Australian scientist warns superflu pandemic 1,000 times worse than SARS

[rodbarnett]

SYDNEY (AFP) - An Australian scientist involved in the World Health Organisation fight against SARS in China said Friday a new pandemic resulting from bird flu combining with a human flu could be a thousand times worse than SARS.


Professor John MacKenzie of Brisbane's University of Queensland, said the chances of a new pandemic strain arising are still ''very small,'' but the chances of a new pandemic starting now are greater than at any time since the last one in 1968.

''Things are happening with the bird flu which are unprecedented and we have far more outbreaks and in more countries than is usual,'' he told AFP. ''I think this is the worst scenario possible and it does concern me enormously.''

He described Severe Acute Respiratory Sydnrome (SARS), which killed some 700 people in Asia, as ''a wake-up call'' about what could happen with influenza.

''What I'm saying is that a new pandemic strain of flu, should it arise, would be a thousand times worse than SARS,'' he said.

http://www.mb.com.ph/MAIN200402061473.html

[JailForBush]

1. George W. Bush's Response:

Bring it on!

[Devils Advocate NZ]

2. More scaremongering from the people who brought you SARS (tm)...

This is such bullshit. Just like SARS was. These "scientists" are trying to generate enough fear of a pandemic to force governments to massively increase their funding.

It's a con.

Influenza kills tens of thousands of people EVERY YEAR, but THAT is not screamed from the roof tops. But when 700 die from SARS that is supposed to be some kind of apocalyptic event?

Now they are hyping this bird flu. It's utter bollocks.

[Whoa_Nelly]

3. Provide back-up for statements?

Can you provide information that backs up seeking funding and that scientists and WHO are scamming? Am interested to learn more, if this is the case.

IMO, the fact that this flu 1) has jumped from animal to human transsmission is significant, and 2) even though avian flu has been seen in the recent past, it's significant now when considering how quickly it has spread to many countries, unlike SARS which was pretty confined to certain borders and age groups, and 3)has enough global potential for the need to act quickly in defeating its spread.


Perhaps some reading here will help you understand better the global implications of the avian flu:

Avian influenza - fact sheet
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_15/en/

Avian influenza frequently asked questions
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/

[Devils Advocate NZ]

13. SARS is the best evidence for what I am talking about.

The EXACT same kind of bullshit was being said then about SARS as is being said now about this bird flu.

If you dig through the archive here on DU, you will see that I posted many times back then about how SARS was being blown out of proportion and that it wouldn't amount to much at all. Bet many here, just like you now, fell for the hype and said that it was a major threat and that it could be just like the 1918 flu pandemic.

So, what exactly happened? 700 died, and 8000 were infected, FAR LESS than die EVERY YEAR from the flu. And SARS was CLEARLY more infectious than this virus. So what is all the hoopla about this time?

[Whoa_Nelly]

19. Media references

IMO, don't support the fact that the avian flu is a species jump and the sooner contained, the less cases globally. I find it difficult to compare SARS and avian flu. I agree that there was much hoopla regarding SARS, but the avian flu is different and has great potential to mutate with current human influenza strains, which could render the current avian flu vaccines impotent.

Any flu that is showing to move as quickly as the avian flu is moving, and given global travel, needs to be addressed.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

36. Please don't use logic in ypour arguments...

...it just confuses some folks.

[treepig]

46. well, we're almost there already, according to you

one thousand times worse would be 700,000 deaths. you say there are already "tens of thousands" - so that means a year with 10x as many cases as normal would meet the criteria. i say that's not a huge stretch at all.

[reprobate]

4. I suggest you google "1918 influenza"

It killed 50 million people worldwide. And that was before the population density grew out of hand.

I've been saying for years that out masses of poor, without health care insurance is a festering mass that is ripe for some epidemic to take hold. If so, it will spread to the rest of the population before anyone is aware of it.

Of course, those who survive will have a much less crowded world to enjoy.

[rodbarnett]

5. here is one - How flu jumped a species to kill millions

How flu jumped a species to kill millions
By Mark Henderson
Lessons learnt from 1918-19 pandemic could help scientists to prevent another outbreak



THE “Spanish flu” virus that killed more than 20 million people in 1918-19 may have originated in birds then jumped the species barrier to human beings, something that scientists fear could happen with the avian flu outbreak in Asia.
Research by a British-led team of scientists who mapped the structure of the virus sheds important light on one of the world’s biggest pandemics. It has revealed the mechanism by which the killer flu infected human cells, providing valu-able clues for experts monitoring the danger posed by modern strains of the virus.



Surveillance centres will use the findings to analyse new variants of influenza as they emerge in bird populations to determine whether they have the potential to enter human cells in the same way and start a pandemic similar to the 1918 outbreak.

They will do little, however, to help to predict the threat posed by the present strain, which has led to 15 deaths, because it has a different structure from its 1918 cousin. In the study, an international team led by Sir John Skehel, director of the Medical Research Council’s National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR) in London, analysed the spiky proteins that the influenza virus uses to bind to human cells. Details of their work are published today in the journal Science.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8122-991633,00.html

[Devils Advocate NZ]

14. 1918 was VERY different.

Firstly, understanding of disease transmission was very poor, and treatment even poorer. For example, in some countries oxygen booths were set up so people could breathe fresh oxygen in the belief that this would help prevent the disease. In reality it was a source for even greater numbers of infections becuase of the lack of sterilisation and the sheer numbers of people who used them.

If they had had the same knowledge in 1918 as we have today, I am sure that that flu would not have been anywhere near as deadly as it was.

But face facts, influenza kills tens of thousands of people EVERY YEAR and no big deal is made of it. The fact that you have to go back to 1918, nearly CENTURY ago, to find an epidemic of the sort that we are being hyped into fearing is a telling point, in my opinion.

[Occulus]

24. If you keep this attitude,

you will most likely be one of the first to succumb. I truly hope you change your tune if this does get out of hand.

I'm already ready and have a nice, out-of-the-way, subsistance farm to run to if the shit hits the fan. Do you?

[Bonobo]

65. 'Subsistence farm' -lol!

Oh yeah, I'm sure THAT will save you! Not!

[Occulus]

85. It's more than that.

It's the only term I could come up with that would conjure the idea I was trying to get across. Like I think I described, I can't say too much about this person or his/her preparations. In reality, the land he/she sits on is a rather huge slice of undeveloped, arable land.

He/she has a barn with several goats, for example, as well as geese, chickens, and a very large garden. This person has had estimated for him/her that the food supply there is enough to feed around sixty people for several months, and that's just the food on hand right now.

Trust me on this; I've seen it, and it's a lot more impressive than he/she is willing to allow me to describe. And yes, it really is also that hush-hush. And remote.

See, during an epidemic, outside contact is a bad thing.

[Devils Advocate NZ]

96. Better hope that none of the people who turn up are carriers then eh?

I mean if it is so out of the way, medical assitance must be rather unlikely huh?

[Occulus]

118. That's one of his/her worries.

He/she is keeping the invitations there to a very low number- less than ten. And all people he/she knows well.

[amazona]

127. i think your friend is scamming you, no offense

All land, at least in the U.S. which is sufficiently arable and well-watered, is occupied and in use already. There are various period episodes of silly season hysteria, where people buy "subsistence" land -- which really wouldn't support them and which, in the event of a catastrophe, they couldn't reach anyway. Then they realize they have to pay taxes on this land, and they're screwed when they learn that the resale value is basically zip. A big problem with these "bug-out" places is good old-fashioned lack of water.

I'm afraid I've noticed that whenever bug-out hidey-holes are being touted, it's always because someone is selling something.

In the event of "Captain Trips," unless your friend was already living on the land and could somehow keep EVERYONE from accessing the land, the whole reason for having "bug-out" territory would be moot. His ten "bestest buddies" moving in would bring disease along with them, assuming they could reach the "bug out" area at all, which is a fairly generous assumption in a case of total societal breakdown.

I'm sure your friend is well aware that "bird flu" and "avian flu" is something that hits the poultry industry on practically a yearly basis and is no cause for alarm. We have excellent controls for containing it. It has been a tough year indeed for the poultry industry, with Newscastle's Disease causing almost the total eradication of the southern California poultry population, and there has been a good bit of avian flu around. However, the threat is not to human life. The threat is to our pocketbooks. Have you tried to buy eggs lately? They are two-three times the cost from last year in my area. I'm afraid chicken will go the same way.

We are all supposed to go, whew, at least we didn't die, when we can't afford to buy basic food like eggs, chicken, and beef. Well, I shouldn't say "we." I'm sure you and your friends and most people here will be unaffected. However, with my income in the high four figures, the soaring price of something as crucial to the diet as EGGS is really an issue for me. So I'm definitely worried about bird flu. But not because I intend to spend my limited funds on silly season stuff. But because I need to put food in my mouth. Every day.

The constant hits on our food safety and the resulting soaring prices are getting extremely scary.

As for your "Friend" -- well -- my contacts in the poultry industry are not heading for the hills, and they're not embarrassed to say that they work for major poultry suppliers like Sanderson Farms, so maybe since they aren't trying to sell me anything, except chicken, forgive me if I take them a tad more seriously than someone who wants to conceal their identity and not even provide any proof that they are real. Let me be clear: I respect your posts and I realize that YOU are well-meaning and think this person is sincere, but I honestly believe you are a victim of a hoax. And quite likely for profit. How much money have you spent prepping for this event which is not going to happen? Even a hurricane lantern is $5 or so. And then you have to buy the oil.

[Devils Advocate NZ]

95. I tell you what...

In 5 months time, when this has all blown over, get back to me and tell me about that farm again...

[NickB79]

52. It would be FAR worse today than in 1918

From the viewpoint of total overall deaths, the fact is that there are many times more people in the world today as there were in 1918. It would mean that even if a new flu strain was only half as deadly as the 1918 one, it would still kill tens of millions more than ever seen before. Also, the vast majority of people around the world live in societies where current medical technology is not available. You won't see poor people living in the slums of Brazil getting treatment at hospitals; you'll see them dying in the streets. Furthermore, you fail to take into account the 50 million people around the world who's immune systems are severely challenged by HIV. And, surprise surprise, about 3/4 of them live in Africa and Southeast Asia where their standard of living is pitiful and they live in slums.

You don't have to go back a century to find a pandemic, just look back over the last 30 yrs and observe HIV. More people have died from HIV than from the 1918 flu, and it is still spreading. Even if you ignore HIV, the reason people have to go back 100 yrs to find another major pandemic is because numerous factors have to come together before it reaches epidemic levels. In 1918, the millions of troops being moved around the globe to fight in WWI allowed for rapid transmittion of the virus. Today we see even faster potential spread, with even more people, through air travel. Those troops were also stressed from months, if not years, from fighting in horrible conditions in the trenches. Today we see similarly stressed populations in Africa and Southeast Asia, where HIV is still spreading. These are both sparks that could easily ignite a worldwide pandemic.

My basic points are that most people can't afford medical help, many of those who can't afford the help are further endangered by HIV infections, and the required conditions to allow for a massive spread of a disease are all present. I wouldn't be surprised at all if a 1918-style flu could kill 100 million people worldwide, if not even more.

[WannaJumpMyScooter]

57. More people have died from HIV than the Spanish Flu?

I don't think so.... many now consider the death toll from Spanish Flu at 40million, based on not including China, India, and most of Russia in the traditional "more than 20 million" number.

Just how many has HIV killed?

[NickB79]

64. I was going off the 20 million deaths number

So far approximately 20-25 million have died from HIV over the last 30 yrs, and I was basing my claim on the commonly-quoted 20 million deaths from the Spanish flu. Also, there are currently around 40 million still alive but infected with HIV. I know, I know, they're not part of the death toll, yet. Considering that we're still at least a decade away from any kind of an HIV cure or even a vaccine, though, it's only a matter of time before HIV surpasses the 1918 flu.

[Fovea]

101. That was 30 million deaths worldwide in a smidgeon over one year

and that is the conservative figure that my instructor in
'Epidemics and the Rise of the American City' quoted.

[Fovea]

56. Yes, 1918 was very different.

It took a week and a half to get across the United States on a fast train, and Around the world in 80 days was a popular work of recent fiction.

The two anti-virals that might be effective against avian flu probably don't have 250 million courses (as opposed to single doses).

Really, a dangerous and virulent flu like spanish flu could kill a billion or three around the world instead of 30 Million. Why, becuase we have far more mechanisms to spread the diseaase rapidly, and only marginally better supportive treatment for severe viral infection.

Sure, books like The Stand are fiction, but our ability to mount a even a 19th century medical response worldwide would break down very quickly in the face of a few million cases in the first month. Note how we have been doing against AIDS in Africa. Then remember that AIDS is not a particularly virulent virus.

[Occulus]

91. Want a cookie for that?

Well put.

[spinbaby]

6. Nonsense

The very reason SARS fatalities were so low is because of massive mobilization to isolate the disease. Left unchecked, it could very well have turned into a global pandemic--it's a very nasty, very infectious disease.

[Terran]

7. You don't know what you're talking about

SARS had a low deathrate, among the elderly and very young only. This bird flu kills healthy young adults. It could very well become what they say it could become--another pandemic like 1918.

[rodbarnett]

8. Link - Bird flu out of control in Asia

By Hanoi
February 7, 2004


Three UN agencies yesterday admonished Asian countries infected with bird flu for being too slow in sounding the alarm.

It said the epidemic, which has killed 18 people, was still not under control.

The virus has ravaged poultry flocks in 10 countries and spread in China, which has the world's biggest poultry population. Authorities there said they faced a tough fight to defeat the disease and state television reported that the virus may have spread to 13 of China's 31 provinces and regions

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/02/06/1075854060744.html

comment : PETA would have a field day with the picture on this article

[Devils Advocate NZ]

16. Yep, and that is what they said about SARS too...

In fact we were told at the time that SARS was highly infectious, and had a much higher fatality rate than normal influenza. We were told that if the outbreak got out of hand we could all be dying within months...

The reality was that modern controls shut it down faster than even the flu, which kills tens of thousands each and every year.

Yet everytime a new virus shows up, we are told "it could be 1918 all over again"... And what happens?

On edit: I had to add this becuase I find it hilarious. Two different people reply to me trying to refute what I said:

Nonsense

The very reason SARS fatalities were so low is because of massive mobilization to isolate the disease. Left unchecked, it could very well have turned into a global pandemic--it's a very nasty, very infectious disease.
spinbaby Post #6

You don't know what you're talking about

SARS had a low deathrate, among the elderly and very young only. This bird flu kills healthy young adults. It could very well become what they say it could become--another pandemic like 1918.
dirk #7

Two completely OPPOSITE viewpoints BOTH being used as an attmpt to prove me wrong. One says that SARS was VERY DEADLY and could have been 1918 all over again, the other says that SARS was nothing and this bird flu could be 1918 all over again.

Both viewpoints are completely and utterly WRONG. :)

[Media_Lies_Daily]

38. In your opinion, I guess that ...

...the Chinese blockading Beijing to control SARS was just being being overly cautious, is that correct?

And that Hong Kong forcibly sending some segments of their population into internment camps was just plain silly as far as your concerned, right?

And that dozens of countries closing their borders to people of certain nationalities was just reacting to "scare tactics"?

You can believe whatever you want and be as skeptical as you want, but please don't try to convince others not to take precautions...you're just not going to get very far.

[Devils Advocate NZ]

97. Did I say that?

No, I said that talk of a "1918 pandemic" is overblown hype for the very reason that those controls were put in place for SARS. We have a global system that deals with such epidemics very efficiently, and even with a disease that had no cure or immunisation, it was kept to ONLY 8000 cases of which 700 died.

No amount of fear mongering will change the fact that modern controls are very effective at containing disease, and thus trying to scare the population with talk of millions of deaths does NOTHING.

The ONLY reason I can see for it is ratings for news organisations and funding for health organisations. In other words its just like the terror alerts - fear mongering for a purpose that has NOTHING to do with the actual cause of the fear.

[Terran]

43. Not exactly an informed approach, now is it?

In fact we were told at the time that SARS was highly infectious, and had a much higher fatality rate than normal influenza. We were told that if the outbreak got out of hand we could all be dying within months...

I don't recall any observations that SARS had a high mortality rate. In fact, it was consistently reported at having only about a 2%-5% mortality rate. And the death rate has little to do with "modern controls". Public health measures control the spread of such a virus, not its virulence.

The bird flu reportedly has a preliminary mortality rate of around 75%*. That means that approximately 15 times as many people who come into contact with it will die as died from SARS.

*http://stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,2798403a7144,00.html

Both viewpoints are completely and utterly WRONG.

Care to prove that statement? All you've done is call people scaremongers and call the information bullshit. Are you capable of providing a more substantial refutation that that?

[Snow]

48. Be careful here...

a 2-5% mortality rate may sound low, but as an epidemiologist I can tell you that's fairly high, and fairly worrisome. It's probably a bit early though to think that we have stable mortality estimates for this avian flu - at least among people...

[Terran]

63. I agree

I wasn't trying to minimize how bad SARS was at all. After all, 2% of the population of the US is, what, about 5 million people?

According to the article I posted above, you would be right, it's too early to tell about the actual mortality rate of the bird flu--the 75% figure is taken from known figures, but it's too soon to know how many people actually have it. But it does appear to be much higher than SARS--that's what worries me.

[Devils Advocate NZ]

98. Actually SARS had a nearly 9% mortality rate...

hence the 8000 infections and 700 deaths, which is far in excess of the mortality rate of normal flu, which runs around 2%.

As for the "preliminary" mortality rate of the bird flu, firstly you a talking about approximately 25 cases world wide. This is far too low a number to gain any significant information. Also, although bird flu has been reported in 10 or so countries and millions of birds, there have been VERY FEW cases of human infection.

This is just the same as SARS, its not what it IS that were are being told is dangerous, but what it MIGHT become. For either SARS or the bird flu to become a major threat that would have to mutate. So we are basing all the scare mongering on what MIGHT happen.

Let's just say, I think your chances of getting bird flu are significantly less that you choking to death on your breakfast cereal.

Of course, choking on breakfast cereal COULD be just like 1918 with MILLIONS of DEATHS world wide should...

[Terran]

115. It has ALREADY 'mutated'

I'm not sure if 'mutate' is the correct word, but the bird flu has already made the jump from birds to humans. That is all it had to do to pose a major threat. If it 'mutates' again, that just makes it harder to create a vaccine, that's all.

[Snow]

120. No, the jump from fowl to humans is not that unusual....

nor does it pose a major threat, if you remember the bird flu outbreak in south China a few years ago. To get an outbreak going in humans, you have to have people-to-people transmission, and that's uncertain at the moment. If we had a major problem, the question of human to human transmission would be known by now.

[Fovea]

9. Google Spanish influenza

1918-1920

He is literally correct. Spanish influenza killed 30 - 50 million world wide in about a year. I knew a gentleman from Kansas City who was the only survivor in his family, and he had six siblings.

That is not fear mongering. And remember, we did not have air travel in 1919.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

12. My grandfather was teaching school in North Dakota

during the 1918 epidemic.

My grandmother told me that when the flu hit that particular town, two young teachers just out of college died, which surprised and upset everyone, since it was so unusual for someone in the prime of life to die of illness after surviving the childhood diseases.

After a while someone noticed that a certain farm family hadn't been heard from for a while. The neighbors went out to check and found the whole family of five dead.

The scary part is that this was a small town in North Dakota whose only contact with the outside world was a train once a day.

[Fovea]

55. Here is what I wrote about my Neighbor

http://65.64.114.185/poetry/FLU.txt

Give it a try.

[pink_poodle]

11. "warnings" like this always strike me as........................

bollocks, but recently they dug up the Spanish Flu from 1918 - who knows why. They did. And when I heard about than, I immediately though to myself - here comes a major pandemic. Now why would I be so suspicious. hmmm...... But you are right to think that we are all being manipulated. Yes we are.

[Stuckinthebush]

18. My grandmother became totally deaf due to her 1918 flu treatments

She survived, but the quinine killed her auditory nerves.

Her stories were gruesome. Children dead within days, whole families wiped out. It was bad stuff.

The problem is that scientist are finding that this new "bird" flu has a similar genetic makeup of the 1918 "bird" flu. Since no vaccine has ever been made that would protect against this genetic makeup, if this flu gets out of hand it could kill millions again.

The good news is that the genetic sequence is known, and that a vaccine can be developed. It has to be done now, however, and that is why world health groups are urgently meeting to make sure that they 1) understand the strain of bird flu, 2) can reliably connect the genetic sequence to the 1918 flu, 3) make estimates on mortality rates, and 4) determine the best way to fight against this strain using vaccines and isolation techniques.

This is not bullshit. It is very, very real. Let's hope that the scientists can pull it together before this thing gets out of hand.

[Devils Advocate NZ]

102. BOLLOCKS!

The problem is that scientist are finding that this new "bird" flu has a similar genetic makeup of the 1918 "bird" flu. Since no vaccine has ever been made that would protect against this genetic makeup, if this flu gets out of hand it could kill millions again.

Scientist have said NO SUCH THING. In fact they have specifically said that this bird flu is VERY DIFFERENT from the 1918 flu virus.

See, this is the kind of bullshit I am talking about. It happened with SARS, and its going to happen again. When it is all over, there will be very few deaths, and a whole lot of people believing utter lies.

[Occulus]

104. ...which is why

people need to constantly look into this, unless it becomes obvious that it is indeed very, very bad. A disaster.

Never ever rely completely on initial reports when it's so early; keep looking for information for as long as you can until the outbreak is over. A lot of people panicked over SARS for no really good reason. It very well may be that this is the case again. The question you must ask yourself is this: can we afford to be catastrophically wrong?

When speaking of diseases that kill, we should act as prarie dogs in the desert. Heads up, looklooklooklook, goodsafe runeat. Or, looklooklooklook ohshit gottago, whatever the reaction that's needed.

[Terran]

117. see this thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=349644

What stuckinthebush said is partially true--the 1918 flu strain is now seen as bird-derived; it just means there are similar issues, potentially, not identical gentic make-up.

So I suggest you refrain from screaming 'bollocks' until you do a little reading.

[Devils Advocate NZ]

124. I read that thread earlier...

In fact it is what I was refering to. But it seems YOU need to read before you post. If you reread my other post you will see that I quoted stuckinthebush as saying "this new "bird" flu has a similar genetic makeup of the 1918 "bird" flu."

That is false, as was said in the thread you refered to. So why are you attacking ME, rather than stuckinthebush? Is it because you would rather defend untruths that support your position, than face facts?

[Occulus]

22. not true

and you SHOULD be very, very worried and indeed, prepared to bolt to an unpopulated area. I have it on good authority, based upon knowledge that is not yet public, that this flu is already in the US and could be 70-80 percent communicable and 70-80 percent FATAL if it makes that jump.

In such a case, Captain Trips would no longer be fiction, but prophetic.

[Whoa_Nelly]

23. Please share your sources

[Occulus]

26. I can't.

My sources are too damn far up the chain to want their idents known. Sorry.

I can tell you what he/she said. He/she said to me to be watching for news reports trickling out in the next week or so. News will trickle, and you won't know how bad it really is until it's rather late in the day.

He/she also tells me that ALL the things we're doing right now related to bio/chemical terror are really only window dressing; this is "The Big One". Why else would * NOT fund decontamination technology research, as is elsewhere in LBN today?

Answer: because it's an exercise in futility at this point. I really, really hate to become what some would call a 'fearmonger', but dammit, this is too serious to not react swiftly and strongly.

Here is what I would advise, if you haven't already done so:

1. Prep a 'bugout kit'. First aid kit, fkashlight, batteries, and a good county map are a must. You will NOT be able to rely on the internet once this starts; buy your maps. Get a repair manual for your car if you don't already have one.

2. canned/dried foods are a good thing; anything "just add water" will also work. A water purification kit would also be good. Energy bars are great for a snack, but by all means stay away from sweets and junk. Get some dried, homemade beef jerky if you can find some that didn't come from a factory farm. edited to add: fruits are alright, but don't rely on them for energy as they have a high sugar content. Oh, and apples and oranges will keep in this cold for some time...just in case you find yourself in a tent or something.

3. Find someone you trust that's a homebody who lives in a rural area. Rural does NOT mean three miles out of town, but as deepwoods as you can get, far away from any major metro area. If they live on a farm, great- find out if they butcher anything themselves, and offer farm work for food and shelter. Once machines start to give out and can't be repaired (because most of the machanics are dead), every pair of willing and able hands will become a commodity.

Hey, what can I say? This source has been ahead of DU in the news area for some time. One reason I can't offer a name is because he/she is under an umbrella of official protection. I'm sorry; I can't say more.

Just keep in mind: the timetable we're talking about before all this starts to trickle out in the media is about eight days or so. IF you start seeing ominous reports in the news regarding bird flu around next weekend, you'll know I was right.

Unfortunately.

[pink_poodle]

29. And of course the antibiotics, etc. are now not working.................

for us anymore. Well, you can't say we weren't warned and you can't say society as a whole, just did not care to get themselves prepared. Some of us are sort of prepared for holding out for a week or two, but beyond that, folks in cities really don't have the resources for survival. Your advice is good.

[NickB79]

53. Thats the thing: antibiotics have NEVER worked against a virus

Viral infections are totally immune to any and all antibiotics ever created; only bacterial infections respond to antibiotics. Only substances like protease inhibitors, AZT, and interferons have been proven to battle viral infections, and all of these are very expensive, time-consuming to produce, have nasty side-effects and don't even work against all viruses. People have for so many years put confidence in antibiotics as the solution to any infection, but so few people seem to realize just how limited their uses are.

[pink_poodle]

30. Also wanted to add that if you have cash in banks....................

to get lots of it out so you have it on hand. The machines will not be operating once society falls. Also to have supplies of gasoline and propane for BBQ's too. Batteries, and other sources of power/heat/water/light/food/medicines/necessities.

[mouse7]

70. Just like Y2K.

I could get access to my money for years after Y2K. And all the crashing airplanes and then the collapse of society. Y2K was horrible.

[Occulus]

87. I hate to say it,

but only ignorant and reactionary people were truly worried about that one. Those of us who bothered to do our research and connect a few dots very quickly realized how utterly harmless the bug really was.

This is a different situation than the Y2K bug was. This one has already killed, and likely will again and again. Our only hope is that it's not as contagious as it might be.

I would like nothing more than for this to end with you all pointing and laughing at me. I'd much rather have that than find myself mourning the loss of all you DUers because I failed to give, at least, some kind of heads up.

[Snow]

33. OK, guy - we'll wait 2 weeks, and if nothing's going we'll

expect a report from you. Fair?

[Occulus]

84. Totally fair.

I fully intended to do exactly that, I just forgot to mention it in my post.

Hey, my source could very well be completely wrong; I'll admit that. But when the people he/she get his/her information from wear several stars and decorations, one tends to listen well. :)

I swear to you all (and hold me to it if you feel the need), if stuff does not go down I'll find a way to post a pic of me eating a plateful of crow. :)

But please, please don't wait that long to start getting ready. Everone can use a Coleman lantern at some point; it's always good to have, say, a few water purification tablets lying around (hell- carry one in your fanny pack or whatever in case you get a nasty cut while hiking). Extra food in the house is always a good thing, and every home should have a decent first aid kit.

My point is that these things are just simple common sense if you have the resources to buy them, and they're really not all that expensive. Sure, I spent some extra cash on some of it, but you don't have to. The single most important thing you should have is five or more people living within one hundred miles that you could trust with your life if need be- or at least that many very close personal friends. Even getting to know your neighbor will help a lot.

These are just a few things that could make a disaster situation that much easier to cope with if one ever happens. Just don't forget that this time, it could well be the real deal.

[Snow]

121. I can see where you're coming from on this,

and appreciate your concern, but unless those stars and decorations are from service with the Commissioned Public Health Service Corps, I'd be a bit skeptical. You notice the original message on this thread got started based on a report by a perfectly qualified scientist who's a damn good microbiologist. So he's telling us what the bug is capable of based on its makeup and on lab information. That's useful, but it's a couple of degrees removed from population dynamics, from epidemiology. There's sometimes a tendency among bench scientists to look down upon population scientists, but those guys can screw up because they don't understand the complications of disease spread in populations. In short, if your military sources have some epidemiologists to talk with, I'd be more worried than if they don't.....

By the way, I don't really want to see you eating crow - does it taste like chicken? - but a post saying 'ooops, sorry' would be nice, although frankly I think your advice is not harmful in the same way the anti-vaccination posters are. And I've never heard an 'ooops, sorry' out of any of that crowd.

[mouse7]

69. And don't forget your Y2K hardened computer while you're at it n/t

[Occulus]

86. I never bothered with worrying about that one.

I know a good deal about computers, and thus knew it was complete bunk when I first heard about it and looked up the bug. None of the computers in my home were vulnerable, and I could tell from the nature of the bug- really merely a programming oversight and a seriously stupid one at that- that there would be no disasters arising from it.

Y2K wasn't any kind of concern to me at all. This 'bird flu' most certainly is, since I work in a postal plant. I work with mail from all over the world every single day. This is a very big deal to me.

[Devils Advocate NZ]

103. I've book marked this post...

I will remind everyone of this when this all blows over. :)

[Occulus]

114. I seriously hope you're right and I'm not.

I don't think I've ever wanted to me more wrong about anything.

[Throckmorton]

126. Shall I store this stuff with my Y2K survival kit?

So, who wants to live forever anyway?

[NNN0LHI]

10. We are past due for a pandemic. So what are we supposed to do about it?

Get all worried or something? Wait until it hits, and then we can worry about it.

Don

[Occulus]

27. By that time,

you or your family could already have it and not know it... until you've already infected dozens of people.

Want a reason for matial law? A good reason? Here it is.

[NNN0LHI]

35. So what do you suggest? I should go out protesting pandemics or something?

What do you suggest doing? Give some proposals to avoid the inevitable?

Don

[Occulus]

40. read my post above n/t

[Occulus]

92. I meant my long post, #26, I think. n/t

[bahrbearian]

42. Your right !

Like we need more to worry about, I got it from a higher up that an earth quake is due to hit any day now, how do I prepare for that. Stock up on food and supplies ???

[Occulus]

49. Yes.

Prepare yourself for general chaos. You won't be able to go shopping, so I would recommend you find a food source.

Get water purification tablets; they could well save your life.

[chasqui]

82. You sound JUST like John Titor.

Should I get a bicycle also?

[Occulus]

88. Probably. I've had one since I was 8. You?

And, um, I didn't get this stuff from reading his crap. That's fiction; this is reality. BIG difference.

Yes, I've read Titor's fictions, and in fact I was drawing an eerie similarity in my mind between the two while I was listening to him/her giving me info today. But I'm not making this up. I'm only the messenger here. And like I posted elsewhere, if he/she happens to end up being wrong, I'll find a way to post a nice pic of me eating a plateful of crow.

I would like nothing better than to be completely wrong. I'll happily endure whatever anyone wants to throw at me if that ends up being the case.

[chasqui]

110. How about you riding a tall Velocipede?

[Occulus]

116. a WHAT?

Wow, that sounds.... personal.

And kinky.

[chasqui]

123. You sick mofo

This is a velocipede

Imagine falling off of that one.

[Occulus]

128. Ow.

[SheilaT]

15. Why am I being reminded of the hysteria

back in the fall about the current flu season?

Remember all the panicked postings here about how terrible it was going to be, and how many of us would get sick and die, and how EVERYONE MUST GET A FLU SHOT IMMEDIATELY NO EXCEPTIONS?

Flu, what flu? Seems to me that the flu season just about over was no worse than usual, perhaps milder than many. Of course, during flu season nearly everyone self-diagnoses any illness whatsoever as flu.

It's the hysteria that's so dumb. Yes, emerging diseases and new flu variants are always a potential threat, which is why the CDC and its counterparts around the world are so crucial to the monitoring and handling of diseases.

These days we know so much more about simple hygiene. Hand-washing alone saves lives. In the first world we all have ready and nearly constant access to soap and water, and that alone slows down the spread of all kinds of diseases. Antibiotics are the other amazing weapon in our arsenal against disease. They didn't exist in 1918.

The real danger would not be from a disease that's contagious and kills quickly. We can actually contain those pretty readily. But something that's very contagious and takes a long time to show symptoms and even longer to kill is a much worse threat. What does that remind you of?

[Bridget Burke]

17. I believe soap & water existed in 1919.

Also, antibiotics have no effect of virus.

Somebody mentioned that thousands die from influenza every year. Is that really OK? What about some more serious research to prevent these mere thousands of deaths? The knowledge might be useful when something worse mutates. Of course, many of the deaths might be in poorer countries--so that's OK, too?

It might take some government funding to do this. The pharmaceutical companies are far too busy researching & advertising the latest cures for fatties to be bothered.

[Whoa_Nelly]

25. Antivirals do have an effect

as opposed to antibitotics having no effect. Antiviral meds are available, that when taken early in the onset, can dramatically decrease the effect of flu.

[Bridget Burke]

37. Antibiotics had been mentioned, not antivirals

How much do antivirals cost? Will they be available to everybody?

[Whoa_Nelly]

39. Yes, there are antiviral meds available

<snip>
Genetic sequencing of A(H5N1) virus samples from human cases in Vietnam and Thailand show antiviral resistance to amantadine and rimantadine, two of the antiviral drugs commonly used for influenza. The remaining two antivirals (oseltamavir and zanamavir) should still be effective against this strain of H5N1.

http://www.governmentguide.com/govsite.adp?bread=*Main&url=http%3A//www.governmentguide.com/ams/clickThruRedirect.adp%3F55076483%2C16920155%2Chttp%3A//www.cdc.gov/

Info:

Brand Name: Tamiflu Tamiflu
(or oseltamivir)
Generic Name: oseltamivir
Drug Class: ANTIVIRALS

http://www.rxlist.com/cgi/rxlist.cgi?drug=oseltamavir&x=5&y=8


Brand Name: Relenza Relenza
(or zanamivir)
Generic Name: zanamivir
Drug Class: ANTIVIRALS - TREATMENT OF INFLUENZA A & B

http://www.rxlist.com/cgi/rxlist.cgi?drug=zanamavir&imageField.x=59&imageField.y=4

[Occulus]

93. SHOULD still be effective?

Have they tested them against this strain? I'll not trust it unless they have.

[NickB79]

54. Cost

If the antivirals used to treat HIV are any indication, a hell of a lot! Someone with HIV can spend up to $30,000 per year on medication just to stay alive. Even if it was only 1/10 that price, how many people outside the US and Europe can afford spending thousands of dollars per family?

[Whoa_Nelly]

41. What do soap and water do

for airborne viruses? Avian flu is secreted from the eyes and nasal passages of poultry, and found in their excretement. Human-to-human transmission is being investigated for skin contact and airborne pathogenic transmission as is suspected in the family that has had three deaths of the four infected after one member contracted the flu.

More deaths attributed to avian flu
Feb 2, 2004

<snip>
The WHO said two members of a family in Thai Binh Province, Vietnam, might have acquired avian flu from other family members. The agency is investigating respiratory illness in a 31-year-old man, his two younger sisters, and his 28-year-old wife.

Both the man and the two sisters died, but the wife fully recovered, the agency said. Test results over the weekend confirmed H5N1 influenza in the sisters, but neither the man nor his wife was tested.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/hot/avianflu/news/feb0204avian.html

[SheilaT]

71. I know that soap and water existed in 1918.

I'm not totally stupid. But they weren't everywhere as they are today, and lots of people still lived without running water, or without hot water.

And I know perfectly well that antibiotics aren't themselves useful against viruses, but they are useful against secondary kinds of infections.

About 40,000 people die each year in this country from the effects of influenza. You're shocked? This shouldn't be breaking news to you. It was mentioned more than once in the many threads about the flu back in the fall. Mostly it's older people who get pneumonia and just succumb. More rarely it's younger people.

In 1918 what was so shocking (as mentioned by others here) was that young people in the prime of life died. The reason they died and not older folks, was that a similar A-type flu had been around about 40 or 50 years earlier, and the survivors of that kind of flu had enough immunity that for the most part they didn't get sick.

Influenza is actually a fascinating disease and I've read a fair amount about it.

[Occulus]

89. Interesting.

I noticed you gave a figure of four to five decades between serious outbreaks. Would that mean we're due for a new one?

Immunity is fascinating in general. One related question: is there any one thing regarding their function that all viruses (virii?) share?

note- virii: I've seen the word used before for the plural; is this correct?

[dansolo]

76. It isn't the flu alone that kills

The flu allows for opportunistic bacterial infections to occur, like pneumonia. A lot of flu deaths are attributed to this. Those can be helped with antibiotics.

[Snow]

31. Okay, I give up...

"something that's very contagious and takes a long time to show symptoms and even longer to kill" Hmmm, first though is tuberculosis, but, ooops, that's not very contagious. What else? Ummmm, measles can take a coupla weeks before showing symptoms, then another coupla weeks to kill. And it's pretty damn contagious. And if your diet is deficient in certain vitamins, measles becomes a very much nastier disease....sort of a Gaia reflex, I guess. Smallpox doesn't work, because you aren't infectious until after symptoms have appeared, and the symptoms are so harsh that you're pretty much knocked flat. I dunno - I give up....

on edit: Wait, wait - plague can fit that profile. Oh, no dammit! Bubonic plague doesn't transmit person-to-person, and while septecemic or pneumonic plague do, with those you're killed so fast that it's tough to transmit. Curses!

[SheilaT]

72. AIDS

It can take years for the symptoms to be obvious. And years longer to kill.

Didn't mean to be obtuse. I honestly thought it would be obvious to all what I meant.

[snoochie]

59. AIDS (nt)

[Snow]

61. BZZZZZTTTT! Wrong! AIDS is not highly contagious,

in fact it's pretty darn difficult to transmit. Last time I looked, there have been no instances of transmission within a household where there is an infected kid - and there would've been if this were highly contagious.

[SheilaT]

73. You're right about AIDS

not being very contagious. I stand corrected. But imagine a highly contagious disease that takes a long time -- months, maybe years -- to show symptoms or to kill. That's what we need to be afraid of.

Ebola is an example of a disease that's held up as the potential killer of all humanity. But because it kills very quickly it tends to die out very quickly, even though upwards of 90 percent of those who get it die. They simply die too quickly to infect too many people.

One reason chicken pox is still out there is that it's highly contagious and takes two to three weeks from exposure to outbreak of the blisters. And it's most contagious in the two or three days before those blisters appear. So it keeps on circulating.

The time lag from exposure to full-blown disease and the period of contagiousness are the two most important things that determine how readily anything can spread. If you're hanging out with someone who seems perfectly healthy it's natural to assume you won't get something nasty from them. Unfortunately, that's not always the case.

[Snow]

75. But Ebola is also not even medium contagious -

it's another of these transmitted-by-bodily-fluids sort of diseases. It's not the quickness of the death that saves us, it's the low infectivity. The Associated Press, whenever it writes an article on Ebola, describes it as 'highly infectious'. I've written irritated letters to them, to no effect. And conversely, chickenpox is still out there not only because it's super-highly-infectious, but also because it has a very low mortality rate.

We have a long history in popular culture of confusing frightening disease with highly contagious disease - AIDS is the contemporary example; biblical leprosy is an excellent historical example, since leprosy is a) scary b) damn near impossible to transmit.

[SheilaT]

78. Ebola is highly contagious

if you come in contact with bodily fluids.

Some of the initial outbreaks were fueled by re-using needles. Many family members of victims got it because of what's coyly referred to as "funerary practices" which means a thorough cleansing of the body and all body cavities. Think about it.

If you were stuck by a needle that had already stuck someone with it, if you cleaned out bodily cavities of someone who died from it, you probably got it. That's highly contagious. Just not airborne contagion. And the death rate was appalling.

Laurie Garrett's book The Coming Plague which is now ten years old, details this quite nicely.

[Snow]

79. And some of the earliest outbreaks were hospital-based -

but a highly contagious disease, to my way of thinking, should be easier to transmit than by exchange of bodily fluids. This is not a disease that can ever cause major outbreaks, and Laurie got it wrong - the plague still hasn't come. We had a bit of a discussion about this, and while her science was for the most part excellent, she way overestimated the capability of something transmitted in this fashion to move through a population. As long as it can't be vectored, which requires being able to reproduce in a vector's gut, it cannot result in major epidemics threatening anything like a significant portion of the population.

[depakid]

83. Yet only ethnically and regionally

Had Ebola Reston (which went aerosol) been virulent, that could have proven to have been a nightmare in the DC metropolitan area.

[Occulus]

94. Chicken pox seems to me to be

an example of a perfectly evolved virus. It just... stays. Its genetic code appears to be invulnerable; it will always be with us- at least until we find a blanket virus cure that also removes the virus from your system. Hmmmm... Very advanced nanotechnology could do that.... hmmmmmm.....

What really scares me is if chicken pox could mutate into something like flu someday. Talk about a control on human population...

oh, by the way... any natural, Gaia-created control on our population is bound to be unpleasant for those involved. Just an observation.

[depakid]

108. There's a vaccine for Chicken Pox now!

and from what I've read (which isn't too much) it's somewhere in the range of 70 to 90 percent effective in children, though it's still an open question as to whether it boosts immunity against shingles in older adults.

Chicken pox was always something of a right of passage when I was a kid, and nothing parents got too concerned about- but even so, it's something to ask your primary care physician about- especially if you've never had it yourself.

[Occulus]

119. Oh, I've had it

I have a pockmark scar in the exact center of my forehead as a reminder.

Yes, we do have a vaccine, and it just keeps going and going and going all the same.

[Nihil]

20. Hmmm ... why wait to catch it? Be an "Early Adopter"!

I mean, if the government says people should be vaccinated then let's
just go for it - don't worry about aerial transmission doubts, just
got for the intravenous injection of experimental vaccines ...

Are you kidding?

People get sick from the existing vaccines and they've been around
for a while. Do people really think that vaccines that are only
just being developed will provide benefits for healthy people?

OK ... let me rephrase that ... does anyone out there who is a field
tester for Microsoft products think that Windows 2005 is reliable yet?

We have tort reform, we have exclusion from responsibility for pharms,
... do we have volunteers for vaccine testing? Umm ... "FLU! PANIC!
1918! PANDEMIC! MILLIONS!" ... ah, yes, we have volunteers!

Nihil

[Snow]

32. People do not get sick from flu from flu vaccines -

those are dead viruses. Dead viruses can't make you sick with flu.

[dansolo]

77. The nasal flu vaccines are not dead viruses

The new nasal flu vaccines are live, but weakened strains. They suggest you stay away from any at-risk people for three weeks after getting the vaccine.

[Fovea]

106. Safe vaccines...

http://www.whale.to/vaccines/gbs.htm

[Snow]

112. You'll need a lot better sources than whale

if you're going to try and argue successfully with me about vaccines. That place is complete balderdash, with a healthy helping of far right-wing absurdity. There's no science there.

Besides, I didn't say anything about the safety of flu vaccine - I stated that you couldn't get flu from it because the virus is dead (except in the case someone pointed out, of the mist vaccine).

[Neshanic]

58. What about the "Swine Flu" mass innoculations in 1975-76

I remeber this as clearly as yesterday. Watching TV, Senior in HS and Walter Cronkite's top story is the coming Swine Flu pandemic.

Since this flu has been reported to have a tenuous relation to the Bird Flu, isn't the shot I got then help at all?

Did anyone else get that shot?

[SheilaT]

74. There's a lot of difference of opinion

about who should get flu shots. Personally, I never get them. I'm healthy as the proverbial horse and at my age (a mere 55) I don't consider myself needing them.

Other people more appropriately should get the shots. Still others shouldn't. The decision needs to be based on individual circumstances.

And I, too, remember the swine flu thing, and thought back then that the danger was overstated.

[Snow]

80. Yup, and I had just started epidemiolgy school at that point -

I don't remember what type that flu strain was, though - this is an H5N1 strain as you're doubtless aware, and even an H type vaccination woill help you some, although I don't think anyone really knows about how long the vaccines stay protective. I'd bet pretty long, though.

[SoCalDem]

21. Diseases have always been with us, and will always be..

REPORTING the deaths is what has changed.. Think about it..

HEADLINE:

"6 children died in Viet Nam of bird flu"

America is in "scare mode" and they literally search the world for things to slap in the headlines to scare us..

Is bird flu a danger?? To some people, yes.. But is it any scarier than malaria in Africa?? Aids anywhere?..

Dysentery probably kills more people worldwide than anything else, and it's TOTALLY preventable/curable..

The whole world has gone into ChickenLittle frenzies..

[Occulus]

28. And what if

HIV nutated into an airborne pathogen? What then?

Ever read The Stand? That's what's really being discussed here.

[Snow]

81. HIV seems to require multiple large doses for infection to occur

people with infected partners who don't take precautions sometimes never convert, but usually take quite some time to convert. That's not a sign of a virus that would spread particularly well as an air-borne bug.

[Occulus]

90. This is true?

Can you share a link to something showing that? I'd be interested, from a personal standpoint.

And a question: "That's not a sign of a virus that would spread particularly well as an air-borne bug."

With a virus that's already known to mutate, how is this precluded as a capability of the virus? I'm just curious; you gave info I hadn't yet heard in your post.

[Snow]

111. Okay, I'll work on it -

most of that is in the AIDS/HIV literature from the mid to late 80's, although there're still a few pieces coming out. Give me a coupla days. If you're feeling ambitious, go to PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi
and search on HIV transmission.
In fact, I'll go look - hang on....

Well, the first few pages concentrate on African problems, and most articles seem to be about vertical transmission - either in-utero or through breast milk. But here's an article, something like 6 pages into the search (the search came up with over 1,000 pages) that looks interesting:

J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2004 Jan 1;35(1):89-92. Related Articles, Links

Estimation of annual HIV transmission rates in the United States, 1978-2000.

Holtgrave DR.

Rollins School of Public Health, Center for AIDS Research, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Room 540, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA. [e-mail]

The HIV/AIDS epidemic in the United States generally has been characterized by AIDS case incidence and AIDS-associated death rates; in a more limited fashion, the epidemic has also been described by AIDS prevalence; population-specific HIV prevalence; and HIV incidence statistics. However, HIV transmission rate information (i.e., the rate of transmission from persons living with HIV to HIV-seronegative persons) has received relatively little attention. The purpose of the present paper is to estimate the annual HIV transmission rate (from HIV-seropositive to HIV-seronegative persons) in the United States for the time period 1978-2000 and to discuss the practical utility of the findings. Using as input annual AIDS-associated deaths and HIV incidence (both variables, especially the latter, contain some element of uncertainty), the model described here finds that HIV transmission rates have dropped dramatically in the United States since the beginning of the epidemic and stayed approximately between 4.00-4.34% during the 1990s. This implies a programmatic success in that for more than roughly 95% of persons living with HIV in any given year, no HIV transmission occurs. Research is urgently needed to fully understand the circumstances that allow the remaining instances of HIV transmission to take place; moreover, serostatus-appropriate HIV-related services are needed to disrupt these remaining instances of transmission.

PMID: 14707798

And here's some hypothesizing about the origins of the epidemic that makes a lot of sense to me:

AIDS Res Hum Retroviruses. 2003 Dec;19(12):1071-8. Related Articles, Links

Emergence of the HIV type 1 epidemic in the twentieth century: comparing hypotheses to evidence.

Gisselquist D.

West Governor Road, Hershey, Pennsylvania 17033, USA. [e-mail]

The existence of multiple groups of HIV-1 and HIV-2 suggests that zoonotic transmissions of SIV have occurred at a low rate for centuries. Hence, an increase in the rate of human-to-human transmission may be necessary and sufficient to explain the emergence of HIV as an epidemic in the twentieth century. Three common hypotheses to explain accelerated transmission are (1) social changes accelerated sexual transmission, (2) health care changes accelerated parenteral transmission, and (3) serial passaging adapted HIV for persistent infection and sexual transmission. These hypotheses can be compared to a range of evidence. Temporal and geographic discontinuities in HIV epidemic growth are not easily explained by supposed increases in sexual transmission over time. Large historic changes in sexual transmission are hard to explain based on weak evidence associating HIV prevalence in African communities with differences in sexual behavior. On the other hand, documented iatrogenic outbreaks show high rates of parenteral transmission. The distribution of hepatitis C virus infections and the history of multiinjection treatment for trypanosomiasis in Central Africa suggest widespread parenteral transmission of blood-borne viruses during 1920-1940, coinciding in time and place with the early HIV epidemic. This suggests an important role for parenteral transmission in the early spread of HIV. Further research could improve our understanding of the early HIV epidemic.

PMID: 14709242

[Snow]

34. It's ironic that DU panicked en masse over CJD & Mad Cows, but

also en masse poo-poos warnings of flu outbreaks. I would hope the same people who were claiming they'd never go near hamburger again aren't the same ones accusing pharmacy firms of pumping flu vaccine. For instance, DevilsAdvocateNZ, I hope you're being consistent on these issues.....:hi:

[Devils Advocate NZ]

105. Mad Cow? All I can say is - PASS THE BEEF!

I'm still waiting for the tens of thousands who were supposed to die in the UK...

[gulfcoastliberal]

44. I Caught the '97 HK Bird Flu

And I completely understand how the flu can kill after that experience. I was 21 at the time, and I felt as though I would really die. Every second felt like an hour, and the incredible discomfort was horrible. It lasted about 7-8 days and I felt weak for a couple of weeks afterward. I am not surprised those 20-something year old Vietnamese kids died after contracting this horrible disease. If you look at the historical records of flu pandemics, we are overdue for one.

[Minstrel Boy]

47. People often don't understand what it can do until they get it.

I caught a milder strain in 1989 and I've never been as sick in my life. I could imagine dying from it, and at its worst I didn't care if I did.

We should stop calling it "the flu," which sounds like a bad cold, and show it some respect and address it by its proper name, influenza.

[SoCalDem]

45. Jam cities full of poor people..offer little or no education

or adequate health care.. stir lightly, and you have a recipe for all kinds of nasty things..

[mouse7]

50. Wouldn't 700,000 worldwide influenza deaths be almost average?

I don't want to dismiss bird flu as a threat, but if you look at the stats, wouldn't 700,000 deaths worldwide for a year for flu be pretty average? influenza kills a LOT of people every year.

It might be a little above average, but not hugely so. SARS was just a vastly over-hyped fear-fear event. 700 deaths for a virus is basically statistically insignificant.

[Whoa_Nelly]

51. 700,000 is a lot of people

<snip>
In annual influenza epidemics 5-15% of the population are affected with upper respiratory tract infections. Hospitalization and deaths mainly occur in high-risk groups (elderly, chronically ill). Although difficult to assess, these annual epidemics are thought to result in between three and five million cases of severe illness and between 250 000 and 500 000 deaths every year around the world. Most deaths currently associated with influenza in industrialized countries occur among the elderly over 65 years of age.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/2003/fs211/en/

The avian influenza is affecting all age groups, and, if not reigned in quickly, has a huge potential for impact on global health.

[mouse7]

68. Yes, but certainly not the earth-shattering pandemic described

I don't want to belittle the suffering cause by bad flu outbreaks, but there's a big difference between saying the avian flu could be twice as bad as an average flu outbreak and "1000 times worse than SARS."

The 1918 Flu epidemic killed 40 million people. A little perspective would seem to be in order.

[depakid]

60. Differences between SARS & Avian Influenza

What had public health officials so concerned over SARS (and part of the reason for the media hype) was that it was a brand new pathogen. It took many weeks to determine what it was (a corona virus) or how it spread. This fear of the unknown is perfectly understandable and shouldn't have surprised anyone, even if as it turned out, the disease wasn't much more virulent than a nasty strain of Influenza A. The fact is that there isn't any efficacious treatment for SARS- none of the known antivirals work, and there's still no vaccine, although the first human trials are now underway in China.

Moreover, corona viruses (including FIP, which killed my little kitten last year) are peculiar in that they are very hardy and "survive" for long periods of time outside of their host. Most viruses dessicate and "die" within minutes, but SARS can remain viable on handrails, doorknobs, you name it- for weeks. In the case of FIP, my vet advised me not to get another cat for at least six months- not that I would have anyway, watching him die (and he knew he was dying) really broke my heart.

The H5N1 variant of Avian Influenza is an entirely different and potentially MUCH more devastating pathogen- and its sitting in a huge reservoir of fetid slums and rural farms all over South East Asia. It's already jumped the species barrier- and make no mistake, it's highly virulent. Although our resident epidemiologist would hasten to add that the sample size is small (last time I looked, the total number of confirmed cases was 14) 11 of those patients are dead.

No one knows yet whether human to human transmission has occurred, but that's probably elementary. Influenza mutates freely, easily and often. That's why you need to get a flu shot every year- and why this year's shot didn't build antigens for the Fujian strain- by the time the vaccines made it to the market, the virus had genetically "drifted." So the risk that we'll see a highly contagious H5N1 strain is VERY real and if it breaks out within the next year or so, an effective vaccine could not be mass produced in time to thwart a global pandemic. (Nature's sense of irony comes into play here- the usual method of producing flu vaccinations is via chicken embryos- but of course bird flu would kill them, so less effective "dead" virus must be used).

So what to do about it? As an MPH student, I've given this some thought. Aside from the ongoing international efforts to contain the disease and cull potentially infected poultry stocks, we need to determine which of the anti-virals are most effective and put together emergency stockpiles. Now. What we have on hand would be depleted very quickly in a major outbreak. Furthermore, since this class of drugs is very expensive, the pharmaceutical industry will probably have to sacrifice some of their intellectual property rights- controversial (at least from the Republican point of view) but necessary if we're to prepare responsibly.

In addition, the world's healthcare systems need to have contingency plans in place to treat large numbers of people quickly. This presents a monumental challenge, as anti-viral treatment is only effective within 48 of the onset of symptoms. After that, people die.

Now, before anyone accuses me of being an alarmist, let me say that the risk of a pandemic is relatively small. It's probably not going to happen- this time. But it's unforgivably stupid not to take serious action when the potential consequences are tens of millions of people dead in a matter of months.

[Snow]

62. Very good post - can't pick any arguments with you over it...

the only thing I have to add is that I had a grad student who was head of a state bioterrorism lab. For his course project he ran simulations of how the local health care/delivery system would handle a major flu outbreak, basing his numbers on the 1918, 1957, and 1968 (I probably have the last two years wrong, but you know the ones I'm talking about) pandemics, taking the figures for spread, etc from those. And the results were pretty bad. A major part of the problem that doesn't often occur to people is that health care workers, too, get sick. So he worked up the simulation, published it locally, held a conference or two, but other than realizing what a disaster it would be there was really not much we could do.

[depakid]

66. Your grad student was right

even with every imaginable provider from home healthcare workers to county mental health clinics administering treatments, we wouldn't have anywhere near the capacity to handle an epidemic of this magnitude- and if I might add to your point about frontline caregivers becoming ill themselves, that's not the only issue. Many of them may simply refuse to show up to work out of fear. We saw glipses of this in Toronto last year when nurses were threatening to (and some actually did) walk out in the midst of the SARS outbreak.

If something like the previous epidemics you mention ever did hit America today, I shudder to imagine the hysteria. We'd probably be well advised at the very least to shut down schools in affected areas and cancel any large public gatherings. Beyond that, again, I sudder to imagine.

[Occulus]

100. Do some people have a natural immunity

to influenza?

[depakid]

107. Not that I'm aware of

although it's certainly possible. Human immune systems present an immensely complicated set of varying individual interactions that sometimes go awry and turn on themselves. Knowing how and why is sort of the holy grail of medicine.

[SheilaT]

109. It seems to me,

based simply on casual observation over my lifetime, that people vary tremendously in their natural immunity to things. Not completely sure why this is.

Long term (2 years plus) of breastfeeding seems to boost immunity, perhaps because all that time the babies are ingesting mom's immune factors.

Smokers, in my observation, seem to pick up colds and flus more readily than non smokers.

Some people swear by vitamin C to ward off colds.

My two sons NEVER got the kiddie illnesses that made the rounds of their classmates when they were in pre and elementary school. But they both also have an auto-immune condition called alopecia areata, which causes hair loss, and many who have aa notice they don't pick up the common colds and flus that others around them get.

Also, our immune system is designed to shift over our lifetime. When young, we need to be exposed to many things so as to prime the immune system so that later on we can be well when exposed to other things. If the immune system is overloaded when young it isn't primed correctly. If underexposed, that may lead to things like asthma. It's a complicated balancing act. A good reference is Yellow Fever, Black Goddess: The Co-evolution of People and Plagues by Christopher Wills.

[Occulus]

122. I wonder if

the condition your sons are 'afflicted' with is actually an evolving immunity to the two most common communicable illnesses, the tradeoff being for some reason hair loss.

It's an interesting thought, at least. Are there detrimental effects aside from hair loss that result from aa?

Another interesting thing to think about. Could plagues be half of a natural system to make living things better and stronger over time?

If we eventually cure all diseases, won't we be, in effect, sealing our own doom by, over time, removing the need for a strong immune system, and then all of a sudden BAM, we're all wiped out?

Lots of difficult and yet fascinating questions.

[Snow]

113. Plenty of people - infact probably everybody - have acquired

immunity - but those dang shifts catch you, don't they. Although periodically flu epidemics come around and a certain age group doesn't get it because they already had that variation 50 years ago when they were kids. But nobody has immunity from birth to anything that I can think of, other than that you usually have a functioning immune system.

[Bonobo]

67. Nice post.

It's refreshing to see that some people know their science. Unlike other alarmists on this thread with secret sources and an overactive imagination from reading dime-store novels.

[Occulus]

99. Thank you VERY much,

and thanks again for pointing out that it might not be The Big One, THIS time. We all need to be reminded that this will happen again and again until enough of us die out that the source pool is destroyed, unless we change our social practices.

[rodbarnett]

125. Avian Flu in Delaware : Chicken kill aimed at Del. threat

<snip>

State Veterinarian H. Wesley Towers said Sunday that 12,000 chickens on a farm where the flu was detected last week were destroyed Saturday. Birds on 12 farms within 2 miles were tested Saturday and Sunday. As of Sunday afternoon, Towers said he had not been informed that any more infected birds had been found, though results from tests conducted Sunday won't be available until this morning.

Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and South Korea have suspended imports of U.S. poultry to prevent the spread of the virus, according to wire reports. Hong Kong banned the import of live birds and poultry from Delaware only.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2004-02-09-birdflu_x.htm