Economy will hover near recession, forecast says

[RamboLiberal]

Source: LA Times

The nation's economy will be so sluggish well into next year that any major hiccup could tip it into recession, UCLA's latest economic forecast predicts.

The end of easy credit and a further decline in home construction are sending the economy into a "near-recession," with growth hovering at just above 1% through the first three months of 2008, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast to be released today.

The forecast presents a gloomier outlook for jobs and the housing market. The nation's unemployment rate will rise to 5.2% by mid-2008, up from the current 4.6%.

And home values will fall 10% to 15% from their peaks, the forecast says, meaning that sliding prices have yet to hit bottom.

"The small recent minimal declines represent not the end, but rather the beginning of what will be a very painful decline," David Shulman, author of the forecast, said in the report, referring to home prices.



Read more: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-economy12sep12,0,7770094.story?coll=la-home-center

[durablend]

1. It'll teeter on the brink until November 4th (2008)...

Then it'll collapse into a full depression and no doubt be the fault of the new Democrat president (along with everyone who voted for her/him)...Rush and his ilk will be sure to remind us of that fact.

[Demeter]

2. The GOP Ain't That Lucky

It will crash in October, as it always does. And nobody but mad King George and his corrupt cronies and Democratic enablers will get the blame.

[Kip Humphrey]

3. More like hover IN recession... Look:

The real old-fashioned economic stats here: http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/data

[Deja Q]

4. A prediction isn't reality.

Let's pray it doesn't become a reality.

[no_hypocrisy]

5. This is what happens when a majority of a population has to live within its

means and/or live in debt. Shut off the credit and stuff remains on the shelves and services not used.

[glowing]

6. I think this leaves an opening to bring into play a new direction...

Quality over quantity. Shoring up the infrastructure and making light rail a reality. And a market for renewable energy sources.

[PATRICK]

7. In 2000

even before inauguration, Cheney in particular was trying to pitch a recession that could be blamed on Clinton. 9/11 gave them cover for a major collapse, a "fluke" that persisted oddly throughout their entire watch. As it grimly "hover" they actually might provoke a hiccup to blame someone else again. It might be only a side dish of the Iran gambit but it is a necessary piece going into 2008 when the blame for the economy has to be blurred.

[Javaman]

8. we've been in a recession for the past 3 years.

it's just no one wants to tell the truth or look at the hard facts.

[Yavin4]

9. Actually, It Never Left The Recession of 2001

The only significant positive economic event since 2001 was the relaxing of credit which lead to a housing bubble.

In a nutshell, our economy since has been like losing your job, but you lived off of credit cards for 7 years.

[Javaman]

10. Very true. I stand corrected. nt