STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 21 January (#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday January 21, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 369
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 000
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 40 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 92 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 304
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 788
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 20, 2004

Dow... 10,528.66 -71.85 (-0.68%)
Nasdaq... 2,147.98 +7.52 (+0.35%)
S&P 500... 1,138.77 -1.06 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.06% +0.04 (+1.07%)
Gold future... 412.90 +5.90 (+1.45%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif "Monthly Charts"

That's about all. Nothing to quote here...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Global Governance ~ Who Rules the World, Really?

by Alex Wallenwein, Editor & Publisher
<cut>

Now tell me: who has had the real reigns of power in his hands? Who has more consistently, more continuously, and more steadfastly drunk at the fountainhead of US economic power? Who truly had the most lasting and profound effect on the direction of this nation? Is it the President, or is it the central banker? This country should be renamed to more properly reflect the identity of its true master. It should be called the “United States of the Fed.”

But that was then. This is now. Last week, one carefully chosen word from across the Atlantic has served to stem the euro’s advance, and has pulled the dollar back from its precipice. And that word did not emanate from the thin-lipped mouth of Mr. Al “Magoo” Greenspan. That word was uttered with a French accent from the ECB’s Tower of Power, in the city of Frankfurt, in the former Republic of Germany.

<cut>

Oh, you say that the US was “just fine” with the dollar’s fall? And you think that is so because now, with the lower dollar, US exporters have a better chance? If you mean that not being able to do anything about it is the same as being “just fine” with impending doom, then okay, you got a point.

Certainly, it was not “just fine” with the US elites to have oil jump to $35 a barrel and have OPEC threaten to “go euro” after Russia had already done so and escaped Saddam’s fate. Certainly it was not “fine” with the US administration to have China dump its super-cheap products over here by pegging their currency low to the dollar so that, no matter how low the dollar sinks, Chinese goods are still cheaper for US consumers to buy, thus keeping the US trade deficit as high as ever. Certainly it wasn’t just “fine” with Bush that the Chinese ignored every wimpy plea he made to them to let their currency float while threatening to nuke LA if he should interfere with their ongoing efforts to snatch Taiwan. And certainly, it wasn’t “fine” with him when he knew they literally had him by the balls so that he had to meekly submit to their power and felt he was forced to publicly strafe Taiwan during the Chinese dictator’s visit here for trying to assert its independence.

New world order, here we come!

[ozymandius]

3. Dollar on Defensive After Tuesday Beating

LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar continued to lose ground across the board on Wednesday after a two cents hammering against the euro on Tuesday marked the end of a week-long recovery. The euro rose three quarters of a percent to $1.2673, coming back within sight of record peaks near $1.29 before paring gains in thin, volatile trade, while sterling and other major currencies kept the greenback pressured across the board.

<cut>

The dollar suffered its biggest one-day fall against the euro in eight months on Tuesday after a statement by euro zone finance ministers voiced concern about currency market volatility but failed to outline steps to curb the pace of the euro's recent rally.

"It's a continuation of yesterday's action with dollar weakness back on the agenda," said Mark Henry, currency strategist at GNI in London.

MORE TO COME?

[ozymandius]

4. Treasuries Slip a Bit Amid Lack of Data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices edged modestly lower as a lack of news on the economy left investors glancing at other markets for a sense of direction, and not finding much to go on.

With stocks dilly-dallying around the unchanged mark, analysts looked to moves in the hyperactive foreign exchange market to explain the move in bonds.

<cut>

Others maintained that, had the BOJ's actions really been the primary driver for Tuesday's price decline, the losses would have been a lot steeper. Foreign central banks have been huge buyers of U.S. government debt over the past year.

INTERVENTION MONEY

[Maeve]

5. Shocking story--the media does some fact-checking!

Not Quite Fully on the Money
WASHINGTON - President Bush declared that “jobs are on the rise” — literally true, but listlessly so. His report on the death of the “death tax” was a bit premature. His account of Afghanistan moving toward freedom and normalcy is challenged by some of the realities on the ground.
<snip>

Yet complex realities were sometimes boiled down into simplified rhetoric.
Bush’s boast on employment comes against a backdrop of 2.3 million jobs lost during his presidency. The improving economy may have begun to turn that around, but the climb is slow: Businesses added just 1,000 new jobs last month, and the drop in unemployment to 5.7 percent was attributed to frustrated workers — almost 310,000 — who left the labor force.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Hmmm...candidates are finding backbone, media is finding facts. Sorta gives you hope, don't it?

Excellant discussions in this thread recently--sorry I can't be around to participate!

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[ozymandius]

6. Good morning Maeve! It was getting lonely in here.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

Every time I read something like the story you just posted, I take a breath and count that among collateral. It also represents, to me, momentum - albeit small. Investigative journalism seems to have lost its way in recent years. But such an important note on President Stupid's SOTU keeps a candle of hope aflame in that hammering this half-wit on distorted rhetoric might be just plain fun for some reporters and columnists.

[Maeve]

7. Today's calendar--housing starts and building permits

8:30am 01/21/04 U.S. DEC. HOUSING STARTS UP 1.7% TO 2.09 MILLION

8:30am 01/21/04 U.S. DEC. BUILDING PERMITS UP 3.3% TO 1.92 MILLION

8:30am 01/21/04 U.S. DEC. HOUSING STARTS HIGHEST SINCE FEB. 1984

8:30am 01/21/04 U.S. 2003 HOUSING STARTS 1.85 MILLION, MOST SINCE 1978

8:30am 01/21/04 U.S. 2003 BUILDING PERMITS 1.86 MLN, MOST SINCE 1972
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/default.asp?siteid=mktw

Piggy-backed on this story:
Demand for new mortgages hits record
Applications for loans to purchase homes rises 13%, refinancing demand also up due to lower rates.
January 21, 2004: 7:24 AM EST
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A record number of Americans filed applications for mortgages to buy homes last week, an industry trade group said Wednesday, as the lowest rates since July drew buyers into the market.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said that its purchase index rose 12.5 percent to 501.6, the highest level since the group began its weekly survey in 1990, after the 30-year mortgage rate fell to 5.55 percent, its lowest level since the week ended July 11.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

This is good, as long as it doesn't lead to record number of defaults due to a record number of folks getting in over their heads.

[UpInArms]

8. daily dolllar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.49 Change -0.22 (-0.25%)

related articles

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/2004/01/21/rtr1219470.html

Dollar sickly, European shares inch up

LONDON, Jan 21 (Reuters) - The dollar extended its losses on Wednesday with investors unconvinced by the European Central Bank's attempt to talk down the single currency, while European shares inched up after a mixed day in Asia and on Wall Street.

European government bonds yields were flat, supported by the euro, safe-haven gold failed to profit from the slide in the dollar and crude oil futures dipped after eyeing 10-month highs.

Currency markets once again dominated investors' attention as the unloved dollar slipped again against the euro after suffering its biggest one-day fall against the single currency in eight months the day before.

...more...

and

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281153536

Ministers signal rise of euro must end

European finance ministers on Monday expressed their fears about the euro's sharp long-term rise against the dollar, in a signal that they feel the single currency has climbed far enough.

A meeting of the 12 eurozone ministers agreed a statement in Brussels which, significantly, failed to give the usual endorsement to a "strong and stable euro".

Instead it said: "We particularly stress stability and we are concerned about excessive exchange rate moves. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and conduct policies supporting economic recovery in a stable macro-economic environment."

<snip>

But Hans Eichel, German finance minister, said a clear message would arise from the US and elsewhere at next month's G7 meeting in Florida.

...more...

I see that Canada has lowered its interest rates. Hmmmm....

Maybe I don't understand economics or monetary policies, but I'm going to give it a stab anyway.

If a country is running a surplus and it lowers its interest rates, it seems to me that actually will make that particular economy stronger and more growth oriented (as the entities that would make more money by banking it will search for ways to increase earnings through other investments).

The problem with our currency (imho) is that we have flooded the market with a device that can only be used if there is perceived value - whether that value be "good will" or actual (if it can be traded for things that cannot be obtained without it, ie products that are of US origin). The rest of the world has lost its faith in the goodness of the US and thus, our currency. Without a resurgence in the confidence of the US to actually be the most honest and fair of countries, our currency cannot gain strength.

I'm certain that people in power in other countries were watching or reading the SOTU last night and they, unlike the majority of US citizens, do not get their news from the corporate US media. Their reactions in the next few days will be crucial to seeing the near (next year's) future of the US dollar.

The BoJ intervention is a wonder to watch. No country can manipulate two currencies at once. Eventually (unless some miracle occurs) we might see Japan and the US falter simultaneously. There was probably an opportunity about a year ago for Japan to become a more financially stable country, but they seem to have tied themselves irrevocably to the fate of the US dollar.

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

and Maeve, I am so sorry about your son's accident and your subsequent new duties :(

Glad he's not hurt :)

My thanks to all who contribute daily to this thread! I learn more every time I read it!

[ozymandius]

9. Interesting take on the BoJ

I wholeheartedly agree that Japan will eventually falter in its desperation to support the dollar.

My opinion voiced here last week reckons the BoJ as a wounded animal -bleeding, easy slow-moving prey. One has to wonder that how can they continuously support this effort of pumping money into the dollar?

[UpInArms]

10. seems to me that

Japan is rapidly becoming an obvious province of the US - they are thinking of changing their pacifist constitution and are contributing their soldiers to a conflict arena.

and here is an article regarding the summit at Davos (per my query regarding other world leaders' responses to the SOTU)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=4176468

Bush Challenged on 'Safer America' Union Message

But independent analysts at the opening session of the World Economic Forum in Switzerland said that far from making the country safer, the war on terror and the invasion of Iraq had served only to aggravate the dangers.

"No, we are not safer," said Jessica Stern, lecturer in public policy at Harvard University.

"Going into Iraq in the way we did, without broad international support, really increased the ability of al Qaeda and its sympathizers to 'prove' that the objective of the United States is to humiliate the Islamic world, more than it was to liberate the Iraqi people." Gareth Evans, former Australian foreign minister and head of the International Crisis Group think-tank, said al Qaeda and its sympathizers had expanded their theater of operations since the September 11 attacks to countries including Morocco, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.

"The unhappy truth is that the net result of the war on terror, so far at least, has been more war and more terror," Evans said.

"In Iraq, the least plausible of all the reasons for going to war -- terrorism -- has now become the most harrowing of its consequences."

Security and terrorism are major themes of this year's World Economic Forum in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, attended by more than 2,280 participants from 94 countries, including 31 heads of state or government.

...more...

[54anickel]

12. Good Morning UIA and all. Bit late today as they have been working

on the power lines here. Here's an older article that I thought was good to dust off and share. It's from '97 when the US was booming. Interesting to read now that it seems the US has become the fragile economy.

http://www-hoover.stanford.edu/publications/digest/981/becker.html

WHY FRAGILE ECONOMIES AND FLOATING CURRENCIES JUST DON'T MIX

[UpInArms]

13. this paragraph would probably give

Bernanke (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.) a stroke

By eliminating inflationary finance and creating a stable monetary environment, rigidly fixed exchange rates have immense advantages for the great many developing (and other) nations that can't trust their governments to act responsibly in fiscal and monetary matters.

[54anickel]

16. Interesting, thanks for the link. The CT in me is running with this one.

Humor me, and then slap some sense into me.

I'm seeing the firming up of the currency war against the dollar. Seems there is an attempt to force the US into responsible "real" action - no more rhetoric or firing up the printing press. Either the Fed take actual action with rates or be forced to suffer deflation. By forcing some fiscal responsibility on the US, the world economy can somewhat stabilize until such a time when they can move from the dollar as the world's reserve relatively safely.

The IMF recent warnings regarding the US deficits and the upcoming G7 are attempting to tie the hands of the "alchemist". No longer will they allow the simple threat of increasing the supply of US dollars work, US rhetoric has lost its hold. With the IMFs increasingly strong language to the US on the deficits, they are now attempting to shut down the printing press. That leaves the Fed with rates and yields as the only tools left in the shed.

on edit add (lost my train of thought during a phone call)
Back to Ozy's speculation last week of BoJ getting help from others in interventions, I am thinking this is quite possible in this scenerio. Also, Japan's growth is looking like a good investment now to others - I remember reading an article with regards to that and thought it counter intuitive to their recent expansion of the yen supply for intervention. Now, it seems to make more sense to me.

From your article:

The conclusion that deflation is always reversible under a fiat money system follows from basic economic reasoning. A little parable may prove useful: Today an ounce of gold sells for $300, more or less. Now suppose that a modern alchemist solves his subject's oldest problem by finding a way to produce unlimited amounts of new gold at essentially no cost. Moreover, his invention is widely publicized and scientifically verified, and he announces his intention to begin massive production of gold within days. What would happen to the price of gold? Presumably, the potentially unlimited supply of cheap gold would cause the market price of gold to plummet. Indeed, if the market for gold is to any degree efficient, the price of gold would collapse immediately after the announcement of the invention, before the alchemist had produced and marketed a single ounce of yellow metal.

What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

snip>
To repeat, I suspect that operating on rates on longer-term Treasuries would provide sufficient leverage for the Fed to achieve its goals in most plausible scenarios. If lowering yields on longer-dated Treasury securities proved insufficient to restart spending, however, the Fed might next consider attempting to influence directly the yields on privately issued securities. Unlike some central banks, and barring changes to current law, the Fed is relatively restricted in its ability to buy private securities directly.12 However, the Fed does have broad powers to lend to the private sector indirectly via banks, through the discount window.

snip>
Each of the policy options I have discussed so far involves the Fed's acting on its own. In practice, the effectiveness of anti-deflation policy could be significantly enhanced by cooperation between the monetary and fiscal authorities. A broad-based tax cut, for example, accommodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase, would almost certainly be an effective stimulant to consumption and hence to prices. Even if households decided not to increase consumption but instead re-balanced their portfolios by using their extra cash to acquire real and financial assets, the resulting increase in asset values would lower the cost of capital and improve the balance sheet positions of potential borrowers. A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous "helicopter drop" of money.

[UpInArms]

17. I'll see your humor

and raise the level of discourse :)

here are the "best quotes" regarding the upcoming G7 meeting

http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2004/01/21/rtr1219581.html

In foreign exchange markets, "the forces at work are much stronger and can't be neutralised by a minor change in rates. This is not the instrument," ECB governing council member Nout Wellink told Bloomberg news agency

---

"The global economy will expand better than we had expected. Our formal review will be done in April," the IMF's first deputy managing director said in India. Asked if she saw the current spell of weakness in the dollar affecting global growth, she said: "I don't think we see it as such."

----

"The effect of the continuing weakness of the dollar on activity in the euro area and on external demand for UK output was a key uncertainty", The Bank of England MPC minutes said. "There remained a risk the dollar might fall further. The depreciation to date in effective terms was unlikely by itself to be sufficient to return the U.S. current account to a sustainable level

---

"Of course intervention is one of the possibilities that a central bank has at its disposition. But we cannot discuss how and when beforehand," Austria's central bank governor, Klaus Liebscher, was quoted saying in Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore

----

"There is no change in the strong dollar policy," U.S. Treasury spokesman Rob Nichols said on Tuesday

----

"The Committee is particularly worried that the recent fall in the dollar may jeopardise global recovery prospects," said a UK parliamentary Treasury Select Committee report

----

"We are not indifferent, but concerned about excessive movements in the exchange rate," ECB chief economist Otmar Issing told the European Parliament. He said ECB policymakers' comments on the euro in the past week had "contributed to making market participants aware that this might not be a one-way street of developments. This might become risky".

by the sound of the article, it seems that the G7 will hold off doing anything until April.

[54anickel]

19. The US treasury really need to come up with a new pick up line. n/t

[UpInArms]

20. yeah, it's sounding more and more

like

"What's your sign?"

:D

[UpInArms]

11. 10:06 EST market numbers

Dow 10,494.23 -34.43 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,123.66 -24.32 (-1.13%)
S&P 500 1,134.74 -4.03 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.049% -0.008

[Maeve]

14. 11:37--choppy morning

Dow finally surfaced over the waterline, but it's been a "pointy" day on the charts
Dow 10,533.18 +4.52 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,129.28 -18.70 (-0.87%)
S&P 500 1,138.54 -0.23 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.059% +0.002

[ozymandius]

15. Hi folks. What a tale the figures tell - eh?

11:40
Dow 10,531.63 +2.97 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,129.17 -18.81 (-0.88%)
S&P 500 1,138.28 -0.49 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.057% +0.000

Cogent direction evades even sophisticated markets. It really is a wonder how a company's fortunes can change in just 24 hours. Tech used to be "all that" it seems.

My son and I need to get outside. Damn the bitter cold anyway. We're going.

Have a wonderful afternoon!

Ozy

[JNelson6563]

18. Hey there Marketeers!

Well the boy king's SOTU doesn't seemto have kick started anything good, what a surprise.

Pretty lame day with the dollar hobbling along. Great articles, quotes, links and info posted today, as usual. Busy here overthrowing the damn government. Snowy like crazy!! It's fabulous.

Maeve, sorry to hear about your son dear, I am glad he's got you to help him out.

12:37 and here's how things look now:


Dow 10,575.85 +47.19 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,133.20 -14.78 (-0.69%)
S&P 500 1,141.85 +3.08 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 4.051% -0.006


As noted before, lots of pointy spots on the graphs, don't put your eye out on those things. Now must return to printing and stamping etc. Lots of politics happening here in Mich between now and Feb, 7. I somehow seem to have gotten "volunteered" for all of it. ;-)

Nobody said the revolution would be easy OR exciting! To victory my fellow marketeers!

Julie--who still thinks gold is real pretty and not just asthetically ;-)

[Teaser]

21. Dow above 70 now...

What just happened?

[Frodo]

22. I just bought my tax software.

Sorry about that, but it had to be done... I can't figure out the paper version any more.

With all the cross-sales "free after rebate" etc... I think I just provided a najor stimulus for the economy.

Shouldn't last long... I'm not going out tomorrow.

[54anickel]

23. Here's a little bit on gold

I had an article that discussed China building their oil and gold reserves, but the link no longer works. In the meantime, I was able to dig up these that address China's interest in gold.


http://en.ce.cn/insights/t20031120_214633.shtml
snip>
First of all, increase in GNP requires total gold reserves to reach a certain level. It can be predicted that as China's economic structure further optimizes, in a considerably long period of time, national economy will maintain rapid development. Therefore, the total gold reserves should also reach a certain level to reflect our overall national strength.

Secondly, situation in the foreign trade sector makes it necessary for China to hold ample gold reserves. Since its entry to WTO, China has seen sizable increases in imports, while it still takes some time to complete adjustments in the structure of export commodities and diversification of such commodities. Therefore, keeping ample foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves is a strong guarantee to balancing our trade deficits or adjusting our international balance of payments at the time of capital scarcity, and averting risks involved in the honoring of credit money. Meanwhile, this measure may prevent negative impact caused by austere economic policy on economic development.

Thirdly, free conversion of Renminbi necessitates ample gold reserves. So far, free conversion of Renminbi under current account has been realized, and it is merely a matter of time before its free conversion under capital account is realized. Thus, keeping sufficient gold reserves is necessary to realize free conversion of Renminbi worldwide and allow Renminbi to remain a hard currency.

Fourthly, sufficient gold reserves is called for by the opening of China's gold market. As the gold market opens up, it will gradually link to international gold markets. In countries where the world's major gold markets are located, namely, the United States, Switzerland and the U.K., gold reserves account for 52 per cent, 37 per cent and 17 per cent respectively in the total reserves. Yet for China, the proportion is merely 2 per cent, which is very low. To safeguard the normal operation of the gold market, we must increase gold reserves through various channels, so that we will have sufficient gold reserves in the gold market when regulating and controlling excessive price fluctuations.





http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2004-01/08/content_296852.htm
snip>
Many analysts suggest that the central bank should spend part of its foreign exchange reserves on importing gold, and place the gold purchased in the domestic market.

Purchasing foreign gold with the reserves will not only help take billions of yuan out of circulation, but will also boost overall national import volumes, Xi said, thus "easing pressures from abroad for the appreciation of the yuan."

Savings in China hit 10.9 trillion yuan (US$1.3 trillion) at the end of last November. Trying in vain for years to encourage a high growth in private spending, China has had to rely on proactive fiscal policies marked by heavy government investment to maintain its fast gross domestic product growth.

Encouraging trading in gold is one effective way to help solve the problem, said Xi.

[Frodo]

24. Can you clarify this?

"In countries where the world's major gold markets are located, namely, the United States, Switzerland and the U.K., gold reserves account for 52 per cent, 37 per cent and 17 per cent respectively in the total reserves. Yet for China, the proportion is merely 2 per cent, which is very low."

Is this saying the US has substantially more solid reserves than Switzerland and England?

There's a disconnect here.

[54anickel]

25. I dunno. I've seen that 52 for the US in other articles as well, but

then they also state that the old fort hasn't been audited in years. The Swiss, EU, UK, etc. had been reportedly selling off some of their reserves for a "better return on the investment".

Got me as to how much anyone really has. :shrug:
At the end of '03 when I did a search on reserves, most of the countries were revaluating their foreign and gold reserves due to the dramatic changes in value. I haven't done that digging recently.

[Petrodollar Warfare]

27. I think US gold reserves have become somewhat of a state secret..

...as the amount of gold held by the federal reserve is currently subject of a lawsuit filed by several parties in the gold industry....

It just doesn't appear that we the citizens are privy to such info...

[54anickel]

26. Here's a biggie - Bundesbank gold sales bid pressures COMEX gold

http://www.forbes.com/work/newswire/2004/01/21/rtr1220764.html

NEW YORK, Jan 21 (Reuters) - COMEX gold fell Wednesday after Germany said it wanted to unload 600 tonnes of bullion if a Central Bank gold sales agreement was renewed, but ended well above the lows as the market took the news in stride.

"The market recovered surprisingly quickly from it, aided no doubt by dollar declines, which mounted toward the end of the day," said James Steel, analyst at Refco Inc.

Strong housing data helped dull gold's safe-haven shine, providing more confirmation that the U.S. economy is recovering. But investors seem comfortable with gold near recent 15-year highs, especially with the dollar remaining weak.

[54anickel]

28. An additional article on the Washington Agreement

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1073281113427

European central banks are likely to renew their five year agreement restricting gold sales in the spring, well ahead of its expiry in September, in a move that could prolong the two year bull run in bullion prices.

The new agreement is also expected to raise the limit on aggregate annual sales by the 15 participating central banks, which include Germany, France, Italy and the UK, from 400 tonnes to more than 450.

Klaus Liebscher, governor of the Austrian central bank - a signatory to the accord - said he was "very optimistic" that a new gold agreement would have been "negotiated by the spring". In an interview with the Financial Times, he said the talks were "not yet in the end phase. But he indicated Europe's central bankers were supporting a renewal of the agreement. "It is wise to renew the pact... and many of my colleagues see it that way."


more...

[54anickel]

29. Anyone else feeling like a spectator in a great game of Chess? n/t

[Maeve]

30. More like a pawn at times

Or just one of many little toy soldiers in a huge game of "Risk."

Afternoon rally seems to have peaked, particularly for the Nasdaq:
Dow 10,611.11 +82.45 (+0.78%)
Nasdaq 2,136.61 -11.37 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,145.65 +6.88 (+0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.037% -0.020

[54anickel]

32. It's time to create an updated version of the Game of Life board game. My

old boss created a parody of Monopoly call Resolution, the game of the S&L crisis. It was great, lots of quotes from Raygun admin folks on the draw cards. It did pretty well with the Yuppie crowd who could relate.

Now, a new Life game, most average Americans could relate to that. Could be a big money maker for DU. Work in some quotes for the idiot boy king and Greenman. Political satire game.

[54anickel]

31. OK, one more article regarding monetary policy and the IMF

Sorry, but I temporarily fell back into that researcher mode - Another relapse.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/economics/story/0,11268,1125498,00.html

[Maeve]

33. Final mixed numbers

Dow 10,623.62 +94.96 (+0.90%)
Nasdaq 2,142.45 -5.53 (-0.26%)
S&P 500 1,147.62 +8.85 (+0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 4.037% -0.020

[54anickel]

34. Exuberance?

[Maeve]

35. Insanity?

:shrug: or the ever popular question "PPT?"
Can't let Frat Boy look bad when he says it's all good, now, can we? :tinfoilhat:

[54anickel]

36. When you put it that way - Yep that SOTU address really got the Dow going

[KoKo]

38. Irrational Exhuberance + Market Insanity + Lies + Obfuscations + Anomaly

+ Cheeleaders + "it's nothing we've seen before a 'New Paradigm' + High, OTT PE Ratios for companies like at close to bubble top + Corporate Media Whore Financial News ...coupled with REPUG SPIN, + all the other crap and hype that's out there ============ EQUALS, EQUALS, EQUALS........

:shrug: Who knows....what the truth of it all is? :shrug:

[54anickel]

37. A tisket a tasket....Ya, ya I know I said one last one before, but this

is interesting in light of today's posts.

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/story/0,4567,105915,00.html

With regard to the ringgit peg, Dr Mohamad Ariff said: 'There will be increasing pressure to adjust the peg if the US dollar continues to depreciate - the breaking point could be reached before the end of this year.'

According to him, a truer reflection of the ringgit's value is needed to aid businesses. 'The ringgit is inherently strong but apparently weak. This has to change.'

The peg - now at RM3.80 to US$1 - may have to be adjusted by 10 per cent, he said. 'It could be RM3.50 or RM3.40. It all depends on the government.'

MIER has advocated that the US$ peg be dropped in favour of a more flexible mechanism, possibly a peg against a basket of currencies or a moving peg. The ringgit has depreciated more than 10 per cent against the yen in the past year.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3417107.stm

And worries that Japan and China would stop financing the deficits were brushed aside by Mr Bergsten, who argued that both countries would continue buying US treasury bonds to keep their own currencies low and help their exporters.

Not everybody agrees. Zuh Min, boss of the Bank of China and economic adviser to the Chinese president, noted that during recent years Asia had bought 60% of US government bonds.

Asia would be able to afford this for just another two years at best, Mr Zhu warned.

And Professor Fu Jun of Beijing University, who is seen as being close to the Beijing government, suggested that China might soon peg its currency not to the dollar alone but a basket of currencies.



Or this counter-point:
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200401/20/eng20040120_133106.shtml
China will keep its currency stable this year and has no plans to change the yuan's peg to the dollar, a chief economist says in Beijing.

"I feel the renminbi (RMB) still needs to be stable. Stability is beneficial. It's beneficial to Asia, to the world," said Yao Jingyuan, chief economist and spokesman for China's National Bureau of Statistics.

Asked whether the currency will definitely remain stable, Yao told reporters: "Definitely."

Pushed on whether there were plans to adjust the exchange rate, he said: "No."

He was speaking at the end of a press conference in which the bureau revealed China's gross domestic product grew by 9.1 percent in 2003.

In December, China Business Post reported that China's central bank was quietly moving ahead with a plan to peg the yuan to a basket of 10 currencies, instead of the US dollar alone.

A prospective 10 currencies would represent China's largest trade partners as well as its main sources of investment, the report said, citing sources with the People's Bank of China.

At a later phase China could eventually allow a "managed float" that would permit the currency to move within a set range, the report said.

The report gave no timetable for implementation of either phase and stressed that the potential policy change was still being studied.

[JNelson6563]

39. Scary stuff

This oughta drive the lemmings to the Buy window like nobody's business. ;-)

Julie