China's economy to become world's biggest in 2035: study

[UpInArms]

Source: AFP

WASHINGTON (AFP) - China's economy will overtake that of the United States by 2035 and be twice its size by midcentury, a study released Tuesday by a US research organization concluded.

The report by economist Albert Keidel of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said China's rapid growth is driven by domestic demand more than exports, which will be sustainable over the coming decades.

"China's economic performance clearly is no flash in the pan," Keidel writes.

"Its growth this decade has averaged more than 10 percent a year and is still going strong in the first half of 2008. Because its success in recent decades has not been export-led but driven by domestic demand, its rapid growth can continue well into the 21st century, unfettered by world market limitation."

Keidel, who has worked as a World Bank economist and US Treasury official, said the rise of China to the world's biggest economy will happen regardless of the method of calculation.

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080709/bs_afp/useconomysurveychina

[truthisfreedom]

1. Well, except for that little global warming problem.

[bean fidhleir]

34. Exactly. Between their growth and India's, that'll finish what we started:

Making the planet uninhabitable.

[sasquatch]

2. Nice job Boomers

[Narkos]

3. Careful. There a lot of touchy boomers on DU!

[bluestateguy]

11. Boomers are good for ideological chest-thumping. It takes an Xer to get the job done.

nt

[raccoon]

23. This boomer isn't going to buy into a guilt trip about global warming.

Let me remind you, my friend, that the boomers resisted and demonstrated against the draft. If not for that, you might be in Iraq or Afghanistan today.

But even apart from that, I'm not accepting guilt and blame. I did what I could to improve things. I wasn't one of the power elite who could make all the important decisions, just another citizen of the empire.

[Le Taz Hot]

35. Spoken from one of the members of the

"What-have-you-done-for-me-lately" generation.

Civil Rights
Women's Rights
Student Rights
Peace Corp
Right to an abortion
Personal Computers

Any of these sound familiar, there, Sparky?

And Gen Xer's have done . . . . <crickets>:eyes:

[sasquatch]

38. Almost all of those are from trhe Greatest Generation

Including PC's.

[Le Taz Hot]

39. Really?

You know, I was going to debate with you but I know a waste of time when I see it. You're right, honey, the Baby Boomers are SOLELY responsible for global warming. I'm just going to let your post sit there for all to see.

[LanternWaste]

57. It's tough to work oneself...

It's tough to work oneself up into a good, old-fashioned, simplistic righteous rage without a specious yet obvious target to point at. It's an effective tactic straight out of the A.M. Radio Talk Show playbook.

The children will blame the adults for the world's evils, the adults will blame the children for the decline in civility and morality-- as has been done so for generations upon generations.

And as every generation, the Boomers did both good and ill, the Slacker Generation will do both good and ill, and so on...

[ima_sinnic]

53. yes, the "me-firsters" who couldn't survive for one hour without their self-indulgent energy-wasting

gadgets, gewgaws, cell phones, iPods, video games, and shopping malls. What are poor widdle Gen-Xers going to do when even the gadgets can't save their unresourceful, spoiled widdle asses from the accumulated effects of the pollution those gadgets are spewing? Take away their gadgets, and their cars, and they are totally helpless. Many of them can't even tell time on an analog clock fercrissake.

Name one Gen-Xer who was in Birmingham AL in the 1960s, at Kent State in 1970, or had to resort to a coathanger abortion in a back-alley clandestine kitchen-table "clinic." Where are the Gen-X war resisters and lunch-counter sitters?

[closeupready]

4. So in 2035, not only will we have lost our bearings on human rights, but also our

status as the world's largest economy. This is what a country on the right track looks like? :crazy: Race to the bottom. And they are all in such a rush to pass the FISA bill. :mad:

[dysfunctional press]

5. the Haves and the Havemores don't CARE what the u.s. economy will be in 2035...

they care about how much money they'll personally have when they die.

[Tutonic]

6. They'd better. When $1.00 is equivelant to 1/10 of a cent--they'll

pay attention. Sort of like the Peso.

[rpannier]

7. At the rate other economies are collapsing I wouldn't be surprised if by 2035

Belize had the world's largest economy.

[The Liberal Thinker]

8. By then the political situation will have become unstable.

A nation with rising standard of living is going to demand liberalization of government and economy. The Communist government will either have to cede power or be destroyed by the people. And when that happens, there's going to be chaos in China among all the ethnic groups and retribution for years of inequality under the communist regime.

Even if that doesn't happen, China's economic growth hasn't been trickling down, shall I say, to the lower classes. There is still an unbelievably poor segment of China that happens to be immense.

America is weakening in strength, but I'm not too worried about China. Jon Stewart said it best on the Daily Show just a couple weeks ago: "The fact that they're shitting in holes in the ground makes their whole new superpower status a little less intimidating."

[WCGreen]

9. 1.3 billion...

The .3 billion are middle class.

The rest...

Peasants.

[Fovea]

10. I see this as the start of another

Three Kingdoms period for China.

And before it ends there will be violence within China
that will make the Japanese invasion seem jovial.

I predict that it make even go Nuclear... on itself.

[Indenturedebtor]

13. I seriously doubt it. The nationlism there is unbelievable.

Truly unbelievable. They think that China invented everything. It's pretty funny really. Half of their music is our music in Chinese but they have no idea heh.

[WriteDown]

21. Most people do not understand the Asian mentality...

It is similar in Japan. They are superior to all other peoples. You are spot on with your analysis.

[Fovea]

33. They were just as Chinese when Wei, Shu, and Wu

were the political entities that comprised the Chinese. Perhaps more so, because they had not yet been successfully invaded by the Han or Pwnd by the West.

Do not confuse a nationalist streak for political stability. China's history does not justify it.

[Indenturedebtor]

40. That was a very different time though. Regional nationalism was the patriotism of the day

Now the Han, the Wu, etc see themselves as Chinese ... not Han, etc.

There may well be turmoil but I don't think that fragmentation is anything more than a very far remote possibility.

[Fovea]

41. How many academic hours of Chinese history do you have?

I only have three, plus three hours of Chinese politics.
So I could be wrong of course.

Are any of your hours graduate level, as mine are all undergrad?

[Indenturedebtor]

43. I took a 4 hour course on Medieval Chinese History

It was one of my favorite courses actually. I took three courses on European history and it was great to compare the political and societal developments which turned out to be nearly identical though occured at different times.

I also took a Philosphy course which compared Eastern and Western philosophy (specifically on the concept of Self), and so touched on many of the same concepts and of course dealt heavily with the Kingdoms. And 1 course on World history which dealt briefly with that period in time. Most of what I've learned though was by going to China and reading and going to museums for the couple months I was there.

I'm certainly no expert! Though a proud dabbler heh.

[Fovea]

44. Here is my point then

As the Imperial court fragmented via a weak Emperor, both internal and regional tensions affected the Middle Kingdom. The failure of the Han to maintain Qin provided the opportunity for other, more ambitious Chinese to engross their status. That is straight up Mohism, as I understand it.

No son was old enough to resist the concubines/eunuchs from within, and the challenges of the Mohists from military arm of the imperial body politic. The Shu, the Wu, and the Wei, IIRC all considered themselves Emperors of a lesser China, and they fought like hell to make One China, just as today the Chinese feel themselves in that struggle against Tai Wei, Tibet, etc.

Somewhat like the minority of Henry the Sixth in England, there was both intrigue and overt violence for sixty some years.

Now, if China's economic mastery fails to provide the admittedly western idea of progress to the toiling masses, and fails to avert the calamity their own excesses have created, China will do what it always does when the center loses the mandate of heaven.


While in times of harmony, dynasties generally last about 300-400 years, periods like the Three Kingdoms, and Ten Kingdoms show that the Chinese are prone to millennial scale upheavals that often last only a hundred years or so, and then resolve, with new dynasties often ruling from different regions.

While the north has been more traditionally stable than the south, the Sung Chinese are the more western influenced in the current milieu. I do not believe the PRC is here for anything like the long haul. I honestly think that Democracy will re-assert itself in the South, more accustomed to smaller, independent states than the North, where much of the hard core support for the PRC still remains.

I think the initiating crisis will be ecological, as China has had a string of ecological disasters, some of which relate directly to the policies of the PRC.

I firmly believe that there will be two Chinas, and the west will fragment into warlord led states again.

But as I say, my formal study is limited.

[Indenturedebtor]

45. You forget though Modern Chinese history

The struggle of uniting China has always been one of establishing Nationalism over regional loyalty.

Though different regions still speak different dialects ALL power has been consolidated in Beijing. There are no regional armies or even true regional governments. People watch the same TV, see the same movies (with subtitles), etc. They no longer see themselves as anything but Chinese. In the warring states period there was some concept of nationalism left over from before the breakdown, but nothing like the unified China you see today. In much the same way that America will likely never break down into dozens of nation-states or regions, the idea of a ressurected Wu Kingdom would be anathema to the average Chinese Person.

Furthermore in historical context - if you'll remember that most of the food was produced in a few regions (mostly southern China), the rest of the kingdoms couldn't long stand to see China divided. The situation is the same today except the South doesn't have it's own army or it's own treasury to resist the North. If Beijing wants to come in it's coming in.

Also if you'll remember, in order to unify and solidify China the early Emperors did a great deal to enact one written language, a common transporation system, a common defense, a common religion, etc. The Communists have taken this 10 steps further. If you visit China today you will see some scattered villages that live much the same as they have for thousands of years. But most of China is covered in massive sprawling cities full of skyscrapers and commuter trains, malls and schools. Their small town is our metropolis. While they have 1.3 billion people or so, and a great proportion of them live "primitively", they have far more people living a modern life than the 300 million citizens here in the US. This modern life does wonders to make people reluctant to buck the system. Who will run the trains? Who will stock the grocery stores?

Also, during the warring states period the Chinese had no real external enemies. The people of Modern China are now united in common purpose, and truly believe that they are all in it together. Though I think that China will eventually become something like a Democracy, that change will have to happen in Beijing.

Though Tibet could eventually break off... and possibly even Inner Mongolia.

[Indenturedebtor]

12. Our growth hasn't been either

Go there and revise your assessment. Their cities are pretty damn amazing. Shitting in a hole in the ground is more a cultural affectation than anything else. In almost two months spent in mainland China I never once had a problem finding a Western toilet. It's actually healthier to squat when you poop... they get almost no hemroids heh.

Further they are actually making massive investments in infrastructure and education. Unlike the US. We are only focused on short term profit for our richest. Our fall will be meteoric :(

[kimmylavin]

14. Well, why not?

The US economy is currently held up by Chinese money, and we buy all the cheap crap they make with their cheap workforce.

Just a matter of time...

[depakid]

15. I always have to laugh at narrow minded neoclassical economists

They must live in some sort of wierd little bubble, making their projections as if natural laws like thermodynamics and basic ecological principles don't apply.

Factor in those laws, and what you find is that China is the poster child for overshoot and collapse.

[hogwyld]

25. And money trumps all of those

They have the cash to overcome any obstacle that MAY come their way. They can outbid us for oil, buy Siberia for water, etc. Why do you think they are in overshoot prior to collapse? My uneducated guess, is that it will keep on going.

[bean fidhleir]

36. "China is the poster child for overshoot and collapse"

Like India. Both countries are balanced on the knife-edge of technology, and it's wobbling like hell.

[Flagg]

16. I hope China will have become a free country by then

[onehandle]

17. Our future masters are ready for us to pay the check.

And we think that Iran is a threat.

ha ha ha...

[Pavulon]

18. Japan first, then Germany (was close),

china. Lots of people own us debt. Lets see if they dont choke themselves out of the environment first.

They are industrializing right now.

[muriel_volestrangler]

19. Not surprising - its population will still be nearly 4 times the USA's in 2035

In terms of relative GDP per capita, compared to the USA, this is like saying China will be as rich as Uruguay (GDP per capita $11,600 today, compared with USA $45,800).

[skoalyman]

20. 2035 the new china will probably be us

making everything here for peanuts;(

[WriteDown]

22. Wonder....

How much life will be left in the oceans at that point. Or how much environmental damage will be done to their own land.

[hogwyld]

31. I don't think you understand

THEY DON'T CARE. Now that I've gotten that off my chest, I think that after they've taken over most of asia and the middle east, the rest will just wilt.

[WriteDown]

32. No, I understand....

I was just wondering :)

[demo dutch]

54. Believe or not China is gaining speed as a world leader in the development of renewable energy

technologies. In 2006 China passed a renewable energy law to encourage the growth of clean energy companies, and has started to convert over to wind and solar from coal and hydro

The country’s lack of natural resources and growing need for fuel and electricity are giving rise to a new Chinese industrial revolution in clean energy. Couple that with its booming population which is straining the energy infrastructure and putting ever increasing pressure on the government many analysts predict that that renewable energies such as wind, solar, and biofuels are expected to grow into a $100 billion market over the next 15 years in China, making it a global powerhouse in renewables.

http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/invest-renewable-energy-china/
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/biztech/articles/060612/12china.htm

[JCMach1]

24. Too bad it isn't sustainable without destroying the planet...

[Kelvin Mace]

26. It always amazes me that people get paid to be this stupid.

The big fact missing from this prediction is that such growth in China is NOT sustainable for quite a few reasons:

• Oil supplies are starting to peak and China will see energy costs spiral into the stratosphere as the world chases ever dwindling oil reserves.

• China is having a hard time feeding its population now, and will need to import more and more food as time goes on. Farmers, who are getting very tired of being badly treated by the government, are leaving their farms for industrial work. Also it is very hard to sustain a 21st century economy with 19th century farming methods. And even where China is modernizing its farming, it does so just in time for skyrocketing costs in fuel, fertilizer and pesticides.

• China's pollution problems are spinning out of control. Uncontrolled growth and non-existent environmental laws are having a dire effect on Chinese air and water quality. The reason things are cheap in China is because manufacturers don't have to obey any of the pesky environmental laws (or health and safety laws) that they do in the U.S. Pretty soon, China is going to start choking on its own poison.

• China's oppressive government cannot last forever. As SOME Chinese have become more affluent, the gap between rich and poor continues to grow, and the rich are not in the least bit interested in paying for any of the mechanisms that are making them rich. While there are lots of taxes on the books that are supposed to fund China's infrastructure, quite a few loopholes exist, and corruption opens lots more. Corruption in this area is pretty substantial. Also, as the economy expands, so does inflation which erodes even the social safety nets (pensions, housing subsidies, health care) that remain. This is a recipe for unrest and political volatility.

• Corruption in the business sector is rampant. What laws are on the books can generally be ignored with a bribe to the right official(s). Despite such corruption carrying the death penalty, it exists and flourishes. At the moment, with rivers of money flowing, the amounts being "diverted" by corruption are mostly unnoticed. When the rivers become creeks, the corruption will a substantial drain on the economy.

• China's economy is entangled in a "deadly embrace" with the U.S. economy, and that entanglement grows tighter each year. BushCo has used borrowed Chinese money to fund its illegal war in Iraq, while the U.S. has been the major buyer of Chinese goods. But as more jobs are lost to China, unemployment will soar and even cheap Chinese goods will become luxuries to Americans, especially since high transportation costs will raise the prices of those goods. Thanks to the naked greed of Wall Street, the U.S. economy is circling the drain, and once it collapses, a major part of China's income evaporates. When that happens, China will start calling in loans, resulting in more economic collapse. The Sino-American Ponzi scheme will soon come crashing down and the results will be ugly.

• China has three major economic rivals who would be very happy to throw sand into her economic machinery. Russia, Japan, and the European Union are very wary of China's growing economic might, especially when it comes with a nuclear arsenal and a weapon's trade that is making lots of money peddling weapons to hot spots around the world (especially when those weapons are cheaper than the ones peddled by Russia, Japan and the E.U.) While certainly dependent on China's cheap goods themselves, they have avoided the mutual suicide pact that the U.S. and China entered into. While things could be very bad in the short term economically for these players, a future world with the U.S. and China economically neutered is VERY appealing to them.

With all these elements working against her, the likelihood of China becoming the dominant world economy is a long shot, rather than a certainty. The future of China's economy is filled with the obstacles of mass starvation, environmental collapse, economic implosion, and political bloodbaths.

And I have a five gallon can of gasoline to bet with any economist who thinks otherwise.

[hogwyld]

27. I disagree with your analysis, and provide a rebuttal

• Oil supplies are starting to peak and China will see energy costs spiral into the stratosphere as the world chases ever dwindling oil reserves.

China generates most of it's electricity through coal and hydro. It's starting to convert over to wind and solar.

• China is having a hard time feeding its population now, and will need to import more and more food as time goes on. Farmers, who are getting very tired of being badly treated by the government, are leaving their farms for industrial work. Also it is very hard to sustain a 21st century economy with 19th century farming methods. And even where China is modernizing its farming, it does so just in time for skyrocketing costs in fuel, fertilizer and pesticides.

So what? They have the cash to purchase food just like every other nation out there. I'm sure England, Japan, etc aren't self sufficient in food either. The U.S. imports large quantities of food as well.

• China's pollution problems are spinning out of control. Uncontrolled growth and non-existent environmental laws are having a dire effect on Chinese air and water quality. The reason things are cheap in China is because manufacturers don't have to obey any of the pesky environmental laws (or health and safety laws) that they do in the U.S. Pretty soon, China is going to start choking on its own poison.

The majority of their air pollution blows out over Japan, Korea, and eventually the U.S.

• China's oppressive government cannot last forever. As SOME Chinese have become more affluent, the gap between rich and poor continues to grow, and the rich are not in the least bit interested in paying for any of the mechanisms that are making them rich. While there are lots of taxes on the books that are supposed to fund China's infrastructure, quite a few loopholes exist, and corruption opens lots more. Corruption in this area is pretty substantial. Also, as the economy expands, so does inflation which erodes even the social safety nets (pensions, housing subsidies, health care) that remain. This is a recipe for unrest and political volatility.

• Corruption in the business sector is rampant. What laws are on the books can generally be ignored with a bribe to the right official(s). Despite such corruption carrying the death penalty, it exists and flourishes. At the moment, with rivers of money flowing, the amounts being "diverted" by corruption are mostly unnoticed. When the rivers become creeks, the corruption will a substantial drain on the economy.

People have been saying such things about other governments since Jesus was a baby. As long as their basic needs are met, people generally don't want to "rock the boat" See Cuba for an example.

• China's economy is entangled in a "deadly embrace" with the U.S. economy, and that entanglement grows tighter each year. BushCo has used borrowed Chinese money to fund its illegal war in Iraq, while the U.S. has been the major buyer of Chinese goods. But as more jobs are lost to China, unemployment will soar and even cheap Chinese goods will become luxuries to Americans, especially since high transportation costs will raise the prices of those goods. Thanks to the naked greed of Wall Street, the U.S. economy is circling the drain, and once it collapses, a major part of China's income evaporates. When that happens, China will start calling in loans, resulting in more economic collapse. The Sino-American Ponzi scheme will soon come crashing down and the results will be ugly.

Actually, the Chinese are shifting from an export based economy, to an internal consumption based one. A lot of their growth the past couple of years is from internal demand for goods and services. So, sure their exports may take a small hit, but their internal consumption will take up any slack.

• China has three major economic rivals who would be very happy to throw sand into her economic machinery. Russia, Japan, and the European Union are very wary of China's growing economic might, especially when it comes with a nuclear arsenal and a weapon's trade that is making lots of money peddling weapons to hot spots around the world (especially when those weapons are cheaper than the ones peddled by Russia, Japan and the E.U.) While certainly dependent on China's cheap goods themselves, they have avoided the mutual suicide pact that the U.S. and China entered into. While things could be very bad in the short term economically for these players, a future world with the U.S. and China economically neutered is VERY appealing to them.

While I don't doubt your analysis that they want to bring down China, there's a huge gap in wishing it to happen, and the ability to effect it. Japan will sink with the U.S., Russia's crashing demographics prevent anything happening, and the EU, doesn't have the "stick", only the carrot. There's no way Europe could compete with China. That's why I think China is assured #1 status for a long time to come.

[Zynx]

46. Between exports and FDI, China is completely reliant on foreign trade.

Additionally, their economy is increasingly petroleum based with the fastest increases in petroleum consumption among major countries. Further, their domestic consumption boom has largely been on the backs of a credit system far more broken than ours. Look up any reports on the Chinese banking system. It is a very distinct possibility that China's various inconsistencies in its rapid expansion will come home to roost in a similar fashion to what happened in Brazil after the Brazilian Miracle in the late 1960s and 1970s where they experienced consistent 8-12% growth as well.

[Kelvin Mace]

47. back at ya:

China generates most of it's electricity through coal and hydro. It's starting to convert over to wind and solar.

Which does nothing to pay for the oil needed for pesticides, fertilizers, plastics, drugs, tractors, trucks, aircraft and shipping. The vast majority of oil consumed in the world doesn't involve energy production.

So what? They have the cash to purchase food just like every other nation out there. I'm sure England, Japan, etc aren't self sufficient in food either. The U.S. imports large quantities of food as well.

Once the U.S. economy starts it's death spiral, the world economy is looking at a depression. This will seriously deplete China's spending money. Add to that the money being siphoned off by corruption and you have a serious food problem on your hands.

Add to this the very real possibility that the U.S. could default on its loans (yes, our economic situation is now that bad), and China's position becomes dire.

Other countries MIGHT have extra food to sell, but it will be EXPENSIVE and only be for sale for hard currency or resources.

Oh, then there is climate change and the droughts and floods that will cause.

The majority of their air pollution blows out over Japan, Korea, and eventually the U.S.

Some does, but people still have to breath while the pollution drifts across the country. Also, the masses of toxic chemicals and heavy metals going into the soil and water are NOT moving to Japan, Korea, or anywhere else outside China's borders.

People have been saying such things about other governments since Jesus was a baby. As long as their basic needs are met, people generally don't want to "rock the boat" See Cuba for an example.

Except for the fact that China is now starting to fail on that front. Pensions are not keeping up with inflation, medical care is being cut, and housing is getting hard to come by.

Actually, the Chinese are shifting from an export based economy, to an internal consumption based one. A lot of their growth the past couple of years is from internal demand for goods and services. So, sure their exports may take a small hit, but their internal consumption will take up any slack.

Except that internal consumption doesn't produce hard currency, which is needed to buy many of the items China can't produce itself, such as food, oil, iron, aluminum, uranium, precision machinery and lots more.

While I don't doubt your analysis that they want to bring down China, there's a huge gap in wishing it to happen, and the ability to effect it. Japan will sink with the U.S., Russia's crashing demographics prevent anything happening, and the EU, doesn't have the "stick", only the carrot. There's no way Europe could compete with China. That's why I think China is assured #1 status for a long time to come.

As oil makes transportation and manufacturing costs climb, China's products become more expensive. As it has to realistically start dealing with pollution, the costs climb further. As the world economy deteriorates, Russia and the E.U. discover that it is more in their interest to bring manufacturing back "in-house" and to protect it with tariffs. Russia and the E.U. have greater communal interest to trade with each other than with China. As China's fortunes decline, theirs improve. Japan can use China for raw materials, but will have hard currency and high tech to barter with. Again, a weak China is in Japan's interest. Japan has dominated that region of the world for the last 200 years by craftily playing various groups (Koreans, Chinese, Thais, Laotians, Vietnamese, etc) off each other.

All the players have the motive, the opportunity and the resources to impede China's growth.

[muriel_volestrangler]

49. If you think the US economy will go into a 'death spiral', that will make it easier for China

to become the largest. China would just have to go into 'not so much of a death spiral'. If you think the US economy will fail, and you don't think China will have the largest economy in the world by 2035, what country do you think will? Japan, with a population perhaps one third of the US, and under a tenth of China? Russia, also with a population less than a tenth of China's? Germany, with an even smaller population?

[Kelvin Mace]

50. Not with China joining it in a death spiral

The E.U. will likely be the largest economy in 2035.

[muriel_volestrangler]

51. I don't think they count the EU as one economy

If you do, then it's already the largest in the world. But I think you look on China as tied to the US; it does have a lot of relations with the rest of the world too.

[Kelvin Mace]

56. The IMF, the CIA Fact Book

and the World Bank count the E.U. as one economy (which is appropriate since they all use th same currency). The IMF and CIA list the E.U. as the #1 economy at $16 trillion in 2007 (U.S. $13 trillion). The World bank calls it the "Euro Zone" and puts it at #2 with $12 trillion..

Chinese exports to the U.S. were $321 billion in 2007 (according to the U.S. foreign trade statistic) China's GDP was $3.2 trillion, which means the U.S. was consuming 10% of China's total output. This doesn't sound impressive until you put it in this context: China's total exports for 2007 was $1.2 trillion, so the U.S., by itself was buying about 25% of China's total exports.

http://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html

In the last 10 years, China's imports have risen from $140 billion to $956 billion (exports to the U.S. in 1998 were $71 billion). In ten years exports to the U.S. grew about 350%, but imports from the world at large rose about 700%. China is importing more and more, even as its exports grow.

China's #2 customer? Japan, with $230 billion. Russia buys $48 billion, and the EU around $160 billion. All together, The U.S., E.U., Russia and Japan buy 70-75% of China's products. The disintegration of U.S. economy, and the shock waves that will follow affecting these key economies will have disastrous effects on China.

And, I overlooked India as an economic competitor who would do well if China stumbled. India buys about $24 billion a year from China.

No matter how you look at it, China's immediate economic future does not look very good at all.

[muriel_volestrangler]

59. Saying China is going to fail, because everyone they trade with will fail,

is not going to help your argument that one of those other economies will become bigger than China's. The EU does not use just one currency - that's the Euro Zone, and that's why the different terms appear in different places in lists (and, hey, the World tops the CIA list - but it's an entity made up from several countries, and so it doesn't count in the lists of "the biggest economy", either now, or in 2035 - and neither does the EU. That's obvious, otherwise the economist would have compared China to the EU, and ignored the USA since that would have already been in 2nd place).

Your only chance to say that some country will have a larger economy than China is to say its internal economy will be larger (tricky, though you can try to put a case for India doing it, since their adult population will overtake China's around then - but they're coming from further behind than China in terms of current GDP), or that another country will out-trade China - and, apart from India, you seem to think all the major trading economies are going to crash. The more that you predict world trade is going to crash, the more likely that the largest country in terms of population is going to end up the largest economy.

[Kelvin Mace]

61. Uh, that is not my ONLY argument

I have a half a dozen reasons in the OP that China's is not going to be the dominant economy, not just its "deadly embrace" with the US economy. It's growth is not sustainable do to dwindling oil supplies, rising pollution, rising political/social discontent and external rivals.

[demo dutch]

58. Actually many experts believe that Europe and Central Asia will be the

next global power house, they are already working together in the development of renewable energy technologies. China, Korea. Thailand etc. will tab into that.
Here in the US, we are just living in the dark ages !

http://ree08.events.pennnet.com/fl//content.cfm?NavId=6692&Language=Engl

[muriel_volestrangler]

60. Again, 'Europe' and 'Central Asia' aren't economies

If you admit those categories, then 'Asia' will clearly have the largest economy.

[psychopomp]

42. A container costs three times as much to ship to the US as a year ago

China's export economy based on shipping bulk is going to continue to pile up losses, which could cause the economy to falter as the price of oil becomes too dear.

[Doctor_J]

28. Whew. I will be dirt surfing by then

I'll write a note of apology to my descendants for letting Bush, Murdoch, and Limpballs turn the US into a 3rd world nation.

[hogwyld]

29. I'll be in those golden years

of universal healthcare, and a well funded social security safety net. :sarcasm:

[skoalyman]

48. lol I will too be in those golden shower years

:P

[independentpiney]

30. 300 years of being overpowered by western civilization

is just a blip in the thousands of years of China's status as one of, if not the wealthiest and most powerful of nations.

[BadGimp]

37. It won't take nearly that long..

At the rate the US economy is going I'd bet 2025 or sooner.

I love this country and will always love her but the damage being done to her is inescapable.

[cat1985]

52. Not suprising

These estimates aren't suprising to me, if anything i would have estimated China's economy to surpass that of the US sooner!

[LanternWaste]

55. Powers rise, powers fall...

As it happened to the Hapsburg, Spanish, French, and finally the British Empires, our financial and military world dominance will also fade. And, as did the other powers, we will adapt to it.

History has a fascinating way of humbling both countries and people.