Felix reaches hurricane status, expected to intensify

[krispos42]

Source: CNN.com

MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Felix strengthened into a hurricane over the Caribbean on Saturday, setting its sights on Aruba and prompting Jamaica to issue a tropical storm watch, forecasters said.

The storm's winds increased to 75 mph Saturday evening, making it a Category 1 hurricane -- the weakest on the Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, the National Hurricane Center said.

<snip>

Felix is expected to strengthen in the next 24 hours. At 8 p.m. ET, the hurricane was centered about 270 miles east of Aruba.

It was moving westward at about 18 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

<more>

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/weather/09/01/storm.felix/index.html

[RL3AO]

1. A little stronger. Hurricane Hunters in the system now.

[RL3AO]

2. Now a Category 2 hurricane.

Winds of 100 mph.

[RL3AO]

3. Probably a Cat 4 now.

[BadgerLaw2010]

4. Whoa, that was fast.

[RL3AO]

5. The NHC was semi-expecting rapid intensification.

One of the models gave it a 40% chance of happening.

[BadgerLaw2010]

6. Vortex burst that it's down to 957 since the last advisory. 132 knot FL winds

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/18:54:20Z
B. 13 deg 29 min N
071 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2703 m
D. 95 kt
E. 268 deg 008 nm
F. 356 deg 114 kt
G. 268 deg 007 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 8 C/ 3060 m
J. 16 C/ 3050 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 01 nm
P. AF305 0806A FELIX OB 12
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 17:21:10 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 18:57:10 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
STADIUM EFFECT

-

Nasty bugger. It can also stop turning NW this early.

[alfredo]

7. I notice a bit of a northward trend in the models, but not a lot.

There's not much disagreement in the models. Of course there's always one.

[ohio2007]

8. This is taking the track of Dean. in the meantime,48 hrs behind Felix

is another possible storm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm2+gif/022526123_sm.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204525.shtml?basin#contents
It's that time of year for Hurricane season

[RL3AO]

9. That area (98L) had a rough night but should be getting into a more favorable area.

Also, Felix is not moving NW.

[alfredo]

11. I wonder if it will follow the same track as Dean and Felix. Dean seemed

to trend down toward West, this one seems to be doing the opposite, but not by much. but yes it appears that is is going to finish what Dean started.

As you remember, Dean tracked north of where Felix is expected to travel. Felix seems to be hitting landfall close to where Dean hit. Of course tomorrow could bring a completely different model.


Dean


Felix

[RL3AO]

10. Now a Category 4

HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

...

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...13.6 N...72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

[alfredo]

12. Dean expected to be a Cat 5 by landfall.

[RL3AO]

13. Not quite. The NHC is forecasting 135kt.

Cat 5 is 140kt.

[alfredo]

14. I got my info from Weather Underground, yours may be more up to date.

[RL3AO]

15. That is an error on Wunderground.

They count 155mph as a Cat 5, when it is not officially a cat 5 until 160mph.

[alfredo]

16. 155- 160 one hell of a storm.

[BadgerLaw2010]

19. Cat 5 right now, 165 mph

[alfredo]

21. Paradise sucks this time of year. A second, and maybe a third

hurricane heading their way.

[BadgerLaw2010]

20. 956 to 934 in three hours??! Good god.

[RL3AO]

17. Newest sat picture

[highplainsdem]

18. The NHC says it's already Cat 5, as of 8 pm EDT advisory:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/022359.shtml


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

[shraby]

22. It became a cat. 5 Saturday night around 8 p.m.

The plane they sent into it had to abort the mission because it was too turbulent. It's a nasty 5.