New Health Fears Over Big Surge in Autism

[pnwmom]

Source: The Guardian (Great Britain)

"The number of children in Britain with autism is far higher than previously thought, according to dramatic new evidence by the country's leading experts in the field.

SNIP

"Seven academics at Cambridge University, six of them from its renowned Autism Research Centre, undertook the research by studying children at local primary schools. Two of the academics, leaders in their field, privately believe that the surprisingly high figure may be linked to the use of the controversial MMR vaccine. That view is rejected by the rest of the team, including its leader, the renowned autism expert, Professor Simon Baron-Cohen.

The team found that one in 58 children has either autism or a related autistic spectrum disorder. Nationwide, that could be as many as 210,000 children under 16. The research is significant because that figure is well above the existing estimate of one in 100, which specialist bodies such as the National Autistic Society have until now accepted as correct. It is also significantly more than the previous highest estimate of one in 86, which was reported in research published last year in the Lancet.

Some experts who previously explained the rise in autism as the result of better diagnosis and a broader definition of the condition now believe the upward trend revealed by studies such as this indicates that there has been a real rise in the numbers of children who are affected by it. Although the new research is purely statistical and does not examine possible explanations for the rise, two of the authors believe that the MMR jab, which babies receive at 12 to 15 months, might be partly to blame. Dr Fiona Scott and Dr Carol Stott both say it could be a factor in small numbers of children.

Read more: http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,2121521,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront

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Before you start flaming this, please note that the doctors who think that autism may be linked to the vaccine are only suggesting that it could be a "factor" for "small numbers" of the children.

My own feeling is that it will turn out that autism starts with a genetic predisposition that can be triggered by a number of factors, alone or in combination. It is too early to rule anything "in" or "out."

[China_cat]

1. One reason for the 'surge'

is that now a lot of behaviors that were once considered strange but normal are now included in the autism spectrum...excessive shyness for one.

Not a surge in the condition but a surge in what is considered the condition.

[pnwmom]

2. Actually, the surge is so great that it leads to the opposite conclusion --

that the increase is real, not just a matter of a change in diagnosis.

"Some experts who previously explained the rise in autism as the result of better diagnosis and a broader definition of the condition now believe the upward trend revealed by studies such as this indicates that there has been a real rise in the numbers of children who are affected by it."

[MannyGoldstein]

3. Probably Correct

There's no question that almost any child who is not gregarious enough to be a used-car salesman gets labeled as being on the "Autistic Spectrum" (even though an "Autisitc Spectrum" has never been demonstrated through any means other than speculation... Autism is a real disease, but the presence of a "spectrum" of Autism is a wild guess). So it's really tough to tell if kids are actually different, or just labeled differently.

[Igel]

4. I reserve judgment.

If we find out that a study whose conclusions we don't like was funded by the NIH during *'s tenure, it's often dismissed.

If there's a study funded by big pharma or by a tobacco company, we tend to treat the findings with more than a grain of scepticism, *even if* the study passes peer review.

So here's an Autism Research Centre, whose sole clain on funding is autism, going out and finding that autism and austistic spectrum disorder is a much more serious problem than anybody could have ever even dreamed to suspect. How? By looking for it, and finding what they are looking for. Next demand: Please, we're looking for more research funding, can we please find what we're looking for?

Now, I'm not saying austism isn't a serious problem, or that vaccines can't exacerbate it. But I reserve judgment on this research team's findings until maybe somebody with a bit less of a conflict of interest repeats the findings.

[LeftishBrit]

5. Two related points here...

From the Autism Research Centre's website:

http://www.autismresearchcentre.com/research/project.asp?id=8

First sentence:

'Regretfully, anyone born before 1980 who may have had AS are likely to have gone undiagnosed, as AS was not recognized in the UK before this time.'


This indicates that children nowadays are much more likely to be diagnosed as having Asperger syndrome and related conditions now than 20 or 30 years ago - because these conditions are far more recognized nowadays.

I realize that this would not be relevant to a rise in diagnoses of lower-functioning autism; but here is my second point: Such diagnoses are unlikely to be a big factor in this particular study, because the study, according to the report, was carried out in *local primary schools*. Children with severe forms of autism would normally not be attending mainstream schools (some do, but it's unusual); they would most usually attend schools for children with learning difficulties, or specialist units for autistic children. Therefore, it's likely that this study picked up more on higher-functioning autistic children and those with Asperger syndrome, who are much more likely to get diagnosed nowadays.

From my own observations, schools in the UK nowadays tend to suspect and investigate for autism and related disorders *very* readily, in complete contrast to what was the case a few years ago.