STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday April 4, 2008

[Demeter]

Source: DU

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday April 4, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 292
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2630 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2356 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2647
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON April 3, 2008

Dow........ 12,626.03 +17.11 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq...... 2,363.30 +1.90 (+0.08%)
S&P 500..... 1,369.31 +1.78 (+0.13%)
Gold future... 909.70 +9.50 (+1.04%)
30-Year Bond 4.39% UNCH (UNCH)
10-Yr Bond... 3.59% +0.01 (+0.22%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout
the country. Details & links are added as they become
available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing
something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions
Citizens For Legitimate
Government>

---

No link yet.

[Demeter]

1. Tax Payer Bail-Out Ideas Stabilize US Dollar, Trip Gold BY GARY DORSCH

Disclaimer http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


It was “April Fool's” day, and Wall Street was busy spinning bad financial news into bouts of irrational exuberance. News of a $19 billion write-down of toxic sub-prime mortgage debt at Swiss bank UBS and a $4 billion hit at Deutsche Bank might have sparked a panic sell-off in global stock markets a few weeks ago. But on “April Fool's” day, the Dow Jones Industrials soared 391-points, and the broader S&P 500 Index jumped 3.6%, posting its best 2nd-quarter start since 1938.

Shares of UBS soared 18% after the Swiss bank said it could plug the craters in its balance sheet with a $15 billion rights offering, led by a syndicate of JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs. Shares of Lehman Bros jumped 22% after it raised $4 billion from the sale of convertible preferred shares, and squeezing bearish speculators in LEH puts in the process.

Before the “April Fool's” day festivities, the S&P 500 Index had posted five straight months of losses, and a 10% slide in the first quarter. In its infinite wisdom, the stock market has already discounted a recession, which probably arrived in the first quarter. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected -8.1% lower in Q’1 from a year ago, down from rosy projections of +4.7% at the beginning of the quarter.

But the badly battered US financial sector soared 15% on “April Fool's” day, after British PM Gordon Brown called on the Group of Seven central bankers to stop worrying about “moral hazard” and start backing a joint plan to recapitalize global banks and buy-out the toxic sub-prime mortgages to rescue the banking system. Of course, such a bailout initiative would be funded with taxpayer’s money, with a small price of tougher regulation of the industry. “We have got to make these changes immediately,” Brown said on April 1st...

Goldman Sachs figures losses from toxic sub-prime mortgage debt at US banks could reach $460 billion, and only $120 billion have been recognized so far. Losses worldwide could hit $1.2 trillion. Such a meltdown could topple a few banks along the way, and unleash even more turmoil in global stock markets. So many traders are now betting that the G-7 central bankers and finance ministers will endorse a tax payer funded bailout for the banks at their upcoming April 11th meeting.

The earliest hint of a G-7 bailout plan was first proposed by Japan’s financial services minister Yoshimi Watanabe on March 24th. “It is essential for the US to understand that given Japan’s lesson, public fund injection into the financial sector is unavoidable. We could convey this lesson at the G-7 central bank meeting, and we are prepared to take coordinated action, to help resolve the issue,” Watanabe said.

Is speculation of a US government led bailout to rescue the banking industry a realistic proposition, or just a nasty “April Fool's” joke? Washington might be left little choice but to lead a taxpayer bailout for banks choking on toxic sub-prime mortgages, because a rising tide of home foreclosures could crush the US economy without such a plan. There are hundreds of billions of dollars worth of home mortgages in arrears, in foreclosure, or that homeowners have walked away from. US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson now says he’s flexible to new ideas of intervention.

Free market capitalism is out of favor in Washington, and in its place, government intervention is the norm of the day. Voters are demanding immediate help, especially after the Fed-engineered bailout of Bear Stearns and its massive financial assistance to other Wall Street dealers. The Bear Stearns bailout has opened the doors for US politicians facing re-election to call for bailouts of distressed homeowners....There is a long history of US government bailouts. In the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, more than 1,000 savings and loan institutions failed, leading to a federal bailout totaling roughly $125 billion. In 1975, President Ford provided a struggling New York City with a $7 billion loan package. President Clinton came to Mexico’s aid in 1995 after a sharp devaluation of the peso, with $50 billion of loans...Congress bailed out Lockheed Aircraft in 1971 and Chrysler in 1979 with loan guarantees. In 1984, Continental Illinois was effectively taken over by the Federal government. After the September 11th terror attacks, Congress authorized $5 billion in cash to help shore up the airline industry and $10 billion in loan guarantees. Most recently, the Bernanke Fed guaranteed $30 billion of toxic sub prime mortgage debt sitting in Bear Stearns with taxpayer money.

Just how costly a US government bailout to purchase existing sub-prime mortgage loans is anyone’s guess, but it’s probably much cheaper than the cost of the FDIC paying off depositors of failed banks. It would certainly be much less than the $845 billion that Congress has already appropriated for military operations, reconstruction, embassy costs, and US bases and foreign aid programs in Iraq and Afghanistan...A massive US government bailout would add hundreds of billions to the outstanding supply of US Treasuries, but greatly relieve the stress in the banking system. It could unleash a rapid unwinding of “safe haven” positions in US 2-year T-notes, and lift US interest rates sharply higher. It could also trigger a reversal of the Fed’s rate cuts since September and a tighter US money policy in the second half of 2008.

With the yield on the US Treasury’s 2-year note jumping to 1.95% this week, from a record low of 1.35% two weeks ago, it’s already narrowed the scope of a Fed rate cut in April to a quarter-point. In testimony on Capitol Hill on April 3rd, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke said, “The effects of monetary policy are felt over a period of time and we expect to see positive effects of these policies going forward.” Until then, Fed policy might stay on hold at 2% because, “there’s a chance in the first half there might be a slight contraction,” Bernanke said....Expectations that the Fed’s rate cutting campaign is nearing an end has stabilized the US dollar, with the greenback’s strongest gains seen against the Japanese yen, which offers negative rates of interest after adjusting for inflation, and the British pound in anticipation of gradual rate cuts by the Bank of England. The Bank of Canada is expected to match any residual Fed rate cut in this cycle.

The Gold market was rattled after its historic rally fizzled out above the psychological $1,000/oz level, and surprising moves by the Federal Reserve to drain some excess cash out of the US banking system after the rescue of Bear Stearns. But Mr. Bernanke and his radical band of inflationists at the Fed have expanded the MZM money supply by 16.8% from a year ago, which could ignite hyper-inflation in the US economy once the monetary stimulus in the pipeline starts to take effect.

Crude oil remains perched above the once unthinkable $100/barrel level as global demand should outstrip supply later this year, and as global investors seek a hedge against the Fed’s cheap money policies. If a G-7 government led bailout of the banks should fail to materialize, the Fed won’t be able to rescue the dollar with higher rates, and sentiment in the gold market could turn bullish again.


How Much Longer Will Saudi Arabia Support the US$?

With oil soaring to a record $112 a barrel, and the Fed working overtime to prevent a meltdown in the global financial system, US President George Bush was looking for a quick fix to stabilize the US stock markets, and sent his trusted deputy Dick Cheney to the Middle East to meet with Saudi King Abdullah, the de-facto leader of OPEC. In advance of Cheney’s 4-1/2 hour meeting at the King’s farm on March 22nd, crude oil in New York tumbled by $5/barrel, briefly slipping below $100/barrel.

“Obviously, we want to see an increase in oil production,” said White House spokeswoman Dana Perino. “The president wants OPEC to take into consideration that the US economy has weakened, partly because of higher oil prices. We think more supply would help, and I don’t anticipate that the vice president would have any other message than that one,” Perino said.

The US “Plunge Protection Team” is struggling to rescue an American economy that is sagging under the weight of sliding home prices, sharply higher food and energy prices, and a banking crisis, and with little luck in persuading Riyadh to increase oil production. Instead, OPEC blames the US Treasury, which has done nothing to prop-up the weak dollar, which boosts US exports but makes oil more expensive.

Two days later, Cheney hinted there was no quick fix from king Abdullah. “We’ve seen the price of oil rise dramatically to over $100 a barrel. It reflects the realities in the marketplace. There is very little spare capacity in the global oil market, and there is increasing demand for oil in China, India and in the oil producing nations themselves. The price of oil reflects the new realities in the marketplace,” he said.

Cheney’s visit to the Persian Gulf monarchs also included a personal plea to avoid pulling the plug on the US dollar’s artificial life support. If the Arab oil kingdoms decide to ditch their dollar pegs to control inflation and diversify their overseas assets to earn higher returns in other currencies or in gold and commodities, the net result could be the loss of the US dollar’s reserve currency status.

The vice president’s itinerary for his nine-day tour, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey, was also designed for saber rattling with Tehran. Cheney’s hawkish threats over Iran’s nuclear weapons program keeps the Arab oil kingdoms wedded to the dollar, since the US military is the guarantor of the Arabian Gulf’s security. But the cost of sticking with the archaic dollar peg is intolerably high, and threatening social unrest in the kingdoms.

The Bernanke Fed is expanding the US M3 money supply at a 17% annualized rate, the fastest in history, so the Saudi central bank is expanding its M3 money supply at a faster 24% rate in order to prevent the Saudi riyal from rising against the US dollar. The Saudi central bank matched the Fed’s 75 basis point rate cut on March 18th, cutting bank deposit rates to 2.25%, which is far below the inflation rate.

In turn, the explosive money supply growth and negative rates of interest are fanning the flames of inflation in the desert kingdom, hitting 8.7% in February, a 27-year high. The dollar peg is fuelling inflation by making imports from Asia and Europe more expensive as the US currency sinks on global markets. Rents led the rise in Saudi inflation, surging 18%, followed by food costs up 13 percent.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain control 40% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves. And the recent commodity price boom has swelled the coffers of governments that control commodity exports or heavily taxes the revenues earned by private commodity exporters. As a result, the assets managed by Persian Gulf sovereign wealth funds (SWF’s) have ballooned to roughly $2.5 trillion from $472.5 billion in 2004.

Funds derived from oil and gas export revenues account for roughly two-thirds of the total assets held by sovereign wealth funds (SWF’s), with the rest controlled by Asian surplus exporters. Saudi Arabia is planning a SWF for $900 billion, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority controls $875 billion. The Kuwait Investment Authority oversees $213 billion, and the Qatar Investment Authority had an estimated value of $60 billion at the end of February.

By 2015, the Persian Gulf SWF’s could grow to $6-7 trillion. If Chinese, Russian, and Korean SWF’s are taken into account, the total global SWF value could top $12 trillion, or nearly the size of the US economy. One has to wonder what direction the Persian Gulf SWF’s will take, if the Illinois senator Barack Obama wins the US presidency in November, and hastily withdraws US troops from Iraq.

[Demeter]

2. Today's Reports

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

Nonfarm Payrolls

Briefing.com -70K
Consensus -50K
Prior -63K


Unemployment Rate

Briefing.com 4.9%
Consensus 5.0%
Prior 4.8%


Hourly Earnings

Briefing.com 0.3%
Consensus 0.3%
Prior 0.3%


Average Workweek

Briefing.com 33.7
Consensus 33.7
Prior 33.7

[UpInArms]

19. March nonfarm payrolls down 80,000 - Feb nonfarm payrolls down rev 76,000 vs 63,000 prev

01. U.S. March unemployment rate 5.1% vs 4.8% in Feb.
8:32 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

03. U.S. March payroll drop weakest since March 2003
8:32 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

05. U.S. March jobless rate highest since Sept. 2005
8:32 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

06. Dollar down 0.4% at 101.83 vs yen after jobs data
8:32 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

08. U.S. March nonfarm payrolls down 80,000 vs 63,000 expected
8:31 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

01. U.S. March average workweek up 6 minutes to 33.8 hours
8:30 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

02. U.S. March average hourly earnings up 0.3%, up 3.6% yr-on-yr
8:30 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

03. U.S. March construction jobs down 51,000
8:30 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

04. U.S. March private sector jobs down 62,000
8:30 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

05. U.S. March factory jobs down 48,000
8:30 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

06. U.S. Feb. nonfarm payrolls down rev 76,000 vs 63,000 prev
8:30 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

07. U.S. March unemployment rate highest since Sept. '05
8:30 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

08. U.S. March unemployment rate 5.1% vs 4.8% in Feb.
8:30 AM ET, Apr 04, 2008 | Comments: 0 | Tags: none

edited to continue to add report information

[Ghost Dog]

23. U.S. Lost 80,000 Jobs in March; Unemployment Rate Rose to 5.1%

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. lost jobs for a third consecutive month in March and unemployment rose to the highest level in two and a half years, pointing to an economy that may already be in a recession.

Payrolls shrank by 80,000, more than forecast, after a decrease of 76,000 in February that was more than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 5.1 percent, the highest since September 2005, from 4.8 percent.

Job losses have shaken consumer confidence, contributing to a weakening in spending that has almost stalled growth. The report reinforces forecasts that the Federal Reserve, whose Chairman Ben S. Bernanke this week acknowledged the economy may face a recession, will need to do more to prevent further deterioration.

``The odds of a recession are now very high,'' Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York, said before the report. ``It will be a miracle if the economy is able to keep growing as the lack of a paycheck will put a brake on consumer spending. The Fed still has its work cut out for it.''

Economists had projected payrolls would fall by 50,000 following a previously reported 63,000 drop in February, according to the median of 79 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Economists' forecasts ranged from a decline of 150,000 to a gain of 65,000.

Revisions

Revisions subtracted 67,000 jobs from the originally reported figures for January and February. The last time the economy lost jobs for at least three consecutive months coincided with the start of the Iraq War in 2003.

The jobless rate was forecast to rise to 5 percent from 4.8 percent in February, the survey said.

Factory payrolls shrank by 48,000 workers, the biggest decrease since July 2003, Labor said. The drop included a loss of 24,000 jobs in the auto manufacturing and parts industries, which the government said ``largely'' reflected a the effects of strike at a supplier for General Motors Corp. Economists had forecast a decline of 35,000 in manufacturing jobs.

...

Builders eliminated 51,000 jobs after a decline of 37,000 in February.

Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, added 13,000 workers last month after an increase of 6,000 in February, the report showed. Retail payrolls decreased by 12,400 after dropped 46,700 in February.

Payrolls at financial firms decreased by 5,000 jobs, after declining 11,000 the prior month, Labor said.

Job losses in financial markets are mounting following the collapse in subprime lending.

...

The average work week lengthened to 33.8 hours from 33.7 hours. Average weekly hours worked by production workers increased to 41.3 from 41.2, while overtime increased to 4.1 hours from 4 hours. That brought average weekly earnings up by $3.47 to $603.67 last month.

Hourly Wages

Workers' average hourly wages rose in line with forecasts to $17.86, up 5 cents, or 0.3 percent. Hourly earnings were 3.6 percent higher than a year earlier. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.3 percent increase from the prior month and a 3.6 percent gain for the 12-month period.

Americans, whose spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, are less upbeat about finding work, a Conference Board report showed last week. The share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful fell and the proportion who said jobs are hard to get jumped, pushing consumer confidence down to a five-year low in March.

More and more economists are forecasting a recession as job, retail-sales and manufacturing data have deteriorated this year. Martin Feldstein, the Harvard economics professor who heads the research group that determines when downturns begin, said last month that a contraction had begun.

``It now appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly,'' Bernanke said in testimony to Congress on April 2. He said he expected unemployment to move ``somewhat higher,'' in line with recent data showing a ``softer labor market.''

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aOyYQwHGdyyY&refer=economy

[UpInArms]

30. it appears that they revised January lower by an additional 54,000 jobs lost

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/payrolls-contract-jobless-rate-spikes/story.aspx?guid=%7B205C6DC6%2D40DA%2D4BBE%2D8AE4%2DE656839AD1E0%7D

Adding to the sense of weakness in employment, payrolls in January and February were revised lower by a cumulative 67,000.

Job losses have totaled 232,000 since the New Year, an average of 77,000 lost jobs per month.

The separate household survey showed a decline in employment of 24,000 in March, and a 434,000 rise in unemployment. As a result, the unemployment rate rose.

[Roland99]

32. But this is good. This means inflation will be tamed and.. umm... what else?

Oh, less demand for oil/gas so those will go down and that will cut costs for everyone.

So, see? Think Happy Thoughts!!




(Someone pass the bong back around?)

[Ghost Dog]

56. Economists say March payroll declines eliminate doubt of a recession

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The US economy has now been shedding jobs for three consecutive months, nearly eliminating any doubt in the minds of economists that the US is in recession.

"Clear and unmistakable recession signals from the labor market," Bear Stearns economists called today's numbers.

"I don't quite understand why some protest the notion the US is in recession," said Stephen Wieting of Citigroup.

"I think it's a very consistent report with the fundamental weakness for the economy," said Harm Bandholz of Unicredit. "I think more and more the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will call this a recession," Bandholz said.

...

Meanwhile, market reaction has been mixed since today's weaker-than-expected report. Vitner said the markets are likely waiting for the release of the first quarter GDP report, and whether the economy will begin to "feed on itself," or create "knock on effects". Such a scenario, in which layoffs lead to reduced spending which leads to further tightening of businesses, is characteristic of a "classic downturn," Vitner said.

Tony Crecenzi of Miller Tabak is of the opinion that when employment data are "seemingly their most vile, the financial markets eventually turn their backs on the employment data".

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=7e86d29a-b5be-475e-88a2-9ce9aa2a0154

[UpInArms]

55. US economic gauges fell last week - ECRI

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00390120080404

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic growth and its annualized growth rate were lower in the latest week, evidence that the downturn in the U.S. economy shows no sign of abating, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.9 in the week to March 28 from 131.7 in the prior week, downwardly revised from 131.8.

The fall was due to higher interest rates and jobless claims, along with slower housing, and was partly offset by higher stock prices, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The index's annualized growth rate slid to minus 10.7 percent from minus 10.0 percent. This reading hit the same low in mid-February, and is at its lowest since October 2001.

...more...

[Demeter]

3. AP / Oil prices rebound after falling $1

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

Fri Apr 4, 1:46 AM ET

BANGKOK, Thailand - Crude oil futures rebounded Friday in Asia after falling $1 overnight as the U.S. currency stabilized and prompted selling by investors that had been buying crude as a hedge against inflation. Oil prices have held above $100 a barrel for more than a month, largely on the view that crude, gold and other hard commodities are effective hedges against a falling dollar and rising prices.

As the dollar has started to recover against the yen and euro, investors have been less prone to pour money into oil for reasons unrelated to supply and demand.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery rose 29 cents to $104.12 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midmorning in Singapore.

The Nymex crude contract settled $1 lower in the previous session at $103.83 a barrel.

Prices, analysts say, remain caught between those that want to buy oil as a hedge against another reversal in the dollar and those saying slowing economies worldwide will cut demand for fuel and energy.

On Wednesday, the front-month crude futures contract gained nearly $4 after a report showed a bigger-than-expected fall in U.S. gasoline inventories.

Since the report, gasoline prices have led the market. The drawdown in gasoline inventories completely overshadowed a massive 7.3 million barrels increase in crude oil stocks. Traders are also focusing on the low refinery utilization of 82.4 percent, which suggests further stock tightening for motor fuel just ahead of the Northern Hemisphere summer driving season.

But Wednesday's inventory report also showed U.S. gasoline demand remains weak despite ticking slightly higher.

This week the prognoses for global economic growth turned bleaker, with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Wednesday publicly raising the prospect of a U.S. recession for the first time. His comments prompted some investors to head back into oil on the view that his remarks indicated further interest rate cuts from the Fed — which would likely send the dollar plunging again.

Traders will be paying close attention to Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls numbers for direction in the oil market into next week. Earlier Thursday, data from the Labor Department showed initial claims for jobless benefits last week surged to their highest level in more than two years, raising expectations for the third straight decline in payroll jobs.

Heating oil futures rose 0.75 cent to $2.9303 a gallon while gasoline prices added 0.27 cent to $2.727 a gallon. Natural gas futures fell 2.2 cents to $9.395 per 1,000 cubic feet.

[Demeter]

5. Venezuela passes 'windfall' oil tax

http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/86489A3B-542A-4335-A7BF-D6BE49C73121.htm


The Venezuelan parliament has approved a "windfall" tax on oil firms to boost its revenues from record world prices. The tax would take 50 per cent of oil revenues above $70 per barrel and an additional 60 per cent of revenues over $100 per barrel.

The law requires a second approval by the National Assembly before it takes effect.

Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president, has already nationalised part of the country's oil industry - a move that has led to an international legal battle with US oil giant ExxonMobil.

"Because of high oil prices, oil companies have excessive earnings that go beyond reasonable levels of profitability," Angel Rodriguez, a Venezuelan parliamentarian, told ABN, the country's state news agency.. "One way to distribute them to our people, who are the owners of the oil, is to create this tax." The tax will apply to both international and national companies, including PDVSA, Venezuela's state oil company.

Exxon battle

Thursday's move will give Chavez new funds to shore up popularity among the nation's poor majority, who have backed him for almost a decade but are increasingly critical of his government for food shortages and rampant crime.

Lawmakers could give the bill final approval next week.

PDVSA took control of part of Venezuela's oil field last year as part of the nationalisation programme, pushing out ExxonMobil and the Conoco oil giants in the process. The showdown led Exxon to seek court injunctions for up to $12 billion in compensation, a move Chavez described as "legal terrorism" and threatened to retaliate by halting oil sales to the US. A London court last month threw out one of the orders.

[Demeter]

6. Oil Rises, Gasoline Surges to Record on U.S. Fuel-Supply Drop By Mark Shenk

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=addyR_Oco5Lk&refer=home


April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than $3 a barrel and gasoline surged to a record after an Energy Department report showed that U.S. supplies of the motor fuel fell a third week.
Gasoline stockpiles declined 4.53 million barrels to 224.7 million barrels last week, the biggest drop since August, the report showed. The dollar fell against the euro for the first time in three days, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge.

``The robust supply cushion for gasoline appears to be vanishing before our eyes,'' said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York.

Crude oil for May delivery rose $3.85, or 3.8 percent, to settle at $104.83 a barrel at 2:46 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 59 percent from a year ago.
Gasoline for May delivery rose 13.44 cents, or 5.1 percent, to $2.7736 a gallon in New York, a record settlement price. Futures touched $2.7836, an intraday record for gasoline to be blended with ethanol, known as RBOB, which began trading in October 2005. Pump prices are following futures higher. Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, rose 0.1 cent to a record $3.827 a gallon, AAA, the nation's largest motorist organization, said today on its Web site. Crude oil is often pulled higher by gasoline in the spring and summer when refiners bolster output of the fuel, increasing demand for the raw material.

U.S. Economy

The dollar fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said that the U.S. economy may contract in the first half of this year. Bernanke spoke to Congress's Joint Economic Committee today.
Oil futures rose to a record $111.80 a barrel on March 17 in New York as investors purchased commodities in response to the plunging U.S. dollar. Gold, silver and platinum futures were also higher today.``The surge in prices over the last month was not driven by any change in the oil-market fundamentals,'' said Rachel Ziemba an analyst at RGE Monitor, an economic research company in New York. ``The primary reason for the rise in prices was the flow of funds by investors looking for a safe haven in the face of the credit crisis.''Gasoline inventories were forecast to decline 2.75 million barrels, according to the median of 15 responses in a Bloomberg News survey.

`Real Eye-Opener'

``The gasoline drop was a real eye-opener,'' said Rick Mueller, director of oil practice at Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts. ``Supplies are falling when we aren't even close to the driving season. We should be building stocks ahead of the driving season, not seeing them drop.''U.S. gasoline demand increases during the summer, when Americans take to the highways for vacations. The peak- consumption period lasts from the Memorial Day weekend in late May to Labor Day in early September.

Refineries operated at 82.4 percent of capacity last week, up 0.2 percentage point from the week before, the report showed. Plants used 87 percent of capacity during the same week last year. Utilization dropped 1.7 percentage points in the week ended March 21 to 82.2 percent of capacity, the lowest since October 2005, the department said in last week's report. Lower refinery margins, or crack spreads, last month reduced the incentive of refiners to process oil into products, including gasoline and diesel fuel. The margin for making a barrel of crude oil into one of gasoline was negative on March 17 for the first time since February 2005, according to closing futures prices. The spread rose as high as $14.656 a barrel today.

[JNelson6563]

14. What a concept!

"Because of high oil prices, oil companies have excessive earnings that go beyond reasonable levels of profitability," Angel Rodriguez, a Venezuelan parliamentarian, told ABN, the country's state news agency.. "One way to distribute them to our people, who are the owners of the oil, is to create this tax." The tax will apply to both international and national companies, including PDVSA, Venezuela's state oil company.

:toast:

Julie

[Ghost Dog]

72. Oil gains 2 percent as dollar slips

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose about 2 percent on Friday as weakness in the U.S. dollar following a batch of soft jobs data outweighed fears of a demand slowdown in the world's biggest energy consumer.

News of a fire at an Exxon Mobil refinery in Los Angeles supported the gains, sparking fears over gasoline supply heading into the summer driving season.

U.S. crude CLc1> rose $2.01 to $105.85 a barrel by 1:50 p.m. EDT (1750 GMT) while London Brent LCOc1> crude gained $1.63 to $104.15.

The dollar dropped versus the euro after a U.S. government report showed employers slashed payrolls a third straight month in March, cutting 80,000 jobs. It was the biggest monthly job decline in five years.

"The payrolls data was initially supportive as the dollar weakened," said Eric Wittenauer, energy analyst at Wachovia Securities.

A weak U.S. dollar can support nominal prices for all commodities denominated in the currency, in part because it boosts non-U.S. purchasing power and draws money from investors seeking a hedge against inflation.

Adding support to the rally, Exxon Mobil reported a major fire at its Los Angeles refinery that shut down a hydrotreating unit at the plant. ID:nN04294827

The problem at the refinery triggered concern over gasoline supplies heading into vacation season, after low domestic production prompted nationwide stockpiles of the key motor fuel to fall for the third week in a row.

/... http://africa.reuters.com/energyandoil/news/usnN04285660.html?rpc=401&

[Demeter]

4. Jobless claims highest since Sept. 2005 By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080403/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy;_ylt=Aq6GyhYNJFdK4Cg8N8EJ5m2s0NUE



The number of new people signing up for unemployment benefits last week shot up to the highest level in more than two years, fresh evidence of the damage to a national economy clobbered by housing, credit and financial crises. The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications filed for unemployment insurance jumped by a seasonally adjusted 38,000 to 407,000 for the week ending March 29. The increase left claims at their highest point since Sept. 17, 2005, following the blows of the devastating Gulf Coast hurricanes.

"This report supports the view that the jobs market is deteriorating toward recessionary conditions," said T.J. Marta, a fixed-income strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

The latest snapshot of labor activity was worse than economists had anticipated. They had predicted claims would be much lower, around 365,000.

In other economic news, the Institute for Supply Management said the nation's service sector — including retailers, hotels, insurance companies and other firms — contracted in March but not as much as the month before. The institute's index registered 49.6 last month, compared to 49.3 in February. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, while a reading above 50 indicates growth.

On Wall Street, investors took the latest batch of economic news in stride. The Dow Jones industrials gained 20.20 points to close at 12,626.03.

A government analyst said some of the big increase in jobless claims may have been related to an early Easter holiday this year, where claims that weren't filed or processed during the holiday week were pushed forward into the following week. Still, looking at the longer-term trend there was little doubt of the pickup in unemployment filings. A year ago, new claims stood at 319,000. Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits rose by a sharp 97,000 to 2.94 million for the week ending March 22, the most recent period for which that information is available. That was the highest since July 17, 2004.Employers cuts jobs in January and February, and economists are predicting more losses when the government releases the March employment report on Friday. The nation's unemployment rate, now at 4.8 percent, is expected to rise to 5 percent in March. The jobless rate could climb to 5.5 percent or higher by the end of this year, according to some analysts' projections.

[Demeter]

7. FEATURE-Hungry crowds spell trouble for world leaders / Reuters By Tansa Musa

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L23502580.htm


YAOUNDE, April 1 (Reuters) - "Is it not said 'A hungry man is an angry man'?" commented Simon Nkwenti, head of a teachers' union in Cameroon, after riots that killed dozens of people in the central African country. It is a proverb world leaders might do well to bear in mind as their impoverished populations struggle with food costs driven ever higher by record oil prices, weather and speculators trading in local market places and on global futures exchanges. Anger over high food and fuel costs has spawned a rash of violent unrest across the globe in the past six months.

From the deserts of Mauritania to steamy Mozambique on Africa's Indian Ocean coast, people have taken to the streets. There have been "tortilla riots" in Mexico, villagers have clashed with police in eastern India and hundreds of Muslims have marched for lower food prices in Indonesia.

Governments have introduced price controls and export caps or cut custom duties to appease the people who vote for them, but on streets across Africa, those voters want them to do more. Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable: most people survive on less than $2 a day in countries prone to droughts and floods where agricultural processes are still often rudimentary. For African households, even a small rise in the price of food can be devastating when meals are a family's main expense...



MARKET FORCES

The U.N. World Food Programme (WFP) says staple food prices in some parts of Africa have risen by 40 percent or more in six months. And this on a continent where malnutrition rates in some areas regularly top emergency levels even in an average year...The rising food prices have affected both Africa's small middle-class, like consumers in resource-rich South Africa, and poorer people like Sanou, the trader in Ouagadougou. While famines like those witnessed in the 1980s are less common now thanks to aid and development programmes, there is the risk of a return to chronic inflation which could threaten the relative economic stability achieved by many African states.

GLOBAL ISSUES

There are several reasons for the spiralling cost of living. Record oil prices driven by strong demand and insecurity in major production areas have pushed up fuel pump costs, making anything that has to be transported to market more expensive. Rising consumption of livestock fodder and other foods by fast-expanding China and India, and the use of land and crops for biofuels have boosted demand. Erratic weather, perhaps due to climate change, has trimmed harvests in some growing regions.
Meanwhile, investment funds and other speculators have bet on prices to continue up in a self-fulfilling cycle.

Across the world, governments are facing the consequences...

[Ghost Dog]

17. Wheat Disease Alert --->

Please read DU Breaking News: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3254763

[Demeter]

26. How Convenient

No, I'm not paranoid....shellshocked, maybe, but not paranoid.

[Ghost Dog]

34. Give it a k&r for visibility, then please?

You don't have to be paranoid to see that, if such plagues are to be controlled, the PODD people (who may well be either indifferent or actively in favor of seeing billions die) would have it done only by patented technology controlled by favored corporations.

To repeat the bottom line, at present, in the referenced thread:

In short, with severely low grain stocks worldwide, expanding acreage set aside to grow grains for burning as fuel not food, spread of a deadly wheat fungus is a scenario pre-programmed for catastrophe. Given the fact that the scale of the growing US biofuel industry is well known, some suggest that the Washington Administration has other priorities than abating world hunger. It is certainly clear that we face a crisis of serious proportions even absent a new deadly wheat fungus threat.

[UpInArms]

24. Corn hits $6 a bushel on tight supplies

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/corn_at6

NEW YORK - Corn prices jumped to a record $6 a bushel Thursday, driven up by an expected supply shortfall that will only add to Americans' growing grocery bill and further squeeze struggling ethanol producers.

Corn prices have shot up nearly 30 percent this year amid dwindling stockpiles and surging demand for the grain used to feed livestock and make alternative fuels including ethanol. Prices are poised to go even higher after the U.S. government this week predicted that American farmers — the world's biggest corn producers — will plant sharply less of the crop in 2008 compared to last year.

"It's a demand-driven market and we may not be planting enough acres to supply demand, so that adds to the bullishness of corn," said Elaine Kub, a grains analyst with DTN in Omaha, Neb.

Corn for the most actively traded May contract rose 4.25 cents to settle at $6 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after earlier rising to $6.025 a bushel — a new all-time high.

<snip>

While corn growers are reaping record profits, U.S. consumers can expect even higher grocery bills — especially for meat and pork — as livestock producers are forced to pass on higher animal feed costs and thin their herd size.

<snip>

In addition, corn and corn syrup are used in an array of products, meaning the price of everything from candy to soft drinks will eventually go up, analysts say. It's the latest dose of bad news for U.S. consumers, who are already struggling with higher food costs from record increases in the price of wheat, soybeans and other agriculture products.

...more...

[Demeter]

8. Luxury property: Why the rich are looking to Latin America

Wars, coups and high inflation - can South America be worth the risk?

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/property/overseas/article3675422.ece

Wealthy investors seeking safer havens for their capital in these troubled times may not have considered Latin America - until now. With a history of hyper-inflation, coups, dictatorships, corruption, drug gangs and social inequality, it has not been the most obvious place in which to buy property. But the region's growing economies - plus recent political stability - mean that cash-rich investors are snapping up homes there, from holiday villas on Brazil's beaches to high-rise flats in Mexico City and Panama.

Latin America is high on glamour but low on prices - the perfect mix for investors. For £27,000 you can buy a stylish flat near the beach in Brazil or an apartment in central Buenos Aires. Yet property booms are not guaranteed to make you money. Fast building and quick sales can often lead to bad-quality construction and a glut of empty property. Charles Peerless, director at Winkworth International Development, says: “Foreigners could be offered developments that haven't sold locally because they are not so great.” So where do you go, and what do you buy? Here we show you how to make the most of the best, and avoid the worst, of homes for sale in Latin America:

BRAZIL

Property prices have been rising fast in the biggest country in Latin America, thanks to a burgeoning middle class, preparations for the 2014 football World Cup and a growing number of foreign investors. Most of the new resorts are in the northeast, which has the best year-round weather and some of the most beautiful beaches. The stretch of coast between Salvador and Fortaleza was fairly undeveloped until European developers, mainly from Spain and Scandinavia, started building about five years ago. Now the British are moving in.

Prices in some of the best new developments have risen by 25 per cent in the past 12 months, says Savills International. But a repeat performance is unlikely. Harry Lewis, a director of Savills, says: “We expect to see a surge in sales this year. But though top-end developments might see prices rise by between 15 and 25 per cent, growth of between 8 per cent and 20 per cent is more realistic. Investors who buy in bulk might see better returns than individual buyers; for most there is not much to be gained from a short-term flip.”

The most popular hotspot is Natal, the state capital of Rio Grande do Norte, on the eastern tip of South America. The property boom will be given a boost with the expansion of Natal airport, to be completed in a couple of years.

There are dozens of properties for sale in the area's resorts. For £45,700 you can buy a one-bedroom apartment in Grand Natal Golf, a large resort with five golf courses, a heliport, tennis courts and spa (www.brazilianventure.co.uk ). This resort is 20 minutes' drive from the airport, but prices drop the farther you go.

A one-bedroom apartment in Porto dos Corais, 45 minutes' drive away, costs just £27,000 (contact TMPA on 01732 451144).

MEXICO

Americans have been investing in property here for years, but as the US economy cools,

developers all over Central America are trying to appeal to Europeans. While villas on the coast or golf resorts have always been popular with US buyers looking for a holiday let or somewhere to retire, investors now are heading to Mexico City in search of capital gains.

Charles Peerless says: “There is a shortage of good-quality rental property in Mexico City, although the market is quite mature and as close to what you would get in London in South America.” Rental yields are about 8 per cent. Assuming the US does not go into deep recession, Peerless predicts that prices will rise by 8 to 10 per cent in the city. Note, however, that capital gains tax is 26 per cent. Winkworth is selling one-bed flats in Reforma 90, a 38-floor tower in the city's business district, with prices from £96,210 to £338,029 (Winkworth: 020-7691 4269).

PANAMA

The country is experiencing a construction boom. The expansion of the canal, a free-trade agreement with the US in 2006, and the rise of a service-based economy that provides administration back-up to US companies have unleashed a building frenzy in Panama City. There are more than 35 towers going up, including the Trump Ocean Club, which has a sail-like shape reminiscent of the Burj al-Arab in Dubai. With another 300 towers in the planning process, it is estimated that there will be 40,000 flats on the market in 2010.

Who will buy them? Panama is still a country in transition. The shiny new towers are at odds with the poverty around them and the whiff of sewage from the canal on a bad day. The rental market is nowhere near as sophisticated as Mexico City or Brazil. US investors who might have bought have disappeared, and developers are targeting Europeans. For those ready to gamble that Panama will continue to flourish as Latin America's call-centre capital, property is cheap and the tax regime favourable, to companies as well as individuals. The Col�n free-trade zone is home to 2,000 firms that employ expatriates from all over South America. A three-bed apartment in a 27-floor tower starts at £53,510 (Avila Taylor Global Estates 0161-238 4984).

ARGENTINA

The peso's devaluation in 2002 ignited a property boom. Investors have been snapping up developments in Buenos Aires (which is currently under blockade by farmers) and ski chalets and country retreats in Patagonia. Property prices in Buenos Aires have risen by 10 to 20 per cent over the past couple of years, Savills says. With the dollar weak and the peso at six to the pound, sums could work in the British buyer's favour. From £27,500, you can buy a one-bed flat off-plan in the Alto Grande del Arte development, in central Buenos Aires (Move With Us, 0870 4204131). A four-bed ski chalet near San Carlos de Bariloche costs £69,780, and 2,000sqm (21,500sqft) plots in the nearby Arelauquen Golf and Country Club go for £69,000 (argentinahomes.com ).

VENEZUELA

A wild card. Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's socialist president, seems determined to tighten his hold on the country. He may have failed to win last year's referendum, which would have effectively given him lifelong keys to the presidency and control of the central bank, but the oil is still in his hands. Property buyers here must proceed with caution.

[Demeter]

9. Want a sure bet? Bet on deleveraging..the only place where deflation and inflation make common cause

DailyReckoning.com

It is a “leveraged planet,” says the New York Times . It explains that an ounce of leverage in Manhattan is likely to turn into a pound of credit in Dubai...which could quite possibly fall as a ton of debt on someone’s head in Norway. Norwegian fishermen were surprised when they discovered that they were taking losses from US subprime mortgage debt. So were German dentists.

But that’s just the way globalization works. We have nothing against it, but neither would we mind if there were less of it. Which raises the big question: is the leveraged planet becoming even more leveraged...or less so?

Ah, dear reader...this is where inflation and deflation make common cause. They both de-leverage the world...reducing the value of debt – either by defaults or by lowering the real value of the debt itself. That is the real story in the financial markets...and in the housing market: leverage is being marked down. A residential mortgage worth $200,000 two years ago may be worth only $150,000 now, for example. Bear Stearns – worth billions a few months ago – is now worth peanuts.

Inflation takes leverage down too. All those U.S. dollars held abroad (and at home, for that matter)...all those dollar-denominated Treasury bonds...all those dollar denominated I.O.Us – they all lose value as inflation increases.

Just take those 2 trillion odd dollars outside America. Every one of them is a claim against U.S. assets – land, houses, tractors, food, stocks, buildings, you name it. And as inflation takes prices upwards, each of those dollars falls to the ground...it will buy less of what the United States has to offer.

We have been talking about the battle raging between inflation and deflation. But this is one way to win, no matter which side comes out ahead. Want a sure bet? Bet on deleveraging. How do you do that? There are many ways. Sell the industry that provides leverage, for example – the financial sector. Sell Wall Street on rallies, in other words.

Yesterday was a good day to sell. After having gone up more in a single day than the entire value of the Dow in ’29, it was time to take profits. And that’s what investors did. The Dow sold off a little.

Gold, meanwhile, gave investors a buying opportunity. At $887, we’re not saying that that is the best price this correction will offer...but it wasn’t bad. And many buyers decided to take advantage of it. Gold rose back to $900 .

[Demeter]

10. Now let’s look at the U.S. economy itself. Ah...so many foreclosures...so little time.

DailyReckoning.com

Food up 9%. Houses down 11%. What’s an upside-down homeowner to do but walk away? According to yesterday’s USA Today , so many are walking away in Denver that it is producing an ‘Exodus’ of Biblical proportions. Some neighbors have one out of 8 houses in foreclosure. Citywide, the total last year was one out of 32.

Where do these people go? They rent, naturally. Rental vacancy rates have fallen from 10% two years ago to 5% today

Meanwhile, from Manhattan come two bits of conflicting news: apartment sales are down to an 18-year low...but prices are at an all-time high. Buyers are holding back, in other words...but sellers hold out too – for more money.

Across the nation, repossession filings are up 93% from last year. And as we saw yesterday, food stamps are up big time. But there really aren’t any “stamps” any more. Now, the food comes via plastic, a type of credit card that can be used – theoretically – only for buying food. In practice, nice shopkeepers in bad neighborhoods take the card and give back cash at steep discount. Say a $10 charge for 7 bucks worth of cash to buy life’s real necessities – liquor, cigarettes and gas.

It’s all going according to plan, as we see it. The empire is rolling over. Now, in its advanced, decadent phase, the imperial government must provide bread – in the form of plastic food stamps...and circuses – in the form of national party conventions, elections and foreign wars. The combination settles the public...and distracts them. They become docile, subservient, willing to stand in line to protect themselves from make-believe threats ...and ready to put up with any nonsense, no matter how grotesque, absurd or faithless.

In the latest financial news comes word of new proposals to “regulate” Wall Street...and new initiatives to “save” homeowners. The free market is out. ‘Public responsibility’ is in.

Treasury Secretary Paulson:

“I think you will continue to see flexibility as we learn and go forward,'' changing his tune from last month when he said proposals to use government funds were a “non- starter.”

Why are they a starter now? People come to believe what they must believe when they must believe it, is our observation. Both private citizens and the government too have taken on obligations that they can’t possibly fulfill. Since it cannot be paid, the debt must be made to disappear. The world – or at least most of the Anglo-Saxon part of it, must be de-leveraged. So, people must believe in a fantasy about how the government will “bail out” the homeowners...and how the Fed will “rescue” Wall Street...
Among all the great debtors in the U.S.A., circa 2008, only one has the power to pay its debts – no matter how large they are. Only one has printing presses that turn out pieces of paper with pictures of dead presidents on them. And only one can trade bad debt for political favor. That one is, of course, the U.S. federal government...lender of first, last, and holiday resort.

Already, the Fed has taken onto its balance sheet some $30 billion in smelly collateral from Bear Stearns...and billions more from other financial institutions. That is just the beginning. Somehow, the whole shebang of mistakes, misjudgments, greed-stoked miscalculations will end on the shoulders of the U.S. Treasury...on the backs of U.S. citizens...and dollar holders all over the world.

[Demeter]

11. Good Morning All! Have a Good Weekend!

This is all I could scrape up today (so far, anyway). Have at it!

This has been a learning experience, thank you for the opportunity.

Ozy might want to check that I didn't screw up the countdowns in the top of the post....

[InsultComicDog]

13. Good morning

....stretch....yawn...

[JNelson6563]

15. Many thanks Demeter!

I will try to stop in and post an update or two during market action. I love that, no matter what, the Marketeers keep the SWT going. :toast:

Julie

[DemReadingDU]

16. Thank you, appreciate the SMW threads

It's great you could help Ozy!

[AnneD]

25. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurker. The SWT is more addictive that the morning joe. Thanks Demeter for helping while Ozy is having some much deserved R&R. :applause: That is one thing I truly like about the SWT. Folks with a head for business while still retaining their heart. Folks that realize the bottom line should include more than just the 'bottom line'.

And the funny thing is-we have been ahead of all the experts on most of the major issues. I know we called the 'jobless' recovery out for what it was and we said we were heading into a recession early enough for most of us to protect our assets as best we could. We've alerted the group when there was a snake on WS and that worked to help us make better choices too.

I remember going through the RE Bust in Houston during the 80's. What I wouldn't have given for information that I have gotten here-and I wish I had been here for the Dot Com decline. I did much better during the Dot Com because I knew better-I just got singed a bit but I think even that would have been less painful with SWT. We are each others eyes and ears and I thank all that make this the spot it is.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[TalkingDog]

27. Thank you! You get a SMW gold star.

Your efforts have been Much Appreciated!

[UpInArms]

31. thanks for the great openings and threads this week, Demeter!

:yourock:

I would have been way too stressed out - one of the main computers crashed at work and it's been overwhelming -

am so very glad you took it on

:hug:

[Ghost Dog]

37. Yup. Good work, thanks

:thumbsup:

It's nice to get background as well as the latest "news".

I'd to also recommend scrolling down at this place for (usually) good info & analysis: http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/money_matters/

+, if you like firefox, do check out some of the popular addons: https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/

[Demeter]

57. Thanks! Firefox Is Working Really Well For Me!

I can't uninstall Internet explorer, but I'm not crashing all the time, either. I like the restore feature for when I do crash, it gets me back to where I was!

[Hugin]

48. Thanks Demeter!

Wonderful job.

[Warpy]

63. I'm just glad you stepped up to the plate. Best toon, ever!

[donkeyotay]

68. Thanks for keeping the SMW, Demeter. nt

[Karenina]

84. Thank you very much, Demeter!

Have a wonderful weekend!

[DemReadingDU]

12. Columbus trial - Judge refuses to free defendants

4/3/08 Says he can't ignore allegation they planned to flee

National Century executives arrested yesterday on allegations they were conspiring to flee to Aruba tried unsuccessfully to regain their freedom at a court hearing this morning.

Brought to the U.S. District Court in Columbus in jail garb and shackles, James E. Dierker Jr. and Roger S. Faulkenberry had a courtroom full of friends, family and co-workers who were supporting their release.

Defense attorneys for both argued the fleeing allegations are false and were made by a source prosecutors have not named.

Judge Algenon L. Marbley said the fleeing conspiracy was not up for debate. The issue of whether the executives could be free again pending sentencing would be handled at a bond-revocation hearing, he said.

The hearing was set for April 16 at 9 a.m.

The executives who were convicted of fraud in National Century Financial Enterprises’ collapse were allowed to remain free because their attorneys had shown they were not a flight risk or danger to the community, the judge said.

Marbley said he didn’t think the executives were a danger to the community, but he couldn’t ignore allegations of a conspiracy to flee, especially since one defendant has already disappeared.

Rebecca Parrett was allowed to return to Carefree, Ariz., where she would remain on house arrest pending her sentencing, but she did not show for a court hearing. A warrant for her arrest was issued last week.

Faulkenberry’s wife, Jackie, said the conspiracy to flee was bogus. The first time her husband heard any mention of Aruba was after she heard about it on news reports on the Internet, she said.

At the time, Faulkenberry was already in jail, she said.

Other executives convicted March 13 were Donald H. Ayers and Randolph Speer, who were arrested yesterday at their respective homes in Florida and Georgia. They are expected to be brought back to Columbus in the next 10 days, Marbley said.

National Century was a business that provided funding to health-care providers. When the Dublin-based company went bankrupt in 2002, more than 275 health-care providers filed for bankruptcy in its wake. Investors also lost more than more than $1.9 billion.

http://dispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/04/03/National_Century.html


link to previous articles...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3253766&mesg_id=3253816

[UpInArms]

18. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 72.050 Change -0.096 (-0.13%)

Dollar Drops Ahead of NFP as Traders Fear The Worst

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Dollar_Drops_Ahead_of_NFP_1207299372823.html

In contrast to most pre-NFP nights when price usually remains subdued, the dollar saw some strong volatility at the start of the European session losing ground against both the euro and the pound as traders became increasingly concerned with the deteriorating US labor conditions. The EURUSD cleared the 1.5700 level while pound traded above the psychologically important 2.0000 figure for the first time this week.

Up until yesterday morning the dollar looked to be on the way to staging a strong counter trend rally, with most market players beginning to focus on the softening economic situation across the pond where data this week indicated that both EZ and UK are beginning to feel the impact of global slowdown in growth. However, yesterday’s horrid US weekly jobless claims which printed above the key 400K level for the first time since hurricane Katrina completely changed the sentiment of the market.

Since the release of the jobless claims report at 12:30 GMT yesterday both euro and the pound have risen nearly 200 points on fears that US labor situation is deteriorating rapidly. With consumer debt at record highs, traders fear that a massive loss of jobs and income could send US reeling into a severe recession as consumers become unable to service their obligations and demand for goods and services contracts significantly.

Thursday’s jobless number which is not included in this months NFP release, may explain the surprising action of the night, with some market players already discounting today’s report as they anticipate much worse numbers in the future. As our colleague Kathy Lien wrote yesterday in, Non-Farm Payrolls: Dollar Outlook Hinges Upon the Degree of Job Losses “Over the past 3 decades, the US economy has gone through 3 recessions. In each of those 3 recessions, there was a string of job losses that lasted for a minimum of 10 months. Many people argue that the current downturn in growth could be more severe than the recession in the early 2000s due to the triple blow of a housing crisis, credit crunch and skyrocketing commodity prices. If this is true, we will see far more than 3 consecutive months of job losses. Also expect the level of job losses to climb because in each of the past 3recessions, the largest single month job loss was more than 300k! In this context, a 100k drop over the next few months is not only realistic but practically guaranteed.”

Despite the dour mood, a better than expected number should provide the greenback with at least a temporary boost as both sentiment and positioning has become considerably lopsided towards the euro. If however the number prints at –100k or worse, al hope for a dollar rally will evaporate and the pair may try to make a run for the new highs once again.

...more...

Non-Farm Payrolls: Dollar Outlook Hinges Upon the Degree of Job Losses

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Non_Farm_Payrolls__Dollar_Outlook_Hinges_1207242757904.html

Now more than ever, the change in non-farm payrolls for the month of March will determine the outlook for the US dollar and US monetary policy. All but one of our leading indicators for non-farm payrolls point to another month of job losses, which means that a negative print alone will not be enough to drive the US dollar lower. The dollar has been rebounding in the days leading up to the non-farm payrolls report and interest rate expectations for the FOMC meeting at the end of this month are strongly skewed in favor of a 25bp versus 50bp cut. We have seen these expectations change on a dime in reaction to incoming economic data and given the fact that the non-farm payrolls report is the most market moving indicator for the US dollar, there is no question that a weak release could alter market expectations significantly.

Could Non-Farm Payrolls Drop by 100k?

In the month of February, the US economy lost 63k jobs, which marked the second consecutive month of negative job growth. This is certainly bad for the US economy, but not as bad as it has been in past recessions. Although Bernanke stopped short of saying that the US economy is already in a recession, the fact that he indicated the possibility of a recession this year is monumental because yesterday was the first time in this business cycle that he had acknowledged what the market has known for some time.

Over the past 3 decades, the US economy has gone through 3 recessions. In each of those 3 recessions, there was a string of job losses that lasted for a minimum of 10 months. Many people argue that the current downturn in growth could be more severe than the recession in the early 2000s due to the triple blow of a housing crisis, credit crunch and skyrocketing commodity prices. If this is true, we will see far more than 3 consecutive months of job losses. Also expect the level of job losses to climb because in each of the past 3recessions, the largest single month job loss was more than 300k! In this context, a 100k drop over the next few months is not only realistic but practically guaranteed.





...more...

[Demeter]

28. Those 2001-2003 Job Losses Never Stopped in Michigan

We're in the seventh year of the Rust Belt Depression. I don't know how far it extends but Ohio is definitely also suffering.

[Ghost Dog]

39. Dollar Falls Versus Euro as U.S. Loses Jobs for Third Month

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro after a government report showed the economy lost jobs for a third straight month in March, increasing concern that the U.S. is falling into a recession.

The currency weakened as futures traders raised bets the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs by a half-percentage point at its meeting this month. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke acknowledged this week that the economy may contract in the first half of this year, halting a 1.8 percent rally in the dollar from its record low of $1.5903 per euro touched March 17.

``The Fed has more easing to do,'' said Adam Boyton, senior foreign-exchange strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank AG, the world's largest currency trader. ``The dollar is going to remain under pressure.''

The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.5723 per euro at 9:20 a.m. in New York, from $1.5684 yesterday. It dropped 0.3 percent to 101.99 yen, from 102.25. The euro traded at 160.46 yen, compared with 160.37 yesterday.

U.S. payrolls dropped by 80,000 in March after a revised decline of 76,000 in the previous month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 50,000 fewer jobs. The jobless rate increased to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent.

The last time the world's largest economy lost jobs for at least three consecutive months coincided with the start of the Iraq War in 2003.

`Awful Report'

``This is a truly awful report,'' said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon in New York, the world's largest custodial bank, with more than $20 trillion in assets under administration. ``This is a catalyst for the euro-dollar to retest $1.60.''

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=atvKAtnuumUY&refer=currency

[Ghost Dog]

40. Chertkow, Once a Dollar Bull, Sees Long-Term Decline

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar will fall in coming years as the U.S. seeks a weak currency to boost exports and cut its trade and current-account deficits, said Paul Chertkow, the former head of currency strategy at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

The U.S. currency will drop to between 80 and 85 yen this quarter, the lowest level since 1995, Chertkow, who retired this week after a 27-year career in global foreign exchange, said in an interview. It will also fall to $1.65 against the euro and may trade as low as $1.70, he said.

``The dollar will go weaker over time,'' said Chertkow, 60, who correctly predicted the U.S. currency's appreciation in the 1980s, a forecast he said earned him a reputation as a dollar bull. ``The Americans like the weakness of the dollar because it improves the competitive position of the U.S., which is one of the few things going for the U.S. economy. The Americans also have to recognize there has to be weakness in domestic demand.''

...

Chertkow is more pessimistic on the dollar than many of his peers. The median forecast of 41 strategists and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is for the U.S. currency to hold at 102 yen and to rally to $1.51 per euro by the end of June.

Yen `Opportunistic'

Investors should favor Asian currencies, Chertkow said, because the euro has already almost doubled in value against the dollar since trading at a record low 82.30 U.S. cents on Oct. 26, 2000. Currencies such as the yen and Chinese yuan will be the biggest beneficiaries as nations in the region reduce their trade surpluses and the U.S. shrinks its deficits.

``The risk-reward is to look for currency pairs that haven't moved nearly as much as the euro against the dollar,'' he said. ``That's why I think dollar-yen is so opportunistic. The dollar will weaken further, mostly against Asian currencies.''

The yen will also gain as the Japanese become more risk averse and reduce investment in higher-yielding assets overseas.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aFt5bbbtmXQM&refer=currency

[Warpy]

64. Chertkow come lately!

The buck will continue to bleed as long as the GOP is in power and Milton Friedman is the patron saint of the US economy.

Monetarism/laissez faire economics/mercantilism or whatever new lipstick the GOP puts on the pig will continue to have its inevitable outcome: wealth will concentrate at a far slower rate and dollars will depreciate as no new wealth is generated at the bottom. People are tapped out and spending all their discretionary income on servicing their debt. There is no way they can manage to take on new debt to buy toys made in China. They've reached their limit.

With no new wealth being generated and the country drowning in debt, there is no place for the buck to go but down.

It's nice these smart people have finally noticed at least part of it.

[Ghost Dog]

20. The East, no the West, is (in the) red

MARKET RAP By R M Cutler

MONTREAL - Two weeks ago, three different patterns could be detected among the principal equity indexes on the main Asian stock market exchanges, but the week now ending has been one with one major pattern with a few nonconformists.

The pattern, if last Friday's trading is included, is characterized by a weak upward trend of between zero and 2% through Tuesday's close, followed by a strong spike upwards at the Wednesday open and even-tempered movement further upwards throughout the day, with a continuing mild but constant uptrend on Thursday but concluding with an almost total lack of movement this Friday - at least so far.

...

What was the reason for the spike at the Wednesday open? As one might suspect, New York is the origin. Market sentiment interpreted the Swiss bank UBS's writedown of US$19 billion, connected with the unfolding subprime debacle, as a sign of the beginning of the end rather than as a glimpse of the iceberg beyond the tip.

Despite the fact that the bank announced it would countervail its first-quarter net loss of over $12 billion by seeking $15 billion in new capital, likely requiring a new share issue and thus in fact the dilution of the value of existing shares, UBS shares rose 12% that day in Zurich. Let the reader judge whether this is a marker of self-delusive irrationality.

Asian financials, which earlier this year had led the New York markets down when they cracked under the combined fear of subprime exposure and the prospect of a US recession, thereupon nevertheless led their own markets higher and those markets responded. Yet it is noteworthy that the early-Wednesday upward spike accounted for well over half the week's gains in Singapore, Japan and Australia, and nearly two-thirds in South Korea.

...

If the collective wisdom in New York had one good explanation for the irrational behavior at the Wednesday open, it had two irrational explanations for the good behavior that followed. One was credulous acceptance of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's defense, before a Congressional committee, of the decision to help JP Morgan Chase buy Bear Stearns, as "not a bailout" (which is strictly true but really beside the point).

The other was the manic phase of a manic-depressive week awaiting the release, on Friday morning New York time an hour before markets open, of the nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate figures for March. Less significant but related statistics from different sources released during the week were subjected to intensive interpretation, but the best that could be said of them was that they could not in the end be taken as portents of things to come on Friday morning and (inconsistently with the foregoing, of course) at least did not validate the worst fears.

The important new figures, which will be published roughly six hours after the present column is published and may well be available as you read these words, have the potential to incite a new daylong mini-panic but, as unfavorable as they may be, they are unlikely to provide an argument that will close discussion on the question of a US recession.

Perhaps it would be a step forward if they were bad enough to force debate into the open, over whether the US recession will be long and deep or short and shallow. That would allow the ventilation of studies of industrial demand suggesting that the recent run-up in commodity prices, for puncturing which Bernanke was briefly hailed before they largely recovered relatively quickly (the precious metals being a temporary exception for technical reasons), was not due mainly to speculation.

The price increases recently forced on China by its raw and semifinished materials suppliers could then be introduced to complete the circle integrating into the debate Asian extractive industry, and also consumer and capital goods production. That way, we would all get a better idea of where Asian equity markets stand in the mix, not to mention prospects for inflation in countries importing those goods. The telling sign, as always, will come when such issues reach the popular press.

/... http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/JD05Dj03.html

[Demeter]

29. When The Experts Say "It Won't Be a Depression" Without Backup

then you know it's time to head for the storm cellar. A few leading indicators or facts would make their protestations so much more believable....

[Tansy_Gold]

38. Do you think there are skewed stats that essentially back them up?

What I mean by that is -- When 1% of the population controls something like 70% of the wealth, doesn't that skew the stats? It's like putting Bill Gates in with ten other people from the bottom 99% and saying "These eleven ordinary folks have an average net worth of $1.8 billion!"

So when the benefits of increased productivity are REAL but they all flow to the top 1%, that doesn't change the productivity rate or the creation/accumulation of "wealth." In fact, the numbers alone -- or the carefully selected numbers -- may NOT indicate a recession/depression/total catastrophic collapse. And if we factor in the $516tr of derivatives as "created wealth," that skews things even more. Reality, of course, indicates otherwise.


Tansy Gold, dealing with reality and wondering who is the sucker who is going to ultimately buy those $516tr in derivatives. (Oh, wait, it's us, isn't it??? :grr:)

[specimenfred1984]

41. Speaking of faked stats

http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

142,000 jobs were simply invented by BLS last month. The unemployment "report" today is actually much worse.

[Warpy]

66. These have been imaginary jobs "created" by actuarial tables

since Stupid's smart boys took over the government. They calculate the number of jobs created by looking at the number of people entering the workforce and the number of us that were scheduled to kick the bucket. The jobs data have never had any basis in the world of facts. The government hasn't counted real jobs in at least seven years and possibly longer.

It seems everybody but Wall Street has learned not to listen to them.

[AnneD]

70. Five percent...

is the new 16%. Funny how you adapt to the lower numbers.We are reading between the lines as well as they use to do with Pravda:evilgrin:

[Ghost Dog]

74. Speaking of which, the new (rather tabloid, in English) Pravda published this the other day:

By Babu G. Ranganathan

Many in society have been taught to believe that the public has no right to tell corporations what to do with their money any more than a a private citizen has the right to tell his neighbor what to do with the money he earns from his business or store. This is not a fair analogy.

True enough that a private citizen doesn't have the right to tell his neighbor what to do with his money but the public does have the right to tell corporations what to do with their money. Why? Because corporations couldn't exist without government and, in the case of democracies at least, the authority of our government comes from the people, the majority.

Therefore, the public has a right to demand something from corporations in exchange for giving corporations the right to exist. Would I not have the right, even as a private citizen, to demand something from a business built on my property? The same logic applies to the relationship between the public (society) and corporations. Corporations cannot hide behind the specious argument of rugged individualism!

Many in our society have been brainwashed to believe that an absolutely free market place with no government controls or regulations would automatically fix our nation's problems. Have we forgotten already that the Great Depression of the early 1930's was the direct result of a free market economy with no government control or regulation?

In rugged individualism, the individual has the right to benefit from social and economic interactions with society, but society has no right to demand any benefit from the individual.

However, if it is true that a person has a moral right to be a rugged individualist, looking out only for himself, then it also follows that individuals (plural), by mutual agreement, have a moral right to look out for themselves. Such a moral right of individuals (plural) is the basis for majority rule and unions in our society.

Certainly, if an individual is benefiting from commerce with the many individuals of society, then the many individuals of society have a right, by mutual agreement among themselves, to demand certain benefits from the individual, benefits such as decent wages, clean air, clean water, safe working conditions, safe products, etc.

If capitalism and social consciousness cannot coexist, as so many of my fellow Republicans claim, then one wonders how modern industrialized nations such as Sweden, Norway, and Denmark can have a high degree of social consciousness and still be competitively advanced economically and technologically with the United States.

/... http://english.pravda.ru/business/companies/02-04-2008/104757-corporations%20-0

[AnneD]

77. Good Article GhostDog...

ITA-does this make me a Communist or Russian? Inquiring minds and all.

[Demeter]

86. I Know There Aren't. They Aren't Even Trying To Fake It

and that is either advanced cynicism, or total disrespect, or lack of imagination.

Or pure ignorance--probably the best bet. That's what George does best!

[Doctor_J]

21. Toon of the year?

Toles hits another home run

[Ghost Dog]

22. UBS Breakup Demanded as Former President Arnold Attacks Bank After Losses

Former UBS AG President Luqman Arnold called for a breakup of the biggest Swiss bank after about $38 billion of writedowns on debt securities erased more than half its market value in the past year.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/regions/europe.html

[Roland99]

33. 9:54am - Unemployment rate up 5.1%. Stocks mixed.

Dow 12,575.30 -50.73
Nasdaq 2,364.24 +0.94
S&P 500 1,367.82 -1.49
10 YR 3.50% -0.10
Oil $105.50 $1.67
Gold $908.00 $-1.60

[Pale Blue Dot]

35. Employers cut 80,000 jobs in March, most in 5 years: Another cause for optimism? (X-posted from GD)

Take a look at this article from MSNBC. I think it sums up the thinking in the financial sector right now:

"Wall Street’s main stock indexes were lower Friday and Treasurys rallied following news that the economy gave up 80,000 jobs last month, the biggest loss in five years.

Although the job losses are a significant sign of economic weakness, some investors were reassured that the total was not 100,000 or more."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3683270 /

In other words, the news is horrible, but it's not quite as horrible as it could have been, so that's good news! To use a sports analogy, that's like throwing a party becuase your team only lost by 25 points when they were expected to lose by 30.

The most significant feature of these job loses is that there is currently no mechanism in our economy to bring those jobs back. The housing downturn and the upswing in food prices have left people without cash. They're spending less, so retailers and manufacturers are cutting jobs and/or sending them overseas. This, in turn, decreases furthur the amount of money people have to spend. It's a death spiral, and the financial sector and other economic optimists have yet to come to terms with it.

It doesn't matter right now whether the unemployment rate is bad, really bad, or really, really bad. The point is that unless we are willing to make some drastic changes, those jobs are gone forever. We've lost the game, America. It's time to deal realistically with that fact.

[Tansy_Gold]

50. Point spread

Now, I could be entirely wrong, but isn't "point spread" a valid subject for betting? And isn't it sort of roughly equivalent to some of the "derivative" bets/hedges that have infected the financial system? And aren't there indeed gamblers -- certainly not members of the losing team! -- who do celebrate a loss if it beats the point spread?

I know there are those who think I'm obsessing with this derivatives thing -- and I freely admit that I am. It just seems to me that it's one thing to invest in a company and expect a return on that investment, but an entirely different thing to bet with a third party on that company's chances for success or failure and then, when you lose the bet, ask a fourth party (meaning, us the taxpayers) who had nothing whatsoever to do with the bet to pay for your losses!

Again, if I have misunderstood any of this, please feel free to correct me. This is a learning process for


Tansy Gold

[lib2DaBone]

80. only 80,000? Say...That is good news

Just a small glitch on the tracks... we'll have it fixed in no time!

[Demeter]

87. Excellent Illustration of Our Current Economic Situation

Wonder where that happened. Any idea?

[antigop]

36. They're banking on getting away with it

A disturbing trend...retroactive immunity..for spying and now for patent infringement

http://www.star-telegram.com/245/story/552540.html

Property rights protect the little guy. It doesn't matter how wealthy or politically connected you are -- you have control and full legal standing with regard to your property. Because of your property rights, you can't be run over and abused.

The same is true of intellectual property rights. There is something heroic, even romantic, about the small inventor who comes up with a breakthrough idea. The patent is his property right; his protection. It means that big companies can't just steal his idea and kick him down the road. A just society is reinforced by property rights that protect the weak against the strong, and the small against the large.

At least, that's how it's supposed to work. But sometimes the powerful and politically connected see property rights as an annoyance. Unfortunately, that is happening on Capitol Hill, where a consortium of major banks that have repeatedly infringed a patent are asking Congress to give them immunity for their violations.

Worse, these banks also are asking Congress to make taxpayers pay the patent holder for their illegal actions. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the bailout would cost the federal government at least a billion dollars.

If granted, this would reward the banks for ignoring patent rights. It also would set a precedent by which wealthy, politically connected patent infringers could go to Congress and ask for similar immunities and taxpayer bailouts. Such a precedent would undermine the U.S. patent system and American innovation.

[antigop]

42. 5 things the rich are cutting back on

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0804/gallery.luxury_recession.fortune/index.html

hotels
steak
golf
yachts
Pilates

[Roland99]

43. They can just fall back on the Greenspan Substitution Factor...

tents
ground beef
putt putt
canoes
jumping jacks

[antigop]

45. Ha! Thanks for that. But I guess it's not really funny though, huh. n/t

[Hugin]

47. Meanwhile, the only-haves list...

cardboard boxes
soylent green
rat racing
inner tubes
watching old aerobics videos through the window down at the pawn shop


Edit to add: Nice one Roland99! :rofl:

[Hugin]

46. You can add...

'skiing' to that list.

[AnneD]

49. What they left out...

5 things the Middle class are cutting back on

eating out
eating meat, except special occasions
lessons for the kids
Star bucks
weekend drives

5 things the Poor are cutting back on

eating 3 meals a day-down to 2
AC or heat
driving-it's the bus if they have fare
rent-they live in their cars now
walking the streets-they've switched to pan handling

Edited to add-Prag,you crack me up...skiing. :rofl: I guess we will all add swimming to our list. Thank God the air is more or less still free.

[AnneD]

44. Get your wheelbarrows ready.......

New Zimbabwe $50 million bill buys 3 loaves of bread


HARARE, Zimbabwe — Bread shoppers in Zimbabwe have millions of reasons to rue cascading inflation.

With inflation raging at more than 100,000 percent, a loaf of bread costs 16 million Zimbabwe dollars.

Now, Zimbabweans can buy three loaves with only one bank note. Authorities today introduced a new $50 million bank note, state media reported.

The new note is worth US$1 in widely used black market trading.

It was the third time in three months that the African nation's central bank issued a higher denomination note in response to record inflation.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5674636.html

When we have to start printing million denominations-I recommend the faces on the bills be Greenscum, Bush, Cheney et al.

[formercia]

51. Coming to your neighborhood soon.....

Economic Bird Flu, transmitted from wallet to wallet.

[Demeter]

52. The Ethics of Harvard MBAs

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/04/ethics-of-harvard-mbas.html

Bloomberg had a odd article on the varying fortunes of Harvard MBAs (and some alumni of other Harvard graduate programs). It duly notes that they range from unquestioned successes like Lou Gerstner to more controversial figures, such as Jeff Skilling, Paul Bilzerian, Henry Paulson,, Stan O'Neal, and of course, George W. Bush

Generalizing about HBS graduates is tricky. It is the largest graduate school program in the world, turning out roughly 900 MBAs a year, which almost guarantees some heterogeneity in the population, Thus it might be more useful as an indicator of business behavior generally, in part because force of numbers gives Harvard MBAs some sway, in part because the program more so than others sets out to create CEOs, and finally because only a few MBA programs, such as Yale School of Management's, are highly distinctive (Yale has a strong emphasis on not-for-profit management.

After the accounting scandals of 2002, where Skilling and other Harvard MBAs played high-profile roles, the school studied what it could do to improve the conduct of its graduates. It concluded that students' ethical compasses were set before they got there, which one could view either as accurate or a way of punting. Thus, the school gave some motherhood statements about changing its admissions policies.

So what has happened? Consider this section of the Bloomberg article:

Harvard Business School's two-year program instills confidence ``to go out and aim high and to think you can work on the world's stage,'' said Scott Snook, an associate professor at the school. Yet, not all students mature psychologically while at Harvard, he said.

Snook studied 50 students from before they enrolled until they graduated in 2006. Using psychological tests and interviews, he found that one-third were still, in respects, stuck in adolescence, and had trouble empathizing.

Snook found another third inclined to define right or wrong in terms of what everybody else is doing. That might explain why even well-educated executives have fallen prey to the subprime- mortgage debacle, he said. Snook said the study will be published this year.

``They can't really step back and take a critical view,'' he said. ``They're totally defined by others and by the outcomes of what they're doing.''

The subprime-lending spree shows that Harvard and other elite schools fail to mold managers who look beyond self- interest, said Rakesh Khurana, an associate professor at Harvard Business School.

``Business schools as an institution have not effectively addressed this issue of creating a profession that has the capacity for self-regulation,'' said Khurana, author of ``From Higher Aims to Hired Hands'' (Princeton University Press, 2007).


Hhm. It looks that post 2002 study was wrong, or that Harvard did a lousy job of changing its admissions policies.

A final tidbit:

Bush, the first U.S. president with an MBA, has written that Harvard gave him ``the tools and the vocabulary'' of the business world. Now, in his final year in office, Bush faces a slumping economy and an unpopular war. His approval rating is 32 percent, according to USA Today/Gallup Poll research in March.

``Usually, if you've got a sitting president who graduated from your school, you'd talk about it all the time,'' Snook said. With Bush, he said, ``It's almost studiously ignored.'

[Demeter]

53. HRC's Odd Economics / Robert Reich

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/04/hrcs-odd-economics.html

Senator Hillary Clinton said today that her rival for the Democratic presidential nomination has been “timid and unenthusiastic” in his proposals for dealing with the current economic downturn. This is an odd charge, to say the least.

Her proposal is to have government purchase securities containing non-performing mortgage loans – securities whose worth is unknown because the bad loans were repackaged by mortgage lenders with good loans and then resold – and then restructure them (with lower interest rates at longer, fixed terms) so homeowners would have a better chance paying their mortgages.

Obama supports and co-sponsored (as did HRC) a proposal developed by Senator Christopher Dodd and Rep. Barney Frank which would leave the restructuring job to investors who – backed by enough of a government guarantee to make the task feasible – would buy the securities. Given that the Dodd proposal is on life support in the Senate right now, HRC’s more ambitious plan has no prayer of becoming law. But even if it did, it makes no sense. How could anyone be sure the government bought the securities at a price that reflected their true “worth” when there’s no market to determine their worth to begin with? The whole idea behind the Dodd-Frank proposal is to create such a market.

HRC’s other idea is to create a commission on foreclosures, headed by Alan Greenspan, Bob Rubin, and Paul Volcker. Yet Greenspan is more responsible for the housing mess than any other single person in Washington or on Wall Street. It was, after all, Greenspan whose Fed lowered short-term interest rates be lowered to 1 percent in 2003 – making money so cheap that every financial institution eagerly lent it to any halfway sentient human being. And it was Greenspan who argued that neither the Fed, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, nor any other pertinent oversight agency should bother to watch whether financial institutions were behaving themselves. Bob Rubin, for his part, joined Greenspan in successfully urging Congress in the late nineties to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act, the last remaining edifice separating commercial from investment banking – enabling Citigroup, which Rubin thereafter joined, to acquire Traveler’s Insurance. A commission headed by two of the people most responsible for deregulating Wall Street in recent years is unlikely to devise ways to prevent another Wall Street crisis. (Volcker, who headed the Federal Reserve before Greenspan, is an Obama supporter.)

Obama, by contrast, has called for legislation requiring that investment banks, hedge funds, and other non-bank financial institutions possess capital and liquidity proportional to the risks they’re taking on – something that neither Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson nor, for that matter, HRC, has advocated. Yet this is the only sensible way to avoid future messes like this, especially if the Fed is going to be the lender of last resort to these as yet unregulated Wall Street institutions.

Obama's response to the current crisis is exactly right. HRC's make no sense at all.

[Hugin]

59. My 0.02...

Both of these 'solutions' approach the problem from the supply-side and could be seen as a bailout.

Instead, as the 'toon above suggests... Why not take the solution directly to the consumer side? Using a similar
formula suggested by Tansy-Gold recently. Freeze the rates, offer terms to the home owners @ their current rate +1%
on one domicile (any more than what they live in... Tough cookies) Oh, yeah, and leave the Wall Streeters to deal with
all of the Feisty German Pension Funds... Irate Norwegian Stock Clubs... Rural High School Football Teams... Quilting
Clutches... etc. they fraudulently promised HUGH!!1!! RETURNS!!1!!! all by themselves. Un-regulated is UNREGULATED!
That knife cuts both ways, Gentlemen.

[formercia]

60. That will keep their lawyers busy too..

Just think of all the lawsuits coming down the pipeline..

[Hugin]

62. They could start up a whole cable network to cover it...

Reality Realty TeeVee 24/7.

:popcorn:

[formercia]

65. Peoples' Court for Bankers

up close and personal with no bullshit or legalese allowed.

[Hugin]

67. Think of the jobs it would create...

Of course, they'd have to know some math.

Anyway, it seems cheaper to go by this plan than to try to bail out the Bankers.

[formercia]

69. Ground ogliarch, on sale $.99 per Kilo.

Market forces, supply and demand.:evilgrin:

[Tansy_Gold]

81. Now, wait just a minute there, Prag

As a quilter, I demand that the Quilting Clutches be protected, bailed out if necessary. . . . . ;-)

No, seriously, I understand you're using the examples as the victims, not the perpetrators, and that the investment scammers should be left to deal with them, not that the taxpayers should bail them out. That's certainly my attitude, and I appreciate that you referenced my earlier suggestion. The other side of it, though, is that we need to do a better job of educating the potential managers of the Feisty German Pension Funds and the Quilting Clutches that IF IT SOUNDS TO GOOD TOO BE TRUE, IT'S PROBABLY A BIG FAT LIE.

My background is more in sociology than business or finance or economics, so it seems to me that we live in a culture that has a very deep foundation in two conflicting philosophies. The one is the so-called "Protestant work ethic" that rewards those who have earned their wealth, but is brought into play even more forcefully when it comes to denying any kind of hand-out to the needy. Welfare "reform" is part of this, but so is the attitude toward preserving what we've "earned" by way of reduction/elimination of income, property, and estate taxes. There's a sense that if one has earned something through one's own hard work, one has a right to keep it -- and "keeping" it includes handing it down to heirs who didn't lift a finger.

But the other attitude is a glorification of the windfall. We play lotteries because we really want that thoroughly UNEARNED $160,000,000 prize. Whether this is a vestige of the old calvinist "wealth as a sign of grace" belief, who knows? It's certainly not a conscious thing, but it does seem to permeate our culture. At the same time that we preach the work ethic, we actively protect the rights of heirs to come into fortunes they did not earn (Paris Hilton, anyone?) -- perhaps because we are envious and secretly hope one day to inherit the fortune of someone else who worked for it.

We attack Wal-Mart for depriving Debbie Shank of her well-deserved (and far, far, far too small to cover a lifetime of care) insurance settlement, yet I'm quite sure many of those who cursed the company still shopped there "because I'm not going to pay full price for toilet paper and these really cool sandals that I don't need and they probably won't last two weeks but they're only two and a half bucks and I couldn't pass 'em up!" We watch American Idol and Who Wants to Marry a Millionaire and Wheel of Fortune and we no longer bat an eyelash (pun intended) when a baseball player is offered a $50 million contract TO PLAY A GAME.

Is that how the managers of public employees' pension funds got suckered into investing in hedge funds and CDOs and SIVs and all those other "Hey, look at the nifty formula I worked out on the computer!" schemes that promised unbelievably (!) extravagant returns? Have we all watched the miraculous happen so often that we start to expect it or at least not consider it so miraculous after all?

I dunno. I really dunno. But I don't think it all just springs full grown from the mind of some recent MBA grad who likes to play with numbers. I think the market for this stuff has to be cultivated, and if we as a society weren't already primed (pun intended, of course) for the too-good-to-be-true, we wouldn't get suckered in.

Tansy Gold, who has probably been out in the sun too long

[Demeter]

83. You Have Sun, Tansy?

Send some out my way, please!

Never forget PT Barnum's attributed observation of the American people: There's a sucker born every minute!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There's_a_sucker_born_every_minute

"There's a sucker born every minute" is a phrase often credited to P.T. Barnum (1810 – 1891), an American showman. It is generally taken to mean that there are (and always will be) a lot of gullible people in the world.

However, when Barnum's biographer tried to track down when Barnum had uttered this phrase, all of Barnum's friends and acquaintances told him it was out of character. Barnum's credo was more along the lines of "there's a customer born every minute" — he wanted to find ways to draw new customers in all the time because competition was fierce and people bored easily.

While some sources claim the quote is most likely from famous con-man Joseph ("Paper Collar Joe") Bessimer,<1> it was actually uttered by David Hannum, spoken in reference to Barnum's part in the Cardiff Giant Hoax. Hannum, who was exhibiting the original giant and had sued Barnum unsuccessfully for exhibiting a copy and claiming it was the original, was referring to the crowds continuing to pay to see Barnum's exhibit even after both it and the original had been proven to be fakes.

In turn, it was erroneously attributed to Barnum's fellow circus owner and arch-rival Adam Forepaugh attributed the quote to Barnum in a newspaper interview in an attempt to discredit him. However, Barnum never denied making the quote. It is said that he thanked Forepaugh for the free publicity he had given him.

Yet another source credits late 1860s Chicago "bounty broker, saloon and gambling-house keeper, eminent politician, and dispenser of cheating privileges..." Michael Cassius McDonald as the originator of the aphorism. According to the book Gem of the Prairie: Chicago Underworld (1940) by Herbert Asbury, when McDonald was equipping his gambling house known as The Store (at Clark and Monroe Streets in Chicago) his partner Harry Lawrence expressed concern over the large number of roulette wheels and faro tables being installed and their ability to get enough players to play the games. McDonald then allegedly said, "Don't worry about that, there's a sucker born every minute."

The earliest known appearance of the phrase in print is in Opie Read's 1898 novel A Yankee from the West.<2>

In the John Dos Passos novel The 42nd Parallel, the quotation is attributed to Mark Twain.

[Tansy_Gold]

91. I have LOTS of sunshine!

Well, right at the moment (6:43 p.m. MST) the sunshine is fading into an absolutely stunning sunset, all gold and pink and deep lavender.

But yes, I had plenty of sunshine all day today. The high was about 82, with a slight breeze out of the south and just a few high, wispy clouds in an otherwise stunning blue sky above Superstition Mountain.

And even when it hits 118 this summer, I won't complain. I love Arizona.


Tansy Gold, Chicago native and Indiana transplant who does NOT love John McCain

[Demeter]

88. The Reason Why Everybody Flocked To the CDO's and Such

Greenspan destroyed the interest rates--nobody could get even a zero return when he dropped the Fed rates so low--inflation was eating up CD holders alive. So the choice was gamble in the crooked stock market--which is why so many lost everything in the dotcom, enron, etc frauds, or buy these high tech products, another form of fraud.

THERE WERE NO LEGITIMATE, HONEST INVESTMENTS OUT THERE!

The housing bubble distorted the real estate market. Student loans for kids who would have no chance at employment once they graduated, nothing worked anymore.

And nothing still works anymore. We have all these parasites, sucking Americans drive with their fees and penalties and outsourcing of real work.

Unless you grow a crop or sew a garment or build a machine or a house, or provide a useful service like health care or teaching, or fire protection, you don't PRODUCE anything. You are just a parasite.

And we have far too many of them, making far more money than can ever be justified, from the CEO on down.

[Demeter]

54. Senate Rejects Proposal to Allow Bankruptcy Judges to Alter Home Mortgages By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/04/business/04housing.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

WASHINGTON — The Senate on Thursday rejected a proposal to let bankruptcy judges modify mortgages on primary residences to help financially distressed homeowners, but lawmakers continued to work on a bipartisan bill that includes other foreclosure assistance as well as tax breaks intended to stabilize the housing market.

The proposal to let bankruptcy judges alter loan terms on primary homes, as they can already do on vacation homes and investment properties, was the most controversial in a series of amendments to the larger housing measure. It faced stiff opposition from many Republicans as well as the banking and mortgage loan industries.

Senator Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois, had championed the bankruptcy provision but asked that it be set aside when it threatened to stall the larger bill — a move that won him praise. Tabling the amendment effectively killed it.

After the Senate voted, 58 to 36, to table Mr. Durbin’s amendment, lawmakers resumed debate on other amendments with final passage of the bill expected next week.
....
A more aggressive legislative rescue effort for homeowners is expected to pick up steam next week in the House. Representative Barney Frank, Democrat of Massachusetts and chairman of the Financial Services Committee, will hold hearings on a plan to provide up to $300 billion in federally guaranteed loans to help refinance the mortgages of as many as 1.5 million homeowners at risk of default.

That proposal would require lenders and loan service companies to agree to cut the principal balances of troubled loans and take a loss, with the hope of avoiding further losses in a foreclosure. Senator Christopher J. Dodd had hoped to include a version of that proposal in the Senate package but said it was too complicated and would require separate legislation.

Instead, the more modest Senate bill includes a new standard property tax deduction of up to $1,000 for couples and $500 for individuals that will benefit 28.3 million tax filers who do not itemize their deductions.

The bill includes $10 billion in tax-exempt bonds for local housing agencies to refinance subprime loans and provide mortgages for first-time home buyers, $4 billion in grants for local governments to buy foreclosed properties and $100 million to expand counseling for homeowners at risk of defaulting on their loans.

It would also give a $7,000 tax credit to buyers of foreclosed homes and a tax break for home builders and other businesses, allowing them to claim current losses against taxes paid in previous years. Officials said the proposals would cost taxpayers $15 billion to $20 billion.

In the Senate, where a lawmaker’s bad mood can bring proceedings to a standstill, Mr. Durbin’s move to table his amendment drew high praise.

“That is unheard-of in the Senate,” the majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, declared. “He did that in an effort to move this along. He knew where the votes were, and I want the record to be read with the fact that this is a fine legislator, a good human being.”

[Nickster]

58. Lazear Pays Less Heed to Jobless Rate When It Rises

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a6.grSdmwb2k&refer=home

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush's chief economist pays less attention to the U.S. unemployment rate when it rises than he does when it falls.

``I don't focus too much on the monthly unemployment rate because it has been a bit volatile,'' Edward Lazear, chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisers, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today after the government reported an increase in the jobless rate in March.

That contrasts with Lazear's comments last month following a report that joblessness fell in February. Then, he said ``what we do tend to place more weight on is the unemployment rate because the unemployment rate is not volatile.''


Up is down, black is white!

[Demeter]

82. Maybe Lazear Needs Some Personal Experience With Unemployment

[MilesColtrane]

61. Just a note...

Thanks Demeter for taking the handoff from Ozy while he's away.

If there were no daily SMWT, I, and a whole lot of others, would be jonesing mightily.

[formercia]

71. "Don't Blame Me."

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/9994/Bear-CEO-Don't-Blame-Me?
Bear CEO: Don't Blame Me
Posted Apr 04, 2008 11:31am EDT by Aaron Task
Related: BSC, JPM, LEH, GS

Thursday's Senate hearing on the Bear Stearns bailout included a lot of obligatory testimony and political grandstanding, which was predictable. Missing from the dog and pony show, however: Any sense of accountability from Bear CEO Alan Schwartz.

--snip--

Meanwhile, NY Fed president Timothy Geithner did address one of the lingering mysteries of the Bear saga: Why didn't the Fed open up the discount window for Bear Stearns, which Schwartz said could have prevented Bears' demise?

"We only allow sound institutions to borrow against collateral," Geithner said. "I would have been very uncomfortable lending to Bear given what we knew at that time."

[Ghost Dog]

73. Chinese sovereign wealth fund operator acquires stake in Total

Sovereign wealth fund operator State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which manages most of China's foreign exchange reserves, has acquired a 1.6% stake in the French integrated energy major Total for $2.8 billion, according to the Financial Times.

The Financial Times reported that the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) has initiated the process of building a stake in Total several months earlier. Safe also operates China's central bank.

The acquisition of the stake by Safe has reportedly been carried out under the full purview of Total's management and Safe's representatives, according to the news source.

The Financial Times noted that, Safe conventionally invests its funds in treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. The weakening US dollar has reportedly made it imperative for Safe to diversify its portfolio.

/. http://www.datamonitor.com/industries/news/article/?pid=4CD24C59-779C-4A1D-865A-2BE3E74BB537&type=NewsWire

[slipslidingaway]

75. Stock Market Technical Analysis 4/3/08

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RducV5PiSVA

Posted the above link last night in yesterday's SMW thread, since then I went back and looked at few older videos to see what he was saying as the market was turning down. He appears he does a nightly update.

Here is one from November 2007 where he speaks of the longer term view, some good comments IMO and they can be used across different time frames.


S&P 500 Longer Term View
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBfpYqrrzgQ


A couple decent sites for free charts...

http://www.prophet.net/analyze/javacharts.jsp

OR

http://stockcharts.com/

[JNelson6563]

76. Checkin' in

Every time I've stopped by LBN the SWT is already near the top. Glad to see all the activity. So much news happening and it's all right here. You guys rock!

:toast: Julie

[UpInArms]

78. PIMCO'S Gross-Treasuries (Bonds) are most overvalued assets

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0442004820080404

NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. government bonds are the most overvalued assets in the world and it is tough to justify them as an investment given the level of inflation expectations, the manager of the world's biggest bond fund said on Friday.

Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Company, or PIMCO, said he was starting to take on a little more risk and had bought some bank and investment bank bonds.

Speaking in an interview on CNBC, he added that it was too early to consider high-yield bonds since recession tends to produce defaults. However, he said it was not time to consider Treasuries.

"I think Treasuries are the most overvalued asset in the world, bar none," Gross said.

Treasuries have rallied almost non-stop since the middle of last year, when it became clear that the troubles in the housing market were growing into serious problems for financial markets and the economy.

...more...

[fedsron2us]

85. Translation PIMCO have got a barn full of bank bonds that they are desperate to unload

so they need to talk down Treasuries.

[UpInArms]

79. Fed "most responsible" for market crisis (created the "bubbles"): banker

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSL0490984920080404?sp=true

CERNOBBIO, Italy (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve bears most responsibility for the current financial market turmoil as it let asset bubbles be created, the Asia chairman of U.S. bank Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Friday.

"In my opinion the Fed is the most responsible for this crisis we are in right now," Stephen Roach told reporters on the sidelines of a business conference.

"It had a policy to tolerate or condone asset bubbles and clean up the mess afterwards," he added.

Roach, a former chief economist at the bank, said he was worried by plans to strengthen the power of the U.S. central bank.

He said lawmakers should instead revise the Fed's mandate requiring it "to do a more effective job in focusing on financial markets' stability and its impact on the real economy."

"This is a huge flaw in the government's proposal as it has been presented on Monday," Roach said.

...more...

[Demeter]

89. I'm Sure There's More Than One Huge Flaw In Paulson's Proposal

after all, he's on the Bush team. They never do wrong by halves.

[UpInArms]

90. closing up the shop for the week

Dow 12,609.42 16.61 (0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,370.98 7.68 (0.32%)
S&P 500 1,370.40 1.09 (0.08%)
10-Yr Bond 3.481% 0.11

NYSE Volume 3,703,311,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,994,205,250

On Friday, the stock market closed out a strong week on a dull note, ending the day near the unchanged mark. However, the market showed some resilience by not posting a decline, considering employers cut jobs for the third straight month.

Nonfarm payrolls fell 80,000, which was worse than the 50,000 decline economists expected. This marks the largest decline since 2003. In addition, January’s reading was revised lower to -76,000 from -23,000, and February’s reading was revised lower to -76,000 from -63,000.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rebounded to 5.1% from 4.8%. Economists expected a rate of 5.0%.

These numbers are not good, however, the numbers do not necessarily fit the recession label. Unemployment and the decline in payrolls have yet to come close to the early 2000s recession level, which saw unemployment top 6.3% and payrolls fall as much as 325,000.

Seven of the ten sectors finished higher.

Agriculture-chemical company Mosaic (MOS 115.07, +10.55) soared 10.1% on Friday. The company posted the hefty gain after reporting third quarter earnings of $0.99 per share ex-items, which topped the expected earnings estimate of $0.95 per share. As a result, the materials sector (+1.4%) provided leadership and posted a strong 6.6% gain for the week.

The energy sector (+1.0%) also lent some support to the broader market. It rose in conjunction with the 2.3% advance in crude oil prices.

The financial sector (-1.4%) acted as limiting factor to the stock market, with another round of earnings estimate cuts. JPMorgan cut its earnings estimates at Citigroup (C 24.08, -0.28), Bank of America (BAC 39.41, -0.96) and Wachovia (WB 27.21, -1.16). Also weighing on financials was word that Deutsche Bank added JPMorgan Chase (JPM 45.57, -0.71), Citigroup , Sun Trust Banks (STI 56.49, -2.60) and PNC Financial (PNC 67.73, -0.77) to their portfolio as short-term sell ideas. Deutsche cited continued issues related to increasing credit losses, capital markets dislocations, and revenue growth at the banks.

For the week, the S&P gained 4.2%, the Dow advanced 3.2%, and the Nasdaq gained 4.2%.
DJ30 -16.61 NASDAQ +7.68 NQ100 +0.6% R2K +0.3% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +1.09 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1392/1465/1.95 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1386/1712/1.24 bln

3:30 pm : The major indices slip, with the Dow falling back to the unchanged mark. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are posting slight gains. The pullback has been broad-based.

The Nasdaq Composite is up 4.7% this week, which means it is set for its best weekly gain in 2.5 years.DJ30 -15.39 NASDAQ +3.91 SP500 +1.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1438/1411/1.60 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1418/1658/949 mln

3:00 pm : The major indices regain some ground. The Nasdaq is outperforming as large-cap tech names continue to show strength.

MBIA (MBI 13.72, -0.57) had its insurer financial strength rating cut to AA from AAA by Fitch Ratings. MBIA's long-term rating was cut to A from AA. MBIA responded by stating it "respectfully disagrees with Fitch's conclusions," citing it has $17 billion in claims-paying resources.DJ30 +31.18 NASDAQ +18.37 SP500 +7.17 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1204/1620/1.44 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1163/1913/852 mln

2:30 pm : The major indices are drifting lower. The Dow is trading slightly above the unchanged mark, while the S&P 500 is posting a modest gain. Financials (-1.0%) are to blame for the recent slip.

Pimco's Bill Gross said on CNBC that Treasuries are the most overvalued assets in the world. This has not hindered action today, as the 10-year note rallies 29 ticks.DJ30 +4.31 NASDAQ +13.31 SP500 +4.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1264/1535/1.32 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1273/1788/783 mln