STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday July 16

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

Monday July 16, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 556 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2383 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2095 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2056
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 13, 2007

Dow... 13,907.25 +45.52 (+0.33%)
Nasdaq... 2,707.00 +5.27 (+0.20%)
S&P 500... 1,552.50 +4.80 (+0.31%)
Gold future... 667.30 -1.00 (-0.15%)
30-Year Bond 5.18% -0.02 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.09% -0.01 (-0.27%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

Housing and the Stock Market
BY TIM W. WOOD

I first reported here publicly on October 28, 2005 that the housing market was at risk of having completed a long-term cyclical top. At that time I posted a couple of housing indexes, gave the key levels to watch and said that any such break would be a major indication that the housing market had indeed topped. This break did in fact occur with the decline into the following intermediate-term cycle low and I know that along the Gulf Coast, housing has been dead ever since.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Buttercup McToots]

2. $80.28

:eyes:

[texpatriot2004]

3. K & R nm

[ozymandius]

4. Today's Report

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Jul
Actual 26.5
Briefing Forecast 15.0
Market Expects 17.0
Prior 25.8

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

6. July Empire State index @ 26.5

20. U.S. July Empire State news orders index highest since 3/06
8:30 AM ET, Jul 16, 2007 - 14 minutes ago

21. U.S. July Empire State new orders index 26.5 vs 17.2 in June
8:30 AM ET, Jul 16, 2007 - 17 minutes ago

22. U.S. July Empire State index above consensus 17.0
8:30 AM ET, Jul 16, 2007 - 17 minutes ago

23. U.S. July Empire State index 26.5 vs 25.8 in June
8:30 AM ET, Jul 16, 2007 - 17 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

5. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.543 Change +0.008 (+0.01%)

Dollar on the Ropes

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Dollar_on_the_Ropes_1184562306661.html

numbers the US consumer is now in a deep funk as the Mortgage Equity Withdrawal spigot has been completely shut off providing no alternative source of income aside from the relatively stagnant wages. In fact credit card borrowing jump4ed to its highest levels in 6 months in May suggesting that the US consumer has turned to his last source of available funds. None of this of course bodes well for second half growth as spending which makes up more than 70% US GDP is likely continue to be drag on the overall economy.

Next week the calendar offers little hope to greenback bulls unless it provides a series of upside surprises. The middle of the week should set the tone with Industrial Production on Tuesday of key importance followed by Housing starts on Wednesday. If manufacturing aided by the weak dollar continues to perform well then it will be the one bright spot in the US economy, providing a small offset to the gloomy consumer news. Furthermore, should housing data on Wednesday suggest some stabilization then we may have a reflex rally on the assumption that the worst is over. Yet these are all thin reeds of hope to base an argument for a EURUSD top. The one strong reason may be sentiment. Our proprietary SSI gauge is flashing gross imbalances in positioning suggesting that a pause in the uptrend may be near. -BS



...more...

Iran’s Asks Japan to Pay for Oil in Yen, Putting a Dent into Carry Trades

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dollar_Unfazed_by_Weak_Retail_1184362936768.html

The Japanese Yen rebounded today following news that Iran wants Japan to start paying for its oil in Yen. This announcement is more important symbolically than economically because Japan only imports $10 billion worth of oil per year. In a market that trades over $2 trillion a day, this should hardly put a dent into the market’s overall demand for Yen. Furthermore, Iran is running out of oil, having only recently imposed fuel rations. Symbolically this is important however because it shows that many nations are concerned about the imported inflation that the weakness of the dollar has brought to their own countries. Just yesterday, Kuwait announced that it was going to allow the dinar to appreciate by 0.4 percent in order to lower inflationary pressures. Surprises like these are the only things that have the potential to drive the Yen higher these days. BoJ Governor Fukui’s failure to signal an August rate hike has kept carry trades steady. Japanese markets are closed on Monday. The economic calendar is extremely light in the week ahead.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

11. Dollar continues record slide to euro following EU inflation report

http://www.newspress.com/Top/Article/article.jsp?Section=BUSINESS&ID=565052430375846913

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) - After a week that saw the dollar sink to an all-time low, the dollar resumed its slide against the euro as new figures showed European inflation holding steady.

The 13-nation euro bought $1.3793 in early afternoon trading in Europe, slightly more than the $1.3780 it bought in New York late Friday but still below the record $1.3813 it bought during trading on July 13.

The dollar's fall came after the European Union reported that the inflation in the 13 countries that use the euro stood at 1.9 percent in June, unchanged from May. That was within the guidelines set forth by the European Central Bank of just under 2 percent. Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency, said the highest prices were in education costs, tobacco, alcohol, hotels and restaurants.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

13. Yen Near Record Low Versus Euro as Investors Add to Carry Trade

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aHJynB2JlI24&refer=currency

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- The yen traded near a record low against the euro on speculation investors will keep borrowing the currency to buy higher-yielding assets in so-called carry trades.

The currency weakened against New Zealand's dollar as an inflation report in that nation increased prospects the central bank will raise its benchmark 8 percent rate, which compares with Japan's 0.5 percent. It also fell to the lowest versus Australia's dollar since September 1991 as investors were lured to the country's 6.25 percent rate.

``There's no change in the carry trade trend and the bias for selling the yen,'' said Takashi Yamamoto, chief dealer of treasury at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking Corp. in Singapore. ``Interest rates will probably stay low.''

The yen traded at 168.00 per euro at 9:09 a.m. in London from 168.05 late in New York on July 13, when it reached a record low of 168.95. It was also at 121.88 to the dollar from 121.93. It may decline to 122.50 against the dollar and 168.50 per euro today, Yamamoto said. Trading may be less than usual because of a public holiday in Japan.

/...

[mojavekid]

26. Daily Pfennig 7/16/07: The View from Chuck's Easy Chair...

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1495

"I've viewed the latest sets of data and to quote my fave sportscaster of all time, the late great Jack Buck... I can't believe what I just saw! I know, you are quizzical right now, and saying, what? What did he just see? Ahhh... Grasshopper... I've just seen the color of the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence report... Unbelievable! While I know that a large part of Consumer Confidence is derived from stock market performance, which in my opinion is irrational at the very least... One would think that Consumer Confidence would be linked in some say to spending, wouldn't you? I mean, here's Joe Six-Pack out there spending money on a new patio set, he feels pretty darn good about it too!

"Unfortunately, I guess spending doesn't play well with Consumer Confidence because the U. of Michigan report showed Consumer Confidence soaring, while U.S. Retail Sales showed a .9% drop in June, much lower than expected...

"What these people are smoking to be confident is beyond me... But then maybe they have been smoking what San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen has been blowing... Once again a Fed Head is shrugging off the problems of the subprime mortgage meltdown... San Francisco Fed president Yellen late Thursday commented that she “doubts subprime mortgage woes will have a big impact” on the overall economy. Yeah... And I've got some swamp land for sale....

more...

[ozymandius]

7. Oil above $74 amid North Sea worries

LONDON - Oil prices rose Monday amid concerns over production in the North Sea. OPEC also said it expected refinery problems to affect the market next year.

August Brent rose 9 cents to $77.66 a barrel, retreating from an 11-month high of $78 earlier in the day on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery gained 16 cents to $74.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. The contract had risen $1.43 to settle at $73.93 on Friday, after rising as high as $74 earlier in the session. The last time a front-month contract traded or closed over $74 was Aug. 11 last year.

Crude oil prices in New York have followed recent gains in Europe's Brent crude, which has been rising since Thursday when Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips said the closure of the North Sea's Central Area Transmission System gas pipeline would reduce oil production at two fields.

Brent traders worry that some oil supplies might be cut, analysts said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Eugene]

17. U.S. oil may hit $95 if OPEC does not hike output: Goldman

Source: Reuters

U.S. oil may hit $95 if OPEC does not hike output: Goldman
Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:10AM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. crude price could top $90 a
barrel this autumn and hit $95 by the end of the year if
OPEC keeps oil production capped at current levels,
Goldman Sachs said in a report issued on Monday.

U.S. oil prices have risen to near $74 per barrel, driven
this month by higher demand and lower supplies, the
report said, pointed out that such fundamentals could
tighten further unless key OPEC members hike output.

"We believe an increase in Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti and
UAE (United Arab Emirate) production by the end of the
summer is critical to avoid prices spiking above $90 a
barrel this autumn," the report stated.

-snip-

"Our estimates show that keeping OPEC production at
current levels and assuming normal weather this coming
winter, total petroleum inventories would fall by over
150 million barrels or 6.5 percent by the end of the
year, which would push prices to $95 a barrel without
a demand response," the report forecast.

-snip-

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1633723820070716

[ozymandius]

32. Just a reminder about production

The OPEC cartel cut production in February to maintain a floor under prices. Back then the floor was considered $60/bbl. This is one time that I agree with Goldman Sachs.

[ozymandius]

8. My apologies for being tardy.

I massively overslept again. Thanks for your patience.

I am dashing out the door now. Back in an hour.

Ozy :hi:

[AnneD]

27. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. A belated GuDay to ya mates. I had to take my daughter to her volunteer job at the radio station and Hubby to the Intercontinental Airport. He is going to Germany for some concerts and lessons and then he will go to India to be with his family until mid September. My guess is that he will be back before then-but we'll see.

Well LadyBird was laid to a well deserved rest-and we will miss her dearly. This has been a bad year for Texas women...Nelly Connelly, Molly Ivins, Ann Richards and now LadyBird. Bet they are running things in heaven right now and poor St. Peter is pulling his hair out (or laughing so hard his sides hurt-I can't decide which.)

This summer has been a whirlwind of activity. I will be taking a stock seminar later this week - reading technical charts etc. I am looking foreword to it. I am simultaneously learn to use a Mac-which has proved easier and more fun than when I tried to do it years ago. I have it programed to do windows too. I guess you might say my laptop swings both way-OH DEAR.:rofl:

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

34. Hi AnneD. I've missed you here.

But I'm glad you're having a nice summer, like the rest of your family. They seem to be having a blast.

Have fun with the seminar. That's a great idea.

Ozy :hi:

[Ghost Dog]

9. Asian Stocks Fall; Samsung Electronics Slides

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aFH2qbJ.GVsA&refer=asia

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell, dragging a regional benchmark from a record, as a slide in technology shares countered gains in energy-related companies.

Samsung Electronics Co., which ended last week at a 15-month high, plunged the most in three years after memory-chip prices fell. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the world's largest contract electronics manufacturer, slid the most in four months after a newspaper said it may buy a stake in LG.Philips LCD Co.

``Tech stocks are pulling back because people are taking profit on the recent jumps, not because there's a problem with their fundamentals,'' said Jeon Jeong Woo, who manages $540 million at Daehan Investment Trust Management Co. in Seoul.

PTT Pcl, Thailand's largest energy company, and Keppel Corp., the world's No. 1 builder of oil rigs, rose as crude prices traded near an 11-month high.

Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan, the markets with the highest technology weightings in Asia, both fell for the first time in three days. India, Singapore and Thailand were the only regional markets to post gains. Japan is shut for a holiday.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index lost 0.4 percent, to 494.33 at 3:06 p.m. in Hong Kong, after ending last week at a high.

China Steel Corp., Taiwan's largest steelmaker, jumped on speculation industry takeovers will gather pace, while Rio Tinto Group fell after brokerages including Citigroup Inc. cut their ratings on the shares.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

10. Euro zone inflation unchanged at 1.9pc

http://www.businessworld.ie/livenews.htm?a=1774676;s=rollingnews.htm

The euro zone's harmonised index of consumer prices rose a final 1.9pc year-on-year in June, unchanged from a provisional estimate, EU statistics office Eurostat said today.

The HICP also rose 1.9pc year-on-year in May.

Month-on-month, the HICP rose 0.1pc in June.

Economists had forecast a rise of 0.1pc from May and a year-on-year increase of 1.9pc.

Eurostat said prices excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco -- its favoured measure of core inflation -- were up 1.9pc year-on-year in June, unchanged from the May rate of increase.

Prices excluding energy and unprocessed food also rose 1.9pc year-on-year, unchanged from the increase in May. This measure of core inflation is closely watched by the European Central Bank.

[Ghost Dog]

14. (Mrning trade) European shares firm as ABN Amro takeover battle hots up

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070716/afp/070716114352eco.html

LONDON (AFP) - Europe's main stock markets mainly rose as investors seized on the latest developments in the multi-billion-euro takeover battle for control of Dutch lender ABN Amro, dealers said Monday.

They also kept an eye on surging oil prices, as the price of London's Brent North Sea crude surged close to a record high above 78 dollars per barrel.

The British capital's FTSE 100 index of leading shares eased 0.05 percent to 6,713.60 points, while in Paris the CAC 40 gained 0.03 percent to 6,119.60 and Frankfurt's DAX 30 added 0.19 percent to 8,108.00.

The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index of top eurozone shares advanced 0.23 percent to 4,553.10 points.

...

In Asia on Monday, Hong Kong's key Hang Seng Index closed down 0.63 percent at 22,953.94 points on profit-taking after a sharp fall on China bourses with the key Index slipping below the 23,000 level, dealers said.

/...

Funny how mainland China stock market news seems to be being buried, these days...

[Ghost Dog]

24. Banks help bourses book small gains

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B1e64f868%2D3ad8%2D4182%2D9461%2Db6e0f772cf8d%7D

European equities closed with modest gains on Monday amid gains in the financials sector. ABN Amro rose 3.6 per cent to €37.15 as Royal Bank of Scotland, down 0.6 per cent to 636.7p, sweetened the terms of its proposed bid for the Dutch lender. While RBS kept its offer at €38.4-a-share, the bank raised the cash element of its €71.1bn proposal from 79 pert cent to 93 per cent. The RBS move puts further pressure on Barclays agreed €35-a-share merger with ABN. Barclays rose 0.6 per cent to 728.5p on hopes it would be taken off should the RBS bid succeed. Other bank stocks also gained, with Alliance & Leicester up 2.5 per cent at £11.59 and Sociéte Générale 2.1 per cent higher at €138.75. Overall, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 closed up 0.2 per cent, at 1,630.4, whilst the Xetra Dax 30 in Frankfurt was 0.2 per cent higher at 8,105.7 with Paris’ CAC 40 0.1 per cent firmer at 6,125.6 and the FTSE 100 0.3 per cent lower at 6,697.7, weighed down by weaker resources stocks.

[Ghost Dog]

25. FTSE undermined by lacklustre Lonmin

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7Bdb76f3c1%2D2905%2D422c%2D941a%2D0b824197c27b%7D

London equities fell on Monday after an unexpectedly poor third quarter trading update from Lonmin knocked the mining sector. The FTSE 100 closed 0.3 per cent lower at 6,697.7 with the FTSE 250 down 0.1 per cent at 11,917.3 with weakness in mid-cap oil stocks. Lonmin said it had hit problems at its Marikana mine in South Africa resulting in a cut in its forecast of platinum production for the full year to between 920,000 and 940,000 ounces of saleable platinum in concentrate. Earlier in the year it had predicted it would have between 980,000 and 1m ounces to sell. Shares in the company fell 6.8 per cent to 3965p.

[AnneD]

28. It seems to be.....

buried here too. It is so much rah rah. The only thing they can't disguise is the RE market-they just give it a light spin and fluff dry.

[DemReadingDU]

12. bonddad - Fed Reserve: Making A Huge Mistake With Inflation

Regarding inflation, the Fed focuses on core rather than total inflation.

Core inflation is inflation less food and energy. The central idea to targeting core inflation is sound. Food and energy prices are far more volatile than core prices. Because of this volatility, food and energy prices could skew inflation higher during a shorter-term volatile price period (say 3-6 months), thereby misrepresenting the actual inflation picture. However, suppose the economy had a prolonged period of energy and food price inflation that was not seasonal, but instead was part of a longer term trend of increasing prices. Then focusing on core prices would misrepresent the underlying inflation picture by stating that inflation was too low. This is exactly the situation going on right now in the US economy. Food and energy prices are increasing at higher rates than core inflation. But the Fed is not looking at these areas of increasing prices when they set interest rate policy. As a result, the Fed is letting daily expenses of food and energy eat away at the small pay gains for most Americans.

more...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/7/16/74122/4345

[jwirr]

22. I am no expert is this forum but it seems to me that is why they can

get by with saying that the economy is doing just fine. They are not looking at the issues that effect most of us.

[Ghost Dog]

15. Danger signals on road to global prosperity

http://money.guardian.co.uk/businessnews/story/0,,-2127113,00.html
Larry Elliott, economics editor
Monday July 16, 2007
The Guardian

<snip...>

Things get a lot more interesting though, when it starts to dawn on voters that this model is not working, and to the extent that it does deliver it does so for the billionaire rather than the ordinary Joe. Take financial liberalisation. The case for removing all the shackles from capital was that the constraints imposed after the second world war not only led to inefficiency but were also an intolerable attack on freedom. Everything would move a bit faster and a bit more smoothly if these constraints were removed.

All sounds entirely sensible, doesn't it? By the same token, though, it is an intolerable attack on liberty to force a teenager to pass a driving test before being allowed out on to a public road. What's more, traffic would move more smoothly if we abolished speed limits. Get right down to it, and government has no part in this process at all. We should let people sit behind the wheel of a car whenever they want. We should leave it to the self-regulation of the motor manufacturers to restrict the speed of the vehicles put on the road. And we should rely on the common sense of motorists to know just how safe it is to drive.

Well, there might be some libertarian ultras who would support such an idea, but most of us can tell the difference between freedom to drive and licence to kill. Any period of self-restraint would be short-lived and before long we would all be driving like Mr Toad. There would be an almighty car crash, after which there would be urgent calls for the old controls to be brought back.

Now take a look at the financial system. It is easier than ever to get credit. People who really should not be allowed to borrow are being bombarded with offers of loans. Mortgage providers offer unheard multiples of income to first-time buyers because the speculation unleashed by too much easy money has made it impossible to get on the property ladder any other way. Free movement of capital internationally means speculators can borrow money where interest rates are low and invest in riskier assets somewhere else in the world.

So what do you think? A more efficient system for apportioning capital? A system that has removed all the pettifogging restrictions on liberty? A car crash waiting to happen? Or, in the case of the sub-prime crisis in the United States, a car crash that is already happening, albeit in slow motion?

What's happened in the US is an example of how the economy has been pulled out of shape to suit one particular interest group. Over the past few decades the New Deal constraints that were put on big finance after the Wall Street crash of 1929 were systematically dismantled. As a result, when after 9/11 the Federal Reserve flooded the American financial system with cheap money the banks went wild.

Interest-free periods

Once they had lent all they could to those who were good risks, attention switched to the more financially vulnerable. It was obvious many of these people would have trouble paying back their loans, but they were hooked by interest-free periods, teaser rates, no-deposit loans and mortgages where no verification of income was required.

The argument was that this was philanthropy on the part of the banks; they were allowing the poor to get on the property ladder. That's right, said Robert Kuttner, editor of the American Prospect, but only in the sense that the mafia makes loans available to America's small business community.

Loans were extended to millions of people who were never going to pay them back, but the assumption was that this was not really all that risky because house prices would continue to rise. If the borrower couldn't keep up the monthly repayments, they could sell their property at a profit.

So confident was Wall Street that it was on to a winner that it looked for another way of making money out of the sub-prime sector. It took thousands of these loans, bundled them up and sold them as bonds. These bonds were then sliced up into tranches of varying degrees of risk of default, which were then traded on the derivatives market. Hedge funds picked up the riskier portions of the mortgage-based securities because the profits were potentially bigger. As, of course, were the losses.

As interest rates have risen, this get-rich-quick scheme looks a lot less clever. Dodgy mortgage providers have collapsed, the cost of credit has risen, putting a brake on the economy, and Wall Street's rocket scientists have discovered that the market value of their derivatives is a heck of a lot lower than it should be according to their mathematical models.

All the ingredients are in place for a full-scale financial economic crisis in the US. Should that occur, there would not only be a thumping great recession but a backlash against Wall Street of the kind not seen for 70 years. That would provide a fascinating backdrop to next year's presidential election, with the Democrats, in particular, having to decide between populism or rule by elites (or unpopulism). In those circumstances, the excesses of big finance, trade policy and income inequality would all become live issues.

The New Olympians may need to watch their backs.

Full article at link...

[ozymandius]

16. 11:17 update

Looks like everybody gets another pony.

Dow 13,970.90 Up 63.65 (0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,710.38 Up 3.38 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,554.92 Up 2.42 (0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 5.091% Down 0.016
NYSE Volume 721,952,000
Nasdaq Volume 574,791,000

11:00 am : Even though market internals suggest otherwise, buyers continue to show their resolve and further prove that the market's underlying momentum still favors the bulls. Most notably has been a turnaround on the Nasdaq, led by further appreciation in bellwethers like Microsoft (MSFT 30.10 +0.28) and Dell (DELL 29.24 +0.42). Both stocks opened in negative territory but are now up 1.2% on average.

It is worth noting, though, that July historically marks the beginning of the worst four months of the year for the Nasdaq, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Just two weeks into the month, the tech-heavy Composite is up roughly 4.0% amid expectations the Technology sector, which is up 4.8% already this month, will be a significant contributor to aggregate earnings growth on the S&P 500. The Nasdaq's 12.2% year-to-advance outpaces the S&P 500's 2007 gain of 9.7% but has just been passed by the Dow, which is now up 12.4% to lead the majors. DJ30 +55.24 NASDAQ +2.93 SP500 +2.15 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1616/1200/474 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1686/1303/294 mln

10:30 am : The indices remain mixed but are trading at improved levels. The S&P 500 has joined the Dow above the flat line as the Financial sector (+0.2%) spiking higher and into positive territory breathes new life into today's action. As evidenced by the Nasdaq inching closer to breakeven, Technology turning the corner has also offered another leg of support.

Unfortunately for the bulls, both sectors are up only 0.2% and investors are still dealing with declines in Health Care, Energy, Discretionary, Staples, which collectively account for 42% of the total weighting on the S&P 500. DJ30 +33.19 NASDAQ -0.16 SP500 +0.50

[ozymandius]

20. updating blather

11:30 am : Onward and upward remains the driving mantra today as the market continues to show good resilience in the face of early consolidation attempts and oil prices recently hitting session highs near $74.50/bbl. The Dow still leads the way among the majors and is now within 22 points away from hitting the 14,000 milestone after breaching initial resistance near 13,960.

Growing anticipation that a number of banks and brokers will turn in better than feared results this week is giving the Financial sector (+0.5%) enough of a lift to push it back into the green for the year. Its influential leadership is the biggest reason behind the S&P 500 extending its reach into unchartered territory. DJ30 +71.05 NASDAQ +3.49 SP500 +2.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1628/1217/598 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1698/1334/388 mln

[ozymandius]

18. Wall Street cautious as earnings loom

Wall Street stocks were mixed at midmorning on Monday, with blue chips nosing further into record territory as investors awaited a swathe of earnings reports this week.

After the main indices ended last week in record territory, stock index futures were mixed before the cash market opened and at midmorning that tone continued to prevail.

Less than an hour after the opening bell, the S&P 500 index was down 0.1 per cent at 1,551.44. Among the main S&P sectors, telecom and industrial stocks were firmer, while energy and utiltiies were leading losses.

The Nasdaq Composite was 0.1 per cent lower at 2,703.22 .

Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.1 per cent higher at 13,927.08. The Dow had set a new intra-day record high of 13,938.06 and investors were waiting to see a number of companies in the index release their earnings this week.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20070716/bs_ft/fto071620071125094778

[ozymandius]

19. Hedge fund takes aim at Target

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Pershing Square Capital Management, a hedge fund headed by activist investor William Ackman, disclosed a sizeable stake in retailer Target Corp. in a Securities and Exchange Commission regulatory filing on Monday.

According to an SEC filing, the fund has acquired a 9.6 percent holding in Target, or about 82 million shares, of the No. 2 discount chain after Wal-Mart (Charts, Fortune 500).

Target currently has a total of 851.5 million shares outstanding.

Pershing Square Capital said in the filing that it believes Target offers "significant growth opportunities and the strongest operating management in the retail industry."

-cut-

So far this year, Target's stock is up 23 percent versus a 6.4 percent gain in Wal-Mart shares. Target stock trades at 12.8 times analysts' earnings estimates for this fiscal year versus 9.3 times for Wal-Mart.

Target's profits are expected to grow 14.7 percent, higher than the industry average, and better than the 12.3 percent annual growth for Wal-Mart over the same period.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/16/news/companies/target_pershing/index.htm?postversion=2007071611

[mojavekid]

21. Fleckenstein: Housing troubles begin to snowball

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/HousingTroublesBeginToSnowball.aspx

This week I'd like to describe approximately where I feel we are in the housing-ATM unwinding process.

That's not to imply that I think I know exactly what may happen next, but new clues have emerged since I wrote about the unwind a few weeks ago. They come to us via Standard & Poor's and Moody's, which last week announced potential or actual credit downgrades.

For readers who might not follow the bouncing ball of structured credit closely, let me explain why this is such a big deal.

Rejecting the hunky-dory story
To recap a long process: The housing market topped out in 2005, although until about six months ago, people continued to speculate in housing and use it as an ATM.

Those of us who felt we understood the speculation that had occurred believed quite strongly that once housing peaked, there would be real trouble for the economy and, by extension, the asset classes impacted by a housing bust.

more...

[mojavekid]

30. From the Mirage of a Middle-Class Life to the Slavery of Debt

http://www.alternet.org/workplace/49678/

America is very wealthy country, but one has to wonder how much of our wealth is in fact a chimera, spun of a consumerist ideal and given the appearance of solidity by a flood of easy credit? How much poverty and real economic pain is covered up by an endless succession of pay-day loans and EZ-finance rip-offs that eventually just bury people under mountains of debt from which they have little chance of digging themselves out.

Today's bankruptcy rate is ten times what it was during the Great Depression, foreclosures are at a 37-year high and the United States has a negative savings rate, yet we're told every day that the economy is going gangbusters.

George W. Bush often points out that more Americans own their own homes today than ever before. He doesn't mention that they also have less equity in those homes than ever before. Every day brings news of the potential scope of the emerging "sub-prime" loan scandal -- what Robert Kuttner called "deregulation's latest gift" -- and new indicators that the housing market that's driven so much of the economy for the past five years is a bubble that's begun to burst right before our eyes.

Compounding our personal debt problems are our representatives, equally profligate spenders who are just as happy to run up enormous budget deficits and who reflexively guarantee and subsidize trillions of dollars of new loans to already strapped American businesses and consumers.

more...

[ozymandius]

23. lunchtime check-in

12:10
Dow 13,976.83 Up 69.58 (0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,711.95 Up 4.95 (0.18%)
S&P 500 1,554.78 Up 2.28 (0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 5.076% Down 0.031
NYSE Volume 995,023,000
Nasdaq Volume 756,631,000

[TrogL]

29. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-06-15 Friday, June 15 0.936505 USD
2007-06-18 Monday, June 18 0.932836 USD
2007-06-19 Tuesday, June 19 0.940026 USD
2007-06-20 Wednesday, June 20 0.93932 USD
2007-06-21 Thursday, June 21 0.932227 USD
2007-06-22 Friday, June 22 0.93668 USD
2007-06-25 Monday, June 25 0.933532 USD
2007-06-26 Tuesday, June 26 0.935279 USD
2007-06-27 Wednesday, June 27 0.933184 USD
2007-06-28 Thursday, June 28 0.941088 USD
2007-06-29 Friday, June 29 0.94038 USD
2007-07-02 Monday, July 2 0.947598 USD
2007-07-03 Tuesday, July 3 0.94402 USD
2007-07-04 Wednesday, July 4 0.94402 USD
2007-07-05 Thursday, July 5 0.946342 USD
2007-07-06 Friday, July 6 0.954381 USD
2007-07-09 Monday, July 9 0.95429 USD
2007-07-10 Tuesday, July 10 0.95057 USD
2007-07-11 Wednesday, July 11 0.947239 USD
2007-07-12 Thursday, July 12 0.955384 USD
2007-07-13 Friday, July 13 0.954563 USD
2007-07-16 Monday, July 16 0.958773 USD

Current values

Loonie:

Last trade 0.9600 Change +0.0040 (+0.42%)
Previous Close 0.9552 Open 0.9573
Low 0.9556 High 0.9613


Other combinations:

AS.M07 AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 0.90815 +0.0022
RA.M07 EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 1.58370 -0.00875
HY.M07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 115.61 -0.50
GB.M07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Sep (NYBOT) 0.6785 -0.0017
EP.M07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 1.4447 -0.00013
EJ.M07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 166.95 -0.30
EU.M07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Sep (NYBOT) 1.38190 +0.00035


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at .9683 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .9313 would confirm that a top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to higher opening in early-day session trading.

Analysis

The blather's just the AI talkin' shit. The real story is the loonie breaking the $0.96 psychological barrier. This puts the people saying the loonie was going to sit between 0.93 and 0.95 to shame. With them out of the picture, I could see everybody cheerleading parity by September (as already predicted).

The main blather here (http://quotes.ino.com/) notes both the yen and sterling being stalled, and the other numbers above show the loonie actually sinking slightly against other currencies except the Euro, so I can only assume something really bad happened to the greenback.

I'm going on vacation to England from last week of July to 2nd week of August so I'm going to start getting interested, for perfectly selfish reasons, to the Sterling and Euro.

[TrogL]

31. More blather

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Dollar_on_the_Ropes_1184562306661.html

The bank of Canada took rates 25 basis points higher to 4.50 percent on the week’s meeting, but uncertainty over future monetary policy tightening left the currency slightly weaker in the moments following the report. In its post-hike communiqué, the bank gave mixed signals on overall outlook for growth and inflation. It said that Core CPI would set a peak of 3.0 percent through 2007—a full percentage point above official targets at 2.0. This would arguably call for an extended policy tightening cycle, but the bank said that only “some modest further increases in the overnight rate may be required to bring inflation back to target over the medium term.” BoC Governor David Dodge made explicit reference to the domestic currency’s strength as a reason that inflation would moderate, likewise saying the Loonie’s multi-decade highs would limit economic expansion through the period. Such overt reference to the exchange rate spooked many USDCAD shorts and forced a strong retracement on the day. The net effect was far less pronounced, however, as the pair set fresh lows on stronger-than-expected Canadian Housing figures.

Markets are left to wonder whether the CAD may stage a stronger retracement of overextended gains. A relatively moderate update to the Bank of Canada’s April Monetary Policy Report suggests that markets have priced in too high a probability of rates at 5.00 percent through December. The strong Loonie may in fact be its own undoing, with its pronounced appreciation limiting the central bank’s motivation to raise rates aggressively to combat inflation. Combined with overextended USDCAD short positioning, the currency pair may be setting up for a short-term retracement.

The coming week of economic data will be comparatively light, but a key Consumer Price Index report promises strong volatility through Wednesday trade. Central bank officials forecast that the Core CPI rate will reach a peak of 3.0 percent through year’s end, with analysts forecasting a 2.6 percent print through June. Indeed, the bar has been set relatively high for the price index and this may in fact leave risks to the downside for the Canadian dollar. A positive surprise has, to some extent, been priced in following the BoC’s aggressive forecasts. Should CPI come in below forecasts or—worse still—below May’s results, we could see a sharp CAD sell-off (USDCAD rally) on the data. Otherwise, markets are left to trade off of developments in the US and a mid-tier Canadian Leading Indicators news release.

[ozymandius]

33. closing up shop

Money sought illusory safety today.

Dow 13,950.98 Up 43.73 (0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,697.33 Down 9.67 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,549.52 Down 2.98 (0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 5.041% Down 0.066
NYSE Volume 2,688,072,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,820,538,000

4:20 pm : The major averages finished mixed Monday as investors juggled encouraging economic data and more deal making with renewed subprime worries that left valuations vulnerable.

A session after General Electric (GE 40.12 +0.62) posted an encouraging report, the Industrial sector (+0.7%) got an additional lift today after Eaton (ETN 100.87 +2.77) handily topped Wall Street expectations and boosted its full-year outlook.

That news, coupled with further evidence of the continued recovery in manufacturing activity (i.e. NY Empire State Index), lent some reassurance that Dow components and fellow Industrial sector constituents Caterpillar (CAT 85.90 +0.77), United Technologies (UTX 76.67 1.67), and Honeywell (HON 60.60 +0.46) will also post strong results later this week. All three closing at new 52-week highs, alongside a 2.4% surge in shares of Verizon (VZ 42.76 1.00) following dismissed reports that Vodafone (VOD 33.15 -0.37) was contemplating a $160 bln buyout, helped lift the Dow to another record close.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, however, were not as fortunate. Coming off its record finish, the absence of leadership in the Financial sector (-0.3%) removed much of the support needed to extend recent gains. Just after 1:00 ET, the sector rolled over after the benchmark ABX subprime mortgage "BBB-" 07-1 index tumbling to a fresh record low renewed fears surrounding possible spillover of the subprime fallout.

Treasuries, in contrast, caught a flight-to-quality bid. That pushed the yield on the 10-year note to 5.04%, further steepening the spread between the 2-year and 10-year notes to over 17 basis points. While that typically bodes well for the likes of banks and brokers, many of which are scheduled to report quarterly results this week, the means by which bonds rallied acted as an offset.

Profit taking throughout the increasingly influential Energy sector (-1.3%), even though oil prices closed modestly higher, was also noteworthy as its downturn removed some of the leadership that contributed to the S&P 500's run into record territory last week and ahead of this week's deluge of earnings.

As a reminder, the S&P 500 index surged 4.3% in April during the heavy period of first quarter reports, which was completely out of proportion to actual earnings growth. Just two weeks into the month of July, and only one week into the second quarter earnings season, the S&P 500 is up 3.3%. BTK -0.9% DJ30 +43.73 DJTA +0.2% DJUA -1.6% DOT -0.6% NASDAQ -9.67 NQ100 -0.2% R2K -0.9% SOX +0.2% SP400 -0.7% SP500 -2.98 XOI -1.7% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1994/1034/1.79 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2211/1045/1.37 bln