Traders Bet Obama Will Win Democratic Nomination

[Hissyspit]

Source: Reuters

Traders bet Obama will win Democratic nomination
By David Alexander
Tue Apr 8, 3:27 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential contender Hillary Clinton will win several state nominating contests in the coming months but has little chance of becoming the party's candidate for the November 2008 election, traders were betting on Tuesday.

Traders in the Dublin-based Intrade prediction market gave Democratic front-runner Barack Obama an 86 percent chance of being the Democratic presidential nominee, versus a 12.8 percent for Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady. Results were similar on the Iowa Electronic Markets at the University of Iowa, with traders giving Obama an 82.9 percent chance of winning, versus a 12.8 percent chance for Clinton.

Intrade traders were betting the Democratic nominee would ultimately become president. They gave the Democrat a 59.1 percent chance of winning, versus a 48.8 percent chance for the Republican. Iowa traders gave the Democrat a 57.1 percent chance of winning, versus 46.3 percent for the Republican.

Prediction exchanges let traders buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are structured so the prices can be read as a percent likelihood of an event occurring. Studies of prediction markets have shown they have an accuracy comparable to that of public opinion polls. Expectations that Illinois Sen. Obama would be the Democratic presidential nominee have strengthened from 75 percent a month ago.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080408/pl_nm/usa_politics_predictions_dc

[loveangelc]

1. lol, no duh.

[GoesTo11]

2. The odds have narrowed a lot since the campaign went negative after Wisconsin

Can't figure out how to embed this graph, but look at the trend starting 2/23.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA_jpg.cfm

[Alii]

3. Does this help?

[Politicalboi]

4. I think it's

A sure bet. Just like this could be

http://www.jabberwonk.com/flinker.cfm?cliid=3ii0i

[rayofreason]

5. easy bet n/t.

[babylonsister]

6. If I were a betting woman, I'd bet, too! nt

[jlacivita]

7. Even if Clinton wins 55% / 45% in all remaining contests

including remaining super delegates, obama still gets more than 2024. (according to CNNs interactive calculator)

just put all the sliders at 55% for clinton and obama wins with 2030 delegates to clinton's 1987:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html

I won't go far as to say she _should_ drop out, but I do think she should be writing her concession speech