Poll: Dean and Clark gaining in California (Dean 31%, Clark 14%)

[stickdog]

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/7714102.htm

Six weeks before the California primary, Howard Dean comfortably leads the field of Democrats seeking the presidential nomination in the state, although a quarter of likely voters have not made up their minds, according to a poll released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

The former Vermont governor's support stands at 31 percent, followed by retired Gen. Wesley Clark at 14 percent. The seven other candidates registered in single digits among the 420 likely Democratic voters polled on their preferences.

Dean rose 10 points and Clark 11 points from the previous PPIC poll, taken in September and before Clark officially entered the race.

[Le Taz Hot]

1. Yesss!!!!!

Man, we have been working so hard all over this state since last March organizing for Dean. It's so great to see that very hard work pay off!

And congrats to General Clark as well. Clark supporters have done a fantastic job in organizing this very large state in a very short amount of time.

(Note: Anyone going to the CA Dem. Convention this weekend please PM me.)

[Born Free]

10. Congrats to all - democrats need to hang in there

This is going to be a nasty campaign, worse than the Nixon re-election campaign with the republicans using every means possible to win, regardless of legality or morality issues. Democrats must remain strong and supportive of their candidates, unwilling to back down. Democrats are fighting to return America to the people and must not fail. Remain alert and question everything the republicans do, never take for granted they are following any rules, and speak up each and every time you see something that isn't right.Don't sit back and let them steal this election like they did in Florida.

[Hoosier Democrat]

2. Awfully small poll sample

California has what, a bazillion people? The polling firm talks to just over 400? Seems like more than that ran for governor in last year's Republican Coup.

I think its great that Dean's got such a big lead, but I wouldn't put much stock into such a tiny poll.

[Le Taz Hot]

4. It's legit

I've gone to several state Democratic events during the last year -- trust me, the support for Dean is there. Remember, we've been working since last March organizing for Dean. Additionall, the support for Clark and Kucinich is very strong here as well. Virtually nothing for the other candidates. (Edwards supporters have JUST formed a caucus group here locally.)

However, our Primary is only 6 weeks away and that should serve as proof for all the naysayers.

[stickdog]

7. National polls routinely talk to about 600 people.

This poll interviewed more than 1100, of which about 400 were identified as likely Democratic voters.

[Barkley]

12. Statistics and Polls

If a poll is truly a 'simple random sample' meaning that every member of the population (of say voting adults) has an equal chance of being interviewed then a size of 400 should be sufficient to make inferences about the entire population (by the Central Limit Theorem).

One small problem I find with the aforementioned poll is that it sort of compares apples and oranges because Dean and Clark have no running mates. If you favor Bush (you implicitly favor Cheney too). So favoring Clark or Dean is not exactly analogous to favoring Bush.

Many people haven't given the election serious thought -- Sadly, too many people are more interested the Kobe and Micheal ordeals right now.

Bush also has the advantage of name recognition Clark and Dean do not.

[cthrumatrix]

3. this is clearly why the media is bashing Dean - his message of taking back

America is one of truth...we have lost our media andit's costing us lives and freedoms

Dean see's this BS taking place and has the guts to call it out. You would be angry to.

[bigwillq]

5. And such a big lead at that

Go Dean!!!!

[David__77]

6. Dean will win California.

He has an excellent organization in this state. I can't imagine him not winning. That's probably a fourth of the necessary delegates right there.

[question everything]

8. Bush winning California?

From http://www.latimes.com/news/local/pilot/news/la-dpt-polllandscape15jan15,1,1692796.story

Bush defeats Dean, according to state poll

Had an election been held last week between President Bush and Democratic front-runner Howard Dean, California would have been solidly in favor of re-electing Bush, numbers released by Costa Mesa Republican pollster Adam Probolsky said.

A poll released Monday showed Bush garnering 50% of the vote and former Vermont Gov. Dean taking 35.4%, with 3.7% of those polled saying they'd vote for someone else and 10% unsure whom they'd pick. Probolsky polled 625 registered voters and reported a 4% margin of error for the poll.

======

(I don't know how reliable this pollster is..)

[question everything]

9. Also, Bush's moon ambitions can play well in SoCal

From http://www.dailynews.com/Stories/0,1413,200~20950~1891491,00.html

Bush plan is Southland's gain

Aerospace push to aid local economy

By Gregory J. Wilcox
Staff Writer

Southern California's aerospace sector, which helped put men on the moon, create a permanent outpost in space and breach the solar system's boundary, should play a prominent role in the Bush administration's push to establish a lunar base and send a manned craft to Mars, economists and industry officials said Wednesday.

While it is too soon to guess at the local economic boost from the president's $12 billion space exploration plan, past history suggests it will be significant.

[Barkley]

11. Bush Will Lose California

Its the Economy Stupid!

California State deficits of $17 billion in 2002 and $38 billion in 2003 and up to $15 billion 2004 has forced cuts that reduced the state spending by billions of dollars.

Although the falling dollar has helped tourism and farm exports, and the war has helped the arms industry, I don't think its made up for the multi-billion losses California faced over the last 4 years.

Now Bush wants to out-do Gray Davis on immigration by granting temporary work status to 8 million undocumented people when the entire U.S. economy only produced 1000 jobs Decemeber!?!?!?

I personally have no beef with immigrants; indeed they
are the economic backbone of the state's economy. Many immigrants
are abused and oppressed people; they are entitled to
basic human rights. Bush's proposal is a cynical attempt to boost the recruits for Iraq and beyond.

However, there are many, many people in California who oppose immigrants rights. In fact, the old Prop. 187 crew (of 1994 vintage) is back; they're collecting signatures for a "Son of 187" anti immigrant ballot initiative for the March primaries or Nov. general election.

According to a Field Poll of poll sampled 929 registered voters 60% of Californians support raising the sales tax and taxes on the wealthy to balance the 2004 budget (The Orange County Register Jan 15, 2004); hardly the Bush crowd.

I could be wrong but I can't see Bush winning California in 2004.