Clinton's Lead Cut to 3 Points in current poll, new virtual tie..

Stuart G

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Mon Apr-14-08 06:39 PM
Original message

Clinton's Lead Cut to 3 Points in current poll, new virtual tie..

Edited on Mon Apr-14-08 06:55 PM by Stuart G

Source: Raw Story, Real Clear Politics.com

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/ToplinePollMemoPAPrimary-4-14-2008.htm
tm

CLINTON’S LEAD CUT TO 3 POINTS IN CURRENT POLL,
NOW IN A VIRTUAL DEAD HEAT WITH OBAMA

Harrisburg, PA (Monday, April 14) - A new statewide poll conducted by Harrisburg-based Susquehanna Polling and Research, Inc., in the upcoming PA Democratic Presidential Primary Election shows Hillary Clinton with a slight 40/37 lead over Barack Obama with just one week remaining before the April 22nd Primary Election. Eighteen (18) percent remain undecided, while 4% said they would vote for neither candidate; 1% refused to answer. This represents a significant drop from her 14-point lead in our last poll conducted March 5-10, where Clinton led by a 45/31 margin. The current poll was conducted April 6-10 with 500 likely Democratic voters and has a margin of error of 4.3% at the 95% confidence level; the calls were made from our telephone call center in downtown Harrisburg using live survey interviewers.

“Clinton’s 3-point lead is within the poll’s 4% margin of error, so this race is now a virtual toss-up,” said Jim Lee, the firm’s president, who conducted the poll for public dissemination. “Obama has a strong 62/19 favorable to unfavorable ratio in name ID (better than 3:1), and has succeeded in building up his positive image in the state, something he said all along he was capable of doing if voters had more time to get to know him. At the same time, Clinton’s name ID shows a higher negative than Obama, with 25% having an unfavorable opinion of her compared to 61% who view Clinton as favorable,” Lee added.

Clinton still leads in the culturally conservative Southwest (57/17), the Northeast (44/26) and Central “T”/Johnstown-Altoona media market (40/32), but her leads in these areas has narrowed in comparison to March when she was winning with bigger margins. Perhaps most surprising is Clinton’s shrinking margin in the Northeast, her natural strength given her family ties to the area, where her 38-point, 56/18 margin over Obama in March has now shrunk to 18 points (a swing of 20). Meanwhile, Obama has strengthened his lead in the Harrisburg/South Central region (now 39/29), and surpassed Clinton in the 4 suburban counties surrounding Philadelphia (now 45/40), whereas Clinton led in March by a 42/35 margin; Obama’s 50/30 lead in Philadelphia is unchanged from our earlier poll. “Obama’s media efforts are clearly paying off, he’s holding his base in the socially liberal areas of the state, and at the same time, has chipped away at her lead in areas where he knows he can’t win, but can at least have a respectable showing, namely in Central and Western PA, where Reagan Democrats are still key to a Clinton victory,” Lee said.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/ToplinePollMemoPAPrimary-4-14-2008.htm

Read more: www.rawstory.com

Decide for yourself which poll is closer to correct.

The link to raw story will work if the others do not, It is on the front page of Raw STory.