STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 26 January (#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday January 26, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 364
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY ?
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 45 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 97 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 309
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 793
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 23, 2004

Dow... 10,568.29 -54.89 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq... 2,123.87 +4.86 (+0.23%)
S&P 500... 1,141.55 -2.39 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.07% +0.10 (+2.44%)
Gold future... 408.00 -2.10 (-0.51%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[JNelson6563]

1. Good morning Ozy and all!

Great 'toon! haha

So on CNBC they're telling me how strong the dollar is against the Euro. What a hoot.

Looks like futures are getting worse in spite of happy talk. I think everyone is wise to Greenman's agenda and they know to expect inaction resulting in the continuing fall of the dollar. But hey, that's just me....and my guess.

Will head out later. Friend of mine is regional director of Junior Achievement and has rooked me into teaching world economics to 6th graders. Have a meeting on that this morn but told her I can't teach until after Mich. caucus. (Feb 7th) I have my priorities yanno. :-)

Will check back in a bit for wrap-up, dollar watch and all the great daily features I take for granted.

Hope all had a good weekend.

Julie

[ozymandius]

2. Good morning Julie and everyone!

:hi: I must hand it to Dean to hit the nail on the head - Greenman is too political and needs to step aside. The master bubble manager has really managed to screw things up with almost incoherent policy statements and policy enactments for at least twelve years. Perhaps Greenman is feeling a bit guilty for his contribution to papa Bush's defeat in '92.

Come, let's sip coffee and watch the blood and eyeballs fall to the floor.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

[llmart]

4. I agree....

it's time for some fresh blood at the Federal Reserve. Greenspan needs to go.

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
"Equities"

The price action this week is suggesting that we could now be near a very important juncture in the stock market. Notice on the weekly DJIA chart below that we have broken out of the rising wedge pattern in what is called a throw over. The question is: Does this upside breakout truly represent a throw over or has this rising wedge pattern been violated? At this time there is honestly no way to know. We must see price break down here if it is true throw over. If this is going to happen the price action of this week is now suggesting that we could be at or near the moment of truth. Notice that even given the parabolic rise through the top of this wedge that advancing volume was relatively weak. Also notice that since the parabolic rise began the market has closed higher each week. This phenomena changed this week. We now have the first down-week and this could be warning of a reversal. If we see more weakness next week we will then have the first indication that the upside breakout of the rising wedge could have truly been a throw over. I would not be long the market at this juncture.

The Dollar

The last confirmed 4-year cycle in the dollar bottomed in October 1998 at 90.74. See the monthly dollar chart below.

<cut>

I want to dig into these possibilities a little more here as this is extremely important. Historically, the 4-year cycle in the dollar has averaged 52 months. The longest 4-year cycle was 63 months. We are now in the 63rd month from the last confirmed 4-year cycle low in 1998. Because of the fact that the typical pattern seen at 4-year lows is absent, let’s assume for the moment that the current 4-year cycle low has not occurred and that it still lies ahead. This would mean that we should see a bottom for the dollar this month. If not, we will then be so far outside of the historical norm that we will perhaps have to assume that the pattern of seeing the seasonal low holding above the 4-year cycle low has been broken. If this proves to be the case the situation with the dollar will be extremely bearish. So, the bottom line here is that we had better see the dollar make the 4-year cycle low as it declines into the coming seasonal cycle low. Otherwise, we could see a disastrous decline in the dollar. My other point that I want to make clear here is that the dollar could very well be forming the 4-year cycle low now and if so we can expect to see a firming of the dollar that should hold for at least the duration of one seasonal cycle. The dollar is now at a very important juncture. The next few weeks and certainly the next month or so should tell the tale for the dollar.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

5. UFJ accused of hiding bad loans from FSA (bad news for investors)

International investor confidence in Japan's banks was damaged on Monday amid allegations that UFJ, the country's fourth largest bank, had deceived regulators about the true size of its non-performing loans.

A Japanese newspaper alleged the bank kept documents detailing the real size of its bad loan problem in a room that was only discovered by the Financial Services Agency, the banking regulator, after an anonymous tip off.

<cut>

"If the allegations are true, they are diabolical," said Brett Hemsley, associate director at Fitch, the credit rating agency. "If it has been lying to regulators it means it has also been lying to us and to its shareholders."

<cut>
International investors have been important contributors to the renaissance of the Japanese banking sector through high-profile deals such as Goldman Sachs' Y150bn investment in SMFG and the emergence of Sovereign Asset Management as the largest shareholder in UFJ. Sovereign was unavailable for comment on Monday.

story

My aside: I wonder what this could portend for the BoJ's dollar intervention should these other banks need infusions of cash.

[JNelson6563]

10. Who will carry us if Japan crumbles?

That's a scary question IMO.

Julie

[ozymandius]

6. Volatile shares hit by weakness of dollar

Is this how the weak dollar crumbles stocks?

Shares in Benfield, the London-quoted but Bermuda-registered reinsurer, have been volatile since listing at 250p in June last year. They peaked at 304p after Benfield revealed a threefold rise in interim pre-tax profit in September, which had been helped by its drive for revenues in the US.

But with more than 40 per cent of sales now made in the US, dollar weakness has hit the shares. The group's 2003 hedging was set for a worse-case scenario of $1.63 to the pound, but the rate has been above that since the middle of September and is now $1.84.

story

[ozymandius]

7. Treasuries Tumble on Demand Worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Treasury prices slid on Friday after a spike in the dollar stoked fears that foreign central bank appetite for U.S. government debt might falter.

The chain reaction began after a diplomatic source told Reuters that euro zone ministers attending a G7 meeting next month will argue that further strength in the euro might warrant an interest rate cut by the European Central Bank.

The comments knocked the euro lower against the dollar, which in turn sparked concern among traders that Asian central banks could cut back on their purchases of dollars.

<cut>
"Treasury has claimed it didn't want to issue anything beyond 10-years because that tied their hands," noted Drew Matus, senior financial economist at Lehman Brothers. "Now the market's thinking that if a 20-year is suddenly OK, then why not bring back the 30-year?"

story

[Fla_Dem]

8. Being new to DU

It amazes me the wealth of knowledge that can be found here. I have read back a few week's worth of this style thread and all I can say is "Thank you very much".

[JNelson6563]

9. Isn't it great Fla_Dem?

I love my fellow marketeers! They rock!

Thanks for the compliments on the thread and Welcome to DU!! :hi:

Julie

[Maeve]

11. Hello! I must be going

Mom's Taxi Service is being called in on account of weather--we bought a nice little Subaru Saturday, but there is still a Level 2 Emergency and OSU is in session. Oddly, #1 Son would rather not be behind the wheel (and I'd rather it was me driving, too!)

But here's a little something for y'all to chew on while I'm gone. Get yer fresh revisions here!!
Prettying up the job market
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Though U.S. jobs data have been ugly lately, some economists think the government's annual benchmark revisions, due in early February, will pretty the numbers up a bit.

But others say the effect could be akin to putting lipstick on a pig -- the job market's just not great, and the revisions won't disguise that.

On Feb. 6, the Labor Department is due to report January's unemployment rate and non-farm payroll growth. When it does, it will revise the payroll numbers for the past several months, possibly going as far back as January 1999.

Some economists believe the numbers for recent months -- including December, which showed a stunningly weak gain of just 1,000 new payroll jobs -- will be revised upward.
<more>

[ozymandius]

13. Good morning Maeve!

Almost synchronized posts on the job world no less!

Congratulations on the new vehicle. I am sure it will serve you well in the ice and snow and everything else. Thanks for dropping by!

job huntingly yours,

Ozy

[Maeve]

19. Thanks, ozy! And it has 4-wheel drive

So it's the best car we have for this weather. Roads aren't as bad as I feared, but we may get sleet befroe the day is done and he's still a bit car-shy.
Friday I had a performance in town and thought I'd be back home an hour or so before picking him up. Traffic and weather were so bad, I just made it to my home exit when the phone rang. I spent two hours in bumper-to-bumper slick road traffic! Better me than him, tho...

Continued good wishes for the job-hunt. Those of us on this thread know all too well what the market is like!

Ummm...I better get back to serious posting. Looks like someone flushed Wall Street again!

[54anickel]

15. Good Morning Maeve and all. This one statement in here struck a chord

in me.

What's more, some economists believe that structural changes in the economy are going to keep the payroll numbers weaker than usual. Jobless claims are down, they say, because businesses have stopped firing workers, while household employment is up because more people are calling themselves self-employed.

This is purely anecdotal, and I don't believe the practice is that wide spread. There seems to be a "hidden" market out there of laid off computer professionals working on the side off the books. One of the folks I worked with actually was back at the place we were laid off from working 3 days a week under this agreement for about 2 months and is now working at a customer's site 2-3 days a week under the same type of set up. I know of 3 others with hardware/software skills with similar circumstances.

Like I said, I don't think it's a wide spread trend, just something I've noticed in my little circle of acquaintances.

[ozymandius]

12. talking about jobs...

This is repost of Kalian's thread in the economic issues forum.


500 here...
http://www.whotv.com/Global/story.asp?S=1613442&nav=2HABKN7s

And a "huge" number here...
http://www.sunspot.net/business/investing/bal-kraft0123,0,7846043.story?coll=bal-business-headlines

Ford will announce more layoffs on Monday...
http://www.ksdk.com/news/news_article_lc.asp?storyid=53896

Yesterday as I surveyed the classified job ads in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, there was an absolute dearth of listings. What used to be a thick sampling of job ads has been rendered a pamphlet. The links above give me a pretty good indication why.

[ozymandius]

14. Stocks Set to Slide; Schering-Plough Off

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks are set to open slightly lower on Monday, as investors strike a cautious note and brace for a deluge of earnings reports.

This week marks one of the busiest in corporate America's quarterly reporting period. About 140, or almost 30 percent, of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index are due to release results this week.

<cut>

"We're looking at a bit of downward action early on, but nothing too extreme," said Tom Schrader, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Legg Mason Wood Walker in Baltimore. Weakness in European and Asian markets would carry over to U.S. stock trading at the open, he added.

story

You feel it? Today's forecast sounds like a rattle from a well-concealed snake. Ugly is on the way - but from where?

[UpInArms]

16. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.42 Change -0.14 (-0.16%)

related article (since you all seem to be finding a lot of them before I get to the party :D )

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/444817.cms

Global CEOs rue over slow US recovery, dollar crash

DAVOS (SWITZERLAND): Tepid optimism and gnawing concerns. This is the state of mind of a number of global business leaders and policy-makers gathering at this ski resort for the annual World Economic Forum meeting of the rich and powerful.

While noting that a recovery is slowly underway, they remain concerned about Europe’s struggling economy, a spendthrift US and a burgeoning Chinese economy. But most of all, what concerns many of them is the possibility of the dollar crashing. All these factors, they say, darkens the global economic outlook and could upset recovery in ’04.

“I am optimistic, but I am worried. I am concerned,” said Stephan Newhouse, president of investment banking giant Morgan Stanley US. For several years, the US has driven recovery worldwide. “That is not sustainable. That is a big question for me,” he said. If the US stumbles, the global engine sputters. The global economy is expected to expand by 3.5% in ’04, its fastest pace in several years, according to United Nations’ forecasts. But it is very lopsided. The US is sucking in imports from all over the world, driving up the US current account deficit as Americans borrow heavily. This, combined with the huge US budget deficit, is forcing down the value of the dollar in currency markets. The euro is bearing the brunt of the dollar’s fall, rising 20% last year.

...more...

A person could put their eye out on those spiky points on the chart today - guess it's time to put on safety glasses and be really careful.

If I were to take a shot at reading the tea leaves, I would say that the dollar is really really at a turning point. (Or as 54anickel would say - there's a 50/50 chance of something happening.) I think that with the inherent weakenesses in the maladministration's monetary policies and the politicization by Greenspan of the Fed, that the jig is up and the dollar is going down for the count.

Hang on to your hats, 'cause I don't think the G7s going to throw a rope or a bone - so it's going to be Mr. Toad's wild ride sooner than we would like.

Hope all you Marketeers have a great day!

[ozymandius]

21. Thanks UIA - insightful summation

I would agree that the jig's up on the dollar. Look how much attention the federal account/trade deficits are receiving, coupled with the depressed dollar discussion among parties that hold power over its intrinsic value.

Despite the warnings, despite the semblance of concern, the dollar continues to slide and account deficits get big enough to worry the IMF about global financial instability instigated by the U.S.'s policies. The jig is certainly up. If I were facing fiscal uncertainty that leans toward danger, something would happen in my part of the world to protect myself from the U.S.

[54anickel]

22. Morning UIA. Did you happen to take a peeksie at the 5 day

gold chart on Ino? Some pretty bizarre $3 to $4 momentary spikes going on there as well.

[54anickel]

32. Bit of "disunity" in the EU?

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/01/26/rtr1226955.html

FRANKFURT, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank issued a sharp warning to euro zone finance ministers on Monday against meddling in monetary policy, denying it had discussed cutting interest rates with them to tackle the strong euro.

Analysts said Europe's failure to speak with one voice on the euro before Group of Seven finance ministers meet next week might send the common currency even higher.

The ECB's denial, which underlined its independence from political interference in setting rates, contradicted comments by French Finance Minister Francis Mer on Saturday that he had discussed rate cuts with ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet.

more...

[UpInArms]

34. and the various EU currencies are

currently down against the dollar

ECH4 EuroFX Mar (CME) 1.25420 -0.00380
BPH4 British Pound Mar (CME) 1.8124 -0.0058
SFH4 Swiss Franc Mar (CME) 0.80270 -0.00330

[Maeve]

17. 9:55 and the market gods are smiling

Hmmm...that may be the beginnings of laughter, tho! Starting to slide now...
Dow 10,584.74 +16.45 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,128.56 +4.69 (+0.22%)
S&P 500 1,143.38 +1.83 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.090% +0.024

[ozymandius]

18. at 9:55 - the Casino shows positive averages

- and thebond market takes a hit
Dow 10,584.88 +16.59 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,126.35 +2.48 (+0.12%)
S&P 500 1,143.38 +1.83 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.085% +0.019

[Maeve]

20. Tandem posting again! But a few minutes later...

Dow 10,578.66 +10.37 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,122.77 -1.10 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,142.54 +0.99 (+0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.094% +0.028

[54anickel]

23. One more for the "Clueless" file.

Cheerleading like this is getting harder to find these days.
I post this for entertainment value only, there are some scary comments in this as well.

Please append the title with, "And What Are We Doing In This HANDBASKET?"

http://www.sierratimes.com/04/01/26/money.htm

We are beginning to see the impact of the tax reductions on our economy. Business investments have increased. The price of real estate is still rising. The value of our equity holdings have continued to grow. We as a country are wealthier. There has been dramatic improvements in the pension deficits that our major corporation were suffering under. This phenomenon had been holding back investment spending. Interest rates should remain low. We continue to experience improved productivity, without increased personnel expenses. These savings should flow to the bottom line. If you have been in the market, whether it be stocks, bonds, or gold, you have done well. For the average investor things continue to look good.

To place the mutual fund scandals into their proper perspective the impact on the individual investor was, and is, very small. It is also very interesting to note that very little money from the Enron, the Tyco, Worldcom, and other ethical violation prosecutions have produced any meaningful compensation for harmed individual investors. The vast majority of the fines go back to the states, and the tremendous awards have gone to the trial lawyers.

In a sense, all of this that has happen over the past couple of year has been part of a self-correcting mechanism that takes place as a result of the checks and balances in our national capitalist system. As we have said previously, and as we continue to believe, we have witnessed a dramatic period both in the correction of serious problems, as well as significant innovations, that will have a tremendous impact on the future growth, and development, of our national domestic product.


much more......

[Frodo]

24. The only thing that's going to help the "pension deficit"

Is for interest rates to go back up.

[Frodo]

25. Better-than-expected home resales figure

Just so you don't think "cheerleading" is TOO hard to find. I'll get my miniskirt out for you.


Increase to 6.47 Million (Expected decline from 6.12M to 6.05M).

Interrnals look good too. Tied for record (I think) low supply (4.3 months) and increase in year-over-year median price increase (6.7% median 9.7%^ average).

[54anickel]

30. Now THAT'S a disturbing visual.

Frodo in a cheerleading get up at the entrance to the newest McMansion sub-division, with the biggest bubble gum bubble I'd ever seen in my life.

[Robbien]

31. Could you please tell that to the Senators

Today H.R.3108 is being considered. This Pension bill is:

To amend the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 and the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to temporarily replace the 30-year Treasury rate with a rate based on long-term corporate bonds for certain pension plan funding requirements and other provisions, and for other purposes.

And it has bipartisan support.

You didn't really want your company pension did you?

[Frodo]

33. Well, yes and no.

(Yes, I DO want my pension. There are few enough companies left that HAVE them in the first place).

The bill could actually solve many fo the problems in the industry right now. The biggest problem is that low interest rates, while not directly tied to pension assets, affect the calculation of how much money a company should have today in the fund to pay your fiture benefits.

If you are 29 today and have earned (so far) a $5,000/year pension that you will start receiving benefits at 65. The company would need to have about $10,000 in your name today to fund that if the government says they have to calculate it based on a 6% return.

The same benefit calculated at 8% would only require $3900 to be set aside by that same company.

So the question of pension funding is largely "what rate of return will the plan earn over the next "x" years?" And even though the average investment portfolio can be expected to earn (over decades) well above the current calculated rates (based on currently super-low treasury securities), the law says they have to calculate using that lower number. It's largely a problem of calculation, rather than funding (in most cases).

They could "fix" the problem by raising rates, so that the calculated "required" balances come back in-line with what you can expect the fund to earn - but that wouldn't help Bush out, would it? OR, they can change the calculation to reflect something "rational", but still outside the control of the regulated industries... and since most pensions hold a significant mix of corporate bonds it makes some sense.

[UpInArms]

35. from The Daily Reckoning

<snipped>- Denning: "According the most recent data, corporate
private pension plans have $1.5 trillion in assets. Agency
securities - bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac -
make up 11% of those assets held outright. Fannie and
Freddie bonds are the third-largest asset type held by
private pension funds. What is NOT disclosed is the dollar
value of 'agency assets' held by publicly traded
corporations - which make corporate bonds and equities
vulnerable to the direction of the mortgage market." Bottom
line: pension exposure to mortgage debt is huge... and
growing.


- Meanwhile, federal regulators, reports the Financial
Times this morning, are asking Freddie Mac to add
additional capital reserves to the company's
coffers... because it "remains exposed to 'substantial
management and operations risk.'"


- But that's only the half of it. "Since the Nasdaq bubble
burst," says Denning, "home equity and real estate have
skyrocketed as a percentage of total household net worth.
In 1999, real estate and housing values accounted for $11.5
trillion worth of household net worth, or about 27% of the
$42 trillion total. Stocks and mutual funds, at $12.1
trillion, made up 28% of household net worth. They were
about even.


- "The mortgage bubble has changed all that. By the third
quarter of 2003, real estate and housing values totaled
$15.8 trillion, or 38% of household net worth. Stocks,
still well down from their 2000 high, are only 19% of total
household net worth at $8 trillion.


- "This bubble," concludes Denning, "is even more dangerous
than the stock market. Housing and real estate are at the
epicenter of American household net worth."


- Should the zero-money down proposal get approved by
Congress, you can bet investors in homebuilding stocks will
continue to be rewarded. But the idea gives Dan Denning the
creeps. Bubble" on the Daily Reckoning website:


http://www.dailyreckoning.com/body_headline.cfm?id=3712

[ozymandius]

27. Props to Elliot Spitzer, rot to Greenspan

Where has this columnist been? In a cave? Spitzer has been cleaning up this "national capitalist system" with criminal prosecution. These fuckers, the Siegels, can spare us the mystical nonsense about the genius of capitalism. We might now have that 30,000 Dow that O'Neill predicted if so much criminal activity had not shaken up the investment world. Let's not forget the willful obfuscation of the SEC under Harvey Pitt and a complicit Republican-led congress.

"We have major problems, but the problems are not economic, as much as geo-political. Obviously, the various deficits, our international balance of payments, and international dollar overhang are serious. We will respond to these problems, if, and when, we have the political will. We will address them by reducing spending as well as increasing productivity. From a geo-political perspective it has been amazing how many mine fields we have avoided. Keep your fingers crossed."

My gods - what genius! Fie!

ON EDIT: This individual investor still has less now than half my portfolio's value in 1999. So their line, "For the average investor things continue to look good," does not register here. I'm average and it sucks being me.

[54anickel]

28. Love to get a rise out of someone on a "Clueless" post. It helps to

point out some of the major problems that otherwise tend to be overlooked in the media posts.
Thank you for that insightful feedback. The past corruption barely gets mentioned anymore.
Hope I didn't get your blood boiling too much. :evilgrin:

[KoKo]

38. The author of this article is a real Winger. Check out this statement !

"Barring some unforeseen tragedy, we anticipate that George W. Bush will be re-elected with a strong possibility that there will be an increased Republican majority in the Congress. This will eliminate much of the rancor that presently exists as small, powerful groups lose their ability to create dissent."

Eliminating dissent........hmmmmm.......

[54anickel]

39. Yes, the scary question is, how many share his thoughts and values? n/t

[Maeve]

26. 10:41 and don't look at the charts too closely today

You could put your eye out with one of those things! Nasdaq getting the worst of it so far..
Dow 10,581.70 +13.41 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,117.91 -5.96 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,142.25 +0.70 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.099% +0.033

[ozymandius]

29. 10:56 final figures for awhile

I must be going. The son and I need to have a day together outside. Have a wonderful day Marketeers! :hi:

Dow 10,605.03 +36.74 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,120.45 -3.42 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,143.92 +2.37 (+0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.095% +0.029

[Maeve]

36. 12:27 and today's term is "range-bound" (side of blather)

12:00PM: Today's spiritless trade has seen the market vacillate in a relatively tight trading range, with the blue-chip averages posting small gains and the Nasdaq showing mild losses... This morning's generally better than expected earnings reports have failed to boost the market's momentum in a meaningful fashion, just like the stronger than expected Existing Home Sales report for December (at 6.47 mln vs. consensus of 6.10 mln) has not amounted to a winning housing sector...
Just like last week, while earnings growth is strong and the economy is accelerating, the market has been undermined by valuations concerns... Briefing.com, for its part, agrees that valuation has reached loftier levels, yet we think current multiples are justified, keeping in mind the historically low interest rates... Accordingly, as explained in The Big Picture column, 2004 is expected to be another winning year for stocks, although not as strong as 2003...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 10,598.51 +30.22 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,122.62 -1.25 (-0.06%)
S&P 500 1,143.41 +1.86 (+0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.105% +0.039

[Maeve]

37. 1:30 and getting on the upside of the range

Dow 10,605.11 +36.82 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,124.67 +0.80 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,144.35 +2.80 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.105% +0.039

[54anickel]

40. Interesting thoughts on the threat of deflation.

I read somewhere recently that Greenspan was concerned about the CPI at the low 1%. The speech UIA posted last week pointed out that the Fed has no idea about how to combat deflation. So, is it a real possibility again?

I just recently read an article that discussed the reduction in the money supply, the author was attempting to figure out why it was shrinking. That article looked at money moving out of bank deposits as the possible cause.

Here's an interesting and different take on the the deflation idea.

http://www.depression2.tv/nwo/archives/000019.html

snip>
Last year was good year for the stock markets. The second great depression has been postponed, but not averted. Deflation is still knocking at the door. How does deflation happen? Deflation is a monetary phenomenon, and describes a reduction in the money supply. Imagine for a moment a poor soul who owes Chase Manhattan bank $10,000 on a credit card. Since losing his good job at IBM (it moved to India), he hasn’t been able to keep up on the payments, but not willing to sacrifice either his pride or his good credit rating, he’s been using his Citibank card to pay off the Chase card. By making the minimum payments, he’s barely reduced the principal with Chase, but has managed to rack up another $5,000 with Citibank. This is not an uncommon tale. Funny how accounting works, because both Chase and Citibank view these sums as *assets* on their balance sheets. Lets get this straight: Two multibillion-dollar corporations are relying on an unlucky, unemployed worker (and millions like him, with no prospects for new jobs), who are swapping paper back and forth between banks. There is no value created here, it is only accounting trickery. When the unemployed debtor finally declares bankruptcy, the ‘assets’ of the bankers disappear. Viola, deflation. Deflating assets caused by defaults domino through the economy. With bankrupt consumers unable to secure credit (it is suddenly too risky to lend), they have no ‘money’ to spend, so demand dries up, and prices fall further. The deflationary spiral deepens.

[Maeve]

41. go away for a cople of hours and WOW

Dow 10,695.18 +126.89 (+1.20%)
Nasdaq 2,148.92 +25.05 (+1.18%)
S&P 500 1,154.09 +12.53 (+1.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.140% +0.074

Why? :shrug: Briefing.com says "optimism".

[Teaser]

42. Bubble II...

Electric Boogaloo!

[54anickel]

43. 1 week early for the 68th week 2nd rally? n/t

[Maeve]

44. Final numbers with blather

Dow 10,702.51 +134.22 (+1.27%)
Nasdaq 2,153.83 +29.96 (+1.41%)
S&P 500 1,155.37 +13.82 (+1.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.140% +0.074

Close: What started out as a spiritless session turned into a full-fledged rally, as the major averages advanced into the close after spending the first half of the session with the blue-chip averages hugging the flat line to the plus-side and the Nasdaq to the down-side... The stock market's optimism in the early going was marred by valuation concerns, which have become all too familiar over the past week... While valuations are high, Briefing.com has noted that current levels are reasonable and justified by the historically-low interest rates...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[54anickel]

45. Rally in the market, rally in the dollar, and gold as well as silver held

up quite well all things considered.