Turkey Ponders Iraq Campaign

[Hissyspit]

Source: Associated Press

Turkey Ponders Iraq Campaign
2 hours ago

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday that Turkey would not be deterred by the possible consequences of invading Iraq if it decides to stage a cross-border offensive against Kurdish rebels.

"If such an option is chosen, whatever its price, it will be paid," Erdogan told reporters in response to a question about international repercussions of such a decision, which would strain ties with the United States and Iraq. "There could be pros and cons of such a decision, but what is important is our country's interests." A Turkish soldier was killed by a mine Thursday night on Mt. Gabar in southeastern Sirnak province, where 13 soldiers have been ambushed and killed over the past week, local authorities said.

"We are making necessary preparations to be ready in case we decide on a cross-border operations since we don't have patience to lose more time," Erdogan said, adding that Turkey lost 30 people in rebel attacks over the past two weeks.

- snip -

The Turkish parliament was expected to approve a government request to authorize an Iraq campaign as early as next week, after a holiday ending the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. But that does not mean a risky incursion will follow at once. Turkey might give diplomacy, and perhaps economic pressure, more time to work even as public enthusiasm for a military mission mounts.

Read more: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hHDG79AIius7McB6xz3lTQFLIdhQD8S7JBFO1

[tekisui]

1. What would the most likely consequences be?

Would a fight with the Kurds draw Syria and/or Iran into battle with them as well? Would the US defend Northern Iraq and fight Turkey? What is the most likely scenario?

[Andy Canuck]

2. Shockingly, I believe, since Northern Iraq is the only "stable"

part of the country, US forces would have to protect the Kurds. I think there will be negotiations first as the US and Turkey are NATO partners, but this is a new Turkish government with strong Islamist leanings. Iran and Syria won't get involved, they would rather watch the US get embroiled with an ally on a new front in the war and watch the US deplete it's limited resources. Why fight when someone else will do it for you? The real concern is that if Turkey and the US start to fight one another is how to protect US assets in Turkey? If Turkey over runs bases inside of Turkey, how is the US to respond?

I hope diplomacy works.

[ohio2007]

13. Turkey may chase them into Iran, the Kurds old homeland

I doubt Syria would move troops to the Iraqi border but they have attacked and opressed their own Kurd population in the past, I doubt the Kurds would run that way for shelter. They are more active along the Iranian/Turkish borders.

Most likely scenario?

Wait and see what they decide to do in parliment. I doubt they will want to have the oil stop flowing into the Turkish economy. That would upset those Turks that are flourishing with northern Iraqi trade.
Or, they can occupy what "they break" in Iraq.


Right through the Sunni triangle into the northern burbs of Baghdad.
Is this what parliment wants ?
remember:
If you break it, you own it "
isn't only for hyper powers.

[necso]

3. It seems pointless to counsel patience,

when patience has been unavailing for so long.

So I'll be frank (as between friends).

I think that direct military (ground) action now will prove to be ineffective, disproportionately costly and even counterproductive.

And with American "leadership" being so unwise, shortsighted, prideful, delusional, etc, it's incumbent on our friends/allies (indeed, the world at large) to be all the more wise (etc) to counter the effects of this folly.

...

(While I'm being frank.)

It's just about the last possible moment to act with much chance of success. So do one of the two things Sherman's famous for.

Anything else aids the buyers'-remorse express.

[Mudoria]

4. I imagine the Kurds would send the Turkish

troops back home with their tails between their legs. The Kurds are pretty battle hardened after years of fighting Saddam and his thugs.

[Orrin_73]

7. I have my doubts about that

The Turkish army is fighting rebels in the rugged area in south eastern Turkey for more then 25 years now. The area is not that different from northern iraq. A Turkish invasion in northern iraq would mean the collapse of the regional kurdish government and al qaeda will be more then willing to take the reigns in the area.
The reason why the iraqis were unable to topple the kurds was that the kurds got help from the americans and iranians, now they are on their own.

[denidem]

10. Turkey also helped the Kurds in Iraq for many years...

Turkey took in a million Kurdish refugees during Gulf War I and most of the refugees comining into the US now are coming out of Turkey. They policed the no-fly zone in Northern Iraq until the 2003 invasion, preventing retaliation from Hussain (that didn't happen in the south and many Shia paid the price). Turkish business has been instrumental in the financial stability of the majority Kurdish areas. Remember too, that there are other ethnic groups, namely Turkmen and non-moslem Kurds (Izidis???) living in the same area. This is a very complicated situation and unfortunately most Americans don't get the whole story.

[ohio2007]

14. fighting for 25 years and still can't claim home field advantage in Turkey

The Kurds are very "clanish".
they are living in more then Syria,Iraq,Iran and a few of the ex Soviet 'stans'.

They going to roll over like you think?

Think again.
Turkey can't handle their own locals.
Proxy support may flow towards the rebels cause.


...Maybe not eh?

[Orrin_73]

15. If there was a real kurdish uprising in Turkey where there are

some 8 million in Turkey, it would be a bloodshed. Only some 15% of the kurds support the pkk in Turkey, the vast majority of the kurds dont they are loyal to their government. There are many turkomans in northern iraq they would join the Turkish army in in hunting the rebels plus many arabs that are digruntled with the kurdish government would help too. The kurds in northern iraq are very disadvantaged they are no match against an organized army, there only contact with the outside world is from the north. Turkey can close the border anytime.

[Trajan]

9. I have heard similar boasts about Kurdish military prowess ....

But I would have to ask you : Where was that prowess when the weak Stalinist Hussein regime was in place ? .....

We know Saddam was no more than a paper tiger .... Yet the Kurds did NOT break out .... If they are so tough, why did they allow themselves to be humiliated for so long ?

The Turks are FAR stronger than Saddam was (in 2003) .... It is folly to pretend the Kurds could repel a Turkish invasion ....

But OHHhhh my: What has Dick'N'George wrought ? ..... another stategic boner ?


Ah yes: They couldn't have seen THIS coming ... right ? ....

:sarcasm:

[damntexdem]

5. With that headline, this could be a story about Dubya.

But I suppose not: Dubya wouldn't ponder anything.

[RexDart]

6. Here's how I see it play out.

1. Turkey rolls over the border and smashes a few towns.

2. The PKK is smart enough to have bugged out before this.

3. Turkey does a number to the civilians, not like they did to the Armenians, but bad enough.

4. The US makes a half hearted protest, but does nothing. Gods forbid that we do or say anything to upset Turkey.

5. After a while, Turkey declares that it's balls are big enough, and that it has taught those Kurds a lesson they'll never forget. It then crosses back into Turkey.

6. The PKK comes back out of what ever holes they were hiding in and starts the whole process over again.

7. Iraq is in flames from one end to the other.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

[fujiyama]

8. Sounds about right.

In the end, the innocent will get killed in a conflict of egos - backed of course by US arms.

[tom_paine]

11. C'mon Turkey, let's get this Grand Chessboard on the ROAD

You can do it.

[seemslikeadream]

12. Iraq is not good enough for Pelosi

she wants to mix it up with Turkey now