CIA exercise reveals consequences of defeat

[sabra]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20061221-122441-5208r.htm

CIA exercise reveals consequences of defeat

The CIA this month conducted a simulation of how the Iraq war affects the global jihadist movement, and one conclusion was that a U.S. loss would embolden al Qaeda to expand its ranks of terrorists as well as pick new strategic targets, according to sources familiar with the two-day exercise.

CIA spokesman Mark Mansfield confirmed to The Washington Times yesterday that the simulation took place in Northern Virginia. He declined to discuss its findings, saying that a final report is not finished and that the report will not be the intelligence community's official view. It will, however, be circulated within the community and possibly to U.S. policy-makers.

The exercise involved 75 CIA analysts and outside specialists. It was conducted by the CIA's Office of Terrorism Analysis, within the agency's Counterterrorism Center.
A source familiar with the simulation said it was a "red team" exercise in which participants played the role of global jihadists and war-gamed how the U.S. involvement in Iraq will influence their terror movement.

Although it takes no policy positions, the simulation's key finding appears to bolster Mr. Bush's contention that a U.S. loss in Iraq will have far-reaching ramifications.

[Norquist Nemesis]

1. Merry Christmas and

BOO!

[pinerow]

2. I believe it's called

"circular logic" or "self-fulfilling prophesy"...:wtf:

[rodeodance]

3. Bush Policies drew them into Iraq and now He is using it as an excuse

to stay.

[Shipwack]

4. Pfffffft. Thought experiments conducted by those chosen to give the "correct results"

I wonder how many of the "Red Team" spoke Arabic, or had actually lived in the region... Or more significantly, were Rumsfeld's and Cheney's handpicked men.

[Ezlivin]

17. Ding, ding! "We did this despite having no knowledge of Arabic or the culture."

This is what happens when you let white men work alone in a private room.

I don't really care to hear anything more from The Ministry of Truth.

[librechik]

5. gee, I wonder what the ramifications of NOT attacking Iraq in the first place would be

THEY NEVER ATTACKED US>

OUR MISTAKE WAS ATTACKING THEM WITHOUT PROVOCATION>

ANYTHING WE DO FROM THAT MOMENT ON WAS DOOMED TO FAIL OR WORSE!

[cdeca2005]

6. BS ALERT, BS ALERT,......WHOOP, WHOOP

And please define the term "loss" and for that matter explain what "victory" means as it relates to Iraq.

[Maeve]

11. Bushies decide, they don't define eom

[0rganism]

22. loss = anything that emboldens Al Qaeda

emboldens Al Qaeda = loosens bush buddies' control of international oil markets

[DavidDvorkin]

7. Ah! A Domino Effect!

Where have I heard that before?

[ProfessorGAC]

8. First Of All, ". . .told the Washington Times."

That's all the capsule summary i really need.

But, on top of that, they exclude the simplest causative link: If we hadn't gone in the first place, there would have been nothing to "embolden al Qaeda". So, instead of worrying about the consequences of not winning, perhaps this reports should be indictment of the whole idea and how we are contributing to the development and growth of al Qaeda.

But, if that were the story, the Washington Times wouldn't have run in front page.
The Professor

[Viva_La_Revolution]

9. well, they better prepare for it because

we've already lost.

[EST]

10. If it shows up in the Washington Times, instead of a real

newspaper, it is, by definition, automatically suspect; they couldn't get it published anywhere else.

The reason major media is losing the public is not directly attributable to the internet or to rising illiteracy; it's because those outlets cannot tell the truth.

The media types gather and whine about how bad it's getting, yet pretend and claim that they are not the problem and that the reason people are getting poorer and poorer is because of lack of education rather than the real problem of overwhelming greed.

Unless the source is willing to name their sources so we can evaluate them, their word is no good.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

12. Doesn't this scenario assume we...

continue to be simply confrontational toward terrorism and never address the core reasons for movements like al qaeda existing and doing what they do in the first place?

[gratuitous]

15. The only tool they can use is a hammer

Every problem looks like a nail.

[MrPrax]

13. 75 of them...?

It took 75 CIA Middle East experts to discover that American imperial expansion would be actively opposed by people in the target Middle East countries?

Brilliant insight!

[Buck Rabbit]

19. Well Playstation 3 is kind of complicated for us old folks.

And it's hard to aim with a joystick and some of them have sore wrists so 75 was about right.

[YankeyMCC]

14. False choice in their definition of defeat

They calling 'defeat' a 'retreat'.

Removing all or most combat troops may be called a military retreat, but that doesn't mean we have to 'retreat' from all engagement with Iraq. We should reduce and remove combat troops as quickly as possible, but we should help the Iraqi people clean up the mess we made through economic and diplomatic support.

This exercise focuses on only a very narrow view.

[FreeStateDemocrat]

16. The "Domino Effect," 2006 version. Echo of Viet Nam policy decisions.

[Zenlitened]

18. Um, shouldn't this report be written in the past tense?

... one conclusion was that a U.S. loss would embolden al Qaeda to expand its ranks of terrorists as well as pick new strategic targets...

The jihadists have been gloating over America's humiliation for quite some time now, and recruiting like mad. They know perfectly well that the Republican party -- with Bush as its figurehead and the neocons pulling the strings -- have thrown away our status as "world's only superpower." Flushed it right down the drain. It's the American people, those who've been sleepwalking for so many years, who are just now waking up to this awful fact.

As for picking new strategic targets... done. Past tense. Bali, Madrid, London... Who've I left out?

:grr:

"Mission Accomplished," Republi-con monsters. Half the people in this administration should be tried and sentenced to hang, quite literally. The other half should be thrown in a cell and left to rot.

:grr:

[Supersedeas]

20. the disinformation propoganda wing of the CIA in full throttle

[damntexdem]

21. They're always messing up their verb tenses --

it should read: "U.S. loss HAS emboldened al Qaeda."