CBS Poll: McCain, Obama Tied

[RamboLiberal]

Source: CBS News

The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

McCain has also closed the enthusiasm gap some with Obama, but it still exists. Fifty-five percent of Obama's supporters are enthusiastic about their choice, and now so are 35% of McCain's. Last weekend, just 25 percent of McCain's supporters were enthusiastic about him, compared to 67 of Obama's supporters.

This week's polling continues to show voters waiting to decide about Sarah Palin (see yesterday's poll on Palin). But in interviewing done yesterday, 83 percent of registered voters said that spouse and family of a candidate will not affect their votes.


Read more: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/04/opinion/polls/main4416798.shtml

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Shit!

[TheWraith]

1. Another major poll went the other direction, from even to Obama up by 8.

Don't panic.

[LuckyTheDog]

19. Got a link?

Which poll? When was it taken?

[my3boyz]

22. here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3465215

[Wetzelbill]

2. I just saw Gallup had Obama up 49-42

with no real change the last few days. They're usually a better gauge than the news polls etc.

[Mike Daniels]

31. Morning Joe showed both CBS and Gallop and Gallop was still 49-42

The CBS poll just seems weird.

[Demobrat]

3. This is how they'll steal it.

Keep reporting tied polls no matter what. Then when McCain "wins" it will be believable.

[olddad56]

6. exactly, wouldn't look good to rig an election where the loser was was ahead.

[Wetzelbill]

4. I should also say Obama is up in Rasmussen

and a few other polls. This is the first one I saw that said it was tied. He's up in almost all and over the margin of error.

[Mojambo]

5. Outlier. n/t

[nickgutierrez]

8. Big-time outlier.

A quick check over at fivethirtyeight.com shows Obama up 50-45 in the Rasmussen poll, and a seven point lead in Gallop.

[Blaq Dem]

21. Did you mean to say, OUT-LIAR?

[YOY]

7. With 70 year olds maybe...

n.t.

[brianna69]

9. TheWraith

What other major poll had Obama move to being up 8 points?

[greyghost]

10. I call BULLSH*T!

[Frisbee]

11. Check out...

pollster.com
electoral-vote.com

Obama is still kicking ass in the electoral collage. And that's what it all comes down to.

[SlowDownFast]

12. Polls are skewed.

They just are. Depending on the agency doing the polling.

[Journeyman]

13. This same poll had Obama up 48-40 on Sunday . . .

CBS New National (8-29/31): Obama 48, McCain 40 (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_cbs_news_national_82931.php)

CBS News National (9-01/03): Obama 42, McCain 42 (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_mccain_42_obama_42_cbs913.php)

And this would not include Palin's speech -- or any of the other's -- from yesterday. So to accept this, you'd have to believe that Foghorn Leghorn and Droopy Dog caused Obama to lose 6 points and McCain to gain only 2.

I think I'll wait for some other polls, maybe sometime the middle to end of next week, to see what the effect of the conventions have on the general public.

[L0oniX]

14. CBS = Cee Bull Shit

[ben_meyers]

15. Woo-Hoo!! No Palin bounce!! Smack!

[RamboLiberal]

16. Clue from GDP Post

Do you want an explanation for what happened since the last poll?

They changed their party ID. They decreased Independents by 5 pts (which Obama is winning) and raised Repub by 5 points. Slight of hand party for suc ha shift in two day period. People please look at the stats.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/09/poll_obamas_lead_disappears_in.php#comment-3079137

[Saynt]

17. I really get confused with polls...

... because they normally don't add up to 100%, which most of the time is 'oh yeh the rest are undecided'...

but here...

42% Obama
42% McCain
=84%

+12% undecided
=96%

+1% not participating
=97%

97%? WTF?

OHHHHH +3% who are also voting Obama but we lied our asses off about!

45%-42% is the absolute lowest that *might* even make sense in light of recent numbers.

[ryanmuegge]

18. As long as we can win in the right states, it doesn't matter.

In fact, I'd get a bit of satisfaction if we lost the popular vote and won the electoral vote...just to piss some people off.

[DeadManInc]

20. This is bullshit! CBS sucking republicans again.

[TomClash]

23. An outlier nt

[depakid]

25. More like intentionally skewed

to try to influence public opinion.

[robcon]

24. It all depends on the timing of the poll.

I think this is a "heads up" on a possible convention bounce for McCain. It needs to be confirmed by other polls.

The campaign is on.

[FrenchieCat]

26. It's a heads up on skewed tab results to encourage poll numbers to

actually go down.

[bitchkitty]

27. Bullcrap.

I think they're going to try and steal it again. If they succeed this time, I'll give up.

[Stuart G]

28. CBS...worse than Fox...why? claim to be unbiased..

They are not...they and their ilk, shill Bush..You should disregard poll as attempt to bring election closer so that CBS can sell more political ads....

[ShortnFiery]

29. I place no veracity to the results of Corporate Sponsored M$M Political Polls. None. Nada. eom

[robcon]

30. I think anyone who does not put any weight to the polls is deeply and tragically uninformed.

No poll is "accurate," or perfect (sample, phrasing of questions, timing, etc.) But a group of polls tells the story very accurately.

I await confirmation or contradiction from other polls. Putting no weight on polls is sticking your head in the sand and wishing "it" (whatever "it" is) were not true.

[Beetwasher]

32. READ THE INTERNALS-I Can Only Assume They DELIBERATELYE FUCKED W/ THE DATA

They sampled 5% LESS independents and 5% MORE Republicans than the last poll!!!

[robcon]

35. That's usually the case.

Those independents/fence-sitters who tell the pollster they are voting for a Democrat often identify themselves as a Democrat, and vice-versa for Repuglicans.

That's why it is statistically invalid to control for party affiliation in a poll - party affiliation is changeable, and polls should only control for unchangeable factors like age, sex, geographic location, etc.

[Beetwasher]

39. Except The Sample Should Reflect, To Some Degree, The National

split of Dem Vs. Repub. For instance, if 40% of the electorate describes themselves as Dem and 30% Repub and 30% Ind., then the poll sample should reflect those numbers. If you do a poll one week w/ that split, but then the next week you increase Repubs in your samaple to 35% and decrease the indies to 25%, then the polls are NOT comparable and you can't really compare the data. They would be two completely different, non-comparable polls regardless of them both being conducted by the same organization, and the comparison would be VERY misleading to people who don't know any better.

[marshall]

33. As long as it's tied we're not down

The gloves will have to come off when they start reporting a McC lead.

[NeoConsSuck]

34. I wonder

if they asked any of the 84,000 who lost their jobs last month under this Bush-McSame administration.

[davekriss]

36. If true than America gets the bad government it deserves...

...and President McIdiot should begin his next speech, "My fellow As*holes...", because that's what a slight majority of us will be.

[robcon]

37. America "deserves" bad government.?????

I disagree. America is a good country - one of the best, if not the best.

[MetaTrope]

38. CBS? The news network that splices different answers onto questions that McCain gets wrong?

Just another reordering of reality for them.

[robcon]

40. Rasmussen confirms CBS poll - approximately.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows the beginning of John McCain’s convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Barack Obama’s bounce. Obama now attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 46% (see recent daily results).

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Virtually all of the interviews for today’s update were completed before McCain’s speech last night. Roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before Palin’s speech on Wednesday night. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.

Both Obama and McCain are now viewed favorably by 57% of the nation’s voters (see trends). However, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 58%--a point more than either Presidential hopeful. Forty percent (40%) have a Very Favorable opinion of her.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[davepc]

41. If they best McCain can do off his convention is pull even, then we're sitting pretty.

Anyways, the state polls matter more, and they are playing BIG TIME defence in Red States.

Fuck, Montana and Indiana are in play....

[budkin]

42. Undecideds will break for Obama... book it!