Poll shows no convention bounce for Obama

[NeoConsSuck]

Source: CNN.COM

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night shows the Obama-Biden ticket leading the McCain-Palin ticket by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, with the statistical margin of error.

The survey was conducted Friday through Sunday, after both the conclusion of the Democratic convention and Sen. John McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.

A previous CNN poll, taken just one week earlier, suggested the race between McCain, R-Arizona, and Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, was tied at 47 percent each.

"The convention and particularly Obama's speech seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate, also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces assuming that either one created a bounce at all," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.



Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/31/obama.mccain.poll/index.html

[fujiyama]

1. This race will be undoubtably close

but I can't help but believing or hoping that McCain's numbers will go down as it's known Palin is so clueless on so many national affairs.

[DiverDave]

2. Oh, BS

How many people watched the Obama speech?
38 MILLION?
Hard to imagine that that wouldn't have swayed some fence sitters.
Of course, I think that most people have made up their minds about who they are going to be voting for.
Also, the Bob Barr and Ralph Nader factor is not being discussed in the MSM and I do think that, come election day, that both of them will impact the final outcome.

[izzie]

5. I sure hope you are right.

We have had to many years of this crazy Bush family. I swear those 'royal' families just breed them self into being second rate. McCain is the same type. Father that he could not live up to but got him to third base before every one else. I am telling you that the low man at that military college would never end up on fighters unless he knew some one. Same with Bush and his Nat.Guard. You can bet some one missed out on Yale, fighters etc. because these men had the right father.

[DiverDave]

11. You know the old saying,

Money talks...
It even happened to a friend of mine in H.S.
He was a brilliant football player, fast, off the state record in the 220 by a couple of tenth's fast.
Couldn't play, as the junior high school principle and a wealthy business owners sons were playing that year.
His dad wrote a LTTE and they wouldn't even print it.
Small town politics.
I'm convinced that he could have played at the college level, and gotten his degree, if he could have shown off his skill.

He's doing O.K., but nowhere near what he could have done if he could have went to college.

[Raster]

17. Our society today is rife with examples of men who are less-than-stellar,

but have the right family connections and these arrangements are almost always to the detriment of the social structure. george w. bush* is a FINE EXAMPLE. His grades and past legal history should have precluded him from lucrative positions in educational opportunities and the Texas Air National Guard. And yet another unmistakable example is John McSame. Without a father and grandfather as Admirals, he would NEVER have had the military opportunities and thus today's political opportunities.

Wake Up, America!:kick:

[zeemike]

19. I know exactly what you mean

A friend of mines son played little league baseball and he was really good at it. He pitched and played first base... the first time he pitched a game he struck out 6 kids in 3 innings and he had the best batting average in the league, as well as making great plays at first base...I went ot every game he played because I was sure he was a cinch for the all star game.
Never hoappened...the son of a banker made the team who was basically s clutz...the son of my friend never played baseball again.
What a shame on us that we allow money special privileges and put down real talent for their sake.

[Frances]

31. I have to pat myself on the back

My husband and his friend coached a girls' softball team. The other father wanted to put his daughter on the all-star team. I was shocked and said that shouldn't happen because the daughter wasn't the best player. My husband went along with my opinion and the daughter wasn't on the all-star team.

This young woman had a sister who was an excellent piano player. When the tryouts for pianist for the school jazz band were held, she won that spot, which had been held by my daughter. I had to accept that the better pianist had gotten the spot. It hurt a lot that my daughter was replaced, but it was the right decision.

[zeemike]

37. That is because you have integrity

Something that seems to be missing in a lot of people with power and money.

[Frances]

38. Thanks for the compliment

When my father died, his boss said that my father had integrity. I hope I live up to him.

[zeemike]

39. Integrity should be thanked and celebrated, n/t

[marshall]

25. And with no RNC convention they sure won't get a bounce!

Thank you, Michael Moore!

[bemildred]

29. Ditto that.

This mainly leads me to question the usefulness of CNN polling.

[izzie]

3. I can believe it.

I still say that I bet McCain wins. The people have not had enough of Bushes that vote in this way: as their family have always voted, will vote skin color, love the military, and in general think just like the GOP that govt. is the problem. Axioms would say that a country that has grown 100 million since I was born should have a bigger govt. to make things work but common sense does not always work with people.

[maseman]

32. I think you are right

I can also sum up that people do not vote in their own best interests.

[Heddi]

4. Poll shows Americans are Idiots

video at 11

[rustedart]

6. cell phone only households being missed?

"The CNN/Opinion Research Corp. Poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, with 927 registered voters questioned by telephone."

My partner and myself are a cell phone only household. As are many of my friends who will vote in the Nov election. But we are not being polled. I have only read little regarding this notion. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[CJCRANE]

7. But another poll showed an 8 point bounce.

Whats going on?

:shrug:

[niceypoo]

27. He went from dead even to 6-8 points ahead in most polls

MSM shilling as usual

[HubertHeaver]

8. How do they choose their polling universe and individual respondents?

Is this a poll taken by telephone? If so, are they polling predominantly republican prefixes? In 1936 Gallop had Alf Landon winning over FDR in a landslide based on the results of a poll or polls taken by telephone. Of course, in 1936 the terms "telephone" and "democrat" were mutually exclusive resulting in a skewed poll. Similarly in 1948, the infamous "Dewey Defeats Truman" headline was based partly on "man in the street" polls--that is, live pollsters stopping random people in the street and asking questions. In both of these examples to polls were embarrassingly wrong.

My hope is that something similar is operating this time around such as the 18 to 33 group is under-represented due to their not having a land-line phone.

[Doug.Goodall]

9. This is another 'Put Up Job' to make the election look closer than it really is

These polls are by and for the Main Stream Media. The MSM has a steak in keeping the election close in order to keep people tuned in to their news shows.

Do the math:

More people watching the news = Higher price for advertising time

Closer the election looks = More people watching the news

By substitution and transformation:

Close poll numbers = More money in the pockets of the MSM

I do not believe the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll, and neither should you.

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[panzerfaust]

12. Polls Prove Palin Pick Brilliant

Recall that (many of us believe) McSame does not have to win the election. He must only get a large enough percentage that it can be stolen for him without an unbelievable degree of implausibility in the outcome.

Before she was picked for him, it was clear that (in spite of the what their skewed polls were showing) that he would lose, and lose big - say 60:40 which makes only a Russian or Zimbabwean style election victory possible.

America is not ... not quite yet ... ready to accept such a result.

Thus the choice for VP of someone who completely roils the waters, who makes any outcome semi-believable, makes the, still necessary, theft of the election semi-plausible.

Plausible enough to get away with.

Again.

Brilliant.

[depakid]

13. The network of Glen Beck and Nancy Grace

A bunch of us have programmed them off our TV's -along with Fox and the spam channels. That way, we don't even accidently start watching the sorry programming for some reason or another.

[robcon]

14. This will go down to the wire.

The campaign begins on Labor Day - as it always does.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

20. No, it won't. These polls are cobbled together with a distorted sample.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

15. According to my unofficial poll, Obama got a huge bounce

That poll involving my 90 year old mother, a Republican, who watched and was terribly impressed with Obama and is positions. She thinks McCain is clueless and is horrified by his choice of Palin for VP (Mom was for Margaret Chase Smith when that Senator ran for President back in the '60s).

I don't think we necessarily need to believe these polls. But it is good they show a close race, as that keeps our side motivated and not complacent.

[secondwind]

16. Do not despair!

Let's not forget  that lots of polling takes place during the
day, when  the older  folks  are home,etc.........DO NOT 
UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF THE YOUNG VOTE!  The  young voters
-- Obama's army -- are NOT pollable, they are running  around,
with their cell phones,etc.

We WILL win!!

[Aviation Pro]

18. The emergence of the Internet as a political force....

...will render the use of landline telephone polls obsolete after this election.

[Teaser]

21. Actually this poll shows a 2 point bounce

small, yes, but it is evidence that, once again, the media does not unerstand what "margin of error" means.

Dumbass reporters.

[Zero Division]

22. That's "a poll", not "polls".

CNN is making its own news rather than reporting it. The general trend among multiple polls is always more convincing than a single poll.

[DrZeeLit]

23. Read Frank Rich about why these t.v. polls are so wrong. Sunday, Aug 31, NYT.

[kmac3]

24. Accurate or planned strategy . . . .

Don't let all forget that it is critical to keep all Americans thinking that the race is close in order to win by corrupt activity of the voting machines. Remember 2004 . . . multiple wins turned out 49/51 percent!

[eowyn_of_rohan]

26. LIES, LIES, LIES

:grr: :puke: :eyes: :argh: :scared: :cry:

[bobd0]

28. IMO, there won't be any significant bounce or drop for either candidate, barring a huge blunder

And speaking of huge blunders, if choosing an un-vetted fundie wacko like Palin isn't a big enough blunder to force a drop in the polls, and if Obama's incredible speech wasn't enough to provide a bounce, then IMO, voters are waiting this one out right up to Election Day.

There is something very weird going on this year (when isn't there?) but the atmosphere around this election isn't like any in memory. I wonder why? It's an historic election because it's the first time in history a non-white male has won nomination by a major political party, and, no matter how hard McCain and the Republicans try to run away from it, it's also a referendum on the past eight miserable years under Bush/Cheney/Republican rule.

I believe voters' are aware and know for a fact that Bush and the Republicans have led this country to ruin and McCain is definitely four more years of the same or worse, but voters' fear of electing someone who isn't white, and the inherent racism that choice involves, is keeping them, other than partisans who will vote party no matter the nominee, on the fence.

They're waiting to see if anyone screws up bad enough to make up their minds for them, and if Obama should screw up badly enough that will negate the charge of racism. If McCain screws up they have an excuse for voting for a non-white president for the first time in history. As you may have noticed, McCain is going to have to screw up BIG TIME to tip the polls. Maybe that's why the Obama campaign is being cautious. They're held to a much lower screw-up standard.

Either way, I don't see the polls moving significantly before election day unless someone screws-up very badly and since McCain already has it appears he has a definite screw-up advantage. If we get to Election Day and the polls are still close I'm hoping Democrats will show up at the polls in sufficient numbers to counter any chances of another stolen election.

After eight years of Bush/Cheney you'd think this would be a Democratic landslide. What the hell are Americans thinking?

[Bonobo]

30. Lies and the lying liars who tell them. nt

[NOW tense]

33. Enough!

I am tired of seeing these polls. 38 million viewers and Obama is raking in cash and it is only 1 percentage point?

[CreekDog]

34. Well Obama did everything right

[Ediacara]

35. Funny that all the other polls show a significant bounce for Obama

[melody]

36. All the other polls show a major bounce for Obama

Real polls, I mean. And this one even shows a 2 pt bounce.

Al Gore was so right -- the MSM is out to get Obama.

[amuse bouche]

40. Will be a close race