STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 15 January (#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday January 15, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 375
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 34 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 86 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 298
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 782
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 14, 2004

Dow... 10,538.37 +111.19 (+1.07%)
Nasdaq... 2,111.13 +14.69 (+0.70%)
S&P 500... 1,130.52 +9.30 (+0.83%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.99% -0.04 (-1.04%)
Gold future... 422.00 -2.00 (-0.47%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Rhetoric versus Reality

With all of the conflicting rhetoric coming from the U.S. Treasury, the Federal Reserve, European Union and the European Central Bank, there is good reason to be confused about the near term direction for stock and bond prices, not to mention currency exchange rates. Stocks opened higher today, with government bonds neutral to slightly lower. By mid-day Treasuries moved into positive territory with the NASDAQ Composite falling back to where it opened. As I write, both stocks and bonds are higher for today’s session, along with the U.S. dollar. The dollar strength can be attributed to the comments from E.C.B. Council Member Christian Moyer who stated that, “Intervention is something that’s always available.” The European officials are essentially talking the euro down without taking any real action yet. Market participants are trying to decipher the messages from government officials and central bankers from both sides of the pond. It is most unusual to see stocks, bonds and commodities all moving higher at the same time.

<cut>

With the massive stimulus that has come from increased government spending, artificially low interest rates, and the extraction of home equity, I can understand the stock market moving higher and commodities moving higher which implies inflation. That being the case, bond prices should be moving lower with the corresponding rise in interest rates to offset inflationary expectations. So far that is not happening. I believe bonds are not breaking lower because of the coming from Japan. As Japan intervenes in the currency market, they are selling yen to buy dollars, which are then used to buy U.S. Treasury debt. For the time being they have put a floor on bond prices, but how long will this artificial demand continue? I believe the secondary cause of artificially low interest rates is the Federal Reserve endorsed bond carry trade. As long as the Federal Reserve PROMISES to keep the Fed Funds Rate at 1%, they have removed the risk for institutional investors that borrow money at 1% and invest in longer dated bonds that are yielding 4% to 5%. This is a huge set-up for a big fall somewhere down the road. Take away the foreign demand and force institutional investors to unwind their carry trade, and bond prices could drop dramatically as they did last summer.

<cut>

More Confusing Rhetoric

The one that probably bothers me the most is this so-called “strong dollar policy.” When President Clinton embarked on the strong dollar policy back in 1995 the US Dollar Index stood at 82. Roughly six years later it topped out at 125, went sideways for a year, and in just the last two years it has fallen about 30% to just about where it began in 1995. The U.S. dollar has been hammered over the last two years and on Monday we heard from Robert Nichols, a Treasury Department spokesman. According to Reuters, Mr. Nichols was asked why the dollar’s value had continued to erode and his answer was, “There’s no change in our strong dollar policy.” To me his answer really sounds like this: The sky is green! No, it’s blue. As I said, the sky is green. The sky is green because I say it is green.

<cut>

There is No Inflation!

The constant mantra from our officials at the Federal Reserve goes something like this: We can keep interest rates at forty-year lows because there is no inflation. I read it as follows: The economic recovery will be in jeopardy if interest rates rise and second, they are sending the message to the European Union that everyone must participate in re-inflating the global monetary system. If the Europeans decide to devalue the euro like most other countries are already doing with their respective currencies, all it will do is slow the decline of the dollar. If currency exchange rates move too quickly it will cause too many dislocations globally. This is why currency trends tend to remain in place for a sustained period of time, usually five to seven years. My best guess says they will have to intervene sometime in the very near future. In fact, they have already begun the process by talking the euro lower. If the euro is deliberately weakened relative to the U.S. dollar, it should be a positive for the stock market and definitely a positive for the dollar.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Is This Really A Recovery? by John Finger

Since the fall of 2003, we’ve received a mass of good news about the economy. First-time jobless claims have fallen and are consistently below the 400,000 per week threshold which is considered the dividing line between an expanding and contracting labor market. Housing starts in 2003 were at 1.8 million, a level not seen since 1986. Worker productivity has increased substantially. The unemployment rate has dropped to 5.7%. The stock market was on a tear in 2003: the S&P 500® gained 26%, while the Nasdaq tacked on 50%.

With all this good news, what’s the problem? If you’re one of the 2.7 million people who lost his job over the past three years, you’re not seeing the benefit of this recovery. The Labor Department released a very disappointing jobs picture for December, noting that the economy created only 1,000 net jobs that month. Economists had anticipated a jobs increase of 150,000. My guess is that most of those 1,000 jobs went to economists: they, along with meteorologists, are the professions where people make six figures a year for being wrong all the time. But that’s a story for another newsletter. During the final 5 months of 2003, according to Stephen Roach, only 278,000 jobs were added by non-farm businesses. That may sound okay, but nearly all of the jobs came in three areas: temporary staffing, education, and healthcare. Temporary staffing is comprised mainly of low-paying jobs, while education and healthcare are shielded from foreign competition.

<cut>

Much of the present boom is brought to you by the U.S. government: more than $1 trillion in income tax cuts and sharply increased federal spending has made its way into the economy. History shows that tax cuts do benefit an economy in the short-run. But this comes at an unsustainable price to America’s future, as our huge national debt will reach a point where it either can’t be paid (i.e., a default by the U.S. government on its obligations) or the currency will be hyper-inflated to such a point where repayment is meaningless. Total debt is now $34 trillion, or $119,442 for every man, woman and child in America. Could it be that the current economic expansion has been funded with a credit card?

more...

[modrepub]

5. Correction

Being one I can testify that most meteorologists do not make 6 figure salaries and our accuracy rate is certainly well above 50%! I personally feel most economists are like people riding rollercoasters backwards; they're great at telling everyone when things are going up or down.

[Maeve]

3. Reports due out today

These are all due out at 8:30
Retail sales for December--prior reading was 0.9% (ex-auto was .4%) and expected to come in at .6-.8% (ex-auto .4-.5%)

Consumer Price Index was -.2%, expected to rise .1-.2% Core CPI was -.1%, expecting .1%

NY Empire State Index was 37.4. Expectations divirge--anywhere from a drop (35) to a rise (44) :shrug:

And our old favorite, Initial Claims, was 353K, expected to drop to 345-350K

[Maeve]

7. Here come the results

Retail sales up .5%, less than expected
Retail sales ex-auto up .1%
Auto sales up 1.6%

U.S. WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS DOWN 11,000 TO 343,000 (that means they upped last week's by 1,000, but still a good number)
U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WEEK AVG DOWN 3,000 TO 347,500

U.S. DECEMBER CPI UP 0.2%, IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
U.S. DEC. CPI CORE RATE UP 0.1%, IN LINE WITH FORECASTS
U.S. CPI CORE RATE UP 1.3% IN 2003, LOWEST SINCE 1960
(no inflation!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/default.asp?siteid=mktw

[Frodo]

9. That retail figure (ex autos) is probably a big disappointment.

And that can be a BIG number for the market.

Everything else looked surprisingly "boring". I expected a couple "surprisingly better" and a couple "surprisingly worse" to offset for a very bumpy day.

[Frodo]

8. BIG day

No telling what's going to happen, but it won't be boring.

We also get the treasury budget figures (small potatoes by comparison) and the Phil Fed number.

There's also the uncertain impact of the Intel "better than expected, but perhaps not enough better than expected plus lower next year estimate" report, the IBM numbers AND (important to me personally) the JPMChase/BankOne merger (and potential counter offer).

[54anickel]

4. Good morning Ozy. Great wrap up and toon. Here's an article that I came

across this morning to add to the confusion. Full of contradictions

http://www.oaklandtribune.com/Stories/0,1413,82~10834~1892718,00.html

Fed says economy now stronger

WASHINGTON -- The economy was continuing to rebound as the new year began with many regions of the country reporting that retailers enjoyed a boost from a rush of last-minute holiday shopping, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.

Even the nation's beleaguered manufacturing sector showed further signs of life, and the central bank said reports from its 12 regional banks suggested the economic rebound that began in the second half of last year was gathering momentum in late December and early January. Housing and auto sales remaining strong amid scattered signs that manufacturers were beginning to rehire some of the 2.8 million workers laid off over the last three years.

snip>
The strength in sales was led by gains in high-end products, according to reports from the New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta and San Francisco districts, while sales at discount stores were coming in below expectations.

Nearly all Fed districts reproted increases in manufacturing activity in December and several noted that factory employment edged up a bit as well. This upturn has yet to register on the national unemployment figures, with the Labor Department reporting last week that factories cut an additional 26,000 workers in December.

However, economists are hoping that various signs of a rebound in manufacturing will soon translate into significant gains in factory jobs, an expectation that the Fed survey found as well.

"Manufacturers across the country generally expect" better factory conditions in the months ahead, the survey reported, noting that manufacturers had plans to boost capital spending, especially to replace outdated computer equipment.

snip>
For all of 2003, wholesale prices rose by 4 percent, the biggest annual gain since 1990, but economists said the better indicator of underlying price pressures was the much more modest 1 percent rise in the core rate of inflation.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, in a speech Tuesday, said inflation remains subdued even as the dollar has fallen by roughly 25 percent against major foreign currencies since early 2002, a view held by many private economists as well.

more....

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning Marketeers!

This is just about it for me today. Many errands need tending this morning before I get to work. And I am the sole babysitter to a cranky toddler right now.

Be well. Have fun at the Casino!

Ozymandius

[Frodo]

10. LOTS of news boils down to slight upward futures movement. But GOLD???

Gold is sitting on a support level of around $415 (what will Junker think???) and the dollar continues to improve modestly. Today could be a pivotal day.

But the economic news seemed to balance out to "nothing special" with futures markets rising only slightly on the announcements.

[JNelson6563]

11. Ah my beloved gold

I hope it drops just a bit more, so I can do a little hoarding.

The only thing I am bullish on that I'd actually buy is gold (I'm also bullish on defense stocks but would go hungry rather than invest in death).

Julie

[54anickel]

17. I'll second that!

[Frodo]

21. Gold has fallen through the support level of $415

to around $412/oz.

Next support level somewhere in the $395 range? (my chart is too tiny)

[54anickel]

30. According to this guy, was 417/418 now 412-415, or maybe 400, heh-heh

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/15/rtr1212688.html

snip>
At 10:09 a.m. EST (1509 GMT), February gold <0#GC:> was down $9.10 at $412.80 an ounce, trading from $421.00 to $411.80, taking out $417/418 which was the breakout point on the recent rise and just Wednesday had provided solid support during gold's pullback

snip>
"With currency traders and U.S. and European officials looking for a further correction in the Euro/dollar ahead of the G7 meeting in February, gold is likely to remain in a volatile mood," wrote analyst James Moore at TheBullionDesk.com. "Support should be strong between $412-$415 although a failure could lead ultimately to a test of $400."

snip>
A Reuters poll of analysts released Thursday showed an average price forecast for 2004 of $419.50 an ounce, which would mark the third straight year of double-digit gains since gold was languishing near 20-year lows in 2001.

Meanwhile, GFMS Ltd. forecast gold would make a run at $450 during the first half of this year, after a possible profit-taking pullback. The London-based commodity research and consultancy predicted gold would average $437 during the first half.

endsnip>

Hmmm, those averages for the year are a bit lower than what I've seen. I'm sticking with the 440-480 for the year.
Got a 50/50 chance ;-)

[CaptainClark23]

35. Need to change your name

To 50/504anickel!

[Frodo]

38. Close to what I said.

"Support should be strong between $412-$415 although a failure could lead ultimately to a test of $400."

Now at $408.60 and falling again (bounced off 409 briefly, but went right through that a bit ago).

$400 may be psycological barrier, but I think support is a tad lower than that. Perhaps we'll see tomorrow? We've got three medium-high numbers due out in the morning.

[54anickel]

16. Heh heh

I noticed the prophet of doom hasn't yet responded to your last post.
Who knows, he may be right, he may be wrong.
There's that 50% chance theme of the day again. :evilgrin:

[CaptainClark23]

22. Gaps

No question that part of gold and silver slippage is in connection with the adrenaline shot of morale applied by Alan Greenspin. I'm inclined to think, however, that given the gains over the past few weeks PM's are just filling some gaps, and building momentum for the next targets. I'm thinking $645-50 for gold, $6.85 for silver, both in or by Mid-Feb.
I too am taking the opportunity of this dip to buy more physical PM's.

BTW, I'm not really one for predictions, and certainly I've not enough expertise in this field to stand behind them with anyone else's money but my own, I just wanted to give Frodo someone else to track besides Junker ;-)

[54anickel]

24. Yep, buying on the dips.

I'm not one for predictions either. What I've read is that barring any crisis (such as terrorist attack or Shrub listening to Rummy's voice in his head to attack Syria) there will be ups and downs with the average price for 2004 being 440 - 480. Could see lows down to 385 and highs at 500. If it goes much higher, it will be an out of control run up like back in late 70s.

Of course I don't think these gold folks are really much better at predicting the future any more than the 50% probability theme we have running in todays thread.

[Frodo]

25. Consider yourself "faded"

The Captain is down for $645/oz in February (I'll spot you an extra two weeks).

I'll lay you 10-1 odds. What are we betting with? :-)

[CaptainClark23]

27. um...

::eying the charts, now down $12.10::

how 'bout copper?

[Frodo]

29. Chicken!

Ya can't look at one day numbers like that. Haven't you ever heard of a "dead cat bounce"??? This puppy is going to double in mere days!

I'm just channeling Junker there.

:-)

[UpInArms]

12. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.22 Change +0.19 (+0.22%)

related articles...

http://www.forbes.com/home_europe/newswire/2004/01/15/rtr1212276.html

G7 positions on dollar ahead of Florida meeting

G7 finance ministers -- from U.S., Japan, Germany, France, Britain, Italy and Canada -- last met in Dubai on Sept 20, 2003. The key passage of their communique said

"We reaffirm that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely and co-operate as appropriate. In this context we emphasise that more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable for major countries or economic areas to promote smooth and widespread adjustments in the international financial system, based on market mechanisms."

For full text of their statement then, double-click on

Since the Dubai meeting, the dollar has fallen 9.4 percent against its trade-weighted basket of currencies. This includes declines of:

--11.3 percent against the euro

--11.8 percent against the British pound

-- 7.1 percent against Japan's yen

-- 4.2 percent against Canada's dollar

http://makeashorterlink.com/?W2CD24217 (NYT)

Struggling With the Falling Dollar

Economists give several reasons for the dollar's weakness, but the chief ones are historically low American interest rates, which discourage foreign investments, and the country's ballooning trade deficits, which create unwanted dollar surpluses overseas.

"From a macroeconomic perspective, this country has been importing too much and exporting too little," Mr. Bronstein said. "People overseas are tired of taking pieces of paper with pictures of dead presidents in exchange for Lexus cars and mozzarella cheese."

http://makeashorterlink.com/?K1DD52217 (NYT)

Why Is That Dollar Bill in Your Pocket Worth Anything?

WHY is that dollar bill in your pocket worth anything? One answer is that it's valuable because it says it is. To the left of the portrait of George Washington, the dollar proclaims: "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private."

Dollar bills are "fiat" money - they are valuable because the government in power says so. People can, however, write contracts that specify payment in other currencies. If a contract specifies payment in euros, dollars will not fulfill the contract, despite what is printed on them.

and some thoughts...

imho there are quite a few things that are happening simultaneously here - there is a lot of pressure in the currency markets that are converging to make the dollar stabilize (at least in the short run) somewhere above 85 on the index - next week we have the SOTU and then the BOJ will meet again to discuss its monetary policy (for a history of the BOJ intervention, see this link: http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/12/rtr1207158.html - it's fascinating in its detail) - specifically, the finance minister is going to try to double the budgeted amount for dollar intervention in 2004/2005. So if there is going to be a "fixed" dollar index level, it should become apparent soon. The Fed has several governor's speaking (Fed officials Guynn, Hoenig, McTeer, Parry, Broaddus all speaking Thursday and Friday) and we will see if they all stay "on message" or if there is any deviation from the Greenman's words - could be rocky if anyone breathes wrong.

Thanks for the welcome back 54anickel and Maeve! It's good to be home!

Have a great day Marketeers!

[JNelson6563]

14. Great post UpInArms

No surprise here though. Glad to have your insightful additions to the thread though I must say, 54anickel was a fabulous stand-in that I hope remains with us daily too! How fortunate we are to have such great contributors on this thread.

In light to today's dollar data, it's good to know I won't need a wheel-barrow anytime soon to buy a loaf of bread. ;-)

To the return of UIA! :toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

20. Thanks Julie!

I am so glad that 54anickel has joined the market thread :D - a tremendous amount of insight and intuition is apparent in her posts - many many thanks from me to her for holding down the fort in my absence.

I, too, am glad to keep the wheelbarrow parked in the shed for the time being.



:grouphug: What a terrific bunch you all are!

[54anickel]

26. It was my pleasure. And again, welcome back. You were surely missed.

Many thanks to all the Marketeers for their warm welcome for the "sub".

:toast:

[54anickel]

36. I agree. Tuesday seemed to be a bit of a test run for stabilizing.

There was very little fluctuation from 85.5 all day. We will have to see if this afternoon levels out at 86 to 86.5 which appears to be the goal mark for the day.

Speculation on my part, but it almost appears as if they are honing their stabilization skills. ;-)

Keeping things quiet for the SOTU and possibly until the G7 pow-wow. Then again, I'm the suspicous type.

Hmmm, 85.5 put gold at around 424 for Tuesday, looks like 410-412 with the buck at 86 to 86.5 - just contemplating my moves here.
:evilgrin:

[JNelson6563]

13. Good Morning all!

Geez, this morning's numbers and blather reminds me of a Greenman report. Many words, little meaning. :-)

It is such a busy political time here in Michigan, I am still taking it all in from last night's board meeting! Caucus is Feb 7th and aside from that we are really getting busy with ufndraisers, GOTV efforts and everything you can imagine! Tonight I travel to neighboring county Dem party event. Building stronger relations with our neighboring parties etc. So I've been tied up with party busines still this morn.

Whew!

Looks like the financial markets would be a nice break for me today but one I cannot take. I'll stop in but have a speech to write for tonight and a few events I need to get things done for.

Who knew that overthrowing the government could be such fun?? :toast:

Julie

[Maeve]

15. Mixed opening

Not surprising...
Dow 10,578.37 +40.00 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,105.84 -5.29 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,131.23 +0.71 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 3.996% +0.010

[JNelson6563]

18. 9:56 Hold the Phone!!!

Dow 10,543.85 +5.48 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,098.65 -12.48 (-0.59%)
S&P 500 1,128.95 -1.57 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.013% +0.027


What happened? :shrug: Looks like a possible Dramamine day. heh heh

Julie

[Maeve]

19. And the blather sez...

"There has been a lot of talk of the market being overextended on a near-term basis, so some air is being taken out of the Nasdaq, which was up almost 50% in 2003 and has advanced an additional 5% since the beginning of January... This morning's economic news was, on balance, supportive of the expanding economy, stabilizing employment market, and low inflation..."
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 10,526.44 -11.93 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,096.32 -14.81 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,127.71 -2.81 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.017% +0.031

[Maeve]

23. 10:14 and still dropping

Dow 10,491.33 -47.04 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,091.26 -19.87 (-0.94%)
S&P 500 1,124.99 -5.53 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 4.007% +0.021

[54anickel]

28. Could be a lot of "wool" gathered by the end of the day. Poor sheep, it's

cold out this time of year, they need that fleece. :evilgrin:

[trogdor]

31. Dollar is up, stocks are down.

Anybody else notice the relationship?

Adjust for the flutuations in the dollar, and you see that stocks are flat.

[Frodo]

32. Stocks are only "flat" to people who live in Europe and invest in Euros.

Just like my international funds are "UP" even though the markets involved may actually be "down".

99% of voters who have some connection to the market do not see things from the German/Italian/French perspective. The market is up.

[Maeve]

33. 11:26 and mild improvment

Dow 10,509.78 -28.59 (-0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,093.91 -17.22 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 1,126.64 -3.88 (-0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 3.973% -0.013

[Coventina]

34. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning folks!


Today's reading is FAMILY changing to CREATIVE POWER. Here are the changing lines from FAMILY: "Don't succumb to impulses now. Seek nothing by force. Restrain such actions that are not part of the business at hand. Good fortune comes when the immediate needs of the group are met. Any attempts to further the well-being of others in a modest and humble way will be exceptionally successful."

CREATIVE POWER is one of the most positive of the hexagrams. I have rarely seen it come up. Here is a quote: "In political or business matters you will now be seen as the leader or governing force. Others will look to you for guidance and counsel. You have the opportunity to bring your personal desires into accord with the needs of society, thereby creating order and peace. You can create functions and laws and organize others with ease, and, in doing so, cause them to prosper and find happiness. WIth your example those around you will develop their higher senses. This is therefore a time of unparalleled significance."

YOWZA!!

This is such a powerful reading that somehow I doubt Ching is referencing just today's market movement.
I'll leave it up to you guys to decide.....

I predict a slightly up day for the markets.

[54anickel]

39. Whoa! Someone offer Krugman Greenman's job?

[54anickel]

37. Am I missing something on the futures vs actual chart up there?

NASDAQ futures in the 1519-1529 and actual right now in the 2088-2107?
Gotta admit, I don't usually pay attention to how they are incremented. Am I missing something?

[Maeve]

40. 12:18--rally! Stalling?

Dow 10,528.89 -9.48 (-0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,107.43 -3.70 (-0.18%)
S&P 500 1,129.82 -0.71 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 3.989% +0.003

[JNelson6563]

41. 12:19 and lookin' kinda flat

Dow 10,532.00 -6.37 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,107.82 -3.31 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,130.00 -0.52 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 3.992% +0.006

Which way will we go from here?

I'm not in on that betting pool, not today! ;-)

Julie

[Maeve]

42. 12:27 and it's rally time!

Dow 10,558.81 +20.44 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 2,113.44 +2.31 (+0.11%)
S&P 500 1,132.44 +1.92 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.000% +0.014

[Frodo]

43. Strong number from the Philadelphia Fed

38.8 on an expected 30.0 consensus.

That's a pretty strong four month movement.
9/03 10/03 11/03 12/03 01/04
14.6 28.0 25.9 32.1 38.8

[54anickel]

44. A little blurb on the dollar - hinting at a new "goal" for stabilization

The March Dollar was higher overnight as it extended Wednesday's short covering bounce, which led to a close above initial resistance marked by the 10-day moving average crossing at 86.14. However, closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.07 are needed to confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted. The daily ADX (a trend-following indicator) is turning neutral hinting that a low might be in or is near. Multiple closes below Monday's low at 85.10 would confirm a breakout below long-term support marked by the July 1996 low crossing at 85.50 and would open the door for a test of the October 1994 low crossing at 84.95 and then the October 1995 at 83.05 later this winter. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to firmer tone in early-day session trading.

Edit for clarity of my jist.

[mrsteve]

45. 2:15 numbers - slowly sinking off highs

Small drop in the indexes in the last 30 minutes. Before that, it had been a pretty steady climb since the lows at 10:30 AM.

Dow 10,560.66 +22.29 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq 2,114.89 +3.76 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,132.95 +2.43 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 3.996% +0.010

10 year is taking money in also. A little counter-intuitive on a day with up indexes, dontcha think?

[54anickel]

46. Counter-intuitive - must result from the dizziness of the constant spin

[Frodo]

47. Budget numbers in a tad worse than expected.

$16.2B deficit for the month (expected ~$13B). Very mildly bearish (not a very important figure and pretty cariable).

Haven't seen the receipt/outlay figures yet.

[spotbird]

50. Maybe someone thought "A billion here, a billon there and after a while

you're talking real money."

[mrsteve]

48. 2:25 - floating near the red line

Gains in the last hour have disappeared, and the indexes are looking to complete a near 0% gain for the day.

Dow 10,554.74 +16.37 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,111.35 +0.22 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,131.64 +1.12 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 3.971% -0.015

[Maeve]

49. 3:44 and mixed near the waterline

Looks like a day full of sound and fury, signifying nothing
Dow 10,545.26 +6.89 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,109.49 -1.64 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,130.75 +0.23 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 3.971% -0.015

[Maeve]

51. Final numbers

Dow 10,553.85 +15.48 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,109.08 -2.05 (-0.10%)
S&P 500 1,131.33 +0.81 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 3.971% -0.015

[54anickel]

52. Quick last look at the buck -

Last trade 86.62 Change +0.59 (+0.69%)

High 86.66 Low 86.02

UIA did say somewhere above 85 (this would provide for a stellar SOTU next week)

To keep the markets holding their breath, I'd bet on the 87.07 mark from that blurb up above in post 44. Of course, that would be wishful thinking on my part - looking for that hoarding opportunity.
:evilgrin:

See what the next few days bring.