IEA warns of 'supply crunch' in oil despite high prices

[Subdivisions]

Source: Internation Herald Tribune

LONDON: World oil demand will rise faster than expected to 2012 while production lags, leading to a supply crunch, the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

In its Medium-Term Oil Market Report, the adviser to 26 industrialized countries said demand will rise by an average 2.2 percent a year between 2007 and 2012, up from a previous medium-term forecast of 2 percent.

The outlook, which updates an IEA forecast last issued in February, coincides with a jump in oil prices to more than $75 a barrel, closing in on a record high near $79, on concerns of a tightening market.

"Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010," the IEA said.

Read more: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/07/09/business/oil.php

---

Is this an admission by the IEA that OPEC will reach a peak in its oil production soon, perhaps as soon as 2009?

If so, this planet is in for some BIG changes.

[robinlynne]

1. I want an electric car NOW!

[hogwyld]

7. Unfortunately, that will be the first thing to go

will be the car culture. The world will be forced to give up personal transportation in favor of mass transit, and will more than likely end in the gradual death of suburbia. That's if anyone's left after the global resource war with China doesn't cleanse the earth of the human virus.

[Chomskyite]

46. Are you James Kunstler?

If so, glad to have you at DU. I think you're fighting the good fight. I just wish your predictions were wrong . . . as I'm sure you do.

[hogwyld]

54. I'll be so happy to be wrong on this one!

Unfortunately, the savings account (oil) is just about at it's end, and people being somewhat irrational at times, can do things that they would normally abhor. I hope humanity proves me wrong, and rubs my nose in it.

[kestrel91316]

2. I wish my jerk landlord would pay me my relocation compensation

already so I can get moved into an apartment within easy walking distance of my office! I want to live like a European (admittedly not an easy task in suburban Los Angeles).

[phantom power]

3. We hit the peak in 2005. We'll be on the way down by 2009.

[NickB79]

4. Sigh, it's been fun while it lasted

All that's left now is to load up the car with Cheetos and ammo and move back to the family farm.

[L0oniX]

5. I am surprised that we aren't paying over $4 a gallon right now.

We've reached peak (sweet) oil supply according to many studies and research. Our dependence on oil is going to be our final undoing but hey ...keep buying and driving those wonderful SUV's and Ford F250's ...ya stupid ass carrots!

Google "peak oil" sometime.

[Subdivisions]

6. Peak Oil...

Perhaps the most important "conspiracy theory" ever. Funny that. Considering the US hit peak oil in 1970. Australia 2000. United Kingdom 2006-7. Mexico 2006. Maybe Saudi Arabia - 2008-9. I've got it from numerous sources that if Saudi Arabia (OPEC) peaks, then it won't just be the peak in production of a particular country. It will be the overall peak of WORLD oil production.

There's no turning back from there. It's all downhill.

FAST & HARD

Source: http://www.peakoil.net/">Association for the Study of Peak Oil



Also check out this commentary:

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~bgoodsel/post911/2004/12/peak-oil-department-of-energy-knows.htm

[Javaman]

27. Pfft, I'm surprised we haven't had more shortages other than S.D.

The current amount of Gasoline that is stored for use is at an all time low. Lower than it was in the 70's when people were lining up for miles for gas.

What is the difference between then and now? why aren't people angry? why are they complacent?

Because it's not being reported. That's why.

When we had a news media that wasn't controlled by big oil or some sort of repuke front man, the news was actually reported.

but alas, we are being lulled into a sense of false security and the majority of the country believes that the oil prices are a result of price gouging.

Perhaps that's a part of it, but it's more with to do with the willful ignorance of the American public.

[Delphinus]

49. And be sure to check out our own "little"

Peak Oil forum right here on DU!

[RamboLiberal]

8. World will face oil crunch ‘in five years’

Source: Financial Times

The world is facing an oil supply “crunch” within five years that will force up prices to record levels and increase the west’s dependence on oil cartel Opec, the industrialised countries’ energy watchdog has warned.

In its starkest warning yet on the world’s fuel outlook, the International Energy Agency said “oil looks extremely tight in five years time” and there are “prospects of even tighter natural gas markets at the turn of the decade”.

The IEA said that supply was falling faster than expected in mature areas, such as the North Sea or Mexico, while projects in new provinces such as the Russian Far East, faced long delays. Meanwhile consumption is accelerating on strong economic growth in emerging countries.

The problem is exacerbated by the fact that supply from non-members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase at an annual pace of 1 per cent, or less than half the rate of the demand rise.


Read more: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2d97d75a-2e0c-11dc-821c-0000779fd2ac.html

[kenfrequed]

9. Sigh

Well I suppose if the White house has its way it will bomb Iran and foment a coup against Chavez in preperation.

Friggin jerks.

I can't believe these jerks told us years ago that conservation was not a part of their strategy. Oh no wait... I can believe it.

[Hulk]

10. Wouldn't it be great if we "did something about it"??

We have the ability to get our heads out of our asses and get off this oil glut that we have enjoyed since the beginning of the automobile. Alternative energy sources, fuel efficient cars, conservation.... We could be prepared if we aren't held slaves to the f*cking oil companies and our corrupt political system.

[rwenos]

11. Why Not a New Manhattan Project?

I heard today the WOT is costing TWELVE BILLION DOLLARS A MONTH. That's FOUR HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS A DAY.

If we took a TENTH of that, how long would it take us to have 85% of our cars either hybrids or plug-ins?

I can't see why people don't see this as a HOMELAND DEFENSE issue.

[GOPBasher]

12. Isn't it mindnumbing to think of the numbers that way?

I mean, we've spent what, four hundred billion dollars just in Iraq? With that money, how many scientists and engineers could we have hired to do alternative energy research.

[SammyWinstonJack]

24. But then Halliburton/BFEE/Cheney et al wouldn't have had the opportunity to

TO ROB US BLIND! and that is exactly what they have been doing with their WOT bu$hit. As a result we have no money for alternative energy research and as such are still dependent on their greedy oil buddies. The real MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!

[Bread and Circus]

14. /salute

[Auntie Bush]

23. and the big american auto companies who are only surviving

because rich thoughtless, selfish people still want their SUV's. (Sorry all you SUV owners) I'm sure many people will trade them in when they buy their next new car. We also need more regular cars and station wagons with 4 wheel drive. Many people could easily give up their SUV for cars with those features.

[MatrixEscape]

13. Ahh ... Peak Oil

rears its ugly head. Not many people know about or understand the science and controversy surrounding it.

One way or another, sooner or later, (probably sooner) we will not have enough oil to sustain what we are calling modern civilization/life.

Sadly, investigation into alternatives shows that none of them will even come close to replacing the black blood that courses through the veins of our modern way of life. A way of life that affects, in one way or another, poor and rich.

Then of course, there is the fact that the alternatives might effect energy and transportation, but they have little to do with solving the problem that petroleum is much, much more than fuel. It touches and comprises our lives all across the board, including: herbicides, pesticides, plastics, chemicals, medicines, paints, clothing ... and the list goes on and on and on. We would have to come up with an entire, sweeping range of alternatives to what is made out of petroleum and used in daily live -- that is, if we wanted to even come close to preserving a semblance of what we experience now in every strata of society.

When you speak of alternatives, keep in mind the large segment of poor to middle-class in our increasingly disparate caste-system in America. How will that segment be able to afford a new, efficient car, alternative energy upgrades or devices, and all the other luxuries that could help cut energy and petroleum use, but are at the bottom of the list of bills and essential needs from paycheck to paycheck?

We may be on the precipice of a a new way of life -- one where the PC and the TV are remembered as magical props in legends. Those of us who survive the period of peak oil may eventually rediscover a more simple, tribe-like, agrarian lifestyle after the coming wars for resources and the endless squabbles and carnage that follow that.

Oh, and yes, with our mental capacity and tool-making skills, we might have been able to avert this by being realistic and practical and putting survival and equity above greed and glitz. But, the epitaph on the close of this technological and innovative wave will be something to the effect that we didn't seem to give a shit about the future, (though we are now obsessed with it) and that we were not even good a materialism, because we didn't even respect or take care of that aspect of our World.

[DKRC]

17. Millennia from now

we might be the new Atlantis myth - dazzling tales of people with amazing technology that wrought their own downfall through hubris ...

[Odin2005]

22. What a load of pessimistic, short sighted BS.

So you think we can't find a replacement for oil? What a pathetic screed that is an insult to human ingenuity. You sound like the folks wo said there would never be heavier-then-air flight, or thought that we would never get to the moon, or said "whatever can be invented will be invented. All you people who act as if PO is going to be the end of civilization are like that and it's fucking stupid.

[Javaman]

26. Man you are a riot.

sell tell me Einstein what you do you plan on replacing oil with? coal? nuclear? wind? solar?

All of which don't have the energy storage level that oil has.

are you perhaps waiting for some miraculous technological breakthrough? don't hold your breath.

everything in our society uses oil. That includes everything that might be used to "invent" a new form of energy usage.

oil is an energy carrier. Once you understand that, you then understand that there is currently no replacement for it as to the way we have set up our society.

be prepared to change. Just a fact. and if you don't believe me, don't. I could care less, but that doesn't mean it's still not going to run out.

[Subdivisions]

55. "Oil is an energy carrier."

EXACTLY!

In order to replace it, we would have to use energy to create a synthetic substance which contains inherent solar energy and the chemical makeup that is capable of not only being turned into gasoline but also which is used for the manufacture of the following list of items:

Products Made from Oil

Ink Dishwashing liquids Paint brushes Telephones
Toys Unbreakable dishes Insecticides Antiseptics
Dolls Car sound insulation Fishing lures Deodorant
Tires Motorcycle helmets Linoleum Sweaters
Tents Refrigerator linings Paint rollers Floor wax
Shoes Electrician's tape Plastic wood Model cars
Glue Roller-skate wheels Trash bags Soap dishes
Skis Permanent press clothes Hand lotion Clothesline
Dyes Soft contact lenses Shampoo Panty hose
Cameras Food preservatives Fishing rods Oil filters
Combs Transparent tape Anesthetics Upholstery
Dice Disposable diapers TV cabinets Cassettes
Mops Sports car bodies Salad bowls House paint
Purses Electric blankets Awnings Ammonia
Dresses Car battery cases Safety glass Hair curlers
Pajamas Synthetic rubber VCR tapes Eyeglasses
Pillows Vitamin capsules Movie film Ice chests
Candles Rubbing alcohol Loudspeakers Ice buckets
Boats Ice cube trays Credit cards Fertilizers
Crayons Insect repellent Water pipes Toilet seats
Caulking Roofing shingles Fishing boots Life jackets
Balloons Shower curtains Garden hose Golf balls
Curtains Plywood adhesive Umbrellas Detergents
Milk jugs Beach umbrellas Rubber cement Sun glasses
Putty Faucet washers Cold cream Bandages
Tool racks Antihistamines Hair coloring Nail polish
Slacks Drinking cups Guitar strings False teeth
Yarn Petroleum jelly Toothpaste Golf bags
Roofing Tennis rackets Toothbrushes Perfume
Luggage Wire insulation Folding doors Shoe polish
Fan belts Ballpoint pens Shower doors Cortisone
Carpeting Artificial turf Heart valves LP records
Lipstick Artificial limbs Hearing aids Vaporizers
Aspirin Shaving cream Wading pools Parachutes

How many items in that list can you live without?

[ryanmuegge]

45. I'm confident that something will be found eventually.

It's going to take quite some time, though, and many will die. I doubt the landing will be soft.

[NickB79]

47. The question isn't "Can anything replace oil"

That answer is most definitely yes, at least theoretically. If you could go into the Way-Back machine and get cracking back in the 1970's or even 1960's, knowing what we were facing today, we could be completely free of the need for oil by now.

The real question is "Can anything replace oil before oil production collapses in the next 5-10 years?" I'm afraid the answer to that (especially considering the general apathy and stupidity of the average American) is no. It would take a concerted effort from every American, European, Indian, and Chinese citizen over the next 5-10 years to rapidly reduce our use of oil, while at the same time investing in new energy sources (wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, etc). It would require a level of sacrifice that Americans haven't seen since at least WWII, if not beyond that. My observations have been that most Americans won't do this. For example, propose over on the GD board that we go back to 55 mph limits to conserve gas. Overwhelmingly, more posters will oppose this than support it, even here on DU.

I'm fairly certain that PO won't end civilization, but between it, global warming and resource wars, billions will likely die. In the end, alternatives to oil will be implemented, but only after we've exhausted every other conceivable option to keep sucking down the black gold. By then, though, society may not look very much like it does today.

[Javaman]

51. Simple fact...

oil is an energy carrier. It's concentrated power. 1 gallon of gasoline is the equivalent of 30 man hours of work.

Currently, no other energy carrier comes even close to oil.

Not only that, but just a single barrel of oil, when refined produces more items for use in society than any other raw material in the history of the world.

Finding something to replace that is by all current accounts impossible.

[Subdivisions]

56. Exactly. Saw your post after posting #55.

[SKKY]

15. It's an insult to everything that is American when a country like Brasil...

...can be 100% energy independent, yet we cannot. :sigh:

[Javaman]

28. big myth. they aren't. they still import oil. nt

[SKKY]

37. No it isn't. Yes, they are. Show me proof?

[Javaman]

38. Just spoke to my office mate. She just moved here from Brazil. Good enough for you? nt

[Javaman]

39. And if thats not good enough for you. here you are...

Oil - consumption: 2.1 million bbl/day (2006 est.)

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/print/br.html

and here...

http://www.cslforum.org/brazil.htm

I could go on and on but I think you get the point.

Google is your friend. (brazil oil consumption)

[SKKY]

44. Ok, so over the past few months, I've found about as much info...

...saying Brazil is oil independent as there was info saying that they still import. So, I guess your friend (who lived there) will serve as the tie-breaker, and you win. But they are way, way closer to the ultimate goal of complete independence than we are (or are ever likely to be), so that part still stands. Some of my own readings...

http://www.newsmax.com/money/archives/articles/2006/4/24/180702.cfm

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/08/19/AR2006081900842.html

http://www.matternetwork.com/2007/6/us-envies-brazils-energy-independence.cfm

[4dsc]

50. And the big difference you're missing is

Brazil still derives 90% of their transportation fuel from fossil fuels, that they use 1/7th of the per capita energy usage that we use in the U.S., and they have a much better crop for producing ethanol in sugarcane.

SO if Brazil uses 1/7th of the per capita energy usage that we use in the U.S, how will we ever become energy independent?? The answer of course is never!!

55 mph on the highways is not going to do it.. Wishful thinking about human ingenuity is not going to do it(man has never invented a fuel when needed).. And technology will not put more oil in the goround, although technology has allowed us to extract oil from oil field's much faster than in the past thus oil field's decline faster ie Mexico and North Sea for two good examples of peak oil..

So unless you want to use 1/7th the energy you use today, we will never become the next Brazil!!

[barb162]

16. Both oil and natural gas ae very tight now. There's not much flexibility

in the supply and the demand keeps rising.

[Kablooie]

18. Whoever is the next president better damn well put this at the top of his/her agenda!

[Javaman]

30. Obama is promoting clean coal. I love the guy, but this is the big

sticking point for me.

[JCMach1]

19. Nice PR Story to Help Cover the Recent Speculative Spikes

in Oil prices...

[Blackbird_Highway]

20. Head Not In Sand!

Already paid a deposit on my Tesla all electric car. Solar panels going up on the roof this October. New tailpipe: 93 million miles, all the way back to the sun, baby!

So dammit, we can do something about it. Our government is actively making it harder to transition, when it should be making it easier. Fuck you OPEC! Fuck you Detroit, with your gas guzzler Hummers! Fuck you Congress critters, who can't raise CAFE to save your fucking, no ALL our fucking lives, but still provide $100,000 tax breaks to buy Hummers!

Fuck you Bush/Chaney and all you oily Repuke assholes!

It's expensive, but saying goodbye to the oil economy: PRICELESS!

Contact your Congresscritters today and tell them you want national CARB-style electric car mandate. Don't let them sell you on hydrogen. Hydrogen is just a big distraction; it will never, ever work. It will always be 10-20 years away. Electric is here today. Tell Congress you want incentives for solar and wind power. Governement support for clean energy is not even 1/10th of one percent of what it spends supporting the oil economy. Yeah, those poor folks like OPEC and Exxon-Mobil, we really need to pay tax dollars to support them, don't we?

Congress won't listen, so be prepared to donate and vote and work like hell to get them the hell out of there. It's not just the Repukes either. Dingel is one of the worst, even though he is a Democrat. He has always pushed the absolute worse energy policies.

BH

[Javaman]

31. where do you work? I want a job there so I can afford those things...

sadly, most of the nation and the world don't have the income that you have and as such can not afford to get a tesla or panels.

I will be in the dark cooking food from my garden on my solar cooker. Praying all the while for rain to fill up my rain barrels.

But congrats to you, at least you have the means to make a positive change. :)

[Toots]

21. Oh Jeez Exxon's NET PROFIT must be down to almost a hundred million a day now...

Panic mode soon I guess. When they get down to only raking in Net Profit of a hundred million dollars a day they get grumpy.

[Javaman]

32. That is when end of times happens. lol nt

[Strelnikov_]

25. "And we are running out of oil."

And we are running out of oil. The capitalist-imperialist model is having trouble.

The consumerism of the north is confronting its trouble. There is not enough oil in the whole world to sustain this irrational model of consumerism and waste. Because this consumerism is a terrible waste of resources.

On the other hand, the U.S. does not have enough oil. That was the main reason for the coup against me. Oil.

They wanted our oil. We're talking about 2002. The idea was to then go into Iraq. And then to Iran

Of course, they failed here. In Iraq, I think they will also fail. Now, they're targeting Iran.

- Hugo Chavez from "Finding Bolivar's Heir"

[Subdivisions]

29. Can I get a couple more recs please to send this to the

Greatest page? I consider this THE most important issue facing mankind EVER! Kick it for exposure, PLEASE!

[Javaman]

33. gave you mine!

aside from climate change, peak oil is what it's all about.

odd how climate change came about because of our use of fossil fuel. but the upside is, in a few thousand years after fossil fuels have run out, hopefully the earth will be able to "correct" itself. but then again, we really don't know what the correct weather pattern or climate is for the world.

[Subdivisions]

35. "in a few thousand years

after fossil fuels have run out" ...

Can you please put that statement into context?

Edited to add: And thank you for the rec ;)

[Javaman]

41. LOL whoops, you're right....

after oil runs out in a few years, thousands of years from now...

oh and check out this book, I just found out about it...

http://www.amazon.com/World-Without-Us-Alan-Weisman/dp/0312347294

[Nihil]

34. Done.

Every bit helps but given the attitudes that we see around us every day
(even here on DU) I'm dubious as to whether another article stating the
bleeding obvious is going to make any impact.

Whilst there are none so blind as those who choose not to see, the ones
who decry conservation & preparation really aren't far behind.

[Subdivisions]

36. Thanks! As, as far as attitudes towards oil depletion

are concerned, I just don't get it. Why do people not want to hear it? They would just rather not hear about it and hope the consequences never catch up to them. But it will.

Imagine weeds growing up through EVERY grocery store in this country. Then what?

[4dsc]

43. Why??

Because they don't want to deal with reality...

[Barrett808]

40. The Oil Drum provides excellent analysis:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2754#comment-210834

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2755#comments

[4dsc]

42. You beat me to it!! nt

[NickB79]

48. This isn't getting nearly the amount of media attention it should be

The US imports 60% of its oil, so this will be catastrophic to our economy, yet so few people seem as concerned as they should be.

[Strelnikov_]

52. Loss of 0.6% of nationwide refining capacity (Coffeyville KS)

results in a 17% price increase in the Midwest.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/fn/4957962.html

Nope, no supply problems here.

[gasperc]

53. in Armed Madness they talk about this issue

and he points to the fact that heavy oil, like tar sands and so forth are abundant in Canada and Venuzuela, in turn eventually making Saudia Arabia a minor player in oil reserves, however, this is only if oil Remains at $30/barrel. So the saudi's are making a boatload of money while oil is at $70+/b AND they are buying treasury bills to the tune of over $311 BILLION dollars keeping the debt cycle afloat without a tax and helping fund the war in Iraq(which in turn is helping keep the oil prices)

BUT, here's the conumdrum and the law of unintended consequences, high oil prices make other options like tar sands viable, they also force energy efficiency which slowly will reduce demand to cut the gas bill. So at what point does this prcarious balance implode?