Analysts Say More Banks Will Fail

[paparush]

Source: New York Times

As home prices continue to decline and loan defaults mount, federal regulators are bracing for dozens of American banks to fail over the next year.

But after a large mortgage lender in California collapsed late Friday, Wall Street analysts began posing two crucial questions: Just how many banks might falter? And, more urgently, which one could be next?

The nation’s banks are in far less danger than they were in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when more than 1,000 federally insured institutions went under during the savings-and-loan crisis. The debacle, the greatest collapse of American financial institutions since the Depression, prompted a government bailout that cost taxpayers about $125 billion.

But the troubles are growing so rapidly at some small and midsize banks that as many as 150 out of the 7,500 banks nationwide could fail over the next 12 to 18 months, analysts say. Other lenders are likely to shut branches or seek mergers.

“Everybody is drawing up lists, trying to figure out who the next bank is, No. 1, and No. 2, how many of them are there,” said Richard X. Bove, the banking analyst with Ladenburg Thalmann, who released a list of troubled banks over the weekend. “And No. 3, from the standpoint of Washington, how badly is it going to affect the economy?”

Many investors are on edge after federal regulators seized the California lender, IndyMac Bank, one of the nation’s largest savings and loans, last week. With $32 billion in assets, IndyMac, a spinoff of the Countrywide Financial Corporation, was the biggest American lender to fail in more than two decades.

Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105391/Analysts-Say-More-Banks-Will-Fail

---

And with the Fed saying they will not bail out any more private banks....

[hatrack]

1. Duh.

nt

[Bennyboy]

2. What a bunch of whiners......

It is all in your minds....It is all in your minds...it is all in your minds......

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[closeupready]

4. I think they are lying - the big banks will be bailed out, maybe not the smaller ones.

Go figure - only if you cost a lot of money to save you will the fed step in. :eyes:

[villager]

5. Analysts Say More Banks Will Fail

Source: NY Times

Analysts Say More Banks Will Fail
by Louise Story

As home prices continue to decline and loan defaults mount, federal regulators are bracing for dozens of American banks to fail over the next year.

But after a large mortgage lender in California collapsed late Friday, Wall Street analysts began posing two crucial questions: Just how many banks might falter? And, more urgently, which one could be next?

The nation’s banks are in far less danger than they were in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when more than 1,000 federally insured institutions went under during the savings-and-loan crisis. The debacle, the greatest collapse of American financial institutions since the Depression, prompted a government bailout that cost taxpayers about $125 billion.

But the troubles are growing so rapidly at some small and midsize banks that as many as 150 out of the 7,500 banks nationwide could fail over the next 12 to 18 months, analysts say. Other lenders are likely to shut branches or seek mergers. “Everybody is drawing up lists, trying to figure out who the next bank is, No. 1, and No. 2, how many of them are there,” said Richard X. Bove, the banking analyst with Ladenburg Thalmann, who released a list of troubled banks over the weekend. “And No. 3, from the standpoint of Washington, how badly is it going to affect the economy?”

Many investors are on edge after federal regulators seized the California lender, IndyMac Bank, one of the nation’s largest savings and loans, last week. With $32 billion in assets, IndyMac, a spinoff of the Countrywide Financial Corporation, was the biggest American lender to fail in more than two decades.

Now, as the Bush administration grapples with the crisis at the nation’s two largest mortgage finance companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a rush of earnings reports in the coming days and weeks from some of the nation’s largest financial companies are likely to provide more gloomy reminders about the sorry state of the industry.

<snip>


Read more: http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105391/Analysts-Say-More-Banks-Will-Fail

[MannyGoldstein]

6. Yeah - BUT HAVE YOU SEEN THE NEW YORKER COVER!!! n/t

[villager]

7. oh, right! Never mind!

n/t

[MannyGoldstein]

8. Economic Implosion Is Bad - But Satire Is Far, Far Worse

Honestly, nobody seems to give a rat's ass about the implosion except for you, me, and a handful of others. I think we're doomed.

[villager]

9. I think it's so overwhelming, people are trying to hold on 'til November

..at which point, there's an expectation that the psychic cloud of doom will lift, as spirits raise.

Thus, the NYer cover -- a mere bagatelle in the scheme of things -- looms large, because it seems to threaten (presumably) the lifting of that cloud -- which is the
main "strategy" most of us have.

(I'd like to've reduced my debt load, but a divorce did that in; and the veggies are coming in slow in the backyard... arrgh!)

[Jefferson23]

10. No, I am deeply worried too.

It seems like the domino fell and there is no stopping it. I hope I am wrong.

[fascisthunter]

28. Oh no.... That would be me too

although I say very little on these threads and just watch.

[Hugabear]

18. We're on the brink of a Depression, and people are obsessed over a fucking cartoon

Gotta love this country, don't you?

If it weren't the New Yorker cover, it would be Bradgelina's new babies.

[michaz]

19. I do believe that we are capable of being concerned with more than just one thing at a time.

It appears to me that people are concerned with the economy but are also concerned with garbage on the front covers of magazines.

[Frank Booth]

11. It's getting to the point where there's no safe place to keep your money in this country.

The stock market's plummeting, I don't see any good news on the horizon that'll keep it from falling below 10,000, and even 8,000 or 7,000 is a real possibility.

Bonds and savings accounts aren't keeping up with inflation, and we also have to worry about these institutions going under.

I had money in Indymac. I'm hoping "FDIC insured" really means I'll get it all back.

[AlienGirl]

14. In a coffee can, buried in the backyard?

[femrap]

16. Maybe it's best to use the money

for something that will enable us to survive...land that we can grow food and raise chickens and a variety of tools that can help us build shelter...with solar panels and geothermal and our own water wells.

That would be better to have than some useless green paper.

I hate what these rich, white, sons of the devil have done to this country...may they be forced to eat that damn green paper.

[Demeter]

12. Reality Is Our Only Defense Against PNAC and Bushbots and Darth and Greenscam and the Rest

[gratuitous]

13. Well, if you're going to concentrate on the failures . . .

Of course things are going to look bad. But how many banks didn't fail over the weekend? Arrest my case! The economy is strong. And sound. And, and, and, uh, robust!

Let's try another round of tax cuts for the overrich, and see if that changes anything. If it doesn't, oh well. At least Dick Cheney will get another $175,000 this year he doesn't need and can't spend. So we'd have that going for us.

[Liberty Belle]

15. Warnings! "Guarantees" are per each BANK, not each ACCOUNT.

My Mom had multiple accounts at the failed bank. Unfortuantely the amount she thought each account was guaranteed for is in fact a total for all accounts together.

[raebrek]

20. This explains how FDIC insurance works.

http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/insuringdeposits/

Your banker is also more then able to explain how much of your deposits are insured and how to deposit your money to
insure that you get the most insurance coverage.

Quick and dirty as I understand single or an account that is in your name only. All of your single accounts in one bank are insured up to $100,000 in total. If you go to an other bank (that is bank not a different branch of the same bank) and open up some single accounts they are also insured up to $100,000 in total.

Joint accounts are insured up to $100,000 per person. So if you and your significant other have a joint account with $200,000 in it you can rest assured that it is insured up to $200,000. So if you have single and joint accounts at the same bank you know that you are insured up to 100k for your singe and 100k for your joint account and the other joint account holder with you will also be insured up to 100k.

Raebrek!!!

I bet a banker could explain it far better then I could.

[senseandsensibility]

25. Thanks for the info!

The website is very helpful too.

[Paula Sims]

30. You did an excellent job (better than a lot of bankers)

and frankly, most bankers have no clue about FDIC insurance or its nuances. The $200k per family/joint account has a lot of nuances and the FDIC can change their interpretation of the rules and have your money locked up for years. Frankly, it's better just to keep under 100K (like 90k) per bank total and one "shouldn't" have any issues.

The other issue is it depends on the type of "bank" (technically knows as depository institution). A lot of Credit Unions have opted out of FDIC coverage and have gone for local State Coverage. Mine did and I pulled ALL money out(including incurring CD penalties) -- although I was only about 15 during the S&L mess in Ohio & Texas, that's how it started.

It also depends on the regulator. Depending on the charter of the financial institution, the regulators could be FDIC, state, OTS, OCC, Fed, NCUA, or whatever. Like any company, the examiners employed by those regulators vary -- I personally know some that are very good and are stuck in their jobs and some that are horrible and will probably be promoted to management. :7

Too many variables, and frankly, I'm a bit worried. Not for "small" amounts of less than 100k, but for the bigger amounts (and yes, there are some out there that have those amounts). Right now, I'm personally going CD's and fixed investments in my 401K and keeping it that way for years.

[raebrek]

34. Thank you.

I work for a bank. We do regular training many topics including FDIC insurance coverage. That is why I know our folks can tell you what will and won't be covered. I don't call myself a banker because I am the Network Admin but even I do that training. So I guess I learned something.

Raebrek!!!

[DailyGrind51]

17. I swear, the next Miltonian moron or Randian retard who gives

me that "free-market" crap again is going to need emergency dental care!:mad: Let business do what it wants and THIS is what we get! "laissez fair" must mean license to fuck up , big time!

[paparush]

22. Yep. "Free Market" boils down to -

Free of oversight.
Free of regulation.
Free of accountability.
Free of taxation.
Free of competition.

[Wednesdays]

21. K&R

:kick:

[Lucky 13]

23. People! Don't you understand this is just a MENTAL failure.

The banks aren't REALLY in trouble. It's all in your head! Calm down! No need to panic!

This message brought to you by John McCain for President.

[depakid]

26. Actually, with bank runs there is a mental component

[aspergris]

24. lol ANALYSTS

These idiots were not saying the banks would fail last summer, when they were WAY up from here

They were not issuing sell rec's on WM, etc.

NOW that the market HAS sold off, they enter with the sell rec's. Classic after the fact idiocy

Any decent trader worth their salt knows analysts are pure reaction and idiocy.

If Analysts really understood the market, they would make money off their predictions as TRADERS not as paid mouthpieces.


Not the analysts were similarly moronic during the tech bubble.

Blood on the Streets and all that

[Renew Deal]

27. ABC is naming some names

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5374205&page=1

[truthisfreedom]

31. Here they are:

The indicated number is the “Texas-ratio”

Colorado Federal Savings Bank
Greenwood Village
CO
244.8
Eastern Savings Bank, FSB
Hunt Valley
MD
222.7
Integrity Bank
Alpharetta
GA
191.6
Ameribank, Inc.
Welch
WV
153.7
First Priority Bank
Bradenton
FL
122.6
First Security National Bank
Norcross
GA
112.1
Magnet Bank
Salt Lake City
UT
110.4
Security Pacific Bank
Los Angeles
CA
102.8
First National Bank of Brookfield
Brookfield
IL
102.1
The State Bank of Lebo
Lebo
KS
100.6
Source: Research Associates of America

[fascisthunter]

29. "90 troubled banks,"

Who's Next? List of Troubled Banks Worries Wall Street, DC

http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=5374205&page=1

[truthisfreedom]

32. Just how much money is squirreled away at the FDIC? How much damage can they absorb?

Or is that just a big sham as well?

[Megahurtz]

33. Yikes! n/t