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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 07:42 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, FRIDAY JANUARY 2 (#1)
Friday January 2, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 388
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 21 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 73 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 285
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 769
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 1
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 31, 2003

Dow... 10,453.92 +28.88 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq... 2,003.37 -6.51 (-0.32%)
S&P 500... 1,111.92 +2.28 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.26% -0.02 (-0.51%)
Gold future... 416.10 -1.10 (-0.26%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P


||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact susan@legitgov.org

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 07:48 AM
Response to Original message
1. "Evaluating America's Position"
As we shift calendars from 2003 to 2004, we advance from a war year to an election year. While the president’s popularity remains high, there are those who hate George W. Bush and think his administration stands against truth, liberty and justice. Some say that the invasion of Iraq was all about oil and the rich getting richer. Leftists oppose the administration because it is too “right wing.” Those who believe in small government oppose the administration because of its “socialist” policies. Traditionalists dislike the “utopian scheme” of bringing democracy to Iraq. Financial conservatives wince at the billions given to fight AIDS in Africa and for the reconstruction of distant war-torn countries. Three years ago American politicians were chattering excitedly about a federal budget surplus. Today the country hemorrhages money and the dollar is falling. America’s debt – public and private – has ballooned into a planet-sized orb that threatens an unprecedented eclipse. Yet the stock market climbs higher, filling hollow heads with optimistic speculations.

<cut>
In all probability, our ideas of tomorrow are falsifications based on innate optimistic or pessimistic tendencies. The optimist believes we are living in the best of all possible worlds and the pessimist is afraid he is right. George W. Bush is an optimist. He projects a happy outcome onto the blank slate of the future. Unlike his predecessor, he is serious about national security. Despite what his critics might say, he is not the Antichrist. He is not party to a so-called “internationalist” New World Order conspiracy. Rather, he is the president who opposed the International Criminal Court and invaded Iraq without U.N. approval.

<cut>
As for Europe, the infiltration of Germany, France and Holland by “former” East Bloc structures is not something innocuous. It is sinister and has now outrun every mechanism of containment. Since business is politics in capitalist countries, the Slavic Mafia’s penetration of Western business means that democratic structures throughout Europe have been corrupted and the political process compromised. Moscow-directed agents from “former” communist countries, operating under strict discipline, have gone largely unnoticed and unopposed. Analysts may talk now and then of “organized crime.” But this is organized crime with a political difference. Many will blame the coming defection of Western Europe on George Bush’s invasion of Iraq. But Europe’s shift away from America began in 1989 with the revolutions in Eastern Europe. A rising tide of anti-Americanism was already visible before Sept. 11, 2001.

It is not just Western Europe that is moving out of America’s orbit. Canada’s Sidewinder study, conducted jointly by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and the Canadian intelligence service, outlined methods employed by China to gain political control of Canada. According to the Sidewinder report: “Cooperation between the Hong Kong tycoons, the triads and the Beijing leadership adds a new dimension to the well known "mass line collection" strategy followed by the ChIS . This situation substantially raises the level of the potential threat, revealing the effectiveness of Chinese efforts to obtain Canadian technology and their capability to interfere in the management of the country.”

Nyquist at Financial Sense
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 08:50 AM
Response to Reply #1
5. Interesting, clueless but interesting
Mornin' Ozy,

Who is this guy?

Unlike his predecessor, he is serious about national security.

Yeah, the simian is so serious about national security he ignored all the warnings prior to 9/11. Then he shot our wad going into Iraq and catching Hussein, which did nothing to make us safer. I wouldn't call that "serious about national security", I'd call it seriously messed up. But hey, that's just me. ;-)

Despite what his critics might say, he is not the Antichrist. He is not party to a so-called “internationalist” New World Order conspiracy. Rather, he is the president who opposed the International Criminal Court and invaded Iraq without U.N. approval.

He's not party to a so-called New World Order he just acts like it. Oy!

Not to mention he has totally screwed up the economy. Of course the wealthy get wealthier so they think he's a good guy, I'm sure.

Interesting commentary. Hope you had a good New Year's with the family dear. :hi:

Julie
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 09:02 AM
Response to Reply #5
7. "New World Order" is a loaded phrase
Actually, Dubya is an advocate of a "new world order" but one in which America dominates the landscape and dictates the rules. And I think it is that scenario that fuels anti-Americanism more than any Eastern European cabal. I would add that increasing friendly relationships around the world might do a helluva lot more to increase "national security" than the writer seems to think. There are alternatives to the Big Stick approach in making friends and influencing people, something Clinton understands.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:14 AM
Response to Reply #7
20. Yes! That seems to be a problem with American society in general
today. We've become such an "it's all about me" nation. My way or the highway.

Interesting story to share -
After 9-11, the Pastor of the church I ocassionally attend was asked to speak to a gathering. He called on Americans to take time to do some self examination (reflection and repentance) on how we may have contributed to driving this type of animosity toward our country.

Well, he was nearly run out of his own congregation because of his speech. They wanted the wrath of God on "those people". THEY were the ones who needed to be changed, THEY were the ones that needed to repent for their sins. The congregation instead chose to wave their flags proudly, bring the flag back up to the front of the church, right next to the podium where it belonged (it was always back in the fellowship hall before this).

I found it very sad. He has since left that church.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:45 AM
Response to Reply #20
25. 54, you and Maeve are so right
A friendly relationship with more nations around the world would go a long way in helping us establish security.

Sad story about that Pastor 54. Damn sad.

Julie
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kath Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 07:45 PM
Response to Reply #20
51. Wow, what great Christians! Wouldn't Jeebus be proud?!
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KoKo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 11:42 AM
Response to Reply #5
30. What a strange mixed up, sinister article. I'm surprised to see this in
"Financial Sense." Anyone know what's up with this? Sort of reminds me of "Cold War" rhetoric that "Communists are under our beds." :shrug:
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 07:53 AM
Response to Original message
2. Dollar Greets 2004 with Cheerless Tone
LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar hit three-year lows against the yen and weakened against the euro on Friday, the first full trading session of 2004, as worries about the U.S. current account deficit continued to undermine the greenback.

<cut>
Analysts said this reflected a continuation of the dollar's inability to rally on good news over the past few months.

"The market continues to have a 'sell the dollar' mentality," said Kamal Sharma, foreign exchange strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "Investors' sentiment toward the dollar is very bearish."

Worries that the U.S. will not attract investment flows to cover its widening current account deficit knocked 17 percent off the dollar's value against the euro in 2003.

more
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 07:56 AM
Response to Original message
3. Stocks Set to Open Higher on Slow Day
NEW YORK - Stocks were set to open higher Friday, the start of trading in 2004. However, volume was expected to be light, with many people still on vacation.

<cut>
No significant earnings reports were scheduled for Friday, but a number of economic data is expected on the first business day of the new year.

At 10 a.m. EST, the Institute for Supply Management issues its December Manufacturing Index figure. The median finding of nine economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC found was for the December manufacturing survey to stand at 61.0, down from 62.8 in November. ISM readings above 50 indicate a growing activity: the higher the number, the quicker the pace.

story
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 08:32 AM
Response to Original message
4. And another view of what's in the future
From CNN/Money Senior Writer
Justin Lahart

2004: Three things to watch
<snip>
Housing
The pullback in housing activity will act as head wind for the economy, points out Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius, first because construction will slow, second -- and more importantly -- because mortgage refinancing won't be padding households' wallets like in 2003.
<snip>
The Wal-Mart backlash
Complaints about the "Walmartization" of the U.S. economy -- where highly skilled manufacturing jobs get shipped overseas, and U.S. workers are forced into low-paid jobs as retail clerks hawking foreign-made wares -- are growing
<snip>
Rates
But the factors that kept the Treasury yields low may fade in 2004.
First off, the Fed is likely to remove its promise to keep rates low for "a considerable period." Even absent worries over inflation (which are mounting) it seems prudent for the Fed to up the overnight rate from its current one percent during these good times so they have more rate cuts in their quiver for when the economy struggles again.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 08:53 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. I'm betting Jan or Feb
for a rate change. It has to happen soon because of it being an election year. I think Greenman is fearful of it though becasue I think he sees more clearly than the cheerleaders on TV, even though he is careful to sound positive.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Very interesting.

Julie
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #6
10. It is almost painful to hear him carefully parse his language.
Too much conditional phrasing, the "might" and "could be" rhetoric, must be getting tiring for the Greenman. I think that his testimony before Congress loses something in translation. The times when Greenman mentions "inflation" and "deflation" - he isn't necessarily talking about the cost of goods but about the money supply and interest rates.

Because I do not watch TV, I do not know how this is phrasing is painted. From the running commentary during and after his testimony, I suspect that there is a disconnect between the manager of the nationa's money and the middle-of-the-road pundits who attempt to relate the verbiage in basic communicable terms.
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 09:36 AM
Response to Reply #10
12. His problem is that he is squeezed too tightly.
He can't actually change rate policy since there's so little room left to wiggle, so the market reaction is based entirely on his choice of words.

If this man walks out on a hot day and says "boy, it's really high today" The marlet falls 200pts. "I can't believe it's this slow today" while in traffic still causes a 200pt jump up.

The man probably wants to retire so he can speak like a human being again.
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 09:32 AM
Response to Reply #6
11. Not a chance.
The most we'll get at the Jan or Feb meeting will be deate on whether the Fed will drop the "for a considerable period" language and replace it "for some time" or similar.

I don't expect an actual rate change until at least mid-year unless Q4 GDP growth is way out of whack (another 7-8% instead of 4-5%) or unless inflation actually starts to go up (which has yet to happen). And if inflation appears tame for the next six months they may not change rates until the election.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 09:55 AM
Response to Reply #11
14. I believe that too much attention is paid to the Fed.
Inasmuch that Greenman's mystical utterings are a Magic-8 Ball forseeing the direction the nation's economy will take. By the nation's economy: I mean the silly notion that the stock market is the economy. There is, in recent memory, Bush's comments in 2002 prior to the Department of Homeland Security's establishment as a cabinet post. During a factory tour overshadowed by a flood of reports about the U.S. hemorrhaging jobs, Bush whined that "the stock market is looking up" (referencing a recent market climb) and (the then-8,000 Dow) showed "value in the market".

The derision Bush's comments drew from economic sages like Krugman, and discussions here at DU was deafening. The matter is: the stock market is not the economy. It is a mere reflection of it. And reflections can be distorted by hyperbole, tangential rhetorical factors and fraud. More of the same language to describe the inflated importance of Greenman's pronouncemnts can be filed under the category "psychology of the markets".
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #14
16. I'll disagree on one point.
It isn't such a "silly notion" that the stock market IS the economy.

Obviously one CAN go up whil the other is going down, but perception is reality here.

What a lot of people who blow the "unemployment!" horn miss is that economic performance is largely a personal matter. If unemployment goes up a percent, the "real economy" IS suffering, but if I don't personally lose my job (or fear losing my job) and my 401(k) goes up 20k and my other invesments go up a few thousand too? I probably think things are going pretty well.

The perception of the economy is about to go way up in late January as people start to get tax refunds and (more importantly) their Q4 401(k) statements. The "real economy" is unlikely to look THAT good.
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #11
27. I disagree for 1 simple reason
Election year. The charges of "partisan" will be flying like crazy if Greenman waits till June or so. It just won't happen. Look at the careful parsing of words. The Fed is fully aware of the weight their words/actions are given. They will act accordingly IMO.

It'll be very, very interesting to watch. ;-)

Julie
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #27
29. Well. I WOULD have said no
Until a few minutes ago I would have disagreed. Raising rates with no sign of inflation would also be called "poltical/partisan".

After reading the ISM index internals I think GDP growth and unemployment may improve faster than I thought. They may NEED to raise rates sooner than I anticipated.

I guess we'll see.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:47 AM
Response to Reply #6
26. I'm with you on that one. His move cannot be taken to be
politically motivated - big no-no. If he waits beyond Feb, he'd have to sit on his hands until after Nov. I do not think the little Greenman would care to be in such an "impotent" situation. :evilgrin:
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:18 AM
Response to Reply #4
22. "Walmartization" he-he, this guy must hang out on DU.
:7
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 09:18 AM
Response to Original message
8. Dollar Watch
Good morning everyone :hi:

The buck is still toying with the idea of climbing back to 87.
Not much success though.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s

Last trade 86.64 Change -0.28 (-0.32%)

Settle 86.92 Settle Time 23:34

Open 86.79 Previous Close 86.92

High 87.25 Low 86.50
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 09:32 AM
Response to Original message
9. Here we go! Looking up at the opening
With the reminder that many traders are still on vacation until Monday...

Dow 10,467.18 +13.26 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,012.24 +8.87 (+0.44%)
S&P 500 1,113.14 +1.22 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.298% +0.041
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 09:39 AM
Response to Reply #9
13. So we see the bond market taking a hit at the get-go.
9:38
Dow 10,509.33 +55.41 (+0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,017.25 +13.88 (+0.69%)
S&P 500 1,116.44 +4.52 (+0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.295% +0.038
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:01 AM
Response to Reply #13
15. And a dip at the top of the hour
Dow 10,482.96 +29.04 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 2,012.77 +9.40 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,115.23 +3.31 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.294% +0.037
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:09 AM
Response to Reply #15
18. And a bounce a few minutes later
Probably on the good ISM report--blather sez:
10:00AM: Indices charge higher (after giving back some in the early action) following the encouraging December ISM Index... The national manufacturing report checked in at 66.2, noticeably higher than the consensus estimate of 61.0... Most industries have secured a place above the unchanged mark, with notables financial, drug, retail, and biotech edging higher... The semiconductor sector has also advanced, although its gains have not been nearly as robust... Other technology sub-sectors - such as networking, internet, software, and computer hardware - have jumped 0.6-1.0% higher...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
Dow 10,520.80 +66.88 (+0.64%)
Nasdaq 2,019.76 +16.39 (+0.82%)
S&P 500 1,117.81 +5.89 (+0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.295% +0.038
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:40 AM
Response to Reply #18
24. Ouch - some more of those pesky costs we dicussed the other day that
can't easily be passed on to the customer and still remain competitive. (Should see beef drop from this list next month) :evilgrin:

"There are no reports of commodities in short supply. Commodities reported up in price are: Aluminum; Aluminum Extrusions; Beef; Brass; Chemicals; Copper; Copper Cathode; Ethylene; Freight; Natural Gas; Nickel; Plywood; Polyethylene Resin; Stainless Steel; Steel; Steel Plates; and Steel Tubing. The only commodity reported down in price is Corrugated Cartons," Ore stated.

ISM's Prices Index indicates manufacturers continued to pay higher prices in December. This is the 22nd consecutive month the index has registered higher prices.


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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
17. HOLY COW! The ISM numbers are in WAY above expectations!
Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 10:07 AM by Frodo
A 66.2 when they expected a slight decrease to 61 from already record levels of 62.8.

I'll check back with internal numbers in a minute. Which parts went up DOES matter.
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:16 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. Internals.
Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 10:19 AM by Frodo
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/ROB012004.htm


Series Index Direction Rate of Change

PMI 66.2 Growing Faster
New Orders 77.6 Growing Faster
Production 73.0 Growing Faster
Employment 55.5 Growing Faster
Supplier Deliveries 58.8 Slowing Faster
Inventories 47.3 Contracting From Unchanged
Customers' Inventories 39.0 Too Low Faster
Prices 66.0 Increasing Faster
Backlog of Orders 61.0 Growing Faster
New Export Orders 60.4 Growing Faster
Imports 57.8 Growing Slower


On edit - OK this didn't format right. Anyone want to give me html tips on creating columns?

This is almost uniformly good news (and better than anticipated). Imports going down is expected with the week dollar, inventories going down is probably a good thing.

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:14 AM
Response to Original message
19. Time to go.
Work calls. I hope you Marketeers have a wonderful weekend. I have some work shopping planned for Saturday - meeting some people who might open a spot for me in audio engineering.

Please be well and safe! See you Monday.

Ozy
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:21 AM
Response to Original message
23. More from the ISM report.
A PMI in excess of 42.9 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The December PMI indicates that both the overall economy and the manufacturing sector are growing. The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through December (53.5 percent) corresponds to a 3.9 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). However, if the PMI for December (66.2 percent) is annualized, this corresponds to an 8.6 percent increase in GDP.

I take back my previous prediction on interest rates. If the economy comes it at 7-8% GDP growth again for Q4, I expect rates to be raised before this summer. But it won't matter because the economy won't be our issue next year.
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 10:53 AM
Response to Original message
28. Dollar update - quite the ride this morning
An hour and a half ride up from 86.5 to 86.8
About 2 hours back down to 86.5
Then a rocket ride back up to 86.8 at 10am.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0&v=s
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 12:40 PM
Response to Original message
31. Ewww, the Greeman to speaketh this weekend. Next week should
be quite exciting for the Marketeers.

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?storyID=4066104&type=bondsNews

WASHINGTON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Top U.S. central bank officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, are scheduled to offer their views on U.S. economic prospects entering 2004 at a weekend conference on the West Coast.
Greenspan, Fed Vice-Chairman Roger Ferguson and Governor Ben Bernanke are to address the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in San Diego, California on Saturday and Sunday.

With U.S. interest rates at 45-year lows and a recovery gradually adding strength, financial markets are intently scrutinizing Fed officials' comments for any guidance on when U.S. rates might move begin to move higher.

Most analysts say a rate hike is unlikely until well into 2004, possibly May, while others speculate the high degree of slack in the U.S. economy means policymakers could hold off on rate rises until much later in the year.

more....
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 01:08 PM
Response to Original message
32. 1:08--is that the smell of profit-taking on the DOW?
Dow 10,464.08 +10.16 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,016.65 +13.28 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,113.56 +1.64 (+0.15%)
10-Yr Bond 4.369% +0.112

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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 01:14 PM
Response to Reply #32
33. Yeah, really hugging the flat line
quiet day. I think trading will re-start in earnest on Monday. I don't expect much either way today, in spite of earlier fireworks.

:shrug:

Julie
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 01:32 PM
Response to Reply #33
34. Such a slow day, and me about to hit the 1000 post marker. Gotta do it
on this thread! Don't mind if I babble to myself for a bit.
:D
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Frodo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 01:53 PM
Response to Reply #34
35. How will we know the difference?
:-)

Congratulations a tad early!
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 02:05 PM
Response to Original message
36. Dollar update and an "I wish I wouldn't have said that" article.
Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 02:12 PM by 54anickel
Lost most of the gain that came at 10am with the ISM numbers

Last trade 86.63 Change -0.29 (-0.33%)

Settle 86.92 Settle Time 23:34

Open 86.79 Previous Close 86.92

High 87.25 Low 86.50

So, with that in mind, back to the "Wish I wouldn't have said that".

http://www.reuters.com/financeArticle.jhtml?storyID=4065954&newsType=usDollarRpt&menuType=currencies

snip>
The (numbers are) very positive. If this doesn't make the dollar go up, I don't know what will," said Lara Rhame, senior economist with Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

"Right now, it seems that the production sector and manufacturing sector is set to take over if the consumer starts to fatigue. It should be very positive for the (U.S.) economy and the dollar. If this kind of data doesn't support the dollar, then it just reinforces my suspicion that the dollar is reacting to structural capital flow issues and not fundamental economics," Rhame added.
<snip

Gotta watch what ya say! How is Greenman going to deal with this guys statement this weekend. Poor Al, probably editing his entire presentation now.
:evilgrin:

On edit - forgot to add this one
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/02/business/businessspecial/02doll.html?pagewanted=1&ei=5062&en=837d22e85ea51a4a&ex=1073710800&partner=GOOGLE

Analysts Hope the Weakening Dollar Will Avoid a Sudden Plunge
By JONATHAN FUERBRINGER

Published: January 2, 2004


HE dollar plunged against most of the world's currencies in 2003, putting in its third-worst performance since it began trading freely in the 1970's. It was the dollar's second consecutive annual decline, and many forecasters see a further weakening this year.

If contained, a decline in 2004 would generally be good for American business and for Americans investing abroad. But a sudden plunge of many percentage points, which some analysts say is possible, could undermine financial markets here and abroad.
snip>
"The dollar is one beaten-down beast," Mr. Gilmore said. And he warned that there was a chance the decline could be fast enough "for things to get ugly, for disorderly markets and for interest rates to go up and stocks to go down.''

"The risk is greater than 5 percent," he added, "and that is statistically significant."

Whether the dollar continues to fall - and, if so, how far and how fast - will depend to some extent on the Bush administration, which says it supports a strong dollar, on the one hand, but still has been lobbying China and Japan to allow their currencies to strengthen and let the dollar fall. This is believed to be part of an election strategy to help make American companies more competitive.

The Federal Reserve will also be an important player, as it is expected to begin raising its target for short-term interest rates this year, perhaps as early as midyear. Foreign exchange analysts are divided over whether higher rates will help or hurt the dollar.
snip>
The current account is Mr. Gilmore's principal reason for predicting a steep, though not disorderly, dollar decline this year. He says he does not think the country can attract the foreign capital needed to bridge the gap, given the dollar's current value. So it will fall further. "Admittedly, evidence of funding shortfall is hard to come by," he said. "But it sure feels that way."

Jeremy Fand, senior proprietary currency trader at WestLB in New York, is in the contrarian camp, predicting that the dollar will get help from the stronger American economy. But he said this support would materialize only when the Federal Reserve made it clear that interest rates were going higher. A rise in rates, Mr. Fand argued, would show that Fed policy makers were confident about the economic outlook.

"The current account becomes irrelevant when the Fed raises interest rates," he argued. "The dollar should rally."


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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. A dollar rally? We'll see
Of course it's hard to find any commentary in these fresh days of '04 that isn't hopeful. All voices are positive and that's all that matters, right? ;-)

3:04 and things are looking a bit grim, in spite of the cheerleading:

Dow 10,395.70 -58.22 (-0.56%)
Nasdaq 2,001.94 -1.43 (-0.07%)
S&P 500 1,106.23 -5.69 (-0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.373% +0.116

Money leaving the Markets and Treasuries. Hmmm.

Julie
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #37
38. Yep, but at least they buried the cheerleading at the
end instead of as the big banner headline. A refreshing change.;-)

And this should be my post 1000.

:toast:
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #38
41. Welcome to the 1000+ Club!
Round of drinks on the house!

:beer: :beer:
:beer: .......... :beer:
:beer: ............... :beer:
:beer: ................. :beer:
:beer: ................... :beer:
:beer: ................... :beer:
:beer: ................. :beer:
:beer: ............... :beer:
:beer: .......... :beer:
:beer: :beer:



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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #41
42. Thank you, your are quite the artistic type.
I am afraid I am not that talented :hi:
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #42
43. While I will not deny that in principle....
Edited on Fri Jan-02-04 03:55 PM by Maeve
Credit where credit is due! I got that from ZenLefty ages ago
and cut and paste it when applicable. The secret is in using
font color=white to get the spacing. Here, for the curious, is
the needed code:
[center][font color = white face=courier]
 :beer:  :beer: 
 :beer: .......... :beer: 
 :beer: ............... :beer: 
 :beer: ................. :beer: 
 :beer: ................... :beer: 
 :beer: ................... :beer: 
 :beer: ................. :beer: 
 :beer: ............... :beer: 
 :beer: .......... :beer: 
 :beer:  :beer: 
 
[/center][/font]

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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #43
46. Thanks! Very cool. I got knocked out of commission for a bit there....
Silly computers. Never understood how Microsoft made it to the top with an OS that needs you to reboot every so often. I mean come on, how many people would put up with a car the would just suddenly go dead, with no advanced warning, and all you could do was pull over to the side, wait a while and restart the dang thing!
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #46
48. We used to HAVE a car like that!
Bad thermostat, kept overheating....
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:49 PM
Response to Reply #48
49. HA! But, did you replace it with the same make and model?
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:53 PM
Response to Reply #49
50. Nah, just took it to a good mechanic
Who knew how to fix it! :P

Hubby is an AlphaGeek, so our computers run smooth as silk and never crash unless there is a hardware failure. Plus, we upgrade on a regular basis, so I'm the envy of the virtual neighborhood...

Good weekend, y'all! :hi:
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #37
39. But, but the 2004 party is just beginning. Where they all going?
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 03:42 PM
Response to Original message
40. 3:41 and the profits have been taken
Maybe get a bit of a last-minute rally in for appearances' sake

Dow 10,418.67 -35.25 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,005.47 +2.10 (+0.10%)

S&P 500 1,107.98 -3.94 (-0.35%)

10-Yr Bond 4.373% +0.116
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Maeve Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:03 PM
Response to Reply #40
44. No, no last minute rally
Dow 10,409.48 -44.44 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,006.68 +3.31 (+0.17%)

S&P 500 1,108.14 -3.78 (-0.34%)

10-Yr Bond 4.373% +0.116
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:33 PM
Response to Reply #44
45. a somewhat discouraging start
and this, before traders are back from the holidays.

I just don't buy the spin that '04 is going to be a fabulous year. I just can't see it happening. We'll see what's ahead soon enough though.

Hope all you marketeers have a great weekend!! :hi:

Julie
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-02-04 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #45
47. Monday should prove to be an interesting start.
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