Preliminary resilts from Spain election show PSOE victory

[Doctor Cynic]

Source: Ministerio del Interior (Spain)

Number of seats: 350
2004 Result:
POSE - 42.6% (168 seats)
PP - 37.7% (148 seats)

Exit poll from CUATRO/SER:

PSOE - 44.5% (168-173 seats)
PP - 37.5% (145-149 seats)

Exit poll from A3/O.CERO:

PSOE - 43.3% (163-166 seats)
PP - 38.0% (149-152 seats)

Exit poll from TVE/FORTA:

PSOE - 45.0% (172-176 seats)
PP - 38.6% (148-152 seats)

Exit poll from TELECINCO:

PSOE - 44.9% (172-178 seats)
PP - 36.9% (142-147 seats)

Read more: http://www.generales2008.mir.es/99CG/FTOP.htm

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Sorry about the unconventional way I'm posting this, but those are real votes being tabulated.

[Warren Stupidity]

1. Great news!

But shouldn't we be horrified by popularly elected democratic socialist governments? Who will protect the wealthy?

[msongs]

2. the catholic church will have to postpone it's new inquisition nt

[Robbien]

3. Am I reading it wrong? The poll numbers say the PSOE will retain their 2004 standings

does it not?

[Pab Sungenis]

4. More than that

Three of the four polls show them gaining seats. One has them losing a few, but retaining the majority.

[Ghost Dog]

5. Exit Polls, repeat Exit Polls (which have been largely accurate

in previous national elections)...

Even so, I'm waiting for the real count, where real high-percentage results will be achieved, probably, within about four hours from now.

DO NOTE THAT these are hand-counted paper votes, with multi-party observers at all voting places, with results from the various precincts computer-correlated.

AN OBSERVATION: According to law in Spain, no actual electoral information, beyond the ongoing particiption numbers, are allowed to be published before all voting places have closed. This applies to any partial counts and to exit polls. It worked, as far as I could see today. I could find no information about Spanish exit polls today on the internet until the legally-mandated time. Compare with the weird French Presidential election last year, for example, where the finally result was quite accurately announced by a Swiss site halfway through election day.

[Bilbo Heugan]

6. Useless

Everyone knows from 2000 and 2004 US experience that exit polls are useless.

[Ghost Dog]

7. Socialists (PSOE) win Spanish elections

Source: BBC

Supporters of Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero wave flags at the Socialist party headquarters in Madrid, 9 March, 2008
Supporters flocked to the Socialist party headquarters to celebrate
Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero's ruling Socialist Party has won Spain's general elections, with the conservative Popular Party (PP) admitting defeat.

But with 90% of votes counted, the Socialists looked set to fall short of the 176 seats needed for an absolute parliamentary majority.

They were projected to win 164 seats, compared to 148 for Mariano Rajoy's PP.

Read more: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7285885.stm

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Actually, with nearly 97% of the votes counted, the PSOE looks set to win 169 seats to PP's 154. The PSOE will need support from some smaller party or parties to form a stable government...

Full results for all parties here: http://www.elpais.com/

YAY! :-)

[arcos]

8. Pics!

[Ghost Dog]

12. Map:

http://www.lavanguardia.es/elecciones2008/mapaespanya/index.html

[nealmhughes]

17. The map says a lot about Spain, now doesn't it?

The SE, Asturias and Leon, Pais Vasco, Catalunya and adjacent regions, Balerics, and Canaries . . .

[Ghost Dog]

24. Yup. It's worth clicking on the various provinces, if you're interested.

The trend in Catalunya is certainly very strong. :hi:

edit to add: The results in Extremadura and in Andalucia, especially in Sevilla, Cordoba and Huelva, are importantly strong. In Andalucia especially so since the vote has been consistently on the left for many years, and the regional PSOE government was also re-elected yesterday after many years in local power. That was the only regional (Autonomous Community) election taking place yesterday.

Worth noting also that in the Basque Country the mainstream nationalist vote, while remaining strong, declined in favor of the PSOE. In both Catalonia and the Basque region the 'Spanish Nationalist' rightist PP has been getting simply routed also for many years now. The PSOE's line is "Spain, United and Diverse", while the PP insists on (echoing Franco somewhat) simply "United Spain" or "One Spain".

Some of the PSOE's votes have come at the expense of the often-fragmented (in spite of the 'United Left' umbrella) parties further to the left, and of Greens :-( . Note that there are very few serious small parties further to the right than the current (Aznar's legacy) PP - since many frankly fascist voters are happy with the PP's policies. Fortunately, the Falangists never get anywhere, although they may occasionally have some influence at the most local municipal level in some places. On the other hand, there are a number of local municipal governments in trusted United Left and Green coalition hands.

[New Dawn]

9. This is good.

Although unfortunately the United Left and Republican Left of Catalonia lost some seats.

[itcfish]

27. But Those Seats

went to the PSOE which is good.

[xxqqqzme]

10. Too bad we don't have a parliamentary

system. We could use some 3rd & 4th party involvement.

[New Dawn]

11. I agree,

At the very least, the US House of Representatives could be switched to nationwide proportional representation and party-lists (i.e. whatever party gets more than 3-5% of the vote is assured seats).

[harmonicon]

15. completely crazy

I love the rationalized idea of a proportional system, but it just doesn't make sense for the US congress to be run that way. Our country is way too large and diverse for a member of one party from one part of the country to be expected to represent the views of someone who, while possibly a supporter of that party, from the other side of the country. If one house were to become proportional, it would seem to make more sense for that to be the senate, but it's about 50/50 anyway, and I suspect that that's what would happen with a proportional system - no other party would get more than 1% of the vote. IRV is what we need to change things.

[New Dawn]

18. Completely disagree.

There are many countries (that are quite diverse), that use some form of PR. It can definitely work here.

And, in fact, regional parties in PR systems usually do not win many votes outside of their region. Nationwide parties select candidates for their lists from all over the country, otherwise they would not be so successful.

[harmonicon]

19. I understand that

but you can't honestly be arguing that there are countries that can be compared to the US in this way. India and Brazil may be the most similar in that they're both countries with large populations on large land masses that have open democracies. I just don't see how it would work for us, and I don't know that it would be any good. For instance, if the DNC was picking legislators, do you think Dennis Kucinich would be one of them? Do you think John Conyers would? These guys are from serious working class industrial midwestern/rust belt districts and they reflect that and represent people who live in those areas far more than some general Democratic party platform would. In many areas voters are voting for a candidate over the party, and I think that is better than voting for a party. I don't think blind party loyalty is a good thing, and I think what a Democrat needs to be in Montana is very different from what a Democrat needs to be in Southern California. Having proportional representation is just one more level of abstraction/alienation between citizens and their government, or at least it would be on such a large scale.

I do think we could stand for some serious reworking of funding of politcal campaigns so that more parties and individuals could be involved. I just think that in the US (especially with how the media controls elections), proportional representation would actually lessen diversity in government, instead of increasing it.

[Selatius]

21. France's parliamentary system is closer to ours in that it has districts represented by one person.

Of course, in France, they avoid the two-party mistake by mandating the victor must win the majority of votes instead of a simple plurality. If no one wins the majority in the first round, they have a run-off race between the top two candidates. The candidate who wins the simple majority there wins the seat. Our system only requires a simple plurality.

[harmonicon]

25. yeah, I think something like that would be far better for the US

I don't think proportional representation would work for us, but what you've just described would be great. I can't imagine that it would change who I vote for much, but I am always creeped out that it's possible for someone to win with simple plurality.

[rpannier]

13. Yesterday was a good day

Foster in Illinois
and
The Socialists in Spain

[arcos]

16. And the socialists in local french elections too.... nt

[rpannier]

14. I need to work on my Spanish

I went to http://www.elpais.com and saw a story about that POS greensplat (greenspan) and I was hoping the headline was idotic, neo-fascist-apologist, ex-president of the federal reserve board has been indicted for fraud and corruption.

I know that's not what it said -- but it would have been nice

[Selatius]

20. How come exit polls in Spain work, but they fail in the US?

Gee, I wonder what the fuck went wrong in America. :sarcasm:

[freedomnorth]

22. Spain's Socialist Prime Minister Reelected After Tough Campaign

MADRID, March 9 -- The Socialist party of Spanish Prime Minister Jos¿ Luis Rodr¿guez Zapatero won a reelection battle Sunday, turning back a tough challenge by the more conservative Popular Party, which accused the Socialists of mismanaging the economy, opening Spain to a flood of illegal immigrants and capitulating to terrorists.

But voters turned out in force to endorse the progressive social agenda that Zapatero championed in his first term -- including new laws on women's rights, divorce and gay marriage -- and returned him to office for another four years. The Socialists increased their seats in the Congress of Deputies, falling about seven short of an absolute majority; they may now rely less on coalitions and compromises with smaller parties, strengthening Zapatero's position.

"I will govern thinking first about those who don't have everything, working for the aspirations of women, giving hope to the young, and giving help and support to the elderly who have worked all their lives for it," Zapatero told cheering supporters in his victory speech. He promised to "govern with a firm hand, but an extended hand."

With 99 percent of the ballots counted, the Socialists won a projected 169 seats in the 350-member Congress with 43.7 percent of the vote, compared with 154 seats for the Popular Party, with 40.1 percent of the vote, according to Spain's Interior Ministry. In the last session of Congress, the Socialists had 164 members and the Popular Party had 148. The number of seats held by smaller parties fell from 38 in 2004 to 27, signaling Spain's continuing transformation into a two-party democracy.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/09/AR2008030902085.html

[Selatius]

23. I see the Spanish aren't afraid of socialism and healthy market regulation. Shame we are. n/t

[itcfish]

26. Hooray for Zapatero and the PSOE

Thank God! Mariano Rajoy is a ultra rightwinger and Spain does not need to go back 50 years.