Oil prices, gasoline costs to double: CIBC report

[robertpaulsen]

Source: Globe and Mail

OTTAWA — Crude oil prices will soar to more than $200 (U.S.) per barrel over the next five years – driving Canadian pump prices to $2.25 a litre and forcing a fundamental transformation in the North American economy, says Jeff Rubin, chief economist with CIBC World Markets Inc.

In a new report, Mr. Rubin forecast a continued run-up in crude prices, despite a slowing world economy and slumping petroleum demand in United States, the world's leading oil consumer.

He said he expects crude prices – now trading at above $116 (U.S.) a barrel - to average $150 by 2010, and more than $200 by 2012. That would translate into pump prices of $7 (U.S.) per gallon in the United States, and $2.25 per litre in Canada, double the current levels.

“Whether we are already at the peak of world oil production remains to be seen, but it increasingly clear that the outlook for oil supply signals a period of unprecedented scarcity,” the economist said.



Read more: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080424.woilRubin0424/BNStory/energy/home

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I think once the price of gas exceeds the minimum wage, it's no longer a recession, it's a depression. Get ready.

[Deja Q]

1. With an infrastructure drooling to be converted to light rail, biking, et cetera,

there might be new jobs to get this green push going.

It's not gloom nor doom yet!

[robertpaulsen]

4. Doom no, gloom yes.

I don't doubt the conversion you speak of will be initiated under a Democratic administration. But even then, it won't happen overnight and it won't be economically painless.

If we don't get that Democratic administration come November, I call it doom!

[Pavulon]

2. mmm, I hope they bump up a bit more..

for a month or so, we are talking a 30 - 50 a month maybe more for a heavy user. For that all the plug in and hydrogen options will have fertile ground to take hold for long term adoption. We will begin destroying 50 - 75% of our corn for e85 and bio diesel will be competitive.

I prefer the carbon neutral options out there. Plus all that cash we pay to assholes gets to stay here. Maybe to domestic assholes but beats saudis and a che wannabe. The backlash for those guys will be crushing.

[notadmblnd]

3. not ten minutes ago I read an article that said the Oil bubble was about to burst.

At the story was posted here too. I just wish someone would make up their minds.

[Stuart G]

5. No way of knowing...because it is not complete supply vs demand

The price goes way beyond that. Oil is traded in dollars. The value of the U.S.Dollar has something to do with price, as does politics.
Predicting oil price is..not smart..say stupid..It could be double in 3 months, or down to $2.50 by election time (my guess is even less by election time, starting with a huge drop in late summer...coinciding with the Republican surge to keep the Presidency.) then after election, huge increase to new records..

Here is another thread about this report..well. I use the s word...stupid.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3203097

[NickB79]

6. It's only a bubble if you believe there is plenty of easily accessible oil left

But that doesn't seem to be the case any longer. Even the "huge" Brazilian oil field discovery last week has already been downgraded from 33 billion barrels to only 600 million.

On top of that, Russian oil production fell 1% last year despite high oil prices, and Russia is almost as big as Saudi Arabia for oil exporting.

Unless massive reserves are found soon, it looks like the party's over.

[thecrow]

7. It's the falling dollar...

Say our currency lost 50% of its value..
That would quickly turn a $60 dolar per barrel into $120 a barrel....

What we desperately need to do is get the dollar's value to go up.

I don't know how, though. * broke our economy, military and has trashed
our reputation around the world. It will take more than an election
to get this straightened out, and many more poor people are going to die.