Source:
NYTWASHINGTON — The International Atomic Energy Agency described for the first time on Friday the evidence it has shown to Iran that strongly suggests the country had experimented with technologies to manufacture a nuclear weapon, but reported that Iranian officials had dismissed the documents as “baseless and fabricated.”
The exchange was contained in an 11-page report in which the agency painted a mixed picture of Iran’s activities, and confirmed that Iran had begun to deploy a new generation of machinery to enrich uranium. The report, prepared by Mohamed ElBaradei, the director general of the agency, said Iranian officials had finally begun to answer a number of longstanding questions about its nuclear activities.
But officials with the United Nations agency said Iran had refused to deal with the evidence that served as the basis for American charges that Iran had tried to design a weapon. Much of it was contained in a laptop computer slipped out of the country by an Iranian technician four years ago and obtained by German and American intelligence agencies.
A National Intelligence Estimate published in early December by American intelligence agencies concluded, to the surprise of many in the White House, that Iran had suspended its work on a weapons design in late 2003, apparently in response to growing international pressure, adding that it was not clear whether the work had resumed.
Read more:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/23/washington/23nuke.html?_r=1&ref=washington&oref=slogin
Intelligence on Iran Still Lacking ~snip~
Sources of U.S. Intelligence on Iran
Suspicions of Tehran’s nuclear intentions and its regional actions in Iraq—and more recently, Afghanistan—have prompted the United States to step up its efforts to gather intelligence on Iran. In northern Iraq, U.S. forces have confiscated documents and detained Iranian operatives. In a September 2007 interview, Maj. Gen. Kevin J. Bergner, a spokesman for Multi-National Force-Iraq, said six operatives with links to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Quds Force were arrested in 2007, though two were later released (LAT). Coalition officials have said Quds fighters supplied Iraqi militias with lethal roadside bombs for use against American forces. The munitions include mortars, rocket-propelled grenades, and armor-piercing explosive devices, called explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), all bearing serial numbers that U.S. officials claim link them to Tehran. The latest intercept came in September 2007, when the Pentagon announced the capture a suspected weapons smuggler, Mahmudi Farhadi, in Iraq’s Kurdish region. U.S. officials say Farhadi was responsible for the cross border movement of weapons, people, and money from Iran into northern Iraq for over a decade. American officials also say they have found evidence of Iran supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan, though intelligence officials acknowledge the connections there are less conclusive. Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell tells CFR.org the Iranian links to Afghanistan are simply “compelling,” while evidence linking the regime to violence in Iraq is “overwhelming.” Iranian officials deny both accusations.
“I think it’s fair to say there are major gaps in knowledge. There’s definitely a role from Iran, but I thinks it’s been overstated.”–Paul R. Pillar, a career CIA officer and professor of security studies at Georgetown University.
~snip~
The United States has in the past collected intelligence on Iran from various exile organizations, including the Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK), an Iranian opposition group that was once aligned with Saddam Hussein’s regime and remains a designated terrorist organization by the State Department. Its ideology used to blend Marxism with Islamism but in recent years has dropped its more radical Marxist rhetoric. Perhaps the MEK’s greatest claim to fame was its discovery of clandestine enrichment activity at Natanz in 2002. Shortly thereafter, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) pressed Iran to open the facility up to international inspectors. The U.S.-based Iranian expatriate community and MEK also provided useful intelligence on the existence of Arak, a heavy-water research reactor in Iran. With the State Department now having a more pronounced role over Iran policy, some experts expect Washington to work less closely with Iranian exile groups like the MEK. Paul R. Pillar, a career CIA officer and professor of security studies at Georgetown University, says it’s wise to remain skeptical of expatriate groups. “Iran has its Chalabis, too,” Pillar says. Ahmed Chalabi, briefly a deputy Iraqi prime minister after Saddam Hussein’s ouster, is widely criticized for providing faulty intelligence to the United States about Iraq’s weapons programs and exaggerating his own ability to win support inside Iraq. “There are some lessons to be drawn from having your intelligence coming from some quarters and not others,” Pillar concludes. Experts also say there is a greater willingness to meet and talk with high-ranking Iranians and organize cultural exchanges. A visit to the United States in 2006 by former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami may foreshadow more such unofficial visits. More recently, Bush administration officials, including U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, have pushed for a diplomatic approach to containment
more:
http://www.cfr.org/publication/12721/
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
