both the referendum on the new constitution, which has been hammered out in public assemblies all over Bolivia, over the last year, and this illegal LOCAL referendum on secession, which was concocted by the white separatists to sabotage the constitutional process. The Court no doubt suspended both votes to prevent a civil war, and to give time to mediators (the OAS, the Catholic bishops and others) to try to get the matter resolved without bloodshed.
So, the white separatists--if they proceed with the vote--are doing so with no legal authority, and in defiance of a ruling by the highest election authority in the country. They are acting as a law unto themselves. The election will have no monitors. The rich, armed, white separatists will be free to bully and intimidate voters, and rig the vote. What they are doing violates everything the OAS has been trying to achieve, as to honest elections and democratic institutions. It is in direct defiance of the rule of law.
What if Arnold Schwarzenegger called for a vote on California's secession from the union, and then proceeded to use the machinery of government to hold that vote? Hard to know what would happen in BushWorld, but in the normal world, all hell would break loose. The president would nationalize the state's National Guard and would put US military bases in California on high alert. Federal revenue would be stopped (what Morales just did). Air travel and all cross border travel would likely be suspended. Federal courts and federal agencies in California would be locked up. Most business would come to halt. Oil imports would be stopped--and all tanker deliveries. And likely the Supreme Court would be involved, and simply say, "No, you can't do that." The state's constitution pledges loyalty to the federal government. You
can't secede. And if Californians were to proceed with the vote, and vote themselves out of the union, they would need to be prepared to fight the U.S. military.
The entities that would stop this secession would first of all be the Bolivian military, and if there is continued fighting, the OAS, first by denying the separatists status in the community of Latin American countries, and then possibly by an OAS or UN peacekeeping force. The U.S. would try to block it, but the Latin American countries are pretty united on issues like this. None of them wants the U.S. meddling in their affairs, and starting civil wars. Brazil will have a big say. I'm sure that leftist Lula da Silva doesn't want a fascist mini-state on his border. Argentina will also have a say (borders Bolivia); also, Paraguay (borders Bolivia), and Uruguay (near to it)--all three now with leftist governments. And, finally, of course, Venezuela and Ecuador, major allies of Evo Morales. (There have been tensions between Chile and Bolivia, due to a war over a hundred years ago, in which Bolivia was denied access to the sea. But the two leftist governments have recently been working that out, and Chile--although more influenced by the U.S. than the others--would likely oppose the split-up of Bolivia.)
The Bushites are no doubt arming, funding and organizing the white separatists, who have been forming militias for some time (they use them to intimidate, beat up and kill uppity indigenous). They may be counting on "swift action" by the U.S. in support of "friends and allies" in South America, as Donald Rumsfeld urged in an op-ed in the Washington Post five months ago.* I've figured for some time that this is what he meant--civil war in Bolivia, with the white separatists declaring their "independence." He is out to cause major "divide and conquer" trouble in South America--to create chaos, mayhem, destabilization and war--in order to regain global corporate predator control of the oil and other resources. It's his "retirement" project, and if he can't get the U.S. military involved this year, or if the mediators succeed in heading off the crisis, he will go to Plan B, a long term war of attrition against the leftist democracies that now control the resources he and his pals lust after.
I don't think he will succeed. The Bushites just "lost" Paraguay, for godssakes! Paraguay! The last fascist outpost except for Colombia. (New leftist president elected there last Sunday, overturning 60 years of rightwing rule and dictatorship.) They're going to lose their military base in Paraguay, and in Ecuador. The leftist tide has become a tidal wave and it's going to sink the fascists and their Bushite/corporate daddies, even if they do manage to create a little fascist enclave and launching pad in eastern Bolivia. They will be the pariahs of the continent, like Colombia has become.
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*
"The Smart Way to Beat Tyrants Like Chvez," by Donald Rumsfeld, 12/1/07http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/30/AR2007113001800.html