Ike emerges into the Gulf; Texas at high risk of a major hurricane strike

[Ghost Dog]

Source: Weather Underground

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:10 PM EDT on September 09, 2008

Hurricane Ike has completed its final traverse of Cuba, and is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday. Key West radar shows that the inner eyewall of Ike has collapsed, but satellite loops show that Ike has maintained a large, well-organized circulation during its passage of Cuba. The 4 pm EDT center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 968 mb, which is characteristic of a Category 2 hurricane. Passage over Cuba did not disrupt the storm enough to keep Ike from intensifying into a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico.

The capital of Havana missed the worst of Ike, and reported highest sustained winds of just 40 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 8 am this morning. Ike killed four people in Cuba yesterday--the first hurricane deaths in Cuba this year. Cuba put in place its usual massive evacuation plan for Ike, evacuating 1.2 million residents. Considering the number of people affected and the violence of Category 4 Gustav and Category 3 Ike, Cuba's low death toll this year is a remarkable achievement.

...

Track forecast for Ike

A trough of low pressure is currently passing to the north of Ike, and this trough has been able to turn Ike north of due west. Ike is now moving west-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue today. By Wednesday, Ike is expected to take a more westerly motion again, as high pressure to the north builds in. As Ike approaches Texas on Friday, a new trough of low pressure is expected to pass to the north, potentially turning Ike to the northwest.

The latest 12Z (8am EDT) computer models have come into much better agreement. All of the major models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Landfall would occur late Friday night or early Saturday morning, and tropical storm force winds would arrive at the coast on Friday morning. Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a "sure thing", and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas. Data from the NOAA jet will go into tonight's 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs, which will be available first thing Wednesday morning. That set of model runs should give us a pretty good idea of where Ike will go. I'm sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation--far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast--including portions of Houston--will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.

Read more: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

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I guess this is on GOM (especially Texan) TV. But for those who are more fixated here...

[happyslug]

1. NOAA called Ike a Category 1 at present, but a 3 by Thursday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204416.shtml?table#contents

According to NOAA it looks like it is aimed at Corpus Christi, but will shift to Houston before it hits the coast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0908W5_sm2+gif/204416W_sm.gif

[lastliberalintexas]

2. Potential for landfall as a Category 4

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_v5d.html?extraprod=v5d#a_topad


Listen to the news and get out if you can. Call and register with 211 if finances are the only thing keeping you from evacuating- please. Stay safe.

[entanglement]

3. Ike managed to retain its structure even after passing Cuba

[Ghost Dog]

4. Bad enough. Could have been a lot worse, for Cuba.

http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID={7025B648-2ECB-4968-BA06-8C72DEAD8D91})&language=EN