STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 27

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday September 27, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 481 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2456 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2168 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2129
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 26, 2007

Dow... 13,878.15 +99.50 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq... 2,699.03 +15.58 (+0.58%)
S&P 500... 1,525.42 +8.21 (+0.54%)
Gold future... 735.50 -3.30 (-0.45%)
30-Year Bond 4.89% +0.01 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.62% +0.01 (+0.13%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: The Calm Before the Storm?

BY MICHAEL PANZNER

Observers have been bewildered by the extent to which consumer sentiment and retail spending have held up in the face of an imploding housing market and worsening conditions in lending markets. Some speculate that it is because too many consumers still have access to credit cards and legacy lines of credit, or, perhaps, that the average American has temporarily swallowed the Washington-Wall Street line that things will somehow turn out all right in the end.

Regardless, a quick look at the relationship between a measure of how home builders are feeling about the future and the various gauges of consumer sentiment suggests a downturn in the latter is simply a matter of time. Given the large lead times and hefty sums involved, one would expect that contractors would be especially sensitive to changes in prospective buyer finances and purchasing plans. The collapse in the home builders index suggests it won’t be long before consumers change their tune.

-chart-

The Census Bureau today reported that August new orders for durable goods fell more than expected. However, the more interesting aspect of this data series may be the year-on-year percentage change in the ex-transportation component and its relationship to stock prices.

-cut-

Stocks finished higher in choppy trading, aided by end-of-quarter window dressing, news of a strike settlement at General Motors (+9.4%), and late-day speculation that a suitor may be eyeing Bear Stearns (+7.7%). A weaker-than-expected August durable goods report and continuing worries over credit market conditions tempered gains.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Warpy]

38. Panzer's guess about denial was the right one

plus a few people do still have a little wiggle room on those credit cards.

Anybody who has a job is living for today because he knows tomorrow will likely bring that pink slip and foreclosure notice. Plus, the back to school season has just ended and too much of that spending is no longer discretionary. The kid needs those new sneakers, coat and backpack because last year's are trashed and/or outgrown.

The interesting figures will be for the truly discretionary spending season of November-December. My own guess is that presents will turn practical and the working class luxuries of big screen TV sets, home theater audio and DVDRs will sit on the shelves.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM GDP-Final Q2
Briefing Forecast 4.0%
Market Expects 3.9%
Prior 4.0%

8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Final Q2
Briefing Forecast 2.7%
Market Expects 2.7%
Prior 2.7%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 09/22
Briefing Forecast 315K
Market Expects 320K
Prior 311K

10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index Aug
Briefing Forecast 25
Market Expects 24
Prior 25

10:00 AM New Home Sales Aug
Briefing Forecast 830K
Market Expects 825K
Prior 870K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

13. Initial Claims @ 298,000

01. U.S. continuing jobless claims up 11,000 to 2.55 mln
8:30 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 1 minute ago

02. U.S. 4-week avg. claims at lowest level since Aug. 4
8:30 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 1 minute ago

03. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims down 9,750 to 311,500
8:30 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 1 minute ago

04. U.S. weekly claims at lowest level since May
8:30 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 1 minute ago

05. U.S. weekly jobless claims down 15,000 to 298,000
8:30 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 1 minute ago

[UpInArms]

14. US 2Q GDP @ 3.8%

01. U.S. 2Q GDP revised down to 3.8% vs. 4% earlier
8:31 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 1 minute ago

02. U.S. 2Q GDP revision due to higher imports
8:31 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 1 minute ago

03. U.S. 2Q GDP core PCE price index revised up to 1.4% vs. 1.3%
8:31 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 1 minute ago

[UpInArms]

29. Drop in median new-home sales price biggest in 37 years - sales @ 795,000

01. U.S. Aug. new-home sales worse than 825,000 expected
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

02. Drop in median new-home sales price biggest in 37 years
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

03. U.S. Aug. median sales price down 7.5% in past year
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

04. U.S. Aug. new-home sales worse than 825,000 expected
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

05. Drop in median new-home sales price biggest in 37 years
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

06. U.S. Aug. new-home inventory 8.2 months supply
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

07. U.S. Aug. median sales price down 7.5% in past year
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

08. U.S. Aug. new-home sales weaker than 825,000 expected
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

09. U.S. Aug. new-home inventory 8.2 months supply
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

10. U.S. Aug. new-home sales fall 8.3% to 795,000 rate
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

11. U.S. Aug. new-home sales weaker than 825,000 expected
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

12. U.S. Aug. new-home sales fall 8.3% to 795,000 rate
10:00 AM ET, Sep 27, 2007 - 3 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

31. New-home sales plunge 8.3% to seven-year low

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/new-home-sales-plunge-83-seven-year/story.aspx?guid=%7B22E1E083%2DBA8B%2D4355%2DAC85%2D57D8B99C1C81%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of new homes dropped 8.3% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 795,000, the slowest sales since June 2000, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.

Sales are now down 21.2% in the past year, with no sign of a bottom in the crippled housing market.

August's sales pace was weaker than the 825,000 expected by economist surveyed by MarketWatch. In addition, sales in May, June and July were revised down.

The sales figures do not account for canceled sales contracts.

The median sales price fell 7.5% to $225,700 in August compared with a year earlier, the largest year-over-year decline in 37 years. The median price can be affected by the mix of homes sold between and within regions, and the price does not include nonmonetary incentives, such as upgrades, free vacations and new cars.

...more...

[Roland99]

46. Bush's ownership society just got PWN3D!!

[DemReadingDU]

49. PWN3D?

Whatever is this?

[Roland99]

54. It's geekspeak...or gamer-speak, to be more specific.

Sorta like the MTV "Punked"


You got OWNED but spelled in geekspeak, PWN3D

[DemReadingDU]

58. LOL

:rofl:

[UpInArms]

34. US Aug newspaper help-wanted index hits (all time) record low of 23

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00321020070927

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The number of help-wanted ads printed in U.S. newspapers declined to a record low in August as job growth slowed in the United States, a private research group said on Thursday.

The Conference Board said its gauge measuring help-wanted ad volume fell to an all-time low of 23 in August, following 25 in July. It was 29 in August 2006. The Conference Board has been tracking the data since 1951.

"The slump in home buying and building, higher gas prices and grocery prices, and credit availability questions have combined to weaken the overall economy, drain consumer confidence and slow labor market," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the Conference Board, in a statement.

[zelda7743]

64. Help Wanted Ads

Hi UIA,
Does this number also take into account the fact that industries are utilizing internet-based searches rather than newspapers? Our company advertises positions on Craig's list for free and gets a much better response than advertising in the newspaper.

[UpInArms]

67. hi zelda7743,

yes, I do believe that this report now takes into consideration the various methods of advertising for help wanted (iirc)

thanks!

[UpInArms]

51. Chicago Fed Midwest factory activity down in Aug

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSCHB00036420070927

CHICAGO, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The Chicago Federal Reserve
Bank said on Thursday its Midwest manufacturing index was lower
in August, hurt by weakness in the steel and machinery
sectors.

The index fell 0.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted 105.6
from a downwardly revised 105.9 in July, originally reported at
106.0.

Compared with a year earlier, Midwest output was up just
0.1 percent, trailing the 1.6 percent national increase.

Three of the four broad segments tracked by the Fed fell in
August while the fourth, autos, rose marginally.

Midwest machinery sector output fell by 0.9 percent after
advancing by 1.6 percent in July. Regional production in the
segment was down 1.2 percent from a year ago against a national
increase of 5.6 percent.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise above $81 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose by a dollar a barrel Thursday, extending overnight gains as a tropical depression near Mexico raised concerns about possible disruptions to oil and gas production there.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose $1 to $81.30 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore.

November Brent crude added 74 cents to $78.17 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange in London.

A tropical depression put parts of Mexico's Gulf Coast under a storm watch Thursday, while Tropical Storm Karen strengthened to near hurricane status in the open Atlantic Ocean.

-cut-

In its weekly report, the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels during the week ended Sept. 21, countering the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires that oil supplies would fall by 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline inventories grew by 600,000 barrels last week, three times the 200,000-barrel increase analysts had expected.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Lead content prompts more toy recalls!!

WASHINGTON - Toys and children's necklaces made in China were recalled Wednesday, including five more items from the popular Thomas & Friends Wooden Railway product line, because they contain dangerous levels of lead.

---

The recalls include:

• About 23,500 more necklaces, bracelets and pendants imported by TOBY N.Y.C. of New York. This expands the company's recall of jewelry sets announced on Aug. 22. The recalled products were sold at T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, A.J. Wright, Cracker Barrel and Shopko stores nationwide from August 2006 through August 2007. For more information, call the company at 866-235-0588.

• About 850 children's Spinning Wheel Necklace necklaces, produced by Rhode Island Novelty of Cumberland, R.I. The necklaces were sold nationwide from November 2006 through May 2007. For more information, call the company 800-528-5599 or visit its Web site at http://www.rinovelty.com.

• Happy Giddy Gardening Tools and Children's Sunny Patch Chairs, imported by Target Corp. of Minneapolis, Minn. The recall involves 350,000 of the toys. The gardening tools and chairs were manufactured by Starite International Ltd. of Taiwan. The toys were sold nationwide from August 2006 through August 2007. For more information, contact Target at 800-440-0680 or visit its Web site at http://www.target.com.

• About 200,000 Thomas and Friends Wood Railway Toys and 800 Britain's "Knights of the Sword" series toys, distributed by RC2 Corp., of Oak Brook, Ill. The five recalled Thomas and Friends items, sold nationwide from March 2003 through September 2007, include the all-black cargo car, toad vehicle, olive green sodor cargo box and all-green maple tree top and signal base accessories. The "Knights of the Sword" recalled toys products include three items: a mounted silver knight on a red horse with an ax; a mounted silver knight on a red horse with two hands on a raised weapon; and a mounted silver knight on a red horse with a lance. The products were sold at specialty toy stores nationwide from April 2004 through March 2006. For more information, contact RC2 at 866-725-4407 or visit the firm's Web site at http://recalls.rc2.com.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070927/ap_on_bi_ge/toy_recall

[ozymandius]

5. and this

• About 16,000 children's toy rakes imported by Jo-Ann Stores Inc., of Hudson, Ohio. The rakes, each about 24 inches long with a yellow duck head attached to the green handle, were sold only at Jo-Ann Fabric and Craft Stores from January 2007 from September 2007. For more information, contact the company at 888-739-4120, option 7, or visit the firm's Web site at http://www.joann.com/.

• An estimated 10,000 Floor Puppet Theaters produced by Guidecraft Inc., of Englewood, N.J. The recalled puppet theaters, each with a chalkboard surface on the front and colored side panels, were sold nationwide in specialty toy stores, gift shops, catalogs and Web sites from June 2006 through August 2007. For more information, contact the company at 888-824-1308 or visit its Web site at http://www.guidecraft.com.

[AnneD]

36. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. I can imagine this has had a big impact in the Ozy household, Thomas is so popular with the wee ones-along with others. Being a School Nurse in poor urban area-I have dealt with lead poisoning. I use to be the Nurse in a mainly Hispanic section so lead is a constant problem from cultural things like unglazed pottery and folk medicines like grito and lead sealed tin cans of food, to poverty issues like older housing. It can be checked by a blood test and when we did a school wide screening once in our school, we had a few families of kids that tested positive. Their house had to have all the paint specially stripped and the kids had to go on medicine. They were on the therapy for a while because the meds attract and bond with the lead and is excreted out of the body. It takes a while, but it does a good job. It doesn't affect the adult neuro system (we think) like it does the developing child neuro system.

Well, the military is cracking down in Burma and the people are totally screwed. The governments that can help. China and Russia are not known for their human rights (America, until recently had a slightly better record-but we won't talk about that). The difference with this revolt? In the past, they have been able to draw a curtain over the country and yes, they can control what comes in, but it seems they are having trouble with info getting out. I wish those fighting for their rights the very best. History has not been kind to Burma. It could be an economic powerhouse in the region-going toe to toe with Thailand. Instead, the Generals have sunk the people and the economy to something below Cambodia-and that is pretty hard to do. All of this won't affect us or the Marketplace much. But remember, there but for the grace of God go I and remember-most of humanity does live in difficult positions.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears...

[Hugin]

40. Morning AnneD...

:hangover:

Having grown up in the era where lead was in everything from the printing on cereal boxes to the gasoline in
the cars (and having read statistics of the burden of lead still carried in the bodies of those of us who
grew up in that age) I honestly thought it was a demon we had eliminated... I guess not. Looks like we'll
have to be forever vigilant. One has to stop and wonder, what *ELSE* is being added to what we consume?

It's beginning to look like the main cost savings of outsourcing isn't a reduction in labor costs, but,
via dodging laws and regulations designed to protect the customer and public health. Figures... :eyes:

Yet, the FRidjuts are still clamoring for the elimination of the FDA.

[Hugin]

23. Oh, man! Not the 'Happy Giddy Gardening Tools'!

All the joy just left my life. ;(

[AnneD]

37. FYI....

Prag....as long as you stop eating your meals with the tools, you'll be ok.:rofl:

[54anickel]

42. NOOOOO!!!! NOT THOMAS!

My great nephew's favorite!!! He even has Thomas training pants that he talks to...."Don't worry Thomas, I won't poop on you".

We always watch Thomas together when it's my turn to babysit. Imagine my surprise when I saw Narrarator - George Carlin scroll down the screen the first time I watched it with him. :wow: I'm sure it's old news to most, but I never knew that before!

[Hugin]

43. At one point...

Ringo had something to do with Thomas, as well.

According to AnneD pooping on Thomas poses little lead exposure danger. :D

However, you should encourage your great nephew not to put any questionable items in his mouth and
to wash his hands frequently (a good idea anyway).

[AnneD]

48. My nephews and nieces were the 1st generation...

of underoos wearers. The superheroes were it.

I remember Romper Room, Captain Kangaroo, Mighty Mouse (Colgate toothpaste, opera) and Popeye (spinach), Bugs Bunny (classical music), Roy Rodgers and Dale Evans (the Cowboy Code), the Lone Ranger (we worshiped Jay Silver-heels in our house), The Cisco Kid, the Micky Mouse Club (it was not my fav except for the cartoons), Soupy Sales, Bozo, and Superman. And frankly, I wouldn't trade all the underoos in the world. It was a golden age when kids were entertained-not marketed to.

[ozymandius]

6. BA ditches Boeing jumbo for Airbus A380

LONDON (Reuters) - British Airways ended decades of loyalty to Boeing's 747 jumbo with a switch to Airbus's new A380 superjumbo on Thursday as it announced a mixed plane order worth up to $8.2 billion.

The order for 12 superjumbos from Airbus and 24 787 Dreamliners from Boeing Co will replace 34 of the airline's older longhaul planes.

BA Chief Executive Willie Walsh told reporters the airline would use the superjumbo to make best use of its limited take-off slots at London's crowded Heathrow airport.

He denied the company had experienced political pressure to buy the superjumbo, the wings and engines of which will be built in Britain.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070927/bs_nm/britishairways_dc

[ozymandius]

7. Group wants out of $25B Sallie Mae deal

WASHINGTON - A group of investors that had planned to buy student lender Sallie Mae for $25 billion now wants out of the deal, saying the current economic environment and legislation being signed by President Bush on Thursday make the terms no longer acceptable.

The group led by private-equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co. has told Sallie Mae it doesn't plan to complete the $60-a-share deal negotiated in April, though it is open to discussing new terms. Sallie Mae, the nation's largest student lender and officially known as SLM Corp., vowed Wednesday to pursue legal remedies against the investors.

The investor group has insisted in recent months that new student loan legislation being signed Thursday by President Bush could kill the deal. The measure will cut about $20 billion in federal subsidies to companies like Sallie Mae that make student loans while halving the interest rate on government-backed student loans.

-cut-

The blowup over one of the world's largest private-equity takeover deals capped several months of rancorous back-and-forth and disputed claims between Sallie Mae and the investor group. It comes against a backdrop of weakness in the once-booming private-equity industry, which has stumbled in recent months as an acute squeeze in credit markets has caused investors to balk at financing big deals.

Buyout firms like Flowers — which acquire public companies and take them private, restructure them and then sell them a few years later at a profit — had been riding a wave of easy credit but recently have found it harder to persuade their bankers to finance takeovers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070927/ap_on_bi_ge/sallie_mae_buyout

[ozymandius]

8. Italian wine production at 50-year low

SOAVE, Italy - The time-honored traditions of Italian winemaking have been thrown out of rhythm by the earliest harvest on record in 70 years.

There was little autumn picking this year. In some wine regions, growers began to harvest grapes during the first 10 days of August. In Soave, renowned for its white wines, the harvest started a month early — Sept. 1 for the traditional wines made from a crush of Garganega grapes, and earlier for grapes to make bubbly Spumante.

It has been a year of inversions: While the north basked in a July heat wave, the south suffered an unusual rainy season, meaning a northern boom of succulent early grapes has been offset by a bust of sorts in the south, where a deadly fungus spread through vineyards, cutting yields in wine-rich Sicily — one of Italy's top four wine regions — by 30 percent.

Consequently, Italian wine producers are forecasting their lowest production in 50 years: 1.14 billion gallons, down 13 percent from a year ago, along with an increase in prices of up to 30 percent, said Giancarlo Prevarin, president of the Italian Winemakers Association.

-cut-

This year's bumper crop comes at a moment of renaissance for Italian wines, which eclipsed French wines in U.S. sales in 2002, according to the Italian Winegrowers Association. Soave growers also note that white wines have found favor among diners seeking lighter fare — a turnaround from the era they refer to as the "French paradox" when reports on the health benefits of red wines crashed the white wine market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070926/ap_on_bi_ge/italy_early_harvest

[Hugin]

22. and there it is... That is what's wrong with this World!

:o

[ozymandius]

9. Bear Stearns May Draw Investment From Buffett, Banks (Update1)

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Bear Stearns Cos. may be close to selling a stake to Warren Buffett or a financial institution as the beleaguered securities firm struggles to revive earnings and its stock price.

Buffett, the 77-year-old billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., contacted Bear Stearns Chief Executive Officer James ``Jimmy'' Cayne, 73, a month ago, the New York Times reported yesterday in its online edition, citing unidentified people. Other potential investors are Bank of America Corp., Wachovia Corp., and two Chinese companies, Citic Group and China Construction Bank Corp., the Times said. Bear Stearns shares rose 7.7 percent on the report.

The talks may signal that Bear Stearns, the fifth-biggest U.S. securities firm, needs cash after mortgage-related losses led to its biggest drop in quarterly earnings in more than a decade. By partnering with a larger U.S. or Chinese bank, New York-based Bear Stearns could become more competitive in international markets, where it trails rivals including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

-cut-

Buffett's Interest

Billionaire Joseph Lewis, the British-born, Bahamas-based currency trader, paid $860 million for a 7 percent stake in Bear Stearns before the company reported a 61 percent decline in third-quarter earnings. Bear Stearns shares fell to a two-year low of $103.15 on Aug. 15, and closed up $8.76 at $123 in New York Stock Exchange composite trading yesterday.

Buffett contacted Cayne last month when the stock approached $100, the Times reported, adding that Bear Stearns executives are no longer insisting that a buyer pay a 40 percent premium for a stake in the company. Buffett bought 12 percent of New York-based Salomon Brothers in 1987 to protect the securities firm against a takeover by corporate raider Ronald O. Perelman. Salomon was sold in 1997 to Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajCjw4hpljwI&refer=home

[ozymandius]

10. Global Stocks, U.S. Futures Rise; DSM, China Telecom Advance

Sept. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Stocks in Europe and Asia climbed on speculation a U.S. home sales report today will give the Federal Reserve more room to cut interest rates. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures rose.

Royal DSM NV gained in Europe after the world's biggest maker of vitamins raised its profit forecast for this year and announced a share buyback. Nordea Bank AB surged after Dagens Industri reported SEB AB plans to buy the Swedish state's 19.9 percent stake in the bank. China Telecom Corp. jumped the most in nine months on a report that the country's phone industry will come under review. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. rose in German trading.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International World Index added 0.7 percent to 1,627.13, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.3 percent to 1,541.4 as of 10:43 a.m. in London.

``The economic data we are seeing suggests another rate cut is on the cards,'' said Espen Furnes, who helps manage the equivalent of $7.1 billion at Storebrand Asset Management in Oslo. ``Investors are more positive.''

Asian stocks gained, driving Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index above 27,000 for the first time. U.S. stocks recorded their biggest advance in a week yesterday after General Motors Corp. agreed on a contract with the United Auto Workers and investors speculated billionaire Warren Buffett will buy a stake in Bear Stearns Cos.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=abn0SP.h3jOU

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.233 Change -0.261 (-0.33%)

US Dollar is Struggling to Recover, Watch Out for GDP and New Home Sales

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_is_Struggling_to_1190840910221.html

The US dollar is struggling to recover ahead of tomorrow’s figures for final second quarter GDP and new home sales. Strength was seen against all of the major currency pairs with the exception of the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The strike has ended at GM which means that the impact on non-farm payrolls will be limited. A strike needs to last at least a month for the impact to be meaningful. Despite the weakness of the US dollar, durable goods dropped 4.9 percent in August, which was the largest drop in seven months. Fed fund futures are continuing to price in 50bp of easing by the end of the year and tomorrow’s data will go a long way in confirming or denying that. Existing home sales have already fallen to a 5 year low and new homes are not expected to be pretty either. This of course has been discounted by the market which leaves GDP as the wildcard. Growth was hot in the second quarter, but it could be revised down to as much as 3.6 percent. At this point, there is no reason to expect dollar weakness to end even though prices are simply consolidating at the moment, leaving many currency pairs range bound. On a side note, Martin Wolf made a great point in today’s Financial Times. He said that “The resolution of each crisis lays the seeds of the next.” The Federal Reserve has often resorted to lowering interest rates to get the economy out of a financial crisis, but easier monetary policy is exactly what has been blamed for creating the bubble that we have now. Therefore as the Fed continues to lower rates in reaction to softer economic data, inflation can return with a vengeance. One of the biggest disadvantages of a weak US dollar is its impact on inflation. Coupled with the high level of oil prices and the Federal Reserve may actually under deliver on rate cuts if the credit markets stabilize.

...more...

Japanese Yen Shows Clear Signs of Potential Breakout

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/weekly_range/Japanese_Yen_Shows_Clear_Signs_1190842123282.html

Implied volatility is one of the most tried and true methods for objectively measuring expected volatility in the spot market. Derived from currency options with different maturities, implied volatilities are used to help predict potential movements in the spot market and is one of the most popular strategies of systems traders and other professional hedge funds.

At its most fundamental, the basic and intuitive interpretation of this implied data is often the most telling for traders. Taken alone, a steady rise in the longer-term implied volatility (the red line) is indicative of a strengthening trend; while inversely, a decline often reveals that a period of range or consolidation in spot is ahead or already in place. Additionally, the histogram or spread between the shorter and longer-term implied volatilities (the blue colored bars) tells a different perspective. As the histogram rises, volatility is expected to pick up faster in the near future relative to the longer-term range. Ultimately, this increases the probability of a breakout scenario in the underlying currency.

...more...

[spotbird]

15. YIKES!

We might hit the low again today.

[UpInArms]

12. Fed must be terrified: Fed undertaking 14-day repo to add reserves

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYG00076220070927

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was undertaking a 14-day repurchase agreement to add temporary reserves to the banking system.

Federal funds were trading steady at 5.06 percent in the market after the Fed announced the operation.

[UpInArms]

24. Fed adds $6 billion reserves via 14-day repo

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2732778020070927

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it had added $6 billion in reserves to the banking system via a 14-day repurchase agreement.

[UpInArms]

25. Fed adds $20 bln in reserves through 7-day repos

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYD00010120070927

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $20 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system through 7-day repurchase agreements.

The Fed said the collateral accepted on the 7-day repurchase was made up of $4.8 billion of Treasuries, $6.7 billion of agencies and $8.5 billion of mortgage-backed securities. A total of $43 billion in bids were submitted for the 7-day repurchase.

[UpInArms]

27. Fed adds $7 bln in reserves through 4-day repos

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYD00010220070927

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $7 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system through 4-day repurchase agreements.

The Fed said the collateral accepted on the 4-day repurchase was made up of $2.6 billion of agencies and $4.4 billion of mortgage-backed securities. A total of $29.7 billion in bids were submitted for the 4-day repurchase.

[UpInArms]

32. Fed adds $5 bln in reserves through overnight repos

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYD00010320070927

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $5 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements.

The Fed said the collateral accepted on the overnight repurchase was made up of $588 million of agencies and $4.412 billion of mortgage-backed securities. A total of $48.75 billion in bids were submitted for the overnight repurchase.

[Buttercup McToots]

35. Today???

OMG

[Hugin]

33. Sub-total: $38 Billion. (With a 'B')

or so my fancy 8th grade cyphering says...

[UpInArms]

41. Fed adds total $38 bln reserves on Thurs via repos

(confirms your addition :) )

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2735173720070927

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added a total of $38 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system through four separate repurchase agreements.

The total amount matched $38 billion of repurchase operations on Aug. 10, which was the largest amount of repurchase operations in a single day since Sept 19, 2001, when the Fed undertook $50.35 billion of repurchase agreements.

Thursday's operations included $6 billion of 14-day repurchase agreements, $20 billion of 7-day repurchase agreements, $7 billion of 4-day repurchase agreements and $5 billion of overnight repurchase agreements.

The 7-day repurchase on Thursday was the largest single such operation since Aug. 15, 2003, when the Fed also added $20 billion in a single, 3-day repurchase agreement, a Fed spokesman said.

...more...

[Hugin]

44. Nice to know I've still got it...

In spite of all the lead I eat. :)

[Roland99]

47. Gotta prep for that cost-conscious Iraq spending bill (and screw the sick kids)

[Demeter]

53. Pumping Like Mad!

When does the Fed run out of Funny Money, anyway? There must be some kind of natural limit.

[AnneD]

56. Once again....

A pump works by creating a vacumn and thus sucking up water to create an equilibrium. Thus the Fed's aren't pumping-the Fed's are sucking...Let's keep this accurate;)

[TrogL]

61. They're priming the pump (pun intended)

If you're trying to suck up water from too great a distance, you need to establish the flow somehow, so you put water into the pump then run it and the water you just put in pulls the other water along with it.

[Buttercup McToots]

16. Holy Moly Batman...$US 78.08..... @8:46

:wow:

[Buttercup McToots]

17. USD $78.05 @ 9:56 am

Will it go below $78?

:eyes:

[Roland99]

26. Oh it's $85 if you adjust for inflation, rigth?

;-)

[Hugin]

28. There is NO inflation!

:sarcasm: <--- Read before you flame... The friend you save may be your own.

[Roland99]

30. Silly me!

[AnneD]

39. Well if there is no inflation....

you need to change your bumper stickers and Ozy needs to change the thread opener before the 'Committee for Truthful Thinking' cracks down on us

[UpInArms]

18. KB Home posts quarterly loss

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2727464320070927

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - KB Home (KBH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Thursday posted a fiscal third quarter loss, as the U.S. home market suffered a deepening decline in demand, a swelling supply of homes for sale and tighter standards in the mortgage market.

KB Home, the No. 5 U.S. home builder, reported a net loss of $35.6 million, or 46 cents per share, in its fiscal third quarter that ended Aug. 31, versus a profit of $153.2 million, or $1.90 per share, a year earlier.

The company reported a loss from continuing operations of $478.6 million, or $6.19 per share, due largely to pretax non-cash charges of $690.1 million related to the lower value of land and $107.9 million related to goodwill impairment.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. SEC steps up probes of hedge insider trading

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2627270720070927?sp=true

GREENWICH, Connecticut (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is conducting more than 30 investigations into potential hedge fund manager misconduct in the northeast United States alone, with more in other parts of the country, officials said on Wednesday.

The investigations into potential insider trading, faulty asset valuation, conflicts of interest and other misdeeds are under way despite the agency's setback last year when a federal court struck down a rule requiring the lightly regulated hedge funds to register as investment advisers.

"Whether you are registered or not, we at the enforcement division believe we have the tools to detect insider trading," Bruce Karpati, New York-based assistant regional director for the SEC's Division of Enforcement, said at a hedge fund conference in Connecticut.

"There are obviously active investigations on this front."

<snip>

Blumenthal, whose state has seen some of the biggest hedge fund debacles including the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, Bayou Group and Amaranth Advisors, said any move toward increased federal regulation is all but dead for now.

...more...

[Buttercup McToots]

20. Oh My aching head...

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie092707.html


The longer term trend is revealing also. Immediately after the official rate cut decision, the 10-year TNote yield rose. Market watchers noticed. Pundits commented upon the anomaly. Not enough attention has been brought to this anomaly. THE LONG END HAS SEEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATES, INDICATIVE OF THE ONSET OF WORSE PRICE INFLATION. The 10-year TNote yield has fluctuated in a tight range between 4.55% and 4.70% for the last several days. Clearly, many bond traders are shifting from long-term maturity bonds to short-term bonds, to reduce risk. My interpretation is that the bond market anticipates a highly likely trend of price inflation in the coming quarters. Another ugly implication is the housing market might not receive much assistance from the lending rate structure, in particular for fixed mortgage rates.

CONFIRMATION OF WORST OF BOTH WORLDS
Foreigners should tremble with a falling USDollar exchange rate coupled with a rising long-term bond yield. Investment funds in China or Japan or the Saudis or Arab nations face a double loss, one from bond principal and two from currency exchange. This rebellion in the 10-year and 30-year TBonds represents the ultimate nightmare in frustration for the hampered hamstrung hidebound US Federal Reserve. A steeper USTreasury yield curve is a horrible scenario, a confirmation of stagflation potential, and a failure on both ends of their policy initiatives. The USFed wants low price inflation with economic growth. STAGFLATION means the opposite on both scores, a double failure.

STAGFLATION IS THE OPTIMAL CONDITION FOR GOLD, AS THE ECONOMY STALLS, MONEY IS PUMPED INTO THE SYSTEM, BUT PRICE INFLATION RISES. The bigger picture trend can be seen with a chart over almost three years in the USTreasury Yield Curve. Notice the moving average crossover in June, when the 20-week MA traversed above the 50-week MA. Serious gyrations have been seen in August and September, in market uncertainty. After months and months of utter stupidity in economic analysis, proclaiming a strong USEconomy, the envy of the world, the haven of the downtrodden, the USFed finally acknowledges the tide has shifted toward the other side. The world sees the United States as a land of a deflating housing bubble, the site of an unspeakable asset-backed bond fraud, and the location of desperate central bank policy fully exported to other central banks. The steeper USTreasury Yield Curve, simply stated, should be regarded as a loud statement that the future prices of items of all kinds will be higher than today. Like in any other commodity market, the steeper future prices of money indicates we have entered the price inflation picture. What is true of a natural gas steep curve, or a copper metal steep curve, is true in the price of money itself also.

[Buttercup McToots]

21. Can you say NATIONAL INSOLVENCY???

snip:
same article

Lastly, a little noticed event took place. The USGovt just received early approval of a lift in the official federal debt limit. The previous limit in force has been $8965 billion. The new limit is set to become $9820 billion, another cool trillion$. The USGovt federal debt has risen by double since the current diminutive leader took office in January 2001. The higher limit will enable additional debts to be authorized by the federal government. Do foreigners have an appetite for them, or are they entrenched in the early stages of a boycott, as stated in my prediction? Meanwhile, net foreign capital inflows have dropped from $181.9 billion in Q1 to $150.9 billion in Q2. The bad news is that this might be insufficient to cover the Current Account deficit of $190.79 billion in Q2. The US financial balance sheet is in trouble. Can you say NATIONAL INSOLVENCY??? The historical response is for fast rising interest rates generally in defense. Increasing desperation will be very evident in the coming months. Gold will head toward $1000. In time, whether triggered by $800 gold or the passage of six weeks time for money to filter down to the junior mining niche of stocks, the HUI will be vaulting to new highs!!!

[Amonester]

45. On the way to 10 Trillion$ ("more-or-less" official)...

http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

[lovuian]

50. Bottomline we can't keep paying for this war

and its a fact eventually going to be learned

[burf]

52. When did the debt ceiling get raised?

I haven't heard anything. I guess it was unimportant and the great unwashed should not concern themselves with such matters. Just go back to packiing shit (A line from Monty Python's In Search of the Holy Grail) and then go shopping!

[AnneD]

57. When you and everyone else wasn't looking....

While Ahmediajad was addressing the UN I think.

[DemReadingDU]

59. I'm not sure it's been raised yet

9/26/07
The Senate nears an Oct. 1 deadline for increasing the federal debt limit. It's the fifth time during the Bush administration the ceiling has been reached.

If the debt limit, currently at $8.965 trillion, is not raised in the next few weeks, Treasury issuance of debt securities would be curtailed.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, in a letter seeking Senate action on an increase to $9.815 trillion, cited "current developments in financial markets, which would be exacerbated by uncertainty in the Treasury market."
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-wed_barnhart0926sep26,0,1859301.column


On Sept. 12, the Senate Finance Committee approved a bill to increase the debt limit by $850 billion, to a total of $9.815 trillion. The bill will now move to the Senate floor, where adoption is almost assured.
http://www.ombwatch.org/article/articleview/3993/

I am unable to find any links that show the ceiling actually was raised.

[AnneD]

60. Neither have I....

but I have been hearing a lot of chatter. Every thing I have been seeing points to Oct 1 too. And now that I think about it, I think I did read some discussion while Amedinajad was talking. Look for a distraction on Oct 1....cue either the blue eyed blonde child or OJ.

[Amonester]

70. See my reply (#68) down here. n/t

[Amonester]

69. See my reply (#68) down here. n/t

[TrogL]

63. it's actually "Monty Python and the Holy Grail"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Python_and_the_Holy_Grail

[Amonester]

68. Congress OKs Bill to Keep Gov't Running

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3008682

[AnneD]

72. Then it wasn't my imagination

I thought I read something. And I'll bet the media WAS distracting us with Amedenijad.

[DemReadingDU]

71. See reply (#68)

[TrogL]

62. All Gold Bugs should be taken out and shot

To them it's always optimal conditions for gold.

[TrogL]

55. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-08-27 Monday, August 27 0.951022 USD
2007-08-28 Tuesday, August 28 0.941974 USD
2007-08-29 Wednesday, August 29 0.944109 USD
2007-08-30 Thursday, August 30 0.946342 USD
2007-08-31 Friday, August 31 0.94697 USD
2007-09-03 Monday, September 3 0.94697 USD
2007-09-04 Tuesday, September 4 0.953016 USD
2007-09-05 Wednesday, September 5 0.951656 USD
2007-09-06 Thursday, September 6 0.949307 USD
2007-09-07 Friday, September 7 0.948227 USD
2007-09-10 Monday, September 10 0.949487 USD
2007-09-11 Tuesday, September 11 0.958773 USD
2007-09-12 Wednesday, September 12 0.964134 USD
2007-09-13 Thursday, September 13 0.968617 USD
2007-09-14 Friday, September 14 0.971628 USD
2007-09-17 Monday, September 17 0.970214 USD
2007-09-18 Tuesday, September 18 0.977135 USD
2007-09-19 Wednesday, September 19 0.985513 USD
2007-09-20 Thursday, September 20 0.998901 USD
2007-09-21 Friday, September 21 0.999201 USD
2007-09-24 Monday, September 24 0.998901 USD
2007-09-25 Tuesday, September 25 0.9995 USD
2007-09-26 Wednesday, September 26 0.99552 USD
2007-09-27 Thursday, September 27 0.99691 USD


Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD) (I'm hoping to write teh script to make this pretty today)

Market Open High Low Last Change Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash 1.0017 1.0017 0.9969 0.9971 +0.0023 +0.23% 14:01
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0027 1.0027 0.9965 0.9993 +0.0039 +0.39% 14:47
CD.H08 Mar 2008 0.9998 0.9998 0.9987 0.9992 +0.0034 +0.34% 14:01
CD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9495 0.9495 0.9961 -0.0042 -0.42% set 15:20
CD.U08 Sep 2008 0.9997 0.9997 0.9990 0.9990 +0.0028 +0.28% 13:01
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9530 0.9530 0.9530 0.9959 -0.0042 -0.42% set 15:20
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.9953 0.9953 0.9953 0.9953 -0.0042 -0.42% set 15:21

Other combinations: (this will be a table too)

AU.Z07 AUSTRALIAN $/US$ Dec (NYBOT) 0.87815 +0.00180
HY.Z07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Dec (NYBOT) 114.425 +0.720
GB.Z07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Dec (NYBOT) 0.70095 -0.00295
EP.Z07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Dec (NYBOT) 1.41835 -0.00415
EJ.Z07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 162.34 +0.49
EU.Z07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Sep (NYBOT) 1.41725 +0.00200


Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight hinting that a three-day correction might be ending. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at .9911 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above last week's high crossing at 100.70 are needed to renew this year's rally. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening in early-day session trading.


Analysis

(from yesterday)

>The bot's wrong. It's calling for a top. I'm not.

Yep. It's a brave new world out there. It's time the ino-bot figured that out. The market bots certainly have (which is probably self-fulfilling prophecy).

[ozymandius]

65. floor sweeping time

Dow 13,912.94 Up 34.79 (0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,709.59 Up 10.56 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,531.38 Up 5.96 (0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.573% Down 0.047
NYSE Volume 2,906,570,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,789,295,000

4:25 pm : The stock market proved to be resilient Thursday, finishing moderately higher in the face of mixed economic news and high oil prices. Weekly Initial Claims were surprisingly better than expected, while new home sales reached their lowest level in more than seven years.

The stock market opened on a high note, helped in part by a Wall Street Journal article that indicated J.C. Flowers, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase are open to renegotiating their agreement to acquire student lender SLM Corp (SLM 49.12, +4.11).

Microsoft (MSFT 29.49, -.01) also gave a boost to the stock market's opening after it was reported that its video game "Halo 3" generated $170 million during its first 24 hours, which makes it the most successful release in U.S. entertainment history.

The major indices didn't show much reaction, though, to the Department of Labor's Initial Claims report. The report for the week ended September 22 showed that jobless claims dropped to 298k versus the consensus estimate that was set at 320K. The claims level is well below normal recession levels.

Stocks dipped ever-so-slightly after the New Home Sales report for August showed an 8.3% decline to an annualized rate of 795K. Economists expected a drop of 5.2%.

The weak report fueled speculation that the FOMC will again be inclined to cut interest rates at its October meeting. That consideration acted as a mitigating factor that kept selling efforts in check following the disappointing report.

The dollar index reached its lowest level today since the inception of the index in 1973. The dollar index eased off its lows at close, but still fell 0.2% to 78.338. The CRB Commodity Price Index jumped 1.4%. Notably, crude oil rallied 3.5% to $83.09 and gold rose 0.6% to $739.90.

The materials (+1.0%), energy (+0.9%), and financial (+0.8%) sectors provided leadership today for the broader market.

Utilities (-0.7%) and consumer discretionary (-0.1%) were the only sectors in the red today. Consumer discretionary was a leader yesterday, but weakness in General Motors (GM 36.46, -1.18 ) following Wednesday's 9.4% increase weighed on the sector.

The Personal Income and Consumption report will be released on Friday by the Dept. of Commerce at 08:30 ET. Briefing.com, and the market, expect a 0.4% increase in both income and consumption. Core PCE inflation is expected to rise 0.1%.

Other economic reports, including Chicago PMI, the revision to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey, and Construction Spending will also be released tomorrow. DJ30 +34.79 NASDAQ +10.56 SP500 +5.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1231/1737/1.77 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1080/2206/1.18 bln

[UpInArms]

66. TABLE-U.S. M-2 money supply up $18.9 bln Sept 17 week

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00321220070927

$18.9 billion in the Sept. 17 week to $7,370.3 billion, the
Federal Reserve said on Thursday.
The Fed said the four-week moving average of M-2 was
$7,371.6 billion vs. $7,362.6 billion in the previous week.
Following are the details of the money supply report, and
the Fed's H.3 and H.4 reports:
One week ended September 17 (billions dlrs)

    Latest  Change        Prev week  Rvsd from
M-1....1,359.5 down...17.2 vs 1,376.7.....1,373.8
M-2....7,370.3 up.....18.9 vs 7,351.4.....7,348.5
M-2 Avg 4 wks (Vs Wk ago)..7,371.6  vs ...7,362.6
Monthly aggregates (Adjusted avgs in billions)
M-1 (Aug vs July).........1,367.7 vs.....1,368.7
M-2 (Aug vs July).........7,333.6 vs.....7,269.2

Federal Reserve's H.3 and H.4 report:
Two Weeks Ended September 26 daily avgs-mlns (H.3)

Free Reserves...601 vs.rvsd......-879
Bank Borrowings..............1,364 vs..........2,250
Seasonal Loans..230 vs............232
Excess Reserves..............1,965 vs..........1,371
Required Reserves (Adj).....40,281 vs.........40,215
Required Reserves...........42,810 vs.........36,976
Total Reserves..............44,775 vs.........38,347
Non-Borrowed Reserves.......43,411 vs.........36,098
Monetary Base (Unadj)......825,683 vs........827,169

...more...