Both Obama and Clinton camps claim lead in popular votes

[underpants]

Source: AP

By NEDRA PICKLER – 15 minutes ago

The day after her big win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Rodham Clinton said Wednesday that she now has more votes than anybody who has ever run for president in a Democratic primary.

Not so fast, Barack Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, told reporters in a conference call. Obama has a comfortable lead in the popular vote and doesn't expect to lose it by the time voting ends June 3, Plouffe said.

So who is right?

It depends on how the votes are counted. And even using Clinton's method, she may not stay ahead for long.

Clinton is including Michigan and Florida, primaries she won after all the candidates agreed to boycott the states for holding votes too early for party rules. Obama had his named pulled off the ballot in Michigan, so he doesn't get a single vote from that state.








Read more: http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gddKleD2qYirWThIy2QEDnn5Z1TAD907PTK80

[underpants]

1. +

Including Michigan and Florida, Clinton has 15.1 million to Obama's 15 million — a lead of about one-half of a percentage point for Clinton. Without Michigan and Florida, Obama has 14.4 million to Clinton's 13.9 million — a lead of about 1.7 percent for Obama. Neither total includes the primary vote total from Washington state, since it doesn't count toward the nomination and the party awards delegates based on its caucus.



There are a couple other problems for Clinton in claiming the lead in the popular vote. Even using her criteria of counting Michigan and Florida, her lead may not last more than two weeks. That's because Obama is heavily favored to win the largest state left to vote, North Carolina, on May 6.

Obama also is likely to win South Dakota and Oregon. Even if Clinton won all the other contests left — Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Montana, Puerto Rico and Guam — they are smaller contests that will make it difficult for her to catch back up.

The other problem with counting the popular vote is that four states that held caucuses aren't included at all — Iowa, Nevada, Washington and Maine. Those four states don't have a popular vote total to include — instead they count the number of delegates elected for each candidate to determine who wins. And although those states are relatively small, Obama won every one except Nevada.

[AZ Criminal JD]

5. Puerto Rico is not small

It is bigger than most states that have had primaries. Between 1 million and 2 million people will vote in the Democratic primary so if someone does well there it will give them a big margin.

[NJmaverick]

2. I can't believe the media would allow camp Clinton to spread lies like that

Even if they let fellow Republican, Bush, do the same thing.

[Bill Thompson]

3. Who Lies

To know who is telling the truth you only have to look at who lies almost constantly.

[dlfuller]

4. Yet another lie from Clinton

Hillary now has more hate than anyone who has ever run for president in a Democratic primary

[Zhade]

6. clinton lies again? Shocker! Hey, idiot - FL and MI don't count.

Especially not the MI one-candidate bullshit election!

Oh, and it wasn't a "big win", either. Fucking liars.

[Thepricebreaker]

9. Reality + Clinton = Syntax Error

[Zhade]

10. LOL! Well, you know, GIGO.

NT!

[Beowulf]

7. two words

Nedra Pickler

[MaineDem]

8. In any case, popular vote is irrelevant in our nomination process

Regardless of who's counting.

[Scooter24]

11. The popular vote is the single most influental variable

in getting Super Delegates to vote for you.

Like it has been pointed out before- SD's by tradition vote for the candidate with the most votes.

[Zhade]

12. Completely inaccurate. The nomination is decided by the most delegates.

Those are the rules.

[Scooter24]

13. I never implied that

However, the statement "the popular vote is irrelevant" only applies in cases where a nominee runs away with the delegates needed from the states before the convention.

Our party's situation now is that the deciding convention votes are not going to be cast by delegates from the states, but from those Super Delegates who are aligned with a candidate. The party has long endorsed the tradition that the candidate with the most popular votes from the primaries should generally get the Super Delegate vote.

Make no mistake, Clinton isn't interested in Florida's or Michigan's delegates at this point, the chances of them being counted are very slim. What she really wants, and it's obvious, is to use her popular votes in those states to influence the Super Delegates to vote in her favor.

Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan, yet Clinton is claiming victory in that state and using the numbers in her favor. But, it appears that even with HC's performance last night in Penn., Super Delegates are still coming into Obama's court.

[MaineDem]

14. It MAY be a variable

The reasoning a superdelegate uses to decide how to vote is known only to that delegate. They are expected to use their best judgment.

But my point was that the Democratic Party doesn't use popular vote in deciding our nominee. It's irrelevant, for one example, because it can't count the vote in caucus states. Neither campaign should be using it as a benchmark.

[Moderator]

15. kick

[MannyGoldstein]

16. Using New Math, Clinton Contends She’s Ahead

Source: The NY Times

Seizing on her Pennsylvania primary victory, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her surrogates are renewing their efforts to have the disputed Michigan and Florida convention delegates seated and pushing the argument that she now leads in the total number of votes cast when the tallies in those two states are included.

The Democratic Party leadership does not recognize the results of those contests because the states broke party rules by holding early primaries. But on Thursday, a Michigan superdelegate supporting Mrs. Clinton filed a complaint with the national Democratic Party demanding that at least half the state’s delegates be seated at the convention.

...

Asked by a reporter this week about the new math from the Clinton camp, Mr. Obama smiled.

“I guess there have been a number of different formulations that the Clinton campaign has been trying to arrive at to suggest that somehow they’re not behind,” he said on Wednesday in Indiana. “I’ll leave that up to you guys; if you want to count them for some abstract measure, you’re free to do so. But, you know, the way that the popular vote is translated is into delegates. That’s how these primaries and these caucuses work.”

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/25/us/politics/25campaign.html

---

Once again, The Clintons are setting a fine example for our children. I hope that they're very, very proud.

[tabasco]

17. Hillary's obviously suffering from PTSD from her combat experience.

We've had a lying, scheming creep in the White House for over seven years.

NOT THIS TIME!

Did Hillary learn fuzzy math from their newest best buddies, the Bushs.

[liberaldem4ever]

19. It amazes me that people have forgotten that Clinton

voted for invading a sovereign nation in a preemptive and unnecessary war and she has never apologized or admitted it was wrong. It's curious how the media has completely forgotten the war and who voted for starting it. I'll bet the troops never forget. I damn sure won't.

[islandmkl]

18. i need her people to get with my bankers and teach them this 'math'...

maybe there is money in my account that hasn't been deposited yet, or some of my dollars were worth more than face value, or all the checks i deposited were worth more than they were made out for...

or better yet...there should be money in there for work i have not done

[Windy]

20. She is a disgrace and an embarrassment to the party. nt

[mbperrin]

21. So we really are going to throw MI and FL under the bus.

The architects of this Big Tent policy should be very, very proud.

I'm sure they can also make the airlines run on time.

[Dr.Phool]

24. We don't have to.

Their state legislatures and state party big shots did it for us.

[MannyGoldstein]

27. A. Their State Committees Violated The Rules

B. If they were to be counted fairly, those primaries would have to be run again so that all Democrats would have reason to vote - not just the ones who are unable to grasp the their primary had already been nullified by the actions of their state committee.

[mbperrin]

28. So collective punishment for all voters is appropriate for the actions of their

leaders?

Gee, how Geneva Conventionish. If this were an occupied country, collective punishment would be illegal.

And I really do belong to the party of inclusion. Instead of trying to figure out ways to count out millions of party members, I'd rather find ways of including them in.

But what the hell do I know? Obviously, we could just anoint the winner of the first caucus or primary and be done with the frivolous idea of voting at all. It is just a big messy process after all, and things must be tidy.

Right?

So MI and FL are still under the bus and lots of people are happy about that.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

30. Yeah, it's ok here under the bus

There's no good way to split the delegates without some kind of re-do. No split is acceptable to both candidates.

There's no way the candidates will agree on the format of a re-do. So any re-do scheme will end up in the courts, maybe to the Supreme Court. Do we want the format of a re-do dictated by Bush's Supreme Court?

So just go with the original plan. Leave the MI delegates out of the voting.

Pull me out from under the bus in November. I'll vote for whichever Dem the rest of you all picked.

:hi:

[mbperrin]

29. So let's run them again.

What's the problem? And please don't say money or time. There's months to go and more money has already been spent on this campaign than any other.

[MannyGoldstein]

31. Fine.

We tried, but their states didn't want to.

[defendandprotect]

22. Maybe she can get Scalia to intervene for her . . . !! --- ??? - !!!

[earthside]

23. Clintonite or Democrat?

It is one or the other apparently.

[grytpype]

25. :eyes:

:eyes:

[bowens43]

26. She's completely off the deep end

she has lost what little of her mind that she had left. A hillary presidency would be disaster.