STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 29

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday November 29, 2007

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 419 LONG DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2508 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2230 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2191
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 28, 2007

Dow... 13,289.45 +331.01 (+2.55%)
Nasdaq... 2,662.91 +82.11 (+3.18%)
S&P 500... 1,469.02 +40.79 (+2.86%)
Gold future... 807.20 -14.00 (-1.73%)
30-Year Bond 4.41% +0.05 (+1.19%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.03% +0.08 (+2.05%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Jeebus! I hope nobody bought stocks yesterday.

Sucker rally coming at hand.

[skids]

12. I wonder if the P.P.T. is ever tempted...

To "write their name" in the DOW chart. Sort of like peeing in the snow.

"Let's see if we can make a picture of a house!"

[burf]

13. Good morning Ozy,

Ya' think that was the "pump" before the "dump"?

To quote W.C. Fields, "Never give a sucker an even break"

Have a good day.

[AnneD]

29. I bought me....

a nice dog instead. He's not house trained yet-but I'm sleeping better knowing that he's here protecting us.

[Ghost Dog]

40. Cats, always cats around a place of mine, some more, some much less

domesticated.

Not much good in attack-mode, perhaps. But very sensitive defensive 'antennae'...

Jo, que gozo. What a pleasure, at this time, to have just finished watching, closely, Nick Roeg's "Walkabout" (on this small screen, for the first time since the first time).

PS. We monkeys (sorry, Great Apes) are better than dogs in attack mode anyway (unless it's a pack against isolated individuals, that is - unless their pack is more coherent and cohesive than yours?). And, yeah, I'd just love to get some experience around Big Cats, like your Mountain Lions and such...

Feedback?

[Ghost Dog]

65. Nb. Wow: those scenes they left out, compared with the Direcor's Cut,

Mate.

[ozymandius]

2. Market WrapUp: The Fat Lady Remains Silent

FDIC Q3 Banking Profile Reveals Why
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

Despite the market's two-day rally, don’t be fooled into thinking that the pain of the summer credit crisis is behind us. Quite the contrary, it’s really just picking up steam. The leverage taken on by both consumer and bank alike during the past several years in the housing boom is coming home to roost as both are paying the piper.

We have already heard over the past few months of rising delinquency and foreclosure rates and subprime losses by several brokerage houses, but it seems the banks have finally joined the party. We saw the opening inning to this trend in the banks with the release of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s (FDIC) Quarterly Banking Profile for the second quarter, which was commented upon in a previous WrapUp (Subprime Flu Infecting Other Financial Industries). The period did not include the summer’s credit crisis but still showed a deteriorating trend in the banking industry.

-cut-

As of the third quarter, construction and development loans outstanding totaled $616.4 billion. If the noncurrent rate reaches 14% as it did in the last housing recession, the total noncurrent construction and development loans would be $86.3 billion. This indicates the potential for how bad things can get in the banking industry if housing, both residential and commercial, continues to deteriorate as the third quarter net charge-off due to C&I loans of $796 million may just be the tip of the iceberg.

-cut-

Today’s Market

The markets continued yesterday’s gains with the Dow soaring more than 300 points when investors grew optimistic for a holiday gift from the Fed in terms of a rate cut as Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said that tight financial conditions may merit offsetting policy from the central bank.

Also aiding the market's rally was a sharp drop in crude prices on inventory data that showed a milder decline in inventories than expected as a result of surging imports. Crude oil inventories fell by 0.4 million barrels last week, less than the 0.9 million barrel draw down expected. Had crude imports remained steady, crude oil inventories would have fallen by 4.1 million barrels.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

8:30 AM GDP-Prel. Q3
Briefing Forecast 4.8%
Market Expects 4.9%
Prior 3.9%

8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Prel. Q3
Briefing Forecast 0.8%
Market Expects 0.8%
Prior 0.8%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/24
Briefing Forecast 330K
Market Expects 330K
Prior 330K

10:00 AM New Home Sales Oct
Briefing Forecast 725K
Market Expects 750K
Prior 770K

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[UpInArms]

18. 8:30 reports: Initial Claims @ 352,000 and more ickley stuff

01. U.S. 3Q housing investments fall 19.7%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

02. U.S. 2Q wages revised down by $44.8 billion
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

03. U.S. 3Q business investment rises 9.4%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

04. U.S. 3Q consumer spending rises 2.7%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

05. U.S. 3Q corporate profits fall $19.3bln, or 1.2% quarterly
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

06. U.S. 3Q final sales revised to 3.9% vs. 3.5% previously
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

07. U.S. 3Q core PCE price index unrevised at 1.8%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

08. U.S. 3Q GDP revisions due to inventories, trade
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

09. U.S. 3Q GDP revised to 4.9% annualized vs. 3.9% previously
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

10. Continuing claims highest since Dec. 2005
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

11. U.S. continuing jobless claims rise 112,000 to 2.66 mln
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

12. U.S. 4-wk. avg. initial jobless claims up 5,750 to 335,250
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

13. Weekly initial claims highest since Feb. 10
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

14. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims up 23,000 to 352,000
8:30 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 2 minutes ago

[Roland99]

82. One thing I want to know...with major contraction in housing and credit, how did GDP RISE to 4.9%???

That's some pretty amazing growth!

[UpInArms]

28. U.S. new-home sales down 23.5% in past year - Sept rev'd sharply downward

04. U.S. new-home sales down 23.5% in past year
10:00 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 16 minutes ago

05. U.S. Oct. new-home inventory falls to 8.5-months
10:00 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 16 minutes ago

06. New-home median sales price down 13% in past year
10:00 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 16 minutes ago

07. U.S. Sept. new-home sales revised to 11-year low of 716,000
10:00 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 16 minutes ago

08. U.S. Sept., Aug. new-home sales revised sharply lower
10:00 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 16 minutes ago

09. U.S. Oct. new-home sales rise 1.7% to 728,000 pace
10:00 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 16 minutes ago

10. U.S. Oct. new-home sales 728,000 vs. 740,000 expected
10:00 AM ET, Nov 29, 2007 - 16 minutes ago

[AnneD]

68. When no one is looking...

add in the extra figures-everyone is worried about this months reports (but hey didn't that stock market look great yesterday). Heavens-they must think we all have ADD-ADHD.

[Ghost Dog]

78. I do believe the "dumbing down" forms a large part of the plan.

(That, and of course keeping most folks just too busy to even think, never mind worry about it).

And then, they say, "Plan B" is Guns fr'all, right?

I think I'll go with the Swiss; or with China.

[ozymandius]

4. Oil prices jumps $4 in Asian trading

BANGKOK, Thailand - Oil prices jumped more than $4 Thursday after a fire erupted at a pipeline carrying crude oil from Canada to the U.S. Midwest, rebounding from the previous day's plunge.

The fire late Wednesday along the Enbridge Energy pipeline in northern Minnesota killed two workers who were repairing it, authorities said. It wasn't immediately clear how the fire and the shutdown of five pipelines would affect supplies.

Denise Hamsher, a spokeswoman for Enbridge in Houston, Texas, said because oil is stored in company stations along the line and at refineries, the pipelines could be shuttered for several days without causing disruptions in supply to the Midwest.

-cut-

Light, sweet crude for January delivery jumped $3.78 to $94.40 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by late afternoon in Singapore. It climbed as much as $4.55 to $95.17 in the electronic session before slipping back.

The contract had plunged $3.80 to $90.62 a barrel Wednesday in New York, adding to the previous session's drop of $3.28. That was a front-month contract's second largest two-day price decline since the Nymex introduced futures trading in 1983.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

8. Fire shuts key Canada-U.S. pipeline By Erwin Seba / Reuters

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071129/bs_nm/enbridge_fire_dc_6


An explosion crippled the main pipeline supplying Canadian crude to U.S. Midwest refineries on Wednesday, forcing operator Enbridge to halt nearly a fifth of U.S. imports and sending crude prices as much as $4 higher.

One of the set of four lines will require repairs and regulator inspections, while the largest is "not likely" to start up any time soon, Larry Springer, a spokesman for Calgary, Alberta-based operator Enbridge Inc (ENB.TO), said on Thursday.

The smaller two lines were several hundred feet from the fire and appear to be undamaged, but will be inspected soon before they are restarted, Springer said by phone. He was not able to give a specific time frame for restarting any of the network.

Two employees were killed in the blast and fire on the 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) Line 3, which had been shut earlier to inspect a leak, Springer added. Enbridge said in statement that the cause of the explosion had not yet been determined.

The explosion about 3.0 miles southeast of its Clearbrook, Minnesota, terminal, shut down a line that carries an estimated 1.9 million bpd of Canadian crude, equivalent to about 9 percent of total U.S. oil demand.

Oil prices roared more than 4 percent higher on the news, with traders fearing that the outage would leave mid-continent refiners short of crude. By 5:15 a.m. EST U.S. futures were up $3.51 at $94.13 a barrel, rebounding from Wednesday's fall.

"My initial impression is that (this) will put a halt to the slide in oil prices and put us back on the march towards $100 a barrel," ANZ senior commodities analyst Mark Pervan said. "The timing is pretty bad. We are coming to the strongest demand period for crude with the approach of the northern winter."


The outage comes two years after powerful hurricanes knocked out a swathe of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production, which prompted the International Energy Agency and the U.S. government to release government-held emergency oil reserves.

The U.S. holds 700 million barrels in its Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) in four sites around the Gulf, although there is limited capacity to pump those supplies to northern refiners.

A county official said the fire could burn for three days.

"The area under fire now is 100 feet by 100 feet," Jeanine Brand, County Attorney and Public Information Officer for Clearwater County, said by telephone.

Enbridge was not able to say what caused the blast but said it was working with federal and state authorities to begin a thorough investigation.

BIG OUTAGE

A lasting disruption to Lines 3 and 4 -- which combined pump over 1.1 million bpd of mainly heavy and medium crude -- would put a strain on landlocked Midwest refiners such as Flint Hills Resources and Marathon Oil Corp (MRO.N), which have few immediate alternatives to the Canadian supplies.

That in turn could drain stocks in the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) oil futures, although the Enbridge line does not flow directly there.

Refineries owned by Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), BP Plc (BP.L) and Murphy Oil Corp (MUR.N) are also linked to the pipeline.

Previous disruptions caused by leaks on the Enbridge system earlier this year have been patched up quickly enough to avoid any significant impact on customer deliveries, and the company was hopeful of restarting the smaller lines quickly.

"There is nothing from any other sources that would make us think there is any damage (to Lines 1 and 2), but as prudent operators we have to inspect them before we start them back up," Enbridge's Springer said.

The fire occurred at a main juncture in the line shortly before the U.S. portion splits into a network of other lines.

It supplies 62 percent of the crude refined in the Chicago area and 82 percent of Ontario's demand, according to the Web site of U.S. arm Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P (EEP.N).

(Additional reporting by Bill Berkrot and Robert Campbell in New York, Luke Pachymuthu, Jiwon Chung and Nick Trevethan in Singapore; Writing by Jonathan Leff; Editing by Ramthan Hussain)

[Ghost Dog]

19. Active DU thread here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3082079

[northernsoul]

25. That's why I fueled up early this morning

I expect us here in the upper Midwest to be the first to feel the pain at the pump from this.

[Roland99]

31. Same here. $2.85/gal with my $0.10/gal Kroger discount.

[UpInArms]

16. Costly oil pushes gasoline to 14-month high

http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN2956110720071029?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The effect of high crude oil prices continued to pinch consumers at the pump, with the average cost for gasoline rising 4.9 cents to the highest level in 14 months and diesel fuel soaring 6.3 cents to match the record set two years ago, the government said on Monday.

The national price for regular gasoline averaged $2.87 a gallon, up 65 cents from this time last year and the highest since August 2006, the federal Energy Information Administration said in its survey of service stations.

Pump prices are expected to climb even higher as more of this month's spike in crude oil costs is passed on to drivers.

The price of U.S. oil has jumped about $14 a barrel in October and hit a new record high of $93.80 on Monday at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Crude oil accounts for more than half the cost of making gasoline.

U.S. crude prices are up because of worries about tight petroleum supplies and the weaker U.S. dollar, which makes oil less expensive for market buyers who use other currencies.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Clinton urges Bush to tap oil reserves

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0825411820071108?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton called on the Bush administration to tap into the government's emergency crude oil and heating oil reserves to boost supplies and lower prices.

"I urge the President to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the Northeast Heating Oil Reserve to send a signal to the market and ease concerns about low crude oil stocks that are driving prices higher," Clinton said in a statement posted on Wednesday on her campaign Web site.

The price of U.S. crude oil hit a record $98.62 per barrel on Wednesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange and the average price consumers paid for home heating oil reached a record $3.11 per gallon this week, partly from concerns about tight petroleum supplies this winter.

Energy Department data also showed this week was the first time that the retail prices for heating oil, gasoline and diesel fuel all topped $3 per gallon at the same time.

The Bush administration has repeatedly said that the crude oil and heating oil reserves should only be used to offset major supply disruptions and not to manage energy prices.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

33. Nah. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be required for the next phase of the attack on Eurasia,

most likely. Or, wait a minute; maybe the invasion of Canada would be easier (and even more long-term lucrative)...

[mrgerbik]

42. Canada "whorely" cooperates...

with the powers that be.. these "rogue" nations don't.

[Ghost Dog]

46. .

UK too, whichever 'party', one notices. :-(

[ozymandius]

5. US foreclosure filings up 94 pct in Oct.

LOS ANGELES - U.S. foreclosure filings nearly doubled in October from the same month last year, the latest sign many homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments and increasingly losing their homes, according to a mortgage research company.

A total of 224,451 foreclosure filings were reported in October, up 94 percent from 115,568 in the same month a year ago, Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

The number of filings in October rose 2 percent from September's 223,538.

The U.S. had one foreclosure filing for every 555 households in October, RealtyTrac said.

The filings include default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions. Some properties might have received more than one notice if the owners have multiple mortgages.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071129/ap_on_bi_ge/foreclosure_rates

[ozymandius]

6. IKB delays results due to subprime problems

FRANKFURT (AFP) - Troubled German business lender IKB, controlled by state-owned KfW bank, said Thursday it was delaying publication of quarterly results due Friday as its tries to account for its exposure to problem US subprime home loans.

IKB, which had to be bailed out earlier this year by KfW to the tune of 8.1 billion euros (12 billion dollars), said the delay was due to the difficulty it was having in preparing its accounts to include Rhinelund Funding, a unit badly hit by the crisis in the US housing market.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071129/bs_afp/germanystocksbankingcompanyearningsikb_071129111452

[ozymandius]

7. Rate cut hopes fuel Wall Street as Dow up 331 points

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Dow Jones industrial average notched its biggest percentage gain in four and a half years on Wednesday, after comments by the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve raised expectations for an interest rate cut in December.

And a sharp drop in oil prices for a second day eased worries that high energy costs might squeeze consumers going into the holiday season. The Dow and the S&P 500 jumped more than 2 percent, and the Nasdaq surged more than 3 percent.

Banks, insurers and other financials led the rally after Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said renewed financial market turmoil could slow the economy more abruptly than previously thought. He said policy-makers must be "flexible and pragmatic."

"The implication from Kohn's comments is that the Fed now recognizes that market conditions have changed over the last month ... and that the Fed will be approaching the December 11 meeting with an open mind and will do what is necessary to keep the economy stabilized," said Philip Orlando, senior portfolio manager at Federated Global Investment manager.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071128/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc

[Hugin]

44. I doubt this is the reason...

But, I can't find the actual mechanism for the jump yesterday.

:/

[ozymandius]

9. Here's a story that underlines the brainless idiocy of yesterday's rally.

Freddie Mac shares post biggest gain in 19 years

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Freddie Mac (FRE.N) surged on Wednesday as strong demand for a record preferred stock issue signaled the second-biggest provider of U.S. home funding could access capital even in turbulent markets.

Freddie Mac stock marked the best one-day percentage gain in 19 years after the company on Tuesday said it would soon raise $6 billion in a preferred stock offering. At least $16 billion in orders for the issue allowed underwriters Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) to push away buyers asking for yields near 9 percent, and target a rate closer to 8.25 percent, according to two investors.

-cut-

Freddie Mac shares rose $3.69, or 14.3 percent, to $29.42, the highest level since the company reported a $2 billion third-quarter loss last week. Shares of Fannie Mae (FNM.N), the other housing-related government-sponsored enterprise, rose $2.90, or 9.9 percent, to $32.30.

Rising credit expenses at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. provider of home funding, caused losses at both in the third quarter, unsettling investors who had seen the companies as stalwarts through the mortgage crisis.

Freddie Mac, in addition to announcing the preferred stock sale on Tuesday, halved its dividend to preserve cash. In September and October it sold $29 billion in assets to reduce capital needs in a bid to meet surplus requirements from its federal regulator.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071128/bs_nm/freddiemac_stocks_dc

[ozymandius]

10. Have a great day folks.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Better to depart gracefully as my students are waiting for me. I'll check back when it's over.
Ozy :hi:

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 75.606 Change +0.478 (+0.64%)

Dow Rises 300 Points, Triggering a Turn in Carry Trades

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Dow_Rises_300_Points__Triggering_1196287435976.html

The Dow has rallied more than 500 points over the past 2 trading days, triggering a sharp rebound in all of the Japanese Yen crosses. Carry trades are back with a vengeance, but the question at the forefront of everyone’s minds is whether this trend will continue. Without a doubt the move in the Dow is impressive, but USDJPY is struggling to sustain its gains above 110 which suggest that further gains in carry trades may be limited. This is especially true since the move in both the Dow and carry trades have been fueled by nothing other than risk appetite and the latest US releases validate the market’s belief that Federal Reserve needs to continue lowering interest rates. The curve is pricing in a 92 percent chance for a 25bp rate cut next month followed by the possibility of another quarter point cut in the first quarter of 2008. The first test of whether the gains in carry trades can be sustained will be when Tokyo opens for trading tonight. Japanese industrial production and small business confidence are due for release this evening, but it should matter little to a market focused on risk appetite. Instead, keep an eye on China. Last night a Chinese newspaper suggested that the government could widen the trading band or make another one off revaluation. The odds are low, but unexpected events like these are exactly what triggers big moves in the currency market.

Dollar: Beige Book Report Validates Need for Further Easing

With the Federal Reserve at odds with market expectations, traders were banking on today’s Beige Book report to clear the air on who is more right about the outlook for the US economy. Recent Fed rhetoric has been all over the place with yesterday’s hawkish comments from Evans and Plosser offset by the dovish comments by Kohn today. The market on other hand has continued to price in a growing chance of a recession and even though we do not believe that a recession will occur, the US economy could come very close to it. This morning’s data indicates that weakness of the US dollar has done nothing to help the economy. Durable goods fell for the third consecutive month while existing home sales plummeted to eight year lows. Even the Beige Book painted a grim outlook with the various Fed districts reporting slower growth, little change in manufacturing, modest price pressures, depressed real estate markets and a slow holiday shopping season. The only reason why US stocks and carry trades are higher is because the market expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and they are pricing in the expected benefits. Third quarter GDP and New home sales are due for release tomorrow. The forecasts for GDP are very high, which means that it won’t take much to surprise to the downside.

...more...

Middle East Council Meeting This Weekend: How Could This Affect the US Dollar?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Middle_East_Council_Meeting_This_1196321181480.html

On December 3 and 4, the Gulf Cooperation Council – which counts Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman as members – will meet for the Doha Summit, and this meeting will be watched very carefully as the council is expected to discuss breaking their respective currencies from the US dollar peg. The synergies between the US and Persian Gulf countries have lessened quite a bit, making US monetary policy and more importantly, the US dollar, an uncomfortable fit for many GCC members. As a result, there is little reason to doubt that moving away from a dollar peg will be discussed at the Doha Summit, but what are their options and how will it affect the US dollar?

US Dollar Vulnerable in the Middle East – Why Oil Shouldn’t Be Your Only Concern

On December 3 and 4, the Gulf Cooperation Council – which counts Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman as members – will meet for the Doha Summit, and this meeting will be watched very carefully as the council is expected to discuss breaking their respective currencies from the US dollar peg. With the greenback trading near record lows, countries like the UAE and Qatar are grappling with rapidly growing import price inflation and accelerated expansion as oil revenues rocket higher. In fact, during the second quarter of this year, the Qatar Central Bank reported that inflation hit 12.8 percent. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate by 75bp since September and the markets continue to price in additional cuts. Clearly, the synergies between the US and Persian Gulf countries have lessened quite a bit, making US monetary policy and more importantly, the US dollar, an uncomfortable fit for many GCC members. As a result, there is little reason to doubt that moving away from a dollar peg will be discussed at the Doha Summit, but what are their options and how will it affect the US dollar?

Pegging to a Basket of Currencies – Most Likely Scenario

Persian Gulf countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia have a few choices when it comes to shifting their respective currencies from the dollar peg, but they will likely want to go with a method that has been tried and tested by one of the other GCC member countries: Kuwait. In May, Kuwait shifted their currency, the dinar, from a dollar peg to a basket of currencies. While the exact weighting has not been disclosed, the basket likely remains heavily weighted in the greenback, with the remaining portions in the currencies of some of their major trading partners, including Europe, the UK, and Japan. Since the shift, the Kuwaiti dinar has appreciated approximately 5 percent, indicating that a move to a currency basket is a very feasible option.

In the short-term, the announcement of a shift to a currency basket by any of the other GCC members would be detrimental to the greenback, as it would suggest that the country would start to diversify central bank reserves away from the dollar and into assets denominated in the currencies of the basket. There is significant capital at stake, as Saudi Arabia’s foreign currency reserves rose 26 percent in September from last year to $259 billion, while the UAE's reserves surged a whopping 65 percent in June from a year earlier to $43 billion. Furthermore, the risks of a sharp knee-jerk sell-off in the greenback would be exacerbated if a group of GCC members announced that they would all de-peg from the dollar, given the increased reserve diversification prospects.

...more...

[TrogL]

60. I still don't understand what "carry trade" is

and yes, I've googled. They're assuming I know something.

[UpInArms]

72. well, it's a bit complicated, but I'll give it a go

maybe I'm making this too simplified or maybe I'm all screwed up - you choose:

It's a bit like shopping for the most return on a savings account - you want the thing with the highest rate of return - or interest - but you want to pay the lowest amount of money for the product. So - you get the biggest amount of currency (the one you "carry" to the bank) at the lowest amount of interest ('cause you are going to "borrow" that currency) - then you are going to deposit it in the bank that gives the most interest back on deposit (trading the low-interest currency for the higher-interest paying currency) and then you collect the higher paying interest on the deposit and pay off the loan with your winnings.

(I hope I said that correctly)

:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

77. I basically understood carry-trade to be this also

not sure the proper words to use, but you simplfied it very nicely

[Ghost Dog]

81. Yes. Even simpler: Let's say I'm an intermediary, in the marketplace.

You come to me (locally, here in NJ or wherever (imagine I have an Italian accent, for example)). You need $100, you say. I'll give you $100 right now, I say, but you pay me $110 by such a date or I'll send the guys around to break your head.

You say: OK. I give you $100.

Meanwhile, hey, I don't have that $100 to lend. But I know where to go where they'll give me the $100 (in another marketplace, a little further away - if you have the right contact), saying, "you pay me $101 by such a date or I'll send the guys around to break your head".

So, as long as you pay me and I pay them by that date everybody's happy (and I make $9).

Otherwise: somebody is going to get hurt. Is that clear?

Edit: One should account for incidental expenses, of course, like 'communications' between marketplaces and to look after the guys who go around breaking heads, but, you get my drift, let's not get too sophisticated here.

So. Bottom line right now. ¿Who mostly owes a hell of a lot of late-paying money around here?

That's why you have to devalue. Fast. Although that's cheating too.

[UpInArms]

14. Home foreclosures soar 94 percent: RealtyTrac

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2863185720071129?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Home foreclosure filings in October edged up 2 percent from September but at 224,451 were a whopping 94 percent higher than a year earlier, real estate data firm RealtyTrac said on Thursday.

The figure, a sum of default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions, was down from a 32-month peak in August however, RealtyTrac, an online market of foreclosure of properties, said in its monthly foreclosure market report.

RealtyTrac said the national foreclosure rate was one filing for every 555 U.S. households in October.

"Overall foreclosure activity continues to register at a high level compared to last year but it appears to have leveled off over the past two months after hitting a high for the year in August," James Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.

In September, home foreclosure filings fell 8 percent.

Default rates in the subprime segment of the U.S. mortgage market, which caters to borrowers with poor credit histories, have jumped this year as the housing industry slowed and prices fell in many regions, particularly areas that benefited the most during the housing market's boom from 2000 to 2005.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Sears Holdings 3Q profit plunges 99 pct

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071129/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_sears_holdings\?_ylt=Aq7o7VXViPPkpIUqUYRe3Z.b.HQA

HOFFMAN ESTATES, Ill. - Department store retailer Sears Holdings Corp., led by hedge-fund manager Chairman Eddie Lampert, said Thursday its third-quarter profit plunged due to a $223 million drop in gross margin, reflecting weak sales and inventory-clearing markdowns.

Profits fell well short of Wall Street expectations and shares plunged 12 percent or $15.01, to $101.25 in premarket trading.

The operator of Sears and Kmart stores, which earlier this week said it may buy out the rest of retro-themed retailer Restoration Hardware Inc., reported net income declined to $2 million, or a penny per share, from $196 million, or $1.27 per share, a year ago when results were padded by $64 million in investment gains.

<snip>

The company said comparable sales, or those from stores open at least 13 months, declined 4.2 percent for the quarter at Sears stores and 5 percent at Kmart, with notable declines in clothing and lawn and garden at both.

Sears blamed the weaker sales on increased competition, less consumer spending because of the weak housing market and growing credit concerns and unseasonably warm weather, which hurt sales of apparel and other seasonal merchandise.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

20. Global regulator to probe private equity further

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=stocksNews&storyID=2007-11-29T123014Z_01_HOL942730_RTRUKOC_0_PRIVATEEQUITY-REGULATION.xml

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Global market regulators will take a more in-depth look at potential risks posed to financial markets by private equity groups, criticised by some politicians for being quick to cut jobs to make speedier returns.

The International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), which comprises national market watchdogs from over 100 countries, said a task force had identified risks that needed further study.

"We will recommend that the joint forum analyses the complexity and leverage of buyout vehicles and IOSCO will analyse the conflicts of interest that arise during private equity transactions and how these are addressed," IOSCO Chairman Michel Prada said in a statement.

Prada, also president of French securities market watchdog, AMF, said the growth of private equity in recent years posed a number of challenges to regulators that oversee international capital markets.

Private equity groups have been criticised for weighing down with debt the firms they buy before selling them off.

IOSCO's work will include "an assessment of the potential impact that the default of large private equity portfolio companies could have on the efficient operation of related public debt securities markets".

It will also examine "public-to-private transactions and the listing (or subsequent re-listing) of private equity portfolio companies".

/...

[Ghost Dog]

21. Asian stocks soar on US rate cut hopes

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071129/ts_afp/stocksworld_071129092416;_ylt=Ap92ahV8AyawJ1kSmsrcYVumOrgF

TOKYO (AFP) - Asian stocks staged a powerful rally Thursday with markets surging by as much as four percent as hopes of another US interest rate cut cheered investors around the globe.

They said worries about the US subprime loan crisis seemed to have receded for now, although the fallout was likely to continue for some time. A sharp fall in oil prices also provided a boost to sentiment.

Hong Kong leapt 4.1 percent and Shanghai soared 4.2 percent. Tokyo jumped 2.8 percent, Singapore surged 3.1 percent, Seoul advanced 2.3 percent and Sydney gained 1.2 percent.

Dealers took their cue from New York where the Dow Jones index surged 2.55 percent Wednesday after comments from Federal Reserve vice chairman Donald Kohn lifted expectations of a US rate cut in December, dealers said.

"Hopes of a fresh rate cut in the US soothed investors on Wall Street and the market here also reacted positively," said Won Jong-Hyuck, an analyst at SK Securities in Seoul.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

22. EU trade chief says India deal good for world economy

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINDEL30537020071129?rpc=611

NEW DELHI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - A free trade pact between India and the European Union would provide a big boost to both economies and help shore up global demand if the world economy begins to cool, the EU's trade chief said.

Reinforcing strong growth in India, the world's fastest-growing major economy after China, was now an integral part of maintaining global economic demand, Peter Mandelson told businessmen at an India-EU business summit on Thursday.

"I think along with the Doha world trade talks, our FTA potentially has a very important role not just in boosting our economies but also the global economy as a whole," he added.

"An FTA will significantly increase Indian exports to the European Union, and EU imports and investment in my view have a valuable role in stimulating further the Indian economy.

"Spurring Indian economic growth, poverty reduction, is of course very good for India, but it would also take up the slack if, as is widely expected, other parts of the global economy begin to slow."

India's economy grew 9.4 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2007, its strongest pace in 18 years. Growth has averaged 8.6 percent over the past four years and policymakers expect about 9.0 percent this fiscal year.

Mandelson said the EU was fully prepared to address issues of non-tariff barriers and intellectual property rights as it negotiates the India deal, which Indian and EU leaders will attempt to push forward when they meet at a Friday summit.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

23. UPS sees fast-growing Asia unaffected by softer U.S.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBOM26567420071129?rpc=611

MUMBAI, Nov 29 (Reuters) - Packaging delivery company United Parcel Service Inc (UPS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) expects regional growth in Asia will remain robust and be unaffected by a slowing U.S. economy, a senior company official said on Thursday.

UPS, the world's largest package delivery company, has said growth this peak season would be below the previous four years, reflecting slowing U.S. economic growth, the housing sector slowdown and expectations of low retail sales growth.

But rising trade within the Asia-Pacific region was boosting demand for freight and logistics services in countries including China, India, Vietnam and Thailand, said Ken Torok, president of Asia-Pacific region for UPS.

"Asia-Pacific is our fastest growing region, as the momentum in the services sector and infrastructure development continues," he said at a conference to launch a strategic alliance with local logistics firm AFL Pvt Ltd.

"And in the region, intra-Asia trade is the fastest growing and leading segment," he said.

/...

[UpInArms]

24. "If the elevator operator recommends buying, you should have sold long ago."

It is said that Henry Ford was taking the elevator to his penthouse one day in 1929, and the operator said, "Mr. Ford, a friend of mine who knows a lot about stocks recommended that I buy shares in X, Y, and Z. You are a person with a lot of money. You should seize this opportunity." Ford thanked him, and as soon as he got into his penthouse, he called his broker, and told him to sell everything. He explained afterwards: "If the elevator operator recommends buying, you should have sold long ago."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fear-takes-holiday-greed-returns/story.aspx?guid=%7B9EDB9263%2D5CC3%2D4802%2D8126%2D7C73D7C9923F%7D

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ah greed. It's good, you know?

At least it is when it appears in the form of a powerful snapback rally like we've seen in the U.S. stock market in the last two days.

Any investor worth his or her Ameritrade account has been itching for the chance to get into the financials in the last month, as their shares plummeted amid rising exposure to the subprime-mortgage debacle and the subsequent chopping of heads at the big investment banks.

Even my cab driver on a recent trip to the airport had his list of financial stocks to jump on, when he felt the time was right. Buy the banks, avoid the mortgage lenders, you know?

...more...

[Warpy]

27. Those are the only stock tips I take

If a dabbler in a 401K tells me what's really, really hot, I run through my portfolio to see if I have it. If I do, I dump it.

[trogdor]

36. If I knew exactly when to buy/sell, I wouldn't be working.

I'd have a sweet gig like Jim Cramer.

[abelenkpe]

37. what if all you have is a 401k?

I read this thread everyday. It's awesome. (Thank you all very much!) I also check out a lot of other financial news and blogs. But I'm just your average worker concerned that my piddly little 401k is gonna go boom with all the gyrations in the market and the falling dollar. I've been looking at how I can move my money around inside my 401k but all the options are rather limited.
Why is it that in order to save for ones retirement we have to tie our money up in a casino? Isn't there a saner or safer way to provide for retirement? I can't help thinking that the 401k is just funny money that will magically evaporate before it is ever useful. Or am I too pessimistic?

[Warpy]

45. Know that you're in it for the long haul

and while I don't think the stock market will go completely bust, a very large correction is quite possible. However, the trend over time is generally an upward one. If it's going to be 30 years until you retire, you'll probably be fine. Shoot, even half that will do OK. Also realize you're not just looking at the per share price, you're looking at dividends those stocks will generate. Also, we're not letting those bastards touch Social Security, and I don't care how much the rest of the government cries bankruptcy after 8 years of Grover Norquist running the economy.

[DemReadingDU]

48. Not necessarily. What if a person is old and retired?

They can't afford to see their 401k lose 20%. It might take years to come back, if at all. I speak from experience. I was in a U.S. growth fund when it tanked in 2001/2002. It still has not recovered and it's been 5+ years. I finally got out and transfered to a bond index fund. Not sure if that is the best place, due to the sub-prime mortgage scandal, but at least this fund has not lost any money, yet.

[Warpy]

49. My granny was a 50 something divorcee

with no access to work that paid a living wage (or work at all, really) during the Depression. She and my mother lived on oatmeal three times a day during the worst of it, but they kept their home and didn't even take in boarders. Enough of her stocks survived to support her afterward.

My mother had a patchwork of jobs: switchboard operator, department store ad artist, lab clerk, fountain girl.. all to support herself while she went through school. She said the best thing all week was a celebratory fried egg sandwich for a nickel on Friday when she got paid.

The thing is that they survived with a reduced income because my grandmother had wisely avoided debt, had refused to enter the market bubble on margin and wasn't left holding debt without assets when it went bust. It is possible to survive a drastically reduced income and still do reasonably well in the long term.

[DemReadingDU]

53. avoiding debt, that is the clue

We are ok here, no debt, house paid for, kids grown. But if things get worse, we have stuff to sell to be able to survive. And I love oatmeal, I eat it every day now!

[DemReadingDU]

47. What if all a person has, is a bank savings account?

This is America, we use dollars to buy food and gas. Most Americans need their paychecks to buy the necessities. The savings account is for emergencies. With the value of the dollar declining, it takes more dollars to buy less. There is no extra money to buy gold, nothing extra to transfer to Euros. I guess we might need to use the barter system to be able to survive.

[AnneD]

58. Kamikaze Personal Financing.....

I went through this when I got layed off in the Houston RE Bust and S&L bust economy. It is never to late to start this.

1)save your receipts for a month and see where the money goes. Get the scissors out. Here's what I found I could cut. I cut heavily-the goal was to save as much cash as possible. Look at what you spend for and come up with alternetives.

1)cable that was so non necessary that I never ever had it turned back on-talk about savings. I rent videos and CD's from the library and if you are so desperate that you had to cut off your internet-it is a good place to go. Your library will be your new best friend. Learn all the free wifi places. A cup of coffee in exchange for several hours of internet is a bargain.

2)phone-a prepaid cell phone can be cost effective. They didn't have so many cell phones when I was laid off so I had to keep it for job interviews but I got the cheapest plan.

3)groceries-visit friends around dinner time. Yes toward the end-my pantry was give out and I couldn't face one more dinner of beans-I was such a mooch and my friends knew how hard it was that they actually started inviting me. I was a charming dinner companion. I also dumpster dove. In selected areas, it can be a life saver. I actually went to the grocery store and the second hand bakery and score freebies before they hit the trash can.

4)gas-I walked every where-except to interviews. I was off the bus line otherwise it would have been the bus for me.

5)Utilities -electric blankets. I could stand a cold house but a toasty bed made it bearable. I kept my clothes there too. Putting on warm clothes in the morning was nice. Kerosene lamps were nice too. They gave off heat and proved to be economical for late night reading. Showers were in the evening, when the house was warmer. I washed clothes less often and air dried.

Now cutting is one answer, but so was raising money.

1)garage sales.

2)yard work.

3)work for goods and services.

4)barter, barter, barter.

By the time I had finally gotten a part-time job-I had a spartan dwelling and an empty pantry but I had survives a year's unemployment with my mind still intact. My friends were a godsend and my family was a blessing. Some days were harder than others and I was amazed at what a mind trip it was. I had to take things a day at a time. I was blessed with good health and that helped-otherwise I would have been in more dire straights. It really is hard being outside looking in but I learned some great lessons and have a more generous spirit because of it.

[DemReadingDU]

73. Great ideas!

We are ok, for now. I worry about the young folks, just starting out, with babies and pre-schoolers. It's going to be tough for them.

[Ghost Dog]

84. I squatted in Central London and scavenged leftovers from street markets.

Shoplifted occasionally, yes. Became a second-hand goods scavenger/recycler/dealer. And began to retrain on the back of the by-then vestigial 'socialist' State's budget (my folks had contributed to - I contributed later).

Friends, in that place, in my case, were mostly Nº1 Irish... And from there more international...

As you said, AnneD, one learns (from down below) how to share.

[antigop]

57. abelenkpe, I wholeheartedly agree with you

My answer is that we need a DEFINED BENEFIT pension system for EVERYONE -- a system that is actuarially funded (not like pay-as-you-go Social Security.) A system that has a real trust fund behind it -- with STRONG REGULATIONS (a la ERISA) that would prohibit funny goings-on. And you would need periodic COLAs to provide inflation protection. I don't want to hijack the stock market thread -- so I won't post any more details.

On another thread on another day, I made the point that as far as 401(k)'s go -- you should be periodically able to withdraw YOUR contributions. It's YOUR money that YOU contributed. Therefore, there should be a provision in EVERY 401(k) plan to roll your contributions periodically to an IRA. 401(k) plans already have this capability to a limited extent -- but usually (perhaps always?) you can't roll your 401(k) over until you quit or retire. If you work at one place for a long time, you should not have to keep YOUR money in the funds that are in the company's 401(k) plan. You should be able to get those out periodically and roll them into an IRA of your own choosing.

<edited for clarity>

<edit to add> Ask any actuary. He/she will tell you the most efficient way to provide retirement benefits for a large group of people is through a defined benefit plan.

[AnneD]

70. I agree....

I stay with my job because it is a defined benefit. I try so hard to explain this to the new kids. It may not seem like much now, but it will be a life saver when you are at the end of your work years. It was the best thing I ever did.

[DemReadingDU]

71. My company used to have a old-fashioned pension plan

Then after I was employed there about 15 years, just when it was starting to get a nice balance, the company switched to a cash-balance type plan. Because I was 50, the company added a small 'bonus' each year to make up for the early years. Unfortunately, shortly after that, the company retired me and thousands throughout the company.

Now I worry, that the pension plan could be funded with funny money. Hoping I still have a pension for the rest of my life.

[antigop]

79. Yes, I know all about cash-balance type plans.

That's why we need strong REGULATIONS, enforcement, and severe penalties for funny goings-on.

FYI: Cash-balance pension plans are illegal. They violate the ERISA rule that says your rate of accrual cannot decline due to age. A district judge ruled for the employees in the IBM case. When it went to the appellate level, a Reagan-appointed judge ruled for the employers. The Supreme Court refused to take the case. There are still suits in other districts. It remains to be seen what happens.

If your pension plan is funded with "funny money", then at some point, (unless your company declares bankruptcy and the plan gets turned over the PBGC), why wouldn't the company have to put in some real dollars to fund it?

[feminazi]

67. abelenkpe, check and see if your 401K

has a self-directed brokerage account option. That will allow you to move a portion (how much depends on your plan) to a brokerage account while keeping it in your 401K. I work for a company that has this option and I've moved some of my money to Schwab where I can invest it in mutual funds, EFT's, stocks, etc. It's worked out well so far. I wish I had done it sooner.

I'm also lucky enough to have worked for a company for almost 25 years that DOES have a pension plan. And I do considered myself fortunate in that regard.

[AnneD]

69. An indexed fund....

can soothe the rough edges if you are close to retirement.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_fund

[bain_sidhe]

76. check to see if the fund has an "interest account" option

They go by different names: standard, basic, fixed or fixed income, but they're basically a glorified savings account. They pay interest. True, it's likely to only be 2 or 3 percent, which won't keep up with inflation, but for the next few years, earning *anything* on your money will be far better than losing 20, 30, or even 40% of it.

That's my best advice, anyway. I wish I'd gotten into it BEFORE our account lost 30% in the 2001-2002 bust.

[DemReadingDU]

26. Roubini: Last Legs of the Stock Market Sucker's Rally

The Bernanke Put and the Last Legs of the Stock Market Sucker's Rally
Nouriel Roubini | Nov 29, 2007

How sharply will the US stock market fall if the US experiencees a recession? Given the recent flow of very negative macro news, the likelihood of a US hard landing has sharply increased; thus, it is important to assess the implication of such growth slowdown, hard landing or outright recession on the stock market.

It is true that in the last two days the US stock market has recovered sharply after a significant 10% downward correction in the period from early October until Monday. But the most sensible interpretation of the upward move on Tuesday and Wednesday this week (in spite of an onslaught of lousy macro news: consumer confidence, existing home sales, Beige Book, fall in durable goods orders, regional Fed manufacturing reports, initial claims for unemployment benefits, expectations that Q4 growth will be closer to 0% after the revised 4.9% in Q3, sharply rising credit losses, falling home prices and a worsening housing recession, etc.) is that this is the last leg of a sucker's rally (or dead cat's bounce) driven by wishful hopes that the Fed easing will prevent a recession.

So beware of the large amount of spin that is being peddled today by bulls that are now starting to recognize that a recession is likely: they need to spin the bad news about the economy as suggesting that such bad news are actually very good news for the stock markets or that the Fed will be able to prevent such a recession. For these perma-bulls good economic news are very good for the stock market and bad economic news are also very good for the stock markets as the reaction (“I guess it is probably a buying opportunity”) to my recession call by the Squawk Box anchor interviewing a while ago suggests. But savvy investors will not let themselves to be fooled by such non-sequitur arguments and will cautiously adjust their portfolio to reduce the risk of being stuck in a bear market when the recession actually gets under way.


lots more, charts too
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/229403

edit to add:
The charts present the percentage change in that S&P500 index around the last six U.S. recessions (i.e. starting with 1970), i.e. in the months before the start of a recession, in the months during a recession and in the months after it. The vertical lines in each charts represents the peak of the business cycle (i.e. the beginning of a recession) and its trough (end of a recession). On average the stock market does not change much between the peak and the trough of the business cycle: on average the fall is only 0.4% between peak and trough; in some recessions – such as the 1974-1975 one - the peak-to-trough fall is much deeper (-13%) but in others – such as the 1980 one – stock prices actually rose 5.8% between peak and trough; so -0.4% is an average for all recessions.

[muleboy303]

30. tyvm for the Roubini's

in the next 100 days over 70% of the delegates for the GOP/DEM nominations will be selected.

as i believe there is a far greater confluence between national politics and finance than
most folks realize, or the msm would ever admit, i would expect the DOW to trend sideways
violently during this time. say, between 13,800 and 12,500, until the political process
has produced clearer future expectations.

i cannot imagine the DOW dropping to a 15-20% loss from it's yearly high during this time
as it would have severe negative consequences for Wall Street's preferred candidates on
both sides, whose names are synonymous with NEW YORK.

(unless perhaps, they really want BLOOMBERG, which i suppose is possible)

11 Dec is looking more interesting every day (will they or won't they?)

time will tell

[Ghost Dog]

34. BTW do be aware of the following comment by Setser posted in his blog referred to in yesterday's SMW

viz:

Guest -- you know, I am now on the payroll of the CFR not RGE. I just blog here for legacy reasons; your questions are better directed to Dr. Roubini directly.

I'll take a look at H8.

Anonymous -- so has the time come to sell euro denominated bunds high and buy dollar-denominated subprime backed CDOS low? that certainly wasn't the right trade looking back, but at some point it may be the right trade looking forward ... I am curious when the smart money thinks that time may be approaching.
Written by bsetser on 2007-11-28 08:35:52

[muleboy303]

41. tyvm GD

i'll not be surprised if after the Chinese and ME-SWFs finish purchasing large chunks of US properties, the US Dollar subsequently begins a long-term appreciation. (circa 2009/2010)

[trogdor]

39. So Wall Street likes Hillary?

I mean, we could do worse. That's about all I have to say.

[AnneD]

55. Morning Marketeers.......

:donut: and lurkers.

Two new stories caught my eye yesterday: Bush's attempt to build a legacy and the WS Rally. The two seem to be connect-but not in the way you might think.

There is no need for Bush to leave a legacy, he has been building on for the last 7 years. Suffice it to say that no one genetically connected to Bush will ever be elected again-but I could be surprised. Like the character of Marley in Dickinson's A Christmas Carol, Bush has been forging the chains of his legacy and they will weigh very heavily here and in the after life. He has stratified wealth with his 'Tax Reforms' in ways our Founding Fathers never dreamed. He has placed us in such deep debt that it condemns our children and grandchildren to economic slavery, he has allowed jobs to be outsourced and gutted our educational system in such a manner that our children will only have slave jobs at slave wages, he has attempted repeatedly to raid the workers saving for he and his cronies benefits-leaving them penniless in their old age, he has appointed a SCOTUS that while pro porting to be 'Constructionist' has done every thing in their power to DECONSTRUCT the Constitution of the US, he has abridged and usurped our civil and human rights by enacting the Patriot Act, doing away with habeas corpus, and the Geneva Convention. He has fouled our Earth by denying global warming, promoting Intelligent Design, ditching the Kyoto Protocol, stripping protective environmental laws. But his greatest legacy will be the Iraq war-which guarantees our sons will be cannon fodder for the oil companies and destabilize an entire region. The important question to ask here is why is he worried about his legacy? This is a man that his proported to not give a whit about history. Why is he concerned at this juncture. It can't be for the GOP-they are left in tatters at this point. I have thought long and hard about this and the best I can come up is that they want to hamstring the next President. Why would someone that never cared for history be concerned about a legacy:dilemma:

Now for WS. They, like our President, have shown themselves to be fools. They bought risk and are now upset that it is not paying off, and think we should foot the bill. They react in a manner that is deleterious to the economy and then shake in their boots when the consumer acts in a cautious manner. They are like young turkeys that are too stupid to keep their mouth closed when looking up at a rain cloud and drown. Small investors have been pulling out or placing their money in safer places if possible. If WS and the talking heads think that the housing crunch will improve by late 2008, they are only fooling themselves. During our Housing bust in Houston-it took at least 5 years for things to improve, and we didn't have the buildup that we have nationally. Fasten your seat belts folks, it will be a rough long ride. Guess we can chalk this up to Bush too.


Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Ghost Dog]

66. But hey, AnneD: At least some of the 'outsourcing', 'globalisation' you folks (relatively)

are now beginning to suffer from, surely, does indeed represent, at least, some kind of (painfully, for all) "trickling down" (like, down one's legs), and spreading out around of, maybe, some kind of (perhaps too destructive) wealth, (at best, even commonwealth you know?

How does the song go? Something like: "Only rich girls cry".

[AnneD]

74. Lot's of things...

'trickle' down, and some things even float as some GOP leaders have proven.

And actually Ghost-this outsourcing is not a recent phenomena. I remember it going full tilt in the 70's. I live in Texas and it started with the maquiladoras at the US-Mexico border, and the dropping of steel quotas to allow cheap foreign made steel.

Why outsourcing hurts so much now is that these jobs that are outsourced have not been replaced. They were replaced for a while with computer based jobs but now those computer jobs are gone (or they won't hire US Grads) and there is nothing on the horizon for our kids and grandkids. It is not a case of rich girls crying. Our kids and their families pay through the nose to get them an education, but the job won't even earn them enough to pay back the loans. It's almost better for them not to go to school to avoid wage slavery-now how crazy is that.

[Ghost Dog]

80. It's observable, AnneD, don't you see it? That US folks tend to think/feel only about

themselves.

Now, purely anecdotally, last time I attended a (second-rate) British university (Essex), I would say that around two-thirds, back then - in the late 'seventies - of Masters-level computer science students were Asian: maybe 50% essentially Chinese (from whichever 'nation'); the other 50%, shall we say, indo-european (perhaps more Muslim than, for example, Hindu).

For some it would have been easy, for some families very hard to send their sons and daughters so far to learn to do so much.

My (independent, I think) Bangladeshi "drug dealer" (fine hash oil - a great help in the exams) at the time, there, as a contrasting example, gave me to understand that his family was "high-up" in BCCI - and a very free spirit, himself.

In fact, he offered me a job (in, sort of, his father's name? though he must have been a kind of 'Black Sheep') in BCCI. Which I turned down (in my father's name, maybe (I was warned)).

He taught me one, sure, lesson, though. When I asked him "What work do you plan to do in the future? He answered: "Work? I don't plan to work. I plan to get other people to work for me".

Of course, I shall never forget the so sophisticated and untouchable young Persian woman, chastely but at the same time so attractively veiled, those eyes. Why was it impossible?

And you, freckled half-French Marie.

Uh, but I see I am getting carried away. I wanted to make the point that those "Non-resident Alien" students were learning so much, and working so hard (almost no play), and paying for it, while we "natives" were, shall we say, generally, not so focussed.

Jesus. I think I just got stoned, again. I hope my lady doesn't catch me.

Edit: Now, who can tell us something about what life is like at Oxford or Cambridge or over there in the so-called "Ivy League" (or in Berkeley, Cornell, UCSD, University of Montreal or wherever...)?

[Roland99]

32. 11:02White House sees avg. monthly job gains of 109,000 in '08. (uhhhhh)

Considering we need at least 150,000 - 160,000 per month to maintain equilibrium with population growth, um, this is not good.

But, hey, it's not a negative number so that means it's a positive sign for the economy, right?!?!?

[Danascot]

35. Impending Destruction of the US Economy

Interesting read by a former Asst Treasury Secty under Reagan (!).

In the 21st century, the US economy has been driven by consumers going deeper in debt. Consumption fueled by increases in indebtedness received its greatest boost from Fed chairman Alan Greenspan’s low interest rate policy. Greenspan covered up the adverse effects of offshoring on the US economy by engineering a housing boom. The boom created employment in construction and financial firms and pushed up home prices, thus creating equity for consumers to spend to keep consumer demand growing.

This source of US economic growth is exhausted and imploding. The full consequences of the housing bust remain to be realized. American consumers lack discretionary income and can pay higher taxes only by reducing their consumption. The service industries, which have provided the only source of new jobs in the 21st century, are already experiencing falling demand. A tax increase would cause widespread distress.

As John Maynard Keynes and his followers made clear, a tax increase on a recessionary economy is a recipe for falling tax revenues as well as economic hardship.

Superpower America is a ship of fools in denial of their plight. While offshoring kills American economic prospects, “free market economists” sing its praises. While war imposes enormous costs on a bankrupt country, neoconservatives call for more war, and Republicans and Democrats appropriate war funds which can only be obtained by borrowing abroad.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article18787.htm

Has it's own thread at:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x323416

[antigop]

38. FORTUNE: A stake in Citi is just the start

http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/28/magazines/fortune/sovereignwealth_1129.fortune/index.htm

State-backed foreign entities will continue to try to snap up ailing Western firms. Fortune provides a helpful list of do's and don'ts.

(Fortune) -- So you're lousy with petrocash or other export-driven windfalls, and itching to put your depreciating dollars to work. Where to start? Here's Fortune's handy tip sheet:

DO look for an iconic property. It's no mistake that when Abu Dhabi's investment fund took a big stake in a U.S. company this week, it chose as its target perhaps the world's best-known financial institution: Citigroup (Charts, Fortune 500).

Other recent purchases by overseas investors have run along this same big-name theme. Deals this year include Dubai's purchase of a nearly 5% interest in electronics giant Sony (Charts), Abu Dhabi's acquisition of a 7.5% stake in the well-connected private equity outfit the Carlyle Group, and China's $3 billion bet on wheeler-dealer Blackstone (Charts).

The search for icons goes back at least to the 1980s, when Japanese investors bought Rockefeller Center and the Pebble Beach golf club. Like this week's Citi stake sale, the Japanese real estate grabs were the source of some alarm at the time, as wags wondered if the U.S. was consigning itself to a future of economic serfdom.

[0007]

43. Funny cartoon!

[lovuian]

50. I never thought I would hear the D word on Kudloe & Company

but Depression was said by a English Analyst
Kudloe the Godilocks of the group just died to see his face was priceless

Stunned

but I believe we are in real danger here

[PassingFair]

51. But...

The stock market is SOARING!

:crazy:

[CatholicEdHead]

59. Did Larry Kudlow try to blame it on the Democratic Party

as is normal for him. Is he thinking we need a GOP sweep in 08 to turn things around?

I have been watching the Stock Market thread daily for the past month and hear things that I never hear elsewhere (maybe being suppressed to not spark a panic). I have also cracked my 99cent copy of Bankruptcy 1995 as there are a few relevant chapters in there (and a few nutty ones). How quickly we forget.

[Joanne98]

52. Bank of International Settlements Reports Outstanding Derivatives at $516 Trillion

http://www.bis.org/publ/otc_hy0711.pdf?noframes=1

[Joanne98]

54. Dollar displaces yen, Swiss franc as favorite for carry-trade funding

http://www.gata.org/node/5784

[TrogL]

61. Is that what a carry trade is?

Using the dollar to pay for purchases of currencies with higher yields is proving to be the most profitable trade in the foreign-exchange market.

Isn't that just rats leaving a sinking ship?

[Joanne98]

64. Yep They stealing all the life jackets too. Greedy bastards!

[Joanne98]

56. Chapter 11 filings in 3rd quarter climb 35%

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bankrupt29nov29,1,4745134.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

[jdog]

62. Florida today suspended withdrawals from a state investment fund

<snip>

Florida today suspended withdrawals from a state investment fund after cities, counties and school boards -- fearful of the fund's financial stability -- withdrew $3.5 billion in just one day.

<snip>

Local governments fear they could lose their money because the state invested it in funds backed by loans to homeowners with questionable credit -- the same loans that have triggered an international credit crunch.


http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-bk-statefund112907,0,5698387.story?coll=orl_sports_football_jaguars_util

[antigop]

63. Paulson works with industry on loan plan

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-21318719.htm

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and federal banking regulators are working out the details of a plan to extend lower, introductory interest rates on home loans before they reset at higher levels.

Paulson and other top regulators met Thursday morning with loan servicing companies -- which collect and distribute loan payments -- and other industry executives. A formal agreement had not yet been announced as of Thursday, but could be unveiled early next month.

'We've all agreed that there should be some sort of standardized approach to reaching more homeowners faster,' said Treasury Department spokeswoman Jennifer Zuccarelli, who declined to name those at the meeting.

A story published Thursday by American Banker named Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE:WM) , Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE:CFC) , Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE:GWF) (NYSE:JWF) (NYSE:WSF) (NYSE:WPF) (NYSE:WFC) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM PRH) (NYSE:JPM PRX) (NYSE:JPM PRK) (NYSE:JPM PRJ) (NYSE:JPT) (NYSE:JPM) & Co. as companies participating in the briefing.

[UpInArms]

75. Fed may need to cut rates another 100 bps -T. Rowe

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2922320620071129?sp=true

NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve may need to slash the federal funds rate by another 100 basis points to prevent a U.S. recession on the heels of the subprime mortgage meltdown, the director of fixed-income investing at T. Rowe Price said on Thursday.

Mary Miller said at T. Rowe's annual investment outlook conference in New York that short-term rates could fall to 3.50 percent in 2008, from 4.50 percent currently, as the Fed focuses on shoring up the weak economy.

"I think that they will put inflation on the back burner to focus on growth and make sure that they keep us out of a negative growth place," Miller told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference. "I think they could take that many steps simply to try and stave off a recession."

The Fed aggressively cut interest rates by a half point to 4.75 percent in September, followed by a quarter-point cut in October to 4.50 percent, in an attempt to shelter the economy from further deterioration in the credit and housing markets.

"The markets have built in (a) tremendous amount of Fed rate-cutting with the two-year Treasury note close to 3 percent," said Miller.

...more...

[Roland99]

83. But...but...but.... GDP is 4.9%! We're on fire!!!

[UpInArms]

85. cosing numbers and blahter - ponies and lollypops for everyone!

Dow 13,311.73 22.28 (0.17%)
Nasdaq 2,668.13 5.22 (0.20%)
S&P 500 1,469.72 0.70 (0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 3.94% 0.085

NYSE Volume 3,539,243,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,180,081,000

4:15 pm : In the wake of the massive two-day rally, the major indices showed a striking resilience to profit-taking efforts as they finished slightly higher on Thursday after being down in early-trading. This is an encouraging sign to market bulls considering gains were made in the face of some weak economic data and a few disappointing earnings reports.

The S&P 500 Retailing Index (-0.7%) was under pressure today as several retailers failed to live up to earnings expectations. Notably, Sears Holding (SHLD 104.09, -12.25) posted a third quarter profit of $0.01 per share, marking a whopping 99% drop in earnings compared to a year-ago. Shares plummeted 10%.

E*Trade (ETFC 4.82, -0.46) gained more than 10% in early trading following news of a $2.5 billion capital infusion from Citadel Investment Group. The stock, however, failed to build on the opening gains and actually ended the day noticeably lower. Presumably, the lack of follow through on early buying efforts prompted momentum accounts, which had bought the stock on speculation about a possible deal, to lock in profits.

Of the four sectors that traded lower, the financial sector (-0.7%) was the main laggard. A bit of a pullback, though, was expected considering financials were up roughly 8% in the last two sessions.

The telecom sector (+1.1%) managed to post the highest gain. The energy sector (+1.0%) also provided leadership, although it finished well off its session high as crude oil was unable to hold its gains.

January crude oil ( +$0.44 to $91.05) traded in a volatile manner following word overnight that an explosion cut Canadian oil shipments through four pipelines in Minnesota that supply crude to the Midwest. After spiking more than $4.00 per barrel, prices pulled back on news that two pipelines were reopened and the remaining pipelines will be reopened within a few days.

There were several economic reports released, although the market's response was mostly muted.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended Nov. 24 rose to 352,000 from 329,000 the week before. This is just one week of data in what can be a volatile series, but it bears watching to see if an uptrend develops.

Third quarter real GDP was revised upward to a very strong 4.9% annual growth rate from a previously reported 3.9%. This was in-line with expectations. On a related note, Dow Jones reports the White House raised its 2007 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.7% versus 2.3% and cut its 2008 U.S. GDP forecast to 2.7% versus 3.1%.

New home sales for October rose 1.5%, but only because the September level was revised sharply lower. At an annual rate of 728,000, sales were below expectations of about 750,000. The median price of a new home sold dropped a very steep 13%. The housing industry remains in a deep slump that will continue for a while. DJ30 +22.28 NASDAQ +5.22 SP500 +.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1629/1366/2.17 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1784/1474/1.33 bln

3:30 pm : Heading into the final half-hour of trading, the major indices continue to cling to the unchanged mark. Market volatility is slightly lower today as indicated by the 1.1% decline in the VIX.

After the close, eight companies are confirmed to report earnings, including Dell (DELL 28.34, +0.65).

Tomorrow before the open, October core-PCE Inflation, Personal Income and Personal Spending will all be released at 8:30ET.DJ30 +16.26 NASDAQ +4.02 SP500 -0.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1583/1354/1.77 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1791/1451/967 mln