STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday May 16

[Ghost Dog]

Source: DU

Wednesday 16 May, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 614 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2327 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2037 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1997
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 9
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January
22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 15, 2007

Dow... 13,383.84 37.06 (0.28%)
Nasdaq... 2,525.29 -21.15 (-0.83%)
S&P 500... 1,501.19 1.96 (0.13%)
30-Year Bond 4.88% -0.00 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.71% UNCH UNCH
Gold future... 670.00 -4.50 -0.67%







GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars
and Loonie>

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details
& links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more,
are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens
For Legitimate Government>

---

http://imgred.com/


Read more: DU

[Ghost Dog]

1. (Thought I'd better get this up, today, anyhow).

So, relax Ozy and all. Markets never close. :hangover:

[Roland99]

5. Thanks, Ghost Dog!!

I was considering creating one but then work intervened (imagine that! ;) )

[Ghost Dog]

6. I should be outta here for a while now already. Lookathat.

OT (or maybe not): Hope everyones seen this: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x884545#893593

[Ghost Dog]

2. Market Wrapup: A Little Bit of This, A Little Bit of That...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

It has now been more than 6 years since the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its ARIMA Birth-Death Model into the compilation of monthly payroll data. Using their own description we note that the model has two components which are used to ‘estimate’ or “impute” activity. From the BLS website, we note that:

* Earlier research indicated that while both the business birth and death portions of total employment are generally significant, the net contribution is relatively small and stable. To account for this net birth/death portion of total employment, BLS is implementing an estimation procedure with two components: the first component uses business deaths to impute employment for business births. This is incorporated into the sample-based link relative estimate procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other firms in the sample.

* The second component is an ARIMA time series model designed to estimate the residual net birth/death employment not accounted for by the imputation. The historical time series used to create and test the ARIMA model was derived from the UI universe micro level database, and reflects the actual residual net of births and deaths over the past five years. The ARIMA model component is updated and reviewed on a quarterly basis.

* The net birth/death model component figures are unique to each month and exhibit a seasonal pattern that can result in negative adjustments in some months. These models do not attempt to correct for any other potential error sources in the CES estimates such as sampling error or design limitations.

Of particular interest is the last bullet point which alludes to the “seasonal” pattern that appears in the data. Well, to say that there is a “seasonal pattern’ in the data is really putting it mildly. In the table below, I show the monthly additions and substractions that the model has generated since inception. Note the huge positive affect seen every April and May, wherein the average additional ‘jobs added’ total +174K, and +165K over the last few years. The annual downward revision of jobs lost is always updated in January, which except for July, tends to be the only month where jobs are lost in any size. Why does this matter? Well, take a look at last month’s data point, where the Birth-Death Model kicked out a gain of 317,000 jobs for the month of April. The actual report gain from BLS was a much smaller than expected uptick of +88,000 jobs, BUT, that 88,000 gain includes the Birth-Death gain of 317,000, which ex-the Birth–Death gain means we really saw the economy shedding jobs on the order of a hefty loss of –229,000. Even if we assume that part of the Birth-Death Model gains were valid, say for example, 100,000 of the 317,000 jobs, we are still looking at job losses greater then 100,000 for the month. In my view, this is proof positive that the economy is slowing and that employment in coming months will follow the weak Retail Sales and GDP numbers to the downside.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

3. Asian Stocks Advance on TDK, Astellas, Macquarie Bank Earnings

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a3U7011hkYyE&refer=asia

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose after TDK Corp., Astellas Pharma Inc. and Macquarie Bank Ltd. reported earnings that beat estimates.

Expectations that economic and profit growth in Asia will exceed the rest of the world has helped the Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index outpace its global equivalent in four out of the past five years.

``In the case of Asia, whether it is China, India or Japan, earnings should drive markets,'' said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC, a unit of Prudential Financial Inc., which oversees $616 billion. ``We still have about 5 to 6 percent earnings growth in the developed markets and much stronger earnings in Asia.''

Samsung Heavy Industries Co. climbed after announcing a $772 million ship order. Compal Communications Inc. gained on speculation it may receive mobile-phone orders from Nokia Oyj.

MSCI's Asia-Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 148.61 at 5:14 p.m. in Tokyo. China CSI 300 Index jumped 2.7 percent, the region's biggest rise, as low deposit rates encouraged investors to buy stocks. Only benchmarks in Pakistan and Sri Lanka fell.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 Average advanced 0.1 percent while the broader Topix index was little changed. Kajima Corp., the country's biggest builder, plunged the most in nine years after the company forecast lower earnings.

U.S. stocks fell yesterday after profit at Home Depot Inc. dropped more than forecast, housing prices tumbled and foreclosures rose, heightening concern the real-estate slump may worsen. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 0.1 percent.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

4. China Industrial Output Rises 17.4 Percent on Exports

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aI6zgeUWiRik&refer=asia

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- China's expansion of industrial production held above 17 percent for a second month, adding to pressure on the government to raise interest rates to cool investment in the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Output rose 17.4 percent in April after climbing 17.6 percent in March, the statistics bureau said today. That was close to the 17.5 percent median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Premier Wen Jiabao today expressed concern at ``excessive liquidity'' as cash from an export boom threatens to spur a stock market bubble and overcapacity in manufacturing. A sudden slowdown in an economy that expanded 11.1 percent in the first quarter may lead to idle factories, unemployment and bad loans.

``Strong industrial production figures may suggest that fixed-asset investment is picking up and that's not what the government wants,'' said Glenn Maguire, chief Asia economist at Societe Generale SA in Hong Kong. ``We can expect another interest rate increase and more bank reserve ratio hikes if investment takes off again.''

Fixed-asset investment in urban areas probably jumped 25.3 percent in the first four months from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The government will release figures at 10 a.m. tomorrow.

Spending on factories and property rose 29.6 percent in the first four months of last year. It slowed to 24.5 percent for 2006 as a whole.

Faster Than India

Industrial production growth has accelerated this year after cooling in the final quarter of 2006, falling to a two- year low of 14.7 percent in October. For the first four months, output rose 18 percent from a year earlier. Growth for all of 2006 was 16.6 percent.

In India, the world's second fastest-growing major economy, production increased 12.9 percent in March.

China is trying to cool lending and investment as exports flood the economy with cash.

The People's Bank of China has raised interest rates three times since April last year, ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves and sold bills to soak up cash. The benchmark one-year lending rate is 6.39 percent.

The central bank retains a ``tightening bias,'' said Huang Yiping, chief Asia economist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong.

Environmental Curbs

China has also curbed land use, cut export rebates and imposed environmental restrictions on development. Premier Wen will lead a task force to cut energy consumption and emissions. The government this week said it ordered 11 companies along the northeastern Songhua River to stop production because of pollution violations.

Exports jumped 26.8 percent in April, accelerating from the previous month, as the trade surplus swelled 63 percent from a year earlier to $16.9 billion. Banks extended 1.8 trillion yuan of new loans in the first four months, more than half the total for all last year.

A surging stock market is boosting consumption and swelling companies' investment coffers. Retail sales climbed 15.5 percent in April, the biggest increase since May 2004 after eliminating seasonal distortions.

The benchmark CSI 300 Index of shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen is up 78 percent this year, prompting government cautions that a bubble may be forming. A 9 percent plunge on Feb. 27 helped trigger a global stock rout.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

7. European Stocks Decline, Led by Roche, SAP, Credit Agricole

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=arSJLY9pn270&refer=europe

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks declined before economic reports in the U.S. that may add to evidence growth in the world's biggest economy is slowing.

Roche Holding AG and SAP AG led a drop by companies most dependent on the U.S. for sales. Credit Agricole SA fell after earnings at France's second-biggest bank missed analysts' estimates. Air France-KLM Group and Deutsche Lufthansa AG paced a drop in airlines as oil traded near a one-week high.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index has retreated from the 6 1/2 year high reached last week as concerns heighten a slowing U.S. economy will reduce demand for European exports. A report will probably show today that builders in the U.S. began work on fewer new homes in April, a sign the housing slump may not ease soon.

``Concern about U.S. demand might be a reason for short-term profit taking,'' said Carsten Klude, who helps manage $20 billion as head of investment strategies at M.M. Warburg & Co. in Hamburg. ``Investors are torn between growth concerns and hopes for a quick interest rate cut.''

The Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.3 percent to 388.91 as of 8:36 a.m. in London. The Stoxx 50 and the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 13 nations sharing the euro, both dropped 0.4 percent.

Most U.S. stocks fell yesterday after Home Depot Inc.'s profit dropped more than forecast, housing prices tumbled and foreclosures rose, heightening concern the real-estate slump may worsen. Japanese stocks paced a decline in Asia on concern earnings growth at the country's builders will weaken.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

28. European Stocks Decline, Led by Credit Agricole and Air France

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=a38XEhFasviI&refer=stocks

May 16 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks declined, pushed lower by banks and airlines, after earnings at Credit Agricole SA missed analysts' estimates and analysts cut recommendations on Air France-KLM Group and EasyJet Plc.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index has retreated from the 6 1/2 year high reached last week as concern heightened about a slowdown in the U.S., Europe's biggest trading partner. Building permits in the U.S. dropped to the lowest in almost a decade, a government report showed today.

``Concern about U.S. demand'' weighed on markets today, said Carsten Klude, who helps manage $20 billion as head of investment strategies at M.M. Warburg & Co. in Hamburg. ``Investors are torn between growth concerns and hopes for an interest rate cut.''

The Stoxx 600 Index fell 0.2 percent to 389.47 at the close in London, as 310 stocks dropped and 260 gained. The Stoxx 50 dropped 0.4 percent, as did the Euro Stoxx 50, a measure for the 13 nations sharing the euro.

Rio Tinto Group limited losses on speculation rising prices for metals will boost earnings at mining companies.

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world's biggest luxury carmaker; HSBC Holdings Plc, the region's largest bank by market value, and Statoil ASA, Norway's No.1 oil company, are among companies that weighed on indexes today as they traded without the right to a dividend.

National benchmarks fell in 10 of 18 markets in western Europe. France's CAC 40 dropped 0.5 percent, Germany's DAX shed 0.4 percent, while the U.K.'s FTSE 100 declined 0.2 percent.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

8. Today's Reports

May 16 8:30 AM Housing Starts Apr
Actual 1528K
Briefing 1480K
Market Expected 1480K
Prior 1491K
Revised From 1518K

May 16 8:30 AM Building Permits Apr
Actual 1429K
Briefing 1525K
Market Expected 1520K
Prior 1569K
Revised From 1564K

May 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Apr
Actual -
Briefing NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 81.4%

May 16 9:15 AM Industrial Production Apr
Actual 0.7%
Briefing 0.2%
Market Expected 0.3%
Prior -0.3%
Revised From -0.2%

May 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Apr
Actual -
Briefing 81.4%
Market Expects 81.5%
Prior 81.4%

May 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/11
Actual -
Briefing NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 5511K

[Ghost Dog]

9. U.S. April industrial output jumps 0.7 pct

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2007-05-16T132824Z_01_N16190976_RTRIDST_0_USA-ECONOMY-OUTPUT-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, May 16 (Reuters) - U.S. industrial production jumped a bigger-than-expected 0.7 percent in April on gains in utilities, auto and high-tech manufacturing output, a Federal Reserve report showed on Wednesday.

Capacity utilization at the nation's factories, mines and utilities was a slightly greater-than-expected 81.6 percent as manufacturing capacity use picked up.

Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting production to rise 0.3 percent and capacity use to rise to 81.5 percent.

Manufacturing output rose 0.5 percent in April, boosted by a 3.3 percent rise in motor vehicle and parts production and a 2.0 percent gain in computer and electronic product output, the Fed said.

Output at utilities gained 3.5 percent in a cooler-than-usual April, partly reversing a revised 7.5 percent drop in production at utilities the previous month, when it was unseasonably warm.

...

Industrial production in the first quarter was revised lower to a 0.9 percent annual rate of increase after a 1.5 percent drop in the last three months of 2006.

Production of consumer durables advanced 2.1 percent in April, an acceleration from an 0.3 percent rise in March. Apart from auto products, the output of home electronics rose 4.8 percent on gains in computers produced for households and in audio and video equipment, the Fed said.

Overall capacity utilization -- a measure of how close to full capacity factories, mines and utilities are running -- remains above its 1972-2006 average of 81 percent, the Fed said.

[UpInArms]

12. today's reports:

13. U.S. March industrial output down rev 0.3% vs 0.2% prev est
9:15 AM ET, May 16, 2007 - 1 hour ago

14. U.S. April capacity utilization up to 81.6% vs 81.2% March
9:15 AM ET, May 16, 2007 - 1 hour ago

15. U.S. April industrial production up 0.7% vs 0.4% estimate
9:15 AM ET, May 16, 2007 - 1 hour ago

28. U.S. housing starts down 16% year-on-year
8:30 AM ET, May 16, 2007 - 1 hour ago

29. U.S. building permits down 28% year-on-year
8:30 AM ET, May 16, 2007 - 1 hour ago

30. Drop in April building permits largest in 17 years
8:30 AM ET, May 16, 2007 - 1 hour ago

31. U.S. April building permits fall 8.9% to 1.43M, 10-year low
8:30 AM ET, May 16, 2007 - 1 hour ago

32. U.S. housing starts rise 2.5% to 1.53M, vs. 1.48M expected
8:30 AM ET, May 16, 2007 - 1 hour ago

(sorry to be so scarce - but must post and run again :( :hi: )

[Ghost Dog]

21. Crude Inventories Fall

May 16 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Apr
Actal 81.6%
Briefing 81.4%
Market Expected 81.5%
Prior 81.2%
Revised From 81.4%

May 16 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 05/11
Actual 1061K
Briefing NA
Market Expected NA
Prior 5511K

(Damned if I know where UiA gets the data from; this is from http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html )

[Roland99]

29. 4.5mil drop???

[Ghost Dog]

32. Try to find a seperate source, Roland99.

And, what did the Institute of Petroleum Supplies' (or what's it called?) figures say today???

[AnneD]

35. Try this web site

http://www.api.org/


More stats than you can shake a stick at.

[Roland99]

36. Checked the EIA but no update on their site yet.

[Ghost Dog]

10. Toronto stock index opens higher after U.S. data

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=2007-05-16T135340Z_01_N16195067_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-CANADA-STOCKS.XML

TORONTO, May 16 (Reuters) - The Toronto Stock Exchange's main index opened higher on Wednesday, ignoring lower commodity prices, after U.S. data suggested the housing market was stabilizing.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

11. US 10:11

Dow 13,422.76 Up 38.92 (0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,532.44 Up 7.15 (0.28%)
S&P 500 1,506.95 Up 5.76 (0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 4.7100% Down 0.0020
NYSE Volume 448,284,000
Nasdaq Volume 317,702,000

10:00 am : Equities are still on the offensive as nine of 10 economic sectors remain positive. When the most heavily-weighted sector on the S&P 500, Financials (+0.8%), is turning in the day's best performance, it's not surprising to see the market as a whole trading higher.

Even though hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert's disclosed $800 mln stake in Citigroup (C 54.45 +1.66) amounts to only 0.3% of the Citi's outstanding shares, a subsequent 3.1% surge in the Dow component and third most influential constituent on the S&P 500 is having a noticeable impact on the broader market. Other Diversified Financial Services (+1.9%) ranks as today's second best performing S&P industry group. DJ30 +47.86 NASDAQ +10.23 SP500 +6.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 880/1586/170 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 738/1742/66 mln

09:40 am : As expected, stocks bounce back from yesterday's dismal finish as the disclosure of significant investments in some large-cap names from some high-profile, and tremendously successful, investors overshadows mixed housing data. Most notably, blue chips Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 62.50 +0.68), Microsoft (MSFT 31.05 +0.15), and Citigroup (C 54.33 +1.54) are helping to lift the Dow into record territory following large reported stakes from billionaires Warren Buffett, George Soros, and Eddie Lampert, respectively.

Separately, housing starts unexpectedly rose 2.5% in April to 1.528 mln, reflecting some semblance of stabilization. However, building permits, which are a sign of future construction, plunged 8.9% to a 10-year low of 1.429 mln, providing more evidence that the housing sector remains mired in a deep slump.DJ30 +46.08 NASDAQ +10.78 SP500 +7.00 NASDAQ Vol 88 mln NYSE Vol 42 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.3. Stocks still look to open on an upbeat note as investors sift through the day's last scheduled economic report. April Industrial Production rose 0.7% (consensus 0.3%) while Capacity Utilization, a key inflation gauge, rose to 81.6% (consensus 81.5%) from a revised 81.2%.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. The stage remains set for stocks to open on an upbeat note. Berkshire Hathaway nearly doubling its stake in Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Lampert disclosing an $800 mln stake in fellow Dow component Citigroup (C), and Soros more than doubling his investment in another Dow name, Microsoft (MSFT), continue to provide a floor of early support.

All three stocks are also among the most heavily-weighted names on the S&P 500. Fortunately for the bulls, Microsoft's gain is helping to offset another sell-off in Applied Materials (AMAT), which beat analysts' expectations but forecasted flat sales for Q3 and up to a 15% drop in orders.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.8. Early indications still suggest stocks will rebound from yesterday's disappointing finish; but futures are off their recent highs following mixed housing data. Housing starts unexpectedly rose 2.5% in April to 1.528 mln (consensus 1.48 mln). That's the highest level this year and is reflective of more stabilization in housing. However, Building Permits, a sign of future construction, fell 8.9% to a 10-year low of 1.429 mln (consensus 1.52 mln). Bonds have held relatively steady in response; the 10-year note is still up 4 ticks to yield 4.68%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.8. After relinquishing what was initially shaping up to be a decent day of gains, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are trading above fair value and signaling a modest rebound. The disclosure of significant investments in several large-cap names (e.g. C, JNJ, MSFT, NSC, UNP, and WLP) from billionaire investors like Warren Buffett, George Soros, and Eddie Lampert is contributing to the improved sentiment.

The positive disposition, though, is subject to change since upcoming housing data also carry market-moving potential. April Housing Starts and Building Permits will be out 8:30 ET.

[Roland99]

14. 10:44pm - DOW cooling off a tad

DJIA 13,410.74 +26.90 +0.20%
Nasdaq 2,533.01 +7.72 +0.31%
S&P 500 1,506.86 +5.67 +0.38%
Dow Util 531.97 +2.07 +0.39%
NYSE 9,791.25 +26.52 +0.27%
AMEX 2,252.71 +2.32 +0.10%
Russell 2000 814.81 +0.63 +0.08%
Semcond 496.25 -1.83 -0.37%
Gold future 668.50 -6.00 -0.89%
30-Year Bond 4.87% -0.01 -0.27%
10-Year Bond 4.70% -0.01 -0.21%

[Roland99]

13. U.S.'S WEEKLY CRUDE, GASOLINE AND DISTILLATE INVENTORIES RISE

more detail later I suppose.

[hatrack]

15. Did they say how much of each?

Just thought I'd ask . . .

[Roland99]

17. Here's some detail from CNN Money

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/16/markets/oil_eia/index.htm?postversion=2007051610

In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said gasoline stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels last week. Analysts were looking for a rise of 1.1 million barrels, according to Reuters.

Distillates, used to make heating oil and diesel fuel, increased by 1 million barrels while crude supplies rose by 1 million barrels. Analysts were looking for a 1.4-million increase in distillates and a 100,000-barrel gain in crude stocks.

Refineries, closely watched due to their abnormally low rates of operation, ran at 89.5 percent capacity last week, up from 89 percent the week prior, EIA said. Analysts were looking for a bigger increase.

Refineries have suffered a series of operational setbacks over the last several months, contributing to extremely low gasoline supplies just as the nation enters the peak summer driving season *cough*bullshit*cough*.

[hatrack]

20. Thanks!

:hi:

[Ghost Dog]

22. Yes, Thanks Roland99. Crude inventories down, however (see #21)

So, gasoline etc prices expected to fall for the summer season, huh? :crazy:

[Roland99]

25. Here comes the hypocritical rhetoric and justification now...

Gas has been SKYROCKETING while oil prices have moderated. Reasoning being "refinery outages" or "gasoline inventories" or some other non-crude related reason.

Now with crude inventories going down (and the price of oil even going down), that will be yet another reason to gouge us!

[Ghost Dog]

30. Oil edges lower after US gasoline stocks rise more than expected UPDATE

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=100a470b-803d-4407-8e38-82858728d374
Wed, May 16 2007, 15:29 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com

(Updates prices, adds details)

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Oil continued lower after weekly US government data showed a greater than forecast increase in gasoline stocks.

The US Energy Information Administration said earlier gasoline stocks rose 1.7 mln barrels last week to 195.2 mln barrels. Markets were expecting a rise of only 1.1 mln barrels.

Gasoline is in focus at present as the US head into the peak demand summer driving season, when Americans traditionally take to the roads for summer vacations.

The data also showed crude stocks rose 1 mln barrels against an expected 500,000 barrel rise, while distillates climbed by 1 mln barrels, roughly in line with market expectations. <-- Huh? :freak: :shrug:

At 3.58 pm, London Brent crude for June delivery, which expires later today, was down 21 cents at 67.90 usd per barrel. Meanwhile, New York crude for June delivery was down 53 cents at 62.64 usd a barrel.

"The build in gasoline stocks was more than expected, with refinery output up 122,000 bpd and imports up 306,000 bpd at 1.528 mln bpd," said Citigroup analyst Tim Evans.

He added the data promises ongoing supply relief to the US gasoline market, and that the overall builds in crude and distillates also encourage selling.

/...

[Roland99]

16. 11:14am - Faeries! Cold Blue! Patient is hemorraghing!!

DJIA 13,366.45 -17.39 -0.13%
Nasdaq 2,520.48 -4.81 -0.19%
S&P 500 1,502.10 +0.91 +0.06%
Dow Util 531.54 +1.64 +0.31%
NYSE 9,758.86 -5.87 -0.06%
AMEX 2,249.44 -0.95 -0.04%
Russell 2000 811.09 -3.09 -0.38%
Semcond 495.30 -2.78 -0.56%
Gold future 668.40 -6.10 -0.90%
30-Year Bond 4.87% -0.01 -0.23%
10-Year Bond 4.70% -0.01 -0.21%

[TrogL]

18. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.H06&v=s

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-04-13 Friday, April 13 0.878812 USD
2007-04-16 Monday, April 16 0.884251 USD
2007-04-17 Tuesday, April 17 0.885504 USD
2007-04-18 Wednesday, April 18 0.885897 USD
2007-04-19 Thursday, April 19 0.886054 USD
2007-04-20 Friday, April 20 0.89071 USD
2007-04-23 Monday, April 23 0.890869 USD
2007-04-24 Tuesday, April 24 0.890631 USD
2007-04-25 Wednesday, April 25 0.897183 USD
2007-04-26 Thursday, April 26 0.892698 USD
2007-04-27 Friday, April 27 0.8967 USD
2007-04-30 Monday, April 30 0.903506 USD
2007-05-01 Tuesday, May 1 0.901876 USD
2007-05-02 Wednesday, May 2 0.901957 USD
2007-05-03 Thursday, May 3 0.903424 USD
2007-05-04 Friday, May 4 0.903424 USD
2007-05-07 Monday, May 7 0.907112 USD
2007-05-08 Tuesday, May 8 0.905141 USD
2007-05-09 Wednesday, May 9 0.903914 USD
2007-05-10 Thursday, May 10 0.903098 USD
2007-05-11 Friday, May 11 0.897989 USD
2007-05-14 Monday, May 14 0.903587 USD
2007-05-15 Tuesday, May 15 0.911079 USD


The site where I normally get my analysis is down right now. I'll post those when it's back up.

Analysis

The loonie hit a record yearly high last night according to the CBC. They quoted increasing instability in the US markets. Something happened overnight that drove the loonie waaaaay up but it appears to be trying to get back to normal.

[TrogL]

41. Site's up

Current values

Last trade 0.9068 Change
Previous Close 0.9118 Open 0.9103
Low 0.9068 High 0.9103


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The June Canadian dollar closed up 75 points at .9116 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh eight-month high. Bulls still have solid upside technical momentum and gained more power today.

Analysis

Looks like a rebound back to more reasonable levels.

[Ghost Dog]

43. So, I converted some Loonies into Swiss Francs at just the right time (maybe)!

Serious thanks, TrogL. :handshake:

edit: doubleplus kudos to EarlG and Skinner. :thumbsup:

[Roland99]

19. 11:46am - A little pixie dust...

DJIA 13,409.76 +25.92 +0.19%
Nasdaq 2,526.25 +0.96 +0.04%
S&P 500 1,505.74 +4.55 +0.30%
Dow Util 531.87 +1.97 +0.37%
NYSE 9,777.95 +13.22 +0.14%
AMEX 2,253.94 +3.55 +0.16%
Russell 2000 812.60 -1.58 -0.19%
Semcond 493.49 -4.59 -0.92%
Gold future 667.00 -7.50 -1.11%
30-Year Bond 4.88% -0.00 -0.06%
10-Year Bond 4.71% -0.00 -0.04%

[Ghost Dog]

23. Forex - Dollar boosted by strong industrial production, housing starts data

http://orange.advfn.com/news_Forex-Dollar-boosted-by-strong-industrial-production-housing-starts-data_20662531.html

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The dollar firmed as housing starts and
industrial production data came in above expectations.

Figures from the Commerce department showed the number of new homes
beginning construction rose 2.5 pct in April from March to 1.528 mln units, its
highest level for three months. Analysts had been expecting a fall to 1.48 mln
units.

However, housing permits, which give an indication of future housing starts,
plunged 8.9 pct to 1.429 mln units, the sharpest monthly drop since February
1990.

"The dollar has rallied across the board as traders focus on the persistent
strength in housing starts, shrugging off the more forward-looking permits,"
said Ashraf Laidi, currency analyst at CMC Markets.

The greenback was also boosted by strong industrial production figures for
April, which were boosted by cooler US weather during the month.

Industrial production rose 0.7 pct month-on-month, well above analyst
expectations for a 0.2 pct rise, while utility output was up 3.5 pct.

"First-quarter US GDP looks very weak, but so far second-quarter data is
shaping up as above trend," said Jamie Thomson at Thomson's IFR Markets.

Meanwhile, sterling was lower, falling despite a reasonably hawkish Bank of
England inflation report.

The BoE signalled there will be a further quarter-point interest rate
increase in the coming months to 5.75 pct. It also forecast CPI will be around
its 2.0 pct target in two years' time, although the medium-term risks to
inflation are to the upside.

Analysts said the report, while reasonably hawkish, provided little support
for sterling as markets are already expecting a rate rise in the coming months.

"For a market that is virtually fully priced for a hike, this leaves the
market more vulnerable to any dovish signals than any hawkish ones, with
attendant downside risks for the pound," said Daragh Maher, forex strategist at
Calyon.

Relatively benign wage growth data also weighed on the pound: average
earnings in the three months to March were up 4.5 pct year-on-year compared with
expectations for a 4.8 pct increase.

This overshadowed figures showing unemployment fell further than expected in
April, with the claimant count down by 15,700, compared with forecasts for a
5,000 fall.

Elsewhere, the euro was little affected by this morning's inflation data,
which was consistent with the widely-held view interest rates will rise in June
and more rate rises later this year are a possibility.

The euro zone's harmonised index of consumer prices rose a final 1.9 pct
year-on-year in April, revised up from a provisional estimate of a rise of 1.8
pct and the same rate as in March.

/...

edit to add: Watch on Swiss Franc (CHF), Pound Sterling (GBP)

[Ghost Dog]

26. Gold futures drop as much as $8 an ounce

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-drop-much-8/story.aspx?guid=%7BDAB8CD8B%2D2105%2D464A%2DA6CE%2D2111B7E8A66D%7D
U.S. dollar gains against rivals as traders digest U.S. economic data

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures fell as much as $8 an ounce Wednesday, as mixed data on U.S. housing and industrial production set the dollar up to recoup its losses from the previous session, weakening demand for the precious metal.

Gold for June delivery was last down $6.60, or 1%, to $667.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract had climbed $4.40 on Tuesday, moving inversely with weakness in the dollar after data showed that U.S. consumer inflation eased a bit in April.

"While it's the worst seasonally favorable period for gold (May-August), numerous technical indicators are screaming for a major bottom as early as today or on a wash-out to $650," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter, in e-mailed comments.

"The bullish sentiment among gold timers is almost nil -- another bullish factor that says we're close to a major bottom," he said.

The dollar rose against other major currencies Wednesday, recovering from prior-session losses in the wake of mixed housing and industrial production reports.

The number of new houses started increased by 2.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.528 million, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. But building permits fell 8.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.429 million, the lowest since June 1997.

Meanwhile, industrial production rose 0.7% in April. Utility output rose 3.5% in April due to a cold spell, the Federal Reserve said. This followed a sharp 7.5% drop in March, as temperatures were relatively warm.

"Funds are obviously increasing their yen carry trade loans given the weakness in the Japanese yen," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report. "Those monies are flowing into paper assets." And "all of this is creating an excellent buying opportunity" for gold, he said. "The average price of gold in April exceeded the previous high average monthly price in May of last year, confirming that a new leg in the gold market is about to start," he said. "This week's oversold condition in gold should be used to buy," Schmidt said.

[Roland99]

27. This is the 2nd time recently that starts went up while permits dropped like a lead zeppelin.

:wtf:

[AnneD]

33. Well....

let's do some Led Zepplin... Not Stairway-too easy.

Whole Lotta Love"

You need coolin', baby, I'm not foolin',
I'm gonna send you back to schoolin',
Way down inside honey, you need it,
I'm gonna give you my love,
I'm gonna give you my love.

<snip>
You've been learnin', baby, I bean learnin',
All them good times, baby, baby, I've been yearnin',
Way, way down inside honey, you need it,
I'm gonna give you my love... I'm gonna give you my love.

<snip>
You've been coolin', baby, I've been droolin',
All the good times I've been misusin',
Way, way down inside, I'm gonna give you my love,
I'm gonna give you every inch of my love,
Gonna give you my love.

<snip>

[Ghost Dog]

42. Ok. Can't Resist:

Temptation (comp. Tom Waits)
Also performed by Diana Krall
-- "clink" --
Rusted brandy in a diamond glass
everything is made from dreams
time is made from honey slow and sweet
only the fools know what it means
temptation, temptation, temptation
oh, temptation, temptation, I can't resist
I know that she is made of smoke
but I've lost my way
she knows that I am broke
so that I must play
temptation, temptation, temptation
oh, whoa, temptation, temptation, I can't resist
Dutch pink and Italian blue
she is waiting there for you
my will has disappeared
now my confusion's oh so clear
temptation, temptation, temptation
whoa, whoa, temptation, temptation

[AnneD]

46. Good choice....

I need to get some Krull albums for my collection.

[Ghost Dog]

38. No sign of shekel-dollar rate bottoming out

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/DocView.asp?did=1000212637&fid=942
The representative rate fell to 3.932 today. Manufacturers: Help us before a disaster happens.

Zeev Klein and Hadas Manor 16 May 07 18:48

The shekel-dollar exchange rate continues to slide, while the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange continues to break records. Today's representative shekel-dollar rate was set at 3.932, 1% lower than yesterday's rate, while the Tel Aviv 25 index climbed another 0.45% to an all-time high.

Despite the strength of the shekel, Governor of the Bank of Israel Stanley Fischer is expected to reduce the central bank's key rate by just 25 basis points to 3.3% for June.

[AnneD]

24. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. I took a mental health day. Boy, did I ever feel healthier when I finally went on DU. I'm refuse to get into a Christian version of a pissing contest, but there some things I strongly believe in. I believe in helping the poor, widowed, single parents, orphaned children, the sick. I believe in being a good steward of the many blessings God has given us. I believe God loves variety and we are reflective of God and that is why we are all so diverse. I believe that you can't legislate morality-that is dictated by your conscious. Although a religious person, I don't presume to know God's will nor do I try to enforce it on others. I had many of the same influences about me that Mr. Falwell had and yet I came to some very different conclusions. I look forward one day to visiting the great undiscovered country and I hope he fairs well. I wish, for one fleeting moment, I could have been there.

I felt great about my mental health day, even after the news.....But then, the GOP candidates depressed and distress me. I know they are playing to their base but :wtf:

I was in a PSYOP unit in the reserve. We HAD interrogators, and I would participate in the interrogations at times. One thing we had drilled into out peanut brain was the Geneva convention and that torture doesn't work. What shocked the hell out of me was the applause when some of these candidates (who never were in the military btw) got when they approved of torture. When you are torturing someone, they will tell you anything to get the torture to stop. So how reliable will your info be. Not only that, you have just lost the battle for the heart and mind of that person. If you treated him well or even released him-he might give you better info, even being another set of eyes for you. This whole pro torture sentiment needs to be rooted out of our culture. I am glad Gen. Petreaus came out against this from the get go. I hope our troops are strong enough to get the info without the torture. This puts everyone of them in danger to be tortured. My heart goes out to those captured troops and their families. I is things like this that have me rethinking my citizenship.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[mojavekid]

31. Fleckenstein: 'See no evil' market avoids the facts

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/SeeNoEvilMarketAvoidsTheFacts.aspx

All evidence points to a consumer-driven recession, but the market bulls insist on finding sunshine in the darkest cloud.

Wall Street seems to have a huge paper shredder at its disposal. Stock bulls have kept it working overtime, as they feed in whatever "offending" facts threaten their Goldilocks -- not too strong, not too weak, but just right -- scenario. Last week, you could almost hear the machinery of rationalization humming.

Dell, Intel take joy ride in a Packard
That's especially so in technology, where bulls last Tuesday took the company-specific good news from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, news, msgs) and turned it into an excuse to bid up the shares of Dell Inc. (DELL, news, msgs), Intel (INTC, news, msgs) and Micron Technology (MU, news, msgs). Which is almost humorous, given that Hewlett has basically done as well as it has for two reasons:

1. Dell is floundering so badly. Witness the fact that in the first quarter, Hewlett's units were up 26% and Dell's were down 15%, as Hewlett's market share rose from 21% to 25% here in the United States.

2. Component prices have collapsed. Disk-drive pricing has been at its worst level in several years, and DRAM prices dropped about 65% in the first quarter. In addition, there is a price war in processors. Component price collapses always boost margins for the PC vendors for a while, until they get around to their own little price war.

more...

[mojavekid]

34. Whiskey and Gunpowder: Squeeze on Wage Earners Accelerates

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7560.htm

The BLS is reporting Real Earnings Drop .5 percent in April.

Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.5 percent from March to April after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. A 0.3 percent decline in average weekly hours and a 0.5 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers were partially offset by a 0.2 percent rise in average hourly earnings.

Data on average weekly earnings are collected from the payroll reports of private nonfarm establishments. Earnings of both full-time and part-time workers holding production or nonsupervisory jobs are included. Real average weekly earnings are calculated by adjusting earnings in current dollars for changes in the CPI-W.

The BLS also reported the Consumer Price Index for April 2007 today.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U advanced 0.4 percent in April, following a 0.6 percent increase in March. The index for energy increased 2.4 percent after advancing 5.9 percent in March. In April, the index for petroleum-based energy rose 4.6 percent versus a 10.1 percent increase in March. The food index rose 0.4 percent in April, slightly more than in March. The index for all items less food and energy advanced 0.2 percent in April, following a 0.1 percent rise in March; the index for shelter rose 0.3 percent after advancing 0.1 percent in March, resulting from an upturn in the index for lodging away from home.

more...

[Roland99]

37. A little info on the CPI-U >>>>> (iow, inflation is REALLY 11.8%!!!)

http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=343

There now are three major CPI measures published by the BLS, CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) and the Chained CPI-U (C-CPI-U). The CPI-U is the popularly followed inflation measure reported in the financial media. It was introduced in 1978 as a more-broadly-based version of the then existing CPI, which was renamed CPI-W. The CPI-W is used in calculating Social Security benefits. These two series tend to move together and are based on frequent price sampling, which is supposed to yield something close to an average monthly price measure by component.

The C-CPI-U was introduced during the second Bush Administration as an alternate CPI measure. Unlike the theoretical approximation of geometric weighting to a variable, substitution-prone market basket, the C-CPI-U is a direct measure of the substitution effect. The difference in reporting is that August 2006 year-to-year inflation rates for the CPI-U and the C-CPI-U were 3.8% and 3.4%, respectively. Hence current inflation still has a 0.4% notch to be taken out of it through methodological manipulation. The C-CPI-U would not have been introduced unless there were plans to replace the current series, eventually.

Traditional inflation rates can be estimated by adding 7.0% to the CPI-U annual growth rate (3.8% +7.0% = 10.8% as of August 2006) or by adding 7.4% to the C-CPI-U rate (3.4% + 7.4% = 10.8% as of August 2006). Graphs of alternate CPI measures can be found as follows. The CPI adjusted solely for the impact of the shift to geometric weighting is shown in the graph on the home page of www.shadowstats.com. The CPI adjusted for both the geometric weighting and earlier methodological changes is shown on the Alternate Data page, which is available as a tab at the top of the home page.

So, if CPI-U is at a 4.8% annual clip, that means the traditional inflation rate is really 11.8%!!!


edit: oops...had the wrong measure in mind. Too many letters. ;)

[mojavekid]

39. Thanks Roland99!,

You are spot on, John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics is a treasure. A link to an FSN interview from two weeks ago with John. Scroll down to the third hour, May 5th;

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

-mojavekid

[Roland99]

40. 1:34pm - DOW shooting for new record high as Decliners still lead Advancers

DJIA 13,423.01 +39.17 +0.29%
Nasdaq 2,529.97 +4.68 +0.19%
S&P 500 1,506.63 +5.44 +0.36%
Dow Util 532.10 +2.20 +0.42%
NYSE 9,777.09 +12.36 +0.13%
AMEX 2,251.78 +1.39 +0.06%
Russell 2000 813.82 -0.36 -0.04%
Semcond 493.43 -4.65 -0.93%
Gold future 663.80 -10.70 -1.59%
30-Year Bond 4.88% -0.01 -0.16%
10-Year Bond 4.71% -0.00 -0.08%

Advancing
NYSE
1,556

NASDAQ
1,357

Declining
NYSE
1,631

NASDAQ
1,594

[Roland99]

44. Closing Numbers - Preakness Ponies for everyone!!!

DJIA 13,487.53 +103.69 +0.77%
Nasdaq 2,547.42 +22.13 +0.88%
S&P 500 1,514.14 +12.95 +0.86%
Dow Util 533.54 +3.64 +0.69%
NYSE 9,825.43 +60.70 +0.62%
AMEX 2,259.73 +9.34 +0.42%
Russell 2000 820.20 +6.02 +0.74%
Semcond 497.53 -0.55 -0.11%
Gold future 661.50 -13.00 -1.93%
30-Year Bond 4.87% -0.01 -0.20%
10-Year Bond 4.71% -0.00 -0.08%

U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday, as investors cheered stronger-than-expected industrial production data, Bausch & Lomb's buyout by a private equity firm.and speculation about a break-up of Citigroup Inc.

[Ghost Dog]

45. Almost, seemingly, at the (apparent) close:

Dow 13,487.53 Up 103.69 (0.77%)
Nasdaq 2,547.42 Up 22.13 (0.88%)
S&P 500 1,514.14 Up 12.95 (0.86%)
10-Yr Bond 4.7080% Down 0.0040
NYSE Volume 2,819,464,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,070,437,000

Well done the firemen there!

3:30 pm : Buying remains the name of the game going into the close, positioning the indices to close near session highs. The Dow is on pace to finish at a new all-time high again and, with constant headlines of the blue-chip index hitting new records, is likely to keep sentiment leaning in favor of the bulls.

The S&P 500, which has been down the past two days, is turning in an even better performance and is now 16 points away from its record close in March of 2000. DJ30 +78.91 NASDAQ +14.65 SP500 +9.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1449/1575/1.72 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1406/1849/1.16 bln

3:00 pm : More of the same for stocks as buying remains widespread across most areas. With Materials recently turning the corner, all 10 economic sectors are now in positive territory. Gains of more than 0.8% from Financials, Health Care, Consumer Staples, and Telecom are providing the bulk of today's leadership.

While the rotation out of small and mid-cap stocks into large-cap stocks holds true again today, it is worth noting that the Russell 2000 and S&P 400 MidCap indexes are also holding onto modest gains after languishing for much of the day. DJ30 +65.28 NASDAQ +12.81 R2K +0.3% SP400 +0.3% SP500 +9.21 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1378/1614/1.55 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1357/1884/1.04 bln

2:30 pm : Onward and upward is the driving mantra, for now, as the bulls continue to argue that stocks have more room to run. A 1.2% swing in the Energy sector from its bottom about two hours ago, sparked by a subsequent rebound in oil prices, has lent some much needed leadership.

Exacerbating the move higher has been the ability by the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to break through key resistance levels 13439, 1510, and 2533, respectively. Dallas Fed President Fisher recently citing some encouraging signs on inflation also appears to be a catalyst behind an improved underlying tone.DJ30 +64.60 NASDAQ +13.18 SP500 +9.26 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1350/1645/1.45 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1367/1865/954 mln

2:00 pm : The indices are extending their reach to the upside as a renewed wave of buying interest sends sellers running for cover. AT&T (T 41.00 +0.61) surging 1.5% to new all-time high is contributing to the noticeable move higher on the Dow and the S&P 500. With regard to the latter, AT&T ranks as the fifth most heavily-weighted name and its intraday advance now earmarks Telecom as today's best performing sector (+1.0%).

The Nasdaq, whose 4.9% year-to-date advance still lags respective 2007 gains of 7.7% and 6.2% on the Dow and S&P 500, is underperforming its blue-chip counterparts today as well. DJ30 +52.69 NASDAQ +7.91 SP500 +7.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1502/1476/1.31 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1543/1658/860 mln

1:30 pm : The market is trying to regain some traction after another consolidation attempt came up short. Eight out of 10 sectors now posting gains speaks to the broad-based nature of the latest rebound from recent lows. Below average volume and the A/D line, however, paint a less convincing picture. Advancers and decliners remain evenly matched on the NYSE, which is still more than 200 mln shares from surpassing 1.0 bln.

Even more disconcerting is the Nasdaq, where declining issues outpace advancing issues by a 16-to-13 margin. The tech-heavy index is getting the bulk of its support from a handful of influential names (e.g. CMCSA +1.5%, DELL +3.4%, QCOM +1.3%, DISH +2.0%, ADBE +1.6%, and GILD +1.7%). DJ30 +33.61 NASDAQ +4.46 SP500 +5.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1622/1329/1.21 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1586/1596/792 mln

1:00 pm : Stocks continue to back off their recent highs and, strangely, the market is exhibiting almost the exact same pattern as this morning's downturn. Declines in Energy (-0.9%) and Materials (-0.6%) have again been joined by reversals in Industrials, then Technology, and then Discretionary.

The only difference this time around is that Health Care (+0.7%) is now outpacing Financials (+0.6%) to the upside, which explains why the Dow is hanging onto a small gain and why the Nasdaq is struggling to stay positive. DJ30 +17.58 NASDAQ +0.05 SP500 +3.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1610/1302/1.08 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1594/1587/700 mln

12:30 pm : Choppy trading persists as the afternoon session gets underway. As was the case this morning, when oil prices slipped to session lows, investors appear to be viewing oil's downturn as more validation about slowing economic growth and a potential earnings squeeze in energy names. The Energy sector is now down 0.8%. Crude for June delivery is now down 2.0% and back below $62/bbl which is certainly a good thing for consumers and corporate profit growth for nearly every company outside of the oil complex.

As a reminder, higher energy prices have driven investors like Warren Buffett to build large stakes in Railroads (+1.0%) as more affordable alternatives to trucking. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway yesterday disclosed sizable positions in Norfolk Southern (NSC 56.36 +0.49) and Union Pacific (UNP 118.83 +0.54). Billionaire investor Carl Icahn disclosed yesterday that he bought 2.6 mln shares of CSX Corp. (CSX 46.08 +0.34).DJ30 +20.68 NASDAQ +1.65 SP500 +3.11 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1598/1294/1.01 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1509/1620/650 mln

12:00 pm : The indices are bouncing off their recent lows and retracing morning highs as investors juggle a buying spree among billionaires with mixed housing data and valuation concerns.

Stocks rose right out of the gate, lifting the Dow to yet another new all-time high. The price-weighted index's gain was buoyed by SEC filings that showed notable investments in three of its components. Citigroup (C 54.47 +1.68) is the index's best performer this morning, surging 3.2% after hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert disclosed an $800 mln stake. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 62.78 0.96) is turning in the next best performance (+1.6%) amid confirmation that Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway nearly doubled its stake.

Microsoft (MSFT 30.89 -0.01) is also in focus after George Soros more than doubled his investment in the tech bellwether; but shares are roughly flat after climbing 14% from their mid-March low. In fact, such strong gains from so many other blue-chip names ushered in a wave of consolidation about an hour ago; but it was no match for the underlying bullish momentum that has lifted stocks virtually uncontested for about eight weeks. As of yesterday's close, though, Citigroup and J&J were down 3.3% and 5.8% year to date, further playing into the bulls' argument that valuations remain reasonable and indicative of why both stocks are outperforming today.

Separately, housing starts unexpectedly rose 2.5% in April to 1.528 mln, reflecting some semblance of stabilization. However, building permits, which are a sign of future construction, plunged 8.9% to a 10-year low of 1.429 mln, providing more proof that housing remains mired in a deep slump.

Nonetheless, leadership from just a handful of influential large-caps, as has been the case for several weeks, continues to silence the argument that stocks are clearly running ahead of deteriorating fundamentals. DJ30 +43.39 NASDAQ +4.12 SP500 +5.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1549/1305/874 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1451/1642/562 mln

11:30 am : The major averages now trade in split fashion as sentiment continues to deteriorate. Technology and Consumer Discretionary, which combined account for more than 25% of the total weighting on the S&P 500, have become the latest sectors to turn negative.

With the Dow up 8.3% since the end of March, it's not surprising to see it look ripe for a pullback. The market's recent failure to embrace lower oil prices further underscores the growing sense that stocks are beginning to look overbought after running virtually unabated since the start of April. DJ30 -3.50 NASDAQ -2.07 SP500 +2.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1706/1104/702 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1560/1510/446 mln

11:00 am : The market is well off its best levels, as evidenced by the Dow briefly turning negative, as split industry now dictates today's trading. The Energy sector recently turning negative has removed some notable leadership. Albeit off its worst levels (-1.6% at $62.16/bbl), crude for June delivery is down 1.0% near $62.60/bbl following the largest build in weekly gasoline supplies since early February.

Also noteworthy has been a reversal in Industrials. Deere & Co. (DE 118.10 -2.55) has been the sector's biggest disappointment, exhibiting a 4.4% swing since the open. The stock was up 2.3% at an all-time high after handily beating expectations; but shares are now down 2.1% following cautious remarks in its conference call. DJ30 +3.24 NASDAQ +1.49 SP500 +3.53 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1374/1379/534 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1350/1655/340 mln

10:30 am : The indices continue to sport gains across the board as buyers remain in control of today's action. Aside from Financials (+0.8%), Health Care (+0.7%) is also acting as an influential source of market support.

Health Care Suppliers (+8.1) ranks as today's best performing S&P industry group after Bausch & Lomb (BOL 66.49 +4.99) agreed to be taken private by Warburg Pincus for $4.5 bln. HMOs (+1.4%) are another sector bright spot following reports that Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway also revealed a roughly $80 mln stake in WellPoint (WLP 85.10 +1.55). DJ30 +46.28 NASDAQ +9.80 SP500 +6.41 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1180/1477/374 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1147/1773/210 mln

10:00 am : Equities are still on the offensive as nine of 10 economic sectors remain positive. When the most heavily-weighted sector on the S&P 500, Financials (+0.8%), is turning in the day's best performance, it's not surprising to see the market as a whole trading higher.

Even though hedge fund manager Eddie Lampert's disclosed $800 mln stake in Citigroup (C 54.51 +1.72) amounts to only 0.3% of the Citi's outstanding shares, a subsequent 3.3% surge in the Dow component and fourth most influential constituent on the S&P 500 is having a noticeable impact on the broader market. Other Diversified Financial Services (+1.9%) ranks as today's second best performing S&P industry group. DJ30 +46.86 NASDAQ +10.23 SP500 +6.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 880/1586/170 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 738/1742/66 mln

09:40 am : As expected, stocks bounce back from yesterday's dismal finish as the disclosure of...

/...more/em]

[Ghost Dog]

47. BOJ Fukui: could raise rates even if CPI falling

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070517:MTFH09860_2007-05-17_07-40-06_TKU002833&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, May 17 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Thursday the central bank could raise interest rates even if consumer prices were still falling, but could do so only after confirming a future upward trend in prices.

He added that it would be wrong to think the BOJ was determined to lift interest rates even as consumer prices were declining.

"We will adjust interest rates gradually based on the pace of improvement in the economy and prices," Fukui told a news conference.

Earlier in the day, the central bank left monetary policy unchanged, keeping the overnight call rate at 0.50 percent as widely expected by financial markets.

It also kept its assessment of the economy unchanged in a monthly report, saying it was expanding moderately.

Government data showed gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, expanded 0.6 percent in January-March from the previous quarter, against a consensus forecast for a 0.7 percent rise. It grew an annualised 2.4 percent.

[Ghost Dog]

48. Japan Economic Growth Slows to 2.4 Pct.

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070517/ap/d8p60cfg0.html

Japanese economic growth slowed to a 2.4 percent pace in the first quarter as businesses cut back on investment amid worries about a slowdown in the United States, Japan's biggest export market.

But economists agreed that Japan's overall growth was still healthy and seemed to be stabilizing. The gross domestic product figures, released Thursday by the government, also came after an unusually strong October-December quarter, when the economy surged ahead at a 5 percent annual pace.

"It is a mistake to interpret it as poor figures being a sign of a new trend," said Richard Jerram, chief economist for Macquarie Securities in Tokyo. "Growth seems to be stabilizing at a solid healthy rate, without major fluctuations in either direction."

Economists said figures would likely discourage any immediate interest rate hike, but would not derail the Bank of Japan from pursuing future increases.

Just hours after the figures were released, the central bank said after a regularly scheduled policy meeting that it was keeping its benchmark rate at 0.5 percent.

"The headline figures today are consistent with the BOJ argument that overall growth is healthy," said Masamichi Adachi, senior economist with JP Morgan Securities in Tokyo. He forecasts the next hike in August to 0.75 percent.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

49. LEAD: Tokyo stocks end slightly lower, early gains erased on profit-taking

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070517/kyodo/d8p601c00.html
(Kyodo) _ (EDS: ADDING INFO)

Tokyo stocks ended slightly lower Thursday, wiping away earlier gains as investors stepped up selling in late trading after seeing declines in markets for start-up companies.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average fell 30.40 points, or 0.17 percent, to 17,498.60. The broader Topix index of all First Section issues on the Tokyo Stock Exchange was down 4.62 points, or 0.27 percent, to 1,707.27.

After advancing more than 100 points at one point in the morning session, the Nikkei steadily lost ground in afternoon trading. The index had lost all of its morning gains by mid-afternoon and finished Thursday's session in negative territory.

"Investors rushed to take profits after they saw the index's upside was limited and start-up markets, such as the Jasdaq, were falling," said Yutaka Shiraki, senior equity strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co.

Early in the morning session, investors purchased stocks on upbeat U.S. shares and the firm dollar following Japan's gross domestic product data for the January-March quarter, released shortly before the start of trading, brokers said.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

50. Asian Stocks Rise on Sony Forecast; Macquarie Bank Advances

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aKJUhCQOSlTU&refer=asia

May 17 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for the first time in three days, led by consumer electronics companies after Sony Corp. forecast record profit and Hewlett-Packard Co. said sales will top $100 billion for the first time.

Sony climbed the most in a month while rival liquid-crystal display television maker Sharp Corp. had its biggest jump in 11 months. Venture Corp., a Singapore-based supplier to Hewlett- Packard, posted its largest gain in two weeks.

``We've turned positive on technology,'' said Teo Chon Kiat, who helps manage about $8 billion at DBS Asset Management Ltd. in Singapore. ``The sector could start to perform, driven by demand going into the fourth quarter and the depletion of inventory.''

Japanese benchmarks fell, led by Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. on expectation banks will say profits decreased. Australia's Macquarie Bank Ltd. surged the most in 19 months amid speculation it's preparing for more takeover bids after abandoning plans to revive an offer for Qantas Airways Ltd.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index gained 0.1 percent to 148.44 at 3:58 p.m. in Tokyo, with a measure of technology shares the second-biggest contributor to the advance.

Japan's Topix index slipped 0.3 percent while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 0.2 percent. The only other benchmarks to drop were in Thailand, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Indonesia's stock market is closed today for a holiday.

South Korea's Hyundai Steel Co. rose after Arcelor Mittal, the world's biggest steelmaker, said first-quarter profit jumped 41 percent.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

51. Spanish rally helps lift European equities

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B70e76349%2D07f8%2D4f30%2D921a%2D3a39da95ea70%7D

Strong corporate earnings and merger speculation helped lift European equities yesterday (<-- * I thi nk that should read: "today"), despite some downside pressure from banks. Trade was light, however, with markets in Scandinavia, Switzerland and Austria closed for Ascension Day. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 climbed 0.2 per cent to 1,584.66, Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax added 0.2 per cent to 7,499.5 and the CAC 40 in Paris rose 0.2 per cent to 6,027. Spain’s equity market was one of the most active, and the benchmark Ibex 35 climbed 0.3 per cent to 14,968.2. Merger talk was behind much of the gains. Iberdrola rose 2.4 per cent to €41.12 amid rumours construction group ACS was poised to sell its holding in Union Fenosa to fund an increase in its 13 per cent stake in the Bilbao-based power company. Goldman Sachs raised its target price on Iberdrola from €40 to €42 saying the company was a plausible takeover candidate. ACS added 2.2 per cent to €47.04.

[Ghost Dog]

52. European stocks end higher as oil producers rally

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-05-17T154812Z_01_L17249071_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-URGENT.XML

LONDON, May 17 (Reuters) - European shares ended a touch higher on Thursday, boosted by oil stocks as crude rose and takeover talk circulated, while miners helped cap gains as copper prices sank.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> rose 0.2 percent to 1,584.7 points, with activity restricted by holidays in the Nordic markets, Austria and Switzerland.

Around Europe, London's FTSE 100 index .FTSE gained 0.3 percent, Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> rose 0.2 percent and Paris's CAC 40 <.FCHI> added 0.2 percent.

A 1.8 percent rise in crude oil futures <LCOc1> made oil stocks the best-performing sector within the broader European markets, with BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile , Research) up 2.4 percent, while Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) added 1.8 percent and Repsol (REP.MC: Quote, Profile , Research) added 2.2 percent.

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile , Research) jumped 3 percent as traders said it could be the subject of a heavyweight tie-up, possibly with BP. Both companies declined to comment.

Mining stocks languished, with BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile , Research) down 2.2 percent and Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile , Research) 2 percent lower as copper prices dropped.