STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 11

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday October 11, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 467 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2470 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2182 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2143
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 10, 2007

Dow... 14,078.69 -85.84 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq... 2,811.61 +7.70 (+0.27%)
S&P 500... 1,562.47 -2.68 (-0.17%)
Gold future... 746.00 +2.90 (+0.39%)
30-Year Bond 4.86% -0.00 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.65% -0.00 (-0.09%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Refiner Rebound Ahead
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

The refining industry bolted out of the gate this year with returns ranging from 40% to 150% from the start of the year to the July highs. Part of the reason that the refining stocks did so well was due to the expansion in refining margins.

-chart-

In September of last year the Nymex WTI Cushing crude oil 3-2-1 crack spread was roughly $4.63 a barrel, with crude oil (WTIC) at $66.25 a barrel, putting the crude oil to crack spread multiple at 14.31. Looking at the relationship between the relative prices of the two shows an average multiple of 5.37 and extreme deviations between the two can be used to determine refining margins tops and bottoms. For example, the multiple reached more than three standard deviations from the mean in February and October of last year, indicating refining margins were depressed relative to crude oil. Conversely, extreme lows in the multiple indicate that refining margins should come down relative to crude oil prices, with tops seen in August of 2006 and July 2007.

-chart-

With the refining stocks entering 2007 with the crude to crack spread multiple 4.4 standard deviations above the mean, the stage was set for refining margins to expand as well as the stocks. This is exactly what happened with the crack spread bottoming at $7.42 a barrel in early January and running up to $29.84 a barrel in May, up 302% in five months. Refining shares in that time had moved up 20% to 80%, and continued higher along with the markets even as refining margins were coming down.

-cut-

With the above mentioned fundamentals for the refining industry, refining margins are likely to rebound as are the stocks. Despite refining stocks posting year-to-date (YTD) returns ranging from the low 20% range to the low 60% range, they still offer great value as an equally-weighted index of seven refiners shows the index is closer to a 3-year price-to-earnings (PE) low than a high, with the 3-year PE low of 7. The 3-year PE high of 14 was seen back in late 2005 with the destruction brought on by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, with the index consolidating in 2006.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Sep
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.1%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Sep
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior -0.1%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/06
Briefing Forecast 315K
Market Expects 315K
Prior 317K

8:30 AM Trade Balance Aug
Briefing Forecast -$58.5B
Market Expects -$59.5B
Prior -$59.2B

2:00 PM Trsy Budget - may be delayed Sep
Briefing Forecast $113.0B
Market Expects $100.0B
Prior $56.2B

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

22. Initial Claims in @ 308,000 - last wk rev'd up 3,000

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1134039820071011

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless aid fell a larger-than-expected 12,000 last week, the government said on Thursday, while the number of longer-term unemployed unexpectedly fell to its lowest level since June.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits fell to 308,000 in the week ended Oct. 6 from an upwardly revised 320,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said, and roughly on par with the same period a year ago.

The number of so-called continued claims fell for the second straight week, dropping by 15,000 to 2.52 million in the week ended Sept. 22, the latest period for which figures were available. Economists had forecast a rise to 2.55 million.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. Sept import prices rise on petroleum costs

http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN1134101220071011

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. import prices rose a larger-than-expected 1 percent in September, government data showed on Thursday, boosted by rising petroleum prices.

Excluding a 5.4 percent gain in imported petroleum prices, import prices fell 0.2 percent last month, the Labor Department said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.9 percent rise in import prices in September.

Import prices data will be one of the inflation indicators the U.S. Federal Reserve will scrutinize as they decide on interest rates at their next policy meeting on Oct. 30-31.

The report also showed that export prices rose 0.3 percent in September as expected after rising 0.2 percent in August, boosted by a 4.1 percent gain in agricultural prices. The rise in agricultural prices was the largest one-month increase since November. Higher prices for wheat, soybeans and corn accounted for most of the advance.

The drop in nonpetroleum import prices was driven by a 1.4 percent decline in nonpetroleum industrial supplies and material prices. Lower prices for metals and natural gas were the primary contributors to the decrease, the department said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. US trade gap narrows more than expected in August

http://www.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idUSN1026842720071011

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in August to $57.6 billion, as the weak U.S. dollar and stronger growth overseas helped push exports to a record, a U.S. Commerce Department report showed on Thursday

Wall Street analysts had pegged the August trade gap at $59 billion, down slightly from the previously reported figure of $59.25 billion for July, which the Commerce Department revised on Thursday to $59 billion.

The trade deficit might have narrowed further if not for record oil import prices. The non-petroleum trade gap totalled $40.2 billion, the lowest since $39.5 billion in May 2004. In contrast, the $24.3 billion petroleum trade deficit was the highest since $26 billion in August 2006.

U.S. exports of goods and services rose for the sixth consecutive month to a record $138.3 billion, led by record shipments in several categories, including overall goods; overall services; foods, feeds and beverages; industrial supplies and materials; and consumer goods.

...more...

[AnneD]

45. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurker. I know I am getting to the party late but stand back...I'm fired up.

:rant: I can't tell whether these folks don't have the brains that God gave a turnip or if they fell OFF the turnip truck. Yes, I typed what I meant to say. First these 'real economist of genius':sarcasm: (as if I really need that icon here) want an interest rate cut. They get a generous cut and all the while the Fed printing presses are running so fast that the ink is catching fire. Now with our dollar having almost the same worth as the peso, these 'surprised' eCONomists say that the trade deficit narrowed more than expected. Imagine their state of mind when the dollar becomes worthless, the price of oil shoots up, and the trade deficit resumes widening.

How are we to close the gap? Our 'Captains of Industry' have gutted our manufacturing base, we have less to sell in the marketplace so that won't help. They can't print their way out of the problem cause the world is on to that trick-besides we really would be giving away our goods in the marketplace and they would pay us back in our own worthless currency. I am beginning to suspect that may have been the intent all the time-to bring down the value of the dollar and develop an Amero, like the Euro. I would not have given much credence to that but I not poo pooing the idea any more.

So how else can we close the gap. Balancing the budget seems to be a logical set but that mean taxes. Frankly I don't have a problem with that and the first thing they need to tax are the folks that are getting a free ride and the first thing I would repeal is the "Paris Hilton" tax aka the death tax aka the inheritance tax. I would start taxing capital gains. Anyone earning money whether via labour or through investment should be taxed. And if these folks say oh, but the folks that invest take more risks-I say bologna and mention the interest rate cuts and all the money being pumped into the system to keep these hedge funds afloat so these guys can get their money out or inflate the housing market or even the S&L crisis if you go back far enough. These 'investors have been on the Federal tit long enough. I think there is room to cut military spending too. Let's encourage business and open up biding on Gov. military contracts while we trim the excess. And while we're at it, let's bring the boys home too.

Where I wouldn't cut and maybe even beef up would be-research and education, esp in alternative fuels and tackling global warming. That could yield all kinds of new businesses. How about boosting FEMA and doing a universal health care. If businesses don't have to deal with health care-they can be more profitable. Of course the insurance industry would take a hit-but hey, they haven't been paying claims anyway, and I can't think of a group I would like to cut back more on. Health care could actually spend more money on health care instead of servicing insurance company claims. Wow, what a concept.:eyes:

So now we have reduced our debt and invested money into growth. We don't have to worry about terrorist attacks or natural disasters because our Reserve troops work tirelessly to protect our borders on their weekend and two week duties. Veterans and their families get excellent medical care and benefits their sacrifices have merited.

I know this does not have anything to do with the economy but to insure wold piece and to demonstrate that we are good world citizens, I suggest that we turn in this current administration for crimes against humanity-but that's just me;)


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises on Nigeria strike, BP fire

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Thursday in Asia, extending overnight gains on news of a surprise strike at Chevron Corp. facilities in Nigeria and another fire at BP PLC's Alaskan oil field.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery climbed 31 cents to $81.61 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by mid-afternoon in Singapore. The contract rose $1.04 to settle at $81.30 a barrel Wednesday in New York.

Oil prices often rise when oil supplies are threatened in Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer and one of the top overseas suppliers to the United States.

-cut-

Traders said investors were also buying ahead of an inventory report from the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration due later Thursday, as they bet on data showing an increase in crude stockpiles. The report will be released a day later than normal due to Monday's Columbus Day holiday.

According to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of analysts, crude oil inventories are expected to have gained 1 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 5, while refinery use is expected to have fallen by 0.1 percentage point to 87.4 percent of capacity.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

8. Record oil prices seen denting demand

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071011/bs_nm/iea_oil_dc

LONDON (Reuters) - World oil demand will grow more slowly than expected in the fourth quarter as record-high oil prices prompt some consumers to seek alternatives, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday.

The IEA, adviser to industrialized countries, said in its monthly Oil Market Report demand will rise by 2.03 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter from a year ago, 320,000 bpd less than previously expected.

"There has been a bit of substitution going on, natural gas for oil, which is essentially a price effect," Lawrence Eagles, head of the IEA's Oil Industry and Markets Division, told Reuters.

"There have also been some small downward adjustments to economic growth, which have also played a role."

The cut in fourth-quarter demand follows a similar move by the IEA last month and points to a slightly lower need for oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the final months of 2007.

...more...

[ozymandius]

4. Greenscam's piehole openeth, demandeth medal for his screwupishness.

Greenspan sees U.S. economic toll from credit crunch

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The credit crunch that has troubled financial markets in recent months will eventually take its toll on the U.S. economy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday.

Greenspan, who many now blame for inflating the housing bubble during his tenure, said home prices would almost certainly fall and that the slump will eventually prompt consumers to cut back spending.

-cut-

Greenspan has been an active commentator on the economy since leaving the Fed in early 2006. His pronouncements have roiled financial markets at times, though the frequency of his recent appearances* have diluted their impact.

His record has also come under attack, with some critics lambasting him for inflating asset bubbles and undermining fiscal discipline in Washington. Greenspan has defended his policies, saying global forces out of the central bank's control have dictated the path of long-term borrowing costs.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071010/bs_nm/usa_economy_greenspan_dc

* He is whoring his book, after all.

[ozymandius]

5. Short day for me.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I am teaching high school classes in government and economics today. It's a whole bunch of fun. We are mainly concerned with the history of the Constitution right now - the movers and shakers of the time. Economics is an inevitable part of it and an element I introduced yesterday.

Great kids too.

So I'll check back in this afternoon. Probably after the close.

Our beloved RadFringe has fallen on some hardship. Please give her some love.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

7. have a great day, Ozy!

I never know how many minutes I'm going to have for the SMW these days, but a lot of good DUers have been stepping in and keeping the thread moving.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

6. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.065 Change -0.250 (-0.32%)

Euro Back Above 1.41 As Dollar Doubts Rise

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Euro_Back_Above_1_41_As_1192045295045.html

A tough day for dollar longs as none of the event risk data proved greenback positive, pushing the EURUSD back above the 1.4100 figure after the pair flirted briefly with breaking support at 1.40 just 24 hours earlier. First, the IDD survey of economic optimism surprised to the downside printing at 47.3 versus 49.0 expected. This was the lowest reading since April of 2007 and suggests that consumer spending is likely to remain moribund for the foreseeable future creating a drag on economic growth.

Secondly, the FOMC minutes revealed that Fed members expressed little concern over inflation, remaining essentially neutral in their assessment of pricing pressures and were more focused on risks to growth. While the latest communiqué from the Fed showed little inclination to cut rates yet again in October, the general tone of the discussion suggested a willingness to loosen monetary policy further before the year end. That idea was reinforced last night by the San Francisco Fed Chief Janet Yellen who noted in a speech that a case for an additional rate cut in 2007 could be made even if the capital markets see no further financial shock. Ms. Yellen stated that the recent repricing of risk in the credit markets is in and of itself a contractionary event for the US economy suggesting that further easing may be necessary.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the trade the euro received some positive news as both French and Italian production data printed better than forecast. Coming on the heels of better that expected readings in German Industrial Production, the latest data from the region indicates that despite euro’s relentless rise, EZ manufactures are able to adjust to the high exchange rate regime with minimal negative impact. This in turn took some political pressure off the ECB to immediately restrain euro’s latest ascent, boosting the unit .

...more...

US Dollar: Are All Bets Off for an October Rate Cut?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/US_Dollar__Are_All_Bets_1192053456415.html

We are continuing to see directionless movement in the US dollar which has strengthened against some currencies but fallen against others. Futures traders got it right yesterday when they drove rate cut expectations down sharply following the release of the FOMC minutes. Equity traders have finally followed suit by taking the Dow down 80 points today. It seems to be only a matter of time before currency traders take the dollar higher as well. The only reason why they are holding back is because they want to see Friday’s retail sales and non-farm payrolls report before deciding whether all bets are truly off for an October interest rate cut. Tomorrow’s report on import and export prices will be a leading indicator for whether producer prices last month were as firm as the market expects. In addition to PPI, the trade balance and jobless claims are also due for release. Inflationary pressures are expected to rise as the result of strong commodity prices and a weaker dollar. The latest comments from FOMC voter Rosengren indicate that the Fed supports a weaker dollar. Rosengren said that a weaker dollar is good for exports and for the time being, the pass through inflation from foreigners are not nearly as great as we might expect because a number of foreign importers frequently price to the US market rather than their own market. We continue to believe that the Federal Reserve does not need to lower interest rates at the end this month, especially if retail sales remain positive. The have already made a big move to stabilize the economy and so far, it seems to have worked. All we need now is to make sure consumer spending holds steady and data indicates that inflationary pressures are as strong as the Fed suggests. If that materializes, then the Fed has all the flexibility they need to leave interest rates unchanged and dollar bulls have the fundamental reasons to take the currency higher.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

12. How to prevent a rout of the declining dollar

By Jeffrey Garten Published: October 10 2007 19:53 | Last updated: October 10 2007 19:53
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a8c0004a-7760-11dc-9de8-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

When Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, says the US believes in a strong dollar, he is merely repeating an empty mantra, for the Bush administration continues to rely almost entirely on an ever weakening dollar as the central thrust of its international economic policy.

When a European leader such as Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the group of 13 eurozone ministers, publicly demands discussions of the soaring euro at the upcoming Group of Seven industrial nations meeting in Washington, he is just venting his frustration, for it has been decades since the G7 accomplished anything on currency misalignments.

The fact is, words hardly matter in today’s gigantic marketplace. Only action does.

Leaders are behaving like deer caught in the headlights. Yet some action is crucial now because the dollar’s orderly retreat could at any time change into a chaotic rout, given the uncertainties and anxieties in today’s markets. The danger is enhanced as every sign – financial, economic and political – points to a dollar that will continue to drop, making a bet on a weaker dollar nearly a risk-free proposition.

Moreover, while the Bush administration exalts the export stimulus from a weakening dollar, the overall effect of continuous devaluation will be highly detrimental to America. It will be inflationary, because it will raise the price of imports, including oil and other commodities. At a time when the US needs to borrow $2bn (€1.4m) (£979m) a day to finance its current account deficits, a depreciating dollar will act as a disincentive to foreign investment in US government securities unless American interest rates are raised. A weakened greenback will also expose US industries to foreign takeovers at bargain basement prices. Admittedly, conflicting interests among countries make any grand scheme, such as the Plaza Accord that realigned and stabilised currencies in 1985, a non-starter. There are, however, at least four moves that finance ministers and central bankers should make soon.

/read on...

[Ghost Dog]

18. Euro gains vs yen, dollar as rate outlook shifts

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20071011:MTFH15068_2007-10-11_11-11-28_L1141022&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Thu Oct 11, 2007 7:11am ET

LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The euro rallied for a third day in a row against the dollar on Thursday as expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold faded, while the yen felt the brunt of a continuing increase in risk appetite.

In a session dominated by rate differentials, the euro was also on track for its largest one-day rise against the yen in nearly three weeks after the Bank of Japan left its benchmark overnight call rate unchanged at 0.5 percent by eight to one, the same vote tally as at the past three meetings.

But the focus remained squarely on the dollar, which has now surrendered all the gains against the euro from last Friday's strong jobs data that soothed some concern about the resilience of the U.S. economy and undermined expectations for further rate cuts this year.

"Most of the uncertainty for the U.S. is not past us and won't be until the end of the year, as we roll into the beginning of next year and see if we get more worries or if concern over poor earnings materialises," said Morgan Stanley currency strategist Laura Ambroseno.

"It's too early to tell ... clearly Europe is also being impacted by a couple of things. At the margin, the impact that the August/September events will have in terms of tighter credit and higher rates, but you also have the European economy and the UK reaching a natural peak in their own business cycles," she said.

At 1050 GMT the euro was up 0.4 percent against dollar $1.4206 <EUR=>, set for its biggest one-day rise in two weeks, while against the yen, the euro rose 0.6 percent at 166.70 yen <EURJPY=>, around its highest since late July.

/...

[UpInArms]

9. Sept. foreclosure filings up from 2006 (nearly doubled)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071011/ap_on_bi_ge/foreclosure_rates

LOS ANGELES - Foreclosure filings across the U.S. nearly doubled last month compared with September 2006, as financially strapped homeowners already behind on mortgage payments defaulted on their loans or came closer to losing their homes to foreclosure, a real estate information company said Thursday.

A total of 223,538 foreclosure filings were reported in September, up from 112,210 in the same month a year ago, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc.

The number of filings in September was down 8 percent from August's 243,947, the firm said.

Despite the sequential decline, the September figure represents the second-highest total for filings in a single month since the company began tracking monthly filings two years ago.

"August was an extraordinarily high month for foreclosure activity, so some falloff was almost predictable," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president for marketing.

...more...

[mojavekid]

41. Reuters: Countrywide slashes jobs as bad loans rise

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071011/countrywide_results.html?.v=6

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Countrywide Financial Corp (NYSE:CFC - News) said on Thursday it funded 44 percent fewer mortgage loans in September as it tightened lending standards, while delinquencies increased and foreclosures more than doubled.

The largest U.S. mortgage lender also said it eliminated 4,935 jobs last month, leaving it with 55,932. It has said it plans to cut as many as 12,000 jobs, or 20 percent, by December to cope with a deepening U.S. housing slump.

snip...

In its monthly operating report, Calabasas, California-based Countrywide said mortgage lending fell to $21.2 billion in September from $38.1 billion a year earlier, and fell 39 percent from $35.1 billion in August.

Funding of adjustable-rate loans slid 76 percent from a year earlier, while nonprime loans, including subprime, tumbled 92 percent. The pipeline of unclosed mortgages, an indicator of future activity, fell 20 percent from August to $41.5 billion.

Among loans that Countrywide services, delinquencies as a percentage of unpaid principal rose to 5.85 percent from 4.90 percent in August and 4.04 percent last September.

The rate of pending foreclosures more than doubled to 1.27 percent from 0.51 percent a year earlier, Countrywide said.

more...

[Roland99]

51. Investor Concern About Countrywide (CFC) CEO Stock Sales (check out *this* commentary!!)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/investor-concern-about-countrywide-cfc/story.aspx?guid=%7BFF1AE090%2DB9A7%2D462E%2D9743%2D5C7A62985BAF%7D

Now, the treasurer of North Carolina has written the head of the SEC and asked the agency to look into the sales. “As an investor and a Countrywide shareholder, I was shocked to learn that C.E.O. Angelo Mozilo apparently manipulated his trading plans to cash in, just as the sub-prime crisis was heating up and Countrywide’s fortunes were cooling off,” Mr. Moore wrote.

The charge may or may not be true. But the wording of the letter is probably why the treasurer of North Carolina cannot get a real job making money in the private sector. While the statement in his letter may be accurate, he would have no way to prove that. If he could, there would be no reason to send a letter to the SEC.

Mr. Mozilo may be a nasty fellow. His company may have offered mortgages to people who could not pay them back. He may not go to heaven when he dies.

But, North Carolina can't prove a word of what it is charging. So, it would be wise to keep the rhetoric to a dull roar and let the SEC do its work.

:wtf:

[UpInArms]

10. Retailers cut outlooks as consumer spending slows

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071011/bs_nm/retail_outlook_dc

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Retailers Men's Wearhouse (MW.N), American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO.N) and PetSmart Inc (PETM.O) cut profit forecasts on Wednesday after a wave of weak sales reports.

Large and small U.S. retailers have reported signs of cautious spending by consumers, who are feeling the pain of higher food and gasoline prices as the housing market decelerates after buoying consumer confidence and spending for years.

Shares in Houston-based Men's Wearhouse fell 4.6 percent in extended trade after the company cut its third-quarter per-share earnings estimate to a range of 66 cents to 70 cents from its previous forecast calling for earnings of 70 cents to 73 cents per share.

The retailer, which specializes in men's work and formal wear, said light customer traffic at its K&G Superstore outlets contributed to weak same-store sales. It also linked the integration of its recently acquired After Hours chain to lower tuxedo rental unit volume.

Teen and young adult retailer American Eagle posted a 2 percent decline in September same-store sales on Wednesday, prompting the retailer to cut its third-quarter earnings outlook.

...more...

[KoKo]

36. I was in Belks Dept. Store last night.....and overheard

one of the sales associates saying they had done 10,000 Mark Downs in the Womens Department overnight.:wow;

And this was after markdowns for the Columbus Day Sales! How much more can they Mark Down before there's little profit? Also tons of Spring/Summer merchandise in racks everywhere. Clothes that had been marked $40.00 and up selling for 75% off...all Name Brands.

[Buttercup McToots]

11. USD $77.98...@7:08

Good Morning:donut:

[Ghost Dog]

13. GLOBAL MARKETS-Global stock rally continues, yen weakens on BOJ

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20071011:MTFH11870_2007-10-11_08-35-48_L11598344&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Thu Oct 11, 2007 4:35am ET

LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Global shares kept up their rally on Thursday, with Europe rising and emerging markets at yet another all-time high, while the yen weakened when the Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold.

The focus among developed market stock investors is turning from credit and interest rates towards third-quarter corporate earnings but Wall Street disappointments on Wednesday failed to carry over.

...

European shares were higher. The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares was up 0.6 percent.

Earlier, Japan's Nikkei <.N225> rose 1.6 percent to end at its highest in nearly two and a half months, boosted by a sovereign debt upgrade from rating agency Moody's and unfazed by the Bank of Japan's hold on interest rates. The benchmark added 281.09 points to 17,458.98, the highest finish since July 26. The broader TOPIX index <.TOPX> climbed 1.2 percent or 19.34 points to 1,677.52, its highest close since Aug. 9.

...

General dollar weakness against the euro remained, with the euro up 0.35 percent at $1.4194 <EUR=>.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

14. Emerging equities to rise further-GS

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20071011:MTFH13468_2007-10-11_09-52-12_L11922118&type=comktNews&rpc=44

MSCI benchmark emerging equities index <.MSCIEF> hits record peak for 5th successive day, rallying 1.3 pct from U.S. close as investors see strong prospects for global growth.

Goldman Sachs says equity issuance remains strong in emerging markets, and the rally in prices can continue.

"While valuations in emerging markets have become less cheap, both fundamental and technical factors suggest emerging stocks have further to run," GS analysts say in a client note.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

16. French regulator flags risks in China stocks surge

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20071011:MTFH14456_2007-10-11_10-39-54_PEK309705&type=comktNews&rpc=44

BEIJING, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Chinese investors have lost sight of the risks of buying shares and need to beware the possibility of a sharp correction, France's securities regulator said on Thursday.

"Investing in the securities market is not gambling," Michel Prada, chairman of France's Autorite des Marches Financiers, told reporters. "One of the most difficult things to do is to make investors aware that markets are not ever going to the sky."

Shanghai's main share index <.SSEC> has risen 400 percent since the start of last year.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

15. ECB's Trichet: global, euro zone growth still robust

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20071011:MTFH13835_2007-10-11_10-10-17_L11129531&type=comktNews&rpc=44

MOSCOW, Oct 10 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Thursday that economic growth in the euro zone and globally remains robust, despite the recent volatility on financial markets.

Trichet also warned market participants to be aware of the risks associated with one-way bets on currency markets, confirming past comments on foreign exchange rates. Speaking at a news conference with Russian central bank governor Sergei Ignatyev, he said the ECB stuck to its previous outlook for the euro zone economy.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

19. VW leads Europe bourses higher

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9d48a8da-77e6-11dc-8e4c-0000779fd2ac.html

Volkswagen led a rally by European stocks on Thursday as demand for its vehicles in China surged almost 30 per cent this year and indexes were also buoyed by a bullish performance from telecoms stocks.

In mid-morning trade the FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose by 0.5 per cent to 1598.19, Germany’s Xetra Dax climbed 0.7 per cent to 8040.96, the French CAC 40 was up 0.5 per cent to 5869.87 and the FTSE 100 rose 0.8 per cent to 6687.2.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

20. FTSE nears six-year high

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e8fdabf4-77cd-11dc-8e4c-0000779fd2ac.html

The FTSE 100 neared a new six-year high on Thursday amid a strong rally in commodities stocks.

Less than two months after the credit squeeze dragged the index to a year-low of 5,858.9, the index closed to within 35 points of the closing high set in mid-June.

By late morning, the FTSE 100 was 45.2 points, or 0.5 per cent, higher at 6,678.2.

Mining stocks led the gainers, a sign of increasing investor confidence in the global economy.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

57. Telecoms, commodities bolster Europe stock rebound

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-10-11T163219Z_01_L11241514_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-3.XML&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage4

LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - European shares ended higher on Thursday, as promises of higher returns to shareholders at Telefonica (TEF.MC: Quote, Profile , Research) lifted telecoms, and commodity stocks gained from higher oil and metal prices.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> of top European shares ended 0.62 percent higher at 1,599.43 points, making it the tenth day of gains in the last twelve. The close is the highest since July 23.

The index has gained around 3 percent so far this month, putting it on track for a recovery after worries linked to credit markets took 13 percent off European shares in one month from mid-July.

...

Across Europe, Britain's commodity-heavy FTSE 100 .FTSE gained 1.4 percent, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> rose 0.6 percent and France's CAC 40 rose 0.4 percent.

/details...

[UpInArms]

17. S&P 500 Q3 earns likely to turn negative tomorrow - Thomson

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sp-500-set-post-first/story.aspx?guid=%7B3267E389%2D78DE%2D4E51%2DAA25%2D4FED814A0466%7D&siteid=bnb

2:29 PM ET Oct 10, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Third-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies have "a good chance" of turning negative for the first time in five years on Thursday, after factoring in Wednesday's profit-warnings from a slew of energy stocks, Thomson Financial said. "There's a good chance that we'll go negative tomorrow," said John Butters, analyst at Thomson Financial. The third-quarter earnings growth rate is currently at 0.1%, and that's without factoring in the profit warnings from Chevron (CVX), Valero Energy (VLO) and others, he said. However, Butters said that upwards revisions from other companies could keep the growth rate positive. Should year-on-year comparisons turned negative, it would be the first quarter of negative growth since the first quarter of 2002, Butters said.

[texpatriot2004]

21. K & R nm

[UpInArms]

25. Fed Pumping: Fed adds $6.0 bln in temporary reserves via 14-day repo

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYG00078320071011

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $6.0 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system via a 14-day repurchase agreement.

Federal funds traded in the market steady at 2.0 percent after the operation amount was announced, well below the 4.75 percent target rate the Fed sets.

The Fed said collateral accepted in the operation was $6.0 billion in Treasuries.

A total of $107.9 billion in bids were submitted for the operation.

[Buttercup McToots]

26. Ahhhh....

That's why...

[Hugin]

27. 2.0%!i!!!i

By golly! They're handing out FREE MONEY!

Here I thought the rally was due to the fact Wal-Mart had finally succeeded in
removing every last benefit from their employees and calling the pittance 'profit'.

It's a trick they can't repeat. Due to the fact their employees have no more to give.
Well, ah... Unless they can convince their employees to 'pay' for the privilege of
serving.

We shall see.

I notice the UAW/Chrysler agreement gets no mention. Can't let any of that filthy
collective bargaining take the shine off of the Free Market BS. :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

28. More Pumping: Fed adds $9.5 billion in reserves via o/n repos

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1135571920071011

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $9.5 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight repurchases.

Federal funds traded in the open market were at 4.813 percent, above the Fed's target rate of 4.75 percent.

The Fed said $44.1 billion worth of bids were submitted. It accepted $200 million worth of Treasuries, $3.722 billion in agencies and $5.578 billion worth of mortgage backed securities.

[UpInArms]

29. More Pumping: Fed adds $20 bln in reserves via 7-day repo

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNYD00010920071011

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added $20 billion of temporary reserves to the banking system through seven-day repurchases.

A total of $86.95 billion in bids were submitted for the operation. The Fed said it accepted $17.5 billion in Treasuries and $2.5 billion in agency debt.

[DemReadingDU]

34. just WOW

:wow:


Edit to add: How long can the Fed keep pumping up the market like this?

[JNelson6563]

39. They think they can do this forever

I find it alarming that there seems to be no effort to come up with a long range plan, just get-us-through-the-day kinda stuff. Like a junkie.

Julie

[DemReadingDU]

53. Something isn't holding today

I run errands and come back to fnd that DJIA has last all its gains today, and then some.

:shrug:

[mojavekid]

42. Gold loves it...$751.10

[Buttercup McToots]

43. Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes...

Go Gold!!


ps
I'm a goldbug

[ret5hd]

44. oh, there are some here who will jump on you for that! ...

I'm just wondering exactly at what price they WOULD be pro-gold.
At $400 it was a suckers bet
At $500 it was a suckers bet
At $600 it was a suckers bet
At $700 it was a suckers bet

At what point do you say, "man, i shoulda got on the train!"

[Mojorabbit]

48. I got on at 500

and am pleased so far. I don't have a whole lot but am glad I have what I do.

[JNelson6563]

49. I caught that train just before $400 an ounce.

:toast:

[Ghost Dog]

55. Up 25% in Euro terms here,

against my average purchase price.

[UpInArms]

30. Moody's cuts Centex, Lennar, Pulte (home builders) to junk status

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1136007520071011

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Thursday cut its ratings on home builders Centex Corp (CTX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Lennar Corp (LEN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and Pulte Homes (PHM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) to junk status, saying it expects bleak housing industry conditions to linger at least until 2009.

The downgrades affect about $9.4 billion of debt and $3.25 billion of commercial paper authorizations, Moody's said.

Key problems facing home builders include rapidly declining orders, high housing inventories, disruptions in the mortgage market and heavy cancellations, Moody's said in a statement.

Affordability issues are also weighing on key markets while confidence is ebbing among potential home buyers, it added.

It will be challenging for the three companies, as well as for much of the entire industry, to stay in compliance in the coming year with debt leverage covenants, the rating agency said. Covenants are restrictions in borrowing agreements.

...more...

[Roland99]

32. Centex is junk? Ouch!

[w8liftinglady]

35. please forgive my ignorance,but what exactly does junk status mean?

[UpInArms]

37. definition of corporate ratings:

http://www.blaha.net/Finance%20Corporate%20Debt%20Ratings.htm

Here is an explanation of the Corporate Debt Rating Systems. The most popular of which is Moody's followed by S&P. The news often mentions when a large company is upgraded or downgraded by a debt rating service. The reason these stories are making news is that the company's financial health is being examined. Downgrades typically mean that based on historical calculations, firms in similar financial condition have been more likely to default on their obligations. Upgrades of course mean the opposite.

<snip>

Moody's Rating	
Average Default Rate Within One Year of Rating (1970-2001)	
Definition	
Notes

Aaa	0.00%	
Highest Rating Available	
Investment grade bonds.

Aa	0.02%	
Very High Quality

A	0.01%	
High Quality

Baa	0.15%	
Minimum Investment Grade

Ba	1.21%	
Low grade	
Below investment grade. "Junk Bonds"

B	6.53%	
Very speculative

Caa	24.73%	
Substantial Risk

Ca	
Very poor quality

C	
Imminent default or in default

[Hugin]

38. This may answer your question...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-yield_debt

[AnneD]

52. When it costs more to ...

print the stock than it's worth. A cheeky answer-but I think you'll get the drift.

[w8liftinglady]

31. Ok...which is right?Are the increased sales due to foreign commerce?

Retailers report slow September sales
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071011/ap_on_bi_ge/retail_sales;_ylt=Aqwe9bcTQdSFv_MFS3GT6ORv24cA
Several of the nation's largest retailers cut their earnings forecasts Thursday after lingering summer weather and an uncertain economy kept consumers from shopping last month and left the big merchants with disappointing sales.

Stocks trade higher on Wal-Mart forecast
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071011/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=AnWixdRtbzk4neD7td9YpGVv24cA
Stocks rose and bond prices fell Thursday after Wal-Mart Stores Inc. raised its profit forecast and several other retailers managed to put up better-than-expected sales.
While overall monthly sales reports were sluggish, Wall Street appeared relieved that some retailers were able to extract stronger sales even as consumers face uncertainty about the economy, higher fuel prices and, in large swaths of the country, unseasonably warm weather.

[TrogL]

33. Loonie Watch

(bear with me, I'm doing this from home on a fuzzy monitor)

Highlights

Current:



30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2007-09-10 Monday, September 10 0.949487 USD
2007-09-11 Tuesday, September 11 0.958773 USD
2007-09-12 Wednesday, September 12 0.964134 USD
2007-09-13 Thursday, September 13 0.968617 USD
2007-09-14 Friday, September 14 0.971628 USD
2007-09-17 Monday, September 17 0.970214 USD
2007-09-18 Tuesday, September 18 0.977135 USD
2007-09-19 Wednesday, September 19 0.985513 USD
2007-09-20 Thursday, September 20 0.998901 USD
2007-09-21 Friday, September 21 0.999201 USD
2007-09-24 Monday, September 24 0.998901 USD
2007-09-25 Tuesday, September 25 0.9995 USD
2007-09-26 Wednesday, September 26 0.99552 USD
2007-09-27 Thursday, September 27 0.99691 USD
2007-09-28 Friday, September 28 1.00412 USD
2007-10-01 Monday, October 1 1.00715 USD
2007-10-02 Tuesday, October 2 0.9998 USD
2007-10-03 Wednesday, October 3 1.00392 USD
2007-10-04 Thursday, October 4 1.002 USD
2007-10-05 Friday, October 5 1.01885 USD
2007-10-08 Monday, October 8 1.01885 USD
2007-10-09 Tuesday, October 9 1.01564 USD
2007-10-10 Wednesday, October 10 1.01906 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct 
CD.Y$$ Cash        1.0239 1.0271 1.0232 1.0264 +0.0073 +0.72% 
CD.Z07 Dec 2007    1.0242 1.0283 1.0231 1.0268 +0.0073 +0.72% 
CD.H08 Mar 2008    1.0282 1.0282 1.0280 1.0280 +0.0083 +0.81% 
CD.M08 Jun 2008    0.9495        0.9495 1.0199 +0.0015 +0.15% 
CD.U08 Sep 2008    1.0163 1.0195 1.0163 1.0200 +0.0015 +0.15% 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008    0.9530 0.9530 0.9530 1.0201 +0.0015 +0.15% 
CD.H09 Mar 2009    1.0055 1.0060 1.0050 1.0202 +0.0015 +0.15% 
 

Other combinations:

AU.Z07 AUSTRALIAN $/US$ Dec (NYBOT)          0.89425 -0.00100 
HY.Z07 CANADIAN $/JAPANESE YEN Dec (NYBOT) 119.70    +1.14 
GB.Z07 EURO/BRITISH POUND Dec (NYBOT)        0.7011  +0.0070 
EP.Z07 EURO/CANADIAN $ Dec (NYBOT)           1.38795 +0.00055 
EJ.Z07 EURO/JAPANESE YEN Sep (NYBOT)       166.40    +1.88 
EU.Z07 EURO/US$ (LARGE) Sep (NYBOT)          1.4150 +0.0029 

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends this fall's rally above the previous high crossing at 1.0101. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Upside targets are hard to project as December continues to extend this fall's rally into new uncharted territory. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at .9990 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.0263. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at crossing at 1.0122 then last Thursday's low crossing at .9990.

Analysis

Looks like all the bots have just plain given up in disgust. I'm calling for $1.02 close today, hitting $1.03 by early next week and $1.05 by month end.

Could you guys PUHLEEEZZ do something about your economy?

[Demeter]

40. What Economy? I Don't See Any Economy Here

I'm in Michigan, maybe that's why. Home of the Blackwater Prince.

[Spazito]

46. I see kitco is back to that messed up graph on the Canadian dollar

I read yesterday where you got them to fix it but it seems they only did a temporary fix. I find their current graph VERY annoying.

[fasttense]

47. Why the sudden drop in the DJIA and other indexes? Does anyone know? n/t

[Roland99]

50. NASDAQ profit taking....apparently

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-stocks-see-dramatic-reversal/story.aspx?guid=%7B8BBE1681%2DC4A7%2D4D3B%2DB1E5%2D21580C3E751B%7D

[specimenfred1984]

64. Yes, the markets are corrupt as hell and big funds decided to take profits

The stock market has been entirely manipulated for 2+ years. Very large and unregulated funds/banks/investment firms/insurance/mortgage companies buy and sell stocks whenever they feel like it, they don't even bother with using propaganda as an excuse anymore. It's called fascism but most Americans as so brainwashed and dumbed-down they are incapable of even entertaining the idea of it. When I tell people to simply look at the real-time volume in something like the mini S&P 500 futures, their eyes glaze over and they fall into the "but I'm too stupid to understand" mental framework that's become the norm in a society that believes Iraq invaded the U.S. and every other lie that flows from "official" news sources.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

54. Ohio Attorney General Mark Dan This AM On CNBC

Did anybody see him. Dylan Ratigan(sp?) kept trying to interrupt and talk over him, but he kept going and going about how he plans to investigate and prosecute because of the WIDESPREAD FRAUD in the lending industry.

The CNBC people treated him the same way they treat Peter Schiff, mocking him and acting like the powerful companies he would be going after, have nothing to worry about. You know, Goliath against David.

They commented..."We might have another Elliot Spitzer on our hands."

I liked everything he said. I'm guessing he's a Democrat, as he said he was just elected last year.

[DemReadingDU]

58. Marc Dann is a Dem

We Buckeyes voted in a Dem for governor too, Ted Strickland, and a Dem Senator Sherrod Brown.

:woohoo:

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

59. I Loved How He Kept Talking

The CNBC Spinster kept trying to interrupt him, with But....But...But....BLAH BLAH BLAH, and he kept right on finishing what he wanted to say.

He seemed to know what CRAP was going on, and he kept saying that EVERYONE was to blame for the Fiasco which has been taking place in the mortgage industry. He had some pointed words for Mozillo, and seemed to indicate the desire to go after these Corporate Whores, who think they've gotten away with a swindle against the public.

[DemReadingDU]

61. Is this a video of what you saw?

Ohio Attorney General Marc Dann is attacking Wall Street for creating what he calls "the largest financial scam in American history." He joins CNBC's Dylan Ratigan.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=555351889&play=1

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

62. That's It nt

[Ghost Dog]

56. At the close: profit-taking & euro fears

Dow 14,015.12 Down 63.57 (0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,772.20 Down 39.41 (1.40%)
S&P 500 1,554.41 Down 8.06 (0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.6590% Up 0.0120
NYSE Volume 3,865,047,750
Nasdaq Volume 2,561,227,750

4:25 pm : The Dow and S&P were at new highs until 14:00ET when the market steeply sold off in a profit-taking move. The tech sector spear-headed the retreat, which caused the Nasdaq to finish the day 2.2% lower than its intraday high.

Reportedly, the sell-off was prompted by inflation warnings made by Axel Weber, a European Central Bank Council (ECB) member. Weber stated that although the ECB has temporarily paused its rate hikes, in his opinion the ECB may need to raise rates to a "restrictive" level due to European inflation risks.

Market participants used Weber's comments as a reason to take profits, which shouldn't be a complete surprise. After all, the indices have made a remarkable, and unsustainable, run off their lows since August 16. To this point, at their highs today, the Nasdaq, Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Dow, were up 17%, 16%, 15% and 13% from their August 16 lows.

There was a mixed batch of news released today, which fundamentally did not support this market's gains prior to the sell-off.

The September same-store sales retailer reports were not good, but investors did not expect them to be.

Wal-Mart (WMT 46.87, +1.28 ) reported weaker than expected same-store sales, but still raised its third quarter earnings per share guidance. The company cited an improvement in initial margin and expense leverage at the Wal-Mart division.

The weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 308k, which is less than the consensus estimate of 315k. The August trade deficit decreased to $57.6 billion from $59.0 billion in July. The lower trade deficit will give a modest boost to the third quarter GDP calculation.

The Dept. of Energy weekly inventory report showed that crude had a draw compared to an expected build. Crude oil futures were already trading up on supply concerns and then had further gains following the report. Crude oil finished the day up 2.0% to $82.91.

Tomorrow, the Sept. retail sales and PPI reports will be released. Separately, General Electric (GE 41.60, -0.21) is set to report its third quarter earnings before the open.DJ30 -63.57 NASDAQ -39.41 SP500 -8.06 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2071/878/2.54 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2024/1267/1.49 bln

/...

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

60. See That Cliff?

That's the one the U.S. Dollar will fall off, if the ECB raises rates, while the Fed is obviously in a lowering mode.

[UpInArms]

63. closing the door and sweeping the floor

Dow 14,015.12 63.57 (0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,772.20 39.41 (1.40%)
S&P 500 1,554.41 8.06 (0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 4.659% 0.012

NYSE Volume 3,934,483,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,575,434,750

4:25 pm : The Dow and S&P were at new highs until 14:00ET when the market steeply sold off in a profit-taking move. The tech sector spear-headed the retreat, which caused the Nasdaq to finish the day 2.2% lower than its intraday high.

Reportedly, the sell-off was prompted by inflation warnings made by Axel Weber, a European Central Bank Council (ECB) member. Weber stated that although the ECB has temporarily paused its rate hikes, in his opinion the ECB may need to raise rates to a "restrictive" level due to European inflation risks.

Market participants used Weber's comments as a reason to take profits, which shouldn't be a complete surprise. After all, the indices have made a remarkable, and unsustainable, run off their lows since August 16. To this point, at their highs today, the Nasdaq, Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Dow, were up 17%, 16%, 15% and 13% from their August 16 lows.

There was a mixed batch of news released today, which fundamentally did not support this market's gains prior to the sell-off.

The September same-store sales retailer reports were not good, but investors did not expect them to be.

Wal-Mart (WMT 46.87, +1.28 ) reported weaker than expected same-store sales, but still raised its third quarter earnings per share guidance. The company cited an improvement in initial margin and expense leverage at the Wal-Mart division.

The weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 308k, which is less than the consensus estimate of 315k. The August trade deficit decreased to $57.6 billion from $59.0 billion in July. The lower trade deficit will give a modest boost to the third quarter GDP calculation.

The Dept. of Energy weekly inventory report showed that crude had a draw compared to an expected build. Crude oil futures were already trading up on supply concerns and then had further gains following the report. Crude oil finished the day up 2.0% to $82.91.

Tomorrow, the Sept. retail sales and PPI reports will be released. Separately, General Electric (GE 41.60, -0.21) is set to report its third quarter earnings before the open.DJ30 -63.57 NASDAQ -39.41 SP500 -8.06 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2071/878/2.54 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2024/1267/1.49 bln

3:30 pm : Since the last update there has been a second round of selling that has pushed the major indices into new intraday lows. As mentioned before, selling is broad-based, but led by the technology sector.

Nine of the ten economic sectors have now fallen into negative territory. Utilities (+0.1%) is the only sector that has managed to hold some of its gains.

Tomorrow, the much anticipated Sept. retail sales and PPI reports will be released. DJ30 -103.08 NASDAQ -47.04 SP500 -11.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2060/861/2.04 bln

3:00 pm : At this moment, the stock market is off its lows, but there is still a good deal of volatility.

Reportedly, the decline is due to European inflation warnings made by Axel Weber, a European Central Bank Council (ECB) member. Weber stated that although the ECB has temporarily paused its rate hikes, in his opinion the ECB may need to raise rates to a "restrictive" level.

Four of the ten economic sectors are now in the red. Technology (-0.7%), which saw the steepest sell off, is now the main laggard.DJ30 -32.52 NASDAQ -26.02 SP500 -2.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1803/1103/1.81 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1802/1461/960 mln

2:30 pm : In a striking turn of events, the major indices have sold off hard in the past half hour, with each revisiting negative territory.

There wasn't any specific piece of news to account for the reversal that has been broad-based. The tech sector (-0.6%) is spearheading the retreat, although the retailers and consumer discretionary sector (-0.3%) are also playing an active role.

Frankly, the strength in the retail index earlier was questionable in light of the lackluster same-store sales reports for September and the fact that Wal-Mart's (WMT) positive earnings surprise was really a company-specific situation.

That the indices would run into profit taking shouldn't be a complete surprise. After all, they have made a remarkable (and unsustainable run) off their lows since August 16. To this point, at their highs today, the Nasdaq, Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Dow, were up 17%, 16%, 15% and 13% from their August 16 lows.DJ30 -28.94 NASDAQ -27.81 SP500 -5.03 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1518/1305/1.70 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1401/1851/819 mln

2:00 pm : The major indices have dipped since the last update, causing the Nasdaq to trade at its lowest level since the opening bell. The major indices are still holding modest gains.

SLM Corp. (SLM 49.13, +0.50), commonly known as Sallie Mae, posted a loss in its third quarter, due to losses on derivative and hedging activities during the period. For its most recent quarter, Sallie Mae reported a net loss of $344 million, or ($0.85) per share, reversing a year ago profit of $263 million, or $0.60 per share.

Separately, the dollar index (-0.40%) has lost more ground today. The weak dollar has helped drive up the price of gold futures, which are up 1.5% to $757.40.
DJ30 +83.24 NASDAQ +5.08 SP500 +7.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1212/1652/1.31 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1021/2205/734 mln

1:30 pm : The Dow, which has reached intraday highs in the last half hour, is trading more than 20 points above its record close. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P, meanwhile, are holding near their best levels of the day.

The small-cap Russell 2000 Index (+0.7%) and the S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index (+0.7%) are slightly trailing behind the S&P 500.
DJ30 +113.97 NASDAQ +16.69 SP500 +12.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1161/1701/1.19 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1010/2208/686 mln

oh my - from a +113 to a loss of 63 - that's fairly wide swing :eyes: