STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday March 28

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday March 28, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 299
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2623 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2349 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2640
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 27, 2008

Dow... 12,302.46 -120.40 (-0.97%)
Nasdaq... 2,280.83 -43.53 (-1.87%)
S&P 500... 1,325.76 -15.37 (-1.15%)
Gold future... 954.20 UNCH (UNCH)
30-Year Bond 4.38% +0.05 (+1.06%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.53% +0.04 (+1.14%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Moving in Circles

BY PAUL NOLTE

The markets have been doing the Texas two-step for the past couple of weeks – having moved in circles around the same point for the past two plus months. At the center of the circle is a raging “debate” – are we in a recession, and what are the implications of the slowdown in the real estate markets? Depending upon the day of the week and the economic release, the markets either soar or collapse. The hand wringing about what to do, what can be done and where will we be in a year immediately follows centering on either a bombed out shell of an economy or a touch and go to newly growing economy. While we don’t subscribe to either extreme, it is that tug of war going on in the financial markets daily that will eventually point the way to the end game. So what do we believe? First, we are in a recession that likely started in either December or January. Second, the financial markets, due to the dislocation within the financial world are not acting in a “normal” fashion. And third, like gall stones, this too shall pass – with some pain (even with a healthy dose of drugs).

Add the Fed to things that shouldn’t be discussed in polite company as everyone has an opinion and they tend to be polar opposites. Some say the Fed is doing the right thing by being as aggressive as they are in providing liquidity to the markets and making the bold step of stepping into the Bear Stearns/JPMorgan “buyout.” Others are claiming either the Fed is behind the curve (too slow to react) or that the stepping into the BSC/JPM situation was well beyond their edict. So today, we see that there will be a Senate Finance & Banking committee to look into the deal. To be fair, the Fed only has a few weapons in their arsenal and they have used nearly all of them to the maximum amount possible. Without camping out in a bank and forcing them to make a loan, the monetary system has grinded to a halt. Merger volume has fallen off a cliff – and those deals that have been announced are getting reviewed or scuttled. The short-term commercial paper market is in disrepair and the mortgage market has slowed. The major question that will not likely be answered soon is that if something needs to be done, what is it and is it being done just to do something. The Fed is in a box, the government is in a box and the consumer is being boxed.

So the million dollar question is, as always, what to do in today’s environment?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Personal Income Feb
Briefing.com 0.3%
Consensus 0.3%
Prior 0.3%

08:30 Personal Spending Feb
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.4%

08:30 Core PCE Inflation Feb
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.3%

10:00 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Mar
Briefing.com 70.5
Consensus 70.0
Prior 70.5

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

25. U.S. Feb. real consumer spending flat - U.S. Feb. nominal incomes up 0.5% vs. 0.2% expected

01. U.S. core inflation up 2% in past year, within Fed's target
8:30 AM ET, Mar 28, 2008 - 1 minute ago

02. U.S. Feb. personal savings rate rises to 0.3%
8:30 AM ET, Mar 28, 2008 - 1 minute ago

03. U.S. Feb. nominal spending up 0.1% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 28, 2008 - 1 minute ago

04. U.S. Feb. nominal incomes up 0.5% vs. 0.2% expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 28, 2008 - 1 minute ago

05. U.S. Feb. core PCE price index up 0.1% as expected
8:30 AM ET, Mar 28, 2008 - 1 minute ago

06. U.S. Feb. real consumer spending flat
8:30 AM ET, Mar 28, 2008 - 1 minute ago

[UpInArms]

39. March UMich consumer sentiment 69.5 vs. 70.8 in Feb

01. March UMich consumer sentiment 69.5 vs. 70.8 in Feb
9:57 AM ET, Mar 28, 2008 - 51 seconds ago

[Demeter]

43. Isn't It Amazing How UofM Never Has to Revise Their Results

while every government number is "re-adjusted" up to three times?

[UpInArms]

50. US economy stabilizes, but index shows recession-ECRI

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00386420080328

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth ticked up in the latest week as did its annualized growth rate, but both still show the U.S. economy headed for recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.8 in the week of March 21 from 130.8 in the prior week.

The rise in WLI was due to lower interest rates and jobless claims and stronger housing. That was partly offset by lower stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to minus 10.0 percent from minus 10.2 percent, revised from negative 10.4 percent.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil below $107 after overnight jump

SINGAPORE - Oil prices fell Friday after jumping more than $1 a barrel in the previous session as the bombing of a key Iraqi oil pipeline heightened supply concerns.

Thursday's bombing appeared to cut oil exports from the southern oil city of Basra, despite oil officials' statements to the contrary.

.....

Light, sweet crude for May delivery lost 68 cents to $106.90 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore.

The contract rose $1.68 to settle at $107.58 a barrel on Thursday.

.....

The news from Iraq added to supply concerns stoked Wednesday when a U.S. government agency reported that domestic crude oil inventories were mostly unchanged last week, while fuel supplies fell more than expected.

The supply issues temporarily drew attention from the dollar, which rose slightly against the euro Thursday, reversing a trend that sent oil futures surging nearly $5 the day before.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Bear Stearns CEO Cayne sells stake

NEW YORK - Bear Stearns Cos. Chairman James Cayne on Thursday sold his holdings in the embattled investment bank ahead of its expected acquisition by JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Cayne sold 5.66 million shares for exactly $10.84 a share for $61.3 million. However, it was not known if those shares were dumped into the open market or if Cayne sold them to another party.

A spokesman for Bear Stearns would not comment on the sale.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080328/ap_on_bi_ge/bear_stearns_cayne

[UpInArms]

30. Judge says ex-Bear exec (Douglas Sharon) can't join Morgan Stanley

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2841141120080328?sp=true

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A U.S. federal judge has temporarily blocked a former senior Bear Stearns Cos (BSC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) executive from jumping to Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and recruiting clients and colleagues to follow him.

U.S. District Judge Nathaniel Gorton in Boston issued the order against Douglas Sharon on Thursday, 10 days after the former Bear executive director resigned, court papers show.

The judge concluded that Bear was likely to succeed on the merits of the case and, absent relief, would suffer irreparable harm.

Sharon's lawyer, Joshua Pemstein of Foley Hoag LLP, was not immediately available for comment. Morgan Stanley also did not immediately return a call seeking comment.

Bear, crippled by a liquidity crisis, agreed this week to be acquired by JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) in a transaction valuing it at $10 per share. JPMorgan is offering bonuses to many Bear employees to persuade them to stay.

According to Bear's complaint filed Wednesday, Sharon was executive director of Bear's private client services group in Boston, generating $5.12 million of annual commissions and overseeing more than $867 million of client assets.

Bear accused the 20-year company veteran of failing to give the required 90 days notice before resigning.

...more...

[ozymandius]

5. Countrywide exec gets $28 million from Bank of America

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp (BAC.N) said it has agreed to pay $28 million to Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N) Chief Operating Officer David Sambol to induce him to run the merged companies' consumer mortgage operations.

The amount, which vests over three years, is 37 percent higher than the $20.4 million that Bank of America Chairman and Chief Executive Kenneth Lewis was compensated in 2007 to run the second-largest U.S. bank.

Bank of America disclosed the amount in a Thursday filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Sambol, who is also Countrywide's president, was named in January to run the mortgage business after Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America completes its purchase of the largest U.S. mortgage lender. That transaction was valued Thursday at about $4.1 billion.

.....

The U.S. Federal Reserve plans to hold public hearings on April 22 in Chicago and on April 28 and 29 in Los Angeles on the Countrywide takeover. The combined company would make about one in four U.S. home loans.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080328/bs_nm/bankofamerica_countrywide_bonus_dc

[salin]

18. This is obscene, imo. Read his bio

http://about.countrywide.com/bios/Biography.aspx?CtlID=14

David Sambol

President and Chief Operating Officer
Countrywide Financial Corporation
President and CEO Countrywide Bank, FSB


David Sambol is President and Chief Operating Officer for Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC), a diversified financial services provider and member of the S&P 500. He also serves as President and Chief Executive Officer of Countrywide Bank, FSB.

Leading all operations of the Company, Sambol has oversight responsibility for Countrywide Bank, Countrywide Insurance Group, Countrywide Capital Markets ("CCM") and Countrywide's Global Operations.

Sambol most recently served as Executive Managing Director of Business Segment Operations, leading all revenue generating functions of the Company, as well as corporate operational and support units comprised of Administration, Marketing and Corporate Communications and Enterprise Operations and Technology.

Sambol has been instrumental in Countrywides transformation as the dominant mortgage lending centric company in the financial services industry. Under his supervision, Countrywides core mortgage franchise has expended to encompass the most comprehensive end-to-end platform in the industry, experiencing the largest market share growth of any mortgage lender in the United States. Previously, Sambol served as Chief Executive Officer of Countrywides Capital Markets business. During his tenure with Capital Markets, Sambol helped establish Countrywide Servicing Exchange, one of the nation's largest servicing brokerage and advisory firms.

Prior to joining Countrywide in 1985, Sambol served as a Certified Public Accountant with the accounting firm of Ernst & Whinney. He received a Bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Accounting from California State University, Northridge in 1982.



Sounds like he was ultimately responsible for the types of practices that helped accelerate the current crises - and BOA is going to give him 28 million more - to "induce" him to stay and run the consumer mortgage loan operations.

WTF?

The feds should stay out of doling any bailout money to BOA given the signal that they are giving in rewarding the performance and practices of Sambol.

[MilesColtrane]

45. Hell, I'd run a company into the ground for $2.8 mill.

I'll just need to pad my resume a little.

[UpInArms]

26. NYT: Fed Hearings on Countrywide Deal will be a joke and a rubber stamp

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/28/business/28fed.html?ex=1364356800&en=39e5e6fed350d97e&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones) — The Federal Reserve announced Thursday that it would hold public meetings next month on the offer by Bank of America to acquire Countrywide Financial.

The Fed scheduled the meetings, two in Los Angeles and one in Chicago, to collect information related to factors it is required to consider under the Bank Holding Company Act. Last month, Bank of America requested approval under the law to acquire Countrywide.

The Fed said it would consider whether the acquisition could reasonably be expected to produce benefits like greater convenience and more competition that outweighed adverse effects, including conflicts of interests and unsound banking practices.

:grr:

[wordpix]

79. this makes me sick---and I've noticed that many investment funds are heavily into BOA

they've dumped Citigroup and now BoA is their loved one.

This really makes me :grr: :mad:

Even the social investment funds are invested in BoA.

[ozymandius]

6. Fannie, Freddie may raise $20 billion: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's regulator will allow the mortgage financiers to raise as much as $20 billion in capital as part of an agreement that lets them buy more debt securities, Bloomberg News said on Friday.

"That's the top end of the range," said James Lockhart, director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, in an interview on Thursday, the report said.

The capital may take the form of common shares, preferred shares, or convertible preferred shares, and will need to be raised "sooner rather than later," Lockhart said.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac must raise the money before OFHEO approves a further cut in the amount of capital they need to protect against losses on some $5 trillion of mortgage investments, Lockhart said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN2839746420080328

[ozymandius]

7. Citigroup to name U.S. consumer chief in shuffle: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc, the largest U.S. bank, plans to hire an outsider to take over its flagging U.S. consumer business, the Wall Street Journal said on Friday.

Terri Dial, who runs Lloyds TSB Group Plc's U.K. retail banking business, will replace Steven Freiberg at the helm of U.S. consumer operations, the newspaper said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Dial will become global head of consumer strategy, but the 58-year-old California native's primary task will be to improve U.S. retail banking and consumer finance, the newspaper said. Freiberg, who used to run the bank's North American credit card business, would take over the card business worldwide.

.....

The changes are the latest under Vikram Pandit, who replaced Charles Prince as chief executive in December. Pandit has been carrying out a top-to-bottom review of Citigroup to find ways to boost earnings and revenue, cut costs and help rejuvenate a stock price that has slid by more than half in the last year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN2828876420080328

[ozymandius]

8. Volunteers?

I am going to be away for a few days. My family and I are traveling to California - leaving obscenely early on Tuesday morning (4/1) and returning Monday evening (4/7). So I am asking for a volunteer or volunteers to help out with the thread over these days.

In the past, we have had a variety of schedule configurations in which Marketeers have posted the thread on non-consecutive days. This managed to work just fine.

This gig doesn't pay much. You are asked to provide your own coffee, tea, food, computer, internet connection, bookmarked reference pages, and as much time as your life will allow. Much of the pay comes in the form of in-kind appreciation derived from responses posted from our beloved Marketeers. Dress is casual (evidenced by my sweat pants and tee-shirt). Clothing is, of course, optional.

Just bear in mind that you will have my enormous appreciation :deepbow: for stepping up to the plate during my absence. Thank you very much in advance even for considering this plea.

So for copy-n-paste convenience here's a crude scheduling chart for your consideration:

Tuesday, April 1:
Wednesday, April 2:
Thursday, April 3:
Friday, April 4:
Monday, April 7:

I'll check back later in the day. Right now though I am off to school for another day of teaching.

Have fun with the snark.
Ozy :hi:

[Ghost Dog]

24. Days others don't volunteer for, I can probably be relied on

to start the thread early on most of those days, if you email me an updated template + data sources.

We change the clocks here on Sunday, so I'll be on GMT+1 - back to 5 hours ahead of EST.

But, since I'm more focussed on Asian & European stuff first thing in the mornings, I'd need to rely more on others for the early US-oriented posts...

[Demeter]

29. I Don't Know Anything About How To Do This

but I have chronic insomnia lately, so I'm willing to learn--especially if somebody will let me shadow them....can't do a weekend, but that's not normally an issue....

[TalkingDog]

33. howdy, I might be available one day or so

seeing as I am newly unemployed.

Whad'da ya expect? I worked for an arts-based non-profit.

The timing is a little sooner than I had projected (end of the summer was my guess)..... but on one of the many upsides, this will give me more time in the garden and in the studio.

I will let you know after I get word on my PC which is undergoing it's uncannily timed yearly tax-time melt down.

I am sitting in a local cafe on my one-laptop-per-child computer trying to make my fingers work this tiny key-board as a stop gap. It ain't pretty.

I will PM later today. If all else fails, I can get the template from one of the revered old guard over the weekend if there is a shortge of available hands.

Enjoy your trip.

[ozymandius]

74. Thank you.

Off-thread coordination is underway. Let me know how you might be available by PMing me.

:hi:

[UpInArms]

42. I'm always here if you need me to fill in

but I would love to let others take a shot at it :D

:hi:

[Demeter]

47. If You Are Willing to Teach, Drop Me a Line in the Mailbox

gotta use that BSEE for something!

[UpInArms]

52. ...

:hi:

[Hugin]

77. Yow! It's a crisis of fiscal proportions!

Who told you, you could have some time to your self!! :breaksoutincoldsweat:

Honestly, Ozy... I'd volunteer, but, I'm not currently in a position that I can offer any sort of reliability.
(Translation: Prag is not normally sober early enough to start a SMW thread. A good day is when a browser window
can be opened and somehow using Brownian Motion manages to navigate to DU:LBN.)

But, if I do happen by at say, 09:30 ET ish and there isn't yet a SMW, I promise I'll cobble together some sort
of Frankensteinesque SMW knock-off (possibly containing trace amounts of heavy-metals and perhaps some meat-like by-products)

I hope you enjoy your break and return refreshed! :)

Prag.

[Ghost Dog]

9. Asian Stocks Have Biggest Weekly Gain of 2008; Cnooc Advances

March 28 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, completing their biggest weekly gain this year, after Cnooc Ltd. reported higher profits and Samsung Electronics Co. forecast higher sales.

Cnooc, China's largest offshore oil company, rose to a two- week high. Samsung Electronics, Asia's largest maker of chips and mobile phones, climbed to the highest in more than seven weeks. Westpac Banking Corp. led Australian banks lower after raising its interest rate for home loans.

``Given the current environment, investors should stick to companies with strong fundamentals,'' said Nicole Sze, a Singapore-based investment analyst at Bank Julius Baer & Co., which manages $350 billion in assets worldwide. ``So far, the bad news has been confined to the financials and we haven't seen a spillover into other sectors yet.''

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.1 percent to 141.55 as of 5:50 p.m. in Tokyo, after earlier losing as much as 0.5 percent. All of the benchmark's 10 industry groups advanced, with energy shares posting the biggest increase.

The measure has risen 4.2 percent this week, its largest advance since the period ended Nov. 30. The benchmark has lost 10 percent this year and is set for its biggest first-quarter decline since 1992. Shares have fallen on concern a U.S. housing slump will drag the world's largest economy into a recession.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1.7 percent to 12,820.47. China's CSI 300 Index jumped 4.5 percent, the region's largest advance, as some investors judged recent declines overdone. Benchmarks climbed in all other markets, except Australia.

...

``Asia can weather the U.S. subprime crisis and slowdown better than the rest of the world as companies here are on a stronger footing,'' said Jason Chong, who helps manage $600 million as chief investment officer at UOB-OSK Asset Management in Kuala Lumpur.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a1J8kPPuVUVk&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

20. Japan's jobless rate rises as inflation hits decade high

TOKYO, March 28, 2008 (AFP) - Japan said Friday its jobless rate rose for the first time in five months as core inflation hit the fastest pace in a decade, adding to concerns about the health of Asia's largest economy.

Companies are hiring fewer workers as they grapple with rising costs and falling exports to the ailing US economy, a slew of data showed.

The jobless rate rose unexpectedly to 3.9 percent in February from 3.8 percent the previous month, official figures showed.

Although Japan should avoid a sharp rise in unemployment in the coming years thanks to the retirement of post-war baby boomers, the labour market could worsen in the near term because of a tougher business climate, analysts said.

"We're not seeing a sharp deterioration, but there are some signs of a softening in employment growth, particularly for small firms which have been hit by rising costs," said Lehman Brothers economist Hiroshi Shiraishi.

Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile fresh food, rose 1.0 percent in February from a year earlier, the quickest pace since March 1998. Excluding the impact of a sales tax hike in that month, it was the fastest pace since 1994.

Markets had expected a 0.9 percent rise, after a gain of 0.8 percent in January.

For years, the biggest headache for Japan's central bank was deflation, or falling consumer prices, which undermined company profits and gave consumers an incentive to wait to spend their money.

Now it has another worry -- soaring prices of oil, raw materials and food that are making life tougher for companies and consumers.

"There's very little upward pressure on prices domestically. It's basically all coming from imported inflation and that's hurting household sentiment," said Shiraishi.

/... http://asia.news.yahoo.com/080328/afp/080328082627business.html

[Ghost Dog]

10. Miners, drugmakers help Europe shares higher

LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - European shares ticked higher in early trade on Friday as miners gained on bullish brokerage comments and defensive drugmakers rose, while investors geared up for U.S. inflation data for clues on interest rates.

At 0936 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was up 0.13 percent at 1,273.26 points.

Miners contributed the most points to the index, with Anglo American (AAL.L: Quote, Profile, Research), Rio Tinto (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and BHP Billiton (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rising 2.3 to 3 percent after Deutsche Bank lifted price targets for some companies in the sector.

Pharmaceuticals also gained, with France's Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) rising 2 percent and Switzerland's Novartis (NOVN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) up 1.2 percent.

And heavyweight oil stocks rose as crude traded well above $107 a barrel. Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) and Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 0.5 to 0.8 percent.

"We were due a bear-market rally and the question is: when does it start? I think we're close," said Stephen Dowds, head of international equities at Northern Trust.

"There have been some days where bad news has been shrugged off, and while nothing's going to change fundamentally, some stocks are looking really good value on a price perspective."

The FTSEurofirst 300 has risen 3.9 percent this week but is down nearly 16 percent so far this year, putting it on track to record its worst quarter since the third quarter of 2002.

...

Across Europe, Britain's FTSE .FTSE and Germany's DAX .GDAXI rose 0.4 percent, and France's CAC .FCHI was 0.3 percent higher.

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/eurMktRpt/idUKL2811545920080328

[Ghost Dog]

13. UK - GDP reduce the growth rate to 0,6% in 4Q, according to the estimates

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - British gross domestic product has increased 0.6% in the last quarter of 2007, according to previous estimates, and 2.8% from the same period last year, estimates revised from 2.9% posted previously, according to the revision of the first GDP estimation released by National Statistics.

On the quarter, GDP growth would have slowed down slightly compared to the 0.7% growth posted in the third quarter, due to a weaker growth of the services output. Output of the production industries increased 0.2%, while output of mining and quarrying fell 0.1%.

Services output has risen 0.7% from October to December, down from the 0.9% increase posted in the previous quarter. The distribution, hotels and catering output rose by 0.2%, transport storage and communication output rose by 1.7 per cent, business services and finance output rose by 0.6%, government and other services output rose by 0.7%

DEficit in net trade fell to 11.6B pounds in 4Q, exports of goods fell 0,9% and imports goods fell 0,6%. While exports services rose 0,2% in 4Q, and service imports fell 2.3%.

On the year, GDP has increased 2.8 in 4Q%, and for the 2007 year as a whole, GDP rose 3.0%, above the 2.9% increase posted in 2006.

/. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=1bf367de-655f-48f7-869e-72d9d42b887e

[Ghost Dog]

19. Pound pressured as house prices drop

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Falling house prices, higher mortgage rates and declining consumer confidence undercut the British pound Friday, sending sterling to a new all-time low against the euro.

The euro pressed as high as 0.7923 pounds Friday, the highest level against sterling in the European single currency's nine-year history. The euro remained 0.7% higher at 0.7913 pounds in recent action.

The pound was also 0.5% lower against the U.S. dollar, declining to $1.9975.

The pound saw early pressure after the Nationwide building society, a leading U.K. mortgage lender, said house prices fell for the fifth consecutive month. The 0.6% decline was larger than the 0.3% drop expected by markets and pulled annual price growth down to 1.1% -- the slowest in 12 years. See full story.

Also, GfK NOP reported Friday morning that its U.K. consumer confidence index dropped two points in March to -19, its lowest reading in 15 years. The index posted a reading of -17 in February.

/... http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7B8117F70E%2DBED8%2D45A0%2D8782%2DC21A94389BB2%7D&siteid=rss

[Ghost Dog]

14. French Consumer Confidence At Record Low In March

French Consumer Confidence At Record Low In March

Fri, Mar 28 2008, 10:27 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu
PARIS (Dow Jones)--French consumer confidence fell for the eighth straight month to a record low in March, as consumers became more pessimistic about their standard of living, data from the French national statistics office Insee showed Friday.

The consumer confidence index declined to -36 in March from -35 in February, Insee said. Economists in a Dow Jones Newswires poll had expected the reading to be unchanged from February.

The index in March "reached a new low never seen since the existence of the survey, that is to say 1987," Global Equities' economist Marc Touati said.

French consumer confidence has been declining since it peaked at -13 in June last year, its highest reading since January 2003.

The slight fall in confidence comes against a background of turmoil on financial markets, rising inflation, a strong euro and record oil prices.

And while unemployment has continued to fall, reaching its lowest level in more than a decade in the fourth quarter last year, the French growth outlook has deteriorated.

The French economy will grow between 1.7% and 2% in 2008, less then the 2.25% initially expected, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Wednesday.

"A cooling property market, growing uncertainty generated by the ongoing financial turmoil, and, above all, higher inflation as a result of elevated food and oil prices are hitting consumers' morale, despite falling unemployment," Diego Iscaro, an economist at Global Insight, said.

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=88c83c38-d867-4e96-a43c-14728c663e94

[Ghost Dog]

15. Swiss KOF Leading Indicator falls to 1.54 in Mar from 1.65 Feb n/t

http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=25953774-0225-41d4-9af6-9da1205431ed

[Ghost Dog]

16. Euro Reversing Recent Losses Against Dollar

(RTTNews) - The European currency reversed its direction against the dollar after hitting a low of 1.5743 at 4:20 am ET. The euro-dollar pair is currently trading at 1.5812, compared to yesterday's closing value of 1.5780.

The German import price index, French consumer confidence indicator and the GDP reports, which were released today likely, influenced the euro-dollar pair.

The French economy grew 0.4% sequentially in the fourth quarter. The economic growth slowed sharply from 0.8% registered in the third quarter. The Gross Domestic Product increased 1.9% in 2007 compared with 2.2% in 2006.

The French consumer confidence decreased to minus 36 in March from minus 35 in February. Economists were looking for the index to remain stable at minus 35. A year ago, the indicator stood at minus 21.

The German import price index increased 5.9% year-on-year in February. The report said that this is the highest year-on-year rate of price increase since July 2006, when the index climbed 6.3%. In January, the import price index grew 5.2% followed by a 3.7% increase in December. On a monthly basis, import prices were up 1.1% in February.

/.. http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/NewsStory.aspx?cpath=20080328\ACQRTT200803280608RTTRADERUSEQUITY_0311.htm

[Ghost Dog]

17. France's Sarkozy says euro is too strong

Thu Mar 27, 2008 5:43pm EDT
LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Thursday that the euro was too strong and questioned whether current monetary imbalances were sustainable.

"When I was a student, I was taught that a strong economy has a strong currency," Sarkozy said in a speech at a dinner in London's financial district that ended his two-day state visit to Britain.

"What do I see today? The opposite. The dollar has never been so weak, the yuan is as weak as ever, the yen is the same. And the euro, which has too weak growth, is at too high a level."

"Who can believe that the monetary imbalances which led to today's situation can persist?" he asked.

Sarkozy, for part of last year, was an isolated but vociferous critic of the euro's rise on the foreign exchanges.

However, more and more European countries have expressed similar concerns about the damage the strong euro risks inflicting on exports as the single currency has risen further and further, hitting a record high above $1.59 last week.

...

Sarkozy, who departed from his prepared text, also took aim at credit rating agencies, which have been criticized by many investors for failing to act earlier to lower some ratings.

"Who can imagine that it is normal that international rating agencies can rate certain financial products AAA on a Friday and the same financial products, rated by the same agencies, become BBB on the Monday?" Sarkozy asked.

"I don't want that kind of capitalism, because it's the capitalism of frivolity, of lies and of lack of transparency," he said.

/more... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNTL2726924920080327?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

62. ECB to infuse 150 billion euros into money markets

(Kyodo) _ The European Central Bank said Friday it will inject 150 billion euros, or about $235 billion, in additional liquidity into European money markets to support the normalization of the functioning of the euro money market.

The amount of fresh funds marks the largest since the ECB infused about 130 billion euros in mid-December.

The ECB took the measure ahead of the release of quarterly earnings by financial institutions amid the escalating credit crunch stemming from subprime mortgage woes.

The ECB's governing council decided Thursday to conduct supplementary longer-term refinancing operations with a maturity of six months, the bank said in a statement.

In addition, the council decided to conduct further supplementary LTROs with a three-month maturity, it said, adding the regular monthly LTROs remain unaffected.

These measures "are aimed at supporting the normalization of the functioning of the euro money market," the ECB said.

/... http://asia.news.yahoo.com/080328/kyodo/d8vmhp5g0.html

[Ghost Dog]

64. ECB lengthens liquidity injection ops to 6 months

FRANKFURT, March 28 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank lengthened its refinancing operations for banks to six months for the first time ever in a fresh bid to calm the jittery money market and keep interest rate and liquidity policy separate.

So far the ECB has only been offering refinancing of up to 3 months, to inject liquidity into the market where banks have become reluctant to lend to each other in the wake of the U.S. sub-prime mortgage market crisis.

"The previous measures have not fully worked," said Christoph Balz, ECB economist at Commerzbank.

"If banks have funds available for a longer time, this could help to stabilise the market. If there is more liquidity just overnight, this does not help the market, since it will be gone the next day. But with 6 months maturity it is easier for banks to operate," he said.

...

Despite earlier operations six-month EURIBOR rates <EURIBOR6MD=> have been rising steeply as a result of the financial market turmoil. On February 8 they stood at 4.29 percent but they were at 4.733 percent on Friday .

/Continued... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL2859767020080328?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

65. Inflation worries knock Europe shares lower

LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - European stocks fell on Friday, as signs of building inflation pressures in the euro zone dampened hopes for any European Central Bank rate cut soon, banks and oil stocks also dragged the index lower.

Utilities also dragged on the European market with E.ON (EONG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) falling 2.8 percent. The world's largest utility said 2008 profits would come out at the lower end of its predicted range.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index closed unofficially down 0.5 percent at 1,264.68 points. But the index rose 3.1 percent on the week -- its first weekly rise in the last five weeks and its largest weekly increase since early December.

Oil stocks fell as crude prices eased more than $1 a barrel as flows through Iraq's pipeline system were restored after disruption by a bomb attack a day earlier. BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 1.8 percent and Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 0.6 percent.

Banks were among the biggest negative weights on the index. HBOS (HBOS.L: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 3.1 percent and UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) eased 2.4 percent.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL2857227920080328?rpc=44

^ATX ATX 3,827.86 12:35PM ET Up 67.38 (1.79%)
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^FTSE FTSE 100 5,692.90 12:35PM ET Down 24.60 (0.43%)

[Ghost Dog]

11. If the bailout comes, watch for a dollar dive

Tue Mar 25, 2008 1:18pm GMT
By James Saft

LONDON (Reuters) - If the United States bails out the financial system by buying mortgage debt directly, the price just might be surging inflation and a dollar crisis.

Calls are increasing for the government, either directly or via the Federal Reserve, to cut the knot of the credit crisis at a stroke by buying up mortgages that banks and investment banks are finding difficult to finance.

If the United States bought mortgage debt at or very near 100 cents on the dollar, despite the fact that much of it is trading well below that, it would allow banks to pay back loans used to finance these holdings.

If done in sufficient size, say $800 billion (400 billion pounds) or $1 trillion, it would relieve the terrible pressure on bank balance sheets and allow other credit markets, like those for corporate loans, to return to something approaching equilibrium.

That in turn would make Fed monetary policy more effective in the sense that banks would be able to increase lending and pass on interest rate reductions.

Of course this is a radical step, and way beyond the Fed's already extraordinary policy of swapping mortgages held by banks and some investment banks for easy to finance Treasuries.

It is also hugely risky in terms of the Fed's obligation to maintain stable prices. Putting aside moral hazard -- many foolish borrowers and lenders would thus be given a free ride -- and depending on how such a bailout was done, it could stoke inflation to levels intolerable to foreign creditors, provoking a sharp fall in the dollar as they sought safety elsewhere.

Such a bailout would either have to be paid for by taxes, which seems unlikely, or would involve issuing more government debt or effectively expanding the money supply.

/continues... http://uk.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUKNOA54771920080325

[Ghost Dog]

12. Price stability should remain key: Fed's Plosser

CAPE TOWN (Reuters) - The best way for central banks to foster sustainable economic growth and prevent instability is to keep inflation under control, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Charles Plosser said on Friday.

A broader role for monetary policy is risky, he added, because failure to deliver results could lead to a crisis of confidence in central banking.

"Price stability is not only a worthwhile objective in its own right. It is also the most effective way monetary policy can contribute to economic conditions that foster the Federal Reserve's other two objectives: maximum employment and moderate long-term interest rates," Plosser said in prepared remarks at South Africa's Global Interdependence Center.

...

Plosser dissented on the Fed's last policy vote earlier in March, voicing his worry that yet another 0.75 percentage point rate cut was perhaps excessive.

The Fed has also fully embraced the lender of last resort role, expanding the range of collateral it accepts on loans and broadened access to emergency funds at the discount window to a wider array of financial institutions.

Some analysts fear this could eventually boost inflation, especially if the value of securities held by the Fed plummets, thereby forcing the central bank to print money to bolster its own balance sheet.

Plosser seemed to share these concerns to some extent.

"There seems to be a view that monetary policy is the solution to most, if not all, economic ills," he argued.

"Not only is this not true, it is a dangerous misconception and runs the risk of setting up expectations that monetary policy can achieve objectives it cannot attain."

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080328/bs_nm/economy_fed_safrica_plosser_dc;_ylt=AlvW50JauQIZK42gCfP1gMi573QA

[UpInArms]

35. Fed's Plosser - inflation is "a real phenomenon"

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSWEB002520080328

CAPE TOWN, March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. inflation is "a real phenomenon" and the Federal Reserve has to protect its credibility by remaining cautious, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser said on Friday.

Plosser was one of two voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee to oppose last week's 75 basis point cut in the Fed funds rate to 2.25 percent.

"Inflation is a very real phenomenon out there. It is there. We have to protect our credibility," he told a conference in Cape Town.

Initiatives by the Fed to ease problems on the money market had not provided "massive amounts of liquidity", he added.

[wordpix]

80. well, what is being inflated? Everything due to our Fossil Fuel Economy. As long as oil prices are

high, everything else will be, too. The only thing dropping is house prices, which is a good thing. I don't think a tiny 2 br/1 ba '50's fixer-upper at $450K is a reasonable price.

[UpInArms]

21. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 71.541 Change -0.092 (-0.13%)

EUR/USD: Why US Dollar Weakness May Not Be Over Yet

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/EUR_USD__Why_US_Dollar_Weakness_1206652408597.html

It’s been a wild month for the US dollar, as the currency plunged to a record low against the euro on March 16, rebounded to multi-week highs, and plummeted yet again this week. The moves suggest that, in the near-term, the EUR/USD pair could be returning to range trading, just like it did from November 2007 – February 2008. In the long-term, however, there are a few reasons why we don’t think the US dollar decline is over.

1. The Federal Reserve Is Not Done Cutting Interest Rates

There was much fanfare following the Federal Reserve’s 75bp cut to the fed funds rate on March 18, as the markets had speculated that the central bank would implement a 100bp reduction. Moreover, two dissenting votes by Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser in favor of less aggressive monetary policy action suggested that the FOMC would start to shift away from the deteriorating economy and jittery financial markets in order to focus on inflation pressures from rocketing energy and good costs. However, it didn’t take long before the markets woke up and realized the reality of the situation: the Fed is going to cut rates further.


At the time of writing, fed fund futures are fully pricing in a 25bp cut to 2.00 percent, and are betting on a 42 percent chance of a 50bp cut to 1.75 percent on April 30th. Indeed, as DailyFX Currency Analyst John Kicklighter discussed in his most recent Watch What the Fed Watches report, credit markets remain under considerable pressure as the 10 Year Junk-Bond Spread, Credit Card Delinquencies, and Mortgage Delinquencies have all worsened.

The economic picture looks quite dreary as well. This week alone we found out that S&P/Case-Schiller home price index plunged 10.7 percent in January from a year earlier to the lowest reading in nearly three years. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence tumbled to a fresh five-year low, boding ill for the next round of retail sales and general services sector reports. Businesses don’t appear to be faring well either, as durable goods orders slipped 1.7 percent and reflected a drop in spending plans in the next six months.


Clearly, the Federal Reserve has every reason in the world to continue cutting rates. True, they will likely cite some concerns about volatile energy and good prices. However, with core and headline CPI growth actually showing some slowing in February, the central bank will have some extra leeway to make monetary policy more accommodative. Furthermore, Chairman Bernanke and his fellow FOMC members have made it relatively clear that stability in the financial markets and the alleviation of the credit crunch remain their primary concern.

2. US Dollar Speculative Positioning Has Not Hit Extreme Levels Yet

According to the most recent COT report, speculative positioning suggests that the US dollar has much further to fall before hitting extreme levels. The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over the last 52 weeks. A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. As of last Tuesday, the 52 week COT index for the US dollar was at 69, indicating that plenty more selling is possible and in the longer-term, the trend is undeniably bearish – though does not rule out further correction in the coming weeks of trading.

3. The Middle East May Still Be Considering Dropping Their Dollar Pegs

With the greenback trading near record lows, countries like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are grappling with rapidly growing import price inflation and accelerated expansion as oil revenues rocket higher. In fact, during the third quarter of 2007, the Qatar Central Bank reported that inflation hit 13.7 percent (Qatar’s fiscal year ends on March 31). Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has reduced the federal funds rate by 300bps since September 2007 and the markets continue to price in additional cuts. Clearly, the synergies between the US and Persian Gulf countries have lessened quite a bit, making US monetary policy and more importantly, the US dollar, an uncomfortable fit for many Gulf Cooperation Council members, which includes Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the UAE. As a result, it is not surprising to hear that moving away from a dollar peg has been discussed by many of the GCC countries, but what are their options and how will it affect the US dollar?

...

British Pound Could Break 2.0 if Disaster Hits UK Mortgage Lenders

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/British_Pound_Could_Break_2_0_1206653915808.html

According to an article in the UK Times, Nationwide, the country’s second largest mortgage lender is planning to turn away business. We wonder why a mortgage lender would resort to this unless trouble was brewing in house. The Times argues that Nationwide is attempting to gain greater control over the amount that it lends and is doing so by increasing the rates on its tracker deals by more than 50bp. Efforts such as these are exactly why central banks including the UK and the US are struggling to contain the credit crisis. Despite interest rate cuts and liquidity injections, banks and mortgage lenders have reluctantly offered new loans while scrutiny has increased for potential borrowers, making it difficult for everyone. The liquidity crisis has hit the UK and US housing markets in more ways than one. If a mortgage lender announces major losses or even worse, is forced to fold shop, the British pound could easily break 2.0 and slip down to 1.9850. The news from Nationwide completely erased the British pound’s earlier gains which were driven by stronger economic data. The CBI retail sales survey rebounded this month, while fourth quarter total business investment beat expectations. More UK numbers are due for release tomorrow with Nationwide house prices, current account for the fourth quarter and the final Q4 GDP numbers due for release. Expect decent volatility in the British pound.

Dollar Lifted By Stronger GDP Numbers

The US dollar strengthened across the board following the stronger than expected final Q4 GDP report. Even though, the headline number remained unchanged, personal consumption was revised upwards while core PCE and the price index were revised downwards. This was good news for dollar bulls who have endured a weak of disappointing economic data. Jobless claims also pared back, but that does not alleviate our concerns about the labor market. Stronger spending and softer inflation reduces the need for a larger rate cut from the Federal Reserve, but this is Q4 data, which isn’t exactly reflective of current market conditions. Tomorrow’s personal income, personal spending and PCE deflator will be more telling. With negative job growth in January and February, the odds are certainly skewed towards dollar bearish data. The upward revision to GDP does not reduce the risk of a further slowdown in the US economy. The action will pick up next week with March non-farm payrolls due for release. Cutting interest rates alone will not be enough. If we have a third consecutive month of negative job growth, the Federal Reserve will be forced to look for alternative ways to stimulate growth.

...

[Ghost Dog]

28. Euro= USD 1.580, CHF 1.574 JPY 158.3 and GBP 0.792 at this time

ECB Weber: Euro Is Excessively Volatile Of Late
Fri, Mar 28 2008, 12:11 GMT
LUXEMBOURG (Dow Jones)--The euro is excessively volatile of late, European Central Bank governing council member Axel Weber said Friday.

"I generally don't comment on the euro's exchange rate level," Weber said, "but it has been excessively volatile in recent times."

/.. http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=0a6aa164-8d61-4046-9bf7-301c5ca624e9

ECB's Stark: ECB Has Shown Itself Ready To Take Needed Steps
Fri, Mar 28 2008, 12:11 GMT
CAPE TOWN -(Dow Jones)- The European Central Bank has shown itself ready to take the steps needed to ensure the liquidity necessary for proper market functioning, ECB executive board member Juergen Stark said Friday.

"The ongoing market turmoil reminds us that no country is immune to shocks originating outside its boundaries," Stark said in a speech on monetary policy.

Euro-zone inflation was 3.3% in February, the highest rate since the introduction of the euro in 1999.

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=bc8fc8c6-b539-4383-886a-70d8920e33b3

Euro Remains Firm - But Is There Weakness Underneath?
Friday, 28 March 2008 11:17:10 GMT
...On the economic front Japanese data left many traders perplexed as both inflation and Retail Trade increased while overall household spending and labor demand deteriorated. It appears that while the Japanese economy continues to try to claw its way out of stagnation and deflation the progress is slow and uneven. The latest bump in unemployment may only make the consumer more cautious leaving overall household spending moribund for the time being. Household spending remains the lynchpin of the Japanese economy and unless it improves, the BOJ will remain on the sideline despite growing evidence that inflationary pressures are begging to percolate in the system

In Europe meanwhile, the EURUSD received a boost from more hawkish comments from Axel Webber who emphasized the price pressures in EZ were alarmingly high suggesting that the ECB will not consider any easing in the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, the latest data from Retail PMI readings revealed that consumer demand in the 17 member union may be starting to slow down significantly. The Retail PMI report slipped below the 50 boom/bust level for the second time this year, led lower by a sharp drop in Italian numbers which registered their worst reading since the survey began.

Italy remains the weakest link amongst the top 3 EZ economies and if the situation there deteriorates further political tensions in the region could begin to undermine euro seemingly relentless rise as the interests of Italy, Spain and other southern European members could come in conflict with those of France and Germany where growth continues at a healthy pace.

However, EZ political tensions are unlikely to become a major story just yet. In the meantime, markets will continue to focus on the state of the US economy with today’s Personal Income/Personal Spending once again key. If spending exceeds income it will suggest further deterioration in US consumer’s balance sheet position, and may push the EURUSD all the way to 1.5900 as recession fera reverberate. A better result on the other hand could quell some of the worry and spur a much needed dollar relief rally.

/.. http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Euro_Remains_Firm___But_1206703056026.html?engine=rss&keyword=article

[DemReadingDU]

22. That trial in Columbus Ohio? Prosecutor tried Enron case

3/27/08 Prosecutors had experience in notable cases

For nearly two weeks, legal eyes focused on the man who presided over a company involved in the nation’s largest private-sector fraud case.

Lance K. Poulsen, a founder and former president of National Century Financial Enterprises, was convicted Wednesday of trying to intimidate a key witness in the fraud case against him.

Also convicted was Karl A. Demmler, a friend of Poulsen’s who served as a middleman with the witness.

National Century, based in Dublin, provided financing to health-care providers. As a result of its collapse, investors lost $1.9 billion, and 350 local employees lost their jobs.

Two federal prosecutors in the witness-intimidation trial are no strangers to high-profile cases.

Leo Wise, a trial attorney for the Department of Justice, was one of seven prosecutors who tried top Enron Corp. executives during a four-month trial in Houston in 2006.

Enron, an energy trader, was the nation's seventh-largest company. Its collapse in 2001 wiped out more than $60 billion in market value and more than $2 billion in employees’ retirement savings, along with thousands of jobs. Kenneth Lay was Enron’s founder, Jeffrey Skilling its chief executive.

Wise could not comment on the Enron trial, because of Justice Department policy.

But the Enron and National Century cases were similar in that both companies duped auditors and investors in part because their companies were revolutionary: Enron in the energy market, National Century in health-care financing.

Skilling and Lay were convicted on fraud and conspiracy charges. Skilling was sentenced to 24 years and four months in a federal prison; Lay died of heart disease before he could be sentenced.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Doug Squires prosecuted Roger D. Blackwell, a well-known Ohio State University business professor, in 2005.

That case, too, bore similarities to the Poulsen trial.

“Both defendants took the stand, and both lied,” Squires said. Both were “extremely intelligent and sophisticated,” and both had skilled defense attorneys.

Blackwell was a board member of Worthington Foods when it was being purchased by the Kellogg Co. Squires was on the team that proved he had tipped off 14 relatives and friends to the purchase, allowing them to make profits of $890,000 on the stock.

Blackwell was convicted on 19 counts of insider trading and conspiracy, sentenced to six years in prison and ordered to pay a $1 million fine.

Despite the attention granted certain cases, “high-profile fraud is no different than street crime,” Squires said. “At the end of the day, everyone is equal under the law, rich or poor.”

http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/03/27/natcen_notables.html?sid=101


link to previous articles...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3244528&mesg_id=3244573

[DemReadingDU]

27. JPMorgan to pay $2 mln to settle SEC fraud case - National Century Financial Enterprises

3/27/08 JPMorgan to pay $2 mln to settle SEC fraud case

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has agreed to pay $2 million to settle charges its subsidiaries helped now-bankrupt National Century Financial Enterprises carry out a fraud that resulted in $2.6 billion of investor losses, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Thursday.

The SEC said JPMorgan Chase Bank and Bank One served as indenture trustees for National Century, a Dublin, Ohio, healthcare financing company, from 1999 until 2002 when the company collapsed.

The SEC said that JPMorgan helped National Century make large improper transfers among program accounts, which caused collateral shortfalls and contributed to the company's downfall.

JPMorgan settled without admitting or denying the charges. A spokesman from JPMorgan confirmed the settlement but declined to provide additional details.

The SEC said JPMorgan would pay $1.3 million in disgorgement and about $700,000 in prejudgment interest to settle the charges.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Justice Department said a federal jury in Ohio convicted National Century's former chief executive Lance Poulsen of witness tampering in a criminal fraud case.

The witness tampering charge was linked to a key witness who was scheduled to testify in the trial of Poulsen and other executives for an alleged $2 billion fraud at National Century.

The Justice Department said Poulsen would be tried on fraud charges in August. Earlier this month, five other National Century executives were found guilty of scheming to deceive investors and credit rating agencies about the company's financial health.

http://www.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUSN2745312520080327

[UpInArms]

23. Today's Comedic Routine: Stimulus plan to create up to 600,000 jobs: Paulson

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080328/bs_nm/economy_paulson_taxes_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Friday that an economic stimulus program that will put $168 billion into consumers' hands this year and next could help create hundreds of thousands of new jobs.

"We know they're going to be helpful," Paulson said on CNN television. "These (tax rebate) checks should be a big part of adding 500,000 to 600,000 additional jobs this year."

Some 130 million Americans are to get tax rebate checks up to about $600 for individuals and $1,200 for couples, with the first of the checks to start flowing in early May.

On other issues, Paulson said it was important to maintain stable, orderly financial markets and said the Treasury was trying to help mortgage-holders who are in difficulty voluntarily work out repayment options with lenders.

Treasury announced earlier this week that the Internal Revenue Service will keep about 320 offices open on Saturday to encourage an estimated 20 million Americans who do not normally file a tax return to do so.

Only people who file returns will be eligible for rebate checks.

...more crap at link...

[Delphinus]

31. How is my $300

going to bring a job into this forlorn economy? Especially if it goes to pay freaking medical bills?

I wonder how many people are lapping up this drivel.

[Dr.Phool]

32. It's the cat piss talking.

Anyone who saw this weeks episode of South Park will understand it.

Kenny has a male cat spray him in the face, and it produces hallucinations that make LSD seem like bubble gum.

[Delphinus]

37. Haha!

:rofl:

Maybe *I* need to start taking some drugs!

[Warpy]

61. Yeah, those talking heads are all cheesed out of their minds

Something has to be going on at the top. Nobody, not even a psychopath, can lie this consistently without some sort of physical tic manifesting itself.

[ozymandius]

71. How the HELL did this rube get to be the head of Goldman Sachs?

This man cannot be a stranger to mathematical models demonstrating how money moves through the population. My guess is that he is willingly brain-dead to promote this notion as the right one to sustain an economy that has evolved to one predicated on endless spending.

[UpInArms]

72. brain-dead? Or are they bagging this asswipe's poop and pee

just like Dimson's?

[ozymandius]

73. If so, it explains a lot.

Batshit crazy, engorgers of their own rhetorical feces prima donnas circulate in this crowd.

[wordpix]

81. WTF? Paulsen is now on my head asshole-Bush shill list

[UpInArms]

34. Odd Crop Prices Defy Economics

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/28/business/28commodities.html?ex=1364356800&en=cb90de30aeec38d5&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Market regulators say they have ruled out deliberate market manipulation. But they, too, are baffled. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates the exchanges where these grain derivatives trade, has scheduled a forum on April 22 where market participants will discuss these anomalies and other pressure points arising in the agricultural markets.

The mechanics of the commodity markets are more complex than selling toothpaste, however. The anomalies are occurring between the price of a bushel of grain in the cash market and the price of that same bushel of grain, as determined by the expiration price of a futures contract traded in Chicago.

A futures contract is an agreement to deliver a specific amount of a commodity — 5,000 bushels of wheat, say — on a certain date in the future. Such contracts are important hedging tools for farmers, grain elevators, commodity processors and anyone with a stake in future grain prices. A futures contract that calls for delivery of wheat in July may trade for more or less for each bushel than today’s cash market price. But as each day goes by, its price should move a bit closer to that day’s cash price. And on expiration day, when the bushels of wheat covered by that futures contract are due for delivery, their price should very nearly match the price in the cash market, allowing for a little market friction or major delivery disruptions like Hurricane Katrina.

But on dozens of occasions since early 2006, the futures contracts for corn, wheat and soybeans have expired at a price that was much higher than that day’s cash price for those grains.

For example, soybean futures contracts expired in July at a price of $9.13 a bushel, which was 80 cents higher than the cash price that day, Professor Irwin said. In August, the futures expired at $8.62, or 68 cents above the cash price, and in September, the expiration price was $9.43, or 78 cents above the cash price.

Corn has been similarly eccentric. A corn futures contract expired last September at $3.36, which was a remarkable 55 cents above the cash price, but the contract that expired in March 2007 was roughly even with the cash price.

[Mojorabbit]

49. I wonder what this means?

Is it people speculating? I have no understanding of how the commodities market works.

[UpInArms]

51. it looks a lot like gambling/speculation

in that this was a stable market place but is now completely gyrational

:shrug:

[Zynx]

54. The open interest in commodities is relatively small.

The hedge funds have tremendous power in these relatively lightly traded markets.

[UpInArms]

36. Fremont Genl: FDIC Directs Company To Recapitalize or Sell Bank Unit

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fremont-genl-fdic-directs-company/story.aspx?guid=%7B0F0F43AC%2D01DB%2D4333%2DBFC1%2DD008CD5D6F28%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

Fremont General Corp. (FMT: 0.61, +0.01, +1.7%) said the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. issued a Supervisory Prompt Corrective Action Directive requiring the company to recapitalize its Fremont Investment & Loan bank unit within 60 days, or by May 26. Fremont General, a California financial services holding company, said it, the bank unit and the Fremont General Credit Corp. unit were directed to sell shares, accept an offer to be acquired and/or to divest themselves of the bank. The directive described the bank as being an "undercapitalized" depository institution. Fremont General announced Feb. 28 that the company and the bank hired Credit Suisse Securities (USA) and Sandler O'Neill & Partners to develop and implement strategic initiatives to raise additional capital, as well as explore the possible sale or merger of the company and/or the bank, or the sale of assets.

[Demeter]

38. Weren't They In Trouble in the Early 90's, too?

[UpInArms]

40. I'm not certain about the 90s thing - here's more poop on now, tho

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2829813220080328

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) - Fremont General Corp (FMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Friday that U.S. banking regulators declared its banking unit undercapitalized and has required the company to raise money or find a buyer in two months.

Fremont, which earlier this month received default notices related to $3.15 billion of subprime mortgages and said its survival could be threatened if it were sued, said that on Wednesday the company received a directive from the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) requiring it to take corrective action by May 26.

<snip>

Fremont, based in Brea, California, said that there is no assurance that it will be successful in its efforts to comply with the directive or otherwise address its capital needs.

<snip>

Fremont had been one of the 10 largest U.S. subprime mortgage lenders until regulators, including the FDIC, ordered it to stop risky lending last March.

...more at link...

and here's this:

http://interestrateroundup.blogspot.com/2008/02/risk-of-failures.html

(posted on February 29, 2008)

That brings me to some news that just broke in the last 24 hours: Troubled California S&L Fremont General just warned of additional write downs and reserve additions. This language should have us all sitting up and taking notice:

"... the Bank may need to record additional asset write-downs and reserves, which could result in further losses or, alternatively, will require the Bank to adjust downward its regulatory capital. In either case, such potential adjustments will further erode the Bank's total equity capital of $448.6 million that was reported in the Bank's Call Report publicly filed with the FDIC on January 30, 2008 for the year ended December 31, 2007. In addition, if the possible adjustments are ultimately recorded by the Bank, such adjustments could have an adverse effect on the Company's financial condition, results of operations and business."

AND

"Fremont General also has significant liquidity risk as a result of limited sources of cash available to satisfy its obligations. At December 31, 2007, Fremont General had $21.1 million in cash and cash equivalents for payment of ongoing operating expenses, debt service and inter-company settlements. Since March 2007 when the Company and the Bank first became subject to regulatory enforcement orders, the Company's traditional source of funding (dividends from the Bank) has been disrupted. Without the ability to rely on dividends from the Bank, the Company will require funds from other capital sources to meet its obligations."

Fremont then goes on to say it has retained Credit Suisse and Sandler O'Neill to help it fix its capital deficiency problem. A company sale, or the restructuring of Fremont's senior debt and preferred securities, are options on the table. It's suspending interest payments on certain subordinated debt immediately.

I am NOT suggesting Fremont will fail (even as the stock price was recently down 66% on the day). But this kind of news just underscores how some institutions are really hurting in a way we haven't seen in a long time. In sum, I believe outright failures will be making headlines over the coming 18 months, for the first time in a long time.

[UpInArms]

41. 10:10 EST markets in full-blown party mode

Dow 12,374.18 71.72 (0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,302.89 22.06 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,334.10 8.44 (0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 3.486% 0.048

NYSE Volume 515,492,406.25
Nasdaq Volume 261,009,734.375

10:00 am : The major indices extend their gains. Nine of the ten sectors are trending higher. The Nasdaq is outperforming, thanks to strength within the tech sector (+1.2%). Consumer discretionary (-0.6%) stands alone in negative territory, due to weakness in retailers (-1.7%).

Hitting the wires about five minutes ago, the final March University of Michigan Confidence reading came in at 69.5, compared to the expected number of 70.0.DJ30 +52.96 NASDAQ +19.56 SP500 +6.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 975/1362/199 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1052/1655/145 mln

09:35 am : The major indices open modestly higher. Helping to lift stocks was better than expected reading on February personal income, and news that Lehman Brothers (LEH) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup.

Retailers (-2.1%) are laggards in the early-going. JC Penney (JCP) issued downside first quarter earnings guidance to reflect weakness in consumer spending.DJ30 +33.62 NASDAQ +14.09 SP500 +3.87

09:14 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.0.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.5. Futures dip a bit after JC Penney (JCP) issued downside first quarter earnings guidance due to its customers facing macro-economic pressures in many areas.

[Demeter]

44. Somebody Got Goosed, For Sure!

[Demeter]

46. 11 AM and the Party's Over!

The Party's Over, it's time to call it a day.
They've burst your pretty balloon and taken the moon away.

It's time to wind up the masquerade.
Just make your mind up the piper must be paid.

The Party's Over.The candles ficker and dim.
You danced and dreamed through the night,
it seemed to be right just being with him.

Now you must wake up, all dreams must end.
Take off your make up, The Party's Over.
It's all over, my friend.

from the 1956 musical "Bells ARe Ringing", music by Jule Styne & lyrics by Adolph Green and Betty Comden, recorded by multiple artists, including Nat King Cole, Shirley Bassey, Bobby Darin, Judy Holliday, and of course, Frank Sinatra!

[Hugin]

78. Very good selection, Demeter.

:thumbsup:

[Demeter]

83. Thank You!

I'll be here all next week, I guess, doing the thread with UpInArms and any backup anyone else can offer (hint, hint)

[UpInArms]

48. Legg Mason eyes auction rate securities liquidity solutions - auctions failed

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/legg-mason-eyes-auction-rate/story.aspx?guid=%7BA11D628F%2D85C5%2D4EBD%2DA17D%2DB725F6FC53E3%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Legg Mason Inc. (LM) said Friday that it is actively exploring potential solutions to restore liquidity to shareholders of auction rate preferred securities worth about $672 million issued by seven closed-end funds. Legg Mason noted that the tight conditions in the industry which have resulted in failed auctions are due to liquidity issues caused by broader economic trends. The asset management firm also predicted that preferred auctions may continue to fail and stressed the importance of resolving the situation.

[DemocratInSoCal]

53. Mr. Creosote

And finally, monsieur, a wafer-thin mint.

No.

Oh sir! It's only a tiny little thin one.

No. Fuck off - I'm full...

Oh sir... it's only wafer thin.

Look - I couldn't eat another thing. I'm absolutely stuffed. Bugger off.

Oh sir, just... just one...

Oh all right. Just one.

Just the one, sir... voila... bon appetit...

[Demeter]

56. Is That Anything Like Mr. Cellophane?

[UpInArms]

57. it's from Monty Python's Meaning of Life

here's the YouTube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlK62rjQWLk

[MUAD_DIB]

58. And don't skimp on the paprika!

[Demeter]

60. That Was Gross

[TalkingDog]

66. Once I was in a midnight movie showing The Meaning of Life

And I realized just after Mr. Creosote ...umm....bursts.... that the guy across the way, who I can only describe as a "jock" type had brought his blind date, who obviously knew nothing of Monty Python, to see this movie.

The Holy Grail I could see as a first date picture, if you were fairly certain your humor and intelligence ran in the same stream, but The Meaning of Life? On a blind date????

I can imagine that they probably didn't go on a second date, as her reaction was much the same as yours; except very loud and in a movie theater with probably 30 other people in it.

[Maeve]

69. Oh, don't post that without a warning!

Some poor soul who doesn't know...Didn't watch the clip, but know the movie (bought it twice, VHS and DVD)

Sort of what happened to the housing market...

[DemReadingDU]

55. Nassim Taleb: Your models don't work

3/27/08 Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence By Stephanie Baker-Said

On a freezing day in March 2007, Nassim Taleb walked into a conference room at Morgan Stanley's Manhattan offices on 47th Street and Broadway to address a group of the firm's risk managers. His message: Your models don't work.

Using a whiteboard to scribble out his calculations, Taleb, now 48, began one of his rants, this time against stress tests -- Wall Street lingo for examining how a market rout will play out. Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events, Taleb said.

``Past shortfall doesn't predict future shortfall,'' the options trader turned best-selling author recalls telling the assembled group of about 40. The risk managers, part of a tribe of mathematical model makers known in the finance world as quants, stared back at him blankly, and a debate ensued, according to people who were there.

Only six months later, Morgan Stanley experienced its own rout. The world's second-biggest mergers adviser announced in December that it had written down its subprime-related holdings by $9.4 billion after the firm's traders misjudged how fast and far prices of the debt would fall. Their risk management had failed.

The Lebanese-born Taleb, a balding man who labels himself a philosopher of randomness, has an eerie knack for timing things right. His most recent book, ``The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable'' (Random House), came out in May 2007, just months before the subprime fiasco rocked global markets and led banks to announce at least $208 billion worth of writedowns. The book's message offered something of a preview of the crisis: that we're all blind to rare events and routinely fool ourselves into believing we can predict risks and rewards.


The message of ``The Black Swan'' -- whose title describes a bird once thought not to exist, until it was found in Australia in the 17th century -- has penetrated Wall Street trading rooms, says Aaron Brown, a risk manager at Greenwich, Connecticut-based AQR Capital Management LLC, which manages about $8.6 billion in hedge fund assets.


more...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aHfkhe8.C._8&refer=home

[Warpy]

63. "Blind to rare events" describing the subprime fiasco?

Oh, bosh. A look at the Economy board over the past few years will turn up a lot of people who saw the approaching train wreck quite clearly. The warning signs have been clear for a very long time. It took a rare combination of stupid and self deluded to miss them.

Of course we're not highly educated, highly paid economists.

[TalkingDog]

67. A conspiracy of self-interest

There doesn't have to be a spoken conspiracy. Just a tacit agreement that the status quo should or must be maintained. Everything else takes care of itself.

[girl gone mad]

75. Yeah, the premise of the book is nonsense.

At least in relation to our current crisis. This wasn't an unexpected event that came out of the blue. It was widely predicted and widely discussed on the internet. The only people blind to it were those who chose to be blind.

I've noticed a lot of people trying to build careers for themselves as if the predicted this shit storm. Funny, I've been reading about this issue for over 4 years and I've never heard of any of them.

[fedsron2us]

76. Real Estate Booms and Busts are hardly rare events

Here in the UK the last one happened in the late 1980s to 1990s. Maybe Taleb needs to get out more.

[DemReadingDU]

59. bonddad: It's Time to Reregulate Business

3/28/08
Over the last 4-5 years we have seen an astonishing amount of problems in the business community. And it's not just a minor incident here and there; it's everywhere. From the complete breakdown in the financial sector to toy recalls to meat recalls every industry that has "self-regulated" has shown that it can't.

Here's the basic problem. Capitalism is based on greed. Some greed is good. It drives people to make better products which benefits us all. Too much greed leads to major problems. The trick is to find the appropriate amount of greed to let out of the bottle. Right now we have way too much greed out there. And that is causing major problems.

Something I've been seeing from the Republican talking heads is the line that the Democrats want to reregulate business and that would be anti-competitive. Here's my response: the system as it currently stands is endangering our way of life and our very lives. Between

-- toys that might kill our children,

-- a food safety system that isn't working AT ALL

-- airlines that might be flying unsafe airplanes and

-- an entire financial system that is shall we say screwed up (Bear Stearns anybody?)

it's clear something isn't working. As a result, something has to change.

more...
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/28/71230/6141

[hatrack]

68. Oops! Looks like that extra $100 billion didn't help!

:eyes:

[wordpix]

82. from China, no less---pretty soon, they'll be here to take over our national monuments & parks

[Zynx]

84. The Fed is not borrowing from China. They have tools at their own disposal.

[UpInArms]

70. end o' the week numbers and blather

Dow 12,216.40 86.06 (0.70%)
Nasdaq 2,261.18 19.65 (0.86%)
S&P 500 1,315.22 10.44 (0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 3.466% 0.068

NYSE Volume 3,687,043,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,801,278,500

4:30 pm : Friday marked a negative end to the week for Wall Street. Stocks fell due to pessimistic news out of the financial sector, and warnings from a major department store.

The S&P 500 Retailing Index (-2.7%) and consumer discretionary sector were laggards after department store JCPenney (JCP 37.48, -3.04) issued downside guidance for its first quarter, which ends in April. The company expects earnings of $0.50 per share, versus the $0.75 consensus estimate. The company cited weak sales through the Easter holiday, and noted its customers are feeling negative macro-economic pressures from many areas.

Apollo Group (APOL 41.21, -15.13) was the worst performing consumer discretionary name. Traders were disappointed with the for-profit education provider's earnings report. The stock plummeted 27%, which is the largest decline in the company's history.

Financials once again garnered the market’s attention, and traded in choppy fashion. The sector was a leader in the early going after Lehman Brothers (LEH 37.87, -0.84) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup. Citi said Lehman had plenty of liquidity, which helped ease fears that Lehman would collapse in the same manner as Bear Stearns (BSC 10.78, -0.45).

Financials were unable to hold their gains, however, as traders digested negative comments from Oppenheimer. The firm said that banks’ earnings do not support the current level of dividend yields. Currently, banks have a dividend yield of 5.9%, which is the highest since 1990. Oppenheimer said that financial firms will trade at least 25% lower from current levels.

Thrifts & mortgages (-5.2%) was the worst performing financial group. Fannie Mae (FNM 26.02, -1.95) and Freddie Mac (FRE 25.45, -1.63) were the main laggards. Bloomberg.com reported that the two companies may raise as much as $20 billion to buy securities.

Tech (-0.4%) outperformed on a relative basis after Banc of America said it expects Apple (AAPL 143.01, +2.76) to deliver its 3G iPhone in the second quarter.

The market responded positively to a better than feared February personal income and consumption report, however it was not enough to keep the stock market in positive territory.

Personal income rose 0.5%, which topped the consensus estimate of 0.3%. Personal spending met expectations with a 0.1% rise, however, it is the lowest level since September 2006. The core-PCE deflator—one of the Fed’s favorite inflation measures—met estimates with a 0.1% rise. Adjusted for inflation, income rose 0.5% and spending was flat.

Commodities as a whole saw selling interest, with the CRB Index dropping 1.4%. Crude oil got clipped on news that oil is now flowing through an Iraqi pipeline that exploded yesterday. Oil closed down 2.3%, but still finished the week with a healthy 3.2% gain.

For the week, the stock market fell 1.1%. The quarter ends on Monday, and the stock market is set for its largest quarterly decline since 2002.
DJ30 -86.06 NASDAQ -19.65 NQ100 -0.6% R2K -1.3% SP400 -0.9% SP500 -10.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1928/940/1.76 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2057/1056/1.35 bln

3:30 pm : The major indices fall to fresh session lows. There is not any fundamental news behind the recent downturn, and is likely a technical based move.

For the month, the stock market is down 1.0% after this session's downturn. If current levels hold, the S&P 500 will have posted a loss for five consecutive sessions--the first time since 1990. Monday marks the end of the quarter. The S&P is down more than 10% this quarter, which is its worst showing since 2002.DJ30 -70.75 NASDAQ -16.15 SP500 -8.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1864/976/1.42 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1967/1129/1.0 bln

3:00 pm : The major indices continue to trade with modest losses. Within the S&P 500, 63% of stocks are trending lower. For-profit education provider Apollo Group (APOL 41.96, -14.38) is the main laggard with a massive 26% decline--its largest one day percent decline in its roughly 14-year history as a publicly traded company. Apple (AAPL 143.56, +3.31) is providing leadership.DJ30 -36.97 NASDAQ -9.45 SP500 -4.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1794/1019/1.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1884/1189/883 mln