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Deny and Shred
This administration, have absolutely bitten of more than they can chew, as you so nicely pointed it out. And if US have to have a Democratic president for many year to come, the PNAC "will" of destroy what is left of the international community and international LAW be in Jeopardy. If mr Bush was to attack Iran, under false pretext, as they was doing over Iraq in 2003, say just mounts away from the fact that he are out of office anyway then the next president have his hand pretty well tied togeter... And I doubt that it Will end with a party in Tehran.. If anything is for sure, the iranians are _not_ Iraqi and Will fight to the bitter end in very many cases. And the Iran population have been in a "siege" mood in many year now.. Ca since the revolution in 1979... If US get another war in the Middle east I would not be surprised that many of the country who are now "allied" with US in the area would broke free and send the american soldiers packing, or fleeing for their life...
The US missile shield, and the putting of long range radar systems in tHe Tsjekkian Republic and in Poland must be very provoked from the Russian view of thing.. I should believe that Condi Rice with all the knowledge she have on Russian history, and how the inner working in the political landscape are. Should never try to provoke Russia that way.. And if anything in history are to be learned about, is it that Russia have GOD reason to have a paranoid view of the world, specially when it come to this type of things.. This is no less than a hefty provocation to se how Russia would act.. And I would believe that in the Russian arsenal, the drawing boards with plans over what to do, if that or this happened are full of destroying radar stations in the Tsjekkick Republic and in Poland already.. And if the reason for building this type of system was to counter danger from country like North-Korea or Iran, other places in the world would be more suitable for building that type of systems.. And I am afraid that the Russian answer to all this would not be in US best interest.. Or in NATOs best interest.. We know already that Russia have used a lot more time to the long range aircraft.. Both the old venerable TU95 Bear and in less content the more modern TU160 Blackjack. Both capable of flying non-stop from bases in Russia to the US mainland. With or without nuclear weapon. And even with just ordinary Weapon both TU160 Blackjack and TU95Bear are two aircraft the US airforce and naval forces should be very afraid about... They may not be new, but they have proven to be more dangerous than many other military forces Russia have had lately.. And they are under way to modernize the whole russian military system.. After 15 year with neglect..
When it come to Iran, who both Russia and China have a lot of interest US can not do as they please every time.. Even if Russia and China was to pull back some when it come to support the iranian government.. The working friendship with both China and Russia are pretty deep been with the iranian government. The fact that the reactors are russian are just one of the cases. But I am afraid that Russia, if an american attack was coming was not just sitting there and let subject of Russia been killed.. I fear that Russia would give Iran everything equipment to defend their airspace, in a few days if US was to attack Iran.. Not just SAM missiles, which Russia have good experience with killing US aircraft with. But fighters and so on. And Iran have a pretty modern armory itself, Maybe not that advanced, but they have a lot of factory, and are not helpless Vitim's of US air force.. A Iraq was in 2003.. Long before US bombed Iraq in 2003, the Iranian armed forces was building up both knowledge and equipment to use start of the art SAM, and Surface to Sea missiles. Many of them are russian in design, but they are still dangerous.. very dangrous...
France was the bogyman when it come to Iraq. We all known about the "freedom fries" and other silly things that was not doing US no good. And the US have definitely punished France for the NO that Chirac gave the United States before the illegal war against Iraq.. But Chirac, and others maybe the last to laf, after the dust have been removed from all the lie what was before the WAR. and specially AFTER the war..
The last NIE from November last year, have to be little of a sc hock for the current administration in US.. The fact that Iran was _NOT_ pursuing a nuclear bomb, was something mr Bush, and the mob behind him was just not thinking about. The fact is that mr Bush and CO are made a enemy who the enemy was not. If US really was to fight the extremist, they should given a much more scrutiny about another Country, the Saudi-Arabian Kingdom, who have educated hound res of thousands of terrorist and extremist over the last 50 year or so.. Even today the school box of S-A are full of hatred both to Israel and to the West.. But I have not seeing US told in a stearn voice that S-A have to reform, or take the full konsequence...
I really doubt even UK would help you against Iran this time around. Mr Brown are not that happy about sending armed forces abroad I am afraid. If US was to attack Iran in any form or shape, US would be in it wherry alone.. I doubt US would not even manage to bribe some 3 world country who have no military or talking about, to "support" in name the war.. They may maybe bully some country, who are totally in the hands of US but I doubt US would fine a grand coalition to fight Iran...
Many generals in Russia, who was young offices in the Afghan war would be so happy if the russian was going to give green light to sell what Russia have to afford to Iran or other middle eastern country.. US was arming and selling Islamic extremist anything they wanted, or needed in the 1980s..Even a (then) young man named Osma Bin Laden are reported to be given a lot of hard cash from US because he was so god of bankrolling extremists... And after 1989 when the last soviet troops was leaving Afghanistan, broken after 8 year with a war they was not capable of winning. The same man was finding out that the next move was.. To send the "infidels" home packing.. But he was not capable of that, and today the not so young man, are one of the top 10 enemies of US.. The man CIA educated in terror, and was given a lot of money to go to war against the soviet occupation.. O YES many russian generals and political would be so happy to get even with US about that... But for the moment, they are not doing that.. But if Mr Putin was to give green light, you Will find a lot of hi-tech russian made weapon coming across the Irani border, to defend the Islamic Republic of Iran against the mighty US military.. And Iran as a country are not the rolling plains that is Iraq... It is a hilly country, full of places to hide and attack when the other part are not shooting...
Diclotican
Sorry my bad english, not my native language
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