Oil Industry Offers Sobering Outlook on Supply

[sabra]

Source: NYTimes

WASHINGTON, July 18 — It started with a simple question by Samuel W. Bodman, the energy secretary: “What does the future hold for oil and natural gas supply?”

The query was made in October 2005 in a one-page letter sent to Lee Raymond, the former chairman of Exxon Mobil and head of the National Petroleum Council, a federal advisory group representing the oil industry.

After nearly two years, Mr. Raymond has finally delivered his answer.

The result is a colossal 476-page study entitled “Facing the Hard Truths About Energy” that involved 350 participants, suggestions from over 1,000 people, submissions by 19 foreign governments from Australia to Saudi Arabia, and dozens of subcommittees.

The report, which was made public in Washington today, was billed as one of the most comprehensive analyses of the world’s energy challenge. In answering Mr. Bodman’s question, it also provides a sobering picture of the energy problem facing the United States and the world.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/18/business/18cnd-oil.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

[Donnachaidh]

1. And of course the oil industry will be 100% TRUTHFUL right?

err... :eyes:

[pitohui]

2. always a reason to claim their product is rare and valuable and thus should be high priced

it's a load of crap, nationalize this mess, i'm tired of these jokers, they made the biggest profit they ever made after hurricane katrina because they GOUGED us

[mrcheerful]

4. Can you say DeBeers and diamonds?

[mrcheerful]

3. Of course they will be 100%, the same way they are truthful about

refineries being closed due to EPA pressures. More of the blame game without saying or hinting at real facts, such as buying up oil refineries during the 80's then closing down all but a handful, then saying they need special gasoline in certain states, limiting the amount of finished products. Don't even get me started on the rat bastards.

[Javaman]

5. And here is the one paragraph from the article that explains the mood of the report...

"Given that the report reflects the views of the oil industry, some of its conclusions would seem hardly surprising — for example, in dismissing predictions from so-called peak oil theorists that the world’s oil deposits are on the decline. Quite the contrary, the industry’s view is that the world’s resources remain abundant."

[ohio2007]

6. And with that...they raise the price we pay as the newest excuse

for price gouging

[Barrett808]

7. Looks like the US industry is still (publicly) in denial about Peak, but the recent IEA report...

...essentially acknowledged the imminent peak in oil production and placed it around 2011:

If it smells like peak oil, it probably is
http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2007/07/09/iea_report/index.html

The first sentence of the executive summary of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) influential "Medium Term Oil Market Report," released today, states the broad outlines of the problem baldly: "Despite four years of high oil prices, this report sees increasing market tightness beyond 2010, with OPEC spare capacity declining to minimal levels by 2012."

[MatrixEscape]

8. Oil companys aside ...

Statistically, the output on major fields, world-wide has been gradually decreasing while demand is gradually increasing.

I am convinced that, (unless the theory of *abiogenic oil turns out to be true) peak oil is a matter of when, not if. The quesiton is still academic as to when. It looks like have already entered that phase. That is, especially with the increase in demand by China and other countries that are developing Western life-styles.

Of course, petroleum is the blood of life as we know it since it is used for wide-range of commodities, not just as fuel.

*
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin