STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 1

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday October 1, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 477 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2460 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2172 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2133
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 28, 2007

Dow... 13,895.63 -17.31 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq... 2,701.50 -8.09 (-0.30%)
S&P 500... 1,526.75 -4.63 (-0.30%)
Gold future... 750.00 +10.10 (+1.35%)
30-Year Bond 4.83% -0.00 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.58% +0.01 (+0.13%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Contain This

BY BRIAN PRETTI

We all know far too well by now that late last year and early this year, many a Fed and Treasury official were proclaiming from on high that sub-prime mortgage credit problems were contained. The party line was that problems in that particular credit sector neck of the woods were not about to spread or cause further problems in any other part of the domestic, let alone, global credit markets. Riiiiiiiiight. Unfortunately for far too many institutional credit market investors as of late, wrong. I’ve been documenting and discussing this lack of containment issue for many a moon, as well as factually documenting the fact that there is simply no way the actual housing market is anywhere near a bottom, although it’s certainly continuing down that path as we speak. Time to move on to another very important conceptual containment point of the moment; a new containment issue that we believe will be very important for real world domestic economic outcomes ahead.

Let’s start with a quick look at some longer-term housing data now updated through the second quarter GDP report. Below we’re looking at residential fixed investment as a percentage of total GDP. The most recent had been the longest up cycle for residential investment on record. Hard to imagine it would be all reconciled in a few quarters. And so far, it hasn’t. The down cycle has been playing out fast, exactly as had been the case in prior cycles. It’s certainly my belief that there is plenty more to come in terms of southern exposure. At best, this measure of housing investment relative to GDP bottoms somewhere near 3.5-4% of GDP. But given the extremes to the upside in the prior cycle, my personal bet is something nearer 3%, or perhaps just a touch lower. We’ll just have to see how it all plays out.

-cut-

As you might imagine, this new and quite convenient “containment” theory of the moment is about as shortsighted as anything I’ve witnessed in a good while; about as shortsighted as suggesting that mortgage credit problems would be contained to sub prime credits only. The fact is that the influence of housing in its entirety is incredibly meaningful to the totality of the US economy, at least that’s the message of historical experience. It’s not just about new construction, as you know. It’s about leveraging the asset, it’s about job creation in finance, sales, construction, etc. It’s about retail demand in home improvement, remodel, etc. I don’t need to go on and on, right? I didn't think so.

-cut-

The Low Down

As I’m sure you noted in the charts above, the NAHB survey as of the latest reading is sitting at record lows for its two-plus decade history. We must be near a very meaningful low for housing, no? That’s right, no. I’m going to leave you with one last chart that may indeed be one of THE most important data relationships of the moment. One of the reasons I’m so convinced that there is much more to go on the downside for housing, and why I’m convinced no one should be underestimating the impact of housing on the broader US economy of the moment, is price. Or more correctly, lack of meaningful price reconciliation in residential real estate up to this point that I believe is surely still to come. Below we’re looking at the long-term relationship between the median family home price and median family income. Pretty darn simple stuff here. Level of housing prices to income. Can it get any more basic than that?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

10:00 AM ISM Index Sep
Briefing Forecast 53.5
Market Expects 52.5
Prior 52.9

5:00 PM Auto Sales Sep
Briefing Forecast 5.2M
Market Expects 5.1M
Prior 5.1M

5:00 PM Truck Sales Sep
Briefing Forecast 7.2M
Market Expects 7.2M
Prior 7.6M

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200740.html

[UpInArms]

73. better late than never - ISM index for Sept @ 52.0%

47. U.S. Sept. ISM new orders 53.4% vs 55.3% in Aug.
10:01 AM ET, Oct 01, 2007 - 9 hours ago

48. U.S. Sept. ISM production 54.6% vs 56.1% in Aug.
10:01 AM ET, Oct 01, 2007 - 9 hours ago

49. U.S. Sept. ISM prices 59.0% vs 63.0% in Aug.
10:01 AM ET, Oct 01, 2007 - 9 hours ago

50. Fed, Treasury move to implement online gambling ban
10:00 AM ET, Oct 01, 2007 - 9 hours ago

51. U.S. Sept. ISM manufacturing index below 53.0% consensus
10:00 AM ET, Oct 01, 2007 - 9 hours ago

52. U.S. Sept. ISM factory index 52.0% vs 52.9% in Aug.
10:00 AM ET, Oct 01, 2007 - 9 hours ago

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices inch lower to $81.63 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices inched lower Monday in Asia, following a flurry of late selling Friday on concerns oil market fundamentals do not support recent high prices.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery slipped 3 cents to $81.63 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore.

The contract fell $1.22 to settle at $81.66 a barrel Friday, ending last week's rally to near record levels.

-cut-

Analysts said market fundamentals do not support such high prices. While U.S. oil inventories are falling, many say that is typical for this time of year. Oil inventories are 1.3 percent below year-ago levels, but oil prices are more than $20 a barrel higher.

Nymex crude also rallied late last week as a tropical depression near Mexico raised concerns about possible disruptions to oil and gas production and shipments. Prices ended the week flat as the hurricane threats dissipated.

With no new factors emerging to disrupt critical gas and oil infrastructure, energy investors are closely monitoring the U.S. and global economies to see if the subprime mortgage crises has caused an economic slowdown that could affect demand for oil and gasoline.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. UBS to write off billions amid credit woes: reports

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Switzerland's largest bank, UBS (UBSN.VX), is expected to warn on Monday that it has written off billions of dollars on fixed-income assets, making it one of the biggest casualties so far of turmoil in world credit markets, the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal reported.

UBS, which ousted its chief executive, Peter Wuffli, in the wake of losses at an in-house hedge fund in July, is set to replace its investment banking head, Huw Jenkins, the reports said, fuelling speculation that UBS might be altering its strategic course away from investment banking.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the FT said UBS was expected to say it has written down its fixed-income portfolio by more than 3 billion Swiss francs ($2.6 billion), triggering a third-quarter loss of at least 600 million Swiss francs.

-cut-

The losses would far exceed those reported so far by other investment banks.

The fallout of the subprime crisis has varied in the United States, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) reporting a near-80 percent jump in quarterly profit last month, and rival Bear Stearns Cos (BSC.N) posting a 61 percent drop.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071001/bs_nm/ubs_writedown_dc

[54anickel]

19. Heh-heh, but that was simply due to a lucky guess on the part of Goldman Sachs, right?

"...Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) reporting a near-80 percent

jump

in quarterly profit last month, and rival Bear Stearns Cos (BSC.N) posting a 61 percent

drop."

[JNelson6563]

27. Astounding, isn't it?

:crazy: :wow:

[54anickel]

32. Must have been Carnac

[54anickel]

35. Countrywide CEO sold big as stock dropped

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-fi-mozilo29sep29,1,5140882.story?track=crosspromo&coll=la-headlines-nation&ctrack=1&cset=true

As the mortgage industry swooned in late 2006 and 2007, Countrywide Financial Corp. Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo cashed in stock options valued at $138 million -- vastly expanding his wealth even as his shareholders watched their stock shrink in value.

Company executives say Mozilo did nothing wrong and that the transactions were made under trading plans that specified how many shares would be sold each month.

Similar trading plans have been used by hundreds of executives since they were greenlighted by federal regulators in 2000 as a means of fending off accusations of insider trading.

But most executives adopt a plan and stick with it, compensation and securities experts say. Mozilo didn't.

Instead, he shifted course twice in late 2006 and early 2007, according to regulatory filings, amid mounting signs of trouble in the housing and mortgage industries. Mozilo adopted a new trading plan, added a second and then revised it, allowing him to unload hundreds of thousands of additional shares before Countrywide stock went into a tailspin.

"There is clearly no legal prohibition of altering your plan," said David Priebe, a Bay Area attorney who has helped set up more than 50 of such plans for executives. "But the more that you modify or add to your plan over a short period of time, the more risk that someone will call it into question. I would not say that you cannot do it. I would say there is a risk if you do do it."

more...

[JNelson6563]

37. Another Carnac moment?

Curiouser and curiouser.... ;-)

[54anickel]

34. Feds shut down NetBank after big subprime defaults

http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2007/09/feds-shut-down-.html

Federal regulator have shut down Georgia-based NetBank because of subprime mortgage defaults the $2.5 billion online bank has suffered since last year.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said that Netherlands-based ING Bank, part of financial giant ING Groep, will assume $1.5 billion of NetBank's insured deposits and that its customers would automatically be transferred to ING. ING will also acquire $724 million in assets.

NetBank, based in the Atlanta suburb of Alpharetta, filed for bankruptcy protection. It operated exclusively online.

The FDIC explained its action here, and offered more information for customers in a press release.

bit more....

[Ghost Dog]

41. UBS chief takes investment banking reins (SFr4bn writedown)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8b486d02-6fe7-11dc-a6d1-0000779fd2ac.html

Marcel Rohner, UBS’s new chief executive, is to take personal charge of the Swiss bank’s investment banking arm after heavy fixed income losses plunged it into the red in the third quarter.

The move came as UBS said it had written down its fixed-income portfolio by SFr4bn ($3.4bn), mainly because of losses on US subprime mortgage-related securities, triggering a third-quarter loss of SFr600m-SFr800m.

...

The losses were triggered by heavy write-downs on UBS’s fixed-income portfolio, which has been hit by the meltdown in the US subprime mortgage market and the subsequent drying up of liquidity in large parts of the market.

Mr Rohner said UBS had written down the value of structured products on its balance sheet by $1.8bn. It had also reduced the value of its portfolio of residential mortgage-backed securities by about $1bn, and written off about $900m related to collateralised debt obligations which it had been planning to distribute to investors but was now unable to sell.

Overall, UBS’s fixed income, rates and currencies arm, reported negative net revenues of SFr4bn for the third quarter. As a result of the shake-up, overall staff numbers are expected to drop by 1,500 by the end of the year.

The losses are partly due to Dillon Read Capital Management, UBS’s in-house hedge fund, which it closed down in May after the unit suffered losses on investments related to the US sub-prime market.

/...

[JNelson6563]

5. Could that toon be more perfect?

Caught a bit of CNBC this morn, so glad I did! See, before I tuned in I was anxious about the dollar and a few other issues but, thankfully, the morning crew has explained how everything is just fine and, in fact, this is yet another excellent opportunity for me to make lots of money!

Hooray! :hi:

Julie

[ozymandius]

8. Good morning Julie.

True, there is no better time to buy a house than when it is engulfed in flames. You get a fire-sale price. Plus what are the odds that this will happen again? Question is: how long will the fire last? I suppose the brain trusts at CNBC do the math.

I hope everything's great in your world. How did the job interview go?

:hi:

[JNelson6563]

18. Nothing better than fire-sale prices!

You make an excellent point! If you ever tire of your current occupation I'd wager there's a spot for you at CNBC! :-)

Thanks for the good wishes, I still await word on the job--one way or the other. Mild anxiety in the meantime....

I hope it's all good in your world too Oz, as always THANK YOU for kicking off the SWT daily.

:toast:

Julie

[Warpy]

42. Well, if it's overinsured and underassessed

and the flames break out as you're passing papers, it's not such a bad deal.

I know a slumlord in Boston who kept his wife in sable doing just that..

[skids]

17. That toon is nearly profound. n/t

[ozymandius]

6. GM may close 2 more plants under deal

DETROIT - The tentative contract between General Motors Corp. and the United Auto Workers would allow GM to close a plant each in Michigan and Indiana and possibly shut down several other facilities, according to a detailed copy of the agreement.

The moves are the downside of job security pledges that the UAW won in the negotiations, including commitments for new products at 16 plants. About 74,000 hourly GM workers will vote on the pact starting this week, with a final tally to be done by Oct. 10.

Gregg Shotwell, a GM worker and frequent critic of the UAW, posted most of the contract details on the Internet. He said he received the agreement from a local union official who attended a Friday meeting in Detroit. He would not identify the official, but the accuracy of its contents was confirmed for The Associated Press by a union leader who requested anonymity because members have not yet voted on the pact.

The agreement would let GM sell or close a stamping plant in Indianapolis and close an engine plant in Livonia, in suburban Detroit. According to the detailed document, called the "white book," work at the Indianapolis stamping operation will continue or be reallocated to another GM plant "until such time as the plant can be sold to an outside buyer."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071001/ap_on_bi_ge/auto_talks

[Nimrod2005]

7. Good morning folks, happy jobs' number week!!!

I know we will hear about it Monday, Tues. Wed, Thurs, and Friday :)

[Mojorabbit]

9. Gold hits fresh 28-year high

Gold hits fresh 28-year high
By Javier Blas in London

Published: October 1 2007 11:14 | Last updated: October 1 2007 11:14

Gold hit a fresh 28-year high on Monday, coming within a whisker of the $750 an ounce level amid renewed US dollar weakness.

Spot gold in London rose to $746.30 an ounce, its highest level since it surged to a record high of $850 an ounce in January 1980, after the dollar fell to an all-time low of $1.4281 against the euro.

Spot gold in London was later trading at $746.15 an ounce, up $1.75 on the day.

The gold price surge of almost $75 an ounce in September has triggered a new wave of investment in exchange-traded funds, such as Street Tracks Gold Shares. The fund‘s bullion investment has soared 24 per cent this quarter to a record of 578.03 tonnes.

Spot silver in London moved in parallel to gold and rose to $13.78 an ounce, its highest in sixth months.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3825c308-7006-11dc-a6d1-0000779fd2ac.html

[JNelson6563]

29. Who could've seen this coming??

B-)

[ozymandius]

10. Wall Street awaits key economic reports

NEW YORK - Wall Street is on surer footing than it was a month ago, but it enters the fourth quarter with many questions still unanswered about the health of the nation's economy and corporations.

At this point, the credit markets have loosened up some, the Dow Jones industrial average is only about 100 points below its record, and investors appear to be more confident the Federal Reserve will do what it can to keep the economy from slipping into recession.

The third quarter, after all the tumult in the housing and credit markets this summer, ended with the Dow up 3.6 percent after the Federal Reserve lowered key interest rates.

-cut-

This week will bring data not only on August's pending home sales, but also on three major pillars of the nation's economy: manufacturing activity, service sector activity, and employment.

Third-quarter earnings don't arrive in earnest until mid-October, and the Federal Reserve isn't scheduled to discuss interest rates until Oct. 30-31, so this week's reports could help investors figure out where the economy is headed, if rates will keep falling, and whether corporate America is weathering the uncertainty.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070930/ap_on_bi_ge/wall_street_week_ahead

[Mojorabbit]

11. The devil and Alan Greenspan

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IJ02Dj10.html
snip
If Americans have to learn the hard way that they cannot surf the wave of the world's savings forever, it will be a painful but beneficial lesson. If Asians learn that they cannot avoid risk by placing their savings in America, it is worth the cost, although it may be substantial. The fate of 3 billion Asians is the risk to the world economy, and it is delusional to think that it can be insured. Asians must find the means to invest in their own future and buy their own risk.

[Mojorabbit]

12. China's trillion-dollar kitty is ready

China's trillion-dollar kitty is ready

BEIJING - China Investment Corp (CIC), the country's long-awaited gigantic state investment arm set up to make use of its huge and ever-growing foreign exchange reserve for overseas investment, was inaugurated over the weekend.

The CIC, with a registered capital of US$200 billion, is a solely state-owned company, according to company sources. The state-owned Central Huijin Investment Corporation was merged into the new company as a wholly-owned subsidiary company, the

sources said.

In May, the new company, while still in preparation, made its first investment in non-voting shares, valued at US$3 billion, in the US private equity firm, the Blackstone Group.

The Ministry of Finance (MOF) will keep pouring foreign exchange into the new company following issuances of special treasury bonds, according to company sources. China's legislature approved the special issuance of 1.55 trillion yuan in treasury bonds (US$200 billion) for the new investment company in June.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China_Business/IJ02Cb01.html

[Mojorabbit]

16. Good morning

I put the above China article in the wrong place but this is what I was waiting for. They will use up all that depreciating cash to buy US assets. Some implications there for national security if there is even anyone watching out for that kind of thing anymore in our govt.

[54anickel]

21. Then Blackstone cycles it back into Chinese industry....

http://www.blackstone.com/news/press_releases/9-10-2007.pdf

ChemChina Announces Strategic Investment by Blackstone
Beijing/New York, 10th September 2007 – China National Chemical Corporation (“ChemChina”), a leading international diversified chemical company, and The Blackstone Group today announced a strategic partnership to build a global leader in the specialty chemical industry. The Blackstone Group will invest up to US$ 600 million into China National Bluestar (Group) Corporation (“Bluestar”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of ChemChina, for a 20% stake. Antony Leung and Ben Jenkins, a former director of Celanese, will join the board.

Commenting on the deal, Mr. Ren Jianxin, Chairman, ChemChina stated, “We are excited to have Blackstone as a long term partner. Given Blackstone’s extensive and successful experience in the global chemical industry, notably past ownership of Celanese Corp. and Nalco Company, this investment will assist Bluestar in its growth and expansion.

Antony Leung, Blackstone’s Chairman of Greater China, stated, “We believe that continued economic growth will drive long term growth in China’s chemical sector. It is a privilege to invest alongside a superb management team in a leading company in one of China’s key industrial sectors.”

Ben Jenkins, Head of Blackstone Asia Pacific Private Equity, added, “Bluestar’s focus on innovation and technology has made it the leading specialty chemical company in China. We are looking forward to using our global network to accelerate and extend growth of the Company both in China and abroad.”

UBS AG acted as financial advisor to ChemChina, and Merrill Lynch acted as financial advisor to Blackstone on this transaction.
The transaction is subject to final regulatory approvals.



Wasn't Blackstone's IPO just this past summer? I seem to remember a big stick about taxes not being paid....

edit to add.... Oh yeah, now I'm starting to remember - http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=blackstone+IPO+taxes

[ozymandius]

14. House prices set to fall further: Greenspan

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices in the United States will continue to decline as new sales are still barely denting the supply overhang, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Monday.

Greenspan said there were signs the lending crisis gripping global financial markets was possibly coming to end as demand for more risky assets grows but warned the speculative fever must be allowed to run its course to enable a full recovery.

"As in similar situations of inventory excess, I would expect home price declines to continue until the rate of inventory liquidation reaches its peak," Greenspan told an audience at Reuters in London.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071001/ts_nm/greenspan_housing_dc_1

Inventory liquidation: Making fun of people who followed his stupid advice while they lose their homes.

[Mojorabbit]

13. Mogambo

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/IJ02Dj06.html
The indeflating sub-feral government
By The Mogambo Guru

Of course, nothing could be more insane than the news from Associated Press, "Senate panel sets national debt limit at $9.82 trillion, $4 trillion higher than when President Bush first took office".

Now put this together with Goldmau.com: "The debt growth rate is now higher than GDP growth, a recipe for eventual hyperinflationary outcome."

And all this new debt is certainly needed, as my buddy, Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Phil S, sent a chart from some guys that calculate that it now takes $5.53 in debt to create $1 of GDP growth!

And sometimes not even that, as JMR Dan B sends a pithy little summary saying, "China has increased their money supply 53% while the US has increased it 12% during the same time period. I don't know if that implies some level of corruption, but it must bring tears of joy to the eyes of Helicopter Ben."

snip

[54anickel]

20. Whoa, did the Asia Times always carry Mogambo? Nice touch with that

link to "The Complete Mogambo" with an archive of The Mog back to Sept 7. An "eyeful" of Mogambo all in one place!!!

[fasttense]

23. Indeflating?

"Is the Fed deflating? Inflating? Indeflating?"

Some prices will go up, very high - gas, food and gold.

Some prices will go down, very low - houses, wages and services.

[spotbird]

30. But what can someone do

to protect them-self from this disaster?

[JNelson6563]

38. Run for your lives!

After you liquidate all your assets into precious metal & jewels and sew it all into your clothes and flee the country. If you don't make it out before our new Chinese overlords arrive you'll at least have something to bribe them with.

Julie--who thinks it's important to always have a Plan B

[Demeter]

40. Bush Wiped Out My Plans C and D and E

Reagan wiped out Plan A and B.

Pretty soon, I'm going to run out of letters.

[AnneD]

55. Bush has given us the....

F U C K E D plan. As far as I can tell, it's working:evilgrin:

[Demeter]

69. You Can Say That Again

[spotbird]

45. I was thinking something

which assumes the survival of society, perhaps I'm more optimistic than you.

[ozymandius]

15. High-priced student loans spell trouble

The near doubling in the cost of a college degree the past decade has produced an explosion in high-priced student loans that could haunt the U.S. economy for years.

While scholarship, grant money and government-backed student loans — whose interest rates are capped — have taken up some of the slack, many families and individual students have turned to private loans, which carry fees and interest rates that are often variable and up to 20 percent.

Many in the next generation of workers will be so debt-burdened they will have to delay home purchases, limit vacations, even eat out less to pay loans off on time.

Kristin Cole, 30, who graduated from Michigan State University's law school and lives in Grand Rapids, Mich., owes $150,000 in private and government-backed student loans. Her monthly payment of $660, which consumes a quarter of her take-home pay, is scheduled to jump to $800 in a year or so, confronting her with stark financial choices.

-cut-

Rocketing tuition fees made borrowing that much more appealing. Consumer prices on average rose less than 29 percent over the past 10 years while tuition, fees, and room and board at four-year public colleges and universities soared 79 percent to $12,796 a year and 65 percent to $30,367 a year at private institutions, according to the College Board.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070930/ap_on_bi_ge/student_loans_the_spiral

[AnneD]

47. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. I am flying low today. Seems some women get hot flashes when they go though menopause. I get hot flashes and Nausea and vomiting. Guess it nature's funny way of getting back at me (I never had morning sickness):hangover:

My little finagler AKA my daughter told me the other day that she is going to take some of her saved money and go to bar tending school. She said that she thinks she can make more per hour to pay her tuition. She has decided that she will try to work her way through as much of her school as she can. I think it threw her for a loop when I told her that wasn't a bad idea and gave her my blessings. Even told her I wish I had done it while in school. Would have been better than waitressing. She laughed and said she had a mom that think different than most. I took that as a compliment.

I can't even tell you how many student loan apps she gets a week. And they are SO slick that if you don't read them carefully, you could wind up being the 32k a year Social Worker paying off 120K in student loan debt. I go over them with a fine tooth comb and so her the 'gotcha' clauses. She actually told me that she appreciated that I was helping her steer in the right direction on financing :passthesmellingsalts: I have been explaining that the money she saves now by not being indebted will give her freedom to make her own choices later in life and not be a wage slave the rest of her life.

She's so funny-we were talking about colleges and living arrangements. I told her that I would continue to carry her health insurance even after I no longer had to pay child support (because that is what good parents do). She got such a look of relief over her face and said (with all seriousness) that she had been trying to estimate what it will cost for her to live on her own. Even being as cheap as she could, she said she would have to make over 12k on top of her tuition. I think home is starting to look real good about now 'cause she doesn't nag me about going out on my weekends anymore.

I think I have done as best as I can to help her navigate through the shark infested waters that is the modern day economy and crazy world. She did the makeup this weekend for the all school musical 'Suessical'. We went out to a local NYC style deli (where else would you go after a night at the theatre). We were talking about it and the message it said. I told her that I remember what a big stir Theodore Gissel made 'cause this wasn't your mom's Dick and Jane. And once you though about it, she said that the lyrics were so depressing and fatalistic about what can happen in life. We started talking about Katrina and Rita and the great Tsunami. These folks did nothing wrong to deserve what happened to them. Your religion, money, class, etc doesn't protect you. It might afford you a slightly better chance to survive, but in the end, it is pure dumb luck. Religion and money are the tool to make our lives better while we live here, not as an indicator of superiority. If you are blessed with more, your stewardship is greater.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[girl gone mad]

71. I bartended in college.

I actually earned more as a waitress, but bar tending was less physically demanding and a lot more fun. School may or may not be the best choice for your daughter. I started as an assistant at a small club which served mostly beers and got experience that way. If she's cute, she could probably easily get hired somewhere and then do on the job learning. You learn the most popular drinks very quickly. If you don't know a drink, ask the customer. I never had a complaint about that. Once you feel comfortable behind the bar, you can move on to a head bar tending position.

[UpInArms]

22. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.005 Change +0.307 (+0.40%)

US Dollar Beaten to a Pulp; Is Euro 1.50 Next?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar_Beaten_to_a_1191015633465.html

The US dollar succumbed to heavy selling on the last trading day of the month, which also happens to be the last trading day of the quarter. As the value of the once mighty buck continues to fall, other currencies have hit multi-decade highs. More specifically, the Euro rose to a record high while the Canadian and Australian dollars hit 31 and 18 year highs respectively. Although we saw evidence of improvements in the manufacturing sector today (Chicago PMI and Construction Spending surprised to the upside), there is still plenty of reasons for concern. Personal income growth slowed as spending increased while the PCE deflator moderated. Collectively, this data reinforces the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at the end of next month. However we do not expect anything more than a quarter point rate cut since the rise in commodity prices and the fall in the US dollar has put upside pressure on inflation. Slower growth and rising inflationary pressures resurrect the risk of stagflation. The last time we had serious stagflation problems was in the early 1980s. With the Euro taking out 1.42 and on its way to 1.43, the burning question on everyone’s mind now is whether we will hit 1.50. Although the weakness of the US dollar will eventually help engineer an economic recovery, there is no reason to believe that the relief will come anytime soon. Euro 1.50 may be a lofty goal but 1.45 is certainly reasonable. Next week, we have a lot of economic data as well as three central bank interest rate decisions. The most important release out of the US will be non-farm payrolls. Everything else before it, including manufacturing and service sector ISM will simply be used to help forecast whether payrolls will be weak or strong. The market is currently looking for very optimistic 100k job growth. We think that this is overly ambitious given the layoffs announced in the financial sector and the big losses reported by home builders. Some people have argued that yesterday’s jobless claims report was bullish, but just because companies are not firing does not mean that they are hiring. For most companies, expansion is probably the last thing on their minds at the moment.

...more...

Dollar Plunge Relentless But Gloom May Be Overdone

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar_Plunge_Relentless_But_Gloom_1191215165757.html

After spending a few days at the start of the week consolidating its losses around the 1.40 level, the greenback pushed lower still under the relentless threat of further rate cuts by the Fed and growing fears of a potential recession in the US economy. By the end of Friday EURUSD set yet another record high at 1.4275 and appeared destined to move higher.

The economic data was weak across the board, starting with a very ugly consumer confidence number which plunged below the key psychological level of 100 printing at 99.8 for the first time in 2 years. Durable goods was also of little help contracting another 4.9% on the month while housing continued to be a slow motion wreck with Existing Homes sales falling –8.3% against expectations of a -5.2% decline.

Nevertheless, despite the gloom and doom that has pervaded the markets the dollar bears may be overplaying their hand. As we noted on Thursday, “The low readings in consumer sentiment and the worse then expected drop in Durable Goods …all suggest that the economy is retrenching. However, the calls for an inevitable recession may be a bit premature, especially if labor markets remain steady. “ Indeed if there is any morsel of hope for greenback longs it rests on the surprisingly strong labor data This weeks jobless claims showed a marked improvement dropping below 300K and if NFPs rebound as expected to 100K they will demonstrate that US economy continues to expand suggesting that the calls of an imminent recession are overblown. while the path of least resistance is down, the dollar remains grossly oversold, and a better than expected NFP print could bring some temporary relief to downtrodden dollar longs. -BS



...more...

[fasttense]

25. Gloom is never overdone.

"Dollar Plunge Relentless But Gloom May Be Overdone"

As a pessimist, or a glass half empty kind of guy, I feel gloom can never be overdone. ;-)

[AnneD]

54. Why do you think we have Murphy's law and corlolllary

If some thing can go wrong it will go wrong.....

Corollary-it goes wrong at the worst possible time. ;)

[Ghost Dog]

39. Yen Declines After Asian Stocks Advance, Spurring Carry Trades

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aFRPvIXc_DeE&refer=asia

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell to a seven-week low against the euro and the Australian dollar after stocks in Asia gained, prompting traders to buy higher-yielding investments funded by loans in Japan.

Japan's currency dropped the most versus the New Zealand dollar, a favorite of so-called carry trades. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. said an in-house measure showed yen carry trades have increased at an ``impressive'' rate, helped by a reduction in U.S. interest rates on Sept. 18.

``There's more appetite for risk and that's encouraging people to sell the yen,'' said Derek Halpenny, senior currency strategist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London. ``For now, the trend is with yen selling.''

The yen dropped to 164.42 per euro as of 7:31 a.m. in New York, near the lowest since Aug. 9, when it rose the most since March after BNP Paribas SA, France's biggest bank, froze three investment funds, reigniting concern the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis was spreading. It was 163.79 on Sept. 28 in New York.

Japan's currency also fell to 115.56 against the dollar from 114.81.

The yen pared losses against the euro and the dollar and stocks retreated after Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, cut its third-quarter earnings forecast by 60 percent.

/...

[54anickel]

24. They're back....bond vigilantes. I've been wondering what the hell happened to them.

Don't look now, Mr. Bernanke

September 28, 2007

The stock market has focused on the positive implication that less expensive money will stimulate growth, while the Treasury market has fretted over inflation. Cheapening the cost of money tends to tempt sellers to lift prices, setting off inflation, which the Treasury market detests… "Fixed-income markets, after initially rejoicing, are now feeling the wrath of the bonds vigilantes," wrote economists at Action Economics.
- Associated Press, 9/24/07


Hello Mr. Bernanke. It is good to see you. I do not believe you know me.

snip>

You may have heard of us, the Vigilantes. Or perhaps not; you have been busy. Me? I have been on vacation, Mr. Bernanke. A long vacation. But I must say, it was well deserved. We worked hard in those days. We did great things. We tolerated nothing. We trusted no one. We were, Mr. Bernanke, a menace to the irresponsible.

It is because of an acquaintance of yours that my vacation was so long. Oh, do not worry, it was not your predecessor, Mr. Bernanke. I will spare you the indignity of once again having to hear his name.

It was Mr. Volcker, Señor. When his work was done, my work was done also. But I cannot begrudge him. We were great rivals, he and I. The markets believed me much of the time. Believed me? They feared me, Mr. Bernanke. Feared us. The markets trembled when we raised our swords. When we dashed through the town, our capes flying behind us, our voices loud. Bond investors hid behind their Telerate machines, Mr. Bernanke. They cowered. Some sang hymns. Do you remember Telerate machines, Mr. Bernanke?

They cowered, Mr. Bernanke, because we told them the truth. We told them what would happen if things were not put right.

People have missed us, I think, Mr. Bernanke. They have said, “Where are the Vigilantes?” I have heard them. I have not only been on vacation, you see. I have a family. I learned some html programming. Did a little consulting. My cape, Mr. Bernanke, it remained in the closet.

more...

[KoKo]

57. Do you have the link, "54"...looks like a great read!

:D :hi:

[cosmicdot]

58. found this

by Rob Peebles
Don't look now, Mr. Bernanke
September 28, 2007

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4773&Itemid=56

[KoKo]

62. Thanks!

:-)

[54anickel]

26. Credit Bubble Bulletin was pretty interesting last week.....

http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4771&Itemid=55

snip>

GSE Watch:
Fannie expanded its "Book of Business" (held mortgages and outstanding MBS) by almost $30bn during August (17.1% annualized) to $2.279 TN. Year-to-date, Fannie's Book of Business has expanded at a 12.9% pace. Freddie's Book of Business increased about $19bn during the month, an 11.6% growth rate, to $1.983 TN. Year-to-date, Freddie's Book of Business has expanded at a 12.9% pace.

Mortgage Finance Bust Watch:
September 26 – Bloomberg (Brian Louis): “Lennar Corp., the largest U.S. homebuilder, reported the biggest quarterly loss in its 53-year history after $848 million of costs to write down the value of real estate. The third-quarter net loss was $513.9 million… exceeding the most pessimistic estimates from analysts and suggesting the worst housing market in 16 years shows no signs of stabilizing. Revenue at Miami-based Lennar fell 44% to $2.34 billion, the lowest in more than three years.”

Foreclosure Watch:
September 28 – Bloomberg (Hugh Son and Josh P. Hamilton): “Defaults on privately insured U.S. mortgages climbed 30% last month from year-earlier levels, an industry trade group reported, adding to evidence that home foreclosures may continue to rise. Insured borrowers more than 60 days behind on their payments rose to 58,441 in August…Mortgage Insurance Companies of America said…”

MBS/ABS/CDO/CP/Money Funds and Derivatives Watch:
September 26 - Financial Times (Richard McGregor): “Losses in the US subprime mortgage market are set to escalate as falling house prices prevent borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages from refinancing on better terms, data released yesterday suggest. Housing prices in the main 20 US cities fell 3.9% in July from the previous year, the worst performance this decade, according to…Case Shiller. Analysts expect house prices to decline further and predict such falls could devastate homebuyers who took out subprime mortgages in late 2005 and 2006. Many of these borrowers took out adjustable-rate mortgages in the belief that rising housing prices would increase their home equity and enable them to refinance loans before rates rose.”

September 26 – Bloomberg (Jody Shenn): “Late payments and defaults among subprime mortgages packaged into bonds rose last month, according to data for loans underlying benchmark ABX derivative indexes. After August payments, 19.1% of loan balances in 20 deals from the second half of 2005 were at least 60 days late, in foreclosure, subject to borrower bankruptcy or backed by seized property, up from 17.5% a month earlier, according to…Wachovia… Prepayment speeds for the loans slowed, suggesting it’s more difficult for borrowers to sell their homes or refinance, according to…UBS AG. Record levels of delinquencies and defaults on subprime mortgages are worsening as home prices decline and interest rates on loans adjust higher for the first time. As lenders tighten standards, borrowers are finding it harder to refinance into new mortgages with lower payments. The ‘reports showed the first inkling of the impact of shutdown of subprime market,’ the UBS analysts…wrote… ‘In our opinion, the full impact is yet to come.’”

snip>

Clash of the Paradigms:

David Tice, banking analyst Charlie Peabody (Portales Partners), and I led a panel discussion, “End Game for Credit Bubble: Implications for Financial Markets & Wall Street Finance,” last Thursday at an Argyle Executive Forum (“Alternative Thinking About Investments” in NYC). It was moderated by the wonderfully talented Kate Welling (welling.weedenco.com). The following is certainly not an official transcript of David and my comments but, rather, Q&A expanded in hope of providing more complete responses:

snip>

To summarize, we believe the current fragile boom – one characterized by unprecedented imbalances and maladjustments – can only be sustained by ongoing massive Credit creation. In an increasingly risk-averse world, this poses a colossal risk intermediation challenge. Thus far, the confluence of a highly inflationary global backdrop, extraordinary central bank interventions, and a major expansion of U.S. banking system Credit has sufficed. We, however, view Fed and the U.S. banking system capabilities as constrained and aggressive actions feasible only over the short-term. Importantly, an impaired Wall Street risk intermediation mechanism – the main source of finance behind the past few years of “blow-off” excess - will be hard-pressed to meet challenges and new realities.

Likely, liquidity issues and faltering asset markets will instigate problematic de-leveraging upon highly over-leveraged Credit and economic systems. We expect significant unfolding tumult in the securitization, derivatives, and risk “insurance” marketplaces. We view ballooning Credit insurance and derivatives markets as a bull market phenomenon that won’t withstand the test of the downside of the Credit Cycle. We believe the stock market has of late benefited from a combination of complacency, misperceptions with respect to Fed capabilities, and its newfound status, by default, as favored risk asset class. We see US equities, in particular, highly susceptible to unfolding detrimental financial and economic forces. We expect the economy to soon succumb to recession. California and other inflated real estate Bubble markets are now poised to suffer severe price declines – residential as well as commercial. And we expect contemporary “Wall Street Finance” to face a crisis of confidence – to suffer on all fronts – liquidity, Credit losses and regulatory. Our faltering currency is, as well, a major issue.

[54anickel]

31. A Frontline report on Credit from a couple of years ago.....

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/credit/

[AnneD]

66. I saw the show...

:thumbsup:

[Ghost Dog]

28. Asian Stocks Rise to a Record

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aKjCOQj32ucE&refer=asia

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, driving a regional benchmark to a third straight record, after business confidence unexpectedly held near a two-year high in Japan and Singapore home loans grew at the fastest pace since March 2005.

Sony Corp. advanced after the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey showed companies are raising projections for spending, sales and profits. DBS Group Holdings Ltd. gained on speculation increased mortgage demand will boost profit. Posco climbed after it announced plans to raise steel prices.

``Asian companies overall have good earnings momentum,'' said Eric Chou, who helps manage $1.8 billion at Jih Sun Securities Investment Trust Co. in Taipei. ``Regional demand is providing support to growth.''

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index added 0.1 percent to 163.42 as of 6:50 p.m. in Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 0.4 percent. Shares fell in Australia, while other regional markets rose. Hong Kong and China were shut for holidays.

The Karachi Stock Exchange 100 Index was the region's best- performing benchmark, surging 2.9 percent after Pakistan's Supreme Court ruled that President Pervez Musharraf will be able to seek a second five-year term in an Oct. 6 election.

/...

Hiya :hi: . Software updated, machine deep-cleaned, but overloaded here. Thunderbird 2.0.0.4 doesn't thread DU properly, which is a drag (now downloading 2.0.0.7). Now have intermittent broadband. Looks like must update hardware very soon...

[Ghost Dog]

33. Europe shares slip after Citi statement hits banks

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-10-01T111854Z_01_L01311413_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-SHARES-EXTEND-URGENT.XML
Mon Oct 1, 2007 12:18 PM BST

LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - European shares slipped and financials weakened further after Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said on Monday that it expected a near-60-percent drop in third quarter net income, underlining investor worries about the banking sector.

At 1109 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> was down 0.2 percent at 1,548.15 points after a early volatile session as gains in miners and travel stocks balanced financials weakened by a big writedown from Swiss bank UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research).

The DJ Stoxx European banking index <.SX7P> fell 0.8 percent.

Across Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE was down 0.1 percent, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> down 0.2 percent and France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> was down 0.3 percent.

[Ghost Dog]

51. European shares rally as UBS shrugs off losses

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-10-01T154236Z_01_L01526133_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-CLOSE-URGENT.XML
Mon Oct 1, 2007 4:42 PM BST

LONDON, Oct 1 (Reuters) - European shares rallied sharply on Monday, led by UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile , Research) as the announcement of its subprime-related losses ignited speculation that the worst of the impact of the credit crunch may be behind it.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top European shares unofficially closed 0.7 percent up at 1,561.70 points, having risen from an earlier low of 1,541.8 points. The index has gained over 5 percent so far this year.

UBS, the world's largest wealth manager, was the top weighted gainer, rising 3 percent, after saying it would write down $3.4 billion in losses and shake up its management.

"The fact that it's now out in the open, at least we can put some size on the exposure and the hit they've taken, rather than everybody trying to second-guess it," said David Jones, CMC chief markets analyst.

...

London's FTSE 100 index .FTSE rose 0.6 percent, while Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> gained 0.8 percent and Paris' CAC 40 <.FCHI> rallied 1 percent.

[54anickel]

36. There's No Inflation (If You Ignore Facts)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21047604/site/newsweek/?from=rss

Oct. 8, 2007 issue - Imagine that a cardiologist told you that aside from the irregular heartbeat, the stratospheric cholesterol count and a little blockage in your aorta, your core heart functions are just fine.

That's precisely what the government's cardiologist—Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve—has just done. The central bank is supposed to make sure the economy grows fast enough to create jobs and make everybody richer, but not so fast that it produces inflation, which makes everybody poorer. "Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year," the Federal Open Market Committee said in justifying its 50-basis-point interest-rate cut last month, while conceding that "some inflation risks remain."

Catch that bit about "core inflation"? That's Fedspeak for: inflation is under control, unless you look at the costs of things that are going up. The core rate excludes the prices of food and energy, which can be volatile from month to month. Factor them in, and inflation is about as moderate as Newt Gingrich. In the first eight months of 2007, the consumer price index—the main gauge of inflation—rose at a 3.7 percent annual rate. That's more than 50 percent higher than the mild 2.3 percent core rate. The prices of energy and food are soaring, at 12.7 percent and 5.6 percent annual rates, respectively, and have been doing so for years. As a result, the CPI—including food and energy—has risen 12.6 percent since July 2003, for a compound rate of about 3 percent.

Signs of inflation are evident throughout the economy. When investors fear a rising inflationary tide, they latch onto the driftwood of gold. The day Bernanke cut rates, the price of the precious metal soared to heights not seen since 1980, when inflation ran at nearly 12 percent! I read about this in The Wall Street Journal (whose newsstand price rose 50 percent in July), which I picked up in the lobby of a New York hotel (where the average nightly rate soared 12.5 percent in the first seven months of 2007 from 2006, according to PKF Consulting) while sipping on a Starbucks Frappuccino (whose price has risen twice since last October).

more....



Gotta run for the day....:hi:

[spotbird]

44. Interesting

"China's government is trying to deal with its inflation in predictably Orwellian fashion. "Beijing has instructed local provincial and urban statistical bureaus in a subtle form of denial—they are not to use the word 'inflation' to describe what is happening," notes Keidel. It's easy to mock Beijing's clumsy bureaucrats. But by focusing on core inflation, the Federal Reserve—along with the legions of investors who reacted ecstatically to the interest-rate cut—is practicing its own subtle form of denial."

Isn't that what we do when we say inflation is low because the "core rate" is low?

Elsewhere in the article it is reported that China has experienced " An 18.2 percent year-over-year increase in the price of food." That's closer to the truth here as well.

[DemReadingDU]

43. Fleckenstein: Recession isn't an 'if' but a 'when'

To me, it seems obvious that we are headed to recession and that lower stock prices will ensue. On that score, the Liscio Report noted its recession index, which tracks newspaper articles that contain the word "recession" -- and which has an excellent history of calling downturns in near-real-time fashion -- has shown a sharp spike:

"The reading for September is 104 articles, which is the highest since the index was coming off the recession highs in 2003. It's also 2.9 times the trailing average of the previous three months -- the second-highest reading since the series began in 1980. The only sharper spike was in October 1987. That is a warning.

more...
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/RecessionIsntAnIfButAWhen.aspx?page=2

[TrogL]

46. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-08-28 Tuesday, August 28 0.941974 USD
2007-08-29 Wednesday, August 29 0.944109 USD
2007-08-30 Thursday, August 30 0.946342 USD
2007-08-31 Friday, August 31 0.94697 USD
2007-09-03 Monday, September 3 0.94697 USD
2007-09-04 Tuesday, September 4 0.953016 USD
2007-09-05 Wednesday, September 5 0.951656 USD
2007-09-06 Thursday, September 6 0.949307 USD
2007-09-07 Friday, September 7 0.948227 USD
2007-09-10 Monday, September 10 0.949487 USD
2007-09-11 Tuesday, September 11 0.958773 USD
2007-09-12 Wednesday, September 12 0.964134 USD
2007-09-13 Thursday, September 13 0.968617 USD
2007-09-14 Friday, September 14 0.971628 USD
2007-09-17 Monday, September 17 0.970214 USD
2007-09-18 Tuesday, September 18 0.977135 USD
2007-09-19 Wednesday, September 19 0.985513 USD
2007-09-20 Thursday, September 20 0.998901 USD
2007-09-21 Friday, September 21 0.999201 USD
2007-09-24 Monday, September 24 0.998901 USD
2007-09-25 Tuesday, September 25 0.9995 USD
2007-09-26 Wednesday, September 26 0.99552 USD
2007-09-27 Thursday, September 27 0.99691 USD
2007-09-28 Friday, September 28 1.00412 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD) (could somebody write me a perl script to format this? No time this week.)

Market Open High Low Last Change Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash 1.0049 1.0068 1.0049 1.0065 +0.0001 +0.01% 10:01
CD.Z07 Dec 2007 1.0075 1.0086 1.0068 1.0080 +0.0008 +0.08% 10:21
CD.H08 Mar 2008 1.0072 1.0085 1.0068 1.0076 +0.0076 +0.75% set 15:13
CD.M08 Jun 2008 0.9495 0.9495 1.0076 +0.0076 +0.75% set 15:13
CD.U08 Sep 2008 1.0084 1.0098 1.0075 1.0075 +0.0076 +0.75% set 15:13
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.9530 0.9530 0.9530 1.0074 +0.0076 +0.75% set 15:13
CD.H09 Mar 2009 1.0073 1.0073 1.0073 1.0073 +0.0076 +0.75% set 15:13



Other combinations: (this too?)

HY.Z07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Dec (NYBOT) 115.740 +1.245
GB.Z07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Dec (NYBOT) 0.69850 -0.00145
EP.Z07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Dec (NYBOT) 1.41925 +0.00090
EJ.Z07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT) 163.42 +0.89
EU.Z07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Sep (NYBOT) 1.4274 -0.0024

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar gapped up and closed higher on Friday as it extended this month's rally. The mid-range close
sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Upside targets are hard to project if December continues to extend this month's rally into new uncharted territory, Closes below last Thursday's gap crossing at .9874 would confirm that a short-term top has been
posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.0098. First support is today's gap crossing at 1.0098 then the 10-day
moving average crossing at crossing at .9946.



Analysis

Ok, so we're back to the "new uncharted territory" thing. O Brave New World that has such bots in it.

[TrogL]

63. Update

Blather

The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Upside targets are hard to project if December continues to extend this month's rally into new uncharted territory, Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at .9913 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1.0098. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at .9979 then last Wednesday's low crossing at .9913.

Cash numbers: (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y$$&v=s)

Last trade 1.0091 Change +0.0027 (+0.27%)

Open 1.0049 Previous Close 1.0064

High 1.0091 Low 1.0049


Analysis

We're kissing $1.01 territory. I haven't had a chance to read the rest of the thread. Did something bad happen? Is that an understatement to rival "Houston, we have a problem"?

[NC_Nurse]

48. I see the Dow is over 14,000 again...

:wtf:
edit: Oops, left out a zero...:crazy:

[Roland99]

49. NEW RECORD HIGH!

:wow:

[w8liftinglady]

50. I admit-I'm an economic idiot...but how does the Dow climb on the news

I'm hearing today..Citibank and UBS,soft sales,possible "R" word?Oh wise DUers,explain this to me?

[Hugin]

52. It's because Core Inflation is still Core!

:crazy:

[ret5hd]

53. If enough money is pumped into the system...

everything rises. I hear the stock market in Zimbabwe is the fastest rising market around...as long as you count in the local currency.

[UpInArms]

74. you mean like this?: Fed adds $7.25 bln in reserves via overnight repos

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYE00017420071001

NEW YORK, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Monday it added $7.25 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements.

The Fed said the collateral accepted on the overnight repurchase was made up of $3.25 billion of agencies and $4.00 billion of mortgage-backed securities. A total of $65.55 billion in bids were submitted for the overnight repurchase.

[specimenfred1984]

56. The propaganda is: possible lower rates means less invested in bonds...

that pay lower rates and more money invested in stocks that might have a better rate of return than bonds. In reality, the stock market is completely corrupt now, it's easily manipulated by huge banks/investment firms that buy on days like today, only to dump all their buys later in the week. It's pure speculation, driven by a huge propaganda machine and under regulated banks/investment/insurance/mortgage companies---all the same thing now.

The markets are driven by corrupt banks, it's the same old story with lots of new crimes/schemes. America will either regulate the big banks or the entire country will go into a huge depression.

[Demeter]

70. Inflation

Fed pumping credit into the money supply.

[Buttercup McToots]

59. Sometimes I wonder

Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it. -- Mark Twain

:eyes:

[specimenfred1984]

60. Markets do "the fascist float": buying followed by nothing

Stocks get a pump up then are dead flat for an hour or so then they get another big bank/fund pump up. Nobody buys or sells in between the pumps because nobody wants to be on the wrong side of a massive big bank/fund pump or dump.

We are a fascist country, run by a few corporations/banks/funds/investment/insurance/mortgage firms who spew propaganda 24/7.

[NC_Nurse]

61. Jeebus! Up nearly 200 points now!

Unbelievable.

Man, those fascists are GOOD! :P

[JNelson6563]

64. I have solved the puzzle.

I have just learned from anonymous sources deep within the power structure that there is a Top Secret Operation underway. It's called the Opposite Day Stratey (ODS) and it's employed whenever there's negative financial news. Spending up, income down? No problem! Implement the ODS and Voila! Profits galore!

Credit problems? Sinking dollar? Enron-esque monkey-business in the mortgage industry? No matter! You know what to do.....kick that ODS into high gear and you can once again rest assured that golden parachutes will be provided for all*.

Is this a great country or what? :toast:

Julie

*"All" being CEO's, upper level management of major companies and all members of the top 1%.

[lonestarnot]

65. Yep that was easy!

:toast:

[NC_Nurse]

67. Of course, opposite day!

I remember my kids talking about that! :-)

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

68. From Last Night's "The Simpsons" Episode

In the opening credits, Bart writing on the chalkboard:

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL IS BETTER THAN EVER!

[ozymandius]

72. Closing numbers with a riddle: Reason! Reason! Where is the Reason?!?

Answer: There is no Reason. It's just nature.

Dow 14,087.55 Up 191.92 (1.38%)
Nasdaq 2,740.99 Up 39.49 (1.46%)
S&P 500 1,547.04 Up 20.29 (1.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.557% Down 0.022
NYSE Volume 3,283,212,750
Nasdaq Volume 2,015,340,375

And just read the apologetic blather

4:30 pm : The stock market started the fourth quarter on a high note. The Nasdaq closed at its highest level since 2001 and the Dow finished at an all-time high despite negative early-morning news from Citigroup (C 47.72, +1.05), UBS (UBS 54.94, +1.69) and Walgreens (WAG 40.16, +7.08).

Citigroup warned its third quarter earnings would fall approximately 60% from a year ago due to the credit turmoil. Citigroup did say it expected fourth quarter earnings to be back to normal. The CEO of UBS, meanwhile, reportedly said in an interview that the company expects to take a $3.4 billion write-down and a third quarter loss due to credit market woes.

The fact that the market rallied in the wake of these warnings is a reflection of the improvement in sentiment that followed the Fed's rate cuts last month. Today's action suggested that investors are feeling that the worst of the credit crisis is already priced in the market. That consideration, along with early quarter inflows, short-covering, and arguably, a fear of missing out on the next leg higher, bolstered Monday's gains.

Walgreens, though, was one notable outcast. Its stock got hammered after the drugstore operator reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.40 per share that were seven cents below expectations. Walgreens cited lower drug reimbursement, higher salary and store expenses, and higher advertising costs for the disappointment.

Separately, the ISM Index, which is a gauge of national manufacturing activity, dipped to 52.0 for September from 52.9 in August. The data were slightly lower than the consensus estimate of 52.5. The reading shows manufacturing is expanding, though, as a number above 50 reflects growth.

Nine of the ten S&P 500 sectors finished the day in the green. The financial (+2.08%), utility (+1.6%), and materials (+1.6%) sectors had the largest gains today.

Monday's biggest laggard was the consumer staples sector (-0.2%). The substantial decline in Walgreens was the main factor for its underperformance.

Briefing.com downgraded consumer staples to Market Weight on Monday morning, noting the stock market's lower downside risk following the FOMC rate cuts.

As far as commodities go, crude oil futures slipped 1.8% to $80.19. Gold rose 0.5% to $753.70.

The dollar index (+0.2%) saw a slight increase today, but the dollar is still trading near all-time low levels. DJ30 +191.92 NASDAQ +39.49 SP500 +20.29 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1.96 bln/855/2135 NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 792/2508/1.42 bln