-Wandesforde estimates that it is now around 6.5%, up from 5% in the late 1980s. But India's recent acceleration largely reflects a cyclical boom, thanks to loose monetary and fiscal policy. The Reserve Bank of India has raised one of its key interest rates by one and a half percentage points to 6% over the past two years, but inflation has risen by more, so real interest rates have fallen and are historically low. This makes the economy more vulnerable to a hard landing.

India cannot grow as fast as China without igniting inflation because of its lower investment rate, particularly in infrastructure, and labour bottlenecks. The latest government figures, for the year ending in March 2005, put total investment at 30% of GDP, compared with over 45% officially reported in China.

/...

[AnneD]

42. Thank you

Ghost Dog for the good article. I concur with the article. India cannot succede without infrastructure, which they have not built to the level they need. China seems to understand this need. There are huge public works projects from one end of the country to the other. Another problem not mentioned it graft and corruption. Yes there is some in China but folks still take a dim view. In India it is rampant. You can't get in or out of the country with out getting a shakedown, even at the customs. That sucks millions out of growth there.

[54anickel]

46. Tarapore for increasing gold component in forex reserves

http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=147578

MUMBAI, NOV 28: Underscoring the benefits of diversifying foreign exchange reserves and the uniqueness of gold component as part of the forex basket , SS Tarapore, former deputy governor, Reserve Bank of India and economist, has strongly advocated for increasing the proportion of gold in the country’s forex reserve. He was speaking at a conference on Foreign Exchange Management: The Way Forward, on Tuesday.

In the past, country’s forex reserves have jumped significantly but the gold holding in it has now dwindled to as low as 3.6%. “If the gold proportion of the RBI’s forex reserves were cautiously raised, to say 10% of total reserves, it would require an additional purchase of gold by the RBI of $10 to 11 billion,” he said.

But, while speaking to reporters, he declined to specify a certain percentage. Maintaining that the time was ripe for shedding the ‘phantom fears’ on the gold transactions of the RBI, he said that buying gold ‘should not be a taboo’ and selling RBI gold should not be a ‘talk of shame’.

“Gold is unique, in the sense it is both a commodity and a store of value. More importantly, gold invariably moves inversely with the US dollar and also rises in value when international inflation gathers momentum. Thus, there are strong reasons for holding a reasonable proportion of Indian foreign reserve exchange reserves in gold,” Tarapore added.

He further explained that RBI’s inability to cash in on favourable trends in gold emanated from unfounded fears of the Indian polity. “Before the RBI moves over to an active gold policy the fears of gold in the polity have to be removed,” he said.

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[Ghost Dog]

17. Asia stocks gain on upbeat U.S. growth data

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061130/3/2tosd.html

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Thursday, led by exporters such as Honda and Samsung and resource stocks, after upbeat U.S. growth data eased worries about the health of the economy in Asia's biggest export market.

The dollar slipped a little, trimming gains made after Wednesday's U.S. GDP numbers dampened market expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates early next year.

The data showed the U.S. economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annualized rate during the third quarter, faster than the 1.6 percent pace first estimated and above Wall Street's expectations for a 1.8 percent gain.

Japan's Nikkei rose to its highest close in more than two weeks. South Korean stocks hit a six-month closing high and Taiwan shares notched up their highest close in more than six years, while Singapore's benchmark index was on course for a record close and a regional share index hit a lifetime peak.

"Globally, the recent economic data is coming out positive, so corporate earnings should improve," said Park Suk-hyun, a strategist at Kyobo Securities in South Korea.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

19. Tokyo stocks up on ebbing concerns over Japan, U.S. economic slowdown

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061130/kyodo/d8ln88do0.html

(Kyodo) Japan's key Nikkei stock average ended higher Thursday, hitting a two-week high, with investors heartened by upbeat U.S. growth data overnight and continuing to digest surprisingly strong Japanese industrial production data.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average gained 198.13 points, or 1.23 percent, to 16,274.33, its highest finish since Nov. 14.

The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was up 22.93 points, or 1.45 percent, to 1,603.03. The index ended above the key 1,600 line for the first time since Nov. 7.

Buying was stirred in a wide range of issues after the release of bullish data concerning the world's two largest economies.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

20. Japan rates should rise if economy in line-BOJ Noda

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061130:MTFH55614_2006-11-30_07-10-44_T200732&type=comktNews&rpc=44

OKAYAMA, Japan, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Policy Board member Tadao Noda said on Thursday the central bank will slowly raise interest rates, as not doing so when the economy is expanding in line with its forecast could cause harm.

The central bank can raise rates even if core consumer price rises stay at current low levels near zero, and it does not have to wait until every risk to the economy has completely abated, he added.

"When the economy and prices are moving in line with our forecast, if we do not adjust interest rates in accordance with such conditions, then much larger adjustments will be required down the line," Noda said in a speech to business leaders in the western Japan city of Okayama. "This will lead to fluctuations in economic activity and increase the possibility of impeding the long-lasting growth of our economy."

In his first public speech since joining the BOJ board in June, Noda echoed comments by other board members that Japan's economy is moving in line with the forecast outlined in the central bank's half-yearly outlook report issued in late October.

...

Noda also said the BOJ could raise interest rates even if the core consumer price index (CPI) stays at current low levels near zero, as prices are in a moderate uptrend on the whole. "We are not judging based on prices alone. If consumer prices stay at current levels that does not affect our policy judgment," Noda told a news conference.

Japanese government bond prices gave up some earlier gains after his comments.

Noda also said he has no preset idea on when the central bank should raise interest rates, repeating the line used by other BOJ officials including central bank governor Toshihiko Fukui.

Many in financial markets are expecting the BOJ to raise rates to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent by January.

"He said it is appropriate to raise rates to achieve long-lasting growth," Takeo Okuhara, a senior strategist at Daiwa Institute of Research. "I'm left with the impression that the possibility of a hike in December has grown."

/...

[Ghost Dog]

21. JGBs jump on month-end buying, short-covering

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061130:MTFH55266_2006-11-30_06-53-27_T310071&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond futures climbed back towards a two-month high on Thursday, boosted by month-end buying by portfolio managers and market players covering short positions before inflation data next session.

The 30-year bond yield hit an eight-month low on the month-end buying to match changes in benchmark indexes, along with expectations for a large amount of maturing government debt in December to be reinvested in longer-dated paper.

Other technical factors were at play, including the expiry of options on JGB futures that helped the December contract gravitate above the 135.00 strike level, traders said.

Market players were also covering short positions before Friday's consumer price index figures for October, the next key piece of data that will help determine whether the Bank of Japan could raise rates in December or wait until early 2007.

December futures gained 0.34 point to 135.09 <2JGBv1>, near the two-month peak of 135.20 struck earlier in the week. The gains in JGBs came despite the Nikkei share average <.N225> climbing 1.23 percent to hit a two-week closing high.

/...

[UpInArms]

15. Smithfield Foods earnings fall, miss estimates

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-11-30T125537Z_01_N30277440_RTRIDST_0_SMITHFIELD-RESULTS-UPDATE-2.XML

CHICAGO, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Top U.S. hog and pork producer Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD.N: Quote, Profile, Research) reported lower-than-expected quarterly earnings on Thursday due to a weak market for fresh meat and higher hog production costs.

The Smithfield, Virginia-based company, which has been rapidly buying other meat companies, said profit fell to $44.7 million, or 40 cents per share, in the second quarter that ended Oct. 29, from $51.6 million, or 46 cents per share, a year ago.

<snip>

"Fresh pork and packaged meats margins remained weak even as we entered the fall period, traditionally the best time of the year," Chief Executive Larry Pope said in a statement. "In addition, difficulties in the beef industry persist."

Meat companies have been hurt by an excess of meat and low meat prices due in part to increased production and lingering export disruptions from mad cow disease two years ago and bird flu overseas earlier this year.

Two weeks ago, Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the nation's largest meat company, said an excess of meat was partly to blame for its fiscal fourth-quarter loss.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Private equity ownership raises default risk -Moody's

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-11-30T124704Z_01_L29354332_RTRIDST_0_PRIVATE-EQUITY-INVESTMENTS-DEBT.XML

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Companies with a speculative-grade credit rating that are bought by private equity firms have more risk of default as the new owners add more debt after the purchase, said a research report published on Thursday.

"Among speculative grade issuers we find that issuers acquired by private equity sponsors do indeed typically experience much higher downgrade rates and default rates than other non-sponsored issuers," US credit rating agency Moody's said in the report.

The study referred to North American speculative-grade, non-financial issuers.

The risk of default increased in companies with a B rating, the agency said. However, the risk falls in the more risky C-rated companies as private equity firms come to their rescue, Moody's said. Private equity investments in the lowest-rated firms suggest "a potential white-knight role for private equity sponsors," Moody's said.

...more...

[54anickel]

48. Turnaround specialist predicts rise in defaults

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wrap30.1nov30,1,1401439.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Billionaire corporate turnaround specialist Wilbur L. Ross predicted Wednesday that bankruptcy filings in the U.S. and Europe would jump sharply next year because of soaring company debt levels.

Ross, best known over the last two decades for bringing distressed businesses back to health, told a London conference that he expected about 7% of junk bond issues to be in default by the end of next year, up from about 1% now.

"The number of defaults will rise even in the absence of an economic downturn or interest rate increases," the chairman of New York-based WL Ross & Co. said. "There will be some tragedies."

That may be a good thing for his firm, which raised $685 million this month from a partnership formed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The money would help him fund acquisitions of companies in bankruptcy proceedings.

snip>

Leveraged companies historically have been more likely to default in the third or fourth year after a buyout than earlier on. The current buyout wave began in 2003, which suggests that defaults should rise in 2007, Ross said.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

22. Germany's unemployment rate continues to fall in Nov.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2006-11/30/content_5414747.htm

BERLIN, Nov. 30 (Xinhua) -- Germany's unemployment rate fell to 9.6 percent in November from the 9.8 percent a month earlier, the lowest record in four years, the Federal Labor Office announced on Thursday.

The number of jobless people fell below four million for the first time in four years, the Nuremberg-based office said.

After seasonal adjustment, the unemployment rate stands at 10.2percent, compared to 10.4 percent in October.

The office reported that the number of employed was up by 350,000 or 0.9 percent in October 2006 over the same period last year.

The number of unemployed was down by 450,000 or 12.7 percent from a year earlier. This means that employment rates were at their highest levels, while unemployment rates were at their lowest in October, since 2001.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

23. UK retail sales drop to lowest level since March: CBI

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=2689708

Nov 30, 2006 — LONDON (Reuters) - British retail sales volumes fell for a second month running in November and to the weakest level since March, a survey showed on Thursday. The Confederation of British Industry's distributive trades survey's reported sales balance fell to -9 in November from -4 in October. Analysts had forecast a pick-up to +5.

"The survey shows a negative balance for retail sales growth … which is clearly disappointing," said John Longworth, executive director of Asda and chairman of the survey panel. "But retailers are still looking forward to healthy sales growth during the busy Christmas period," he said.

The quarterly business situation balance fell to -1 from +10 in August, while the quarterly reported selling prices edged up to +13, the highest reading in more than two years. The CBI survey was conducted between October 31 and November 15.

Sterling was little moved versus the dollar <GBP=>, having ticked down from 14-year peaks prior to data release.

A breakdown by sector showed durable household goods sales bucked the trend and grew strongly last month, probably reflecting buoyancy in the housing market. Sales of clothing and footwear fell sharply, however, as unusually mild weather hit winter lines.

A separate survey on Thursday showed British consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in November after the Bank of England raised interest rates to 5 percent.

Research company GFK NOP's monthly consumer confidence index fell to -7 from -5 in October, as the rate rise soured the public's mood about their personal finances and the wider economy.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

24. German retail sales disappoint again

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/1130/germany.html

Retail sales in Germany declined in October, once again confounding analysts' expectations of an increase on the assumption that consumers would make big-ticket purchases ahead of a rise in value-added tax (VAT) next year, new data shows today.

German retail sales declined by 0.2% month-on-month in October, in seasonally, price and calendar-adjusted terms, the federal statistics office Destatis said.

In September, retail sales had already fallen sharply, declining by 2.9% month-on-month. On a 12-month basis, German retailers reported a decline in business of 0.8% in October on an unchanged number of shopping days, Destatis said.

The data appear to contradict the monthly consumer confidence survey calculated by the GfK market research institute.

Earlier this week, the GfK survey showed that consumer sentiment in Germany, the biggest economy in the euro zone, was now at a five-year high, with households apparently more willing than ever before to go out and spend money.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

25. Euro zone economy aglow as German jobless drops

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061130:MTFH62894_2006-11-30_12-33-41_L30674899&type=comktNews&rpc=44

BERLIN/BRUSSELS, Nov 30 (Reuters) - A sharp drop in German unemployment capped a day of mostly positive news for the euro zone economy on Thursday, with forecasts of steady growth early next year setting the stage for a December interest rate rise.

With Germany's unadjusted jobless rate falling below 4 million for the first time in four years and euro zone inflation heading up again in November, economists saw nothing to prevent the European Central Bank from raising rates again next week.

The EU statistics office reported that third-quarter economic growth was 0.5 percent in the 12-nation zone. This was slower than in the first half of 2006 and slightly lower than U.S. growth, but remained solid.

The European Commission added a positive spin for early 2007 by raising its growth forecast for the first three months to a range of 0.3-0.8 percent from 0.0-0.5 percent. It predicted second quarter growth of 0.3 to 0.9 percent.

The slew of data confirmed that domestic demand and company investment were playing a larger role in boosting European gross domestic product, alongside exports, and separate sentiment surveys showed morale remained healthy.

"Given the positive growth figures and higher inflation, the ECB has all the arguments it needs to justify the 25 bp (basis point) rate hike expected next week," said Erik Sonntag, an economist at ING bank.

Economists in a Reuters poll predicted unanimously that the ECB will raise rates to 3.5 percent from 3.25 next Thursday, continuing an anti-inflation campaign which began in December 2005 when its key rate stood at a historic low of 2.0 percent.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

26. Europe ticks higher as oil stocks rally

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=39051.3657638889-885244112&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

European equities were higher on Thursday as gains in the energy sector offset losses for financial services stocks. Takeover speculation continued to buoy French power-station builder Alstom after Bouygues, the construction and telecoms group, said on Wednesday it may raise its stake, which currently stands at more than 24 per cent. Bid rumour also drove shares of Saint-Gobain, the French building materials supplier. Its shares added 3.4 per cent to €61.30 on speculation that Lafarge, the world’s biggest cement maker, was eyeing a possible offer. Lafarge gained 0.2 per cent to €109.80. By mid-session, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was up 0.1 per cent to 1,444.38, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax gained 0.4 per cent to 6,386.31, the CAC 40 in Paris added 0.1 per cent to 5,385.94 and London’s FTSE 100 was 0.2 per cent higher at 6,097.3.

/.

[Ghost Dog]

27. FTSE 100 rises with commodities, capped by pound

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=londonMktRpt&storyID=2006-11-30T121006Z_01_L30693160_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BRITAIN-STOCKS-UPDATE-1.XML

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE index rose at midday on Thursday, boosted by robust commodity stocks, but traders said gains were capped after sterling rose to a 14-year high against the dollar.

Sterling rose to $1.9565 <GBP=D4>, fuelled by Bank of England rate hikes, inflows from mergers and acquisitions as well as central bank reserve purchases. The currency's rise hurts UK companies that report in U.S. dollars, as well as the many FTSE companies which rely on U.S. sales.

"I don't think it's a particularly good thing ... it's more an issue for companies that report in dollars, which is probably more than 50 percent these day. Does it have an effect? Yes. At the moment is it a nightmare? No," a trader said.

...

At 1151 GMT, the FTSE 100 index was up 9.5 points, or 0.16 percent, at 6,093.9.

Miners led the index after copper and nickel futures edged higher, with Lonmin (LMI.L: Quote, Profile, Research), Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) all adding between three and four percent. BHP Billiton (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rose about two percent.

"I think the oil price recovery and the data are interlinked," said Robert Parkes, UK equity strategist at HSBC. "If the U.S. economy isn't falling off a cliff, which the data suggests, then you would expect commodity prices to rebound on the back of that, and obviously that's helped in the markets as well."

/...

[Ghost Dog]

58. European shares stagger as economic, FX fears bite

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2006-11-30T175859Z_01_L30851397_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-3.XML

PARIS, Nov 30 (Reuters) - European shares closed lower on Thursday as foreign exchange worries and weak U.S. economic data made investors pessimistic about corporate profits, with shares in car and drug makers hit the hardest.

...

The FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> shed 0.8 percent to close at 1,432.43 points in volatile trade, looking set to end the week lower for the third time in a row and retreating further from a recent 5-1/2 year peak of 1,476.47.

Markets took a turn for the worse shortly after an economic report showed an unexpected contraction in business activity in the U.S. Midwest in November, the first one in over 3-1/2 years as new orders and hiring slowed. This and a higher-than-expected rise in new jobless claims stirred up worries about the scope of a U.S. economic slowdown.

A third set of data showing tame U.S. core consumer prices comforted investors in the belief that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates on hold or cut them in the coming months. This, in turn, pushed the dollar down further as the prospect of a narrowing differential between U.S. and European borrowing costs made the dollar less attractive.

"The double whammy for stocks is that not only will this data reignite fears of an impending recession, it will also add further momentum to the sell-off in the dollar, thus turning the screw on exporters to the U.S.," said Martin Slaney, head of spread betting at GFT Global Markets in London.

Around Europe, London's FTSE 100 .FTSE index shed 0.6 percent, Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> fell 0.9 percent and Paris's CAC 40 <.FCHI> and Zurich's SMI <.SSMI> both shed 1 percent.

Car makers <.SXAP> and pharmaceuticals <.SXDP>, sectors Standard & Poor's equity strategists said are most exposed to a weak dollar due to large overseas exposure, topped decliners.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

59. FTSE turns lower after as U.S. dollar extends losses

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=londonMktRpt&storyID=2006-11-30T170248Z_01_L30775891_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BRITAIN-STOCKS-UPDATE-2.XML

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE index turned sharply lower on Thursday as 72 of its members finished lower on fears for earnings after sterling soared to 14-year highs against the U.S. dollar.

Traders said, however, the FTSE was seeing some support from strength in mining stocks.

...

Sterling strength comes from Bank of England rate hikes against U.S. rate uncertainty, inflows from acquisitions and central bank reserve purchases. But analysts say the currency's rise is hurting UK companies that report in U.S. dollars, as well as the many FTSE companies which rely on U.S. sales.

"A substantial number of FTSE 100 companies are suffering from this," said Jeremy Batstone, head of research at Charles Stanley. "Earnings are suffering in translation unless companies have their hedging just right, which has been difficult."

"Any positive news out of the U.S. has tended to be backward looking data. Realistically we can expect more signs of a slowing economy from the U.S. into 2007 and therefore more of the same in terms of the impact on the dollar and UK shares."

The FTSE 100 index of Britain's leading shares ended down 35.6 points, or 0.6 percent, at 6,048.8, after starting the day in positive territory.

/...

[54anickel]

31. UPDATE 1-S&P warns of global infrastructure bubble

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-11-30T113556Z_01_L30722900_RTRIDST_0_INFRASTRUCTURE-RATINGS-S-P-UPDATE-1.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The boom in infrastructure deals worldwide is creating a dotcom-style bubble, raising the spectre of overvaluation and excessive leverage, rating agency Standard & Poor's warned in a report released on Thursday.

Transactions this year in the sector, which includes transport and utilities, have so far reached $145 billion -- a 180 percent jump from 2000, it said. In addition, up to $150 billion of funds are waiting to be placed.

"It is clear that, as a result of rampant demand, the infrastructure sector is in danger of suffering from the dual curse of overvaluation and excessive leverage -- the classic symptoms of an asset bubble similar to the dotcom era," Michael Wilkins, managing director of S&P's European infrastructure finance group, said in the report.

Wilkins blamed cheap financing and private-equity interest as well as a relatively slim range of potential targets for the rise in asset prices and leverage.

S&P also noted that the arrival of private-equity funds, which accounted for 50 percent of the deals done in 2006, had raised a number of concerns.

more...

[54anickel]

32. 10:11 numbers and outta step yada

Dow 12,202.06 24.67 (0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,426.45 5.78 (0.24%)
S&P 500 1,397.34 2.14 (0.15%)
10-yr Bond 4.4950% 0.0260
30-yr Bond 4.5960% 0.0160
NYSE Volume 451,683,000
Nasdaq Volume 306,504,000

10:00 am : The indices are still fluctuating just above the unchanged mark as mixed sector leadership continues to dictate early action. Of the six sectors trading higher, Health Care is providing the bulk of early support after its most influential constituent and Dow component Pfizer (PFE 27.68 +0.61) raised its fiscal 2006 EPS outlook. Unfortunately for the bulls, the only other sectors posting modest gains are also among the least influential areas on the S&P 500 (e.g. Telecom, Materials) while leading sectors like Financials, Staples and Discretionary can't seem to shake off early profit-taking efforts. DJ30 +6.80 NASDAQ +1.11 SP500 +0.91 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1268/1140/122 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 965/1355/52 mln

09:40 am : Stocks open with little fanfare as mixed same-store sales figures, another rise in oil prices and disappointing news on the economic front stall what was shaping up to be a stronger open. With the market focused on how well the holiday shopping period is developing, the majority of retailers missing analysts' forecasts has underpinned some nervousness about the health of the consumer. Also, with the Fed recently saying that some inflation risks remain, leaving their focus on "incoming" data to dictate monetary policy decisions, the core PCE deflator for October checking in up a slightly larger than expected 0.2% keeps the year-over-year increase at an "uncomfortably high" rate of 2.4%.DJ30 +3.01 NASDAQ +1.20 SP500 +1.04 NASDAQ Vol 88 mln NYSE Vol 48 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.5. Uncertainty about holiday spending, amid largely disappointing monthly retail sales figures, as well as further analysis of this morning's inflation data and oil prices briefly eclipsing $63/bbl, continue to weigh on early action as futures indications now point to a mixed start for the cash market. Not surprisingly, since nearly 8% of its year-to-date gain of 10% has been realized in just two months, the Nasdaq now looks as though investors will get back into consolidation mode.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.2. Futures are still in positive territory but early sentiment continues to deteriorate heading into the opening bell as the bulk of November same-store sales figures continue to disappoint. Aside from Wal-Mart (WMT) confirming a 0.1% decrease in Nov. comps, the first decline in years, and saying Dec. comps will be flat to up 1.0%, other big retailers like Costco (COST), Dillard's (DDS), Kohl's (KSS), JC Penney (JCP), Gap (GPS) and Nordstrom (JWN) have missed analysts' expectations altogether.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.2. October personal income rose 0.4% (consensus 0.5%) while personal spending rose 0.2% (consensus 0.1%). The more closely watched core-PCE deflator, meanwhile, was up 0.2%, above the consensus of 0.1% and keeping the year-over-year rate at 2.4%. Initial claims unexpectedly rose 34K to 357K (consensus 316K). Futures indications have pulled back slightly following the report but still trade above fair value, suggesting a positive open for equities. Bonds, though, have held relatively steady as the yield on the 10-yr note (+04/32) remains at 4.50%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.0. Early indications are pointing to a slightly higher open for stocks, courtesy of yesterday's buying momentum carrying over into this morning's pre-market action, as investors sift through same-store sales figures from a plethora of retailers. However, with the market awaiting the 8:30 ET release of the personal income and spending report (8:30 ET), which contains the Fed's favored inflation gauge -- the core-PCE deflator, there is little reason to get overly excited about an early positive bias. After all, such influential "incoming" data will be closely watched given its ability to influence the market's mentality on consumer spending activity and the Fed's thinking on monetary policy.

[54anickel]

37. Greenberg denies push to buy Times Co. stock - Shares rose 7.5% on initial report

http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2006/11/30/greenberg_denies_push_to_buy_times_co_stock/

The New York Times Co. stock jumped 7.5 percent yesterday, its biggest gain in almost six years, on reports that billionaire Maurice "Hank" Greenberg , former chairman of insurance giant American International Group, was snapping up shares of Times Co. in a bid to challenge its two-tier ownership structure.

Shares of the newspaper company, parent of The Boston Globe, rose $1.73 to $24.76 in New York Stock Exchange trading. The gain came after the New York Post, citing unidentified sources, said the 81-year-old Greenberg has bought hundreds of thousands of Times Co. shares.

After the market closed, however, a spokesman for Greenberg said he owns less than 100,000 of the approximately 143 million Times Co. shares outstanding and "has no present intention of significantly increasing his holding." The spokesman, Mark Corallo , wouldn't comment on the Post's report that Greenberg wants to loosen the founding Ochs-Sulzberger family's control over the newspaper company or a CNBC television report that he wants to buy the company.

A Times Co. spokeswoman, Catherine J. Mathis, yesterday said the company is not aware of any stock purchases by Greenberg, who earlier had been reported to be weighing a bid for Tribune Co., owner of the Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, and other newspapers.

Mathis issued what she said is the most definitive statement to date that the family remains committed to the company's two classes of stock. "The Ochs-Sulzberger family has no intention of changing the dual-class structure of The New York Times Co.," she said.

more...



Morgan Stanley refuses to bankroll billionaire's purchase of NY Times
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1960433,00.html

The insurance billionaire Hank Greenberg has emerged as a possible buyer for the New York Times which is facing pressure on Wall Street because of its declining circulation and weak advertising income.

It emerged yesterday that Mr Greenberg, 81, a former boss of the insurer AIG, recently approached the head of the investment bank Morgan Stanley for help in pursuing a takeover.

But in an unusual development, Morgan Stanley's chief executive, John Mack, rebuffed the approach citing conflicts of interest - including the publication of a series of negative personal stories about him in the broadsheet.

snip>

Morgan Stanley owns 7.6% of the NY Times Co and recently demanded changes to the firm's structure to give all shareholders equal voting rights.

But the bank's boss has insisted he wants nothing to do with a bid for the paper. Mr Mack is known to be angry about the NY Times's coverage of Pequot Capital - a hedge fund he used to chair.

In June, the paper disclosed that the Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating insider trading allegations at Pequot. It quoted a former SEC lawyer who claimed he had been prevented from interviewing Mr Mack because of his powerful political connections.

Whatever happened with that anyway? :shrug: Sort of got swept under the rug.

more...

[54anickel]

40. Panel to Urge Rewriting Rules to Aid Companies

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/30/business/30regs.html?_r=2&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=business&adxnnlx=1164901341-6BvozYN9Y3a01YwzYgxRag

Saying it is concerned about a loss of American competitiveness, an independent committee will call today for a sweeping overhaul of securities market regulations.

It recommends making it harder for companies to be indicted by the government or sued by private lawyers, and urges policies to keep the Securities and Exchange Commission from adopting rules that impose high costs on business.

The committee, formed with the endorsement of Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., said the S.E.C. should be required to perform cost-benefit analyses on all rules before they were adopted. It said the S.E.C. should also take steps to rein in private securities litigation and adopt policies to shield corporate directors and auditors from some lawsuits.

With Congress soon to be under control of the Democrats, the report recommends changes that can be made without legislation. Even so, it remains unclear how much of the report will be adopted by the Treasury or the S.E.C. While the committee said its recommendations would help investors, they drew immediate criticism from one former member of the S.E.C., who said the recommendations would damage the commission and roll back needed regulation.

The report said President Bush should direct the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets — composed of Mr. Paulson and the chairmen of the Federal Reserve, the S.E.C. and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission — “to examine the legal and regulatory concerns we raise and to propose whatever reforms it views necessary.”

snip>

In general, it said, the government should be hesitant to ever indict companies, given possible damage to innocent shareholders and to the economy, and it said the law should be changed to give Washington the power to block state indictments of accounting or financial firms.

more...

[Robbien]

41. This is so sad

POTUS passes a law giving himself a pardon. Now the rich elite want the same protection for past and all future corruption.

It is sad that the rich elite is taken seriously when they say they need this law and it is sadder that congress will probably give it to them.

[54anickel]

43. Fascism - Looks like we made it

"...the Justice Department should be able to block the prosecution “on the grounds of national interest.”

Got freakin' Barry Manilow stuck in my head now...make it stop!!!

Looks like we made it
Left our ethics on the way,
To be screwn again
Looks like we made it
It sure looks like it today
Mussolini would be proud,
The way they're screwin' with the crowd
The way they made it

[54anickel]

44. Medicare? The doctor may be out

Physicians leaving program over fee cuts

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/113006dnbusmedicare.2ef80c3.html#

When Dick Grote went for his annual physical this fall, he was told he'd need to find another doctor.

He was about to turn 65, and his physician didn't treat Medicare patients.

"I was flabbergasted," the Dallas business consultant said. "I felt like I had been fired as a patient."

More seniors are likely to get the same pink slip, experts say, if Medicare cuts its payments to physicians another 5 percent on Jan. 1 as planned.

Doctors complain that Medicare isn't reimbursing them enough to cover costs. As the payments have fallen further behind inflation, some physicians have stopped seeing new Medicare patients, and a few, like Mr. Grote's, have even withdrawn from the program altogether.

Until now, Medicare beneficiaries who have had trouble finding a doctor have been in the minority. But experts say those seniors could easily become the majority if the 2007 fee cut and eight more years of projected cuts go into effect.

more...

[54anickel]

45. MBIA Debt Backed by Crack Houses Perpetuates Pittsburgh Blight

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aIr.34tYn5Bw&refer=home

Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- No one has lived at 217 Dinwiddie Street, the gray, three-story, Victorian row house in Pittsburgh, since the owner died in 1995.

``I just keep the shades shut and don't look at it,'' said Imogene Boyd, referring to the front porch that draws a regular crowd of crack addicts who sneak through the weed-covered chain link fence for a smoke. The 90-year-old retired cleaning lady, who has lived on Dinwiddie since Dwight Eisenhower was president, has seen the city lose half its population.

The dilapidated home in the Hill District is among 11,000 derelict properties that Pittsburgh officials say can't be rescued because their tax liens are controlled by MBIA Inc., the Armonk, New York-based bond insurer. MBIA, whose 44 percent annual profit margin makes it beloved on Wall Street, controls 8 percent of the land in the city and uses the liens as collateral for almost $200 million of bonds, according to company data and the Pittsburgh Neighborhood and Community Information System, a project partially supported by Carnegie Mellon University and the Heinz Endowment.

``There are thousands and thousands of liens in excess of market values'' in Pittsburgh, said Kendall Pelling, planning and acquisition coordinator for East Liberty Development, a non- profit group that builds affordable housing in the city. MBIA needs ``to look at the portfolio very hard and make some decisions,'' he said.

MBIA's bonds are connected to Pittsburgh's blight because the company controls 75 percent of all real estate with tax liens in the city. Nothing can be done to improve the properties until the bills are paid or MBIA writes them off. The company still expects to collect $40 million on the liens by the time the bonds mature in 2008.

more...

[54anickel]

47. The value of non-inversion

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0c294ee4-7f4f-11db-b193-0000779e2340.html

Something highly unusual is afoot in the US interest-rate swap market - and threatens the bottom line for investors holding a particular type of structured note.

For only the second time in recent history, the rate available on longer-dated10-year interest rate swaps has fallen below that on two-year swaps - meaning the yield curve for swaps has followed that for US Treasuries in becoming inverted.

This unexpected situation has put the spotlight on a structured product that allows investors to bet the swaps curve will retain its normal positive slope where longer-dated rates are higher than shorter-dated rates.

Dealers say investors in Asia and other high net worth private banking clients have been buying up these so-called non-inversion notes in the hunt for higher yields than are available on other fixed income investments.

"These notes are popular with retail investors seeking a high quality return that is better than owning standard bonds," says Steve Rodosky, portfolio manager at Pimco. "The investor sees a nice coupon and is aware of the historical tendency for the swaps curve to not invert."

For every day the curve is not inverted, these notes paid investors a fixed premium of anywhere from1 per cent to 2 per cent more than the three-month London Interbank Offered Rate, the swap market's benchmark floating interest rate. While the curve is inverted, investors get nothing.

more...

[54anickel]

49. Dr. James K. Galbraith Interview

This is a tough one to cut and paste from. Interesting read though. I noticed his new book is going for big bucks at Amazon - too rich for my blood. I'll have to wait for the library to get a copy. Unbearable Cost: Bush, Greenspan and the Economics of Empire $93.95

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=654

big snip>

JG: Foreign central banks generally, and China's and Japan's particularly, have changed the arithmetic of global interest rates and inflation. They do not follow a conscious policy of supporting the dollar and U.S. interest rates in order to maintain exports to the United States. Their economies have a limited import absorption capacity. The $1 trillion in dollar reserves held by China represents a $1 trillion capital inflow for investments into the economy from outside, especially in real estate. The reserve results from the government sterilizing the money by issuing local currency. It may not be sustainable, but neither is this situation necessarily highly unstable.

EJ: Let's look at the potential downside of that equation. In "Conquest of Inflation, the World's Second Oldest Profession", I make the point that the trade deficits have shifted inflation risk from the Fed to export countries that are buying U.S. debt to support U.S. consumption. The Fed doesn't control U.S. interest rates and inflation as much as U.S. creditors do. In a story entitled “Rubin, Volcker Say Investors May Avoid Buying Dollars, Bloomberg recently reported this: "Robert E. Rubin, Treasury secretary under President Bill Clinton, and former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said foreign investors probably won't keep increasing dollar holdings, raising the risk of a slump in the currency." Do you not share their concern about the trade deficit and the dollar?

JG: The world will not go on forever using dollars exclusively as reserves. The cost of production of reserve assets is zero versus the cost of producing things; the advantage is not permanently sustainable. Global monetary systems tend to last 30 years or so, and the current dollar-based arrangement that arose in the early 1980s out of the inflation crisis is getting a bit long in the tooth.

EJ: Let's leave the realm of informed speculation to advance into idle speculation. What events do you think are likely to precipitate the end of the dollar's reign as the world's reserve currency? What might a post-dollar world look like?

JG: You might like to design the new system first and then figure out how to get to the new system from here with the least possible transition cost. We won't be so lucky. Throughout history, these kinds of transitions have been precipitated by crisis, precisely because the transition cost is too high for most of the players in the system.

EJ: In the current instance, the United States.

JG: Right. That said, it's hard to imagine how any of the players will do anything intentionally to create the crisis that will lead to a transition. Think of a crowded theater where someone yells “Fire!” In the case of the global monetary system, the theater isn't very crowded. There are three seats in the front row occupied by sleepy, porcine men, representing Europe, Japan and China. If someone in the back yelled “Fire!” the porcine men might wake from their slumber, sniff the air and—noting a lack of smoke—go back to sleep.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

63. Haha. Thanks.

...

EJ: Let's explore that for a moment. Do you think the U.S. banking system is at risk from the collapse of the housing bubble?

JG: You'd have to ask a banking expert, but my understanding is that the banks are confident that securitization and risk management have allowed them to make high risk loans safely, that banks will remain solvent even under the kinds of credit market conditions that may occur if the housing market declines significantly and rapidly. That said, as Keynes once pointed out, a banker's job is not to avoid risk, but to make sure that if he's making a mistake he's making the same mistake as everyone else, so that he's positioned to go down with everyone else and not stand out.

EJ: Reminds me of the Chinese saying, "No snowflake in an avalanche feels responsible.” The corollary is “No snowflake in an avalanche can be held responsible.”

JG: That's a nice way to describe the principle.

...

[54anickel]

50. 12:26 check in

Dow 12,180.03 46.70 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,428.52 3.71 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,397.16 2.32 (0.17%)
10-yr Bond 4.4700% 0.0510
30-yr Bond 4.5760% 0.0360
NYSE Volume 1,382,367,000
Nasdaq Volume 889,237,000

12:00 pm : After a respectable two-day recovery effort following Monday's widespread sell-off, some disappointing news on the economic front, mixed monthly retail sales and higher oil prices have left investors questioning the sustainability of the recent bounce.

With the market still preoccupied with the pace of economic growth, a disappointing read on regional manufacturing conditions has been the biggest obstacle for the bulls to overcome. The Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October since April 2003 and below the 50 level, indicating contraction in the region. Since the Chicago PMI has the highest correlation with the most influential of all manufacturing surveys -- tomorrow's national ISM Index, the lowest PMI reading in more than three years has renewed concerns that manufacturing may be entering a downturn. That, in turn, is weighing on areas like Industrials.

Meanwhile, Treasuries have rallied on the report as it provided more evidence of an economic slowdown. However, even though the yield on the 10-yr note has fallen to 10-month lows (4.46%), the inability of the rate-sensitive Financials sector to take advantage is also acting as an overhang.

Of the four other sectors losing ground, the absence of leadership from the Consumer Discretionary sector is also worth noting. With investors focused on how well the holiday shopping period is developing, the majority of retailers missing analysts' forecasts this morning has underpinned some nervousness about the health of the consumer. Among the biggest names tumbling after coming up short of Wall Street's forecasts are Kohl's (KSS 68.61 -2.07), JC Penney (JCP 76.91 -2.69), Gap (GPS 18.67 -0.40) and Nordstrom (JWN 48.69 -1.72).

Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 46.17 -0.72), which is actually a constituent of the Staples sector, is also consolidating after it confirmed a 0.1% decrease in Nov. comps, the first decline in a decade, and said Dec. comps will be flat to up 1.0%.

Another rise in oil prices, without much in the way of follow-through leadership from the Energy sector, is also dampening sentiment. Crude for January delivery is up 0.8% at two-month highs near $63/bbl amid forecasts of cold weather conditions. BTK -0.3% DJ30 -60.80 DJTA -0.6% DJUA -0.2% NASDAQ -7.59 NQ100 -0.3% R2K -0.2% SOX +0.4% SP400 -0.1% SP500 -4.61 XOI -0.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1590/1248/750 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1566/1501/626 mln

11:30 am : Sellers remain in control of the action as not even another rise in oil prices is enough to keep buyers interested in owning oil stocks. Albeit up 0.8% at two-month highs near $63/bbl, the Energy sector is in the red and failing to offer the influential leadership largely responsible for the market's recovery efforts over the last two sessions. EOG Resources (EOG 69.97 -2.09), which was downgraded at UBS, is the sector's worst performing component (-2.9%). DJ30 -59.36 NASDAQ -7.84 SP500 -4.36 XOI -0.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1508/1268/628 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1481/1541/504 mln

11:00 am : Stocks are bouncing off their worst levels of the day but continue to languish in negative territory. Despite bond yields falling to 10-month lows following the disappointing Chicago PMI number, the absence of leadership from the rate-sensitive Financials sector continues to act as an overhang. Other influential sectors succumbing to early profit-taking efforts include Industrials, Technology, Staples and Discretionary. The latter sector has found some support from Homebuilding, which is benefiting from a decline in borrowing costs and an analyst upgrade to pace the way among today's best performing S&P industry groups (+3.4%). However, selling across the retail complex is acting as an offset. DJ30 -32.28 NASDAQ -4.02 SP500 -1..74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1595/1139/508 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1566/1385/390 mln

10:30 am : With investors still preoccupied with the pace of economic growth, a disappointing read on regional manufacturing conditions within the last 30 minutes has pushed the major averages to morning lows. At 10:00 ET, the Chicago PMI falling to its lowest level (49.9%) in October since April 2003, and below the 50 level to indicate contraction in the region, has taken the wind out of the stock market's sails. Treasuries, however, are embracing the data since more evidence of an economic slowdown, coupled with the report's closely-watched prices paid component falling to 60.2% from 62.5% easing inflation concerns, play into the belief among bond traders that a potential Fed rate cut next year is still in the cards. The 10-yr note is now up 10 ticks to yield 4.48%. DJ30 -45.10 NASDAQ -11.49 SP500 -4.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1504/1124/342 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1512/1346/232 mln

[54anickel]

53. 2:37 and miracle of miracles - again.

Dow 12,244.12 17.39 (0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,439.02 6.79 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,404.24 4.76 (0.34%)
10-yr Bond 4.4620% 0.0590
30-yr Bond 4.5690% 0.0430
NYSE Volume 2,138,104,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,387,655,000

2:00 pm : Equities remain mixed, as the Dow's recent stint into positive territory is short-lived, but continue to trade near their best levels of the afternoon amid spirited leadership from a number of blue chips. Faring even better, though, are small caps, as the Russell 2000 is up 0.4% on the day while the three majors continue to vacillate around the unchanged mark. The Russell 2000 hit a historic high just eight days ago and is up 17% year to date compared to gains of 13.5%, 12%, and 10.3% for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively. DJ30 -10.89 NASDAQ +5.26 SP500 +1.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1371/1576/1.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1239/1917/986 mln

1:30 pm : The major averages now trade in split fashion as a turnaround in Utilities leaves sector leadership evenly matched. Aside from further appreciation in the Energy sector and continued momentum in Technology helping to lift the S&P 500 and Nasdaq into the green, Health Care is also providing some notable leadership. The sector is getting its biggest lift from a 1.9% surge in the sector's most influential constituent and Dow component Pfizer (PFE 27.58 +0.51), which raised its fiscal 2006 EPS outlook. Distributors (+2.7%), the day's second best performing S&P industry group, is also lending some sector support following reports that Cardinal Health (CAH 64.67 +2.84) will use the proceeds from a $1.8 bln divestiture of its Pharmaceutical Technologies & Services unit for an expanded stock buyback. DJ30 -13.38 NASDAQ +3.01 SP500 +1.31 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1485/1428/1.05 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1412/1740/880 mln

1:00 pm : The indices continue to pare their losses as the Energy sector finally begins to take advantage of another rise in oil prices. Even though crude for January delivery has barely budged since the last update, still up more than 1.0% above $63/bbl, renewed enthusiasm for oil stocks now has Energy providing more notable leadership with a 1.0% advance. As was the case yesterday, Exxon Mobil (XOM 76.67 +0.64) and Chevron (CVX 72.30 +1.25) hitting fresh historic highs are acting as the biggest sources of support for the broader market. DJ30 -37.29 NASDAQ -1.20 SP500 -1.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1452/1441/978 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1342/1788/816 mln

12:30 pm : The afternoon session picks up where the morning session left off -- in negative territory. It is worth noting, though, that a turnaround in Technology has helped the indices pare some of their losses. Apple Computer (AAPL 92.28 +0.48) has been the most noticeable reason behind the sector's rebound as the stock has turned the corner amid reports that AAPL applied for a cellphone patent in August. The filing was just made public. Be that as it may, oil prices simultaneously flirting with session highs above $63/bbl are stalling the market's recovery attempts.DJ30 -45.54 NASDAQ -4.37 SOX +0.7% SP500 -2.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1560/1314/862 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1553/1556/722 mln

[54anickel]

54. Kerkorian Selling Another 14M GM Shares

Kirk Kerkorian Selling Another 14 Million GM Shares, Reducing Stake to Under 5 Pct

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061130/gm_kerkorian.html?.v=6

DETROIT (AP) -- Dissident General Motors Corp. shareholder Kirk Kerkorian is selling another 14 million shares in the troubled automaker, dropping his stake by a third to 4.95 percent for a price of just over $400 million.

The billionaire's move disclosed Thursday represents an even larger retreat from his ownership of the world's biggest automaker than previous indications.

The investor's stock sale was disclosed even as GM announced it has completed a deal announced in April to sell a 51 percent stake in its finance unit to private investors for about $14 billion.

That was part of the automaker's plan to gain some financial flexibility as it struggles to compete with Asian automakers who have been eroding its market share at home. GM has lost more than $3 billion in the first nine months of the year, and is slashing its U.S. work force in an effort to cuts costs.

GM shares sank 20 cents to $29.30 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

more...

[specimenfred1984]

55. The Huge Fraud Continues

A 23,800 volume pump in the mini S&P futures at 1:18, followed by a 20,362 dump at 2:00, followed by a 23,800 pump at 2:36 and a 32,886 pump at 2:40.

Pumping and dumping 20,000 to 30,000 mini S&P futures contracts at a time, this is no market for an "investor". It's a fascist bank fraud being played by huge firms.

You think you can trust huge firms? I don't.

[54anickel]

56. The Whole World is Watching

http://news.goldseek.com/DollarCollapse/1164643380.php

Thanksgiving weekend wasn't exactly peaceful for the world’s central bankers. On Friday the dollar capped a down week with a near-vertical fall that only stopped because the markets closed. So while the rest of us were watching TV and blissfully pigging out, our economic policy makers spent two anxious days contemplating Monday’s open and the possibility that, with global trade imbalances at unsustainable levels, China actively diversifying out of dollars and Iraq dissolving into civil war, the dollar has finally entered its death spiral.

A year or two ago this wouldn’t have been so stressful. Instead, first thing Monday morning the response would have been swift, decisive and, maybe, two-pronged. Central banks would have bought dollars and dumped yen and euros to prop up the dollar (that’s the public prong). Meanwhile (according to a growing number of serious people), shadowy arms of the U.S. Treasury and foreign central banks would have secretly dumped gold and bought up large cap stocks to give the appearance of business as usual in the financial markets. And the markets would have stabilized, with most of us never noticing a thing.

The group doing this hypothetical secret manipulating is commonly known as the “Plunge Protection Team.” The term was coined by the Washington Post in a 1997 article about an interagency “Working Group” that formed after the 1987 crash to address such situations in the future:

snip>

But technically doable doesn’t mean risk-free. This time around the sound-money community is onto the game, and the crowd watching for PPT footprints has grown into an army. So IF there is a PPT and IF it routinely messes with gold and stocks, then its operatives have a real dilemma. Tonight and tomorrow would be ideal—maybe crucial—times to smack gold and boost stocks, but doing so runs a heightened risk of exposure, thanks to the suddenly large number of eyes on these markets and the ability of the Internet to force-feed fringe ideas to the mainstream media.

So what will it be, Messers Paulson and Bernanke? Remember, the whole world is watching.

more...

[54anickel]

57. Closin'- still some settling in the volume numbers going on

Dow 12,221.93 4.80 (0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,431.77 0.46 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,400.65 1.17 (0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 4.4580% 0.0630
30-yr Bond 4.5610% 0.0510
NYSE Volume 3,258,011,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,015,835,000

3:30 pm : The underlying bullish tone responsible for lifting stocks virtually uncontested over the last four months continues to rear its head. With all 10 sectors now trading in positive territory, and market internals reflecting a much more upbeat bias, sellers appear to be sidelined for good going into the close. The ability by the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to break through key resistance levels of 12260, 1403 and 2438, respectively, is also contributing to this afternoon's buying efforts. DJ30 +45.83 NASDAQ +8.52 SP500 +6.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1268/1749/1.57 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1052/2201/1.37 bln :eyes:

3:00 pm : In similar fashion to trading action yesterday, the fact that the NYMEX is now closed and crude oil futures failed to close at session highs, has given the market an added boost of confidence. No where is this scenario more evident than in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which was languishing in the red all day but is now posting a respectable gain and is largely responsible for a noticeable turnaround in the Industrials sector. The Treasury market rallying into the close of trading, with the yield on the 10-year note (+17/32) about to finish the session below 4.5% (at 4.45%) for the first time since January, is also worth noting as the rate-sensitive Financials sector has pared most of its intraday losses and is now relatively flat. DJ30 +26.84 NASDAQ +8.58 SP500 +5.68 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1269/1703/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1086/2151/1.20 bln

2:30 pm : The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are relinquishing what were minimal gains to begin with as oil prices rally into the close of trading on the NYMEX. Even though crude for January delivery looks like it will close up about 0.9% near $63/bbl, the commodity was up as much as 2.1% at $63.75/bbl within the last 30 minutes, taking some steam out of afternoon recovery efforts and acting as somewhat of an offset to Energy's leadership. DJ30 -21.23 NASDAQ +2.15 SP500 +0.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1442/1532/1.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1361/1836/1.07 bln

2:00 pm : Equities remain mixed, as the Dow's recent stint into positive territory is short-lived, but continue to trade near their best levels of the afternoon amid spirited leadership from a number of blue chips. Faring even better, though, are small caps, as the Russell 2000 is up 0.4% on the day while the three majors continue to vacillate around the unchanged mark. The Russell 2000 hit a historic high just eight days ago and is up 17% year to date compared to gains of 13.5%, 12%, and 10.3% for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq, respectively. DJ30 -10.89 NASDAQ +5.26 SP500 +1.47 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1371/1576/1.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1239/1917/986 mln

[54anickel]

61. Settling complete - jeebus check out the volumes

Dow 12,221.93 4.80 (0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,431.77 0.46 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,400.63 1.15 (0.08%)
10-yr Bond 4.4580% 0.0630
30-yr Bond 4.5610% 0.0510
NYSE Volume 3,768,396,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,136,982,000

4:20 pm : The market garnered some afternoon bargain-hunting interest and enjoyed leadership from some key sectors to lift stocks to session highs late in the day. Two straight sessions of recouping some of Monday's widespread sell-off, however, left stocks looking lethargic as all three major averages finished relatively unchanged.

Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that the closely-watched core-PCE deflator rose 0.2%. That was a bit disappointing since only a 0.1% increase was expected. Given the report's ability to influence the market's mentality on consumer spending activity and the Fed's thinking on monetary policy, a higher than expected read on the central bank's favored inflation gauge left the year/year increase at an "uncomfortably high" rate of 2.4%.

Throw in the fact that oil prices were eclipsing $63/bbl, November same-store sales were rather disappointing, and a discouraging update on regional manufacturing activity, and it was little surprise to see that the market lost the momentum it showed at the onset of trading.

The Chicago PMI fell to its lowest level (49.9%) in October, and below the 50 level, indicating contraction in the Midwest region. Since the PMI has the highest correlation with the most influential of all the manufacturing surveys -- tomorrow's national ISM Index -- the lowest PMI reading in more than three years renewed concerns that manufacturing may be entering a downturn.

Meanwhile, Treasuries rallied on the report as it provided more evidence of an economic slowdown. However, even though the yield on the 10-yr note closed below 4.5% (at 4.45%) for the first time since January, the inability of the rate-sensitive Financials sector to take advantage also acted as an overhang throughout the session.

Of the seven sectors closing higher, Energy was again the main reason stocks were doing as well as they were late in the day since the sector's leadership as a profit engine for the S&P 500 temporarily helped investors look beyond crude oil's potential inflationary characteristics. As was the case yesterday, Exxon Mobil (XOM 76.81 +0.78) and Chevron (CVX 72.32 +1.27) hitting new historic highs acted as the biggest sources of support for the broader market. Crude for January delivery, up as much as 2.1% at $63.75/bbl, closed up about 0.9% at two-month highs near $63/bbl amid reports of cold weather sweeping across the country.

Health Care also provided some notable leadership, getting its biggest lift from a 1.6% surge in the sector's most influential constituent, and Dow component, Pfizer (PFE 27.50 +0.43). The drug giant raised its fiscal 2006 EPS outlook. Strength in HMOs and Distributors, two of today's top five performing S&P industry groups, lent some additional sector support.

With investors focused on how well the holiday shopping period is developing, the Consumer Discretionary was also in focus Thursday as investors sifted through a plethora of November same-store sales figures. The majority of retailers missing analysts' expectations underpinned some nervousness about the health of the consumer. Among the biggest names tumbling after coming up short of Wall Street's forecasts were Kohl's (KSS 69.54 -1.14), JC Penney (JCP 77.41 -2.19), Gap (GPS 18.74 -0.33) and Nordstrom (JWN 49.00 -1.41).

Dow component Wal-Mart (WMT 46.08 -0.81) also lost ground after it confirmed a 0.1% decrease in Nov. comps, the first decline in a decade, and said Dec. comps will be flat to up 1.0%. It is worth noting that Wal-Mart is actually a constituent of Consumer Staples, which turned in the day's worst performance. DJ30 -4.80 NASDAQ -0.46 SP500 +1.15 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1425/1626/2.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1202/2084/1.93 bln

[Ghost Dog]

62. U.S. stocks rise as energy shares counter sour PMI

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=usMktRpt&storyID=2006-11-30T201329Z_01_N30206014_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-10-SNAPSHOT-CORRECTED.XML&WTmodLoc=InvArt-L3-MoreNewsToday-2

NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rose, overcoming earlier losses, on Thursday as a jump in oil prices pushed up energy shares, overshadowing a surprising drop in Midwest business activity and a disappointing outlook by Wal-Mart Stores Inc.(WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research)

A nearly 1 percent rally in crude oil prices gave investors a reason to buy energy companies' stocks. Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares rose 1 percent and contributed the most to the S&P 500's gain. Exxon Mobil also was among the Dow's biggest advancers.

...

Coming off the sidelines, mutual fund managers buying shares ahead of year end pushed the market higher, said Tim Smalls, head of U.S. stock trading at brokerage firm Execution LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut.

...

"Investors are reluctant to chase the market higher here, but any time there's any significant weakness, it seems as though traders are coming in and buying that weakness pretty aggressively," said Michael Malone, trading analyst at Cowen & Co. in New York.

/...

[54anickel]

64. Makes no sense other than they're all nuts. n/t