STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday October 16

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday October 16, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 462 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2469 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2187 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2148
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 15, 2007

Dow... 13,984.80 -108.28 (-0.77%)
Nasdaq... 2,780.05 -25.63 (-0.91%)
S&P 500... 1,548.71 -13.09 (-0.84%)
Gold future... 762.20 +8.40 (+1.10%)
30-Year Bond 4.91% +0.00 (+0.04%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.67% -0.01 (-0.30%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

The Boomers are Coming, The Boomers are Coming
Demographic Tsunami is at the Gate
BY TONY ALLISON

The leading edge of the massive hoard known as the Baby Boomers is finally at the gate, ready to begin collecting Social Security. A recent article profiled the “first Baby Boomer,” Kathleen Casey-Kirschling, born one second after midnight, January 1st, 1946. She will begin to collect Social Security in January 2008, and will be eligible for Medicare in three years. She will also be joined by 3,200,000 other Boomers who will begin drawing Social Security next year. And over the next 20 years, the gates to government-sponsored retirement benefits will be deluged by over 80 million aging Boomers.

-cut-

Demographers and economists are concerned that Social Security and Medicare payments will eventually swamp the economy. The conservative number now tossed around is $50 trillion in unfunded future liabilities. This is probably significantly understated, as inflation expectations are understated. The Concord Coalition has forecast cash deficits of $72 trillion for Medicare and Social Security by 2080. There have been projections that Social Security will rise from 4% to 6% of GDP and Medicare will rise from 3% to 11% of GDP in the later part of this century. But of course these are just estimates, based on premises, such as rates of inflation which could change dramatically. It’s safe to say the problem is immense and growing.

-cut-

Because the brewing crisis is not yet at our doorstep, the politicians and mainstream media will likely ignore it until it’s inside our houses, maiming and pillaging. Mr. Walker frames the issue in a much longer, historic perspective.

“The Roman Empire lasted 1000 years, but only about half that time as a Republic. The Roman Republic fell for many reasons, but three reasons are worth remembering: declining moral and political civility at home, an overconfident and overextended military in foreign lands, and fiscal irresponsibility by the central government.”

It’s fortunate that the comptroller general serves a 15-year term (Walker has served six), because he would likely be shown the door very quickly otherwise. As Walker has stated many times, “the American people are starved for two things; truth and leadership.”

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[fasttense]

10. When the Baby Boomers became the 1st generation to pay for both

their parent's and their own SS, no one complained.

Raygun doubled the Social Security tax, he started the Social Security trust fund. Half the Baby Boomer's Social Security tax went to paying for their parents' retirement, the other half was suppose to go into a trust fund so the money would be there for the Baby Boomer's retirement. Instead, Raygun and Greenspan used the trust fund as their private piggy bank and borrowed it all, no one complained. Every president, with the help of Greenspan, continued to borrow it, no one complained. It could have been collecting interest instead it was borrowed to fund the government, no one complained. The Baby Boomer's paid for their Social Security twice, no one complained.

Now everyone is complaining the money isn't there. Where did our money go?

[mbperrin]

16. This cannot be said often enough. WE HAVE PAID!

No boomer is looking for a free ride. We have paid, and we have paid twice already. Redeem those government bonds and get to paying! 80 million or so boomers, EACH AND EVERY ONE ELIGIBLE TO VOTE.

Please do not let these thieves carry off OUR retirement!

[KayLaw]

24. We're still paying.

At least we are. My husband and I have been paying since the 1970s and will continue paying for at least another 15 years. If we could have back what we paid as well as stop paying now, we wouldn't need SS benefits. I'm not suggesting this is the way to go, just pointing out that there's nothing free about this ride.

[AnneD]

25. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. I so remember getting into an argument with an elderly neighbor of mine (I was in my late 20's) when they did the Social Security reform. I argued, not that they raised the tax, not that they raised the retirement age, but that the money was not put in a dedicated fund (a lock box so to speak). I knew that as soon as they got the money, Reagen would give a tax cut to his cronies or the money would be pissed away in some form or fashion. My neighbour insisted that the money go to the general fund because the government paid for it all anyway. I didn't envision George Bush per say-I just didn't and still don't trust politicians.

I never wanted to be a 'burden' to my kids and never objected to pulling my weight. At a young age, I saw first hand the benefit that this provided both to my poor grandparent and my nephew and widowed sister. They (GOP Presidents and legislators) have done everything in their powers to begin excluding folks entirely from the system. This exclusion combined with pension fraud, 401k and 403b mismanagement, and out right fraud by WS corporation's spell a disaster of major proportions brewing if laws are not implemented, tightened, and enforced.

:rant: and nothing chaps my ass more than to listen to these corrupt politicians and self absorbed gen x bitch about Social Security 'entitlement' programs. Hell yes, we are 'entitle' to it, we paid money for not only our parents but extra to be set aside for ourselves. And I'll be damned if they cheat us out of it at this late stage of the game.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Warpy]

30. Our money was robbed to fudge the books

so that the true cost of the tax giveaway to the rich and corporate wouldn't be known until after Reagan and Greenspan and most of their beneficiaries had died in comfort.

A full 40% of OASDI payments are still being robbed, used in the general fund along with income taxes. Reagan's tax hikes have always been a back door income tax hike on the poorest workers, a shameful thing that Congress has been perfectly happy to do.

Resist any Social Security "fix" that doesn't first take Social Security out of the sweaty palms of Congress. Nothing else will ever have an effect. Gore knew that and that's why they all attacked him over it and why he'd have been kept out of office by any means at their disposal.

Remember, Social Security has always been a classic insurance program, pay as you go. The only "crisis" when the boomers retire will be that Congress will no longer be able to rob it to pay their fat cat campaign contributors off.

[DemReadingDU]

31. Isn't Social Security a program

that workers pay into, not for themselves, but for the oldsters. So yeh, the booomers are paying for their parents, but the Gen X's & Gen Y's are supposed to be paying for the boomers.

[bain_sidhe]

35. Originally, it was

but since the 1980s, baby boomers have been paying extra into a "trust fund" for their own retirment. IOW, they paid enough to fund their parents retirement, PLUS extra to set aside to help pay for their own. However, once the "trust fund" was established, Reagan began "borrowing" the money in it, leaving a pile of IOUs instead of the money. Every president since then, including Clinton, continued "borrowing" our money. Now the baby boomers are calling in the "loans," and Bush is trying to reneg on paying them back.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases Aug
Briefing Forecast -
Market Expects -
Prior $19.2b

9:15 AM Industrial Production Sep
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.1%
Prior 0.2%

9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Sep
Briefing Forecast 82.2%
Market Expects 82.1%
Prior 82.2%

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise to new intraday record

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose to new intraday highs in Asia Tuesday on fears Turkey will pursue Kurdish rebels into Iraq and disrupt oil supplies in the region.

A weakening U.S. dollar, low U.S. crude inventories and increased buying by investment funds also supported prices, analysts said.

The Turkish government's decision Monday to ask Parliament for permission to pursue Kurdish rebels into Iraq stoked the worries about disrupted oil supplies.

-cut-

Light, sweet crude for November delivery rose 51 cent to $86.64 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. It rose as much as 66 cents in the electronic session to a fresh trading high of $86.79 a barrel.

The contract jumped $2.44 to settle at a record close of $86.13 a barrel Monday.

"$86 is a historically high level... Many people are looking at this level for the first time so it's very difficult to say what will happen next," said Tetsu Emori, commodity markets fund manager at ASTMAX Futures Co. in Tokyo. "All the factors in the market are bullish, there are no bearish factors except maybe that the market looks like it's been overbought, technically."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Roland99]

8. NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures hit $87.80/bbl.

[Ghost Dog]

15. Oil prices smash records; New York crude nears 88 dollars

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071016/bs_afp/commoditiesenergyoilprice_071016112614;_ylt=AoqLuFgCCMW4n1IA584XKBKmOrgF

LONDON (AFP) - World oil prices hurtled to fresh record highs on Tuesday, striking close to 88 dollars per barrel in New York amid fears over tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in crude producer Iraq.

New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November, surged to an historic 87.97 dollars per barrel in late morning deals.

London's Brent North Sea crude for November delivery soared to a fresh all-time high of 84.31 dollars per barrel.

Prices also jumped on worries over stretched global energy supplies, particularly during the forthcoming northern hemisphere winter, when demand for heating fuel hits a peak.

Traders were also spooked after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday cut its fourth-quarter non-OPEC production outlook by 110,000 barrels per day.

"The tensions in Turkey are the main driver here," said Nas Nijjar, a trader at CMC Markets. "Now we have potential (supply) problems on top of that going into the winter."

/...

[Ghost Dog]

17. As dollar sours and oil soars, investors turn to gold

As publicised by Bloomberg and the NYT's International Herald Tribune:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/15/bloomberg/bxcom.php
As dollar sours and oil soars, investors turn to gold
By Pham-Duy Nguyen Bloomberg News

SEATTLE: Gold soars as oil climbs and dollar falls

Gold rose to the highest level since 1980 on Monday as a weakening dollar and record high energy costs increased the appeal of the metal as a hedge against inflation. Silver also gained.

Crude oil futures rose to a record as tensions mounted between Turkey and Iraq, which holds substantial oil reserves. Some investors buy gold when energy costs climb to hedge against accelerating prices. The metal reached a record in January 1980 after oil doubled in a year.

"Oil is at a record high and in the face of a slumping dollar, you've got a recipe for gold to shoot higher," said Matt Zeman, metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $10.42 to $764.00 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal earlier reached $765.40, the highest point for a most-active contract since 1980.

Silver futures for December delivery rose 14.7 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $14.05 an ounce. Before Monday, the metal had gained 7.5 percent this year.

Gold is up 20 percent this year, heading for the seventh-straight annual gain, as the dollar dropped against the euro and crude oil reached a record. Five of the past six bear markets in the dollar have resulted in a higher gold price.

/...

[ozymandius]

4. Bernanke: Housing woes to slow growth

WASHINGTON - A deepening housing slump probably will be a "significant drag" on economic growth into next year and it will take time for Wall Street to fully recover from a painful credit crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Monday.

Bernanke once again pledged to "act as needed" to help financial markets — which have suffered through several months of turbulence — function smoothly and to keep the economy and inflation on an even keel.

"Conditions in financial markets have shown some improvement since the worst of the storm in mid-August, but a full recovery of market functioning is likely to take time, and we may well see some setbacks," Bernanke said in a speech to the New York Economic Club. A copy of his remarks was made available in Washington.

It was Bernanke's most extensive assessment of the country's current economic situation since the August turmoil unhinged Wall Street.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071016/ap_on_bi_ge/bernanke

[ozymandius]

5. S&P sees Fed cutting U.S. rates in Dec or Jan

SEOUL (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will probably cut U.S. interest rates again over the next few months and Asian central banks have room to do so once their exports lose steam, Standard & Poor's economists said on Tuesday.

Asian countries have sharply increased trading inside the region and would weather to some extent the slowing U.S. economy, or if necessary they will be able to lower interest rates to boost domestic demand, they told reporters in Seoul.

-cut-

He said Asia -- home to the world's two fastest-growing economies of China and India -- would probably post about 7 percent growth in 2008, although a U.S. recession would chop 1 percentage point off the forecast.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071016/bs_nm/korea_economy_sp_dc_1

[Demeter]

22. It Will Be Before Xmas

in hopes that the crazed consumers will save retailers from bankruptcy. Especially Walmart.

[Roland99]

32. Flashback to just two years ago (almost exactly) ... Chopper Ben then, no bubble to burst.

Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust
Fed Nominee Has Said 'Cooling' Won't Hurt
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR2005102602255.html



dumbass.

[AnneD]

42. And our theme song is.....

Etta James singing "What a Difference a Day Makes"

What a difference a day makes
Twenty four little hours
Brought the sun and the flowers
Where there used to be rain

My yesterday was blue, dear
Today I'm part of you, dear
My lonely nights are through, dear
Since you said you are mine

What a difference a day makes
There's a rainbow before me
Skies above can't be stormy
Since that moment of bliss, that thrilling kiss

It's heaven when you
Find romance on your menu
What a difference a day makes
And the difference is you

<snip>

That ought to cheer Ben up:evilgrin:

[Roland99]

43. And Stormy Weather is ahead!

[AnneD]

47. And after the November elections we'll be singing...

At Last......:evilgrin:

[Roland99]

50. Salut!

[ozymandius]

6. ConAgra asks stores to quit selling pies

OMAHA, Neb. - ConAgra Foods Inc. has asked stores to stop selling pot pies linked to a salmonella outbreak and is offering refunds for the turkey and chicken-filled meals.

The company and the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Wednesday defended their decision not to immediately recall the product.

ConAgra asked stores nationwide to pull the Banquet and generic brand chicken and turkey pot pies after two East Coast grocery chains made their own choice to remove the product from their shelves.

The pot pies made by ConAgra have been linked to at least 152 cases of salmonella in 31 states. The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said at least 20 people have been hospitalized as part of the ongoing outbreak, but so far no deaths have been linked to the pot pies.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071011/ap_on_bi_ge/pot_pie_problem

[ozymandius]

7. Junk mortgages under the microscope (opinion/analysis)

(Fortune Magazine) -- It's getting hard to wrap your brain around subprime mortgages, Wall Street's fancy name for junk home loans. There's so much subprime stuff floating around - more than $1.5 trillion of loans, maybe $200 billion of losses, thousands of families facing foreclosure, umpteen politicians yapping - that it's like the federal budget: It's just too big to be understandable.

So let's reduce this macro story to human scale. Meet GSAMP Trust 2006-S3, a $494 million drop in the junk-mortgage bucket, part of the more than half-a-trillion dollars of mortgage-backed securities issued last year. We found this issue by asking mortgage mavens to pick the worst deal they knew of that had been floated by a top-tier firm - and this one's pretty bad.

It was sold by Goldman Sachs (Charts, Fortune 500) - GSAMP originally stood for Goldman Sachs Alternative Mortgage Products but now has become a name itself, like AT&T and 3M.

-cut-

Alas, almost everyone involved in this duck-feeding deal has had a foul experience. Less than 18 months after the issue was floated, a sixth of the borrowers had already defaulted on their loans. Investors who paid face value for these securities - they were looking for slightly more interest than they'd get on equivalent bonds - have suffered heavy losses.

...and it just gets worse - even for the Big Boys...

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/15/markets/junk_mortgages.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007101605

[ozymandius]

9. UPDATE: China Citic Bank Bidding For Bear Stearns Stake

BEIJING -(Dow Jones)- China Citic Bank Corp. (0998.HK), the banking unit of financial conglomerate China Citic Group, is participating in the bidding for a stake in Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC), China Banking Regulatory Commission Vice Chairman Jiang Dingzhi said Tuesday.

Jiang was speaking during a session at the Communist Party Congress and didn't offer further details.

Separately, Citic Group Vice Chairman Chang Zhenming said there hasn't been any "material progress" in Citic Bank's participation in the Bear Stearns bid.

Officials at Bear Stearns weren't immediately available for comment.

Jiang and Chang's comments were the first confirmation by Chinese government officials that Citic Bank is seeking a minority stake in the sixth-largest U.S. securities firm, which was hit hard by the recent turmoil in credit markets.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200710160052DOWJONESDJONLINE000033_FORTUNE5.htm

[RawMaterials]

26. O man I never though of this but what if

The Central bank fails to artificially keep interest rates low, bye using inflation because china buys up
a bunch of big banks and starts to screw with interest rates? :tinfoilhat:

[Demeter]

45. You Know, I Was Really Planning On Sleeping Tonight Until You Posted That Scenario

Aren't there laws about buying US banks, or rather, not buying?

[RawMaterials]

52. I dont think so and all the treasury bills are going to have to be

invested somewhere, After the Olympics It could be a financial war. Esp if the Chinese stock market crashes.

[ozymandius]

11. Good morning.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Folks - it looks really spooky as we approach the open. Have fun while watching the huge banks run for cover.

Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

21. good morning Ozy and all

sorry for my absence - yesterday the internet tubes were broken - both at home and work - and then I was off chasing deadlines and today will be worse - but wanted to drop in and do the buck thing and say :hi:

[JNelson6563]

23. Hi Bunky!

No worries on the money thing. We can just fire up the presses and Voila! Problem solved! :toast:

Thanks for kicking things off, as usual! Glad to see so many Marketeers keeping things going too.

I'll be checking in as I can, I'll be busy sewing gems into my clothing. ;-)

Julie

[Ghost Dog]

12. Tokyo shares tumble on US worries

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20071016/bs_ft/fto101620070501458620;_ylt=AgZRFQG8WF5tVEbTEnUWRWr2ULEF

The Tokyo market tumbled on fears that the worst of the US subprime problem was not yet over, taking the benchmark Nikkei average down 1.3 per cent to 17,137.92.

Investors were unnerved after overnight falls in the US. The Topix index of all issues on the first section of the Tokyo market sank 1.9 per cent to 1,625.25.

Citigroup (NYSE:C)'s negative assessment of its outlook and concerns about US earnings and their impact on the global economy added to the market's nervousness. Comments by Citigroup that US consumer credit would likely weaken on increasing mortgage delinquencies underlined continuing problems in the credit sector.

News of Nomura Securities' subprime losses also dampened spirits. Japan's largest broker said on Monday its losses related to the US subprime mortgage market had totalled Y145.6bn over the past three quarters.

The news, which came as market concern about the subprime issue was beginning to ease, highlighted the depth of the problem and suggested there could be further revelations of damage to Japanese financial institutions.

Financial institutions were broadly sold off with Nomura Holdings (NYSE:NMR) declining by 0.5 per cent to Y2,070 after losing more than 1 per cent during the day.

Mitsubishi UFJ was the most heavily traded issue and plunged 6 per cent to Y1,059.

The other mega banks, Mizuho and Sumitomo Mitsui, each also lost over 5 per cent. Mizuho dropped to Y631,000 while SMFG declined to Y874,000.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

13. Asian Stocks Decline on U.S. Home Loan Concern; Banks Slide

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a_5hEbGm4it4&refer=asia

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks dropped the most in four weeks after losses reported by Nomura Holdings Inc. and Citigroup Inc. renewed concern a U.S. housing slowdown will stunt earnings growth at financial companies.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. posted its biggest decline since May last year and National Australia Bank Ltd. slipped to a one-week low. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday the housing slump will be a ``significant drag'' on U.S. growth into next year.

``Nomura's announcement of additional losses due to subprime securities shows this is not just limited to the U.S.,'' said Terunobu Kinoshita, who helps manage $785 million at Fund Creation Co. in Tokyo.

HSBC Holdings Plc led Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index down from a record. J. Front Retailing Co., Japan's largest department-store operator, retreated the most since listing on Sept. 3 after reporting operating profit that missed its forecast.

The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index fell 1.3 percent to 166.62 at 6:12 p.m. in Tokyo, the most since Sept. 18. Shares tied to the finance industry contributed the most to the drop.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 1.3 percent, while the broader Topix index dropped 1.9 percent. All markets fell except Taiwan, China and Sri Lanka. Indonesia was closed for a holiday.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

14. Ericsson plunge takes Europe stocks down 1 percent

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=eurMktRpt&storyID=2007-10-16T093733Z_01_L16232225_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-EUROPE-STOCKS-UPDATE-1.XML&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=InvArt-C1-ArticlePage3

Not only: ...

LONDON, Oct 16 (Reuters) - European stocks fell 1 percent early on Tuesday, as a profit warning by telecoms equipment group Ericsson (ERICb.ST: Quote, Profile , Research) sent its shares tumbling and rattled investors already grappling with renewed credit worries.

At 0845 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> was down 0.96 percent at 1,571.62, adding to its fall in the previous session, when it suffered its biggest daily loss in three weeks.

Technology stocks were among the worst performers, as Ericsson fell more than 25 percent after it said it saw third-quarter earnings below market expectations and its own forecasts due to "an unexpected shift in the business mix".

... But also: ...

"The market realises that we're not going to fix the mess in the U.S. subprime market in just one quarter," said Jean-Francois Virolle, chief strategist at Global Equities, in Paris.

FINANCIAL WOES

Banks were the worst performers, with RBS (RBS.L: Quote, Profile , Research) down 2.5 percent, Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile , Research) losing 3.2 percent and BNP Paribas <BNPP.PA.> shedding 1.4 percent.

Lloyds TSB (LLOY.L: Quote, Profile , Research) also lost 2.5 percent after U.S. prosecutors filed civil money-laundering charges against the bank and the Bank of Cyprus, (BOC.CY: Quote, Profile , Research), alleging both banks helped launder hundreds of million of dollars generated from an alleged securities fraud.

Banks also did not seem to take solace from U.S. Federal Reserve comments overnight. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said U.S. financial markets are healthier after a turbulent summer, but a full recovery would take time and the Fed would act as needed to support market stability as well as noninflationary growth.

And inflation was at the back of investors' minds with the oil price hitting its third consecutive record high near $87 a barrel. High crude prices are seen as a double-edged sword for stocks because they spur inflation on the one hand but benefit heavyweight energy companies on the other.

BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile , Research) was up 0.6 percent, Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile , Research) gained 1.2 percent, and Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile , Research) rose 0.9 percent. Continued...

/...

[Ghost Dog]

18. Dollar up against euro on German inflation

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/16/markets/bc.apfn.dollar.ap/index.htm?section=money_news_international

BERLIN (AP) -- The dollar gained against the euro Tuesday as Germany reported that consumer price inflation hit its highest point in two years.

The 13-nation euro bought $1.4167 in morning European trading, down from $1.4200 in New York the previous night and the $1.4243 it reached earlier in Monday's session.

The British pound dropped to $2.0350 from $2.0424, while the dollar fell to ¥116.79 from ¥117.21.

The dollar has been under pressure from concerns over the health of the U.S. economy, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates again. The European Central Bank, however, has kept open the possibility of raising its rates, and the euro reached an all-time high of $1.4282 on Oct. 1.

Still, comments overnight by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet "underlined the fact that the ECB seems likely to leave rates unchanged at 4 percent next month too," said James Hughes, a market analyst at CMC Markets.

On Tuesday, Germany - the euro zone's biggest economy - reported that consumer price inflation reached 2.4 percent in September. That was down from an initial estimate of 2.5 percent, but still the highest level in two years.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

19. Stocks are poised for another retreat

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071016/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street;_ylt=AqxgIoVJBUoDv5tzKhEkm8WyBhIF

NEW YORK - Wall Street appeared headed for another tough session Tuesday, as stock futures retreated on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that housing remains a drag on the economy.

Bernanke's comments late Monday during a speech at the New York Economic Club revived concerns that a recovery from the summer's credit crisis might take longer than expected. Investors also remain concerned about third-quarter earnings and rising energy costs.

Stocks had their biggest retreat in more than five weeks Monday after a consortium of banks led by Citigroup Inc. set up a fund to help bail out the credit markets. The nation's largest financial institution also reported a 57 percent decline in profit earlier in the day.

Investors might get a broader glimpse about how tightening credit markets and subprime mortgage woes affected several big regional banks. KeyCorp said before the open that profit fell 33 percent because of credit market volatility; while Wells Fargo & Co. is among other banks still scheduled to report.

Also putting pressure on stocks was a warning from Sweden's Ericsson that third-quarter operating profit will plunge 36 percent and margins would shrink sharply. The handset maker blamed the weak results on lower demand for mobile network upgrades.

Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 51, or 0.33 percent, to 14,015. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures fell 6.20, or 0.40 percent, to 1,553.80. Nasdaq 100 index futures fell 11.75, or 0.54 percent, to 2,169.00.

/...

[UpInArms]

20. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.267 Change +0.165 (+0.21%)

Black Monday Haunts the Currency Market

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Black_Monday_Haunts_the_Currency_1192485602789.html

On the twentieth anniversary of Black Monday, everyone has drawn comparisons between the 1987 crash and present market conditions. The conclusions drawn by most are that conditions are worse now than they were 20 years ago. Although we think that the comparison is not entirely accurate because many factors have changed over the past two decades, it is always interesting to do our own retrospective of how currencies traded in October 1987. Twenty years ago, the stock market suffered its largest one day percentage decline of 22.6 percent. During that month, the US dollar fell close to 1000 pips against Japanese Yen, 1000 pips against the British pound, 600 pips against the Australian dollar and 400 pips against the Euro. Even though carry trades and high yielding currencies were not as popular then as they are now, we can still see that the drop in the Dow led to a rise in risk aversion and a massive exodus out of US dollars. Although Black Monday could be haunting the financial markets once again, today’s rise in risk aversion and sell-off in stocks have been triggered by weak earnings from Citigroup, a sharp rise in oil prices and news that the nation’s three largest banks will be creating a rescue fund to help bail out the troubled global credit markets. With inflationary pressures on the rise and credit markets continuing to find stability, it will be very difficult for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again this month. Expectations for a rate cut remain at 32 percent, which is unchanged from Friday. This indicates that today’s move is mainly due to concern about earnings rather than concerns about inflation. The Empire State manufacturing survey was much stronger than expected this month thanks to the weakness of the US dollar. Fed Chairman Bernanke is speaking on the economic outlook this evening, so watch out for any market moving comments. Tomorrow we have the Treasury International Capital flow report, industrial production, and the NAHB housing market index. It will not be a surprise if the housing market is weak and industrial production is stronger, but foreign inflows could suffer as a result of the credit crunch in August.

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Euro and British Pound: Will They Continue to Rise Against the US Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Euro__British_Pound__Swiss_Franc__1192483980857.html

The US dollar continues to remain very weak against the Euro, British pound and Swiss Franc. We have released our fourth quarter outlooks for these currencies. The main questions ahead of us is whether the EUR/USD will make it to 1.50, what is at stake for the Bank of England and what this means for the British pound as well as whether the Swiss franc will stop falling against the Euro.

...more...

[AnneD]

27. Hillary Clinton won't be at energy forum

WASHINGTON — News that a presidential candidates' forum on energy would be televised live from Houston next month lost some luster Monday when Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign said the Democratic frontrunner won't attend.

NBC and the Greater Houston Partnership announced that NBC News Washington bureau chief Tim Russert will moderate a Nov. 13 energy and environment forum at the George R. Brown Convention Center.

The MSNBC cable network will broadcast portions of the forum live, NBC said.

Candidates will be asked their views on topics ranging from oil and gas drilling and nuclear power to global warming.

David Willett, national press secretary for the Sierra Club, said at least two major candidates have committed to participate. The Sierra Club Foundation is working with the Partnership in organizing the event.

<big snip>

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5216966.html

I know these things are a bit tiresome-but I have been watching them and getting a feel for the candidates. I would hate for candidates not show-especially since the standard bearer might be chosen before WE even get to the primaries.

[AnneD]

28. Gathering takes on state of supply

The state of the world's oil resources will take center stage at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil's four-day conference in Houston this week.

Speeches, round-table discussions and question-and-answer sessions will dominate the gathering at the downtown Hilton Hotel. Speakers will include Texas oilman and private equity firm head T. Boone Pickens; Matthew Simmons, CEO of Simmons & Company International; and U.S. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md., co-chairman of the Congressional Peak Oil Caucus.

Peak oil theorists say a peak and subsequent drop-off in worldwide oil production is imminent or is ongoing. That belief stands in contrast to oil companies and other industry analysts who say peak oil theorists discount unconventional oil sources, such as Canada's oil-soaked sands and untapped resources yet to be found.

The conference will begin Wednesday.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5216947.html

This is the entire article but what I wouldn't give to be a fly on the wall.:tinfoilhat:

[AnneD]

29. Banks band together to create rescue fund

NEW YORK — The nation's three largest banks said Monday they are teaming up to create a rescue fund of sorts to help bail out troubled global credit markets.

Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., at the prodding of the Treasury Department, will buy distressed debt from markets roiled during the summer's financial crisis. The joint effort is the result of more than a month of talks mediated by the government.

The plan is designed to inject more confidence into the market and increase investor appetite for the short-term debt known as commercial paper. The market for commercial paper, which is crucial for companies to fund short-term borrowing needs and which has historically been considered very safe, locked up this summer.

That followed a crisis in the mortgage industry, as people defaulted on their home loans at a skyrocketing rate. It caused a widespread aversion to risk and led the Federal Reserve to pump money into the financial system, though the latest plan relies more heavily on the banks.

<snip>

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5216976.html

[antigop]

33. State Street earnings up 29%: CEO says it withstood crunch

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/state-street-earnings-up-29/story.aspx?guid=%7B8DBB4145%2D5198%2D43E4%2DB682%2D3FAE2252FF7B%7D&siteid=yhoof

>>

State Street Corp. before Tuesday's opening bell reported its third-quarter profit rose 29% from a year earlier and the company's chief executive said the financial giant has withstood the turmoil in credit markets.

(STT 73.95, +5.02, +7.3%) said its quarterly earnings rose to $358 million, or 91 cents a share, from $278 million, or 83 cents the prior year.
>>

[AnneD]

34. Life is harder now, some experts say

Shopping malls are packed every weekend. Restaurants can't open fast enough. Everyone seems to be wearing designer shoes, jackets and jeans and sipping $4 lattes. Credit card commercials constantly advocate splurging and, it seems, U.S. consumers are all too ready to comply.

So what's the problem? Why do so many middle class Americans with so much stuff say they feel so squeezed? If they are dogged by debt, isn’t it their own fault?

Perhaps, some experts say, things are not as they appear.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21309318/

This is an intriguing article with a poll also. Definantly a Main Street article with some scary observations.

[Hugin]

36. I submit, one doesn't have to be an expert to see it...

:eyes:

:hangover: Morning AnneD! :hi:

[AnneD]

39. Morning Prag....

It actually works better if you aren't an expert. The eCONomists have been wrong, surprised, or have blamed the weather as of late :eyes:

We are in the trenches and we see the war first hand. The eCONomist are the 5 star generals in the Pentagon, clueless to the need for protective armour.

[mainegreen]

37. In what universe is a mortgage $10,250/yr?

Outside of, say, North Dakota?
The daycare numbers are lower than reality as well.
And the health insurance numbers? Laughable.

[AnneD]

40. I thought those numbers were a laugh when I read them....

I know I am in a large city, and we are expensive-but I figure their numbers on most were well off. The note would be $854 a month and we haven't seen that in years here. I don't know if that includes property taxes or not and insurance or not. No wonder these guys are clueless.

[Warpy]

44. My PITI was $540/month

in a reasonably large city in NM. I bought a fixer in what was then a slum but is now on its way up as other people have bought into this area and started fixing the post WWII houses up.

I bought as a hedge against rising rents. Apartment rents where I wouldn't get killed passed my PITI within two years. House rents were always much higher. The lot rental where I had my trailer was on its way up, too. I bought in this area because it's centrally located and convenient to most of the amenities in this city. I can walk to shopping and there is bus service.

I think it's still possible to get modest housing that will be a hedge against rising rents if one is in an area that escaped the bubble, which means outisde the big cities on both coasts.

[AnneD]

48. Our problem here

is finding modest decent housing. The things that are priced modestly are in such a dangerous area, you lose any cost benefit via insurance and household article replacement. Been there done that. :scared:

[Dancing_Dave]

38. FOOD is a "DISCRETIONARY ITEM"???

What planet did the author of this hogwash come from? Or maybe, I should just ask, what income bracket?

Or was it written by some corporate media authoring robot that doesn't need to eat? That would explain it!

Indeed "Things are not as they appear". They got that much right!

But corporate media sources are so used to concentrating on appearance and distracting us from reality, they are just way out of their element when they try to cross over to the other side and do one article concerning reality for a change.

[AnneD]

41. I guess it is discretionary...

to the point of wither you get Kellogg's Frosted Flakes or the Malt o Meal big bag or the generic. Of course you always can feed you kids oatmeal 3 times a day. It's nutritious and keep them alive but that's not saying much.

These folks really need to spend some time at a food bank and get an idea of how bad it is.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

49. Live vote (114537 responses)

Do you think you're better off than your middle-class counterparts in the early-1970s? *

Yes. I have a house full of gadgets they could only dream of. 17%

About the same. I spend less on some things and more on others. 22%

Not even close. I'm busting my hump and barely hanging on. 62%

[AnneD]

51. WOW...

just WOW.:wow:

[ozymandius]

46. In an understandable universe we would be smashing records through the lower floor.

The news is so bad, disappointment has become rampant. Even Goldman Sachs cannot publish profits without "j'accuse" screamed about cooking the books (with reason).

Instead we get this:
Dow 13,912.94 Down 71.86 (0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,763.91 Down 16.14 (0.58%)
S&P 500 1,538.53 Down 10.18 (0.66%)
10-Yr Bond 4.655% Down 0.018
NYSE Volume 3,234,563,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,138,887,000

4:20 pm : It was a bit of deja vu on Tuesday as rising oil prices and a weak financial sector (-1.9%) combined to knock the stock market for another loss. The difference from Monday was that the losses weren't as severe.

The latter point notwithstanding, the bulls didn't have a lot to cheer about on Tuesday. Oil prices topped $88 per barrel at their highs for the day before closing at $87.61 (+1.7%). Concerns about Turkey invading northern Iraq to strike the Kurds fueled the uptick in oil prices.

Once again, the surge in prices enabled the energy sector (+0.3%) to outperform. It didn't have any company on the winning side of things, though, as the remaining economic sectors finished with a loss.

Like Monday, the most influential drag was the financial sector, which was sent reeling following disappointing earnings reports from the likes of Wells Fargo (WFC 34.55, -1.40), KeyCorp (KEY 30.44, -1.91) and Regions Financial (RF 28.53, -0.60) that were accented with rising credit losses. Asset manager State Street (STT 74.68, +5.75) bucked the trend after easily surpassing analysts' consensus estimate for the third quarter, but its strength wasn't enough to overcome losses in the heavily-weighted banking complex.

Overall, the earnings reporting on Tuesday failed to live up to the market's expectations.

Dow component and Briefing.com Active Portfolio holding Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 65.07, -0.58) topped estimates by $0.07; however, investors were unimpressed that net earnings actually slipped 7.7% in the third quarter.

Separately, LM Ericsson (ERIC 31.33, -9.60) issued a nasty earnings warning that hit its stock hard and took down many other technology issues ahead of a key batch of reports Tuesday night from IBM (IBM 119.60, +1.57), Intel (INTC 25.48, -0.27) and Yahoo! (YHOO 26.69, -1.17).

Homebuilding was again cast in a negative light as a report noting homebuilder confidence fell to a record low in October and an update from D.R. Horton (DHI 12.86, -0.72) indicating net sales orders plunged 48% for the fourth quarter ended September 30th led to further selling of homebuilding stocks. Cautious commentary on the state of the housing sector from Fed Chairman Bernanke didn't help much either.

There wasn't a lot of economic data Tuesday. The Industrial Production report for September was the featured item. It showed a modest 0.1% increase for the month, but the trend in production is consistent with 2% real GDP growth and didn't change economic expectations.

In another release, it was reported that net foreign purchases of U.S. securities dropped by $69.3 billion in August, which marked the height of the credit market crisis. With the market rebounding sharply after the Fed rate cut in September, this number should show some solid improvement when the September report is released. It certainly didn't hurt the dollar Tuesday, which gained ground against a basket of other major currencies.DJ30 -71.86 NASDAQ -16.14 SP500 -10.18 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1900/1063/2.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2336/916/1.28 bln