Battle for Congress Suddenly Looks Competitive: Dem generic lead slips to 3 points

[DeepModem Mom]

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the latest USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

As is true for the current structure of voting preferences for president, Democratic voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts (92%), Republican voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Republican candidate (94%), and independents are closely split, with 44% backing the Democrat and 40% the Republican.

The new results come from a Sept. 5-7 survey conducted immediately after the Republican National Convention and mirror the resulting enhanced position of the Republican Party seen in several other indicators. These range from John McCain's improved standing against Barack Obama in the presidential race to improved favorability ratings of the Republicans, to Republican gains in party identification. The sustainability of all of these findings is an open question that polling will answer over the next few weeks.

The positive impact of the GOP convention on polling indicators of Republican strength is further seen in the operation of Gallup's "likely voter" model in this survey. Republicans, who are now much more enthused about the 2008 election than they were prior to the convention, show heightened interest in voting, and thus outscore Democrats in apparent likelihood to vote in November. As a result, Republican candidates now lead Democratic candidates among likely voters by 5 percentage points, 50% to 45%.

If these numbers are sustained through Election Day -- a big if -- Republicans could be expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives....

Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/110263/Battle-Congress-Suddenly-Looks-Competitive.aspx

[icanthelpit]

1. I call BS...Obama's struggling will not impact House and Senate

A few seats are in jeopardy, but no way do we have to worry about control.

[karnac]

5. It depends//

depends how coordinated the repugs coordinate heir congressional races with the presidential.


Explanation...

For instance say for argument's sake Bush was still running, if he TRIED to coordinate his race with the congressional races with his, he would bring them down SEVERELY dooming republican chances.

I would assume MCCain is a non starter. no or little effect.

Let's say PALIN actually inspires independent women and/or republican women to vote rep this year/ in that case, PAalin's presence in certain states/districts could tip the balance over into the republican column where women matter ALOT. considering women are the majority, it ALWAYS matters alot.


PALIN MUST BE DESTROYED!!!

[Tutonic]

12. Agreed. The McCain-Palin ticket have shown the dumbied down

press that its perfectly acceptable to lie.

[progressivebydesign]

15. Obama is not struggling. Where is this meme coming from??

Considering people here have been pushing Internal REpublican Polling firms as evidence that Obama is "struggling."

That "Struggling' meme is a republican talking point.

[kirby]

17. It has nothing to with with Obama, but with Pelosi/Reid. n/t

[alcibiades_mystery]

25. Obama isn't struggling

He's too busy kicking your ass.

[DarthDem]

2. This is Absurd

If anyone needed any further evidence that the Gallup numbers (to say nothing, quite appropriately, of Raspberry) are ridiculous, here you go.

[pat_k]

32. Tragically, it is their failure to impeach that is absurd.

As predicted, failure to impeach is the road to ruin.

Only impeachment can rescue the nation -- and the Democratic Party.

Keep Talking Impeachment.

http://talkingimpeachment.com

[Newsjock]

3. Dennis Kucinich's Truth and Reconciliation Commission

... will someday discover the legions of "journalists," "pollsters," and "pundits" (like Armstrong Williams) who have been directly or indirectly on the payroll and otherwise under the control of this regime, and those who merely acted as such in an attempt to curry favor (financial, sexual, or otherwise) with the regime.

I hope I will live long enough to see that.

[EFerrari]

4. Me, too, Newsjock. Me, too. n/t

[bluestateguy]

6. Can't these pollsters just go away?

Maybe choke on sausage and die or something?

[robcon]

7. These "generic" poll numbers are not predictive.

Most House elections are only nominally elections. Most reps will have token or no opposition this fall.

This kind of poll just shows the tenor of the electorate, and just gives a head's up on the mood of the country. If I'm not mistaken, the nomination of Sarah Palin will be a defining moment of the 2008 campaign when the histories are written. The election has become a toss-up (too small a difference for polls to identify a clear winner.)

The debates will determine the outcome, IMO.

[CatholicEdHead]

10. Exactly

Minnesota is positioned to pick up one more DFL seat this fall (Ramsted's old district MN-3). MN 6 (Michelle Bachmann) also has a fair chance to be driven out of office, and MN-1 will be close but Tim Walz is expected to be reelected.

[HomerRamone]

8. Your Do-Nothing Strategy worked great, Nancy (and Harry) nt

[ramapo]

13. Two years of nothing

Yes they've been saddled with the veto threat but the Democrats have done nothing to distinguish themselves. Neither leader is very appealing either, not that the republicans were any better.

[timeoutofjoint]

29. When she said Impeachment was off the table, I knew we were in trouble.

[Ian David]

9. Harry Fucking Reid and Nancy Fucking Pelosi. n/t

[Winterblues]

11. Sounds like Republicans are buying Mccains message about change

IOW they know he is a Lying Mutha. What can keeping all those Republican crooks and thugs in office have to do with Change? Republicans are some really screwed up people..

[AndyTiedye]

20. They Would CHANGE the US Into a Theocracy and a Police State

[EndElectoral]

14. Amazing. A moose huntin' creationist can swing the votes of so many. That is scary.

[struggle4progress]

16. R = W! R = W! R = W!

[kirby]

18. GIVE 'EM THE HOUSE, HARRY! n/t

[AndyTiedye]

19. Arrrrrrrgggggghhhhhhh!!!!

:cry:

[classysassy]

21. We the people

can't be that stupid,as to return the thugs to leadership.

[liberalpress]

22. Please. Its Gallup!

99 out of 100 republicans polled said the Republicans would take congress

[timeoutofjoint]

23. This can not be true.

[cyberpj]

24. GALLUP Continuing to set us up to accept another stolen election!

Jesus!

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

26. Survey's over a week old

[stlsaxman]

30. Good catch! Polled at the height of the R Conv bump.

there's no way it's accurate.

[The Stranger]

27. The Nancy Pelosi Disaster/Traitor played to lose, and that is just what she'll do.

She forfeited the single best political leverage any Speaker of the House has had in history, and held the nation down while the GOP raped it over and over and over again.

[LeftishBrit]

28. Fuckfuckfuckfuckfuck...

hope not!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[pat_k]

31. As predicted, the "let's all get along with war criminals" strategy fails.

Every Member of the Democratic caucus who submitted to Pelosi's "off the table" edict has been doomed to impotent whining and complaining.

And now they are whining that they just haven't been whining loud enough to "get their message out."

Hey Dems! I've got news. America reads the message you are sending loud and clear. Your failure to impeach says Bush is right and/or Democrats are weak political hacks who refuse to fight for the principles they give lip service to.

Every member who opposes impeachment is a full partner in the fascist slap-down of the countless Americans -- the scholars, government officials, military officers, public figures, and ordinary citizens -- who have been sounding the alarm and demanding justice.

It's time to stop looking for some substance-less magic "message." It's time to "get real." The duty to impeach is inescapable. All the straws; all the rationalizations for inaction, have been falling one-by-one.

Now that the last one -- the lunatic notion that failure to impeach is their ticket to the White House -- has collapsed, perhaps they'll finally be capable of actually hearing The Truth.

Maybe they are too far gone. Maybe not. All that is sure is that we cannot let them off the hook.

Keep Talking Impeachment.

http://talkingimpeachment.com

[droidamus2]

33. No way, no how

The polling companies have admitted that after the Repub convention they 'adjusted' their polling samples to show a shift toward voters 'identifying' themselves as a Republican. Read this to mean they started polling more Republicans and less Democrats in their samples. So are the polls showing a shift from Democrat to Republican or are they just rigged. Gee I really can't decide. Of course this ignores the fact that the Democrats have registered way more new voters than the Republicans and that they usually lead in generic races and party identification. Another thing on polls is that their formulas for who they poll and what it means are based on prior voting patterns so if there is any big shift in a given election i.e. more young people voting, a major shift in party registration or a large amount of dissatisfaction with a particular regime their polls don't reflect it. Personally I think the Democrats and Obama/Biden are way ahead especially the way the Wall Street melt down is going. The media wants it to appear close because it is good for their ratings and keeps people watching. They will play this 'its close' story until after the final debate and then because there won't be that much time left before the election you will start to see Obama's lead widen rather quickly.