STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday July 19

[UpInArms]

Source: DU

Thursday July 19, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 553 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2386 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2098 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2059
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES


AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 18, 2007

Dow... 13,918.22 -53.33 (.38%)
Nasdaq... 2,699.49 -12.80 (.47%)
S&P 500... 1,546.17 -3.20 (.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.0100% 0.0680
Gold future... 672.10





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie



PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions


(UIA - just filling in for Ozy!)

Read more: DU

[fasttense]

1. Thanks UIA, we armature economists love this post.

[UpInArms]

3. Ozy's internet connection died

last night - he's going to be (hopefully) back on line later today

:hi:

[Warpy]

29. OK, that sucks

You know you're an internet junkie when you keep a cheap dialup in case your DSL modem dies. That's me.

Thanks for stepping in!

[Kolesar]

39. Is that amateur or arm chair economists?

Tip of the hat to UIA!

[UpInArms]

44. Hiya TheBorealAvenger!

Glad to see you here :hi:

[UpInArms]

2. Today's Market WrapUp

Retail Reality Check
Stock Market Melt Up Last Thursday Misplaced
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

The markets vaulted north last Thursday and took nearly everyone by surprise. The top news story from Yahoo Finance on the day entitled, “Stocks Surge on Retail Sales Reports,” had the following explanation for the markets move:

Wall Street soared Thursday, propelling the Standard & Poor's 500 index and Dow Jones industrials to record highs as bright spots among generally sluggish retail sales allowed investors to toss aside concerns about the health of the economy.

But investors, heartened by signs of a happy and spending consumer, clearly decided to put some money on the table. Though retail sales generally appeared to be crimped last month by higher gasoline prices and a tepid housing market, and the outlook for the coming months was difficult to ascertain, the overall reading wasn't as dour as some investors expected.

Several reports beat Street expectations -- notably that of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, which posted a better-than-expected 2.4 percent jump in sales at stores open at least a year.

read more at link

[UpInArms]

Today's Reports:

Jul 19 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 07/14
Briefing Forecast 315K
Market Expects 310K
Prior 308K

Jul 19 10:00 AM
Leading Indicators Jun
Briefing Forecase -0.3%
Market Expects -0.1%
Prior 0.3%

Jul 19 12:00 PM
Philadelphia Fed Jul
Briefing Forecast 13.0
Market Expects 14.0
Prior 18.0

Jul 19 2:00 PM
FOMC Minutes Jun 28

[UpInArms]

14. Initial Claims in at 301,000

05. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 20,000 to 2.57 mln
8:30 AM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

06. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise to 3-month high
8:30 AM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

07. U.S. 4-week average initial claims fall to 312,000
8:30 AM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

08. U.S. first-time jobless claims fall to 2-month low
8:30 AM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

09. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 8,000 to 301,000
8:30 AM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

30. July Leading Indicators fall 0.3%

04. Leading indicators point to softer growth: Conference Board
10:00 AM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 10 minutes ago

05. U.S. June leading economic indicators fall 0.3%
10:00 AM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 10 minutes ago

[Ghost Dog]

35. U.S. Economic Growth Slowing

http://www.manufacturing.net/article.aspx?id=144690
Manufacturing.Net - July 19, 2007

NEW YORK (AP) - U.S. economic growth is likely to slow in coming months as the ongoing slump in the housing industry takes a deeper toll on businesses and consumers, a gauge of future business activity showed Thursday.

The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators fell 0.3 percent in June, higher than the 0.1 percent drop analysts were expecting and more than reversing last month's revised growth of 0.2 percent.

The Conference Board report, designed to forecast economic activity over the next three to six months, tracks 10 economic indicators.

The five negative contributors, beginning with the largest, were building permits, unemployment claims, consumer expectations, vendor performance and interest rate spread.

The positive contributors, starting with the largest, were weekly manufacturing hours, new orders for non-defense capital goods and stock prices. Manufacturers' orders for consumer goods and materials and real money supply held steady in June.

With the latest report, the cumulative change in the index over the past six months has dropped 0.7 percent.

In his midyear economic report to Congress Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that if the housing slump turns out worse than expected, consumer spending may drop and weaken overall economic growth.

Bernanke also said growth for the year will be slower than the central bank projected in February.

Another risk to the economy is if energy prices continue to rise sharply, Bernanke said. That could raise prices of goods and services, spreading inflation through the economy.

/..

[UpInArms]

37. July Philly Fed in at 9.2 - down from 18 in June (sucking pondwater)

1. U.S. July Philly Fed 9.2 vs. 15.0 expected
12:02 PM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

43. FOMC - don't worry be happy!

01. FOMC not worried about slowdown in consumer spending
2:00 PM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 1 minute ago

02. FOMC members less concerned about slower growth
2:00 PM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 1 minute ago

03. FOMC staff trims core price forecast slightly
2:00 PM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 1 minute ago

04. FOMC says core price improvement due to transitory factors
2:00 PM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 1 minute ago

05. Some FOMC members want inflation expectations to drop
2:00 PM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 1 minute ago

06. Several on FOMC worried about inflation expectations in June
2:00 PM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 1 minute ago

[Buttercup McToots]

4. Market Watch

Market Watch: Signal or Noise?
7/18/2007 4:24:38 PM


Stock markets closed lower today, Wednesday, July 18, 2007

by Alan Hall

There is much to be said for living in the moment. It's the best way to enjoy your time; focus on the task at hand; immerse yourself in an activity you love or explore new things you want to learn. But to fully know the present and have a chance of anticipating the future, you must also study the past.

The turn of the century coincided with an epic top in the stock market in Real (Dow/gold) terms. The quality of our social interaction changed markedly at that peak, and that sudden about-face is worth committing to memory.

"Since then, the U.S. has gotten involved in a war; terrorism has increased dramatically; the President’s approval ratings have reached Nixonian levels (a new low this week of 29 percent); Congress’ popularity has plumbed record depths (24 percent in June); the conciliatory and apologetic tone of the dialogue among religious leaders has morphed into a tone of confrontation (radical Islam and the latest headline: “Other Christian denominations are not true churches, Pope reasserts,” 7/11 AJC); populations are demanding that authorities control immigration; governments are proposing protectionist measures; home prices have fallen for the longest time since the Great Depression; and bank credit instruments are under severe price pressure due to fears of default. These changes are not random, and they are not causing social mood to change. They are the result of a change in social mood at Grand Supercycle degree." (Elliott Wave Theorist, July 2007.)

The global urge-to-merge is repellant in critical areas. China has responded to foreign criticism of the safety of its products with import bans and a high-profile execution. A fearful U.S. has suddenly realized the FDA cannot inspect the flood of imported food. The World Trade Organization is struggling to salvage stalled trade talks.

Russia flexes oiled muscles and distances itself from the west. It has abandoned arms treaties and stated its intent to claim the North Pole and a large part of the Artic. Britain has expelled Russian diplomats over a radiation-poisoning murder. Despite all this, the markets continue upward.

Separating signal from noise is the tough part of discerning reality. Noise might be the intangible shuffling of $415 trillion in derivatives churning in complex global trading agreements. (Bloomberg) Or, noise might be the whispering flood of information that passed through the Internet last year, which had a total physical weight estimated at 0.00004 of one ounce. (Harper's Index)

To my knowledge, no one has yet weighed a derivative.

The social reality of the all-too-real war is a real signal. A new assassination game, "StreetWars," is gaining popularity in major cities. People pay for photos and profiles of other players, hunt them down over a three-week period, and shoot them with water pistols. The last man standing dry wins.

We think it pays to keep an eye on true signals, such as the evolving character of social action.

[Ghost Dog]

16. Yes: signs of the times. But the "all-too-real war" (in Iraq) is not war.

It is an occupation (following illegal invasion) of a sovereign state facing a largely indigenous insurgency.

[Ghost Dog]

5. Asian Stocks Rise for First Day in Four

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=awY29g95PFmo&refer=asia

July 19 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose for the first time in four days, led by BHP Billiton Ltd. and Zijin Mining Group Co., after copper, gold and oil prices gained.

JFE Holdings Inc., Japan's second-largest steelmaker, and Posco, South Korea's biggest, climbed after UBS AG said slowing global production is ``supportive'' of steel prices. China, the world's No. 1 consumer of the alloy, today reported its economy grew in the second quarter at the fastest pace in 12 years.

``Companies are benefiting from tight supply and growing demand,'' said Masayuki Kubota, who helps oversee $2.1 billion in assets at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo. ``The global economy and corporate profits are being driven by growing demand in emerging markets such as China.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index advanced 0.6 percent to 158.69 at 7:11 p.m. in Tokyo. Nine of the 10 industry groups rose on the measure, which had fallen 1.1 percent in the previous three days. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 0.6 percent to 18,116.57.

In China, the CSI 300 Index was little changed. Reports also showed inflation accelerated the most in almost three years, adding pressure on the government to raise interest rates.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

11. China's Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in 12 Years

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=araJdCuBhd4M&refer=asia

July 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew at the fastest pace in 12 years in the second quarter and inflation surged, prompting speculation the government will raise interest rates and push the currency higher to cool growth.

Gross domestic product expanded 11.9 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today, exceeding all estimates of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Inflation climbed to 4.4 percent in June, the fastest since September 2004, breaching the central bank's 3 percent target for a fourth month.

Growth was powered by investment in factories and real estate that the government has been unable to cool with two rate increases this year and restrictions on bank lending. Allowing the yuan to strengthen may also help quell tensions with the U.S. and Europe, which say China's record exports reflect the unfair advantage of an artificially low currency.

``Accelerating inflation and a rebound in fixed-asset investment heighten the risk of overheating,'' said Wang Qing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. ``Demand in key sectors is not outstripping supply yet, but the government is concerned.'' Wang expects an interest-rate increase ``any time from now.''

The yuan rose to as much as 7.5615 against the dollar, the highest since China abandoned a decade-old peg to the dollar in July 2005. It traded at 7.5632 at 5:34 p.m. in Shanghai, from 7.5639 before the report was released. The currency has climbed 9.4 percent since the link ended.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

25. Steel and finance bolster Tokyo shares

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/08424fca-35a6-11dc-bb16-0000779fd2ac.html

Sharp rises in the shares of steelmakers, consumer finance companies and other sectors more than made up for further declines in property stocks, pushing the Japanese market moderately higher on Thursday.

The Nikkei 225 finished up 0.6 per cent at 18,116.57. The broader Topix rose 0.5 per cent to 1,768.00.

JFE Holdings, one of Japan’s biggest steelmakers, reached an all-time high before ending 4.4 per cent higher at Y8,270 on growing optimism about its first-quarter earnings, which are to be announced at the end of the month. Other steelmakers also gained on similar sentiments. Nippon Steel, Japan’s largest steelmaker, rose 4.7 per cent to Y919.

Consumer finance companies gained after reports that Promise and Sanyo Shinpan Finance were poised to agree to a merger. Promise had risen 5.9 per cent to Y3,790 and Sanyo Shinpan was up 12.1 per cent at Y3,600 when the Tokyo Stock Exchange halted trading of their shares. Fellow consumer finance company Aiful leapt 11.2 per cent to Y3,480.

These gains were balanced by further falls in the property sector, which slid 1 per cent on fears of overvaluation. Mitsubishi Estate slid 0.9 per cent to Y3,180. NTT Urban Development slumped 1.4 per cent to Y217,000.

Tokyo Electric Power continued its rapid descent in the wake of Monday’s earthquake in northwestern Japan, which damaged one of its nuclear plants, the world’s largest. Tepco dropped 5.6 per cent to Y3,400 after Nomura Securities downgraded it to “reduce” from “neutral” on worries the present shutdown of the plant could be prolonged.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

27. Chinese city banks make debut splash

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/8720176c-35da-11dc-ad42-0000779fd2ac.html

Chinese stock market investors grabbed their first opportunity to buy into the country’s municipal banks, sending the shares of Bank of Nanjing up 72 per cent in Shanghai and the Bank of Ningbo up 141 in Shenzhen on their trading debuts.

The first-day price jumps were in line with other recent Chinese initial public offerings and are a tradition in the country’s highly speculative and opaque capital markets.

”This is a very typical A-share phenomenon,” said Jerry Lou, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong, referring to Rmb-denominated, domestically traded shares. ”Chinese investors like smaller stocks because they have more potential to go up quickly which shows you just how speculative the market is.”

...

At least 20 more city commercial banks are expected to follow suit in the next two years. ”I won’t be surprised to see lots of city commercial banks coming to market as they can get a good price and many of them are looking to recapitalise,” Mr Lou said.

Each of the newly listed banks has introduced strategic foreign investors to help them reform their risk management and restructure to meet growing competition from foreign banks. French bank BNP Paribas owns around 13 per cent of Bank of Nanjing and Singapore’s Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp has a stake in Bank of Ningbo.

By Thursday’s close, Nanjing Bank’s shares were trading at a price to earnings ratio of 47 times estimated 2007 earnings while Ningbo Bank’s PE ratio was 65 times forecast earnings.

IPOs in China are always priced cheaply to guarantee a successful debut and profits for early stage institutional investors, many of which are generally state-owned enterprises.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

6. European stocks recover

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070719/afp/070719115450eco.html

LONDON (AFP) - Europe's main stock markets rebounded on Thursday in the wake of a recovery for Japanese share prices.

London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares rose 0.91 percent to 6,626.60 points in early afternoon trading.

In Frankfurt the DAX 30 gained 1.10 percent to 7,980.69 points, the Paris CAC 40 climbed 0.85 percent to 6,047.12 points and the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index of top eurozone shares increased by 0.83 percent to 4,509.36.

The euro stood at 1.3810 dollars, close to its record high of 1.3833, reached on Wednesday.

European stock markets had been rattled on Wednesday, mirroring losses on Wall Street, after US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said a housing slump in the US would drag on growth into next year.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

50. Bourses extend gains on strong earnings

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7Bf1781248%2Daa06%2D4c5d%2D8358%2D87b59dc67c85%7D

European bourses snapped a two-day losing streak on Thursday morning, buoyed by upbeat earnings updates and an uptick in merger activity. The Eurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed up 0.92 per cent at 1,617.76 after falling 1.2 percent on Wednesday. Germany’s Xetra Dax added 1.24 per cent to 7,991.21, the CAC 40 in Paris gained 1.16 per cent to 6,065.50 and London’s FTSE 100 climbed 1.11 per cent to 6,640.2.

[Ghost Dog]

51. FTSE ends higher after miners rise

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B5d05f58b%2D2b11%2D40e8%2Da590%2D99aeeaa592ce%7D

London shares made a solid recovery on Thursday following a two-day losing streak, mirroring gains in both the US and Asia. Mining stocks gained after the sector performed well in Australia overnight. Lead prices hit a record, tin touched a three-month high and copper and nickel prices also rose. The FTSE 100 rose 1.11 per cent to 6,640.2 an increase of 73.1 points, while the mid-cap FTSE 250 put on 154.2 points, or 1.32 per cent, to trade at 11,880.2.

[Ghost Dog]

7. Credit Suisse sees big stock market fall in 6 mths

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/070719/3/350wy.html

SINGAPORE, July 19 (Reuters) - Credit Suisse sees a big correction in world stock markets by the end of this year, once interest rate increases in Japan have begun to accelerate, an economist for the Swiss bank said on Thursday.

"We could see a continuous uptrend over the next six months, driving valuations perhaps above the fair value, and then we see a significant pullback before a longer bull market can resume," Giles Keating, head of research at Credit Suisse's private bank and asset management business said at a briefing.

"Valuations are by no means silly."

He said that while stock markets, such as the S&P 500 Index , had risen to levels last seen at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000, corporate earnings were around 50 percent higher than at the time, leaving equities undervalued.

"So in a sense, equities have still got the potential to rise further to perhaps get a bit expensive, and then suffer from a bit of a pullback as the next big round of monetary tightening does come through."

He said any selloff could hit Asian stock markets much harder than others, and could last as long as seven months.

Asian markets have been rising since 2003 and the benchmark MSCI ex-Japan is up 24 percent so far this year.

Keating said the yen-funded "carry trade" -- investors borrowing cheaply in low-yielding currencies to fund purchases of higher return ones -- was likely to end later this year.

/..

[Kolesar]

40. It's gonna go up, then it's gonna go down, then a longer bull market will resume

Come back for more advice....:shrug:

[Neshanic]

41. This fall, will be this fall. It will be ginourmous.

[Kolesar]

42. And somehow reflected in the futures prices...more shrugging

:shrug:

[UpInArms]

8. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.405 Change -0.007 (-0.01%)

Will A Weaker Dollar Counter Subprime?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Will_A_Weaker_Dollar_Counter_1184794396804.html

With the US dollar hitting a record low against the Euro on concerns about the sub-prime sector, there are many people wondering whether more weakness is in store for the US dollar. The fear is that default after default will eventually lead to weaker spending and lower growth across the country, but many people have also forgotten the benefits that the weaker dollar can bring to the economy. With the outlook so dire, a weak currency could actually be what ends up saving the country.

In Economics 101, we learned that the biggest beneficiary of a weak dollar is the export sector. As the currency declines, the cheaper US exports appear to foreign trade partners. We have already seen recent reports confirm the theory as fact with US exports skyrocketing to a record high in the month of May. According to the US Commerce Department’s most recent trade balance survey, global partners bought $132 billion in goods from the US. It is not a mere coincidence that the dollar weakened significantly in the month of May.

Dollar Implications

With a lower dollar, things may not be as bad as they seem. There remains plenty of evidence in the economy that should keep Chairman Ben Bernanke and fellow Fed policy makers from turning significantly bearish and in turn keep the dollar relatively stabilized in the short term. Incidentally, it is also a lower valued dollar that is keeping the subprime mess from spreading any further than it already has. ISM has continued to climb while the labor market remains strong.

Here, a lower dollar has stemmed losses in the US economy as manufacturing and production have both picked up since the beginning of the year. Once again, not a coincidence, looking at raw data from the start of the year, manufacturing has shown considerable growth since dipping into contractionary levels in the month of January. After dipping to 49.3, the survey has roared back every single month with the exception of March when the survey pulled back slightly. This can only mean one thing, sector growth. The notion has been confirmed by regional surveys including the most recent New York Empire State manufacturing survey. Expected to show rather tepid growth, the regional Fed report instead showed considerable expansion in the area as the findings rose 47 percent from the previous month. Key driver: new orders. The lifeline of the manufacturing sector, it seems that a depreciated currency has lifted the sector and increased output and expansion, giving support for the overall economy. It is for this reason that Bernanke is still looking for a modest recovery over the next year.

...more...

Bernanke Shifts Tone, Sending Dollar to Record Low against the Euro

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Bernanke_Shifts_Tone__Sending_Dollar_1184794909150.html

To the surprise of the market, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke shifted his tone ever so slightly in his congressional testimony on the economy and monetary policy. Back in February, when he gave his last testimony, Bernanke said that the housing market was stabilizing but now he feels that the problems in housing could get worse before it gets better. The Fed’s vocal concern about contagion indicates that “in their books” the economic environment has deteriorated enough to begin considering putting growth ahead of inflation. For a central banker that wants to stake his reputation on fighting inflation, this is significant. Bernanke also reminded us that the Fed’s primary focus is on core prices and not headline prices. Even though oil prices are rising, he felt that unless we have another big jump, core prices could edge a bit lower. The Fed cut their growth forecasts for 2008 to 2.5-2.75 percent from 2.75-3 percent and increased their unemployment forecasts from 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent. The central tendency for core inflation was left unchanged at 2 to 2.25 percent for 2007 and 1.75 to 2 percent for 2008. This indicates that they expect inflation to slow over the next year. Today’s economic releases provide support to the Fed’s cautionary stance. Headline consumer prices were stronger than expected, but core prices were right in line with expectations. Even though the gain in core was slightly higher than the rise in May, it is only modestly so. Starts increased but building permits hit a 10 year low, indicating that housing continues to be a problem. Bond yields and the US dollar dropped on the back of Bernanke’s comments, but further dollar weakness could be limited by the fact at this point, the Fed can do little more than raise red flags.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

9. Future euro strength a worry - EU's Almunia

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2922818&mesg_id=2922829

BILBAO, Spain, July 19 (Reuters) - Future euro strength is a concern although its appreciation against the dollar has yet to cause trade or current account imbalances, European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said on Thursday.

"I'm worried ... looking to the future, if there are very rapid changes which aren't supported by fundamentals," Almunia told a conference in the northern Spanish town of Bilbao.

"Up until now, the appreciation has not had caused any trade or current account imbalance," he said, adding that the strength of global export demand had so far outweighed the negative impact of the euro's appreciation.

There was concern that the yen <JPY=> and dollar weakness were not backed by fundamentals, Almunia said.

The euro <EUR=> traded at around $1.38 on Thursday after reaching its strongest level since its launch in 1999, hitting a record $1.3834 on electronic trading platform EBS on Wednesday.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has called for euro zone finance ministers to have a greater role in exchange rate policy.

/...

[DemReadingDU]

18. $80.18 at 9:27am

edit for link
http://www.kitco.com/market/index.html

[Ghost Dog]

19. Canada's Dollar Approaches 30-Year High After Wholesale Sales

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aj6Q9jWR3F4c&refer=currency

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's dollar approached the 30- year high reached yesterday after a government report showed wholesale sales rose more than economists expected in May.

The currency has gained almost 12 percent this year on a strengthening economy and higher prices for Canada's commodity exports including oil. Crude oil rose to an 11-month high in New York after Total SA lost production and declared force majeure at the Dalia field in Angola.

Canada's dollar rose to 96.1 U.S. cent at 8:51 a.m. in Toronto, from 95.81 U.S. cents yesterday. The currency climbed to 96.14 U.S. cents yesterday, the highest since February 1977. One U.S. dollar buys C$1.0416.

Total sales rose 0.6 percent to C$43.1 billion ($41.3 billion), Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. Economists in a Bloomberg News survey forecast a gain of 0.5 percent, the median of 17 estimates.

/...

[mojavekid]

33. Daily Pfennig 7/19/07: The Time to Buy Is Now...

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=1501

Good day... Wow! The dollar continued to trade off against just about everything yesterday. We hit new highs on the euro, pound sterling and Chinese renminbi while both the New Zealand and Australian dollars traded at 20- and 16-year highs respectively. The currency markets continue to come around to our way of thinking; and even Fed Head Bernanke seems to be starting to come back to reality.

But one of the problems with the currencies hitting new highs is investors never want to buy something that is at its top. I have spoken to several investors who have called into the desk with questions on what they should be buying. When I give them my opinion that the euro, pound, AUD$, and CAD$ all look good; they come back with "But those currencies are trading at their highs, shouldn't we wait for a pullback?" Sure, you can wait, but for how long? The first business card I ever had was for a commercial real estate firm where I worked during college. On the back side of the card was a picture of a very old man with the saying "A young man who waited for the price of real estate to come down". We look at the fundamentals of the economies, and suggest currencies which continue to have positive fundamentals and good long-term trends.

The trends right now are with the currencies and against the US$! You can't deny it. Just pull up charts of any of these currencies and you will see the trend is still in place. There is plenty more appreciation left in these investments. And the fundamentals, which we feel are much more important than the charts, still support further dollar weakness. Sure, the pound sterling is at $2.05, the euro has traded up to $1.38, and the AUD$ is close to $0.90, but the central banks of these countries remain vigilant against the threat of further inflation. Interest rates in these countries will continue to move up, while rates in the U.S. will stay unchanged. These currencies still have a way to go.

more...

[Ghost Dog]

36. FXCM SSI: Nearly 74 percent of Retail Traders Remain Short Euros

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Fxcm_SSI__Nearly_74_percent_1184855276135.html?engine=rss&keyword=article

Written by Antonio J F Sousa, Currency Analyst
EURUSD – Nearly 74 percent of Retail Traders Remain Short Euros.
GBPUSD – Long Positions Are Up by 30 percent Since Last Week.
USDJPY – The SSI gives us a Strong Signal to Sell US dollars Against the Japanese Yen.
USDCHF – The Ratio Remains Extreme. We Have 5 Longs for Each Short.
USDCAD – Positions Outstanding Fall By 3 Percent on Stops Liquidation.



How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

<chart>

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -2.85 as nearly 74% of traders are short. However, during this week, retail has been buying the EURUSD (long positions are up by 22.9% since last week). Short positions are 8.4% higher than yesterday but only 0.1% weaker since last week. When retail is short but reduces its exposure, the long term direction remains bullish but the market might have some downside in the short term. The SSI gives us a MEDIUM STRENGTH SIGNAL TO BUY EURUSD.

<chart>

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.6 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.07 as 67% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 26.3% higher than yesterday and 30.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 4.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.0% stronger than yesterday and 6.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

<chart>

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 4.86 as nearly 83% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.45 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.8% higher than yesterday and 23.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 19.2% above its monthly average. The SSI gives us a signal to sell USDCHF.

<chart>

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.46 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Moreover, retail has been buying more USDJPY (long positions are up by 15.6% since last week). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the USDJPY has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL USDJPY.

<chart>

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.13 as nearly 81% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.03 as 80% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.2% higher than yesterday and 5.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 1.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

/...

In other words, this "contrarian" indicator indicates USD heading further towards the floor.

[Ghost Dog]

34. Sterling slips after below-consensus UK retail sales

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?rpc=401&type=ukPoundRpt&storyID=2007-07-19T143441Z_01_L19780994_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STERLING-CLOSE.XML

LONDON, July 19 (Reuters) - Sterling weakened against the euro and dollar on Thursday as lower-than-forecast June UK retail sales marginally trimmed investor expectations of interest rate rises.

Retail sales rose 0.2 percent on the month and 3.4 percent on the year, compared to analysts' forecasts for increases of 0.3 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively.

That was also slower than May's rate of growth and saw sterling come back down below $2.05 and further down from the 26-year highs against the dollar struck earlier in the week.

"The retail sales report which came in slightly below where the market was expecting and so given how far that sterling had come up against the dollar and euro, we are seeing a small correction back," said Naeem Wahid, currency strategist at Halifax Bank of Scotland.

At 1454 GMT the pound was down 0.2 percent versus the dollar at $2.0488 <GBP=>. A broadly stronger euro was up 0.4 percent against the pound to 67.47 pence <EURGBP=>.

UK interest rates futures showed expectations for rate rises edged lower but further monetary tightening in the coming months is still priced in.

A Reuters poll on Wednesday showed that 30 out of 55 economists see UK interest rates rising to 6 percent this year but only three of them expect the move to come in August.

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said he expects inflation to come down during the rest of the year, according to an interview with the Western Morning News on Thursday.

/...

Watch on Swiss Franc (CHF), Pound Sterling (GBP)

[UpInArms]

46. Dollar edges lower amid housing market concerns

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSKRA81672120070719

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar eased against most major currencies and traded near record lows versus the euro on Thursday as concerns about the health of the U.S. housing market and its impact on consumer spending persisted.

The dollar reached its lowest levels in years on Wednesday following congressional testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. The Fed cut growth forecasts for the U.S. economy for this year and next and Bernanke said the hard-hit housing market will remain sluggish.

On Thursday, during a second day of testimony, Bernanke reinforced Wednesday's statement. Giving some ammunition to dollar bears, Bernanke said declines in U.S. home prices could curb consumer spending.

"The market continues on a bearish mode towards the dollar, favoring higher-yielding currencies and Bernanke's testimony today didn't change that outlook," said Nick Bennenbroek, head currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. China GDP growth jumps to 11.9 percent

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070719/bs_nm/china_economy_dc

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's annual economic growth surged to an 11- year high of 11.9 percent in the second quarter, cementing expectations for tighter policy to keep the world's fastest-growing major economy from overheating.

The figures put China on course to chalk up its straight fifth year of double-digit growth and to overtake Germany as the world's third-biggest economy -- perhaps as soon as this year.

"It's stunning. We should expect them to raise interest rates or reserve requirements at any moment," said Tim Condon, head of Asia research at Dutch bank ING in Singapore.

The spurt in gross domestic product growth from 11.1 percent in the first quarter blew past expectations of a 10.8 percent rise, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Thursday.

...more...

[Gregorian]

38. OMG. And to think we're surging in the opposite direction.

That's incredible.

From an environmental standpoint, we really must stop growing. Hello!....

[UpInArms]

12. Ex-press baron Black seeks freedom before sentence

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN1840695620070719?feedType=RSS

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Conrad Black may have to fight his felony conviction from behind bars if a U.S. judge decides on Thursday he could flee before she sentences the former press baron later this year.

More likely, Judge Amy St. Eve of U.S. District Court in Chicago will allow the 62-year-old Black to remain free pending the November 30 sentencing date at which she may order him to prison for 15 to 20 years, legal experts said.

"The court can set conditions as to the range of places that he can go to, whether he can be confined to his residence, whether electronic monitoring will take place," said Stuart Gerson, a former assistant U.S. attorney specializing in criminal prosecutions.

The Canadian-born Black surrendered his British passport -- he renounced his Canadian citizenship in 2001 in order to become a British lord -- to the judge last Friday, shortly after a jury delivered its verdict.

He was found guilty on three fraud counts and one count of obstructing justice in swindling $2.9 million from former media giant Hollinger International Inc. Three fellow former executives were also convicted.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Bruised Bear hedge fund investors mull legal action

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/bearstearns_hedgefund_dc

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Some aggrieved investors are turning to lawyers to pursue possible legal claims stemming from losses at two Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE:BSC - news) hedge funds that were virtually wiped out from large, illiquid bets on risky mortgages.

One lawyer who handles cases against financial firms said on Wednesday that he had been retained by two investors in the funds -- a family office and a fund of funds he would not identify -- to explore potential lawsuits.

"They are shocked and angered by the losses," said lawyer Ross Intelisano, of Rich & Intelisano in New York. "They were under the impression that at least for that fund (that they were invested in) that the losses were much milder."

Bear Stearns said in a letter to clients on Tuesday that there was "effectively no value" left for investors in its High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund and "very little value" remaining in the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund. A copy of the letter was obtained by Reuters.

CNBC reported on Wednesday that Bear Stearns had hired several outside law firms as it braces for investor litigation. It said the Wall Street firm had hired WilmerHale to represent it before the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and shareholders, another to represent the board of directors and audit committee and another to represent the funds themselves.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Dow Jones director Li may face charges in U.S. probe

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSWEN939720070719?feedType=RSS

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Dow Jones & Co. Inc. (DJ.N: Quote, Profile, Research) board member David Li, a prominent Hong Kong banker, may face civil charges in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission insider trading investigation linked to News Corp.'s (NWSa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $5 billion bid for the U.S. media company.

Li, who is chairman and chief executive officer of Bank of East Asia (0023.HK: Quote, Profile, Research), denied on Thursday any wrongdoing.

"I have broken no laws and deny the apparent allegations being made by the staff of the Commission. If the Commission does commence proceedings against me, I will defend myself vigorously," Li, 68, said in a statement issued by the bank.

The SEC's notice to Li comes at critical moment for Dow Jones, which on Tuesday endorsed the $60 a share buyout offer from News Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch. The board's approval sends the deal to Dow Jones' controlling Bancroft family for final approval.

Bank of East Asia said on Thursday in Hong Kong that Li received a so-called Wells notice indicating that the SEC was considering recommending a civil enforcement action against him for alleged breaches of U.S. securities laws.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

17. Economists see aid to poor nations as ineffective

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N18355553.htm

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - Aid to poor countries has little effect on economic growth, and policies that rely on such claims should be reexamined, two former International Monetary Fund economists wrote in a paper released this month.

"We find little evidence of a robust positive correlation between aid and growth," wrote Raghuram Rajan, who stepped down as IMF chief economist at the end of 2006, and Arvind Subramanian, who left the IMF this year, said. "We find little evidence that aid works better in better policy or institutional environments, or that certain kinds of aid work better than others," they added.

...

The paper comes as rich nations struggle to meet global poverty-reduction targets set out in 2000 as part of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals.

The economists sought to adjust for unusual situations that could skew the data, like times when donations rise following a hurricane or earthquake, which can stunt economic growth. They found similar results regardless of the type of aid.

"One of the most enduring and important questions in economics is whether foreign aid helps countries grow," they wrote. "There is a moral imperative to this question: it is a travesty for so many countries to remain poor if a relatively small transfer of resources from rich countries could set them on the path to growth." But if there is no clear evidence that aid boosts growth, then handing out more money makes little sense, they said.

In a telephone interview, Subramanian said the aid money would be better spent on a research and development fund to get the private sector to make products to help poor countries. Private companies have little financial incentive to develop a malaria vaccine, for example, but if rich nations pledged to buy the product for impoverished countries, firms would be more inclined to invest in the research.

/..

[UpInArms]

20. 9:32 EST and the markets open with a surge of love

Dow 13,999.84 81.62 (0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,719.39 19.90 (0.74%)
S&P 500 1,552.54 6.37 (0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 5.06% 0.05

NYSE Volume 53,486,000
Nasdaq Volume 60,889,000

edited to add early morning blather

Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: +6.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.0.
09:00 ET
.
Market is Closed

S&P futures vs fair value: +6.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.0. Still shaping up for stocks to rebound as the bulk of earnings still checking in above Wall Street estimates further subdue yesterday's renewed subprime concerns.

Honeywell (HON) has been the latest large-cap name to beat expectations and also boost its guidance. Its 2.5% surge in pre-market action, complimented by a 3.8% rally in shares of fellow Dow component IBM (IBM) to a new multi-year high as well, are among the biggest catalysts behind the market's improved underlying tone.
09:00 ET
.
Market is Closed

S&P futures vs fair value: +6.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.0. Still shaping up for stocks to rebound as the bulk of earnings still checking in above Wall Street estimates further subdue yesterday's renewed subprime concerns.

Honeywell (HON) has been the latest large-cap name to beat expectations and also boost its guidance. Its 2.5% surge in pre-market action, complimented by a 3.8% rally in shares of fellow Dow component IBM (IBM) to a new multi-year high as well, are among the biggest catalysts behind the market's improved underlying tone.
08:35 ET
.
Market is Closed

S&P futures vs fair value: +5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.8. Initial claims, which were compiled during the same week as the crucial July payrolls report, unexpectedly fell 8K to 301K (consensus 310K).

Since that's the lowest number of jobless benefits in two months, suggesting labor conditions remain healthy, the futures market has gotten a boost and now points to an even stronger start for stocks.
08:35 ET
.
Market is Closed

S&P futures vs fair value: +5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +15.8. Initial claims, which were compiled during the same week as the crucial July payrolls report, unexpectedly fell 8K to 301K (consensus 310K).

Since that's the lowest number of jobless benefits in two months, suggesting labor conditions remain healthy, the futures market has gotten a boost and now points to an even stronger start for stocks.
08:00 ET
.
Market is Closed

S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.8. Early indications suggest yesterday's late-day recovery attempt will carry over into this morning's opening bell. A better than expected batch of earnings is helping stocks bounce back from a session influenced by earnings disappointments. Dow component IBM (IBM) after boosting its full-year growth forecasts last night is renewing optimism throughout a tech sector that a day earlier took a bearish cue from Intel's (INTC) margin pressures and a warning from Yahoo! (YHOO).

Other large-cap names contributing to the positive disposition include Bank of America (BAC), which beat expectations, UnitedHealth Group (UNH), which lifted the upper end of its full-year guidance, and Wyeth (WYE), which boosted its 2007 outlook.
08:00 ET
.
Market is Closed

S&P futures vs fair value: +3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.8. Early indications suggest yesterday's late-day recovery attempt will carry over into this morning's opening bell. A better than expected batch of earnings is helping stocks bounce back from a session influenced by earnings disappointments. Dow component IBM (IBM) after boosting its full-year growth forecasts last night is renewing optimism throughout a tech sector that a day earlier took a bearish cue from Intel's (INTC) margin pressures and a warning from Yahoo! (YHOO).

Other large-cap names contributing to the positive disposition include Bank of America (BAC), which beat expectations, UnitedHealth Group (UNH), which lifted the upper end of its full-year guidance, and Wyeth (WYE), which boosted its 2007 outlook.
06:18 ET
Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: +2.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.5.

[DemReadingDU]

Losing the American dream

The Dow is soaring, and the economy is growing. So why are so many Americans bearish? Fortune's Nina Easton looks at an economy where money is plentiful, but security scarce.

WASHINGTON (Fortune) -- The Dow pops into uncharted 14,000-point territory. An economy pummeled by the 9/11 terrorist attacks has grown for 22 quarters straight. Unemployment stands at 4.5 percent - lower than any average decade from the 1960s through the 1990s. And Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson declares: "This is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime."

So why do six out of ten Americans think that the economy was better five years ago and fear that worse economic times are on the horizon, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll? "If it makes you happy," moans Sheryl Crow, "then why the hell are you so sad?"

This isn't new, but it is befuddling. The public has been blue about the economy for years, giving rise to an industry of blame-layers. Liberals predictably blame George Bush - for the war, for tax policies that favor the rich, for letting U.S. jobs go to China and India. Conservatives point the finger at the "liberal media establishment," which, they insist, put a shinier spin on the Bill Clinton bubble economy than on George Bush's recovery. And when all those explanations are exhausted, pundits like to blame Americans themselves - for being spoiled and soft and wanting too much.

more...
http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/18/news/economy/powerplay_economy.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007071905

[KoKo]

31. Something about this article doesn't ring true....

Can't put my finger on it aside from that it has an "accept globalization...it's good for you, but you'll need to learn to work with it" kind of message.

It's a little arrogant and especially the observations from "The Third Way," that are quoted in the article. Reminds me of Hillary saying "globilization is here to stay, and we have to make it work better."

Anyway, the article seemed to be more cheerleading for how we all need to learn to be better entrepreneurs. Some of us might feel that putting a moratorium on this fast passed globilization until we put more regulation in to safe guard against abuses might be wiser. :shrug:

This paragraph really made me angry:

As Third Way documents in its reports, the American middle class isn't really shrinking, so much as it is anxious. The median household income for workers aged 25 to 60 is nearly $62,000. If both spouses work, it's close to $82,000. As Kessler notes: "That is not an extravagant living. But it is not drowning. And it is not one step away from losing your home." The same Third Way report noted: "The bottom line is that the middle class is shrinking not because the bottom is dropping out; it is because more people are better off."

[DemReadingDU]

32. Yeh, where are they getting those income numbers?

Reminds me when gas is over $3 per gallon, and people are interviewed filling up the gas tank of a Hummer. People who have a Hummer don't care about the price...they pay whatever. Why don't they interview someone with a 10 year old Cavalier who has seen the price of a fill-up go from appx $15 to over $35!

[Hugin]

48. Wait a second...

"median household income for workers aged 25 to 60 is nearly $62,000. If both spouses work, it's close to $82,000

:wtf:

Wouldn't it be nearly $124,000.00 if both spouses worked?

Also, I believe the median household income is more like ~$40,000.00... Which by my Math and not
KKKarl's isn't NEARLY $62,000.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

21. ...and #5

Thanks!

[UpInArms]

22. "Chopper" Ben goes on autopilot drone for Capitol Hill testimony

04. Bernanke's prepared text identical to Wednesday's
9:31 AM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

05. Bernanke begins second day of testimony at Senate
9:31 AM ET, Jul 19, 2007 - 4 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

45. Subprime losses could cost $100 billion-Bernanke

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1933365020070719

WASHINGTON, July 19 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday that subprime mortgage losses could hit $100 billion and threaten consumer spending, but he sought to reassure lawmakers that the central bank was working quickly to strengthen lending regulations.

"The credit losses associated with subprime have come to light and they are fairly significant," Bernanke told the Senate Banking Committee in a second day of testimony on the Fed's twice-yearly economic report.

"Some estimates are in the order of between $50 billion and $100 billion of losses associated with subprime credit problems," he said, referring to a segment of the mortgage market that caters to borrowers with shaky credit.

Bernanke said that the most reliable indicators show U.S. home prices have not declined nationally and that the housing slump had so far not led U.S. consumers to cut back on spending.

He said, however, that if prices did drop, consumers might trim spending by as much as 9 cents for each dollar of wealth lost.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Bank of America profit up 5 pct, bad loans soar

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1940495220070719?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp. (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the second-largest U.S. bank, on Thursday said quarterly profit rose 5 percent as gains from equity investments helped offset soaring credit losses and lower earnings in its main business of retail banking.

<snip>

Rising credit losses helped push profit from consumer and small business banking, the bank's main business, down 23 percent to $2.46 billion. This offset benefits from programs that offer free online stock trades and eliminate some fees on mortgages.

The rate of managed card charge-offs rose to 5.02 percent from 3.67 percent, and the rate of managed card loans 30 days past due rose to 5.08 percent from 4.75 percent.

Net interest margin fell to 2.59 percent from 2.85 percent a year earlier, and from the first quarter's 2.61 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Harley calls consumer credit picture 'challenging'

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1940840520070719

CHICAGO, July 19 (Reuters) - Executives at Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the U.S. motorcycle maker, acknowledged on Thursday that the credit environment was creating an additional headwind for the company, which reported disappointing U.S. sales.

During a conference call with investors, the company said its finance unit was experiencing higher delinquency rates and credit losses.

Earlier in the day, Harley said total dealer retail sales fell 1.2 percent during the second quarter, pulled down by a 5.5 percent decline in sales in the United States, the company's biggest and most important market.

...more...

[mojavekid]

26. MW: Gold futures edge up; copper rallies

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-edge-up-copper/story.aspx?guid=%7B69E6FC61%2DC6D6%2D47DB%2DB2A9%2DEF9110B523BA%7D&siteid=yhoof

Gold for August delivery rose 90 cents at $674.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
"Gold prices continued at levels above $670 per ounce amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and near 11-month highs in the crude oil price," Kitco Bullion Dealers analyst Jon Nadler said in a morning note.
On Wednesday, gold futures closed up $7.80, or 1.2%, at $673.70 an ounce after a high of $675.30. The contract hasn't closed or traded at levels this high since early June.
"The $675.00 value marker remains a challenge, but for the moment, conditions have ameliorated sufficiently to begin to draw new buyers into the market," Nadler said. "Trading appeared fairly subdued in the opening minutes and could allow for another brief pause or re-grouping as we head towards the weekend."
On the currency markets, the dollar traded mixed against the euro and the yen early Thursday, stabilizing after falling to fresh lows in the previous session.
"Given the increasing concerns towards the U.S. economy and the current bear trend in the dollar, gold looks set to benefit further as investors diversify their portfolios," TheBullionDesk.com analyst James Moore said in a research report.
Copper rallies
Other metals prices were mixed. September copper rose 7.10 cents, or 2%, at $3.6350 a pound.
"Copper was boosted by an International Copper Study Group report showing world refined copper consumption outpacing production by 265,000 tons in the first four months of the year," said Edward Meir, analyst at Man Financial, in a morning note. "This compares with a surplus of 35,000 tons in the year-ago."


more...

[Ghost Dog]

52. Tin rises to an all-time high

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?pulse=true&siteid=ft&dist=ft&guid=%7B87af94be%2D5a65%2D4c8e%2D8388%2Deea6b9766a60%7D

Commodity prices on Thursday rose across the board, with tin hitting a record high and lead accumulating a price increase of a 100 per cent since January. Tin, a key metal for soldering in the electronic industry, rose to a record of $15,700 a tonne on supply concerns and speculative funds flows. London Mental Exchange tin traded 4.7 per cent higher to $15,600 a tonne. Supply problems in Indonesia, the world’s largest tin producer, and concerns about mining operations in Bolivia, the world’s number-four producer, pushed the metal higher. The electronic industry consumes about a third of tin production for soldering. Lead also hit a fresh record high and has now accumulated a price increase of a 100 per cent since the start of the year. LME lead in London morning trade rose to a high of $3,310 a tonne, up 3.4 on the day. Lead has been hit by production problems in the last months as an Australian mine that supplies about 3 per cent of global output suspended shipments. About 75 per cent of global lead production is devoted to the batteries industry. An explosion last week in the largest US lead refinery-smelter contributed to the supply concerns. Speculative money has also provided additional support.

[mojavekid]

28. LAT: Housing skid beginning to affect Southland rents

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-rents19jul19,1,912862.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

When Riverside County landlord Eloise Figueroa learned that her tenant was about to move out of her four-bedroom home in Perris and into a lower-priced rental house, she sprang into action.

"I said, 'Where are you going? What are you paying? OK. That's your new rent,' " said Figueroa, who agreed to cut her renter's $3,000 monthly lease by $150 to keep him.

After years of substantial increases, landlords throughout Southern California are finding it's getting harder to increase rents at the same torrid rate. On average, rents are still rising, but more slowly than they have been.

No place is the phenomenon more pronounced than in the Inland Empire, where the slumping housing market is creating new competition in the form of vacant and unsold homes.

What's more, Riverside and San Bernardino counties have experienced a boom in new apartment construction that dumped nearly 5,000 units on the market in the last 12 months.

more...

[Nimrod2005]

47. 14,000! Closing above the 14K today?

[UpInArms]

49. here you go 14,000.41 Dow Closed

Dow 14,000.41 up 82.19 (0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,720.04 up 20.55 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,553.08 up 6.91 (0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 5.028% down 0.018

NYSE Volume 3,100,561,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,151,329,000

3:30 pm : Stocks are getting a second wind going into the close of trading. The Dow is trading just below the 14,000 milestone but is still on pace to close in record territory for the 32nd time this year. Twenty of its 30 components are in positive territory, paced by a 4.2% surge in IBM (IBM 115.70 4.62).

Blue chips are also getting a notable lift from respective rallies of 3.3% and 2.1% in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 48.68 +1.54) and Microsoft (MSFT 31.56 +0.64). The latter large-cap will be the focal point after the close as its Q4 earnings report will help set the tone for tomorrow's action and help investors decide whether today's tech rally was justified or if growth prospects remain questionable. DJ30 +80.98 NASDAQ +24.01 SP500 +6.83 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1153/1824/1.75 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1234/1992/1.16 bln

3:00 pm : The indices are bouncing off their afternoon lows but hardly enough to make a significant improvement in the standings. The Dow is still more than 25 below the 14,000 mark and 41 points off its intraday high just after the market opened.

The S&P 500 is also retracing earlier highs, but Health Care also slipping to session lows within the hour alongside Financials acts as an additional overhang. Albeit substantially less influential from weighting standpoint, the Telecom and Materials sectors recently turning negative aren't helping matters either. DJ30 +56.50 NASDAQ +21.15 SP500 +4.46 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1254/1726/1.60 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1245/1959/1.06 bln

[AnneD]

53. Let's see....

Double witching, Friday:think:
I won't hold my breathe til I get a pony tomorrow-Good luck. Cheap assed Marriot doesn't have wifi for the conference. What a pisser.
Happy hunting tomorrow and watch out for the bears.