Obama Leads McCain in Four Key Battleground States: Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota

[DeepModem Mom]

Source: Washington Post

By Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com Staff Writer
Thursday, June 26, 2008

Democrat Barack Obama holds narrow leads over GOP rival John McCain in Colorado and Michigan, two of the most competitive states in two of the most competitive regions of the country heading into the general-election campaign, according to surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University for washingtonpost.com and the Wall Street Journal.

In two other states that were closely contested in the 2004 presidential election -- Wisconsin and Minnesota -- Obama holds double-digit edges among likely voters, an indication that these states may not be in the swing category this election. The Democratic Party's presidential nominee carried both Wisconsin and Minnesota in each of the last four elections, although Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) won each by slim margins in 2004.

The four surveys are the kickoff of a four-month effort to measure voter sentiment in key battleground states. They echo several recent national polls -- including surveys conducted for Newsweek and the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg -- showing Obama with a double-digit lead over McCain, the GOP candidate. However, other national surveys -- including the Gallup daily tracking poll -- show the race to be much closer.

The path to the presidency runs through a handful of battleground states, as both Obama and McCain seek the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Thus, the four states surveyed in this project provide a snapshot of where things stand less than five months before Election Day. If the 2004 election was a battle of the bases, the battleground surveys suggest the 2008 fight is shaping up to be one in which independent voters who align with neither party are the crucial bloc....

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/26/AR2008062601307.html?nav=hcmodule

[dflprincess]

1. How big a battleground Minnesota is depends on who you talk to

Many of us think, not so much.

It's not quite as blue as it used to be but it hasn't gone to the Republicans in the presidential race since 1972. An incumbant Republican was ousted in the 1st District in 2006 and Amy Klobuchar creamed the Republican candidate in the Senate race the same year.

True, Tim Pawlenty has been elected twice, but both times it was a 3 way race and he won with a plurality, not a majority. The same holds true of the Ventura election in 1998. The last 3 governors races have resulted in a governor who received well under 50% of vote taking office. DFLers hold all the other statewide Constitutional offices (Attorney General, Secretary of State and Auditor).

[DeepModem Mom]

2. Thanks for your "on the ground" view, dflprincess! nt

[Hawaii Hiker]

4. I think many over-stated Pawlenty's effect

The Quinnipiaic poll said adding Pawlenty to McBush's ticket doesn't do much..

"Sen. Obama sweeps nearly every demographic group in Minnesota, including whites and blue collar workers, to lead by 17 points, the biggest lead in the four states surveyed. At the same time, Republican Sen. Norm Coleman, with overwhelming support among men and a tie among women, has a 10-point overall lead over comedian Al Franken, the Democratic challenger," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Most voters say it would not make any difference in their vote if Gov. Tim Pawlenty is McCain's running mate," Richards added".

[MnFats]

5. recall also that Kerry won in both Edina and Bloomington, well-off suburbs...

...this was seen as a sea change but it may have just been people with avg. high education level coming to their senses and voting in their own best interest for a change.
for ages that area was considered granite-solid GOP territory

[jamesA]

8. Think -- Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida.

Think -- Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida.

[gratuitous]

3. No! Wyoming and Kansas are "battleground" states

Don't look at states where Obama is pulling ahead. Look only at the states still in thrall to the worst excesses of the Republicans, where Straight-Talkin' Johnny Maverick is still revered or hasn't put in a campaign appearance yet (or most likely both).

If you start looking at states where people are fed the fuck up with the GOP, of course Obama's going to be polling well. We need more polls of country club members, yacht owners, and other spoiled overrich people for whom too much is never quite enough. You're undersampling STJM's base!

[KamaAina]

6. How can Coleman possibly be ahead?

That implies that a sizable chunk of Obama voters would defect to Coleman, the man who "changed parties as easily as he changes his hairstyle". :wtf:

[Art_from_Ark]

7. Perhaps a sizeable number of people

just can't think of a comedian as a serious candidate, sort of like Pat Paulsen for President, or Gary Coleman for Governor :shrug:

[KamaAina]

9. Or Jesse "The Body" Ventura for Governor

oh, wait a minute... my bad. :-)