Gallup: Obama now at 50% for the first time

[RedSpartan]

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30 through Sept. 1, finds Barack Obama leading the race for president with his highest share of support to date. Fully half of national registered voters now favor Obama for president, while 42% back John McCain.



Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/109960/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Hits-50-First-Time.aspx

---

Note that this poll was taken over the course of three days after McCain announced his VP pick. Palin bounce? I think not.

[orestes]

1. Oh, there was a Palin bounce

the bounce apparently was for Obama, though

[Jack Rabbit]

6. I agree

That it what this is. McCain's slide isn't over yet.

[offog]

72. Sure hope you're right!

The prospect of a McCain and/or Palin presidency scares the hell out of me. I see more power grabbing for the Executive branch, and another war. (Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran.)

[krkaufman]

78. I see someone who believes in The Rapture holding the nuclear launch codes. nt

[True_Blue]

84. That is one one my greatest fears!

[kittycat1164]

21. Palin's bounce

reminds me of the basketballs bounce when The Heat visited the WH in 2006.

[niceypoo]

39. "Barack Obama gets Bounce from GOP convention!"

Ultimate headline!!

[wryter2000]

56. LOL

I love it!

[Pete2069]

48. After McSame's convention

They will claim it is even again...  Face it this election is
fixed, because Bush and the republicans are still creating
dictatorial powers for the office of presidency.

They would never ever;  even if it took a declaration of
marshall law, let a democrat win the office of presidency ,
with the powers Bush and Cheney have given themselves.

If you remember they try to take powers away from Clinton.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

71. McDeadCat.

[kestrel91316]

2. And the MSM hasn't even latched onto the real red meat yet:

Sarah "Mrs. Mooseburger" Palin is an agent of the Alaskan Independence Party and probably unable to obtain a high level security clearance because of it.

AIP is as bad as the Communist Party when it comes to national security clearances.

[louis-t]

4. I do not believe she will make it to election time.

[niceypoo]

41. If McCain throws her under the bus...

...it kills his image, if he keeps her, it kills his image. Either way it is a win, win for us!

[JerseygirlCT]

81. Yup. To all of those in the GOP screaming

"discrimination" every time someone has something negative to say about her... just what will their reaction be when McCain dumps her?

My guess: "Well, she's just such a dedicated mother that she realized her family must come first".

[wryter2000]

57. Hartmann gives her 24 hours

Of course, he did that yesterday, too.

Momma keeps saying, "We'd better make fun of her now because she could be gone before the show ends."

That would be awesome. <-- said in my best impression of Chris LaVoie.

[Jack Rabbit]

7. How do you know this?

I'm not challenging your assertion, but I'd like to know where it is grounded.

[YDogg]

19. I am also curious about this.

[pimpbot]

45. Hes talking about Question 30

On the questionaire you have to fill out for a security clearance:

http://www.opm.gov/Forms/pdf_fill/sf86.pdf

[krkaufman]

80. I don't see it. The questionaire focuses on "overthrow"...

... not the secession-by-vote approach of the AIP.

[calimary]

42. Mrs. Mooseburger! kestrel91316 - SCORES!!!

I'm keeping a collection of these, wherever I find them.

They'll make me laugh on bad days.

I LOVE DU!!!!!

[Rocky2007]

63. Spot on

And neither will her husband who will be sitting next to her in her office :wtf:

[Grateful for Hope]

3. The irony is wonderful

Go Obama!

[hasssan1]

5. And Yahoo Headline is Saying that the bounce was small and nothing !!!!!

David Paul Kuhn
Mon Sep 1, 10:38 PM ET



Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and it's gradually depreciating.



The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That's a slightly smaller uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic convention, according to Gallup.

That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000 people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul, and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.

Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general election. But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned may have already peaked.

On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points. By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage point since Saturday.

CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40 percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than Obama.

But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate, the opening of the Republican convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.

There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will not be known for days.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll, both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no statistically significant convention bounce.

Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in the presidential race.

[Jack Rabbit]

8. Is that an AP writer?

I would be very disturbed to see AP turn into FoxNews in print, but that's the way it seems to be going.

[bookman]

12. Yes...it is going that way.

In fact I thought I heard that Murdoch was trying to buy AP.

[calimary]

43. It's a cooperative, not a corporation that you can buy or sell or loot.

But murdoch's on their board of directors, unfortunately.

[bookman]

85. Thanks.

Maybe that's what I was thinking about.

[samsingh]

36. AP is now faux news in print

[llmart]

24. I saw that too....

when I logged into my yahoo email. Bunch of crapola.

[Wetzelbill]

31. That analysis makes little sense

It was tied 45-45, then now Obama is up by 8 points, but there was little to no bounce, because historically Dems got at least 5-6 points. Those other polls cited do little to assuage his point. Weird.

[wryter2000]

58. Great minds

I posted the same thing below. That headline had my head shaking.

[AzDar]

9. W00t!

:woohoo:

GObama!

[Plucketeer]

10. It seems only fitting that....

...McCain/Palin's numbers should match Bush/Cheney's current figures! After all, McCain had to vett like hell to find someone of equivalent worth to Dastardly Dick!

[BenHoffman]

11. McCain campaign is self-destructing

I used to like McCain. I'm not sure if this is the real McCain coming out or if he just succumbed to the tactics of the far right. Either way, he's bad for America.

[scytherius]

22. Same

When he was hammering on Bush in 2000 I was a McCain fan actually. Wonder where that McCain went.

[Wetzelbill]

32. he's always been a rat

The only time he kind of wasn't was when he went out of his way to rehab his image after Keating 5.

[calimary]

44. Welcome to DU, BenHoffman!

I think many of us here might have liked mcsame, too, once. ONCE.

Many of us were sympathetic to him after 2000 - because he was just another victim of bush/cheney/rove, and we felt for him - especially with his wife and adopted daughter nearly flayed alive by bush/cheney/rove operatives and dirty tricksters in South Carolina. But I also remember the flabby, weenie-ish, almost non-existent fight he put up to defend their honor, or express outrage at what was done to him. I was really turned off to him after that, and I've stayed that way ever since.

[Mark E. Smith]

13. Kick

Great news

[tosh]

14. Great news indeed.

We've got to maintain this momentum, break the polls wide open.

[Deliphus]

15. Palin bounce

> Palin bounce? I think not.

There IS a Palin bounce...it's a DOWNWARD bounce.

And I'm lovin' it.

[WatchWhatISay]

16. Surely this ticket will lose more Republicans than it will gain in illusory Hillary-McCain devotees

I too am one who feels that she will not last until November

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[dkofos]

18. That's code for 75%

[eowyn_of_rohan]

33. my thoughts exactly

[BanTheGOP]

20. KEEP ON POUNDING PALIN!!

The problems that Palin bring to the ticket is a GAIASEND to our side! A pregnant, unmarried daughter in a "family values" candidate has essentially wrecked the chances that the republicans can "FAIRLY" win this election. We should now have enough votes to withstand the campaign the repukes will embark on to steal the election.

Keep on pounding Palin, ESPECIALLY her stance on family values.

[HopeHoops]

53. I'm sure John had that in mind - watch out Cindy!

[Auggie]

23. Is it "Light At The End Of The Tunnel Time?"

[Kitty Herder]

25. Hey! That's great news!! I desperately needed some good news today.

Thanks for bringing that to my attention.

[Dead Elephant]

26. The countdown begins for when Palin is forced out of the VP position

The Republicans are done.
Stop the Drama Vote Obama

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=330266306995&_trksid=p3907.m32&_trkparms=tab%3DSelling

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

27. And they have Bush speaking tonight!

What a glorious trainwreck!!!!
BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!!!!!!!

[Geek_Girl]

77. Yep Obama will probably get another bounce from that

nt

[coldie6]

28. The Moose is on the loose

Or so it seems....

[wryter2000]

60. Welcome to DU

:hi:

[nam78_two]

29. Very nice!

There is a Palin bounce-just not for McLame ;). I am starting to like her....

[Mugsy]

30. This election is SO over.

I've never seen a Party as such disarray as the GOP is right now.

The likelihood is that Palin will decline the nomination tomorrow, and I believe there is even a possibility of a panic-stricken revolt in the GOP of following such an unpredictable and reckless nominee as McCain might urge some to contest McCain's nomination as well.

It may not happen, but the fact it's even a possibility speaks volumes.

This race is SO over.

[harun]

35. Too bad the vote isn't right now, we could get this over with (n/t)

[beac]

34. For the first time, but definitely not for the LAST!!

Convention :bounce: + Disastsarah :bounce: = :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[thereismore]

37. Graph here. Me loving this! Palin bounce? Obama gets his (repig) convention bump! nt

[judasdisney]

38. And yet... AP/Yahoo 12pm Mon "Obama's DNC bounce smaller than others and shrinking"

http://news.yahoo.com/story//politico/13068

The drumbeat of Ruling Class-owned media. Don't tell me they're motivated by "centrism"

[Anarcho-Socialist]

47. pathetic isn't it?

I wouldn't be surprised to see headlines of "Obama campaign flounders as polls show an 8-point lead"

[judasdisney]

90. more sinister and perfidious than pathetic

[concreteblue]

40. What is the thinking/evidence for the GOP being in dissarray?

While i understand the ideas other posters are hypothesizing, i was listening to my local nutjob radio call in show this morning and the central KY kool-aid drinkers think she is a GREAT pick.
of course, maybe that says it all.............

[goforit]

46. Is Ron Paul at the convention???

[Captiosus]

65. "Is Ron Paul at the convention???" Yes,

Ron Paul is there. They interviewed him there at CNN this morning, but according to him he's under severe restrictions. According to him, he has to pick up his floor pass at the front every day and leave it at the door when he leaves and he's not allowed to leave with anyone.

[iamthebandfanman]

49. as the kids would say

uber pwnage!

[Iwillnevergiveup]

50. HIP

HIP HOORAY!:toast: :applause:

I'd be lovin' it to see it at 55% after this sorry convention.

[NorCalDem]

51. How's he's not at 60%+ is beyond me...

I guess people in this country really ARE that stupid...

[cognito]

52. How he's not at 60%

Because 42% of the people in this country are apparently insane.

[HopeHoops]

54. No, just 42% of those with land lines

Keep in mind that a LARGE swath of Obama voters are in the "Land lines, we don't need no stinkin' land lines" category and simply don't register in these polls. Of course, that's why we have Diebold to correct "voting irregularities" that might otherwise imply Obama wins the election.

[wryter2000]

55. Someone had better tell Yahoo

One of their headlines this morning was something like, "Obama bounce smaller than expected and shrinking."

[skoalyman]

61. to bad it wasn't twins lol double the bounce

;) for obama

[superconnected]

59. I guess 50% want womens rights to be pillaged, good luck blacks, you'll be next.

[NeoConsSuck]

62. HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN !!

We've already had two recessions in the last eight years of NeoCon 'stewardship'. We're still knee-deep in the second.

[HockeyMom]

64. I have YET to see one single McCain sticker

where I live in a very Republican area of Florida. All I see are Obama stickers. I get nothing but POSITIVE comments when I where my Obama Mama shirt, i.e, "where can I get one of those"?

[HopeHoops]

66. Here in GOP south-central PA, we have ONE McCain sign in a yard

Yes, in the entire neighborhood there is exactly one McCain sign. Of course, it is in the same yard that originally had a Hillary sign (as commanded by Limbaugh) and THEN had BOTH a Hillary and McCain sign, and their son, who has been bounced in and out of Iraq as a Marine, lives in a small mobile home custom painted "THE FREEDOM EXPRESS" with his wife and small kids. It is parked on the front yard - in the yard - with a power cord hooked to he house. I don't really want to know what they do with the septic tank, although it does bring to mind a company named "BLACKWATER" (you have to know RVs to get the reference). To quote Gerald Arthur Cooper from "The Full Monty", when confronted with an unpleasant situation, "This is a good neighborhood is this." The house next to them has been vacant and on the market for over a year. I don't expect it to sell anytime soon.

Other than that, I haven't seen any McCain signs or stickers. The Obama stuff is everywhere - and this is GOP territory! We're talking Tom Ridge home turf! Even Camp Hill, you heard me, blue-haired old ladies CAMP HILL is devoid of McCain signs. This is just weird. Frankly, I expect all of the local GOP candidates to win in November, but not McCain. That box can simply be left blank. But we do have those touch-screen things so we'll leave it up to Diebold to tell us how we voted, eh?

[HockeyMom]

68. Scantron Ballots here

They switched from those touch screen machines this year. We will see. Supposedly, you will be getting a paper receipt after you vote. I don't know if it will actually SAY on it who you actually voted for. I sincerely hope so. If not, what is the point? Just to say you have voted? Not good enough.

[superconnected]

70. I want an Obama tee shirt.

I must go look for one.

Thanks for pointing that out!

[HockeyMom]

75. You can get them on his website

I also saw something from Moveon.org where they are giving them away with a contribution. Sorry, I don't have the details on that. I did get a free bumper sticker from them.

[superconnected]

79. I went to ebay and bought one after my post. Darn, I would rather the money go directly to Obama.

I'll check out his website.

[HockeyMom]

97. My daughter bought me an Obama Mama Tshirt

for Mother's Day on purpose from his website so a portion would go towards his comapaign fund.:)

[fujiyama]

87. HockeyMom!

Doesn't Sarah Palin consider herself that? I think she plays ice hockey! lol, DON'T worry I'm not accusing you of being Palin!

[HockeyMom]

98. Do her DAUGHTERS play ice hockey?

My daughter did, and on a boys teams. She played D3 in college.

Nothing wrong with being a Hockey Mom of sons, but it is more special having a daughter who played ice hockey and still does on an adult team. As a teenager, my daughter's team played in between periods of a NY Rangers game at Madisom Square Garden. What was Palin's daughter doing as a teenager? Hmmm?

My daughter is defense and has checked boys and men. :) Again, what are Palin's daughters doing?

[lonestarnot]

67. Woodamnwhooooo!

But still don't believe in polls. Tomorrow they'll say he's down to 5 or some such nonsense.

[humbled_opinion]

69. Gallup Historically,

Oversamples Conservatives in their polls so add a couple in the real world... Obama in a landslide.

[LibertyorDeath]

73. Gallup is a crock of shit.

Obama is easily 10 points ahead of MCgrumpy.

[Mnemosyne]

74. I was just polled! n/t

[katty]

76. Lordy thanks for this!!!

[elleng]

82. ARG:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

Among voters age 50 and older (52% of likely voters), Obama leads 48% to 44%.

[fujiyama]

88. If Obama is leading that demographic

he will almost definitely win the election.

[JI7]

89. wow, Obama wouldhave been lucky to even be just 5 points behind

i think a lot of people who were supporting McCain were doing it because of experience and with the Palin VP pick he hurt the one advantage he had over Obama.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

92. I agree with that

McCain tried to do two things at once. The VP pick was meant to reassure evangelical voters (on this it succeeded), but it was a gamble to pick up Hillary Clinton supporters also. It backfired on the latter because Hillary Clinton supporters aren't going to vote for an anti-choice female as she'll be seen as a male-proxy.

At the same time, Governor Palin's lackluster record in office as Governor and Mayor is under question. Thus John McCain's credibility in making important decisions is now undermined, a boon for Obama-Biden.

[faulknercindy]

83. You know what I feel is important is this..

the polls on real clear politics have obama ahead with barr and nader. Do you think they can be a wonderful spoiler for McDork?

[SarahPalinTooRisky]

86. Do you think MCCain will bounce back after the RNC?

Do you think MCCain will bounce back after the RNC?

[Curtland1015]

91. There is always a bounce after these conventions

So yes, McCain will very likely get some points back. The real question is, how many?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

93. indeed

although I would imagine that the claw-back will be far smaller than what Bush obtained after the GOP Convention in 2004. McCain is arguably much worse a public speaker than Bush, and so he would need to make the speech of his life to make any significant bump.

The other side of it will be the GOP spin operation, if McCain makes a semi-coherent speech it will be lauded by GOP talking points, and it will be up to the media to carry this through. If the media thinks "John McCain makes comeback speech" will be a good narrative, then that's what it will push. There's always a fair chance that the media could make a story out of "McCain blows it at convention" if the GOP spin is ineffective and the DNC spin is effective. I won't hold my breath for the latter as it's in the media's interest for a close race as it is hoped that this would carry greater public attention.

[nolabels]

94. My glass is over flowing but they still want to tell me it's half full

Guess they must still be thinking they deserve half of what ever i got, but that's still okay with me cause i never listen to thier crap anyway :toast:

[AnneD]

95. Too bad the RNC was curtailed...

he might get a bigger bounce:spray:

[opihimoimoi]

96. McWreck will prolly get a tiny bounce...if that....might very well be a Neg reverse dip instead

Bwahahahaha

[and-justice-for-all]

99. Rock on!

[rcsl1998]

100. I'm Waiting For The Expected 15% Bump From McCain's RNC Convention

Prior to the DNC, all the usual suspects were saying that a political convention historically reaps a 15-20% bump - anything less is a failure.

Hey McCain/Palin, I'm waiting...