Forecaster predicts busy 2007 US hurricane season

[UrbScotty]

http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=domesticNews&storyID=2006-12-07T185721Z_01_L07129128_RTRUKOC_0_US-HURRICANES-FORECAST.xml&WTmodLoc=USNewsHome_C2_domesticNews-1

The United States, which has emerged from this year's hurricane season largely unscathed, should brace itself for a potentially devastating hurricane season in 2007, a leading windstorm forecaster warned.

A long-range forecast for next year issued by Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based forecaster, on Thursday predicted an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season with a strong probability that more hurricanes will slam into the United States than usual, based on average figures for the period 1950 to 2006.

It said that 16 tropical storms were likely to occur in the Atlantic basin, nine of which would be hurricanes and four likely to be so-called intense hurricanes.

Five tropical storms are likely to hit America, of which two will be hurricanes, TSR said.

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[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Didn't they say that about this year?

[melm00se]

2. yup

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5422929

doesn't build a lot of confidence in their predictions

(but hurricanes are so damn dangerous you can't ignore warnings)

[napi21]

3. Yep! Must be backed by the ins. industry who want to justify

keeping their rates high!

[transeo]

11. El Nino messed up the predictions and it was very active year

Just not for the U.S. Other parts of the world got slammed. They didn't see El Nino coming far enough in advance to see how it will impact the 2006 hurricane season.

[StClone]

14. I'll say

[bullimiami]

4. they have no idea. it is obvious.

all of us in hurricane territory should just be prepared and aware.
they are pretty good at tracking and not bad at predicting the potential path of active storms. it should be enough.

[greccogirl]

5. Oh please let's not start this stuff again!

They looked like idiots this past year..................

[halobeam]

6. I've been wracking my brain trying to remember

where I read a scientific explanation as to why there were less hurricanes this year. The gist of it was that global warming was significantly worse than they originally thought, giving a detailed understanding how it actually stopped the storms/slowed them from forming. If I'm not crazy, I thought it might have to do with the detection of a slowing jet stream. Anyone with real knowledge of this info, can chime in at any time, please. LOL...

[RaleighNCDUer]

9. A strong El Nino this year, which created powerful upper atmosphere

currents which kept the Atlantic storms from organizing.

the question is, how does the El Nino look for next season?

[Lisa]

10. NOAA forecast -- warm phase until May 2007?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html

"Most of the statistical and coupled model forecasts, including the NCEP Climate forecast System (CFS), indicate that El Niño conditions will peak during the NH winter (December 2006-February 2007), followed by weakening during March-May 2007."

If the forecast is correct, and the weakening trend continues, the El Nino effects whould be gone by the time the 2007 hurricane season kicks into high gear.



I should mention that an El Nino isn't all good news (though of course I'm glad that Atlantic hurricane formation was subdued this past season). Other places get hit with heavy weather during El Nino conditions, so stuff like winter/spring flooding in the Pacific Northwest can result ... of course I'd gladly put up with a couple inches of water in my basement, if my friends on the Gulf Coast are going to dodge a hurricane, but we already know that these climate oscillations have consequences. It's already been well-documented that the extra rainfall in the southwest could increase wildfire hazard for a couple of years after (time lag due to fuel buildup from extra plant growth).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/index.shtml


TSR's forecasting record seems to be as accurate (or even more so, in 2005) than the Colorado State team.

[TheCowsCameHome]

7. You can't even predict last year, let alone next year. Get a real job.

Please.

[transeo]

12. Isn't it better to prepare for the worst rather than get surprised?

If being wrong once disqualified people from jobs, we'd all be fired. Our planet is incredibly complex and unforseen factors like this year's El Nino can hugely change what occurs weather wise. Ask the people of Mexico, China and the Phillipines what they think of the 2006 tropical cyclone season. They all got hit, sometimes very hard. The U.S. just happened to be spared.

[TheCowsCameHome]

13. How can hurricanes be predicted? Really, no kidding.

To make predictions of this type of thing is impossible. The entire east and gulf coasts know these thing are going to happen, "forecast" a year in advance or not.

It's like predicting earthquakes - it can't be done.

[bianca2001]

8. GREAT!!!

The 2006 Season just ended in November.

I am sure that we here in Florida and the rest of the hurricane-prone
areas really wanted to hear about the 2007 season this soon!

Like we don't already have enough to worry about, in this country.

It must be the 'season' for 'know-it-alls' to put in their $.02 worth.