STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday December 11

[ozymandius]

Monday December 11, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 770 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2175 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1881 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1842
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 7
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 8, 2006

Dow... 12,307.49 +29.08 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq... 2,437.36 +9.67 (+0.40%)
S&P 500... 1,409.84 +2.55 (+0.18%)
Gold future... 631.00 -6.00 (-0.95%)
30-Year Bond 4.66% +0.06 (+1.28%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.55% +0.07 (+1.54%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Warning Signs

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Oct
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.6%
Prior 0.8%

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[Ghost Dog]

27. Wholesale inventories build to 3-year high (rise 0.8%)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/wholesale-inventories-rise-3-year-high/story.aspx?guid=%7B9BEF7EFB%2D8F10%2D4B25%2D81F3%2DD07D2574DD78%7D
Sales fall 0.5%, 2nd decline in a row; inventories rise 0.8%

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose to their highest level in relation to sales in three years in October, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

Sales at wholesalers fell 0.5% in October, the second decline in a row after sales fell a revised 1.5% in September, which was the fastest drop in three years. Inventories rose 0.8% in October after gaining 0.7% in September.

The inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.20 in October from 1.18 in September. The last time the ratio was bigger was in November 2003. The inventory-sales ratio stood at a record low 1.15 in May, June and July. The typical wholesaler has about 37 days of sales on hand, up from 35 days in July. Read the full government report.

The buildup in inventories, if sustained throughout the pipeline running from production to final sales, could lead to cutbacks in output and employment.
Economists were expecting inventories to rise about 0.6% in October, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Full Story.

Wholesale inventories are up 10.1% in the past year. Wholesale sales are up 5.9% in the past year. The figures are not adjusted for price changes.

/...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil sinks below $62, Saudi deepens Jan supply curbs

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices eased below $62 on Monday, extending last week's losses, as concern over brimming global fuel inventories offset a likely second supply cut by
OPEC and news of deepening Saudi export curbs.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets on Thursday in Nigeria. OPEC agreed to lower output by 1.2 million barrels per day from November 1.

On Friday, OPEC President Edmund Daukoru said he favored a further reduction to counter hefty stockpiles, particularly in the United States, where crude inventories are at the highest level for this time of year since 1993.

But some traders remain doubtful that the reduction will be enough to head off a near-term supply glut, particularly if winter weather remains mild. The U.S.
National Weather Service on Sunday predicted significantly warmer than usual conditions in the eastern United States over the next 6 to 10 days.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/markets_oil_dc

[ozymandius]

4. Australia's Santos eyes sale of U.S. oil interests

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australian oil and gas producer Santos Ltd. (STO.AX) said on Monday it planned to sell its exploration and production activities in the United States to focus on its home market, Asia and the Middle East.

"Continued high demand for energy in the U.S. has resulted in a strong market for assets in Santos' U.S. business areas, making it a good time to bring this portfolio to the market," Santos said in a statement, without specifying whether it was in active talks with any potential buyers.

Its U.S. operations produced 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) during 2005, out of total annual production of 56 million boe.

-cut-

Santos' operations in the U.S. include ongoing exploration and development activities onshore and offshore the gulf coast of Texas, as well as in western Colorado. The company also holds leases to approximately 60,000 acres of land.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061211/bs_nm/santos_us_dc_1

[Ghost Dog]

9. World economy can withstand resulting impact; ‘Opec must cut output’

http://www.arabtimesonline.com/arabtimes/business/view.asp?msgID=7251

With oil inventories high and above normal levels, it is time for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) to cut their production ceiling during the forthcoming meeting in Nigeria next week. Opec must take a firm stand and try by all means to put off the pressure from oil consuming nations not to reduce their production, as well as pressure from international energy agencies.

There is a majority consensus among most Opec members to reduce oil production further during their next week meeting. Opec is very much concerned that oil prices will be weakened substantially and prices can well hit below $50 per barrel level, if it does not cut production by a further 500,000 to 800,000 barrels per day from Jan 1, 2007. So Opec’s reduction will not have any impact on current oil prices and its effect will take place after the winter season. Opec has committed itself to a fair oil price of $60 per barrel for US crude. It means the Opec basket price of $55 which is acceptable to oil consuming and producing nations, will neither have any impact nor harm the world economy in the near future nor in the long run.

Such a new level of Opec basket will be defending it and be protected. So to achieve the new target of $60, the oil organization needs to put its foot down and ensure it will maintain this new level as long as it can either way, increasing its production to avoid any further escalation of prices and by reducing production to avoid oil prices hitting below the $60.00 ceiling for US crude.
Certainly the oil consuming nations will begin talking to the big oil producers asking them not to make any cuts in their oil production level during this winter and to defer any decision on further cuts for the end of next month.

On the other hand with crude oil inventories above normal levels nowadays and knowing well that Opec will pour any needed quantity of oil to stabilize the markets as it had done many times before, there are no reasons for Opec not to reduce their output to defend oil prices in order to stabilize the oil market on the long run basis.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

10. Iran says crude prices to climb above $70/barrel

http://www.arabtimesonline.com/arabtimes/business/view.asp?msgID=7258
Iran says crude prices to climb above $70/barrel; Opec set to cut output amid carping over quotas

TEHRAN (Agencies): Oil prices should climb back above $70 a barrel as a result of winter weather in the northern hemisphere and Opec output decisions, a senior Iranian oil official was quoted as saying on Sunday. “The oil price in the world market has been more than $70 per barrel in the past, but considering the fact that we are approaching winter and demand is increasing, this price could be higher,” said Gholamhossein Nozari, managing director of state oil company NIOC.

“We are trying to increase the current oil price through controlling the market,” the official IRNA news agency said. Oil prices in New York and London closed just above $62 per barrel on Friday. The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries holds a meeting on Dec 14 to decide on output policy. Opec President Edmund Daukoru has said he favours a cut in production by the cartel, deepening a cut of 1.2 million barrels per day agreed in October.

Iran’s Opec governor, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, said Opec ministers needed to take into account ample US oil stockpiles, the weakening dollar, slower-than-expected world economic growth and forecasts of strong non-Opec oil production growth. “Opec will make appropriate decisions by having these realities in mind,” he told reporters on the fringe of an energy conference in Tehran on Sunday. Ministers from the 11-member Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries are likely to decide on a further cut in Opec oil output when they gather Thursday in Abuja, Nigeria, analysts say.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

29. Oil falls as warm weather blankets U.S.

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=c5570544-1691-4629-becf-2c1d028e1cd6
Mon, Dec 11 2006, 19:51 GMT

NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Oil fell nearly a dollar on Monday as mild weather blanketed much of the United States, cutting into heating oil demand from the world's largest energy consuming nation.

The drop in prices was limited, however, as dealers looked ahead to OPEC's meeting in Nigeria on Thursday at which the group's ministers will consider deepening a production cut to drain soaring world energy stockpiles.

U.S. crude prices slipped 77 cents, or 1.2 percent, to $61.28 a barrel by 1930 GMT, while London Brent crude fell 22 cents to $61.98 a barrel.

"The mild weather should keep some pressure on prices," said Mike Fitzpatrick, vice president for energy risk management at Fimat USA. "The market is waiting for OPEC and inventory data or something substantial to move it."

U.S. heating demand is expected to be nearly 27 percent below normal this week with warmer temperatures in most regions east of the Rockies, the National Weather Service said Monday.

The warmer weather comes after the season's first cold blast last week pushed heating demand about 18 percent above normal, the NWS said in its weekly report.

U.S. oil prices are about 20 percent below the all-time high of $78.40 a barrel hit in July, but have been sticking in a range near $60 a barrel since the end of September as dealers weigh high inventories against OPEC cuts.

A slim majority in OPEC want to cut the group's output further at Thursday's meeting, a top OPEC official told Reuters. Saudi-owned Al Hayat newspaper quoted OPEC sources as saying the group would keep supply unchanged.

/...

[ozymandius]

5. European gains driven by steelmakers

European stocks were higher on Monday as gains, driven by takeover speculation, offset falling oil producers as crude prices weakened.

In early trade, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was up 0.6 per cent to 1,458.2, Frankfurt's Xetra Dax gained 0.6 per cent to 6,462.61, the CAC 40 was 0.7 per cent higher at 5,421.42 and London's FTSE 100 climbed 0.4 per cent to 6,175.0.

In New York on Friday, stocks gained modestly despite weakening US consumer confidence, as non-farm payrolls data on job creation showed there was life in the world's largest economy yet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2 per cent to 12,307.49, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4 per cent to 2,437.36.

-cut-

Steelmakers were active as investors grappled for position amid expectations of further consolidation in the sector. Corus, the Anglo-Dutch group, was 4.3 per cent higher at EU7.72 on the prospect of a bidding war as Tata Steel of India said it was "considering its position" after CSN, the Brazilian steel company agreed to buy Corus for £4.9bn.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20061211/bs_ft/fto121120060443147779

[Ghost Dog]

11. China stocks end up 4.15 pct as large caps soar

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20061211:MTFH99873_2006-12-11_09-17-10_PEK222344&type=comktNews&rpc=44

SHANGHAI, Dec 11 (Reuters) - China's benchmark stock index soared 4.15 percent on Monday, its second biggest daily gain this year, as the entrance of new funds and the approach of the year-end encouraged frantic buying of banks and other blue chips.

The Shanghai composite index <.SSEC> opened slightly lower but rose throughout the day, accelerating in the final 15 minutes. It closed at 2,180.496 points, just off its intra-day peak of 2,181.164.

The rise more than eclipsed the index's 2.93 percent tumble on Friday, which traders attributed to a round of profit-taking following this month's large gains. This year's biggest rise was 4.26 percent on May 12.

Turnover in Shanghai-listed A shares was a heavy 36.8 billion yuan ($4.70 billion) on Monday, though down from 47 billion yuan on Friday.

"New funds are buying to meet their basic contract requirements, while there's window-dressing at the end of the year. This will help the bull continue running after its short rest," said Major Teng at Everbright Securities.

Technically, Monday's rebound was bullish because it caused the index to hold support on its 14-day moving average, now at 2,101, which has not been broken by two consecutive daily closes since the latest rally began in mid-August.

While this support holds, many traders may continue to view the market as short-term bullish and target the all-time high of 2,245, hit in June 2001.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

12. Indian shares fall more than 2 pct, banks lead

http://in.today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-12-11T124629Z_01_NOOTR_RTRJONC_0_India-279821-2.xml

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Indian shares fell more than 2 percent on Monday, led by banking issues after the central bank tightened monetary policy by raising cash reserve requirements, making lending a more difficult task.

At 0704 GMT, India's main 30-share BSE index had dropped 2.04 percent to 13,517.97 points, which was its lowest since November 21, while the 50-issue Nifty was down nearly 2 percent to 3,883.90.

/.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/774825.cms
D-St bleeds: Sensex pulls back marginallyAdd to Clippings

INDIATIMES NEWS NETWORK< MONDAY, DECEMBER 11, 2006 01:23:43 PM>
NEW DELHI: It was a 'Bloody Monday' at the Dalal Street that ended the bull run today. While some analysts said that it was the bubble burst, others felt it was a correction to the momentum of the last fortnight. The stock markets slid in the early afternoon trade to plunge over 500 points before a mild recovery was witnessed soon after. All sectoral indices were in the nagative while banking stocks were the worst hit. Sensex and Nifty had lost almost 3% by the afternoon. The nagative sentiments were led by ICICI Bank and State Bank of India after the Reserve Bank of India tightened monetary policy while Tata Steel dropped on its raised bid for Anglo-Dutch steel maker Corus. A sell-off had gripped bank shares, while telecom service providers, cement and auto shares had drifted lower.

/...

[AnneD]

18. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. Ghost Dog....I think we had a good call about India a few weeks ago. I just love that their market is called Sensex, better than the FTSE. There is still plenty of room for growth, and I think this is just an overdue correction. I feel better about their economy than ours at the moment.

Well I worked so extra this weekend and what a joy to get some extra coming in. I see a lot of stores on my drive. Lots of space in those parking lots. Can't wait to se those numbers. If is isn't much over inflation-it will be the first red Christmas in a while.

Hubby's nephew is coming to Canada from Bombay for some training (he works for an American Co.and is doing well). Hubby is going to Toronto to spend a day or two with him). I wish I could go-his nephew is one member that I really like-movie star handsome, sweet as can be, and smart as a whip. We got some baby clothes for his sister's children and some other gifts. Poor guy will come back loaded.

Hubby is going to check out property etc while he is there. Always looking for a potential spot to live. I am sure he won't find much in the short time he is there;but he can tell if he would like it or not.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Ghost Dog]

13. Nikkei hits 6-week high on dollar's rise, improved sentiment

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061211/kyodo/d8lugad00.html

(Kyodo) _ Japan's key Nikkei stock index hit a six-week closing high Monday, aided by the U.S. dollar's rise against the yen and improved market sentiment on the possible extension of tax breaks on stock trading.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average gained 110.17 points, or 0.67 percent, to end the day at 16,527.399, the highest since Oct. 27. The Tokyo Stock Price Index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was up 11.63 points, or 0.72 percent, to 1,627.97.

Toyota Motor, Sony and other export-oriented issues gained ground after the dollar appreciated against the yen on the heels of the announcement of stronger-than-expected November U.S. nonfarm payroll data.

Brokers said sentiment in the market improved after rebound in U.S. shares and reports that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is considering extending tax breaks on stocks trading beyond the scheduled expiration within fiscal 2007.

"The market sentiment has improved on the pause in the yen's recent appreciation as well as tax break reports and investors are trying to test the upside," said Kazuhiro Takahashi, head of equity planning and administration department at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co.

/...

[ozymandius]

6. Nissan aims to launch fuel-cell vehicle in early 2010s

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- Nissan Motor Co. (7201.TO) said Monday that it aims to launch a fuel cell vehicle in the early 2010s in Japan and North America, under its mid-term goal to unveil more environmentally-friendly vehicles.

Among other steps under its "Nissan Green Program 2010," Nissan said it will introduce from fiscal year 2010 gasoline engine technologies that will enhance fuel economy and at the same time reduce carbon dioxide emissions equivalent to diesel engine levels. It will also develop a "three-liter car," capable of traveling 100 kilometers using just three liters of gasoline, with a target to unveil a new model in Japan in 2010.

very short

[ozymandius]

7. See you when it's done.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Have fun at the Casino folks. I'll check in when my day's work is done.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 83.49 Change -0.06 (-0.07%)

Treasury Secretary Paulson Praises NFP's, Boosts Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Treasury_Secretary_Paulson_Praises_NFP_s__1165622902772.html

US Dollar
As we said yesterday, Friday’s economic indicators would assess whether volatility had truly returned to the FX market. For those looking for trading opportunities in a more active market, the results didn’t disappoint. A consistently top ranked market-moving indicator, today’s NFPs built pressure behind the dollar; but the initial reaction was muddled. Payrolls through the month of November grew 132,000 heads, which was both better than expected and far above the previous month’s read. This headline number, on the other hand, was tainted by a revision in October’s figure from 92,000 to 79,000. What’s more, in comparison to the average payroll additions in the first half of the year, this was a modest improvement. The same mixed sentiment was present in the remaining statistics of the labor report. Average hourly earnings for the month rebounded to a 4.2 percent annual pace of expansion, while the jobless rate countered by stepping up to 4.5 percent. Taking a deeper look into the employment numbers broken down by sector, the same offsetting sentiment was seen. So, from all angles, the labor numbers could have been regarded as the average print. However, these numbers were not taken in isolation; and it was the contrast drawn against preconceived dollar pessimism that helped to sow the seeds of a rally. With fears over the economy heading for a hard landing prevailing over the dollar, today’s employment and wage numbers helped alleviate the pressure while diverting expectations for a Fed rate cut by the first quarter of 2007. With this underlying optimism lying in wait, all that was needed was a trigger. Enter Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson who sparked the rally when he offered his opinion that today’s employment numbers were ‘good news’ and provided evidence economic growth was heading toward sustainable levels. On these comments the dollar entered a steep rally against most of its major pairs that easily measured over 100 points.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

14. Dollar hits 3-week high vs. yen as prospects of BOJ rate hike recede

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/061211/kyodo/d8luhd180.html

(Kyodo) _ The U.S. dollar extended gains against the yen Monday in Tokyo, briefly hitting a nearly three-week high just below 117 yen on receding prospects for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

At 5 p.m., the dollar was quoted at 116.63-66 yen, up from Friday's 5 p.m. quotes of 116.27-37 yen in New York and 115.37-39 yen in Tokyo. It moved between 116.16 yen and 116.96 yen during the day, trading most frequently at 116.70 yen. The session peak was its highest level in Tokyo since Nov. 22.

The euro traded at $1.3201-3204 and 153.99-154.03 yen, against Friday's 5 p.m. quotes of $1.3198-3208 and $153.53-63 yen in New York and $1.3275-3277 and 153.16-20 yen in Tokyo.

Dealers said market players bought the dollar in response to some weekend reports that the BOJ is unlikely to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next week, given recent weak data on the Japanese economy, including the sharp downward revision of the July-September gross domestic product growth.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

15. Oil producers shun dollar

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/277471c2-8889-11db-b485-0000779e2340.html

Oil producing countries have reduced their exposure to the dollar to the lowest level in two years and shifted oil income into euros, yen and sterling, according to new data from the Bank for International Settlements.

The revelation in the latest BIS quarterly review, published on Monday, confirms market speculation about a move out of dollars and could put new pressure on the ailing US currency.

Market liquidity is traditionally low in December, and many traders have locked in profits, potentially reinforcing volatility.

Russia and the members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the oil cartel, cut their dollar holdings from 67 per cent in the first quarter to 65 per cent in the second.

Meanwhile, they increased their holdings of euros from 20 to 22 per cent, the BIS said. The speed of the shift may help to explain the weakness of the dollar, which recently fell to a 20-month low against the euro and a 14-year low against sterling.

The BIS, the central bank for the developed world’s central banks, is customarily cautious in its language. However, it noted: “While the data are not comprehensive, they do appear to indicate a modest shift over the quarter in the US dollar share of reporting banks’ liabilities to oil exporting countries.”

The review shows that Qatar and Iran, whose foreign exchange policy has sparked widespread market speculation, cut their dollar holdings by $2.4bn and $4bn respectively.

Such shifts may be modest compared with the total assets held, but they provide a crucial indication on future thinking.

Currency switches are likely to be progressive, subtle and discreet, as untoward attention could hit the dollar, lowering the value of depositors’ remaining dollar-denominated assets.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

16. The petrodollar peg

http://economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8380713
Dec 7th 2006
From The Economist print edition
America should worry more about fixed exchange rates in the Gulf than the gently rising Chinese yuan

AMERICAN politicians and businessmen view China's undervalued exchange rate and its huge current-account surplus as the main cause of America's vast deficit. Thus next week a high-powered delegation led by Henry Paulson, America's treasury secretary, will fly to Beijing to persuade China to take measures to reduce its surplus. But are they heading to the right place? At the global level, the biggest counterpart to America's deficit is the combined surpluses of the oil-exporting emerging economies. They are expected to run a total current-account surplus of some $500 billion this year, dwarfing China's likely surplus of $200 billion (see chart).

Counting only the Middle East oil exporters, the surplus has surged from $30 billion in 2002 to an estimated $280 billion this year. One reason why this gets much less attention than the smaller $160 billion increase in China is that only a fraction of it has gone into official reserves, which are publicly reported. Most of it is stashed in government oil-stabilisation or investment funds, such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which are much more secretive than the People's Bank of China—but which probably hold just as many dollar assets.

One big difference is that China is now allowing the yuan to rise against the dollar. The exchange rate is up by an annual rate of almost 7% since September. In contrast, the six members of the Gulf Co-operation Council, or GCC (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar), which account for virtually all of the Middle East's surplus, still peg their currencies firmly to the dollar. This is partly in preparation for the GCC's plan to adopt a single currency by 2010. But the bizarre result is that over the past four years of soaring oil prices, their real trade-weighted exchange rates have fallen.

The Gulf economies are running an average current-account surplus of 30% of their GDP, well in excess of China's surplus of 8%. Oil exporters cannot spend their windfall overnight and it makes sense for them to run a surplus when oil prices rise, as a buffer for when oil prices fall. Even so, one can have too much of a good thing.

It might be best for the Gulf states as well as the world economy if they abandoned their dollar pegs and shifted to some sort of currency basket. A more flexible exchange-rate regime would allow them to regain control of their monetary policies and so cool down their overheating economies. By pegging their exchange rates to the dollar, they have had to adopt America's monetary policy, leaving real interest rates too low (often negative) for such fast-growing economies. Credit is growing too rapidly, inflation is rising and the prices of assets, especially property in places such as Dubai, have exploded.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

23. Greenspan says expects more dollar weakness

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061211/bs_nm/usa_greenspan_dc

TEL AVIV (Reuters) - Former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday he expected the dollar to stay weak for the next few years and will continue to drift down, weighed by the U.S. balance of payments deficit.

"I expect that the dollar will continue to drift downwards until there will be a change in the U.S. balance of payments," Greenspan told a business conference here via video-link from the United States.

"There has been some evidence that OPEC nations are beginning to switch their reserves out of dollars and into euro and yen," Greenspan said.

"It is imprudent to hold everything in one currency," he said, adding that at some point the dollar will be moving lower.

"That will be the experience of the next few years," Greenspan said.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

24. Dollar Falls After Greenspan Says He Expects Further Decline

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajKmspDpHd0M&refer=worldwide
By Min Zeng

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell the most in a week against the euro after former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the U.S. currency will probably keep dropping until the nation's current-account deficit shrinks.

The U.S. currency fell in three of the past four years. It has lost 10.5 percent this year versus the euro as investors bet the European Central Bank would lift interest rates more than the Fed. It's ``imprudent'' for investors to keep their holdings in one currency, Greenspan said.

``The dollar is heading where the current account deficit goes,'' said Tim Mazanec, a senior currency strategist at Investors Bank & Trust Co. in Boston. ``A widening deficit will cause the U.S. more pain.''

The U.S. currency weakened to $1.3251 per euro at 3 p.m. in New York from $1.3203 on Dec. 8. The dollar fell to a 20-month low of $1.3367 per euro this month. The U.S. currency pared some of an earlier gain, trading at 116.85 yen from 116.33 on Dec. 8.

The yen dropped to a record low of 154.87 per euro earlier today after a Bank of Japan official told Jiji Press the central bank probably wouldn't raise interest rates next week.

``I expect that the dollar will continue to drift downward until there is a change in the U.S. current account balance,'' Greenspan said, speaking from Washington by satellite to a business conference in Tel Aviv. ``It's imprudent to hold everything in one currency.''

A bigger shortfall in the U.S. current account, the broadest measure of trade, means more dollars need to be converted into other currencies to pay for imports. The U.S. current-account deficit was $218.4 billion in the second quarter, the second-biggest on record.

``You have a former Fed chairman talking about dollar weakness,'' said Michael Malpede, a senior currency analyst in Chicago at Man Global Research. ``The market is still trapped in a negative dollar sentiment, especially against the euro.''

/...

[mistertrickster]

26. Greenspan? . . . is he still alive? nt

[ozymandius]

34. His body is.

He's been morally dead for about thirty years.

[mistertrickster]

36. Hehe, I agree. Heard him today complaining about "inflation."

When oil prices doubled, was that inflationary? Hell, no, not to Greenspan.

He only worries about one kind of "inflation": wage increases.

As long as the money doesn't go to working people, he's fine with "inflation."

[donkeyotay]

37. "It's imprudent to hold everything in one currency.''

Unless you're part of the slave class. Then, you don't have a choice. The cost of everything, including your Greenspan-approved ARM is going to go up. The value of the few dollars you've got left in checking are about to go down. The rich get richer and the po' po'er.

[Ghost Dog]

17. (UK) Brown's belief in the US economic model of growth at any price is flawed

Labour has sped along the American highway but we would be happier taking Europe's gentler path
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1968972,00.html
Larry Elliott, economics editor
Monday December 11, 2006
The Guardian

Watching Tony Blair's awkward demeanour alongside George Bush at the White House last week, it was striking just how American a country Britain has become under New Labour. It has long been a cliche that the UK is the 51st state of the union, but it has never seemed a more appropriate description.

Indeed, there is a case for saying that after effectively living in sin for so long, it's time to make the "special relationship" legitimate. That's a fantasy, of course. Britain is never going to join the USA, but if it did the prime minister would probably have a lot more clout on the other side of the Atlantic than he does now. No president would be able to ignore what would comfortably be the biggest state in the union.

...

No, what has really made Britain feel more American is the shape of economic policy. Brown is a strong admirer of the American model; he likes its get-up-and-go; he likes the flexibility of its labour market; he likes the entrepreneurial flair; he likes the work ethic. The chancellor's economic agenda can be easily summed up; macro-economic policy is there to keep inflation low and stable; supply-side policies are there to make Britain America's clone.

...

In this context, the US model is bankrupt, since it is all about excess, all the way from its systemic problem with individual obesity all the way up to a colossal trade deficit paid for on tick. Britain's economy comes from a similar mould, albeit on a smaller scale. The Europeans, by contrast, are at least asking the right questions about the nature and wisdom of modern global capitalism. France was pilloried for introducing a 35-hour week, since the policy disobeyed all the rules, but Europeans seem happy to work less and consume less than the Americans and Brits in exchange for a bit more leisure. That seems a lot more sensible than the hyperactive, planet-threatening Anglo-Saxon model.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

21. In a similar vein: Brands have turned us into a nation of addicts

Today's children, who so want to be 'cool', are growing up to be the miserable victims of consumer culture
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1968958,00.html
Jackie Ashley
Monday December 11, 2006
The Guardian

In the seething, elbowing, cursing, foot-aching maelstrom of the Merrie Christmas shopping experience, a piercing cry goes up from along the aisle. You look over and there is a harassed, desperate woman - occasionally a man - on the edge of losing it completely with a child who is having a tantrum. The tot, or schoolchild, is furiously demanding something on the shelf. It is too expensive, or it is too full of sugar or fat, and the parent is trying to say no. Childless shoppers often look disgusted at the lack of control. Anyone with kids will roll a sympathetic eye.

For, mostly, the parent will give in, and it's hardly surprising. On one side, a £30bn child-orientated market, armed with the latest multimedia weapons to lure, catch and keep the inner life of a small son or daughter. On the other side, a busy, guilty, stressed individual parent trying to avoid an embarrassing scene. Who do you think is going to win?

...

Some of that is useful, some less so; but it omits the biggest influence on modern children, which is not the school curriculum, the lectures of the faithful, panics in the press, ministerial initiatives or even family ethos. No, the biggest influence is marketing; the power of brands that invades the minds of the youngest. If you think that's a bit of an exaggeration, try this finding by the National Consumer Council: 70% of three-year-olds recognise McDonalds but only half of them know their own surname. Or how about this, from the same research: the average 10-year-old has internalised 300 to 400 brands?

For many families, Christmas is not the season of goodwill, still less of charity or reflecting on higher things. It is the ultimate festival of pester-power. It is the time of the year when our shopping mania reaches its climax, so the whole country seems to resound not to the sound of sleighbells or carols, but a chorus of "gimme, gimme, gimme ... wanna, wanna, wanna" - the klaxon of consumerist kids.

With pitch-perfect timing, the left-of-centre thinktank Compass is about to publish a report launching its campaign on the Commercialisation of Childhood. It tells us what we already know, but with clarity and urgency. And in short, it's that while sugary foods rot our children's teeth, our sticky-sweet commercial culture is worse. It's rotting their minds and their values.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

22. An excellent and highly relevant comment on the above:

"While I largely agree with Jackie's views, advertisers' exploitation of "pester power" (as it is known in marketing newspeak) has an even darker side. The tendency in debates around advertising to children is to lament the "branding" of childhood and indoctrination of a generation of shallow consumers (not like their parents).

"However the sales power of "coolness" ultimately rests on the social penalties for uncoolness. School is an awful place for those who are bullied, ridiculed or even just ignored – victims of the pitiless social hierarchy of the classroom. The immoral genius of child-directed marketing has been to make brands and products into markers of social acceptability, status totems with a short half-life. What drives those department store tantrums? I suspect that often it is not just the "gimmee more" materialism of the nascent consumer. What underlies those strident demands is the child's (often correct) belief that the possession or lack of a particular product will make a real difference to their place in the playground pecking order.

"The stimulation and valorisation of greed is bad enough. Worse still, however, is the knowing manipulation of children's fear of social exclusion. It is not mere hyperbole to suggest that the overall effect of children's advertising constitutes a form of child abuse. Sweden has banned advertising to children, but in most Western countries similar restrictions would be politically unsaleable. The fact that we lack the collective will to protect our children from this kind of exploitation says a great deal about where our values really lie. "

[stop the bleeding]

19. stopping in to say hello

:hi: hope everyone is well

[Roland99]

20. 12:49pm - Whole lotta nothin' going on

DJIA 12,322.95 +15.46 +0.13%
Nasdaq 2,446.01 +8.65 +0.35%
S&P 500 1,412.60 +2.76 +0.20%
Dow Util 456.71 +0.80 +0.18%
NYSE 9,062.80 +20.61 +0.23%
AMEX 2,082.48 -3.80 -0.18%
Russell 2000 792.70 +0.14 +0.02%
Semcond 478.01 +0.58 +0.12%
Gold future 634.00 +3.00 +0.48%
30-Year Bond 4.63% -0.03 -0.58%
10-Year Bond 4.53% -0.02 -0.53%

Volumes:

NYSE: 645,913,000
NASDAQ: 990,227,000

[mistertrickster]

25. I don't follow your percentage increases--

If the Dow was at 10,5 when BoyKing took office and it's at 12,3 now, that's only an 8 and a half percent rise in almost seven years, right?

Also if the NASDAQ is lower today than when Bush took office, wouldn't that have to represent a loss not a gain?

[ozymandius]

32. I think I know where the confusion is.

You may be looking at daily averages instead of overall averages. At the top of the thread, I post the percentage of either loss or gain from the day before. It is possible that you are inferring these numbers as percentage points' movement since Bush took office.

Does this make sense?

[mistertrickster]

35. Ah, okay . . . so 29 + is the points up from the previous day. Right. nt

[Ghost Dog]

28. Realtors: Home sales may keep falling in 2007

http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/11/real_estate/home_sales.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes
Industry group says 2006 decline likely to continue but should level off by the end of year; increase seen for interest rates.
December 11 2006: 3:14 PM EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Next year will likely bring a second annual decline in existing home sales, the National Association of Realtors predicted Monday.

Sales of existing homes are expected to decline 8.6 percent to 6.47 million for 2006 and contract another 1 percent to 6.40 million units next year.
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Still, the housing sector should see a rebound by the end of next year, said David Lereah, the association's chief economist.

/...

[TrogL]

30. So is there a housing bubble or not?

Some guy on CBC radio was claiming the US had a housing bubble, but it has since burst which will shortly be disastrous for a number of people.

He went on to claim that Canada had NOT had a housing bubble, despite the guy behind me selling his house (pretty much identical to mine) for almost twice what I bought mine for a year ago.

[Ghost Dog]

31. Try this spin, TrogL: Realtors See Existing-home Sales Perking Up

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20061211\ACQDJON200612111708DOWJONESDJONLINE000707.htm&selected=9999&selecteddisplaysymbol=9999&StoryTargetFrame=_top&mkt=WORLD&chk=unchecked&lang=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.na

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) -- Existing-home sales should perk up in late 2007, but new-home sales will continue their slide next year, the National Association of Realtors predicted Monday.

By the fourth quarter of 2007, existing-home sales will be 4.6% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2006, predicted David Lereah, the group's chief economist. That forecast rise in sales applies to the fourth quarters of the two years, not to full year-over-year figures.

In 2007, existing-home sales will reach an annual total of 6.40 million, 1% lower than the 6.47 million projected to be sold in 2006, according to the association.

At the same time, more air is expected to come out of the new-home-sales bubble, the group said. Sales of new homes are expected to drop 9.4% from their 2006 level, to 957,000, the Realtors predicted.

Meanwhile, home prices will make modest gains in the year ahead, the group said.

For 2006, the national median existing-home price is projected to rise 1.4% to $222,600. In 2007, it's expected to rise another 1%, to $224,700, the Realtors said. That compares with gains of nearly 14% in 2005 and almost 12% in 2004.

The median price of a new home should fall 0.5% in 2006, to $239,700, then rise by 0.8% next year to $241,700.

In 2005, according to the National Association of Home Builders, new-home prices rose 9%. In 2004 prices rose 13.3%, while in 2003 they rose 3.9%.

"Most of the correction in home prices is behind us," Lereah said in a statement Monday, "but general gains in value next year will be modest by historical standards."

/.

[ozymandius]

33. Here's how it ended.

Dow 12,328.48 Up 20.99 (0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,442.86 Up 5.50 (0.23%)
S&P 500 1,413.04 Up 3.20 (0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.52% Down 0.032
NYSE Volume 2,289,900,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,898,613,000

4:20 pm : The major averages picked up where they left off Friday, trading higher, as possible deal making and key sector leadership helped investors kick off what is expected to be this month's busiest week of earnings and economic data. However, market gains were modest at best as participants prepared to turn their focus to Tuesday's closely-watched FOMC meeting.

While it is a foregone conclusion policy makers will leave rates unchanged for a fourth straight time tomorrow afternoon, uncertainty as to the wording of the policy directive and whether it will reveal any clues pertaining to the timing of an eventual cut in interest rates acted as a bit of an overhang.

Helping the bulls temporarily shrug off early Fed-related nervousness and extend Friday's gains was follow-through buying in Friday's best performing Dow component -- Citigroup (C 52.83 +0.98). After surging 2.3% amid speculation of a management change and a possible break-up, the bellwether bank hit a new 2 1/2-year high after tacking on another 1.9% to pace the way higher on the price-weighted index.

Bank of America (BAC 52.17 +0.51) more than erasing the 1.6% lost a day earlier, an analyst upgrade on JP Morgan Chase (JPM 47.56 +0.80) and a nearly 1.0% gain for fellow Dow component American International Group (AIG 71.00 +0.65), which agreed to buy some Dubai port operations, provided additional sector support.

Other potential deals providing a vote of confidence about future growth included reports that Sabre Holdings (TSG 30.44 +2.12) is on the auction block and that Smith & Nephew (SNN 48.32 +0.75) is close to bidding about $11 bln for Biomet (BMET 41.56 +1.66).

Telecom was the day's other big gainer, extending its year-to-date gain to more than 30% after the FCC's top lawyer authorized a commission member to vote on the proposed multi-billion dollar AT&T (T 35.23 +0.26) and BellSouth (BLS 46.23 +0.37) deal. DJ30 +20.99 NASDAQ +5.50 SP500 +3.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1493/1556/1.83 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1346/1936/1.25 bln