STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 5 February (#1)

[ozymandius]

Thursday February 5, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 354
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY...
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 55 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 107 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 319
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 803
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 4, 2004

Dow... 10,470.74 -34.44 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq... 2,014.14 -52.07 (-2.52%)
S&P 500... 1,126.52 -9.51 (-0.84%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.12% +0.02 (+0.59%)
Gold future... 401.70 +1.80 (+0.45%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[JNelson6563]

1. Good morning Marketeers!

Got some numbers coming out in just a few minutes this morning. Futures are bright and shiney. Could be a happy day on the Street.

We'll have a better idea what direction we may be going after productivty and employment #s are out.

Michigan caucus day after tomorrow! Whoooo-hoooooooo!!!!!!!!!

Julie

[salin]

2. The employment (Jan) numbers comeout today?

Wonder how they will compare to the whopping 1,000 jobs (predicted before hand to be 100,000 to 150,000) created in December.

Btw, when did Michigan move to caucuses from regular primaries? In 1992 I voted in a general primary in Michigan (for Tsongas who bowed out of the race after that primary day...)

[Maeve]

4. Those don't come out til tomorrow

Today's story is the Initial Claims--which surged above expectations.

The Labor Department said 356,000 people filed new claims for state unemployment benefits in the week ended Jan. 31, compared with a revised 339,000 the prior week. Economists, on average, expected 340,000 new claims, according to Briefing.com.


http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/05/news/economy/jobless/index.htm

:hi: Marketeers! Had to drop by for my favorite numbers day!

[salin]

9. That makes for a HUGE number of job gains that will be required

to show net creation.

[Frodo]

11. Really?

So if there is ANY net creation reported tomorrow you'll give shrub credit for a "HUGE number of job gains"??

We need to calm down and stop seeing every tiny number as massive news one way or the other. This was a pretty "blah" number and there isn't massive job creation necessary to come up with net improvement. Tomorrow could show in the enighborhood of 150k new jobs, or we could get another "surprise" and get essentially nothing like last month. Neither means there were huge numbers of new obs to offset these weekly figures... it's SUPPOSED to be flat/improved for anything under 400,000, so 356,000 is not some massive hurdle.

It would take a number OVER 150,000 new jobs to be a "great" report (well, "best of shrub's term", not "great". We saw months over 400k not so very long ago)

The weekly UI number is highly variable so economists watch the 4-wk average (and even THAT doesn't tell the whole tale) which is essentially unchanged because this weeks number replaces another slight spike four weeks ago.

[salin]

13. After the cummulative losses of jobs over the past three years

yes, when we start regenerating sizeable enough job creation to offset the net impact of prolonged job losses - then yes I would hail that as significant. Given the mass lay-off numbers announced in the past three weeks that will occur generally in the next 12 months - there desperately needs to be some real job generation. Sometimes its not all about politics - but about an environment where more folks can begin to find comparable jobs to those that had been lost.

Not talking about the jobloss as an indicator as you are doing ... but as a condition for a large number of Americans.

When the claims increase - the gains needed to create net gains increase as well. From a numbers point of view (looking at things on paper) your perspective has some weight. From the reality of 1,000 new jobs to help start stemming the huge cummulative losses for real working people in terms of job opportunties - there is a long, long way to go...

Not a massive hurdle? Again when talking real jobs - over the a prolonged period - each month where it is flat is another month before many of the long-term unemployed or the newly under-employed find jobs.

[Frodo]

18. Sure.

I agree with almost all of that.

But even a truly HUGE number (say back to 400k new jobs in a month) would STILL leave "another month before many of the long-term unemployed or the newly under-employed find jobs." That wouldn't change the fact that it would be a fabulous month (400k plus 345k x4 = 1.78 Million people getting hired last month). But there would STILL be over 2 Million MORE people unemployed then when Bush took over.

[salin]

25. agreed

but were it the first of several months to follow - then (helping bush as it may) more and more people would be finding more job opportunities.

My late father, a Harvard trained PhD in economics, never lost site of the human side to the numbers - nor the long term implications (in human terms) of trends. His biggest concern as the field moved more and more to the primary domain of econometrics was that the human - or social science grounding - of the field was often being lost in analyses. Shortly after he died I began my own doctoral studies, though I was in a policy program and not studying economics, my thesis advisor was an economist and many of my colleagues were picking up economic masters degrees along with their policy phds. Many of that department's professors (and their colleagues in the b-school) are national leaders (with a few nobel prizes spread around.) While it was not my field I was surrounded by it - and I would have to agree with my late fathers' assessment. Sometimes that carries its ways into my commentaries. No offense intended, just a little context.

[54anickel]

30. Facinating. Do you have any thoughts on the rising interest in the

Institutionalist school of economics? It sounds as though your father was interested in the reality of economics - a big theme of the Institutionalist theories.

[salin]

37. I have been out of the mix for a few years

while i am familiar with 'Institutional Theory' - blended from sociology and organizational studies lines of study - I am not familiar with what the theories hold in economics. Really - I am a neophyte in higher level economics (but tend to have a pretty good grasp of understanding theories when presented...)

My father began his career in the field of anti-trust and anti-competitive behaviors. Took a sabatical from the U (early on) to work at the FTC where he found a huge gap in practice (govt application) from the field of study. For a period of time (60s-70s) was called a few times to testify before congress and was once a 'expert witness' in a Supreme Court case. Actually on that case (which I only learned about after his death as I went through many of his papers) - he was brought on by one side - but when he concluded that the behavior did not reach the bar of anti-competitive behavior he was dropped by the one side and considered to be pulled in by the other side. My respect for him grew tremendously in seeing that. His research agenda shifted in the 80s to corporate governance.

He was concerned by two trends that were accelerating in the early/mid eighties. First, the push at the top for evaluating (through compensation) the performance of CEOs on short-term (quarterly) gains - and how that was leading to less investment in r&d. His theory was manufacturing was a huge core of our economic "engine" (so to speak) but that the US labor force could not compete over time with the lower wage workers elsewhere. He believed that the strength both corporate and labor wise was in the development of new products and the initial years of production. He believed that more investment in R&D, and tooling factories in ways that were easily changable (in terms of spinning off production after the first three years to off-shore subsidiaries and beginning production of the next innovation/product) and training workers similarly would keep manufacturing as a vibrant economic centerpiece in the US - would keep US corporations performing well, etc. His view was that Corporate Boards should adopt compensation packages that increased (in 1984's levels) executive pay - but delayed quarterly bonuses based on performances by several years (e.g., the bonuses would be based on the first quarter five years delayed, and each subsequent quarter of service). This would push the business plans further out - and encourage strategic investment in R&D.

The second area of concern was the acceleration of what he considered horizontal megamergers - where the merger did little to increase the productivity of the corporation, but increased the debtload of the corporations and led to the funky leveraged buy-out frenzy in the late eighties in which companies suddenly were trying to increase debt in ways that were not necessarily healthy to their company, but that made the company less attractive for hostile takeover (and later dismantling) - and that the game became making the corporation less attractive without crossing the line to where it was more vulnerable to takeover.

That doesn't answer your question - but it gives me the opportunity for a moment to think of this man I revered, who we lost too early (because the prostate cancer wasn't detected early enough) and whose research agenda was ahead of its time - as themes he refered to suddenly started being floated by the late nineties. There are so many times I have wished that I could speak with him to get his take on various issues as they unfold... but of course I can't. Getting to at least bask in the memory for the moment to write this post is about as close as I can get. Thanks for the opportunity to do so.

[ozymandius]

40. What a wonderful post and what a wonderful father.

The story you relate makes your father sound like a visionary. Let me guess: he was not a supply-sider?

Who do you feel comes close to parity, these days, with your father's views?

[salin]

43. no... in the eighties he despised ole Milton and the Chicago school

thought it was very simplistic - and dangerous. At that point as he was trying to get me to read more on the subject (I was working in DC at the time) he would promote the writing of Lester Thurow (a title along the lines of "The Zero Sum Solution"? I still have yet to read it - but with this reminder I really should go get a copy and read it.)

Don't know about today's economists - though in terms of popular press economists I think he would appreciate both Krugman (who I have oft been tempted to write given his focus and my interests through my father) and Galbraith (whose father, btw, was I believe on my fathers dissertation committee.)

[UpInArms]

41. What an awesome post, Salin

to you and your father :toast:

[salin]

44. thanks...

you know I don't think he would care if I gave him a tribute or not... but he would be glad to see those ideas floated again to be read and considered by others. To his end he was an academic.

[54anickel]

42. Thank you so much for sharing. Seems your father was a beautiful

man. His research was certainly on course. Your loss is shared by many, known and unknown to you and your father. I hope his work may be picked up by others that he may have touched in his lifetime.

I lost my father to prostrate cancer as well, he suffered off and on for a little over 20 years, the last 3 of which were horrible. But they were also the best 3 years with regards to our relationship. He left me so many memories as well. And yes, there are many times I miss being able to pose one last question to him.

[salin]

45. Thank you

my fathers battle was shorter (seven years) with three bouts - the last being debilating but thankfully short (seven months.) It is nice to have our memories and those discussions, though, isn't it?

I don't know that it will be picked up - but I do know that he touched some of his former students and in that way continues to have at least a small influence upon their work (as my advisor has on mine).

[54anickel]

47. No, thank you. I sometimes get so tied up in "watching" this silly

business regarding money, that I tend to loose touch with those memories of loved ones long gone. More importantly, you give evidence there will always be people like your father that offer a glimpse of hope and that there are ways to make things better. It may take time and effort but good will triumph in the end, there is so much of it in the world - we just don't always hear about it.

[salin]

49. I don't know enough... but have often thought

if there were ways to tie tax incentives (eg the big corporate breaks that we give) to some of his theories - that it might be an interesting alternative for some of our democratic policy makers. Tax breaks tied to long-term r&d policies, tied to corporate governance (eg lengthening the compensation period that encourages long term strategic business planning)... it might make absolutely no sense - but I just can't shake the feeling that there is something to it.

[54anickel]

51. Makes sense to me. Tax incentives as the carrot. Beats tax breaks

for the sake of tax breaks with no strings attached. You certainly are on to something. As it is now, monetary expansion seems to be getting sucked into that black hole of these insane CEO compensations rather than into capital expenditures and corporate improvements, just look at Cisco's announcement, it did not meet the market expectations - no big capital expenditures? Just too much corruption and greed. There is less economic bang for the buck that the monetariests keep tossing out there.

[salin]

52. not to mention the huge costs of debts

gained through the various mergers of the recent years. That drains the ability of revenues to be devoted to reinvestment as some of it has to pay off the debts.

Personally I think we have a very significant debt problem - from individual/household, to corporate, to governmental - and bank holding of all of these types of debts. Very little discussion on how all of this debt might interplay - and the long-term costs (and potential problems) - shows up in policy discussions. Almost as if we look the other way it will all just magically disappear.

[54anickel]

53. Sure, didn't ya hear Unca Dick say deficits don't matter? Raygun

proved it. :eyes:

I don't think you are at all alone with your concerns.

Well, I must leave for a bit now. The blood suckers want my plasma. Seems to be some major shortage going on. They called last night with a sense of urgency.

Will check in later with all you Marketeers. :hi:

[Teaser]

15. I believe that...

Brad Delong (http://www.j-bradford-delong.net) has estimated 200,000 jobs a month need to be created for several years to reemploy the people who lost their jobs in the past two years.

So far, we ain't coming close.

[Frodo]

19. Well, 200,000/month for a full year would just about do it...

But we're unlikely to see THAT. It probably WILL ramp up to over 200k/month by the election, but I'd still expect a net negative number for Bush's term.

[seasat]

58. Don't forget that the US economy requires 150,000 Jobs...

to be created per month to compensate for population growth. You'd need about 350,000 per month for a year to make up the job loss during this misadministration.

[ozymandius]

12. Welcome Maeve, Queen of Connacht!

Glad to see you're still around and giving this thread, that sorely misses your participation, some attention.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

[Maeve]

26. Congrats on 4,000 posts, O King of the Desert!

Sorry I can't spend more time here, but duties call...

[ozymandius]

35. 4,000+ and not banned yet

Of course, if I were to be banned, I would rather be banned by someone I know. :evilgrin:

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning Julie.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I'll bet that productivity is up - as well as unemployment. It seems that the UE numbers have been covered extensively in the news lately.

Now - off to the WrapUp...

[JNelson6563]

6. You're right!

Did Maeve give you her seeing stone? ;-)

I was on the phone with the usual morning political business but did see that UE was up last week by 17,000 and productivity was up too.

That is all I retained.

Julie

[jamesinca]

5. Good morning all

Will the markets continue past indiscretions or will they continue back down to Bush numbers. The Euro and Yen have been going to Bush like numbers. Snow is asking to push the debt limit for the federal government even higher, or should I say deeper. I think UE numbers may be something that plays big today especially with all the other news out there.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.newsday.com/news/politics/wire/sns-ap-budget-deficit,0,1177...

Having problems with the link, so here is part of the article.

Snow Says Debt Limit Will Have to Go Up



By MARY DALRYMPLE
Associated Press Writer

February 4, 2004, 6:39 PM EST


WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary John Snow told lawmakers Wednesday that the nation's debt limit will probably have to be raised sometime in late summer so the government can continue borrowing money.

Snow made the ballpark estimate while testifying before the House Budget Committee about the president's proposed budget, which shows the government expects to spend $521 billion more than it collects this year.

The timing could place Congress in the debate over debt financing shortly before the presidential election.

The legal limit on government debt currently sits at $7.4 trillion. Congress last year passed a record $984 billion boost when the borrowing authority ran out, after an intensely partisan debate over the president's economic policies.

Snow said the magnitude of the next increase would depend on how long lawmakers want to forestall yet another increase.

The Treasury Department also said Wednesday it will decide in May whether the government should add one or more new securities to help finance the national debt. Brian Roseboro, Treasury's acting under secretary for domestic finance, said the government expects to have a better handle on the situation in May after analyzing tax collections.

Annual deficits and the government's accumulated debt already figure squarely in Democratic election-year attacks on the president's tax and spending policies.

[ozymandius]

10. Did you catch the exchange between UIA and 54anickel yesterday?

Pure outrage! The bone of contention was the auction of billions of dollars worth of bonds. What for, you may ask? To cover payments on the interest of our national debt. How insane is that? We are going into debt just to cover the national debt's interest payments!

[jamesinca]

16. I went back at about 1:00 this am

I wanted to see how the markets did yesterday. I did see a lot of post by those two in yesterdays SMW but did not read all of it.

In my mind it makes no sense to take out a loan to cover a debt. It does not get rid of the debt, it just adds interest to the debt. If you can get the loan for less interest than the original amount that at least is better than getting a loan for loans sake.

Out here in CA Arnold is trying to do that. He wants a $15 billion bond to make ends meet this year. My question is this, what about the interest, how is it going to be paid, and what about next year? One needs to fix the problem, not just take out a loan to cover an old debt. Unless you are George Bush, then it does not matter and daddy can bail you out. Problem is, daddy ain't got 7.4 trillion.

[jamesinca]

7. Tech bounceback looms

Investors appear ready to return to sector a day after Cisco, Oracle pace big selloff.
February 5, 2004: 7:29 AM EST



NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - After getting slammed on disappointment about Cisco Systems, U.S. tech stocks were poised to make a comeback at Thursday's open, while investors await key economic developments over the next few days.

At 7:25 a.m. ET, futures pointed to a higher open, particularly for the tech-laden Nasdaq.

The Nasdaq skidded 2.5 percent Wednesday on two developments: disappointment that Cisco's results announced late Tuesday weren't even better, and Oracle's raised bid for PeopleSoft at least prolonging the lengthy tussle between the two software makers. After such a loss, investors appeared to be looking to get back into the market Thursday morning.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.3 percent in Wednesday's trading.

Two economic reports are due before the start of trading.

The weekly report of initial unemployment claims is expected to show a slight decline in the latest week to 340,000 from 342,000 in the prior week, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. The report comes a day before the jobs figures for January, which are seen showing unemployment holding at 5.7 percent and the number of jobs created at 165,000.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/02/05/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

[ozymandius]

8. For my 4,000th post - the WrapUp by Mike Hartman

"Double-Minded Markets"

The U.S. dollar strengthened and government bond prices moved lower today, pushing interest rates a notch higher due to further signs of economic improvement. Simultaneously, stock prices moved lower due mainly to lower guidance of near term sales and earnings for technology companies. Late yesterday, Cisco softened their overly optimistic expectations by saying some business leaders remained “surprisingly cautious” toward capital spending and hiring. Cisco stock fell $2.33 or nearly 9% to $24.08. Also note Cisco sold off on very heavy volume over 190 million shares, which is about four times their normal volume in a day. Ciena also warned late Tuesday that first-quarter revenue would fall short of expectations. Since the market punishes those who don’t perform, Ciena shares were pounded for a one-day loss of almost 18% to close at $5.99.

Economy and Bonds

The Commerce Department reported factory orders rising by 1.1% in December while economists were anticipating a gain of 0.7%. In similar fashion, the Institute for Supply Management’s Service Industry Index rose to 65.7, the highest reading EVER since the index was created in July 1997. Economists expected the Service Industry Index to rise to 60, from 58.6 in December. According to Bloomberg News, economists’ estimates ranged from 56.5 to 64.5, but the number (65.7) wasn’t even within their range! How can all of the economists be so wrong? I would suggest there has been some tinkering with the numbers, and none of our officials have given the economists a heads-up the rules of the game are being changed behind the scenes.

It’s really no problem if we get a bad number, because it can always be revised later. My case in point comes from this CBS MarketWatch quote, “A troubling slump in capital spending in December that was reported last week was revised away by more complete data from the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Rather than falling 0.4% as previously estimated, core capital goods orders increased 0.8% in December, the government agency said.” Not bad…a few adjustments and magically the orders go from negative to positive. According to the article, “The soft capital goods data last week had raised major questions about the durability of the U.S. expansion. Please folks, look back at what Cisco had to say yesterday regarding their expectations for REDUCED CAPITAL SPENDING. Their statement was based on current input from their customers. Cisco’s statements support the reduction of capital spending as originally stated by the government statistics rather than the numbers that were adjusted higher.

<cut>

G-7 and The Dollar

The dollar resumed its recent downtrend in recent trading sessions as investors are beginning to doubt the likelihood of G-7 cooperation to support our declining currency. The Group of Seven countries is made up of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and the United States. When looking at the roster of countries, it is not difficult to believe they will have difficulty coming to an agreement on how to handle the recent volatility in currency exchange rates and the rapid fall of the dollar. Most analysts close to the situation don’t see any major changes coming from this meeting since it is being portrayed as political window-dressing.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[UpInArms]

14. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 86.60 Change -0.24 (-0.28%)

Since we all know that we are in the "will they say anything worthy or will they be silent" waiting game for the G-7, I don't think I'll post any redundant articles today.

Thoughts on the debt and deficit issues should be prominent in everyone's mind -

If you have a credit card with a debt limit and your income is falling and you have a proven record that you are borrowing money just to pay the interest on the credit card, do you think any reasonable lender would "up" your credit limit?

No, a "reasonable" lender would not. Only a "loan shark" would do such a thing. Then why would a loan shark do that? Because he wants to have the ability to "foreclose" on your assets.

So just think about who is buying our debt and what the "assets" of the USoA actually are.



Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[jamesinca]

20. That is an awfully big number on your post

And it is all in red!!! Those are bad table manners in the financial world. $6,999,065,286,336.81

[UpInArms]

22. James,

I have impeccable manners :D

Here's that number again (it looked too small in your post.

[Frodo]

23. So is that around $10 per person...

... for every human being on the PLANET!!!????

[UpInArms]

24. Frodo,

every person on the planet does not pay taxes which subsidize the USoA debt.

The debt is rising every second in this country.

More than $23K for every man, woman and child - if you have a family of 3 (couple and one child) - your family's share is $70K

[Frodo]

39. Worse than that./

I have a family of FIVE and the next on the way!

I thought I had saved well... I just lost more than 1/3 of my net worth!

Thanks alot! I have to get back to work.

[54anickel]

27. So, soon we become the USoJ, no?

:evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

28. more like the USoC

[54anickel]

31. But they aren't buying our debt, the are simply stuck with a lot of

bird cage liner in exchange for Wal-Marts inventories.
Perhaps it will remain USoA(sian). Spread the spoils around a bit.

[UpInArms]

46. I couldn't find a definative amount

but did find this:

In contrast, the United States today is a net importer, or borrower, of capital—not only from China and Japan but also from Europe and emerging economies, at a rate of more than $500 billion a year, or approximately five percent of our GDP.

http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2004/01/schwenninger.htm

which is only the "trade deficit" side of the problem.

When you deal with twin deficits (trade and budgetary) - we are talking $1 Trillion in debt per year.

So it would seem that the sword dangles ever closer.

[54anickel]

50. At least Europe and Japan are also exporting to China (seems we

only lead in exporting jobs).

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4161644
snip>
MEETING DEMAND. What's more, some of Europe's biggest companies are making a boatload on exports to China. During the first 10 months of last year, the EU sold $41 billion in goods and services to the Chinese, nearly twice the amount of U.S. exports to China during the period. With Chinese growth cooking along at more than 9% last year, there's a huge appetite for infrastructure equipment, which is a forte of Continental European companies. Germany's Siemens has built large chunks of the Chinese telecommunications system while selling the nation equipment for dams, power plants, and railway projects. Swiss-Swedish engineering giant ABB Ltd. (ABB) supplies the Chinese steel and petrochemical industries, while French utility companies Suez (SZE) and Veolia Environnement have won billions in contracts for water and waste-treatment systems.

more....

Can't find the article that gives quantitative data on Japanese exports to China, but I did read this one this morning.
snip>
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/69660/1/.html
Analysts said there has been a sea change in the bank's policy since Toshihiko Fukui took over as governor in March 2003.

The career central banker has established closer contact with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, who is staking his political future on government reforms and deflation-busting.

In the February monthly report, the bank's assessment of Japan's overall economic health was unchanged from January while it stressed the recovery was being led by increasing exports.

Japanese automobiles and high-tech gadgets, such as flat-screen televisions, DVD players and cellular phones, are particularly popular among the emerging middle class in China.

"Exports have recently increased substantially and business fixed investment continues a gradual recovery" leading to higher industrial production, it said.

The bank did not highlight the threat of a rising yen to Japanese exporters, but economists said the BOJ would continue to do all it can do to prop up growth, including credit easing and currency market intervention.

"Exporters have been able to absorb the impact of the appreciation of the yen thanks to recovering overseas economies," said Azusa Kato, economist at BNP Paribas. "But when the overseas economies slow down next year as forecast, the impact of the high yen will become more serious."

more....

So, it sort of seems like the USoA has become the chain holding the world recovery back.

[ozymandius]

17. 9:45 - Casino's open

Dow 10,477.18 +6.44 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,028.66 +14.52 (+0.72%)
S&P 500 1,128.59 +2.07 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.125% +0.001

[jamesinca]

21. Tower Records Parent to File Chapter 11

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/breaking/breakingnewsarticle.asp?feed...




February 05, 2004 07:48:00 AM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The parent of Tower Records, a high-profile recorded music and entertainment retailer, plans to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after failing to find a suitable buyer, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

[ozymandius]

29. 10:12 Dow dips its toe below waterline

Dow 10,469.41 -1.33 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,024.48 +10.34 (+0.51%)
S&P 500 1,126.82 +0.30 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.126% +0.002

[JNelson6563]

34. 10:28 treading water

not to be confused with walking on water. :-)


Dow 10,477.48 +6.74 (+0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,022.18 +8.04 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,126.72 +0.20 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.129% +0.005


Julie

[ozymandius]

38. 10:49 - most of the action is in this thread's conversation

Market Summary

Dow 10,481.78 +11.04 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,022.44 +8.30 (+0.41%)
S&P 500 1,127.22 +0.70 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.128% +0.004

[54anickel]

32. Gold shaking it's tie to currency?

Perhaps it will finally be allowed to live it's life as a commodity.

http://www.forbes.com/business/newswire/2004/02/05/rtr1243397.html

snip>
Earlier in the week there were signs bullion was loosening slightly from the dollar and Thursday saw gold in euro terms <XAUEUR=> at its lowest level since October.

Although dollar movements are still driving what little movement there has been in the last few days, some are questioning bullion's relationship with currency markets.

"I see that all ending in tears. The longer people talk about gold associated with a peer group like the dollar, equities or bonds, the harder the fall will be," a London-based analyst said. "Correlation does not mean causation."

[ozymandius]

33. Productivity Cools, Jobless Claims Rise

Productivity Cools, Jobless Claims Rise
Thursday February 5, 9:12 am ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business productivity rose at a slower-than-expected pace in the fourth quarter and at the lowest rate in a year and jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week, government reports showed on Thursday.

Non-farm business productivity, or worker output per hour, increased at a 2.7 percent annual rate in the final three months of the year after an upwardly revised 9.5 percent pace in the previous quarter, the Labor Department said.

The advance was the slowest since a 1.5 percent gain in the final quarter of 2002 and was lower than the 3.0 percent clip expected by analysts.

<cut>

JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE

The Labor Department said separately that claims for state unemployment aid rose 17,000 to 356,000 in the week ended Jan. 31 from a revised 339,000 in the previous week.

more...

[ramapo]

36. Unexpected UE Rise?

Why is the BOL surprised? I'm not...

[54anickel]

48. I dunno, maybe because the markets are almost completely based

on expectation and speculation (wishful thinking) instead of basic fundamentals and principles now? :shrug: :evilgrin:

Edit for spelling

[jamesinca]

54. Here are a few more numbers for the Feb total

http://cgi.citizen-times.com/cgi-bin/story/news/49400

Taylor Togs to close; 125 workers to lose jobs
By Mark Barrett, Staff WriterFeb. 4, 2004 10:18 p.m.

BAKERSVILLE - Elaine Miller sewed almost 4,000 buttonholes in Levi's blue jeans Wednesday at the Taylor Togs sewing factory here - and found out she's losing her job of 22 years.

Company officials told the plant's 125 workers Wednesday the facility will close as early as next week, Miller said.

Local government officials said they were told Taylor Togs is closing because the plant has lost work from Levi Strauss Co.,which has been rapidly moving its production overseas in recent years.

"I make good money, and I have no idea what I'm going to do right now," said Miller, who started working at Taylor Togs at age 17.

Miller joins more than 1,100 other Western North Carolina manufacturing workers who have learned just since Jan. 1 that they will lose their jobs.

"Western North Carolina has really taken just an awesome hit here with the loss of jobs in the last couple of weeks," said Van Phillips, Mitchell County's economic development director. "It's unbelievable."

[ozymandius]

55. 12:24 numbers and yammering excuses

Dow 10,473.55 +2.81 (+0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,015.64 +1.50 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,125.40 -1.12 (-0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.112% -0.012

U.S. stocks flatten as hopes for bounce fade

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - The major U.S. stock indexes fell back to nearly unchanged levels as hopes for a bounce following the prior session's drubbing faded.

Blue chip stocks were held in check as a rally in Wal-Mart following strong January sales results was offset by a decline in Citigroup and IBM, and Cisco Systems' dip into negative territory reined in early enthusiasm in the technology sector.

<cut>

Bonds treaded higher ahead of Friday's jobs report, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note (CBOE:^TNX - News) dipping 0.016 percentage points to 4.108 percent.

The dollar slumped 0.6 percent vs. the euro to a 1,2610, but was up 0.1 percent against the Japanese yen at 105.50.

more...

[ozymandius]

56. Checking out for the day

You folks have a great day. Time for me to get to what passes for work these days (basically, looking for work). See you back here in the morning - or later this evening on another thread. :hi:

Ozymandius

[54anickel]

57. Have a good one Ozy, and again thanks for all you do for this thread.

:toast:

[UpInArms]

59. 1:13 numbers and outright lies

Dow 10,509.26 +38.52 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,026.84 +12.70 (+0.63%)
S&P 500 1,129.67 +3.15 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.132% +0.008

<snip> With regard to the latter, the market will be served the Employment report tomorrow morning, which will provide clues on the hiring picture... As a reminder, this morning's Initial Claims report at 356K was below the consensus of 340K, but the 4-week average - a less volatile measure - remained unchanged at 345K, signaling a stabilization in lay-offs...NYSE Adv/Dec 1658/1460, Nasdaq Adv/ Dec 1523/1487

[Teaser]

60. Anybody wanna lay odds on tomorrows jobs numbers?

I'm guessing a "surprise" to the upside of by 10,000 jobs or so.

[54anickel]

61. Final numbers and the blather

Dow 10,495.55 +24.81 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,019.56 +5.42 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,128.59 +2.07 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.174% +0.050


U.S. stocks shook off some early jitters to trade mostly higher as strong January sales results from retailers, a bounce in some key technology sectors following the prior session's drubbing and reports of upbeat comments from a Federal Reserve official emboldened investors.


Well, it looks as though I didn't miss much while away getting the plasma sucked out of me.

Ahh, but look at my old faithful dog gold. :loveya:
Someone has certainly done some blood sucking there.