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the leftist tide that has swept the continent (Paraguay is surrounded by countries with leftist governments--Bolivia, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil), on the one hand, and the Bush Junta/global corporate predators, on the other, a Lugo win will be a huge setback for the Bushites, for many reasons.
For one thing, they hate social justice--and Lugo has social justice as his top priority (lifelong advocate of the poor). For another, he truly does have far more kinship with the Bolivarian Revolution--and with leaders like Chavez, Morales in Bolivia and Correa in Ecuador (he is friends with Correa)--than he does with Bushites, corporate predator CEOs or the rich landowning elite of Paraguay. He just doesn't think like they do. His experience is as a pastor of the poorest province in Paraguay. He lives with the poor. And he is a leftist political organizer (i.e., organizer of the people)--who has done the impossible, pulled Paraguay's fractious leftist parties and social movements together. He has said, "Paraguay is neither right nor left--Paraguay ispoor!"--but his goals are leftist by definition. He wants to change Paraguay's huge rich/poor discrepancy.
A win by Lugo will be seen as one of the last seals upon an amazing, historic transformation of South America--toward peace, social justice and regional cooperation, after decades and centuries as a U.S./corporate looting ground with U.S.-installed dictators and rule by fascist elites. The latter have been so irresponsible, so selfish and greedy, and so unpatriotic, they have have looted, neglected and destroyed their own countries (as
our rich class, corporate predators and political establishment have been doing to us, lately). They have sold away their countries' resources, sovereignty and dignity--and have created vast populations of poor people, with no provision for their education, livelihoods, food security, medical care, local development or anything else. Lugo discusses these themes--Paraguay's sovereignty and dignity--which are also on the lips of many of the region's leftist politicians.
Example: Ecuador's new president, Rafael Correa, has pledged not to renew the lease for the U.S. airbase in Ecuador, when it comes up for renewal next year. And what he said about it (to reporters in Miami) is this: He would agree to a U.S. military base in Ecuador "when the U.S. permits Ecuador to put an Ecuadoran military base in Miami!" I've just learned from Judi Lynn (who found it in an article by John Nichols in CounterPunch) that Fernando Lugo has said something similar about the U.S. military base in Paraguay. It is an affront to their sovereignty.
A Lugo victory will be bad news for Bushites--and for "war on drugs" war profiteers" and for "neo-liberals" and big corporate exploiters like Monsanto. (Pesticide use is a big issue in Paraguay.)
Secondly, although Paraguay does not have oil, it is of great strategic importance to the Bushites. They've developed the U.S. air base (near the rumored 100,000 acre Bush Cartel land purchase in Paraguay), from which I believe they intend to launch support for the white separatists in Bolivia, when those big landowners try to split off the gas/oil-rich eastern provinces of Bolivia (bordering Paraguay), from the central government of Evo Morales, which could happen next month. I think the Bushites have an oil war plan for South America--which involves stirring up a civil war in Bolivia and destabilizing the region. Their main targets are Venezuela and Ecuador (lots of oil, both members of OPEC, both with leftist governments that are insisting on sovereignty over their oil, and are using oil profits to bootstrap the poor). But those countries are not easy to destabilize, so the Bushites want to work the southern end of the Bolivarian Revolution (Bolivia, Argentina), and try to draw Venezuela and Ecuador into hostilities (in support of their ally Evo Morales). Corrupt rightwing control of Paraguay is a key component of their plan. Obviously, Lugo would oppose any such U.S. trouble-making among his neighbors and allies.
Thirdly, with Lugo as president, Paraguay will be better situated for economic integration with the leftist governments of the region. And that is something that the Bush-U.S. and its corporate pals very much oppose. The last thing in the world they want is to see is a successful South American Common Market--that is, a powerhouse rival to the U.S. The Bolivarians--through new institutions like the Bank of the South--are prepared to help Paraguay. In fact, the current rightwing government could see the advantages of membership in the Bank of the South, and joined it. But with a social justice president, there will be more help, more cooperation, more aid of every kind. The Bushites have been so bad. They've poured $5.5 BILLION of our tax dollars into fascist Colombia in military aid. It is a war profiteer boondoggle. And funds such as USAID-NED are not used to bolster democracy but to destroy it. They have nothing to offer--except to fascist elites. Their idea is to rule and exploit by force. A Lugo win will be one more of many blows to dreadful Bushite Latin American policy.
Fourth, I think the Bushites are involved in major drug and weapons trafficking in South America, and the tricorner area of Paraguay, eastern Bolivia and Brazil is of great interest to them because of this. It is one of the main routes for drugs/weapons traffic. They probably want to destroy rival drug lords and take it over (or protect what they're already doing). (That's what the Bushite "war on drugs" is all about, in my opinion.) Lugo will run a clean government, and implement a sane, social justice policy with regard to dangerous drugs (like cocaine). That is bad news for Bushite and other major criminals.
One distinction Lugo has made between himself and Chavez is that Chavez is more a believer in using the power of the state for social/economic reform, which requires a strong leader, whereas Lugo believes more in persuasion, in working out compromises between competing interests (a more pastoral view). I tend to think this approach is naive--whether in Lugo, or in Barack Obama--because, when you are dealing with entities like Monsanto and Exxon Mobile, or Bush criminals, you MUST be strong, you MUST be wily, you MUST outwit them, and you often CAN'T talk to them--they are bad dudes. They have no interest in compromise. They want ALL the profits and ALL the power. Lugo has also said that Evo Morales' more confrontational leadership is not his way, and is not what's needed in Paraguay. And this, too, seems somewhat unfocused and unrealistic. Does he think the big landowners in Paraguay are going to voluntarily give pieces of their land away to poor peasants? Does he think he can appeal to their Christian consciences and persuade them to do what is right? Does he think that Bushites, or Democratic "neo-liberals," care about unjust "free trade," and can be talked into real labor protections? The whole point of "free trade" is to brutally exploit poor workers, force wages down at home and abroad, ravage the environment, and destroy the sovereignty of all peoples--ourselves included--for maximum profit!
Lugo may be cagey in saying these things, but if he really believes them, I think he's going to have a rude awakening, and will soon see the value of the Chavez, Morales and other leadership models--more in the FDR mold. ("Organized money hates me--and I welcome their hatred!" --FDR.) Toughness is needed, to overcome and de-fang these greedbags who are out to destroy democracy, not to mention the planet, and who think nothing of slaughtering 1.2 million people to get their oil.
Lugo's approach--whatever it turns out to be--will be cushioned and helped by the very existence of the Bolivarian Revolution and its strong leaders and millions of activist supporters. If he were starting the revolution, he would get nowhere. The bad guys would just off him, and that would be that. But he will be buoyed by undertaking reform on a continent that is already overwhelmingly headed in that direction. And perhaps his more compromising approach will work in that context, and will be useful as well in helping to prevent civil war in Bolivia. The white separatists over there need a good talking to about their Christian consciences.
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