Houston Decides to Stare Down Ike Instead of Leave

[Hissyspit]

Source: Associated Press

Houston decides to stare down Ike instead of leave

From Associated Press
September 12, 2008 2:35 AM EDT
HOUSTON - As a gigantic Hurricane Ike steamed through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Texas coast, officials in America's fourth-largest city made a bold decision: Instead of fleeing, residents here would stare down the storm. Homeowners should board up windows, clear the decks of furniture and stock up on drinking water and non-perishable food. But whatever they do, officials warned, residents should not flock to the roadways en masse, creating the same kind of gridlock that cost lives - and a little political capital - when Hurricane Rita threatened Houston in 2005.

It will be, in candor, something that people will be scared of," Houston Mayor Bill White warned. "A number of people in this community have not experienced the magnitude of these winds."

The decision is a stark contrast to how emergency management officials responded to Hurricane Rita in 2005. As the storm closed in three years ago, the region implemented its plan: Evacuate the 2 million people in the coastal communities first, past the metropolis of Houston; once they were out of harm's way, Houston would follow in an orderly fashion.

But three days before landfall, Rita bloomed into a Category 5 and tracked toward the city. City and Harris County officials told Houstonians to hit the road, even while the population of Galveston Island was still clogging the freeways. It was a decision that proved tragic: 110 people died during the effort, making the evacuation more deadly than the eventual Category 4 storm, which killed nine. With the lessons of that disaster, public officials were left with a vexing choice this time. Because Ike's path wasn't clear until just about 48 hours before the storm, officials didn't have a lot of time to make evacuation calls.

Read more: http://enews.earthlink.net/article/top?guid=20080911/48c9e940_3ca6_1552620080912-1652786940

[lapfog_1]

1. Large parts of Houston can flood with a ordinary Thunderstorm.

This may not be the smartest decision.

[Indi Guy]

2. Huston is far enough inland to avoid the storm surge...

Maybe that's the rationale???

[BumRushDaShow]

7. Of course. Philly is also 60 miles from Atlantic City and the Atlantic Ocean

with no mountains in Jersey to "block" (New Jersey is part of the "coastal plain") and with much of that state (and parts of Phila.) at or below sea level. I would agree that it would be ridiculous to evacuate Houston and it was ridiculous for them to have done so for Rita. If it were NYC or Boston, that are actually on the coast, that would be a different story.

[aquart]

8. I dunno about Boston but get out of New York? No way.

We have some designated high grounds to go to, but no way can we leave.

[Ex Lurker]

14. A direct hit on NYC would be very bad

for one thing the subways would flood.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. Exactly.

And I brought it up mainly to point out how ridiculous it was for Houston to order an evacuation during Hurricane Rita when you do have actual cities right up on the ocean that generally wouldn't do it. I can see moving people away from the beaches on say, Long Island (and even moving off the island), but I can't see evacuating a place like Philly, which is the same distance from the ocean as Houston is from the Gulf, if a Hurricane came into coastal Jersey.

[Ex Lurker]

11. I've been watching one of the Houston stations online

and their meterologist keeps saying it may be a Cat 1 or borderline Cat 2 by landfall. Meanwhile I'm seeing on some weather geek discussion boards where it's blowing up overnight and may be on its way to being Cat 3. Houston may wake up to a nasty surprise this morning.

[Ex Lurker]

13. Houston is inland but at the head of Galveston Bay

parts of it are very susceptible to storm surge.

[hobbit709]

4. Houston floods because

1. It was built in a swamp
2. Not too many hills in the area, it's pretty flat

Water can't run off too fast if not much of a slope both on the streets and in the bayous.

[Ex Lurker]

12. also a lot of concrete and the water runs into the Bay

which will be high due to storm surge. Everybody's talking about the surge, but ignoring the inland flooding from rainwater, which won't have anywere to drain.

[Jane Austin]

5. I think part of it is that they are running out of gas.

Coming home tonight on Hwy 290, the traffic just kept coming and coming from Houston.

There were lots of buses, and lots of people stopping for gas.

Going my way - back toward Houston - there was a small convoy of four ambulances with Florida tags. I guess they are ferrying patients from Houston hospitals to those in Austin.

I heard they said people can leave Houston if they want to after the storm.

Um, with flooded cars, debris in the streets, no traffic lights, maybe even bandits?

I don't know if they'll all be able to leave. I just think they realized they couldn't get everybody out.

[hobbit709]

3. Friend of mine lives in Houston

Where he lives is 60 miles from the water. His preparation was stock up on bottled water, take all the lawn furniture and picnic table umbrella and put them in the garage. There were people here in Austin panicking and buying plywood and emergency generators. We're 200 miles from the ocean.

[tavalon]

36. However, Austin does sometimes get the spin off tornadoes

which could impact the electrical grid. It's happened before.

[Dover]

6. I read a report showing that southeastern Houston did receive evacuation notices

and I'm sure many more decided to get out regardless. But there are still a lot of people staying put, and understandably that is a whole lot of people to mobilize so perhaps sitting tight is safer.
But I think they are going to be getting a lot of water and very high winds with the nearly direct
hit that is so far predicted. Wouldn't want to be there.

[dipsydoodle]

9. 'Certain death' warning over Ike

Residents in one area of the Texas coastline have been warned they must evacuate before the arrival of Hurricane Ike or "face certain death".

The National Hurricane Center issued the grave warning to those living in low-lying areas around Galveston Bay.
>
Forecasters warned that because of the size of the storm, the low-lying coastal areas could be hit by a 20ft (6m) high surge of water and 50ft (15m) high waves.

"All neighbourhoods and possibly entire coastal communities will be inundated during the period of the peak storm tide," the National Hurricane Center said in a statement.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7612106.stm

[JeanGrey]

10. Another idiotic decision by local government.

Ike is pushing a storm surge that forecasters believe may equal Katrina due to it's large size, even if it isn't a Cat. 4 or higher. Telling people to wait it out (I'm not even sure they started evac'ing Galveston until yesterday) is very, very, foolish.

[Baclava]

22. Anybody that is in a coastal evac zone that doesn't leave is stupid

The wind category doesn't matter at this point.


Just google up some images of Gulfport or Biloxi, MS - Katrina - to see what storm surge looks like.

[JeanGrey]

37. I just watched people in a car saying "oh we'll be just fine!

All you have to do is make sure you have supplies and you'll be ok". (smacks head).

[DuaneBidoux]

50. I am in Ike (in Houston) now. I was here with Rita. The local officials are smart.

They have done more planning for this than you can believe and put in a great deal of effort on preparation. The coasts and even into the SE suburbs (where I live) have been completely evacuated.

I was in Rita trying to get out. It was an absolute disaster. The reality is, quite simply, that with a metro area of 5.6 million you simply cannot get the people out. It is impossible. Period.

[AngryOldDem]

28. I question this as well....

...especially given how flood-prone Houston is.

If the surge is already coming over the Galveston seawall a little less than 24 hours before landfall, how much worse is it going to get?

[JeanGrey]

38. A lot worse.

[DuaneBidoux]

51. We now know that a 5.6 million metro population evacuation in time is impossible.

I live in Houston (and am there now). If we learned anything about Rita we learned that you simply cannot get a population the size of Houston out in time and most will end up being in their cars at the time the storm finally hits.

[tbyg52]

31. They are only saying that for the inland areas

And it is letting the people on the coast and bay get out unimpeded, which is a good thing. They need to go first.

I don't have any problem with being told to shelter in place - it's what I was going to do anyway, and it's what I did during Rita (not that that one hit us).

As for flooding, I doubt it could be worse than Allison.

[JeanGrey]

39. Good luck.

[tbyg52]

49. Thank you very much!

We've got water, food, gas for the generator, battery radio and TV, we've pulled in everything from the yard, nothing else to do but wait.

I'm going to do the ER news while I wait, unless/until the power goes out - recs appreciated!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=203

I'm going to start posting as soon as I hit "post" on this one.

[iamjoy]

41. What Else Could They Do

You saw what happened during Rita - more people died trying to evacuate than from the actual storm.

I am surprised that in the past 3 years the government has not come up with a plan to evacuate large cities in the event of a disaster (natural or man-made). The Republicans love to scare us about terrorist attacks, but don't really do anything to protect us.

[dogday]

15. They are calling it shelter in place and they are asking

us to stay because those closest to the coast need to get out of the way of the surge. I live on the west side and we are expecting flooding and power outages.. I understand why they are doing it, but anyone in Houston is free to leave if they want...

Wish us all luck here, we are going to need it....


On edit the waves at Galveston are already going over the seawall...

[NOLALady]

20. Stay safe.

We're on the edge of the cone, but we are getting serious wind at this time.

[dogday]

21. Thanks for that, Galveston is already seeing the effects and

after watching the flooding in Galveston already and the waves crashing over the top of the seawall, I am beginning to wonder about the power of Ike.. The storm is still 12-15 hours away and they are already getting this type of weather... I think this one is going to be one they talk about for a while to come...

[txwhitedove]

33. Yep, when weatherman said the hurricane winds could last up to 18-hours

through Houston, it scared me. That's how H.Katrina was, the never-ending wind that shredded everything for hours. Then at the end, when the surge water did come up in the house and my daughter was trying to stuff my ass into the attic through a tiny hole in the ceiling - I saw the wind ripping the tin roof off and said NO way. Hey, did you hear there is a freighter stranded in the Gulf in path of Ike with 22 people and they can't get to them!?

[dogday]

34. Yes, I heard that and the scary scenario is if those people

can't keep control of that ship, it could sail straight into the island as well... It is already windy here in Houston... I have my supplies, and am making as much ice as I can.. I put water in soda bottles and freeze for ice, last a lot longer than cubes...

I can't imagine going through what you did. I am on the second floor with a door to the fire crawl space to the roof.. I think we have that covered, the wind is another thing however...

I hope I will be able to post this time tomorrow, wish us all luck... :hug:

[Lochloosa]

24. Good luck dogday

:toast:

[dogday]

26. Thank you, I think we are going to need it with this

storm after seeing what is happening already in Galveston...

Best wishes and thoughts go out to all Texas Du'ers who may be affected by this storm, please stay safe, stay dry, and stay calm... :hug:

[Seeking Serenity]

35. Where on the West Side? My folks are in Spring Branch.

They're preparing to ride it out.

[dogday]

45. I am maybe a mile from there

Hunter's Creek and we are riding it out as well.. I wish your folks well. Let me know if I can help you in any way.... :hug:

[lavenderdiva]

48. I'm in the Bellaire area

Mr. ld has been working furiously for almost 3 days to secure our home. We had a lot of stuff out in the back, and he's gotten all that cleared out. The winds are definitely picking up, but we haven't seen any rain yet, although I know its coming.

I think we're OK for the time being. Good luck and stay safe to all my fellow DUer Houstonians! :hi:

[txwhitedove]

16. I'm in north Houston, 40-mi from coast so not worried about surge

or even flooding, just worried about high winds. Even if the storm surge was 30+ feet high like Katrina in Bay St. Louis, MS, it couldn't reach 40-mi inland. Electric company went through yards of this neighborhood yesterday trimming trees away from power lines. Evacuation was in full force yesterday morning. and gas stations along highways were already starting to run out of fuel. Overall, local government and people have handled this storm prep calmly and efficiently. Houston's too big to totally evacuate.

:hi:

[Loki]

17. I'm in North Harris County

We're in a neighborhood cul-de-sac with mostly older retirees. We will be staying along with everyone else. Stay safe all you Houstonians. We'll be riding the storm out. See you on the backside txwhitedove!


:hi:

[BumRushDaShow]

19. Good luck to both of you (and anyone else in the area)!

:hug:

I have a BIL down there and know it's like feast or famine with the weather. We're supposed to get some of the leftovers of Ike next week (recently got Gustav remnants too).

[Lochloosa]

23. Good luck and keep you head down.

:toast:

[Javaman]

25. Just try evacuating from the 4th largest US. good luck, you are going to need it. nt

[texpatriot2004]

27. Hang in there Houstonians. Be safe. nm

[pipi_k]

29. I think hurricanes are fascinating, but...

I'm also very respectful of their power.

Anyone who lives in that area...or in any low-lying area prone to hurricanes...should read "Isaac's Storm" by Erik Larson.

It's a frightening account of the hurricane that hit Galveston, TX in 1900


Anyway, a while ago I saw footage of waves crashing in on the beach in that area before the hurricane even gets there. Houses on the beaches, standing on stilts...if there are people still in them, they're insane.

[Baclava]

30. Live-streaming local Houston TV station feeds

Wall-to-wall coverage, literally....check it out

http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html

[MilesColtrane]

32. Estimating maximum potential storm surge for Pasadena and South Houston...

...at 24-30 feet of water.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_surge.html#a_topad

I would get as far away as possible.

[JeanGrey]

40. I would've been gone two days ago. This is foolish.

[Igel]

42. It's reasonable.

There are several layers of evacuation orders.

Those affected by storm surge on the coast are to get out. No traffic jams allowed. Just get out. Those affected by storm surge on the bays are to get out. Some of those include parts of Houston proper. And those might have some truly catastrophic floods. Possibly not, but why risk it? That's Zone A/storm-surge or whatever the official evac map calls it.

Then there are areas likely to flood: Houston has flood paths set up, areas known to be at high-risk for flooding; you can look at the TSARP map to ID them. Some of those areas might have deep water. There are also low-lying areas where water just piles up, usually to the east of Houston, up to and including Hobby airport. Most of those areas will not have deep water. I think zones A and B are to move.

Then there's everywhere else. The real damage there is wind, and few die from that. But if Houston tried to evac everybody, those in Zones A and B would be socked in. That's what happened for Rita, stupidly.

As a result of Allison, a lot of Houston infrastructure is flood-proofed. If it works as planned.

It'll be unpleasant, in a worst-case scenario. But most of Houston'll be just fine.

Time for me to finish getting stuff off the floor and securing all the crap on the patio.

[Baclava]

43. Coast Guard helicopters now rescuing trapped people

Coast Guard has already rescued 16 people and received calls from 150 needing out on the coast that waited too long or rolled the dice and couldn't get out.

They have 3 helicopters going back and forth - non-stop now.....

Galveston 1900 didn't ring a bell?


Houston weather guys are good at explaining Ike better than the Weather Channel people....Ike is a Cat 2 wind storm but a Cat 4/5 storm for waves and storm surge. He's a freak.

Predicting Galveston Island will be totally washed over again.....by a 20 ft wall of water.

[Ganja Ninja]

44. I think we're going to have a lot more dead people from this storm

then we had from Katrina. The center of the storm is still 150 miles from shore and the flooding is already starting. It looks like a lot of people didn't listen to the warnings and evacuate. Bad move on their part.

[icanthelpit]

46. I hope that it works out okay for everyone

I don't live in a hurricane zone, but if I did, I would probably want to stay with my home. Tough choices.

[NOLALady]

47. We're already seeing the surge.

I'm in St Tammany Parish across the lake from New Orleans.

It's not raining but streets are flooding in low lying areas and bridges are closed.

We have a bit of wind, but the sun is shining. It's unreal.