STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday May 11

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

Friday May 11, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 619 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2322 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2032 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1992
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 9
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 10, 2007

Dow... 13,215.13 -147.74 (-1.11%)
Nasdaq... 2,533.74 -42.60 (-1.65%)
S&P 500... 1,491.47 -21.11 (-1.40%)
Gold future... 667.00 -15.50 (-2.32%)
30-Year Bond 4.83% -0.01 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.65% -0.02 (-0.43%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

more Radical Fringe


Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

Market Sees Consumer Weakness in Some Big Ticket Items
BY MARTIN GOLDBERG, CMT

The long term charts are indicating continued strength is most consumer stocks. However, if the US consumer is weakening, this weakness may be starting to show in the long term stock charts of big ticket consumer stocks. For most retailers, however, it appears that the stock market is not seeing an end in site for the US spending spree.

-lotsa charts-

Today’s Market

As a fundamental gold bull, the following has been a concern for the last month or so and so far nothing has changed. The concern is that gold has been tracking stocks, and with the stock market vulnerable due to its overbought condition, gold would be similarly vulnerable. Below is the 8-month daily chart of stocks, as represented by the Wilshire 5000 (right scale) overlaid on the performance of gold (left scale). As you can see, they are tracing practically the same price action. If stocks are correcting (and there was some indication of this in today’s distribution day action to suggest that they are), it is likely that gold will also correct. This correction in gold is clearly well underway as discussed below.

-another chart-

Now being a worry wart, I have another gloom and doom scenario to propose. (Not yet confirmed in charts.) The “fact” that almost everyone “knows,” bulls and bears alike, is that the world is “awash in liquidity.” This “truth” may indeed be as such, but if this were a trade, it surely would have practically everyone on the same side of it. I don’t know anyone involved in the financial markets who would not say “true” to the statement “the world is awash in liquidity.” If you do a Google search for the quotation, “awash in liquidity,” you will find a total of 10,200 “hits,” with practically all of these related to the financial markets. So why if I may ask, has gold hit a 7-week low today? I would humbly suggest that if this “liquidity” was drying up, then it would show in the price of gold which has been correcting for the last 7 weeks – well before the latest Bernanke Fed-speak of yesterday. By the way, how fast does liquidity dry up? Pretty fast? At the blink of an eye? With a loss of confidence, instantaneously perhaps?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Roland99]

8. Odds on "bargain hunting" in stocks after the drop yesterday?

;)

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Retail Sales Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.7%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.8%

8:30 AM PPI Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.6%
Prior 1.0%

8:30 AM Core PPI Apr
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.0%

10:00 AM Business Inventories Mar
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.3%

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

10. 8:30 reports:

18. U.S. April PPI car prices fall 1%
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 53 minutes ago

20. U.S. April retail sales ex-auto, gas lowest since June '05
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 53 minutes ago

21. U.S. April crude goods PPI falls 1.5%
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

22. U.S. April retail sales ex-auto and ex-gas down 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

23. U.S. April core intermediate PPI up 0.8%, most in a year
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

24. U.S. April retail sales ex-gasoline down 0.4%
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

25. U.S. PPI energy prices up 3.4%, food prices up 0.4%
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

26. U.S. March retail sales revised to up 1.0% vs 0.7 prev
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

27. U.S. PPI up 3.2% in the past year; core PPI up 1.5%
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

28. U.S. April retail sales biggest decline since Sept. '06
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

29. U.S. April retail sales ex-autos flat vs up 0.5% expected
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

30. U.S. April core PPI flat vs. 0.2% gain expected
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

31. U.S. April retail sales down 0.2% vs up 0.3% expected
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

32. U.S. April PPI up 0.7% vs. 0.5% expected
8:30 AM ET, May 11, 2007 - 55 minutes ago

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices climb on IEA supply worries

LONDON - Oil prices rose Friday after a report from the IEA raised concerns about the market's ability to meet an expected jump in demand for oil products.

The International Energy Agency said Friday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries needs to raise output soon and raised concern over the ability of refiners and OPEC's willingness to meet a 1.6 million barrels a day jump in oil product demand in June.

Suggestions by OPEC officials that there is no need to boost its production levels "appear wide of the mark" the agency said.

"Steady output at current levels would lead (OPEC) undershooting our calculated range for the call on its crude, and thus tightening stocks further," the IEA said.

Light, sweet crude for June delivery rose 35 cents to $62.16 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. On London's ICE Futures exchange, June Brent crude rose 61 cents to $66.40 a barrel.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. IEA says Iran gasoline rationing is a clever move

LONDON (Reuters) - Iran's plans to ration gasoline and increase the price should help curb imports and raise fuel efficiency but may provoke considerable domestic opposition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday.

Iran imports 40 percent of its gasoline needs, making the Islamic republic vulnerable to trade sanctions in its dispute with the United Nations over its nuclear programme.

The government has put forward plans to ration gasoline and raise the price, currently among the lowest in the world, from May 22. Iran is the world's fourth largest crude exporter but a lack of refining capacity has made it dependent on gasoline imports.

"The new rationing plan should be seen as a clever move towards gradually adopting market prices, encouraging greater fuel efficiency and curbing demand," the IEA, which advises 26 industrialized nations, said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070511/wl_nm/energy_iea_iran_dc_1

[AnneD]

5. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. Wonder what the day will bring. Some folks got caught with their hand in the cookie jar yesterday. Wonder what the day will bring? Wonder how they will spin it. Or more importantly, will investors buy the spin.

Today will be a busy day here. It is Art Day. We are celebrating the French Impressionist so our sidewalks will be festooned with our children's chalk homages to the French Impressionist Master. Folks from the art car group will drive their wonderful cars by. The Grand Marshall for the Art Car Parade will be George Clinton. No, he is not related to Bill (at least I don't think so). He is the fountain head for a whole generation of musicians. He was behind Parliament and the Funkadelics in the late 70's and early 80's. I was/still am crazy about his music. He's like Frank Zappa with a funky twist. Check it out sometime-with your Flashlight. :)

Have a great funkalicious day at the casinos and as always...

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[AnneD]

6. just a lagniappe (something extra-Cajun French) for you....

Here is the website for the Art Car Parade and Orange Show-celebrating Houston's Colourful folks art traditions.


http://www.orangeshow.org/artcar.html



Nice photo of George too!

[Roland99]

9. ooo... have fun!!

Saw a concert of George Clinton on HDNet (I think) some months back. Was a rockin' show!

[AnneD]

12. Did you see...

One of the cars 'Atomic Dog, One Nation Under Groove' by Waltrip High won the Mayor's Cup- thus George's visit. He blends in well, musically, artistically, and socially.

[Roland99]

13. That's a cool name and beats the saying on a bumper sticker I saw today ...

"God Bless W" (where the "W" looked like an American flag).

And, of course, this was on the back window of a Ford Exhibition.

[ozymandius]

7. G'morning Marketeers.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

After getting a late start due to DU's problems - I must run after so few posts. I'll be back soon however. Work is at home today.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 82.238 Change -0.020 (-0.02%)

Is The Dollar's Fledgling Rally In Jeopardy From A Retail Sales Surprise?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/cross_markets_data_reaction/Is_The_Dollar_s_Fledgling_Rally_1178836123225.html

Advance Retail Sales (APR) (12:30 GMT)
PPI (YoY) (APR) (12:30 GMT)

Expected: 0.4%
Expected: 3.1%

Previous: 0.7%
Previous: 3.2%



How Will The Markets React?

Though treasuries didn’t join in, the dollar and US equities had one of their most active days in recent history. As was explained in detail in the Dollar Daily report (http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_news/Dollar_Finds_A_Kind_Word_1178821235671.html), there was a smattering of US economic data interspersed with a few key words from a couple notable figures from Capital Hill. Starting off with the morning’s data mixture, we get a clear sense of what sent investors in the stock market scrambling to unload their shares. The March trade account printed a $63.9 billion the widest shortfall in six months. Some of this sentiment was offset initial jobless claims to a four-month low; but the real rally point for bulls were bullish comments from Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and President George W Bush. Paulson didn’t say anything novel with his affirmation that “a strong dollar is in the nation’s interest.” More unusual was President Bush’s promise that his administration would lower trade barriers in order to attract foreign investment into the US – certainly a welcome policy point. Now that volatility has been raised, traders are left to wonder whether it will last. Considering tomorrow’s economic calendar will bring one of the top market moving indicators, it may – if for only one more day. The Commerce Department is expected to report a 0.4 percent rise in retail sales for the month of April. While this consensus is already reduced from the previous period’s pace, it may still be too generous. Recent data has certainly led market participants to revise their ‘unofficial’ estimates well below economists’ predictions. The adjustments began on Tuesday with the Redbook report. Considered the Fed’s retail sales report, the indicator reported a considerable 4.1 percent drop. Today, the skepticism only deepened. More than a few blue chip firms announced monthly sales numbers that missed expectations. What’s more, the ICSC Chain Store Sales report printed its biggest drop on records going back to 23-years. Considering the dour outlook all of this has produced though, a good number could trigger rallies.

...more...

Dollar ; Retail Trade will Set Its Fate

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Dollar___Retail_Trade_will_1178879408319.html

Dollar ; Retail Trade will Set Its Fate

After a day of dollar strength the currency market spend the night in quiet consolidation as traders awaited US Retail Sales data due 12:30 GMT. Market players expect the number to rise 0.4% on a month over month basis, but preliminary reports indicate that sales could be significantly weaker than anticipated as a slew of retailers from Wal-Mart to Banana Republic all reported big declines in their monthly same store sales.

Although some analysts blame April’s poor performance on early Easter holidays, change in the daylight savings time and unusually cold weather across much of the country, if the Retail Sales number does indeed miss the estimates it could be a far more troubling symptom of slowdown in overall US consumer demand. As many dollar bears have long argued, the decline in housing values may be finally impacting discretionary spending with consumers unable to access additional cash flow from mortgage equity withdrawals. The price of gasoline, which on a national average has broken above the psychologically important $3.00 level, is also tempering growth with drivers now forced to spend additional income on transportation. Ironically enough, the increase in gasoline prices could actually improve the headline number, but the market will almost certainly focus on the retail-ex gasoline figures to get a more accurate reading of underlying demand.

On the other hand, should the Retail Sales print in line, dollar bulls may get a major boost. As we’ve argued over the past week, with the EURUSD grossly overbought, the market would need to see recessionary-like data out of the US in order to drive the dollar lower. If Retail Sales maintains pace, the rebound in the greenback could easily continue, as the doomsday scenarios of the bears would not materialize.

In the meantime, yen finally saw strength with USDJPY temporarily trading down to 119.50 in early London trade as some risk aversion crept back into the market. Yesterday’s drop in the Dow and today declines in all the Asia-Pac bourses curbed the appetite for further carry trades. With the Shanghai index now trading above 4000 with a P/E ratio in excess of 40 the possibility of much more severe correction remains quite high. Anecdotal stories our China of people borrowing on their houses to speculate in stocks, as well as news reports that Chinese investors opened more accounts in April than in all of the month’s prior combined, suggests a market clearly out of control. A second decline in the Shanghai stock market is likely to be much sharper and more damaging than the initial sell off in early March and will take down global equity indexes and USDJPY along with it.

...more...

[Roland99]

14. 10:07am - Bulls are back in town

DJIA 13,248.28 +33.15 +0.25%
Nasdaq 2,540.29 +6.55 +0.26%
S&P 500 1,495.99 +4.52 +0.30%
Dow Util 523.18 +0.87 +0.17%
NYSE 9,714.86 +45.49 +0.47%
AMEX 2,218.50 +1.17 +0.05%
Russell 2000 822.57 +3.94 +0.48%
Semcond 502.57 +3.67 +0.74%
Gold future 671.00 +4.00 +0.60%
30-Year Bond 4.81% -0.02 -0.43%
10-Year Bond 4.62% -0.03 -0.60%

ADV leading DEC handily.

It's Pony Friday!!

[Roland99]

15. 10:45am - All in!

DJIA 13,289.16 +74.03 +0.56%
Nasdaq 2,546.65 +12.91 +0.51%
S&P 500 1,499.90 +8.43 +0.57%
Dow Util 524.39 +2.08 +0.40%
NYSE 9,748.97 +79.60 +0.82%
AMEX 2,224.79 +7.46 +0.34%
Russell 2000 824.81 +6.18 +0.75%
Semcond 501.31 +2.41 +0.48%
Gold future 670.50 +3.50 +0.52%
30-Year Bond 4.81% -0.02 -0.43%
10-Year Bond 4.62% -0.03 -0.56%

[MattSh]

16. TELL US SWEET LITTLE LIES - by James Howard Kunstler

Whenever somebody complains about "the lies that George Bush & Co. told to get us into the Iraq war" (as Frank Rich did in The New York Times recently), I wonder how those lies compare to the lies that the American public tells itself every day - for example, that we could run America without oil from the Middle East, or that hybrid cars will save Happy Motoring, or that we can have an economy without producing anything of value.

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones index went up over a hundred points the same day that 32 people were massacred on a university campus. And bear in mind that the massacre did not occur late in the day but literally around the same time that the New York Stock Exchange rang its opening bell - so that as the body counts mounted through mid-day, the stock markets only went higher! Then, the rest of the week, while the cable news Mommy-Daddies went through the familiar rituals of bewildered hand-wringing, and NBC released the trove of farewell videos sent in by shooter Seung-Hui Cho between killings, the Dow piled on another 250 points to close at an all-time record high just under 13,000.

Could the financial markets be more detached from reality, from life on the ground (or in a free-fire-zone classroom) in this nation?

<and>

The markets have been on an extraordinary spring run. The Dow finished 23 out of the last 26 days on the upside - some of them pretty way on the upside. This is the biggest U.S. stock market up-streak since a 19 for 21 streak in July of 1929, prior to the October crash. Bill Fleckenstein points out a similar run on the Tokyo exchange - 32 upside trading days out of 38 - just prior to its 1989 tanking.


From http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Issues/2007/DR050907.html <scroll down>

[Roland99]

17. Time for some Fleetwood Mac!!!

If I could turn the page
In time then I'd rearrange just a day or two
Close my, close my, close my eyes

But I couldn't find a way
So I'll settle for one day to believe in you
Tell me, tell me, tell me lies

Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies
(Tell me lies, tell me, tell me lies)
Oh, no, no you can't disguise
(You can't disguise, no you can't disguise)
Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies

Although I'm not making plans
I hope that you understand there's a reason why
Close your, close your, close your eyes

No more broken hearts
We're better off apart let's give it a try
Tell me, tell me, tell me lies

Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies
(Tell me lies, tell me, tell me lies)
Oh, no, no you can't disguise
(You can't disguise, no you can't disguise)
Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies

If I could turn the page
In time then I'd rearrange just a day or two
Close my, close my, close my eyes

But I couldn't find a way
So I'll settle for one day to believe in you
Tell me, tell me, tell me lies

Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies
(Tell me lies, tell me, tell me lies)
Oh, no, no you can't disguise
(You can't disguise, no you can't disguise)

Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies
(Tell me lies, tell me, tell me lies)
Oh, no, no you can't disguise
(You can't disguise, no you can't disguise)
Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies
(Tell me, tell me lies)

[Roland99]

18. 3:18pm - Getting better all the ti-ime...

DJIA 13,298.83 +83.70 +0.63%
Nasdaq 2,556.73 +22.99 +0.91%
S&P 500 1,502.71 +11.24 +0.75%
Dow Util 525.85 +3.54 +0.68%
NYSE 9,770.35 +100.98 +1.04%
AMEX 2,238.71 +21.38 +0.96%
Russell 2000 827.03 +8.40 +1.03%
Semcond 503.44 +4.53 +0.91%
Gold future 672.30 +5.30 +0.79%
30-Year Bond 4.85% +0.02 +0.41%
10-Year Bond 4.67% +0.02 +0.47%

[ozymandius]

19. just before the close, I present to you a pony

3:45
Dow 13,311.02 Up 95.89 (0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,560.81 Up 27.07 (1.07%)
S&P 500 1,504.38 Up 12.91 (0.87%)
10-Yr Bond 4.67% Up 0.022
NYSE Volume 2,364,275,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,552,554,000

3:30 pm : The market is showing no signs of slowing going into the close. Every index continues to put together a solid advance, with the Russell 2000 on pace to log the best performance among the more closely watched indices. Increased hopes of a Fed rate cut sometime in the near future have breathed new life into small cap stocks, which have underperformed mid and large stocks this year.

With regard to major averages, today's rally now positions the Dow to finish the week higher; but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are still slightly lower on the week and run the risk of having their five-week winning streaks snapped. DJ30 +98.14 NASDAQ +26.41 NQ100 +1.1% R2K +1.1% SP400 +0.8% SP500 +12.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 610/1790/1.42 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 860/2416/1.08 bln

3:00 pm : With only an hour left to go, buyers remain in complete control of the action. Albeit still off their session highs, today's market gains are impressive nonetheless since yesterday's sell-off worsening into the close had all the makings of follow-through weakness today.

Even crude futures have gotten a second wind, recently closing near the best levels of the day. Crude for June delivery closed up 0.9% at $62.38/bbl, and that has provided an added spark to an Energy sector (+1.9%) that was already outperforming. Chevron (CVX 79.62 +1.43) recently said it is evacuating hundreds of nonessential personnel from offshore Nigeria operations due to security concerns. DJ30 +83.78 NASDAQ +21.89 SP500 +10.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 604/1792/1.29 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 880/2367/988 mln

[AnneD]

20. Goodie Goodie Gumdrops

can we get cake and ice cream too.

[Roland99]

21. Typical liberal. Always wanting something

:P

[AnneD]

22. Hey,

this liberal just want a slice of the cake she helped bake-not the whole thing.:9

[ozymandius]

23. time to nail this coffin lid shut

Dow 13,326.22 Up 111.09 (0.84%)
Nasdaq 2,562.22 Up 28.48 (1.12%)
S&P 500 1,505.85 Up 14.38 (0.96%)
10-Yr Bond 4.67% Up 0.022
NYSE Volume 2,721,636,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,801,769,000

4:20 pm : A day after only four out of 147 S&P industry groups attracted buyers, stocks bounced back in impressive fashion Friday as virtually every industry group caught a bid.

A sense that Thursday's sizable sell-off was overdone provided the initial source of market support. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were down 1.4% on average yesterday but recouped much of those losses today.

With the market's focus shifting away from earnings and back to economic data, today's batch of reports fueling hope that a rate cut might come sooner rather than later also helped the bulls dust themselves off after getting knocked down a day earlier.

Before the bell, the Labor Dept. showed that producer prices eased in April. The closely-watched core rate was unchanged again, pushing the year/year rate to 1.5% and providing evidence that inflation appears to be trending lower. That news was especially good given the Fed's recent reiteration that inflation remains its "predominant" concern.

Also out at 8:30 ET was monthly retail sales. That report also garnered added attention given yesterday's ugly same-store sales reports for April.

At first glance, an unexpected decline of 0.2% in April retail sales and a flat read on sales, ex-autos, echoed concerns about the health of the consumer. However, when combined with the tame inflation read, weak retail sales underscoring further signs of a "moderating" economy (also welcome news for the Fed) left investors buying into the idea that policy makers may have more breathing room to ease rather than tighten.

Bond traders, in contrast, did not subscribe to that notion, as evidenced by selling across the yield curve. Nonetheless, the underlying bullish momentum behind the seven-week rally in equities was too much for sellers to have their voice heard in back-to-back sessions.

All 10 economic sectors finished higher, paced by an Energy sector that erased all of yesterday's 2.0% drubbing without a significant help from oil prices. The more heavily-weighted Technology sector also making Thursday's thumping a memory painted an even more convincing recovery effort on the part of buyers. BTK +1.1% DJ30 +111.09 DJTA +0.9% DJUA +0.8% DOT +1.0% NASDAQ +28.36 NQ100 +1.3% R2K +1.3% SOX +1.2% SP400 +0.9% SP500 +14.38 XOI +1.9% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 495/1916/1.73 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 754/2541/1.30 bln

[Roland99]

24. "Thursday's sizable sell-off was overdone" - There ya go!

There's your bargain rhetoric!!