STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday July 18

[ozymandius]

Source: DU

Wednesday July 18, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 554 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2385 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2097 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2058
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 17, 2007

Dow... 13,971.55 +20.57 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq... 2,712.29 +14.96 (+0.55%)
S&P 500... 1,549.37 -0.15 (-0.01%)
Gold future... 665.90 -0.40 (-0.06%)
30-Year Bond 5.16% +0.04 (+0.68%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.08% +0.04 (+0.73%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: DU

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Market WrapUp

Unforgettable
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

Perhaps if we were trying to hum a few bars to describe the current love affair investors have with global equities, the great love song “Unforgettable” by Nat King Cole would come to mind. “Unforgettable, in every way, Unforgettable, that’s how you’ll stay,” as this advance in equity markets around the world will likely come to an “Unforgettable” end in the weeks ahead. In fact, perhaps an even better song title would be “Unsustainable” -- as that’s what this is. Indeed, “Unsustainable” encapsulates the way we view the runaway advance that has been on going for these last 12 months, starting at the low in late July of 2006, and on a cyclical basis, dating back to the major lows of 2002. Perhaps nowhere in the world has become more “Unsustainable” than the Pacific Rim, which we thought deserved the lead spot in today’s article. A positively unyielding advance, the PACRIM has been on a tear as illustrated by the continuing strong gains seen in 2007, building upon the gains recorded in 2006.

-chart-

Yes, we know that South East Asia will likely be the center of growth for the coming decade, and that wealth is rising in the East. On the secular case for Asia, we find no argument, --‘no cause for pause,’ as the portrait of a fast growing Asia will likely dominate the economic landscape for years to come. Yet, being long time students of the market, we are also aware of the fact that historically, no trend has ever moved in a straight line, as the pattern of human progress has always been detailed in the vein of two steps forward and one step back. At the moment, we wonder whether markets have simply moved for too long a period in one direction, and whether they are now becoming overdue for that one step back.

-cut-

So what about other Asian markets? Are they also historically extended? Our short answer is: You Bet They Are! with some implications present for a downside reversal sometime fairly soon. Let’s take a moment and look at South Korea, where the KOSPI Index has been blowing off in a classic parabolic curve. Since the mid-March low of 1375.84, the KOSPI Index has advanced to a recent value of 1784.44, a gain of over 400 points in four months, or 29.69%. That annualizes out to a gain of nearly 90% per year. Clearly, nothing can sustain that type of advance without a corrective breather. In our view, that “breather” is likely dead ahead, as the market has now gone a hefty 70 trading days where it has remained above its 50 day moving average. Over the last 10 years, shown below, we have only moved beyond 70 days on four prior occasions, each one of which was followed by a substantial pull-back and/or consolidation.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

2. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.509 Change -0.032 (-0.04%)

US Dollar, Treasuries Hinge On US CPI, Testimony By Fed's Bernanke

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/cross_markets_data_reaction/US_Dollar__Treasuries_Hinge_On_1184710625736.html

US CPI (YoY) (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Expected: 2.6%
Previous: 2.7%

US CPI Core (YoY) (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
Expected: 2.2%
Previous: 2.2%

How Will The Markets React?

Wednesday represents a huge day of event risk for US asset markets, as traders will face not only critical inflation data, but also Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the House panel regarding monetary policy. Looking at the economic data on hand, the headline measure of CPI is anticipated to ease back to an annualized rate of 2.6 percent in June while core CPI is estimated to hold at a 13-month low of 2.2 percent. A reading in line with expectations is not likely to elicit much reaction from the markets, as traders will then wait for Bernanke’s testimony starting at 13:30 GMT. There is some speculation that the Federal Reserve Chairman will remain hawkish, and after the last FOMC statement said that “a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated,” he will likely focus on the fact that core CPI is still uncomfortably high for the central bank. On the other hand, any sort of pick up in inflation readings will immediately lead the markets to consider that not only will rates surely stay on hold throughout the year, but that there is also a risk that they will be increased from current levels. Thus, the scenario tomorrow may have more to do with how hawkish the results are rather than if they will be hawkish at all. There is, of course, the outside chance that Bernanke will take a decidedly more neutral or dovish stance. Nevertheless, such a surprising action is highly unlikely and the risks for Fed inflation biases remain to the upside.

...more...

Chinese Yuan Advances Against US Dollar On Speculation Of Further Flexibility

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/top_fx_market_movers/Chinese_Yuan_Advances_Against_US_1184705060864.html

Chinese Yuan Advances Against US Dollar On Speculation Of Further Flexibility
The Chinese yuan gained for another session against the US dollar, falling against the pound and Euro, as speculation loomed over the possibility of a flexible currency regime in the near future. The sentiment was founded on forecasts of this week’s GDP release, set to show that the Chinese economy expanded at an 11 percent pace, the quickest in three quarters. Incidentally, the survey would spark further notions that policy makers will desire slightly more appreciation in the underlying yuan in order to curb the seemingly overheated economy as well as consumer prices currently running at 3.4 percent. As a result, the Chinese yuan gained slightly on the session, with the exchange rate falling to 7.5629.

Chinese Stocks Rocket Higher
Rising the most in a week, stocks in Shanghai rocketed higher in the overnight, advancing by 2.5 percent on the CSI 300 Index. Leading the charge higher were shares in Shenzhen Development Bank Co. after stating profits that more than doubled. Attributed to the exploding pace of lending in the country, first half profit is expected to have surged by almost 150 percent. The improvement led US based investment bank Goldman Sachs to increase its recommendation on the stock, which added 9.8 percent on the day to 29.15 yuan. Subsequently, with other banking sector stocks up for the day, the benchmark rose 2.5 percent to close at 3,789.65.

US Requests Repeal Of Chinese Import Ban
In response to a recently implemented ban on US meat products, authorities have directed focus to a previous notice requesting that the ban on seven of eleven plants cited in Chinese reports be repealed. The letter, dated July 5th and prior to the announcement of the ban, additionally requests the scientific test results that were done in order to implement the restrictive policy by Chinese officials over the weekend. As the episode lingers on, further developments will likely culminate up to the scheduled visit by officials within the next three months in Washington. Meeting with US trade representatives, officials from Beijing will be visiting on the grounds of an amicable resolution. However, optimism in the near term is thin at best as officials wait for the USDA’s evaluation of the testing process, judging whether or not China was in breach of trade obligations.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

11. Yen Rebounds as Bear Stearns Losses Restrain Carry Trades

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a.Hw_MAE6tqM&refer=asia

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose against the dollar and the euro as losses on Bear Stearns Cos. hedge funds caused investors to scale back purchases of riskier assets with money borrowed in Japan.

The Japanese yen rose against all 16 most-actively traded currencies as investors pared so-called carry trades. The dollar touched a record low against the euro earlier after Bear Stearns told investors in two of its hedge funds they will get little if any money back after losses related to subprime mortgages.

``The yen is rising on an unwinding in carry trades,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``Bear Stearns latest woes are sparking risk aversion. This isn't just about Bear Stearns. Other hedge funds may be suffering just as much.''

Against the dollar, the yen rose to 121.98 as of 10:42 a.m. in London, from 122.34 late yesterday. It also rose against the euro, to 168.20 from 168.59. The dollar declined to an all-time low of $1.3833 against the euro from $1.3781 in New York yesterday, and last traded at $1.3789.

/...

Now more-or-less unrebounded, I see...

[mojavekid]

24. Daily Pfennig 7/18/07: Mixed Bag of Data...

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1499

Good day... We got a mixed bag of data yesterday as producer prices, the NAHB Housing index, and ABC consumer confidence numbers all came in lower than expected but were offset by a sharp rise in the TIC flows. Industrial production and capacity utilization both came in as expected. The dollar was still trending off throughout the day and fell sharply in Asian trading. The dollar index fell to the lowest since 1992 on speculation slowing U.S. economic growth will stop the Fed from raising rates. I will have more on the dollar index in a bit, first let's look at the numbers released yesterday.

Producer prices unexpectedly fell last month, with the overall number falling .2% for the month and rising just 3.3% year on year. Industrial production showed a slight increase of .5% in June, compared to a revised drop of .1% in May. Capacity utilization increased to 81.7% from 81.4% in May. These figures support the Fed's opinion that the U.S. economy is recovering from the slowest growth in four years without a surge in inflation that would require higher interest rates. The dollar trended off on the thought that the rate spread the U.S. has enjoyed over the past few years will continue to narrow. The sell-off in the US$ was somewhat tempered as traders wait to see if the CPI numbers will show a similar drop this morning.

There was no surprise in the housing numbers as confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell to the lowest level in 16 years, signaling the housing market will continue to tumble. The National Assoc. of Home Builders sentiment index declined to 24 this month, the lowest since January 1991, from 28 in June. Readings of less than 50 mean most respondents view conditions as poor.

more...

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

8:30 AM CPI Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.1%
Prior 0.7%

8:30 AM Core CPI Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.1%

8:30 AM Housing Starts Jun
Briefing Forecast 1460K
Market Expects 1450K
Prior 1474K

8:30 AM Building Permits Jun
Briefing Forecast 1500K
Market Expects 1490K
Prior 1520K

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/13
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -1462K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

7. 8:30 reports:

01. U.S. real weekly earnings up 1.3% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

02. U.S. June CPI medical care prices rise 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

03. U.S. June single-family housing starts fall 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

04. U.S. June CPI owners equivalent rent rises 0.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

05. U.S. June building permits down 25.2% year-over-year
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

06. U.S. June CPI food prices rise 0.5%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

07. U.S. June housing starts down 19.4% year-over-year
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

08. U.S. June building permits fall 7.5% to 1.406 million pace
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

09. U.S. June CPI energy prices fall 0.5%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

10. U.S. June housing starts rise 2.3% to 1.467 million pace
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

12. U.S. CPI up 2.7% in past year; core CPI up 2.2%
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

13. U.S. June core CPI up 0.2% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

14. U.S. June CPI up 0.2% vs. 0.1% expected
8:30 AM ET, Jul 18, 2007 - 1 minute ago

[UpInArms]

4. Southwest Airlines Offering Buyouts to 8,700 Employees

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/18/business/18air.html?ei=5088&en=56db852c087575ef&ex=1342411200&adxnnl=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1184760151-IpBMSanSao3yR+XSwLRNcg

DALLAS, July 17 (AP) — Southwest Airlines is offering buyouts to about one-fourth of its employees in an effort to cut costs as the discount carrier heads into a period of expected slower growth.

Southwest, based in Dallas, said Tuesday it is offering $25,000 in cash as well as health and dental benefits to 8,700 flight attendants, baggage handlers and other employees. The offer was not extended to pilots and mechanics.

The workers have until Aug. 10 to accept the offers, which began showing up in their mailboxes on Monday, said Brandy King, a Southwest spokeswoman. She said the company did not have a target number of job or cost reductions it hoped to achieve.

This is Southwest’s second recent round of buyouts. More than 1,000 employees took buyouts in 2004, Ms. King said. The company currently has about 33,000 workers, she said.

Southwest — which reports second-quarter financial results today — faces rising fuel costs and contract negotiations that could increase its labor costs.

For several years, Southwest saved money by hedging fuel purchases with options to buy fuel at set prices. But those arrangements are losing their effectiveness. Last year, the company spent $2.14 billion on fuel — its second-largest expense after labor — or 60 percent more than in 2005.

...more...

[ozymandius]

5. Oil prices mixed in European trading

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices were mixed Wednesday ahead of the release of U.S. government fuel stocks data that were expected to show the country's supplies of crude fell last week.

Despite that prognosis, forecasts that the report would show an increase in gasoline supplies — a key focus of trader interest during the high-demand U.S. driving season — weighed on Nymex benchmark crude prices, even as Brent traded higher on London's ICE Futures exchange.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery slipped 4 cents to $73.98 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. The contract ended 13 cents lower at $74.02 a barrel Tuesday.

Brent rose 20 cents to $75.72.

-cut-

Refinery utilization is expected to rise by an average 0.5 percentage point to 90.7 percent of operating capacity, topping the key 90 percent level for the third straight week. With refinery activity predicted to increase, most analysts expect crude stocks to fall by 760,000 barrels.

Gasoline inventories are seen rising by an average 560,000 barrels, and distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, are expected to increase by 780,000 barrels.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

6. Altria income drops 18.3 percent

NEW YORK - Altria Group Inc., owner of the Philip Morris cigarette companies, said Wednesday that second-quarter income fell more than 18 percent but also reported a rise in profit from continuing operations and revenue.

The company lowered its full-year earnings guidance, citing higher than expected asset impairment and exit costs. The company announced in June that it was closing a North Carolina plant as part of an effort to separate its domestic and international cigarette manufacturing operations. The measure could position Altria for a break-up anticipated by industry analysts.

Net income for the second quarter dropped 18.3 percent to $2.22 billion, or $1.05 a share, from $2.71 billion, or $1.29 per share, in the same period last year.

Excluding one-time costs, Altria said earnings per share were up 5 percent to $1.05. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected earnings per share of $1.13 per share for the quarter. Those estimates usually do not take into account one-time charges.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070718/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_altria

[DemReadingDU]

8. bonddad: $10 Billion Hedge Fund Now WORTHLESS

A Bear Stearns Cos. hedge fund that made leveraged bets in the subprime mortgage market is worth nearly nothing, according to two people briefed by the investment bank.

Investors have been waiting for Bear to update them on the High-Grade Structured Credit Enhanced Leveraged Fund and a larger, less leveraged fund called the High-Grade Structured Credit Fund.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the larger High-Grade Structured Credit Fund is worth roughly 9% of its value at the end of April.

more...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/7/18/72427/2979

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bear-credit-hedge-funds-almost/story.aspx?guid=%7B4465B0D7%2DF76F%2D4735%2DBE8A%2DFC6038AFA93C%7D

[UpInArms]

14. WSJ:Two Bear Funds Nearly Worthless, Investors Told -Sources

(a hat-tip to A HERETIC I AM for the original thread on this article - http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1366559 )

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200707171734DOWJONESDJONLINE000700_FORTUNE5.htm

Weeks after the meltdown of two prominent Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC) hedge funds that bet heavily on the market for risky home loans, the brokerage has told the funds' investors that the portfolios' assets are almost worthless, according to people familiar with the matter.

The assets in Bear's more levered fund, the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, are worth virtually nothing, according to people familiar with the matter. The assets in the other larger, less-levered fund are worth roughly 9% of the value since the end of April, these people said. The April valuations weren't immediately available but in March, before their sharp losses, the enhanced leverage fund had $638 million in investor money, while the other fund had $925 million.

The two funds have been in the spotlight for weeks after suffering heavy losses in the subprime market. Late last month, Bear helped stabilize the less- levered fund with a $1.6 billion secured loan; the enhanced fund began trying to unwind its remaining $1.1 billion in debt.

(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)

Bear disclosed this information to investors earlier Tuesday and is expected to make a statement Tuesday evening, these people said. A spokeswoman for Bear didn't return calls for comment.

...more...

this one just might cause a meltdown

[UpInArms]

23. Subprime Uncertainty Fans Out

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB118470713201469384.html?mod=home_whats_news_us

said yesterday, in more evidence of the turmoil in this corner of the bond market.

Bear said one of its funds was worth nothing and another worth less than a 10th of its value from a few months ago after its subprime trades went bad, according to a letter Bear circulated and to people briefed by the firm. The Wall Street investment bank -- known for its bond-trading savvy -- has had to put up $1.6 billion in rescue financing.

<snip>

Wall Street firms yesterday circulated at least a dozen lists of subprime-related bonds they planned to hastily sell to investors. Some of the assets were from a fund managed by Basis Capital, a large hedge-fund manager based in Australia, and were put on the block by Citigroup Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., according to people familiar with the matter.

Basis Yield Alpha Fund last week informed its investors it had lost around 14% in June. Another fund, called Basis Pac-Rim Fund, was down 9.2% that month. Basis said the declines came after bond dealers abruptly marked down the value of the securities, which it said were "otherwise fundamentally sound."

...more...

[AnneD]

30. Morning Marketeers......

:donut: and lurkers. You can't have that much money evaporate and not have it felt. I wonder, UIA-instead of the meltdown, it might be an avalanche. I was surprised it didn't cause more of a stir when it first made the news. either way, it will be a bumpy ride once the impact is digested.

I have not listened much to the market news for the last few days-I have been having some much needed rest. I did go with my daughter to the Galleria yesterday. I just laughed my butt off looking at all the designer shops. The trend is to have as few pieces of merchandise in the store as possible-I guess to give then that scarce, exclusive feel. If I had to live on commission from sales on the contents in the store, I'd surely starve. I won't even tell you what was written on most of the price tags-but it equaled or exceeded most average middle class families monthly salaries. I didn't see too many bags and most folks were in the food court.

My daughter and I did eat in a nice restaurant there and enjoyed that. We had some pasta and tried some truffle oil on it. We really enjoyed the rich woodsy taste. Not something I would want every day-but very tasty, like a richly flavoured mushroom. We love mushrooms in this family.

My stock market seminar will start tomorrow, I think we will have a great 3 days-esp if they do it in real time.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[mojavekid]

22. Bloomberg: Corporate Bond Risk Soars to 2-Year High on Bear Stearns Losses

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a9_dric31w5o&refer=bond

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- The risk of owning corporate bonds soared to the highest in two years in Europe after Bear Stearns Cos. said investors in two U.S. subprime hedge funds will get little or no money back, credit-default swap prices show.

Contracts on 10 million euros ($13.8 million) of debt included in Europe's iTraxx Crossover Series 7 Index jumped as much as 36,000 euros to 324,000 euros, according to Deutsche Bank AG. The risk premium is the highest since 2005 when General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. had their ratings cut to high risk, high-yield.

Bear Stearns in New York told investors yesterday there is ``effectively no value left'' in one hedge fund and ``very little'' in the other because of a collapse in the value of AAA rated securities used to bet on subprime mortgages. Moody's Investors Service said it may cut the ratings on $318 million of so-called Alt A mortgages, which are made to borrowers with better credit histories than subprime home loans.

``It feels like it did two years ago,'' after GM's downgrade, said Axel Pothoff, who oversees high-yield bonds in Munich for Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's biggest bond fund. ``Because of the subprime problems in the U.S., the whole story has another dimension.''

snip...

``This indicates we really do have a valuation issue,'' said Jochen Felsenheimer, a credit strategist at UniCredit SpA in Munich. ``If people are forced to revalue their positions, the change might not just be from 100 cents on the dollar to 99 cents but a whole lot more than that.''

more...

[Ghost Dog]

9. Asian Stocks Decline for 3rd Day; Canon Drops on Yen, BHP Falls

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=am25mQmlOhZk&refer=asia

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for a third day, the longest losing streak in two months, on concern losses at a Bear Stearns Cos. hedge fund will prompt investors to favor government bonds over equities.

Canon Inc., the world's largest maker of digital cameras, and Nintendo Co. paced the drop. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. led technology stocks lower after results from Intel Corp., the world's biggest chipmaker, raised speculation profitability will decline.

``Much of the concern is that investors will get scared, lock in their gains and put their money under their pillows,'' said Jason Chong, who helps manage the equivalent of $600 million at UOB-OSK Management Sdn. in Kuala Lumpur.

BHP Billiton Ltd. led a slide among mining companies after copper prices fell. South Korea's Posco slid as some investors shrugged off its highest quarterly profit in two years and took advantage of the stock's 25 percent gain this month to sell.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index lost 0.7 percent to 158.01 at 3:16 p.m. in Tokyo, taking its three-day drop to 0.9 percent, the longest slide since the four days to May 18. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 1.1 percent. All Asian markets fell except China, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

South Korea's Kospi index, which resumed trading after a one-day holiday, slipped 1 percent. Korea Exchange Bank advanced after a U.K. newspaper reported yesterday that HSBC Holdings Plc is interested in buying the lender.

Japan's Honda Motor Co. fell after the company said production may be affected by an earthquake-related shutdown at one of its component suppliers.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

10. Japan Stocks Drop, Led by Exporters on High Yen, Quake Fallout

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aKBuAH6BwlfE&refer=japan

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks fell, led by exporters including Canon Inc. and Nintendo Co. on concern yen gains versus the dollar will erode the value of their U.S. sales.

Automakers such as Honda Motor Co. also fell after reports that an earthquake-related shutdown at Riken Corp., which has a 70 percent share of the sealant market for transmissions as well as a 40 percent share for engine piston rings, will have an impact on production.

``Exporters are not only being affected by the currency move today, but also by concern that problems with auto parts makers in the region hit by the quake will curb production,'' said Hiroyoshi Nakagawa, who helps look after about $1 billion in Asian equities at Societe Generale Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 201.69 or 1.1 percent, to 18,015.58 at the close of trading in Tokyo. The broader Topix Index slid 19.46, or 1.1 percent, to 1758.65. Both gauges dropped for the fifth time in six days.

Tokyo Electric Power Co. led declines by power producers on speculation damage caused to one of the company's nuclear plants during the July 16 earthquake will lead the government to order increased spending on protective measures.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

12. TEPCO shares dip but investors hope for a rebound

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070718:MTFH80306_2007-07-18_08-33-54_T360391&type=comktNews&rpc=44

TOKYO, July 18 (Reuters) - Shares in Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501.T: Quote, NEWS , Research) fell 4 percent on Wednesday, their biggest drop in five months, on concern the shutdown of the world's biggest nuclear power plant after a strong earthquake could add to costs.

But some investors say the impact of Monday's one-time natural disaster on the Japanese power monopoly's overall business would be minimal, and that the stock price is likely to bounce back.

TEPCO, Asia's largest power producer, has been ordered by regulators to keep its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant closed until its safety can be confirmed. The closure of the entire facility could cost TEPCO about 37-38 billion yen ($304-312 million) per month, according to analysts at Nomura Securities.

On Tuesday, Mizuho Securities cut its estimates for TEPCO's operating profit by 10 percent to 520 billion yen for 2007/08, citing the impact of the plant shutdown.

That is below the company's profit expectation of 530 billion yen, and the market consensus of 549.5 billion yen based on a poll of 12 analysts surveyed by Reuters Estimates.

But investors such as Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager of Ichiyoshi Investment Management in Tokyo, expect TEPCO's share price to rebound as economic growth remains stable and strong demand is expected going into the peak summer season.

"There are some unclear factors such as the total costs on repairs or inspections and the timeframe of the reactor shutdown," Akino said. "But the overall business environment for TEPCO is strong, so I think today's decline is temporary, and possibly a strategic one for some investors."

TEPCO shares lost 4 percent to 3,600 yen, shedding 195 billion yen from its market value. The daily trading volume reached 13 million, more than triple the average over the past 30 days, according to Reuters data.

The company said late on Tuesday it had found some 50 problems at the Niigata plant following the earthquake, including radiation leaks.

TEPCO on Wednesday said it had underreported the amount of radiation in contaminated water that leaked into the ocean.

/..

[Ghost Dog]

13. Nuke plant may sit on fault that caused Niigata quake

http://home.kyodo.co.jp/modules/fstStory/index.php?storyid=326207
TOKYO, July 18 KYODO (I apologise for quoting in full).

The fault line that caused Monday's magnitude 6.8 earthquake may extend right beneath the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power station in Niigata Prefecture, the world's largest nuclear power plant complex, an analysis of aftershock data by the Japan Meteorological Agency showed Wednesday.

A public relations official at Tokyo Electric Power Co., which runs the power station, said, ''We did not assume an earthquake of this magnitude at the time of designing the nuclear power plant.''

''After looking at aftershock location data, we have come to realize a fault lies right below the nuclear power plant,'' the official said.

The nuclear power station is designed to withstand an earthquake caused by an unknown active fault up to a magnitude of 6.5.

An increase of 0.2 in magnitude translates into a roughly twofold increase in energy released. With the latest quake having registered a magnitude of 6.8, it is clear that the assumption made about the strength of a possible earthquake at the time the power station was designed was not sufficient to ensure safety.

A fire, radioactivity leaks and dozens of other problems were reported after the quake at the station, which has seven reactors and capacity to generate a combined 8.21 million kilowatts of power, making it the world's largest nuclear power station.

The undersea focus of the quake was around 9 kilometers northeast of the nuclear power plant and some 17 km underground. Aftershocks have been observed in a 15 km-wide, 30 km-long strip southwest of the epicenter.

Some aftershocks including the largest, a magnitude 5.8 quake, were focused in land areas.

Given that aftershocks are caused by parts of the fault that did not move in the initial major seismic movement, the fault that caused Monday's quake is thus likely to have stretched out along the aftershock region.

The fault line is believed to be descending underground from a Sea of Japan area toward the shore.

Past maritime geological surveys by the government-affiliated National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology had shown terrain believed to be a fault line lying around 15 kilometers west of the focus of Monday's quake further off the coast in the Sea of Japan.

In 2005, the Tokyo High court rejected a lawsuit by local residents seeking to revoke a state permit on the installation of the No. 1 reactor at the power station.

The court rejected the plaintiffs' argument that an active fault exists around the site of the station, saying that what they claimed to be an active fault did not even amount to a fault and could not cause a quake.
==Kyodo

[Buttercup McToots]

15. $80.34

:eyes:

[mojavekid]

16. That was quite a drop last night,

down around 80.15

The Cavalry has arrived...


-mojavekid

[Buttercup McToots]

17. $80.30

:think:

[DemReadingDU]

19. 80.23 at 11am

:eyes:

[mojavekid]

18. Marketwatch: Gold futures gain, lifted by overall dollar weakness

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-bounce-back-boosted/story.aspx?guid=%7B4DCA88BA%2DA349%2D4C1D%2D95E8%2DF391895751A5%7D&siteid=moren%20

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures gained Wednesday morning, as persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar buoyed demand for the precious metal and as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke began his testimony to a congressional committee.
Gold for August delivery rose $1.80 to $667.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Other metals prices traded mostly higher.
Gold futures fell 40 cents an ounce on Tuesday. Read more.
"The tone has been far more bullish this morning," said James Moore, analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
"Gold's strength overnight and this morning seems to be primarily due to the dollar's fall," said Mark O'Byrne, director at Gold & Silver Investments Ltd., in a morning note.
Another catalyst was investors' funds moving into gold in safe-haven buying.
"Worries about subprime loans were reinforced after Bear Stearns said that two of its hedge funds that have invested in these loans were 'almost worthless,' " O'Byrne said. See full Bear Stearns story.
The latest indications of hedge-fund troubles have the effect of "increasing speculation that investors are losing faith in the greenback," Moore said in a research note.
The British pound touched a fresh 26-year high against the dollar Wednesday, but the greenback traded little changed vs. the euro and yen. See Currencies.
Traders are also focusing on the first of two days of testimony that Bernanke is presenting before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
The Fed chief said Wednesday that core inflation should edge lower through 2008, but he also said that he sees risks of slower growth and higher inflation.

more...

[roamer65]

20. Looks like the currency traders are making a run at the 78-80 resistance level...

on the USD index right now. If they break that resistance, we're in for a full-blown dollar crisis. Gold, the anti-dollar, is up significantly as well. Some are starting to run for the exits.

[Buttercup McToots]

21. $80.13

Wow...lowest I have ever seen...:wow:

[Ghost Dog]

25. European stocks slide on subprime concerns

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B7fbdf943%2D0dce%2D4c8e%2Db127%2D13ae780beb75%7D

European equity markets sank on Wednesday after subprime concerns resurfaced following the announcement by Bear Stearns that two of its hedge funds, both backed by subprime loans, were ”virtually worthless”. By the close of trade, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 was down 1.22 per cent to 1,602.97, while Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax fell 1.8 per cent to 7,893.61, the CAC 40 in Paris shed 1.69 per cent to 5,995.97 and London’s FTSE 100 lost 1.38 per cent to 6,567.1.

[Ghost Dog]

26. London ends lower as Tate & Lyle drags

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B885c189c%2D9cf4%2D499d%2D9467%2D446363226d6d%7D

London shares traded sharply lower on Wednesday with Tate & Lyle making heavy losses after posting disappointing numbers. The sugar and sweeteners maker reported flat first-quarter profits, sending the group’s shares down by 2.75 per cent to 586.7p. In UK economic news, the minutes to the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee meeting in July showed the rate-setting panel voted 6-3 to raise the key bank rate to 5.75 per cent. The FTSE 100 fell 92 points, or 1.38 per cent, to 6,567.1 by the close while the mid-cap FTSE 250 shed 0.64 per cent to 11,726.0, a decline of 75 points.

[Ghost Dog]

28. FTSE falls more than 1 percent on U.S. worries

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070718:MTFH93269_2007-07-18_17-04-38_L18902838&type=comktNews&rpc=44

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Britain's top share index fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday, as downbeat comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hit global equities already nervous about the U.S. subprime market crisis.

Bernanke said the U.S. housing slump had yet to hit bottom and said the Fed had cut its forecasts for economic growth for this year and next year, in his semi-annual testimony to the U.S. Congress.

The comments also hit the U.S. currency and traders said dollar weakness could be partly to blame for losses in UK mining shares since most mining business is in dollars.

The FTSE 100 index .FTSE closed 1.4 percent lower, or down 92 points at 6,567.1, with miners knocking almost 16 points off the index.

Lonmin (LMI.L: Quote, Profile , Research) was amongst the bigger losers down 3.6 percent, having fallen for most of the week after the world's third-biggest platinum producer cut its full-year sales forecast on Monday.

Elsewhere in the sector, Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote, Profile , Research) fell 3.9 percent, Xstrata (XTA.L: Quote, Profile , Research) shed 1.6 percent and BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile , Research) also gave up 2.8 percent.

Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile , Research), which last week agreed to buy rival Alcan (AL.TO: Quote, Profile , Research) for $38.1 billion, also shed 1 percent. The global miner reported record second-quarter iron ore output, helping offset mixed coal and copper figures as it ramps up production to match further rises in industrial metal prices. Continued...

/...

[Ghost Dog]

27. European shares dragged down by US subprime, euro

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070718:MTFH92601_2007-07-18_16-35-40_L18895257&type=comktNews&rpc=44

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - European stocks fell for a second day in a row on Wednesday, hit by continuing concern about the extent of the crisis in the U.S. subprime mortgage market and by the euro's ascent to fresh highs.

Banks and oil companies were the biggest negative influences on the broader equities market, yet merger activity was never far from the fore, this time with Britain's Imperial Tobacco (IMT.L: Quote, Profile , Research) agreeing to buy Franco-Spanish rival Altadis (ALT.MC: Quote, Profile , Research).

The FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top European shares ended at 1,602.97 points, down 1.2 percent

"M&A is putting a floor under how far the market will drop rather than drive the market to new valuation highs. I think interest rates rising as well also limits the scope for the private-equity people," said Bernard McAllinden, an investment strategist for NCB Stockbrokers in Dublin.

"The figures coming out of the housing sector in the U.S. are still slowing, we haven't seen the bottom yet so notions that we have hit stability and even recovery are not coming through," he said.

Altadis shares gained 0.8 percent after Imperial Tobacco said it had agreed on a deal to buy the group, pushing the British company's shares up by 1.5 percent.

Further weighing on the broader market was U.S. data that showed no real relief in core consumer price pressures in June, making an equities-supportive cut in U.S. interest rates less likely, and a warning from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the troubles of the U.S. housing market would worsen. Continued...

/...

[TrogL]

29. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-06-18 Monday, June 18 0.932836 USD
2007-06-19 Tuesday, June 19 0.940026 USD
2007-06-20 Wednesday, June 20 0.93932 USD
2007-06-21 Thursday, June 21 0.932227 USD
2007-06-22 Friday, June 22 0.93668 USD
2007-06-25 Monday, June 25 0.933532 USD
2007-06-26 Tuesday, June 26 0.935279 USD
2007-06-27 Wednesday, June 27 0.933184 USD
2007-06-28 Thursday, June 28 0.941088 USD
2007-06-29 Friday, June 29 0.94038 USD
2007-07-02 Monday, July 2 0.947598 USD
2007-07-03 Tuesday, July 3 0.94402 USD
2007-07-04 Wednesday, July 4 0.94402 USD
2007-07-05 Thursday, July 5 0.946342 USD
2007-07-06 Friday, July 6 0.954381 USD
2007-07-09 Monday, July 9 0.95429 USD
2007-07-10 Tuesday, July 10 0.95057 USD
2007-07-11 Wednesday, July 11 0.947239 USD
2007-07-12 Thursday, July 12 0.955384 USD
2007-07-13 Friday, July 13 0.954563 USD
2007-07-16 Monday, July 16 0.958773 USD
2007-07-17 Tuesday, July 17 0.958313 USD
2007-07-18 Wednesday, July 18 0.958313 (?) USD

Current values

Loonie:

Last trade 0.9596 Change -0.0002 (-0.02%)
Previous Close 0.9589 Open 0.9560
Low 0.9560 High 0.9610


Other combinations:

AS.M07 AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 0.907.55 -0.0050
RA.M07 EURO/AUSTRALIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 1.58590 -0.00125
HY.M07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 116.475 +0.49
GB.M07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Sep (NYBOT) 0.67610 -0.00265
EP.M07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Sep (NYBOT) 1.4275 -0.0030
EJ.M07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 167.20 -0.53
EU.M07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Sep (NYBOT) 1.38125 +0.00010


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at .9683 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at .9436 would confirm that a top has been posted. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening in early-day session trading.

Analysis

As you can see, it opened high and immediately took off. It hit .0002 off the record and there's lots of trading day left.

The Ozzie's still on the rise with apparently no end in sight.

I'm going on vacation to England from last week of July to 2nd week of August so I'm going to start getting interested, for perfectly selfish reasons, to the Sterling and Euro. Today, things look good for me.

[mojavekid]

31. At the Close,

DOW 13,918.22 -53.33 (.38%)
NASDAQ 2,699.49 -12.80 (.47%)
S&P 1,546.17 -3.20 (.21%)
10-Yr Bond 5.0100% 0.0680
NYSE Volume 3,648,612,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,268,714,000


Sorry for the lack of polish...just the facts! ("caus I don't know how to do the colors..!)

[UpInArms]

32. great post mojavekid!

Ozy has contacted me and has connectivity issues - will be posting the open in the morning and those numbers are a part of tomorrow's first post!

a big thank you!

see you tomorrow-

here's the blather:


A day after the Dow hit a new milestone, its five-day winning streak was snapped Wednesday as more subprime concerns and disappointing reports in the tech sector gave investors a reason to take some money off the table.

A renewed wave of bargain hunting interest late in the session, however, closed the major averages well off their lows. The Dow was down as much as 148 points but more than halved its intraday decline over the final 30 minutes of trading.

Dow component Intel (INTC 25.06 -1.27) kicked things off in dire fashion last night as its 44% jump in Q2 profits was offset by weaker than expected margin forecasts. Fellow tech bellwether Yahoo! (YHOO 26.20 -1.33) cutting its full-year guidance also weighed heavily on the influential sector and bolstered concerns that Tech may not be as significant a contributor to aggregate earnings on the S&P 500 as recently thought.

As evidenced by a 1.2% sell-off in the more heavily weighted Financial sector, the resurfacing of the subprime fallout lending further evidence that the apparent meltdown is likely to become an industry wide crisis took an added toll on sentiment. Bear Stearns (BSC 139.34 -0.57) reportedly telling investors that its two troubled hedge funds are nearly worthless prompted analyst downgrades on five investment banks (BSC, JPM, MS, GS, and LEH). JP Morgan Chase (JPM 48.74 -1.18) was already weak after saying credit-loss provisions in Q2 tripled.

Hopes that Bernanke might say something to calm the market's nerves were also dashed. The Fed Chairman did say in his testimony before Congress that growth should pickup up next year and that inflation is likely to recede. However, with subprime back in the spotlight and acting as a huge overhang, Bernanke saying that conditions tied to subprime have "deteriorated significantly," and that delinquencies and foreclosures are likely to get worse before they get better, exacerbated the fears of such troubles spilling over into the rest of the market.

Inconclusive inflation data (e.g. CPI) and the monthly housing data suggesting there still isn't much likelihood of even a decent rebound in housing starts over the coming months also kept buyers sidelined.

On a positive note, the yield on the 10-year note slipping below the psychologically important 5.00% level intraday was encouraging. The way in which Treasury yields tumbled, however, acted as more of an offset to a welcome decline in borrowing costs. Bonds caught a flight-to-quality bid amid more hedge fund risk and the Fed shaving a 1/4% off its 2007 and 2006 GDP growth forecasts.

Of the other five sectors losing ground, none held as much as influence as the much sharper declines in Financials and Technology. Since they collectively account for more than 36% to the total weighting on the S&P 500, sell-offs in both sectors eliminated much of the leadership that recently helped the Dow and S&P 500 hit historic highs.

Energy, in contrast, attracted buyers and turned in a noticeable performance. Nonetheless, the sector's 2.1% advance came at the expense of oil prices surging 1.4% to over $75.00/bbl. While Energy's leadership was noteworthy, crude for August delivery closing at its highest level in 11 months was hardly what investors needed to see after Bernanke said sizable increases in energy prices have boosted overall inflation and eroded real wages.

Also noteworthy were reports that KKR is mulling a $24 bln bid for Macy's (M 43.09 +3.06). However, such takeover speculation has been around for months and, while confirmation of a deal would lend further proof that liquidity remains prevalent, JP Morgan's CEO today saying demand for leveraged buyout debt is drying up left some thinking otherwise. DJ30 -53.33 NASDAQ -12.80 SP500 -3.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1897/1134/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2113/1148/1.69 bln