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I hope he is right.
1. China. Gets much of its oil from Iran. Holds much of U.S. debt paper. They going to just sit by and let Bush/U.S. take out their major oil supplier?
2. Iran is well-defended, unlike Iraq, which had been softened up by 12 years of economic sanctions and no-fly-zone bombings, and Iraq had no air force. Iran is no pushover. Nor are they stupid. (Look how they de-fused the British sailors capture incident--they will not be easy to lure into war or trick.) Ground invasion, no way. We simply don't have the cannon fodder--and truth is we don't have the money. We have a $10 trillion deficit already. So it would have to be massive bombing or nuke bombing. But to what end? 50 million more refugees? A million more people slaughtered? Not to mention that there would be NO JUSTIFICATION! I think it would turn the world upside down--which brings me to point 3...
3. The rest of the world. a) A nuke attack threatens the entire planet (read Carl Sagan's "The Cold and the Dark")--could kick up a dust cloud that could smother all life on earth in a couple of months, and it would at the least irradiate a section of Iran, and possibly the entire Middle East--for WHAT?!; b) There are a number of powers gunning for us--China (holds our debt paper), Venezuela (supplies us with 15% of our oil), Russia (Putin pissed about NATO missiles in eastern Europe), Pakistan (God knows what would happen there), the EU and Turkey could be impacted (at the least with refugees)--it could ignite civil chaos, and fury at the U.S., and most of South America is now governed by leftist (majorityist), anti-Bush/U.S. governments; also China, Russia and India had a quiet meeting a few months ago on how to stop the lawless U.S. An attack on Iran could trigger serious economic retaliation, and possibly WW III, and the U.S. would be virtually without allies.
4. Israel could well be the first casualty (after a million Iranians). Pakistan has nukes. Worldwide jihad could be triggered.
To sum up, attacking Iran is TOTALLY INSANE. You can be sure some military "geniuses" (not) have thought up a number of plans for conventional bombing that they think will cripple Iran. The trouble is, once you start something like that, it could escalate very fast into a truly out of control series of events. We don't have the troops. We don't have the money. We don't have the right. We don't have the allies. The American people are boiling mad already. It could well trigger civil unrest and revolution here.
It's going to take a lot more preparation--which is what Hillary is all about, I think. A little smiley-faced "liberalism" to smother dissent here for a while; get a military Draft; stabilize the economy (somehow); stabilize Iraq (somehow); and use diplomacy, bullying, kneecapping, whatever, to get allies (which will take time).
We have seen one fascist outrage after another, from both Republipukes and Demorats. So it's easy to believe that they would commit such a mind-boggling atrocity--not just a double-whammy war crime (Iraq, Iran), but the final destruction of the United States of America, as a democracy and a country capable of doing good in the world. But I do think that the above constraints are real. If they're going to bomb Iran--even with conventional weapons--THEN what are they going to DO with Iran? They can't occupy it. And then you've got TWO chaotic countries. Even from a cynical global corporate predator perspective, it's nuts. How do you get the oil out of totally ruined, chaotic countries?
It's important, too, to realize what the goals of such a thing would NOT be. Protection of Israel? Nope. As I said, Israel could be the first casualty. In fact, I can't think of anything that would make Israel more vulnerable than a U.S. attack on Iran. Creating a "free trade" paradise for global corporate looters? Look at Iraq!!! One-time looting of the U.S. federal treasury, is what it mostly is. Just like oil is a one-time thing. The place is a desert! Where does prosperity really come from? Trees and water. Very scarce in the Middle East. So you've got a desert, with two smashed countries, and millions of refugees. No shopping malls any time soon. Spreading freedom and democracy? We're so not doing that, it makes you want to cry.
The driver is oil! And neither can that be ripped off, with half the Middle East in chaos, as the least potential consequence of U.S. bombing of Iran.
The dirtbag, Diebolded, corporate lackeys who are running the White House, or running for emperor, and who are pissing all over the American people in Congress, may well do this terrible thing, but not right now, is my guess. "Impeachment is off the table"--so that incentive for Dick's trigger finger is removed. (Could have been shrewdness on Pelosi's part--hard to say.) They terrorize us--and the Iranians--with it. But it may just be bullshit. At least for now.
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