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Edited on Sun Jul-13-08 12:11 AM by happyslug
What will corporate farms do??? They depend on miles and miles of the same crop for maximum efficiency. Bees are shipped from one mono-culture area to another as the crops come into flower. In nature, bees stay in one area and then go to different plants in the same area as those plants come into flower. When we had small farms, the Farmers did the same, planting different crops on their farms so that each would come into flower one after another, but that means one has to shift harvesting technical i.e as each plant come into harvest you harvest, you do NOT buy a tractor to do it all at once (or high a group of migrant labors to harvest the crop all at once).
The bee shortage will be just the first step in the collapse of Corporate farms. Higher price of fuel will lead to two different but interrelated problems. First is that tractors will lose their advantages over horses as the price of oil goes up. This will probably take decades, but will be a steady problem for most farmers. The Second problem is harvesting. Unless it is a grain crop, the crop is still harvested by hand. Such laborers are poorly paid as it is, but with the price of Gasoline going up, their ability to break even goes down. Thus you will see a situation where such migrant workers slowly refuse to migrant unless paid much more then they are being paid now, at a time when farmers are also facing high oil prices and other increases in costs.
What I see coming, and it will take decades to work its way through, is larger corporate farms going bankrupt or otherwise being divided up into much smaller farms (Share cropping may even come back, i.e. a Farmer rents his farm from the land owner who rent is paid in percentage of the crop from the farm). Such small farms will have many different crops in them AND various "wild" plants will exist on the borders between these farms. Together the use of many crops AND the increase wild plants will permit local bees (Mostly Yellow jackets and bumble Bees) to pollinate the plants. If honey bees survive they will be local bees only, as shipping them will be banned to minimize the spread of the disease affecting them now (Even if those diseases are NOT the primary cause of the bee collapse).
People forget since the WWII, on a per farmer basis and on a per acre per crop basis, farming productively has increased, it has declined in terms of Total Crops. The reason for this is in the days of the Family farm it was the practice to plant multiple crops on the same acres of land. i.e. Corn, bans and pumpkins. These three plants grow while together, but if you plant them together mechanical harvesting in NOT possible. Thus going with just one crop per acre, you can harvest the Corn and Beans by machine while the Pumpkin still has to be harvested by hand. If you look at each crop separately modern mechanical production is vastly more productive then old fashion farming, but if you look at them as a whole, the old style farming is more productive on a per acre basis (The Soviet Union has this problem, the communal farms were vastly productive on a per acre basis, but could NOT produce the food the Soviet Union needed. What feed the Soviet Union was the various small plots of land each peasant worked themselves while a member of the Commune. Again these plots were NOT productive on a per worker or per plant per crop basis, but only on a total crops per acre basis.
Thus the solution is a return to small farms, but such small farms are NOT profitable to even pay the taxes on the homes the small farmers have to live in today. Such small farms will be productive once oil goes through the roof and the horse again becomes the main source of power on the farm, but then expect food to increase in price so that it will equal 50% of your budget (as is the historically norm for non-farming families).
The big problem will NOT be when we arrive at that point but the process getting to that point. Larger farms will try everything else first, including any crap idea that comes down the pike (i.e. electric tractors charged by solar panels on their barns and homes, the problem is given the power needed and the inefficiently on battery shortage, much less productive then a return to the horse, but it will be tried to avoid having to break up the farms and abandon Mono-culture). Another idea I foresee is some sort of Nuclear powered tractor. I never see it getting beyond the drawing board but it will be constantly brought up.
The smart solution would be to use the bee problem to start the process of making Farms smaller, but given the opposition to such plans by corporate farmers, nothing will happen till a disaster hits (i.e. massive bankruptcy do to the inability to grow crops at prices people can pay). I do NOT see a massive starving time as some real radicals foresee, but more of a hugh increase in food prices, followed by massive use of backyards for gardens (Maybe even a retention of suburban homes do to the yard being converted to a garden by its owners even as the owners abandon the home to live closer to where they work, in the late 1800s various city dwellers bought such mini-farms in what is my home towns suburbans for such crops, visited once or twice a month and harvested the crop when it ripen).
My point is the solution to the problem may be HOW out society is formed (i.e. only 3% of our population producing the food that we eat). The technical solutions can help, but it seems more and more the problem is how fast things spread do to the fact we move the bees around and thus they come into contact with other bees more often then if the bees did NOT move around. If you ban the movement of bees, mono-culture gets a big hit and becomes unprofitable which leads to the question of what will replace it? The existing owners of farm land will thus fight any proposal to ban movement of Honey bees, for such a ban will force them to change (i.e. go into a new crop or sell they land to people who can farm without shipping in honey bees). The Government will NOT step in until it is a complete disaster (and then to appease the people complaining the most, the corporate farmers). When all else fails the Government will do what is needed, but it will take time, maybe decades (and there is a good Change the Government will do NOTHING, will still come when the Honey bee disappear and all that is left is the native bees, which can NOT be shipped clear across the Country like Honey bees).
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