STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday February 21

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday February 21, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 335
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2587 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2313 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2604
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 20, 2008

Dow... 12,427.26 +90.04 (+0.73%)
Nasdaq... 2,327.10 +20.90 (+0.91%)
S&P 500... 1,360.03 +11.25 (+0.83%)
Gold future... 937.80 +8.00 (+0.85%)
30-Year Bond 4.64% -0.01 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.92% +0.04 (+1.08%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Retail Reality Check, Again

Wall Street STILL Overreacting
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

The markets initially rallied off the retail sales report that came out last Wednesday as sales for January rose 0.3%, which was in stark contrast to the consensus expectations of a 0.3% decline. However, the underling details of the report painted a darker picture that did not justify the market's reaction. This reminds me of the market's reaction to the June chain store sales report that was released on July 12th of last year that saw a sizable rally that was completely unjustified as was shown when looking at the details of the report (Reality Unspun).

Looking at the recent underlining data for both retail sales and chain store sales shows that the markets again displayed misplaced hopes as areas of discretionary spending are weakening as consumers retrench and shift their buying habits to discount stores seeking lower prices. This can be seen when looking at retail categories such as apparel sales, department store sales, and furniture store sales, all declining at a negative year-over-year (YOY) rate and at or near recessionary levels. Of particular interest are department store sales, which have absolutely fallen off a cliff (Figure 2)! However, wholesale club stores are rising as they did heading into the 2001 recession.
.....

As mentioned above, consumers are cutting back on discretionary items while devoting more of their incomes towards essential, nondurable items like food and energy. This can be seen when looking at the ratio of durable goods industrial production (homes, autos, appliances) versus nondurable goods industrial production. The ratio typically turns down heading into recessions while its advance indicates healthy consumer spending. The ratio has been trending down for years now, with declining vehicle sales playing a large role in this decline.
.....

While consumers are cutting back spending on durable goods items, spending on nondurables remains robust. Food and beverage store sales continue to remain strong as do gasoline station sales, the two strongest areas of growth in the last week’s retail sales report. How is a retail sales report that shows declining sales growth in discretionary sectors and with its two strongest areas of growth in essentials like food and energy bullish? Yet this is what the markets rallied off of last Wednesday!

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

2. Data hint at stagflation in US

(FT) Federal Reserve policymakers have cut their forecasts for growth but marked up their estimate for inflation this year, new projections released by the US central bank revealed on Wednesday.

Minutes from the Fed's last policy meeting in January, when they cut rates by 50 basis points, showed the central tendency of the monetary policymakers' forecasts put growth at between 1.3 per cent and 2 per cent in 2008, down from between 1.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent in October. But officials raised their forecasts for inflation, with core inflation predicted to reach between 2 per cent and 2.2 per cent, up from 1.7 per cent to 1.9 per cent in October.

The minutes came as new inflation figures showed US prices rose at an unexpectedly high pace in January, raising fears that the US is experiencing at least a mild bout of stagflation.

However, the Fed continues to believe that inflation would eventually moderate and the projections imply that it will not try to bring it down too quickly.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080220/bs_ft/fto022020081637509316;_ylt=AmB4gPwjaX9tq9sGqKiaDnX2ULEF

[Ghost Dog]

3. Asian Stocks Rise Most in a Week

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks climbed the most in a week after earnings from Telstra Corp. and Tabcorp Holdings Ltd. raised optimism the region will overcome a U.S. economic slowdown.

``The U.S. is just not as important to the emerging countries and the emerging stock markets of the world as it used to be,'' Michael Gordon, global head of institutional investments at Fidelity International Ltd., which has about $300 billion in assets, said today in Seoul. ``It will be Asia that has to bail out the U.S., not the other way around.''

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a4pRuEk6CxrA&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

4. Japanese Stocks Advance After Yen Weakens; Sumitomo Metal Soars

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's stocks climbed the most in a week after the yen weakened against the dollar, boosting the value of overseas sales for companies such as Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.

Matsushita Electric, which makes half its sales outside of Japan, jumped the most in three weeks. The yen weakened against 13 of the 16 most-active currencies yesterday after accelerating U.S. inflation reduced speculation the Federal Reserve will be aggressive in lowering interest rates.

``The market is being lifted as the yen's strengthening trend has dissipated,'' said Kiyoshi Ishigane, who helps oversee $61 billion in assets at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. ``The first half of this year could be tough for company profits, but I am expecting a steep rebound in the second half.''

Inpex Holdings Inc., Japan's largest petroleum explorer, gained the most in a week after oil advanced to a record $101.32 a barrel in New York yesterday. Sumitomo Metal Mining Co. soared the most in more than 10 years after gold reached a new high.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 377.91, or 2.8 percent, close at 13,688.28. The broader Topix index rose 32.00, or 2.5 percent, to 1,334.72 as 32 of its 33 groups gained. Both benchmarks posted the biggest advance since Feb. 14.

The yen weakened against the dollar to 108.20 from 107.74 at the close of stock market trading in Tokyo yesterday. A weaker yen increases the value of Japanese companies' overseas sales when converted into local currency.

Exports rose 7.7 percent in January from a year earlier, according to a government report today, beating estimates. Shipments to Asia and Europe offset a decline in U.S. sales.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aDbtdMF.O40w&refer=japan

[Ghost Dog]

5. Sumitomo Metal Mining Soars

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Japan's biggest gold producer, climbed the most in 11 years in Tokyo trading after UBS AG said the miner may raise its profit forecast on surges in copper and gold prices.

Gold has touched a record 13 times this year and jumped to a record $945.60 an ounce yesterday. Copper for delivery in three months has jumped 23 percent since Dec. 31 in London Metal Exchange trading.

``Metals prices have risen more than expected in the fourth quarter, and we expect the company to raise earnings guidance in the near future,'' Atsushi Yamaguchi, a Tokyo-based analyst at UBS, wrote in a note to clients dated yesterday. He raised his rating on the shares to ``buy'' from ``neutral.''

Sumitomo Metal Mining soared 15 percent to close at 2,175 yen on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, its biggest gain since Dec. 18, 1997, based on closing prices. The rally was also the biggest today among the 1,945 stocks on the MSCI World Index.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a7tx6RIkKoJ4&refer=japan

[Ghost Dog]

6. Japan's Export Growth Unexpectedly Quickens to 7.7%

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's export growth unexpectedly quickened in January, as rising demand for cars and steel from China and Russia made up for falling U.S. sales.

Exports, the engine that drove almost half of the economy's expansion last quarter, rose 7.7 percent, from December's 6.9 percent gain, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 6.6 percent increase.

Shipments to Asia and Europe rose to records for the month, as growing consumer classes in China, India and Russia create new customers for exporters including Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. Exports to the U.S. fell for a fifth month amid the worst housing slump in 26 years.

``The good news is the destinations for Japan's export products have become far more diversified,'' said Jan Lambregts, head of Asia research at Rabobank International in Hong Kong. The bad news is that ``a protracted U.S. recession would be much harder to shelter from.''

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a1_alNd84FtA&refer=japan

[Ghost Dog]

7. Afghanistan sitting on a gold mine: minister

KABUL (AFP) - Afghanistan is sitting on a wealth of mineral reserves -- perhaps the richest in the region -- that offer hope for a country mired in poverty after decades of war, the mining minister says.

Significant deposits of copper, iron, gold, oil and gas, and coal -- as well as precious gems such as emeralds and rubies -- are largely untapped and still being mapped, Mohammad Ibrahim Adel told AFP.

...

Already in the pipeline is the exploitation of a massive copper deposit -- one of the biggest in the world -- about 30 kilometres (20 miles) east of Kabul.

"There has not been such a big project in the history of Afghanistan," Adel said.

A 30-year lease for the Aynak copper mine was in November offered to the China Metallurgical Group Corporation and the contract is being finalised.

"It is estimated that the Aynak deposit has more than 11 million tonnes (of copper)," he said, citing 1960s surveys by the Soviet Union and a new study by the United States Geological Survey (USGS).

"With today's prices, it contains an 88-billion-dollar deposit," he said.

...

Studies of only 10 percent of the country have discovered abundant deposits of copper, iron, zinc, lead, gold, silver, gems, salt, marble and coal, the ministry says.

The USGS estimates there are about 700 billion cubic metres of gas and 300 million tonnes of oil across several northern provinces.

A Soviet survey estimated there are more than two billion tonnes of iron reserves, the ministry says.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080221/bs_afp/afghanistanminingeconomy_080221024804;_ylt=AmHjI5tE_5yuN.2vf8yiQ.SmOrgF

[InkAddict]

16. What we wouldn't give for a piece of those Afghan resources.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3191019

From the post: Once a month, Pakistan's Defense Ministry delivers 15 to 20 pages of spreadsheets to the U.S. Embassy in Islamabad. They list costs for feeding, clothing, billeting and maintaining 80,000 to 100,000 Pakistani troops in the volatile tribal area along the Afghan border, in support of U.S. counterterrorism efforts.

No receipts are attached.

In response, the Defense Department has disbursed about $80 million monthly, or roughly $1 billion a year for the past six years, in one of the most generous U.S. military support programs worldwide. The U.S. aim has been to ensure that Pakistan remains the leading ally in combating extremism in South Asia.

Maybe combating extremism isn't really the goal, hmmmm...

[Ghost Dog]

8. Miners, Fed help push Europe shares higher

LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - European shares extended gains on Thursday, led by a rally in miners and helped by Nestle (NESN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) results while investors took heart from Federal Reserve minutes overnight.

At 1134 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index was up 1.6 percent at 1,342.7 points, as U.S. futures ticked higher, after the minutes from the Fed's latest meeting reinforced the view that the central bank could continue to cut rates to bolster economic growth.

Nestle shares rose 6 percent after the world's largest food company posted a 15.8 percent leap in 2007 net profit, defying record prices for ingredients such as milk and cocoa.

Miners were among the biggest gaining sectors by mid-morning, rising along with metal prices. Kazakhmys (KAZ.L: Quote, Profile, Research), Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Antofagasta (ANTO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) were up between 4.3 and 5.5 percent.

Banks also recovered some ground after taking a beating on almost daily news of new writedowns recently. BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 3.1 percent and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L: Quote, Profile, Research)was up 3.8 percent.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL2153705020080221?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

31. Nestlé and Reed help lift European equities

European stocks finished Thursday's session up, but off their highest levels of the day, after a weak manufacturing survey in the US took the shine off Wall Street's early gains.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 ended up 0.7 per cent to 1,330.08, with results from Reed Elsevier (NYSE:ENL) and Nestlé helping maintain a positive performance.

Frankfurt's Xetra Dax rose 0.1 per cent to 6,904.85, the CAC 40 in Paris added 1 per cent to 4,858.85 and London's FTSE 100 rose 0.7 per cent to 5,932.2.

Nestlé, the world's biggest foods group, shrugged off the rising cost of raw materials to report a full-year net profit up 15.8 pct to SFr10.649bn, driven primarily by strong growth in food and beverages. It also announced a dividend increase from SFr10.40 to SFr12.20 and a 10-for-1 share split.

Andrew Wood at Sanford C Bernstein said: "These results are well ahead of our expectations and indicate a strong end to what has been an exceptional year for Nestlé."

The Swiss company's shares rose 3.5 per cent to SFr482.50, and helped lift other food producers. France's Danone rose 0.3 per cent to EU51.89, while Norwegian food and metals conglomerate Orkla added 0.5 per cent to NKr66.70.

Anglo-Dutch publishing giant Reed Elsevier pleased the market with above-expectation earnings and a restructuring plan. Reed's Amsterdam-listed shares rose 6.6 per cent to EU12.21.

The banking sector added the most weight behind the gains. Dutch financial services group ING (NYSE:ING) remained in vogue with investors and its shares rose a further 5.4 per cent to EU23.08.

Meanwhile, BNP Paribas was buoyed by its confident outlook to 2008 following its earnings reported on Wednesday. The shares gained 3.4 per cent to EU61.69.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080221/bs_ft/fto022120081214139420;_ylt=A9G_RnnevL1H8H4BSQiyBhIF

[Ghost Dog]

37. EU cuts growth estimates, sounds gloomy note on the economy

Brussels - The European Commission warned of difficult times Thursday as it raised its inflation estimates by half a percentage point and cut growth forecasts by nearly the same amount. "We are living in a difficult moment," said Joaquin Almunia, the European Union's economic and monetary affairs commissioner.

"Europe clearly begins to feel the impact of the global headwinds in terms of lower growth and higher inflation," he added.

The latest forecasts by the EU executive predict gross domestic product (GDP) in the 27-member bloc to grow by just 2.0 per cent in 2008. This is 0.4 per cent lower than predicted by its November estimate. The GDP growth estimate for the 15-member eurozone was also cut by a similar amount, from 2.2 to 1.8 per cent.

At the same time, 2008 inflation forecasts for both the eurozone and the EU as a whole were revised up by half a percentage point, to 2.6 and 2.9 per cent respectively.

Officials in Brussels said the European economy was being adversely affected by the uncertain outlook of the global economy, which was in turn suffering from the slowdown in the US economy, soaring oil and food prices and the ongoing turmoil on the financial markets.

Almunia said the revised figures were explained by the fact that all of the fears expressed by the commission in formulating its November forecasts had materialised: "The financial turmoil is taking longer than expected", "the US slowdown is more evident" while "confidence levels have not improved, they have worsened."

Growth in Europe's economic locomotive, Germany, was revised down to 1.6 per cent in 2008, with high inflation denting consumer confidence.

The commission's latest forecasts also confirmed the widely-held belief that Italy is "the sick man of Europe", with GDP growth in Europe's fourth-largest economy now predicted to crawl at a near-flat rate of 0.7 per cent.

/... http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/187300,eu-cuts-growth-estimates-sounds-gloomy-note-on-the-economy.html

[Ghost Dog]

9. Euro= USD 1.474, GBP 0.753, CHF 1.619 and JPY 159.3 at this time

[UpInArms]

10. Today's Reports:

Feb 21 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/16
Briefing.com forecast 355K
Market expects 345K
last report 348K

Feb 21 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Jan
Briefing.com forecast 0.0%
Market expects -0.1%
last report -0.2%

Feb 21 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Feb
Briefing.com forecast -10.0
Market expects -10.0
last report -20.9

Feb 21 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/16
NA
NA
last report 1066K

[UpInArms]

13. Initial Claims in at 349,000 - last week rev'd up to 358,000 (10k upward revision)

08. U.S. continuing jobless claims up 48,000 to 2.78 mln
8:30 AM ET, Feb 21, 2008 - 6 minutes ago

09. U.S. 4-week avg. jobless claims up 10,750 to 360,500
8:30 AM ET, Feb 21, 2008 - 6 minutes ago

10. U.S. weekly jobless claims at lowest level since mid-Jan
8:30 AM ET, Feb 21, 2008 - 6 minutes ago

11. U.S. weekly initial jobless claims down 9,000 to 349,000
8:30 AM ET, Feb 21, 2008 - 7 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

14. here's some lying nonsense that makes the numbers spin gobbledy-gook

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/jobless-claims-fall-latest-week/story.aspx?guid=%7B980A47A4%2D82BC%2D41B6%2DA0F3%2DDB82FFDB624F%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 in the latest week to its lowest level in a month, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The number of initial claims in the week ending Feb. 16 fell 9,000 to 349,000. It's the lowest level since the week ended Jan. 19. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for claims to fall to 345,000. Claims in the previous week were revised to an increase of 1,000 to 358,000 compared with the initial estimate of a fall of 9,000 to 348,000. The four-week average of initial claims rose 10,750 to 360,500. A Labor Department official said that a state holiday in California may have reduced claims in the latest week. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state jobless benefits rose 48,000 to 2.78 million in the week ending Feb. 9. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 28,750 to 2.75 million.

[Hugin]

18. ...

:crazy:

[AnneD]

44. It's not crazy at all Prag....

Folks have run out of their benefits and are thus no longer counted on the unemployment rolls-problem swept under the rug. Out of site-out of mind. The cruel glitch I noticed during the BushI economic downturn.

I observed my 4th Michigan auto tag in one day yesterday. This is HISTORY REPEATING ITSELF EXACTLY. Folks from MI. came down hear for the jobs just before our economy imploded in 87. We were having an oil boom due to high prices and folks came down here like Dust Bowl Okies. That may not seem like a big thing to most folks-but it scares the shit out of me. I have noticed the RV park filled with more families (in the middle of the school year) and they are not here for medical reasons. They are also not as affluent. Shit's a stirring folks. Shit's a stirring.

[UpInArms]

48. 87 was a very baaaaad year

:scared:

[AnneD]

51. My sense is that....

this go round will be much worse. Our fundamental are so weak and we have an off the books war going on.

Duck, and remember to keep your mouth closed.

[ozymandius]

19. Thanks for compiling this UpInArms.

I massively overslept this morning. (forgot to set my alarm) But now I have a little time to do a some heavy lifting around here.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

26. I figured you were on the move

and running short on time - hopefully my world will slow down soon too

:hi:

[UpInArms]

15. U.S. Jan. leading economic indicators index falls 0.1% - 4th straight decline

01. U.S. Jan. coincident economic index rises 0.1%
10:00 AM ET, Feb 21, 2008 - 1 minute ago

02. Leading indicators post fourth straight decline in January
10:00 AM ET, Feb 21, 2008 - 1 minute ago

03. U.S. Jan. leading economic indicators index falls 0.1%
10:00 AM ET, Feb 21, 2008 - 1 minute ago

[UpInArms]

17. U.S. Feb. Philly Fed -24 vs. -20.9 in Jan. (much worse than expected)

03. U.S. Feb. Philly Fed well below consensus -10.0
10:01 AM ET, Feb 21, 2008 - 8 minutes ago

04. U.S. Feb. Philly Fed -24 vs. -20.9 in Jan.
10:01 AM ET, Feb 21, 2008 - 8 minutes ago

[UpInArms]

11. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.034 Change -0.089 (-0.12%)

US Economic Outlook and Credit Market Difficulty Warrant Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Economic_Outlook_and_Credit_1203528060267.html

Bearish outlook for the US consumer remains one of the driving forces behind a similarly pessimistic view for the domestic economy. Given worsening trends in labor data and uninspiring Retail Sales results, it remains clear that momentum remains to the downside for relevant consumer activity indicators. Such developments may be singlehandedly sufficient in justifying further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and indeed markets have clearly discounted aggressive rate reductions. Whether or not the Fed actually follows through with market predictions will very much depend on medium term developments in domestic labor and consumer spending trends.

Conditions in the credit market worsened over the past week with the cost of protecting corporate bonds from default soared to a record. Adding fuel to the already turbulent market were a few major news headlines that threaten to further disrupt the much needed rebound in confidence among lenders and borrowers. From the UK, news that the government would nationalize troubled bank Northern Rock, until a fair sale went through, calmed fears of an impending bankruptcy. However, it would also signal to the market that the government was more concerned about the state of the financial markets than they had originally let on. The other headline that played on the market was news that some of the largest bond insurers would divest their subprime branches to protect their credit rating. This would leave $580 billion in assets open to downgrades.

<snip>

Bearish outlook for the US consumer remains one of the driving forces behind a similarly pessimistic view for the domestic economy. Given worsening trends in labor data and uninspiring Retail Sales results, it remains clear that momentum remains to the downside for relevant consumer activity indicators. Such developments may be singlehandedly sufficient in justifying further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and indeed markets have clearly discounted aggressive rate reductions. Whether or not the Fed actually follows through with market predictions will very much depend on medium term developments in domestic labor and consumer spending trends.



...more...

Not Good Enough for the US Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Not_Good_Enough_for_the_1203546773522.html

It has been a very active trading day with market moving news coming from all four corners of the forex market. The US dollar was firm ahead of the NY open but reversed all of its gains by the end of the US session. The only two currencies that failed to rally against the US dollar were the lowest yielding ones which are the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc. Although consumer prices and housing numbers were stronger than expected, the dollar’s knee jerk rally quickly evaporated as the market realized that inflation was not hot enough for the Federal Reserve to reconsider their intentions of lowering interest rates. This belief was validated by the minutes from the last FOMC meeting where the Fed cut interest rates by 50bp. At the meeting, the US central bank reduced their growth forecasts and increased their forecasts for inflation and unemployment. By the end of the year, they expect the unemployment rate to rise to as high as 5.3 percent. A pessimistic tone hung over the meeting with several members noting significant risks of a downturn in the economy. They felt that the combination of sharp equity market weakness and declining house prices would crimp consumer spending going forward. As a result, interest rates are expected to remain low for some time to “counter the factors that were restraining economic growth, including the slide in housing activity and prices, the tightening in credit availability, and the drop in equity prices." Fed fund futures continue to price in a 94 percent chance that interest rates will be cut by another 50bp in March. Although it is too soon to be worried about this, it is important to not forget the Fed’s warning today that should the economy stabilize and prospects for growth improve, a “rapid reversal” of a portion of the previous easing actions may be appropriate. Housing starts rebounded but building permits fell another 3 percent to the lowest level in 16 years. Leading indicators, jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey are due for release tomorrow. We expect the dollar to continue to remain weak because consumer prices was the only release this week that had the potential to trigger a reversal in the US dollar and unfortunately the impact was minimal.

...more...

[ozymandius]

22. That chart should be required viewing.

It really explains alot without any rhetorical tricks.

[Warpy]

52. That chart says it all

The willingness to take on a mortgage expresses confidence in the future. A nearly 55% drop isn't just significant, it's staggering.

Unemployment is up, wages are absolutely flat.

It's a pity Stupid is incapable of reading a common bar chart because this one should be simple enough for even him to grasp.

[loudsue]

23. Do you know whatever happened to the Iranian Oil Bourse that was supposed to open

last week or so? Did the U.S. & Israel succeed in getting them not to do it, or is it already afoot?

K & R the SMW thread!

:kick:

[ozymandius]

25. Here's the news: This market trades in petrochemicals, not crude - yet.

Iran opens its 1st oil products bourse

Iran established its first oil products bourse Sunday in a free trade zone on the Persian Gulf Island of Kish, the country's oil ministry said.

A statement posted on the ministry's Web site said 100 tons of polyethylene consignment was traded at the market's opening on the island, which houses the offices of about 100 Iranian and foreign oil companies.

Oil and petrochemical products will be traded in Iranian Rials, as well as all other hard currencies, the statement quoted Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari as saying. About 20 brokers are already active in the market, it said.

.....

Iran has already registered for another oil bourse, in which it has said it hopes to trade oil in Euros instead of dollars, to reduce any American influence over the Islamic Republic's economy.

A bourse official, Mahdi Karbasian, told the IRNA official news agency that such an oil market would begin operating within the next year.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8US9FFO0.htm

[Ghost Dog]

46. Slouching towards Petroeurostan

It was a discreet, almost hush-hush affair, but after almost three years of stalling and endless delays it finally happened. Now more than ever, it may also signal a geoeconomic earthquake, a potentially shattering blow to US dollar hegemony.

The Iranian oil bourse - the first oil, gas and petrochemical exchange in the Islamic Republic, and the first within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) - was launched on Sunday by Iran’s Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari, flanked by Minister of Economy and Financial Affairs Davoud Danesh Ja’fari, the man who will head the exchange.

Officially called the Iranian International Petroleum Exchange (IIPE), it is widely known in Iran and the Persian Gulf as the Kish bourse, named after Kish island, a free zone (declared by the shah) in an ideal laissez faire setting: lots of condos and duty-free malls, no Khomeini mega-portraits and hordes of young honeymooners shopping for made-in-Europe home appliances.

Transactions at this early stage will be in Iran’s currency, the rial, according to Nozari, ending worldwide speculation that the bourse would start trading in euros. The Iranian ambassador to Russia, Gholam-Reza Ansari, has said that "in the future, we'll be able to use the ruble, Russia’s national currency, in our operations". He added that "Russia and Iran, two major producers of the world’s energy, should encourage oil and gas transactions in various non-dollar currencies, releasing the world from being a slave of the dollar."

Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said last week that "the ruble will de facto become one of the regional reserve currencies".

The opening of the exchange is just what the Iranians are calling the first phase. Ultimately, it is intended that it will compete directly against London’s International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), both owned by US corporations (since 2001, NYMEX has been owned by a consortium that includes BP, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley). What Iran plans to do in the long run is quite daring: to confront head-on Anglo-American energy/corporate banking domination of the international oil trade.

/... http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JB21Dj07.html

[Ghost Dog]

34. Dollar takes a pounding as US data signals recession

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The dollar came in for a pounding after a set of dismal US economic numbers suggested that the world's biggest economy may not be able to avert recession after all.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported today that its headline Philly Fed index fell to -24.0 in February from -20.9 in January. The latest reading was twice as low as economists had expected, and is now at its lowest levels since the 2001 recession. The index measures manufacturing activity in the area.

Many analysts consider it a signal of impending or even current contraction in the US economy.

"The further deterioration in the US Philly Fed activity index in February confirms that the collapse in the index last month was not statistical noise," said Paul Ashworth at at Capital Economics.

"As far as this indicator is concerned, a recession, and a severe one at that, is already underway," he added.

It was not surprising then that the dollar fell sharply after the news, with the euro coming close to the 1.48 usd level, its highest since Feb 5.

The bad news for the dollar did not stop there. Also out today, the index of leading US indicators fell by 0.1 pct month-on-month in January. The drop was the fourth in a row and was driven by losses in the equity market and continued signs of weakness in housing sector.

While not alarming at first glance, the six-month change in the index showed a steep drop and firmly pointed to a recession, added Ashworth at Capital Economics.

"It is a fairly reliable indicator as well, successfully predicting every recession since 1960 and only throwing up one false-positive back in 1967," he said.

Elsewhere, the pound got a boost from strong UK retail sales data, which suggested UK high street activity is much more buoyant than previously thought.

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=a39cdd86-d595-410c-9eb0-c3bdc929103e

[feminazi]

42. hey, UIA

what's "PCE" on the chart above?

thanks

[UpInArms]

47. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)

A measure of price changes in consumer goods and services. Personal consumption expenditures consist of the actual and imputed expenditures of households; the measure includes data pertaining to durables, non-durables and services. It is essentially a measure of goods and services targeted toward individuals and consumed by individuals.

Also referred to as "consumption."

Similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), PCE is a report (actually a part of the personal income report) put out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Department of Commerce.

There are two broad indexes of consumer prices in the United States: the CPI and the Chain Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCEPI). They are similar in many respects, but there are some important differences that can lead to large gaps between CPI and PCEPI inflation rates. The PCEPI uses a chain index, which takes consumers' changing consumption due to prices into account; the CPI uses a fixed basket of goods with weightings that do not change over time.

The PCE is a fairly predictable report that has little impact on the markets.

from: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pce.asp

[UpInArms]

12. Oil near $100 after record close

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080221/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices

VIENNA, Austria - Oil prices held near $100 a barrel Thursday after hitting a record overnight as investors poured more cash into crude and other commodities as a hedge against inflation.

Oil futures on Wednesday pushed briefly past $101 a barrel after the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth this year, convincing energy investors that the central bank will slash interest rates further.

On Thursday, light, sweet crude for April delivery opened above $100 but slipped by 42 cents to trade at $99.28 a barrel by noon European electronic trading. It was unchanged Wednesday at $99.70 a barrel.

"Investors are going into commodities for a safe haven, because they think commodities may perform better than equities and also may be hedges against inflation," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.

Lower interest rates can help the economy but tend to weaken the dollar, encouraging investors to shift funds into hard assets like gold or oil as a safeguard against inflation. After oil rallied above $100 a barrel, precious metals such as gold and silver also hit records.

...more...

[ozymandius]

20. Credit crisis hits Main Street

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- When Wilkes-Barre Mayor Thomas Leighton hears about the troubles afflicting bond insurer Ambac Financial Group, he worries whether his Pennsylvania city can renovate a blighted park or repair the sewer system.

Wilkes-Barre, which suffers from a weak BBB credit rating, depends on bond insurance to issue municipal bonds at favorable rates. If Ambac were to lose its AAA rating and its credibility, it could mean higher taxes, fewer services and lost jobs for the people of Wilkes-Barre.

"Without affordable funding, projects don't get built, streets don't get repaved," Leighton said. "It affects the people driving on those roads and the people paving those roads."

The credit crisis that began in the subprime mortgage market last year has now spread to municipal bonds. Governments and public authorities face steep increases in borrowing costs because investors are losing confidence in the credit markets and the companies that insure the debt.
.....

This lack of faith in the bond insurers is wreaking particular havoc on smaller and weaker municipalities. Without trustworthy insurance, these governments must pay higher interest rates to lure investors. It could mean the difference between paying 4.5% on a bond backed by a solid insurer and 5.3% on a bond with no insurance, said John Mousseau, portfolio manager for Cumberland Advisors, a Vineland, N.J.-based money manager. That translates into an additional $700,000 in annual borrowing costs on a $100 million bond.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/20/news/companies/bondhitmain/index.htm?postversion=2008022110

[ozymandius]

21. Stocks Cling to Gains After Data

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street held on to modest gains Thursday as traders digested another round of reports that indicate the U.S. economy continues to weaken.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's February manufacturing index was much lower than expected. Meanwhile, the Conference Board's gauge of leading economic indicators for January, used to predict which direction the economy is headed, posted its fourth straight drop.

Investors had hoped the data would upbeat enough to reassure them that the economy isn't falling into recession, yet still show enough weakness to motivate the Federal Reserve to implement further rate cuts when it meets March 18.

Traders are already pricing in another interest rate cut -- perhaps by up to half a percentage point -- after minutes from the Fed's last policy-setting meeting indicated central bankers will remain vigilant about the economy. The Fed's own forecast was for slower growth and continued risks to the economy from housing and credit markets.
.....

The markets had little reaction to a Labor Department report that showed the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week. However, claims lasting more than one week rose, suggesting idled workers are staying unemployed longer.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080221/wall_street.html

[ozymandius]

24. The red specter cometh.

11:20
Dow 12,371.57 Down 55.69 (0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,326.27 Down 0.83 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,355.56 Down 4.47 (0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 3.7610% Down 0.1560
NYSE Volume 1,126,134,500
Nasdaq Volume 762,409,190

[Roland99]

27. 12:17pm - Not much else has changed...but...Gold is over $950/oz

Dow 12,373.61 -53.65
Nasdaq 2,318.09 -9.01
S&P 500 1,352.72 -7.31
Oil $99.55 $-0.15
10 YR 3.78% -0.14
Gold $956.90 $19.10

[JNelson6563]

28. Really amazing isn't it?

No end in sight either. Zowie!

Julie

[AnneD]

53. Makes that .....

little pittance I bought look even better. I think that proportionately-silver will start to catch up. Every extra unaccounted buck I have gotten lately has gone into tangibles.

I take a traditional view that it will keep up with inflation-which is what I want right now. It does not earn above inflation-stocks and other investments have historically done that. I am waiting for stocks to shake out a lot more before I tread there for a while.

[ozymandius]

29. Dag nabbit! Don't bulls know that we should be happy about the economy going to hell?

1:05
Dow 12,342.35 Down 84.91 (0.68%)
Nasdaq 2,316.77 Down 10.33 (0.44%)
S&P 500 1,350.93 Down 9.10 (0.67%)
10-Yr Bond 3.7800% Down 0.1370
NYSE Volume 1,815,264,620
Nasdaq Volume 1,165,789,250

1:00 pm : A short-lived recovery attempt fizzles as the major indices fall back toward their lows. The energy sector (-1.7%) is back on the decline in response to a steep drop in crude prices (-2.0% to $98.13).

Microsoft (MSFT 28.20, -0.02) announced earlier this session a set of changes to its technology and business practices that will attempt to increase the openness of its product and increase interoperability. The company also said these changes will provide more opportunity and choice for developers, partners, customers and competitors. After the announcement, shares of Microsoft drifted to the unchanged mark, after being up as much as 2.6%. According to reports, the European Union will still go ahead with its antitrust case against Microsoft.DJ30 -79.79 NASDAQ -9.22 SP500 -8.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1586/1174/1.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1861/1157/649 mln

12:30 pm : The major indices take out fresh session lows as financials (-0.6%) and tech (-0.2%) fall to their worst levels of the session. Only telecom (+0.5%) remains in the green.

Commodities are faring better, with a gain of 0.6%. Another strong session for gold (+2.0% to $956.00) is helping to offset the slight 0.3% decline in crude oil.DJ30 -75.31 NASDAQ -9.23 SP500 -7.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1556/1190/1.03 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1828/1173/584 mln

[ozymandius]

30. Hat Tip to Sabra for this story just posted in LBN.

Next Mega-Credit Problem Looming?

(CBS) An economy already reeling from the sub-prime mortgage mess could be in for a big hit from another type of financial instrument, experts warn.

They say possible problems in the gargantuan "credit default swap" market could cause credit-tightening and interest rate-hiking ripple effects, making it harder for consumers and companies alike to obtain credit.

CBS News correspondent Kelly Wallace explains that credit default swaps constitute a shadow financial system, out of sight and unregulated, that greases the wheels of business.

The swaps are a form of insurance, Wallace observes, with "big players -- banks, pension and hedge funds -- engaging in a high-stakes crap-shoot, trying to protect themselves if companies fail."

"This is a big one," cautions Harvard Economics Professor Kenneth Rogoff. "If this one got into trouble, it would be a big problem."

Wallace points out that the market for the exotic financial instruments has leaped, by some measures, from $1 trillion to $45 trillion -- about twice the size of the entire United States stock market.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/21/earlyshow/living/money/main3856688.shtml

[Karenina]

45. Ozy, can you help me out here?

Every day a new scam revealed and added to the alphabet soup you can't strain with a SIV. Now it's CDS. Are THESE a part of the notorious "derivatives?" For some reason, I have the idea that there is "notational value" on 10X this amount, which of course is brazillions more money than exists in the world. :crazy:

Meanwhile, I went on a half hour search, attempting to find a link to share with you... It seems to have been scrubbed. Perhaps one with better search skills than I can find it. Mittlerweile, mach ich Fingerarbeit.

WEEKEND EDITION
The Secret Stock Market

'Dark pools' and other new-age exchanges rewrite the rules, under the radar

By David Weidner, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:29 AM ET May 14, 2007

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)-- Fourteen floors above Seventh Avenue, in an office more than a mile fron the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, a trumpet sounds reveille over a loudspeaker- Liquidnet Holdings Inc., an alternative trading system used by institutions, has just executed a block trader of a million shares or more.

Unlike the bulk trading of stocks, this trade was made anonymously and was executed outside of the market where retail investors and institutions meet. And unlike a trade on the floor of the NYSE, no one will ever know who put a million shares up for sale and who just bought them.

<snip>

These so-called alternative trading systems are propagating rapidly, are often labeled as "dark pools" because of their nebulous and murky nature. Estimated to handle about 1 of 10 shares traded each day in the U.S., dark pools are meeting a need of institutions to grab or dump stock quietly-- and anonymously.

In the harsh light of a public marketplace like the floor of the NYSE. an institution trying to pull off a massive trade runs the risk of making a big slash that will move the market. But in a DARK POOL, a big fish can jump without so much as a ripple.

[UpInArms]

49. here's your link, Karenina

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/secret-stock-market-upstart-systems/story.aspx?guid=%7B11EB6EC9-6D71-43C9-ADD2-59C6B9E3C5D1%7D&print=true&dist=printTop

Shades of murkiness
Players in alternative exchanges

DARK POOLS Liquidity Ping, VortEx, PositNow, Continuous Cross Buyers and sellers are matched anonymously


CALL MARKETS
Opening Cross,
Posit Match Trades executed at market prices but done anonymously

NEGOTIATION POOLS
Liquidnet, BIDS Buyer contacts and bargains with seller

I definitely get a bad feeling reading this.

Thanks (I think)

[Karenina]

50. Thanx much, UIA!

When I first ran across it I was erraaa... duh, like "HÄ?" PRINT THIS OUT! What I went through to get the whole article on hard copy, you donevenwannaknow. Then again I be a lil'o'lady Luddite... Ain't got the pot to piss in but LOVE my SMW. Beats the hell out of "The Bold and the Beautiful!" :silly:

[AnneD]

32. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. This is a long post and the second time I have had to post it:grr: It is a full moon-no doubt about it.

I am looking into my crystal ball here and predict that Obama will sweep Texas. My crystal ball are aided by my observation.

1) The Clinton campaign doesn't seem to be organized. It is almost like they didn't realize the threat and didn't think Obama would make it this far. We can vote early now and at the polling site I see plenty of Obama signs but no Clinton signs-and this is a BIG polling site. I have seen an Obama ad on my morning station every day this week-nothing for Clinton.

2)Iraq. We have some of the largest military facilities in the country here in Texas (Ft Bliss, Ft Hood, Ft Sam Houston-medical). It is ok to admit you made a mistake (esp. if one was lied to in the first place). To not admit you made a mistake is flat out pig headed. The last pig headed person we had here was a gov. and we had enough sense not to give our gov. too much power. Ann Richards had left things in good shape so he couldn't screw up too badly before he went on to be President. We take some comfort in the fact that thanks to Bush, Cheney, and Rove-the GOP will be wondering in the political desert for another 40 years. All the good will that Reagan built up (after Nixon) has been pissed away by Dubya. Clinton's pig headedness reminds us that we don't want that in a leader ever again.

3)NAFTA. Now we love the Big Dawg, but we have long memories about this one. We were one of the first states to lose our manufacturing base (remember-we have a long border with Mexico). Geography made it easy for companies here to send our jobs across the river. We are continually reminded of this. The latest, the allowing of truck from Mexico into Texas and Gov. Good hair's land grab to build super toll roads from the border through Texas. Our local citizen will be put at risk from ill inspected trucks barreling though the state. We live next door to Mexico and we know exactly what this pig in a poke means. We probably tolerate illegals better here than most states because of a shared history-but enough is enough. Oh and by the way-I don't think it is any accident that one of Obama's slogans is 'Yes We Can'. It is a powerful Hispanic theme for unionizing and immigration marches-Si se puede (Yes We Can).

So there you have it-my call on it. Unless a scad of GOP vote in the DEM primary for Hillary-Obama will win hands down. The most exciting part...this primary is breaking all kinds of records and it is running about 4-1 DEM's.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Roland99]

33. 1:16pm - Dow hits negative triple digits...

Dow 12,314.67 -112.59
Nasdaq 2,311.96 -15.14
S&P 500 1,347.75 -12.28
Oil $98.73 $-0.97
10 YR 3.77% -0.15
Gold $953.50 $15.70

[ozymandius]

36. Find a happy place! Find a happy place!

[Hugin]

39. ~13:40 ET: Which brings us to today's musical selection... "We'll Meet Again".

Index Last Change % change
• DJIA 12306.77 -120.49 -0.97%
• NASDAQ 2313.65 -13.45 -0.58%
• S&P 500 1347.77 -12.26 -0.90%


"We'll Meet Again" -- Written by Ross Parker and Hughie Charles

"We'll meet again, don't know where, don't know when
But I'm sure we'll meet again some sunny day
Keep smiling through, just the way you used to do
Till the blue skies chase the dark clouds far away

Now, won't you please say "Hello" to the folks that I know
Tell 'em it won't be long
'cause they'd be happy to know that when you saw me go
I was singing this song

We'll meet again, don't know where, don't know when
But I'm sure we'll meet again some sunny day."

A.K.A The Dr. Strangelove theme song. ;)

[Roland99]

40. Now down 130. Oil down $2.30, Wholesale Gas down over $0.09

[AnneD]

54. Gas may be down...

at the source but between the refinery accident in West Texas and the back log of tankers at the Port of Houston-gas will more than likely spike up.

[Roland99]

56. Wholesale gas has rocketed up almost $0.30 in the last couple of weeks.

Retail here did the same.

[TalkingDog]

43. The financial equivalent of "hairlippin' ever'body on Bear Creek"

YeeeeHAWWWWWW!!!!!

[AnneD]

62. Mom always said.....

even if it hair lips the govenor...I never got the gist of that-it was just funny.

[TalkingDog]

64. by the time I realized I shoulda spelled it harelip I was stuck in traffic....

storms make me goofy.

[spotbird]

35. The US Embassy in Belgrade

is under siege. It looks bad.

CNN just reported that the Embassy is vacant, but these people really hate us.

[ozymandius]

38. Serbs attack US embassy in Belgrade

11 minutes ago

Serb demonstrators have broken into the US embassy in Belgrade at the end of a mass protest against Kosovo's independence.

No-one was injured as the building was closed and evacuated. But it was not under police guard and protestors smashed their way into the building before starting fires and wrecking furniture.

The Serbs are angry over US support for the new nation of Kosovo and earlier 150,000 people had taken part in a protest rally in the city centre.

http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gZ5vQceSgM3i7uOeK1SlEYMnubRQ

[ozymandius]

41. Do you have something to share about this observation?

from Naked Capitalism

I received a surprising e-mail from an investor on a rumor he heard from a well-placed source. He was a bit incredulous as to what he was told, and I am skeptical too. Nevertheless, I thought it would be worth posting in case anyone else had heard something along these lines.

His message:

I had a conversation today with someone who is friendly with someone with access to the monolines, and he suggested that the path out of the current situation for the monolines was, assuming they did a split into a muni book and structured book, that the capital requirements for the muni only book would be lowered dramatically by the rating agencies and that this would free up a $10B+ amount of capital to support the structured book. This was, I believe, informed speculation on his part.

My reaction to it was that I had trouble believing that the rating agencies would cut the capital requirements for the muni business that much, despite the good loss record, given that they were revamping their models to indicate that substantially more capital was needed in the business as a whole. But I’m beginning to wonder whether this might actually be “the plan.” I thought Dinallo’s reaction to Ackman’s proposal was a little curious, since I think his plan or a variant of it is the most viable path to get some capital into the business while retaining the muni business as a continuing franchise and delivering as much economic value as possible to the SF policy holders, and it is a trade the SF policy holders might actually do if they didn’t have to put up much or any capital themselves. When Dinallo said it wouldn’t work because it doesn’t provide a AAA rating for the SF side of the house, I thought, what is he smoking – how much capital is going to be needed to really do that – there is no way they can raise that much. But perhaps this change in the muni reserve requirement is the path to maintaining the AAA fiction that the politicians are trying to orchestrate – the rating agencies “discover” that the muni biz has few defaults, suddenly realize it can be AAA with substantially less capital and release that capital for the benefit of the SF policy holders.

It seems to me that this flies in the face of a lot of history of what has been viewed as the appropriate capital levels for the muni business and against the rating agencies’ newfound religion that these entities were undercapitalized.

This frankly makes no sense. If the capital (technically, reserves, that's the name for the cushion at the insurance subsidiary level) is insufficient for the combined entities, merely splitting them cannot suddenly make things better. In fact, the boundary condition is that the reserves needed to properly capitalize the combined book of risks is less than or equal to the reserves needed to insure them separately.

But recall what we said early on in this mess:

The mistake is believing, as we perhaps have too much, that the rating agency saber rattling means they have the will to downgrade. They don't. The very last thing they want to do is be accused of causing The End of the Financial World as We Know It.

The rating agencies would welcome any excuse not to downgrade the bond guarantors. But this ruse seems too much of a reversal for them to pull off without destroying what little credibility they have left. It would make crystal clear that any claim of independence and objectivity is a complete sham.

[Roland99]

55. Considering there has already been some downgrading (FGIC, for example)...

I don't think they'll refrain from further downgrades. Something will eventually force their hands.'

[Roland99]

57. At the close... On a gurney.

Dow 12,284.30 -142.96
Nasdaq 2,299.78 -27.32
S&P 500 1,342.53 -17.50
Oil $98.23 $-1.47
10 YR 3.78% -0.13
Gold $948.80 $11.00

[UpInArms]

59. some blather and a question

4:20 pm : The major indices opened higher Thursday morning, but stocks were undercut by a drop in the Philadelphia Manufacturing Index. The news weighed on investors despite reports of a drop in weekly jobless claims and news that leading economic indicators were in-line with expectations.

The Philadelphia Manufacturing Index fell to a -24, indicating a sharp contraction in the region's manufacturing activity. Economists had anticipated a reading of -10, a less pronounced contraction. Last month the reading came in at -20.9.

Jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 16 fell 9,000 to 349,000. The results were in-step with the consensus forecast. Notably, jobless claims continue to trend below levels typically associated with a recession.

Leading economic indicators for January declined 0.1%. That was in-line with the consensus estimate.

After reaching record levels yesterday, oil prices today declined more than $2.29, or 2.3%, to $97.41 per barrel. The energy sector (-2.1%) retreated alongside oil and finished as the day's main laggard. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced supplies for the week ending Feb. 16 were higher than anticipated, marking the sixth week of inventory builds.

All ten of the major economic sectors finished in negative territory.

Technology stocks (-1.0%) were in focus today, but the sector was only able to slightly outperform the broader market. Microsoft (MSFT 28.10, -0.12) announced it is increasing the openness of its products as part of an effort to enhance interoperability. Microsoft's shares traded higher in the early going, up as much as 2.6%, as market participants anxiously awaited news from the industry bellwether. Skeptics question whether the move will be enough to gain the favor of European regulators. Microsoft trended lower after the announcement, weighing on the broader market.

On the other hand, Canadian company Research In Motion (RIMM 106.69, +8.78) traded higher after increasing its outlook for net subscribers in the fourth quarter. The company reiterated its earnings guidance for the fourth quarter, forecasting profits between $0.66 and $0.70 per share.

After falling nearly 8% during the previous two sessions, telecom (-0.1%) finished the day as a relative leader. AT&T (T 34.47, +0.11) and Verizon (VZ 35.36, +0.12) recovered slightly after previously seeing steep declines as investors feared the start of a pricing war.

After spending the morning in positive territory, the major indices finished more than 1% lower, near their worst levels of the session. From the session's high to its close, the Dow declined 1.8%, the Nasdaq slipped 2.3%, and the S&P fell 1.9%. DJ30 -142.96 NASDAQ -27.32 NQ100 -1.2% R2K -1.9% SP400 -1.3% SP500 -17.50 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2038/863/2.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2304/822/1.42 bln

since they don't seem to be acknowledging that the number was revised upward last week to 358,000 and are ignoring the fact that this week's number will also probably be revised upward - what exactly is that magic number that is associated with a recession?

[Roland99]

60. 500,00?

*shrug*

Whatever they want, really.


I tell ya, I've never seen such fear to call something for what it is than in the last few years. Is it a civil war in Iraq? Is it a recession? Is it illegal?

[AnneD]

61. Can we...

impeach?

I have never seen a bigger collection (and excuse my blunt language) of pussies in all my life. No spines what so ever. It is truly embarassing.

[ozymandius]

63. Do you recall the move to make fast food assembly a 'manufacturing' sector?

I bring that up because the blather authors measure data according to the *official* record. So I'll say that number can be whatever they say it is. If recessionary rates of unemployment -or underemployment- were a static rates, we'd heard of it by now.

edit for nasty spelling errors

[UpInArms]

70. 2004

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/20/politics/main601336.shtml

(CBS) Manufacturing jobs making things like airplane engines, cars and farm equipment are disappearing from the American economy.

Or are they? According to a White House report, new manufacturing jobs might be as close as your nearest drive-thru.

The annual Economic Report of the President has already stirred controversy by suggesting the loss of U.S. jobs overseas might be beneficial, and predicting that a whopping 2.6 million jobs will be created in the country this year.

As first reported by The New York Times, the fast food issue is taken up on page 73 of the lengthy report in a special box headlined "What is manufacturing?"

"The definition of a manufactured product," the box reads, "is not straightforward."

"When a fast-food restaurant sells a hamburger, for example, is it providing a 'service' or is it combining inputs to 'manufacture' a product?" it asks.

...more...

[Roland99]

58. House-Swapping Trend Emerges

http://www.consumeraffairs.com/news04/2008/01/house_swapping.html

If you've been trying to sell your house for over a year now, you should pay attention to this story.

Instead of relying on Realtors, free giveaways and other gimmicks to get some traffic into your house, how about swapping your house with someone who may be in the market to sell a house that you could see yourself moving into?

It's doing business the old-fashioned way: bartering, except that new technology now puts you closer to achieving this American dream. And more than 16,000 people around the country are apparently roped in to this trend, according to industry estimates.

As the real estate market deteriorated over the last two years with buyers developing cold feet, web-savvy entrepreneurs sensed an opportunity. Close to half a dozen websites have now cropped up to cater to this market.

[Roland99]

71. The Next Slum?

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime



yikes!

[citizen snips]

65. Microsoft Opens Up, EU Is Skeptical

REDMOND, Wash. (AP) -- Microsoft Corp. said Thursday it will share more information about its products and technology in an effort to make it work better with rivals' software and meet the demands of antitrust regulators in Europe.

European Union regulators, however, expressed skepticism, saying the software maker did not address monopoly abuse in the past or allegations it seeks to undercut rivals by bundling Internet Explorer with the Windows operating system.

Microsoft said it is expanding access outside software developers have to information about the way its programs work. The software maker said it will give away documentation and computer code needed to make outside applications work together with Office, Windows and others. In the past, Microsoft charged for this information.

The company will still charge a fee to companies that sell software built using this information. But Chief Software Architect Ray Ozzie described the fees as "low royalty rates."

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080221/microsoft_eu.html

[citizen snips]

66. SunTrust Falls on Analyst Downgrade

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of SunTrust Banks Inc. fell Thursday after Oppenheimer & Co. cut its rating on the regional bank Wednesday night.

Shares of SunTrust fell $3.19, or almost 5 percent, to $60.79.

Oppenheimer analyst Jennifer Thompson cut her rating on SunTrust to "Underperform" from "Perform," saying it is overvalued and is unlikely to be acquired in the next two years.

Thompson said the stock is likely overvalued because it is perceived as a takeover target for another bank, but said it should instead be valued on a standalone basis.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080221/suntrust_mover.html?.v=2

[citizen snips]

67. Sector Roundup: Hospitals, Chips

Among the sector activity stories for Thursday, Feb. 21, from AP Financial News:

NEW YORK (AP) -- Psychiatric Solutions Inc. fell to a new annual low Thursday after its first-quarter forecast came in below analyst estimates, and other hospital and health facility operators declined as well on somewhat disappointing earnings.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Chip shares defied the broader market's downward trend Thursday as Analog Devices Inc. and Triquint Semiconductor Inc. said they were optimistic about future profit.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Chinese Internet companies traded mixed Thursday, with NetEase.com Inc.'s stock rising after the company said its fourth-quarter profit beat analysts' expectations.

more...
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080221/sector_roundup_hospitals.html?.v=1

[citizen snips]

68. Dissident Investor Increases NYT Stake

NEW YORK (AP) -- An investment firm seeking board seats on The New York Times Co. disclosed Thursday that it has increased its stake in the company again, to 15.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the Times also filed a preliminary proxy statement Thursday that didn't include the four candidates being proposed by Harbinger Capital.

Times spokeswoman Catherine Mathis said the Harbinger candidates were still under consideration, but that the company believes its current slate is "very strong." The company will file its final proxy statement later for its annual shareholder meeting, which is scheduled to be held April 22.

Harbinger disclosed in late January that it had accumulated about 5 percent of the Times' Class A shares and was working in conjunction with a New York University marketing professor named Scott Galloway to propose four candidates for the Times board.

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[citizen snips]

69. Money Funds Rose in Latest Week

NEW YORK (AP) -- Total money market mutual fund assets rose by $20.86 billion to $3.408 trillion for the week, the Investment Company Institute said Thursday.

Assets of the nation's retail money market mutual funds rose by $9.75 billion in the latest week to $1.233 trillion.

Assets of taxable money market funds in the retail category rose by $10.74 billion to $941.51 billion for the week ended Wednesday, the Washington-based mutual fund trade group said. Tax-exempt fund assets fell by $988 million to $291.69 billion.

Assets of institutional money market funds rose by $11.11 billion to $2.175 trillion for the same period. Among institutional funds, taxable money market fund assets rose by $19.76 billion to $1.999 trillion; assets of tax-exempt funds fell by $8.65 billion to $176.30 billion.

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